Learning to Lead IV: sucess in failure? An ADWD Daenerys and Jon reread project

[BabyMeraxes]

It's really interesting to see the break down of Melisandre's powers and presence in this book, especially coming off Swords, where she's presented as an incredibly powerful force. In Swords, we're told that Melisandre is unaffected by the hazards of the North ("'You're not cold, My Lady?"he asked. She laughed. "Never."') thanks to the protection of the Lord of Light. We've seen her birth shadow babies, we've seen her burn of eagles with her brain, we've seen her seduce an entire retinue of nobles and knights. But in Dragons, we get a glimpse at the sausage being made, and Mel's importance and place and power suffers for it.

What's interesting is that in Dragons we get some serious foils for Melisandre in the forms of Moqorro and Bennaro (and to a lesser extent Thoros in Crows, although Thoros always seemed pretty D-List when placed next to Mel). Where Mel's prophecies are muddy and incorrectly interpreted, Benerro's major prophecy in the book (the Selaesori Qhoran reaching Mereen) is clear and imminent. Where Melisandre's fire sorcery manifests as little more than parlor tricks, Moqorro serves us Victarion Necromancyfist. Added to this is the fact that most of the cities across the Narrow Sea respect, if not revere R'hllor.

After Dragons, how do you guys think red magic will evolve, or retrogress, in the next two books? Is it still something to be feared, or will it fizzle out like Melisandre? Has Mel fizzled, or is she still a legit threat?

[Doctor Zeus]

A thought I had on why Jon fails to see the assasination coming, is that despite Jon's pretty astute observations about people's characters, motivations, and emotions he isn't exceptional at analyzing how they will act, and tends to rely on how he would act in given certain situations.

For this, I point to when Mance tells Mel (I think) that Jon Snow believes the wildlings will turn to Tormund instead of say, Sixskins etc.. Jon in the end does rely on presuppositions on character to much; he can see Tormund as a leader because he is trustworthy. Parallel that to the NW, he see's them as loyal by and large (I'm going to assert that he doesn't see Slynt as a member of NW yet) so refuses to believe that whatever else they will ever truly endager his life.

[Faint]

All this speculation is off-topic and for a later Jon chapter Faint.

But again, somewhat off-topic I assume. This is just about Jon's current chapter.

I'm referring specifically to this chapter. I'm not a believer at all of the spur of the moment assassination theory. I think the breaking point was reached in this chapter. Meaning, I think Bowen Marsh and company were plotting to kill Jon from here on out.

Incidentally, why is everyone focusing on my throw away comment about Melisandre? There are mountains of evidence outside Melisandre's warning that Jon is privy to (and from the indications in this latest chapter, that he is well aware of) that would tell him the same thing.

Put another way, I have the same exact viewpoint as Jon since he is the POV character we've been given at the Wall. And, at this point in the story, while I was reading this chapter for the first time, I realized that Jon's own men would attempt to assassinate him.

The question is: why doesn't Jon realize the same thing?

[Spiderweaves]

Jon's weakness in his leadership has been in his inability to win opposition in the Night's Watch to his side. The dissenters are in the minority, but they are very loud in their disapproval. In Jon VIII, Jon recalls how Mormont was brought down by his own men. While Jon is aware of this fact, I think his clear weakness is in fully realizing that a loud, dissenting minority can bring him down as well and he's relying too much on the tradition of brothers following the Lord Commander regardless of opinion.

---

Does Jon's enjoyment in his job assist him, blind him or a litle bit of both?

_____

I think Jon's naivete might undo some of the benefit his enjoyment brings him. He may watch his followers closely for their behavior, but I agree that he believes way too much in his Brothers' commitment to a Lord Commander.

And as others suggest, the rigid, black-and-white ethos of the NW seem more and more ill-suited for Jon. The sooner he gets away from it, the better.

[Tagganaro]

I'm referring specifically to this chapter. I'm not a believer at all of the spur of the moment assassination theory. I think the breaking point was reached in this chapter. Meaning, I think Bowen Marsh and company were plotting to kill Jon from here on out.

Incidentally, why is everyone focusing on my throw away comment about Melisandre? There are mountains of evidence outside Melisandre's warning that Jon is privy to (and from the indications in this latest chapter, that he is well aware of) that would tell him the same thing.

Put another way, I have the same exact viewpoint as Jon since he is the POV character we've been given at the Wall. And, at this point in the story, while I was reading this chapter for the first time, I realized that Jon's own men would attempt to assassinate him.

The question is: why doesn't Jon realize the same thing?

Why? I don't know or understand how you can arrive at that conclusion. Why does "dissatisfaction" equal assasination attempt? What line has Jon irretrievably crossed here?

From Jon's POV, we know Bowen Marsh and a few others abstained from appearing at the wedding. We know that Jon knows, and we can only assume that Jon knows why...i.e. same argument Bowen has been making since the beginning of the book. That's all we know. That's all he knows. Why would this wedding be crossing a line of any sort, when compared to the enormity of allowing all the wildlings through or taking those very same wildlings and planning an attack on Winterfell?

And in my opinion, it is very clear the assassination attempt is a spur of the moment thing. Assuming Direwolves have some kind of prophetic ability to sense plans and plots (which I think is a fair assumption based on Grey Wind/RW), Ghost does not react at all to Bowen Marsh before the events of the letter, just a few hours before the assassination attempt. And again, why kill Jon after he has already allowed all the wildlings through? Why kill him in plain sight of all his wildlings? I don't know, nothing about that shady and weak assassination attempt screams "I have been planning this for a while".

[Tagganaro]

It's really interesting to see the break down of Melisandre's powers and presence in this book, especially coming off Swords, where she's presented as an incredibly powerful force. In Swords, we're told that Melisandre is unaffected by the hazards of the North ("'You're not cold, My Lady?"he asked. She laughed. "Never."') thanks to the protection of the Lord of Light. We've seen her birth shadow babies, we've seen her burn of eagles with her brain, we've seen her seduce an entire retinue of nobles and knights. But in Dragons, we get a glimpse at the sausage being made, and Mel's importance and place and power suffers for it.

What's interesting is that in Dragons we get some serious foils for Melisandre in the forms of Moqorro and Bennaro (and to a lesser extent Thoros in Crows, although Thoros always seemed pretty D-List when placed next to Mel). Where Mel's prophecies are muddy and incorrectly interpreted, Benerro's major prophecy in the book (the Selaesori Qhoran reaching Mereen) is clear and imminent. Where Melisandre's fire sorcery manifests as little more than parlor tricks, Moqorro serves us Victarion Necromancyfist. Added to this is the fact that most of the cities across the Narrow Sea respect, if not revere R'hllor.

After Dragons, how do you guys think red magic will evolve, or retrogress, in the next two books? Is it still something to be feared, or will it fizzle out like Melisandre? Has Mel fizzled, or is she still a legit threat?

There's a lot of speculation about one of 2 things taking place here. One is either the magic of the Wall/the Old Gods are blocking Mel's ability (which is based on Thoros not being able to see anything because his vision was blocked near the weirwood).

2 is that Bloodraven is trolling Melisandre here. It's clear that he sees her at one point and is probably aware of her existence at the very least. I could totally see him screwing with her.

[Winterfellian]

Just some inputs on this chapter. First, I agreed with those who posted that this is Jon at his best. The wedding to Alys solved so many of his problems in one single stroke (got rid of the Thenns, gained new men for the watch, mend Stark and Kasrstark relations...) Is a shame that we weren't prior to the thought process that led him to this decision.The way he tackled all this remind me of something Littlefinger said to Ned about how he let his precious honor work against him because he became paralyzed by it. Jon might value honor and his father but unlike Ned he doesn't let it get in his way to achieve what he wants. I think is important to evaluate this because wee sometimes see people talk about the "plot gifts" and so. I don't want to open this debate so I want to point out that is what a character do with this so called plot gifts that's important.

Yes, Alys arrival is an opportunity, but the important thing is that is an opportunity Jon took. He didn't let his honor or traditions inmobilize him from accomplishing something that might prove a long term solution.

About the Florents, I find it hard to believe there are people condemning Jon for lashing out at Axell Florent after he compared Val to a horse that needed breaking. Jon's reaction was a lot calmer than I would have expected. I think there are times when both Jon and Dany have outbursts that might not be "politically correct" but where the situation was so delicate that by not holding their ground they stand to loose more. This is an example of this the same as when Dany refused to wash Hizdahr's feet in public. Both weren't like I said politically correct moves but by giving way they standed to loose the respect and status among their subjects. You can't make everybodu happy. At the end of the day the respect of the Night Watch and the wildings (there is no evidence that this 2 groups resented Jon for calling of Axell) is way more important than that of Axell and Selyse. Not to mention that unlike Stannis and Jon Axell's intentions to marry Val were not about integration (which is what the Alys-Styr wedding was) but about a means to an end- gaining northern lands and status.

Regarding Jon not foreseing his own murder, while I ado agree that he fails to take into account just how powerful a dissenting group can be I don't know what else he could have done to put a stop to it. First, I believe there are parallels between Jon's attack and that of Mormont. Both had a dissenting faction to contend with that apparently ignored. Remember Mormont once told Jon that men at the watch are always complaining so Jon doing this is not wholly out of character. Apparently Mormont kept tabs tabs on this men but never acted just like Jon.Jon's mistake is that he didn't realize that due to the changes he's introducing Mormont's policies can't really be applied to his situation. Although due to his limitations am not sure what he could have done otherwise so any input is appreciated.

In Mormont's case we know that this group did plan to murder him although we don't have any proof is the same way for Jon but at the end of the day the act ended up being a spur of the moment thing, just like it seems to have been the case with Jon. This is something that can't be predicted or prepared for because you never know what may trigger a man to assesinate his LC. It might be Craster refusing them proper food or a mission to the WF. The point is you never know so you had 2 choices: continue doing your own thing trusting in your decisions or let paranoia hinder you and start putting your faith in people like Mel and start seeing enemies at every corner.

What is interesting is that Dany did took an approach similar to this last and it didn't end up working well for her because it ler her to indesicion which in turn ended up in self doubt that hinder her from accomplishing most of what she set up to do at the beggining of the book.

[Arya Targaryen]

Put another way, I have the same exact viewpoint as Jon since he is the POV character we've been given at the Wall. And, at this point in the story, while I was reading this chapter for the first time, I realized that Jon's own men would attempt to assassinate him.

The question is: why doesn't Jon realize the same thing?

I guess the reason is, you are reading a book, written by GRRM and you know characters get killed for less than this. Because we read a book, we expect some major plot twist or whatever by the end of the book.

Jon doesn't know about being "on the last pages of a book, written by GRRM", if you know what I mean. You can easily come to the conclusion something will happen to Jon and having all knowledge about plotlines, cliffhangers and GRRM, it makes it sort of easy to guess right.

And even if he is aware that his men will assassinate him, without knowing more detail he can't exactly do anything against it. Even here, in this topic, there are different opinions about the real reason of the stabbing, how long had it been planned and stuff, and we even have Mel's POV. How could anyone expect Jon to foresee the time and place he's going to be stabbed and prepare for it? The only thing he could have done is to keep Ghost with him - but we know Ghost usually goes out hunting, so he cannot keep him always around. If an assassination is planned they can just wait for the right moment. (+1: Even Mance told him he could kill him easily, because those guards are a joke...)

[Dr. Pepper]

I'm referring specifically to this chapter. I'm not a believer at all of the spur of the moment assassination theory. I think the breaking point was reached in this chapter. Meaning, I think Bowen Marsh and company were plotting to kill Jon from here on out.

Incidentally, why is everyone focusing on my throw away comment about Melisandre? There are mountains of evidence outside Melisandre's warning that Jon is privy to (and from the indications in this latest chapter, that he is well aware of) that would tell him the same thing.

Put another way, I have the same exact viewpoint as Jon since he is the POV character we've been given at the Wall. And, at this point in the story, while I was reading this chapter for the first time, I realized that Jon's own men would attempt to assassinate him.

The question is: why doesn't Jon realize the same thing?

I think it's possible that Marsh and co. had been planning on a way to remove Jon from power, but I think it's unlikely they were planning an assassination attempt. I believe all evidence points to the attempt being spur-of-the-moment.

Jon is very aware that Marsh and co. are unhappy with his leadership. Still, Jon's only reference of an assassination of a Lord Commander is with the Old Bear and from what we know via Jon and Sam's POVs and the Chett prologue, the assassination didn't stem from collective distaste for Old Bear policies. As far as Jon knows, Jeor's assassination was the result of men maddened due to the fight and flee at the Fist. I don't think there's any reason for Jon to believe that his own men - specifically the men he chose to keep at Castle Black - would attempt an assassination. Now, if he'd kept Hewett and Thorne at Castle Black, it would be a bit more unrealistic for him to not consider the possibility but I think that's probably exactly why he sent away Thorne and also why he feels better that Hewett is at Eastwatch (even if he's not happy with him being left in charge).

[Lummel]

Well speaking of people being killed what about this then - a wedding in Westeros in which somebody does not die! Even more shocking this is one of three deathless weddings in ADWD. Is GRRM trying to lure us into a false sense of security and suggest that getting married is a safe thing to do?

And this leads neatly to something that I think we haven't mentioned so far - Onion Soup issues. Jon remembers that they are going to be out of butter by the end of the month (plenty of salt though). The shortage of food is becoming more pressing. And even if Jon's approved loan application does get back to the Iron Bank it is clear that he won't be able to buy food in from the Karstarks who due to a war caused shortage of manpower were not even able to get in all of the harvest.

Note Alys' story about Winter starvation. The last time we heard this story was in AGOT when Old Nan was telling the story of the Last Hero to Bran. But now it's clear that this business of the old men going out 'to hunt' isn't a feature of some ancient folktale but a regular feature of winter life in the North. And what is Jon's reaction? To ask Alys for the her old men and boys. Is this more empathy than sense? What are they going to eat? People on the whole require more nutrition than you can get from a salt lick. Then the chapter ends with the return of Val and the promise of yet more hungry Wildlings coming through the Wall.

With regard to Ser Axell's boorishness - I'm not sure, in a general sense of how one ought to speak of women for sure but in Westerosi terms Val is an anomaly. On the one hand a Princess and thus respectworthy on the other a Wildling and therefore fair game for any man with a sword and a title before his name. The real surprise is cousin Karstark using similar terms to talk about Alys Karstark. What Ser Axell says about Stannis' policy sounds believable, surely Stannis would be seeking to marry his men to leading wildlings if he were at the Wall.

I suppose there are two ways of looking at this. Either you take the view that the Ghiscari Elite and the opposition at the Wall can't be reconciled and so Daenerys and Jon are wasting their time even being courteous to them or that reconciliation is possible and it is worthwhile bending over backwards if it helps achieve peace.

Ragnorak, I'd say that the resolution of an identity crisis is something that both Daenerys and Jon share at the end of their arcs.

[Ragnorak]

Incidentally, why is everyone focusing on my throw away comment about Melisandre?

Probably because her POV was part of the reread and we spent a good bit of time on her relationship and interaction with Jon in his earlier chapters. There was a lot of discussion about Mel and the trappings of power theme and the impression she conveys to Jon as well. Your comment about Mel sort of goes against most of the conclusions from the analysis of those earlier chapters.

@Lummel

I viewed Jon's as more of a fitting into the external world crisis rather than an internal identity crisis but I haven't really put a lot of thought into that aspect. Love to hear more.

[Lummel]

Didn't Butterbumps! start a thread about that recently? Anyhow we have a while to go before we reach the end of our heroes' arcs in this thread.

[Harlaw's Book]

This is a unique chapter. First, I think this is the happiest wedding we've had the chance to read about in the series so far. Did a single person get injured? Even at the Purple Wedding, before it became the Purple Wedding, a Dornishman stabbed someone from the Reach --a setting where everyone was essentially of the same rank and religion, and the wedding took place at the highest level of Westeros. Contrast this with the wedding in this chapter, which is I think one of the most diverse gatherings we've seen in Westeros: Wildings, Watch, Queen's Men, Northern Mountain Clans, Alys, Wun Wun, people from Essos --Mel and Patchface. And this doesn't take into account all the subcultures. However, this is a group that is divided politically, socially, religiously, etc, yet they are able to come together (with Jon being the driving force behind it) and actually have a wedding be a wedding. And everyone who there is treated essentially the same. There isn't a feast outside for the lower ranks. Serving girls dance with knights. A former outlaw dances with the Queen.

The second thing is that this we get to read about a Rh'lor ritual that isn't horrifying.

Yes, there is tension. However, I didn't pick up any tension between the Night's Watch and the Wildings or between the Northmen and the Wildings. Jon notes no one refuses to drink wine. The wedding is proof of Marsh's willful blindness. He refuses to see that it is possible for the Watch and the Wildings to get along. Meanwhile, the Watch and the Wildings are able to play music together; I'd love to read this thread's symbolism experts take on this.

Sidenotes:

As a Top Chef fan, I have to hand it to Hobb for being able to cater a wedding.

I love the scene between Jon and Creegan. For me it really demonstrates how far Jon has come since AGOT.

I wish we could've read more about what happened in the time between the previous chapter and this chapter.

This is the chapter where I think Jon shares a lot of similarities with Daeron II. Is it a coincidence that both the Karstarks and the Martells have sun imagery on their arms?

Not only is this the happiest wedding, but I also think this is the happiest we've seen Jon in a long time. He's able to enjoy food. He is also able to talk about the past without it being painful.

[Winterfellian]

Not only is this the happiest wedding, but I also think this is the happiest we've seen Jon in a long time. He's able to enjoy food. He is also able to talk about the past without it being painful.

I really like this observation. You are right. This is the first time in a long time we have seen him relax enough to the point of even flirt a little.

This is a stark contrast with Danny's feelings in her wedding.

What I find interesting is that Jon arranged this whole wedding and he enjoys himself during it while Dany had her wedding arranged for her and ended up feeling miserable. We see again how sometimes taking a proactive role serves Jon better than taking a passive role does for Dany's

[Harlaw's Book]

One of my professors said that there is empirical evidence supporting that people who bargain over something are much happier than people who don't bargain even if they end up worse off. Bargaining gives people pride and a sense of accomplishment. I think this explains why Alys is a happier bride than Dany.

[HopeForSpring]

Dany's wedding is her own, Jon got to broker someone else's. Dany had to sell herself, Jon got to sell someone else. Yes he had Alys's permission, but what else was she going to do? Poor girl alone in the world in need of protection, sadly, really, no snark there. Alys was prepared to make the best of being a victim with someone she simply disliked less than Creegan. I do sincerely hope they end up happy, I think Jon did try to do his best by her. However, Dany doesn't do being chattel so well anymore, more power to her. Jon gets to show off how smart he is and fix things for Alys, play the hero. Dany's own flesh was on the line unlike Jon's.

I think we see both Jon and Dany make diplomatic errors trying to serve the greater good. I like them both but at this point Dany has more "flesh in the game" literally.

I guess while I liked this chapter, thought Jon was showing himself to be a good guy, enjoyed it when he snarked I kinda had the same - "Really, he isn't establishing true buy-in from all the stakeholders? That's gonna hurt later" that I had with Dany.

And they both feel very isolated, no one who they truly trust. Also a problem.

So yes, this chapter was way more enjoyable than the Dany wedding chapter. It felt less sad because the protagonist of it was feeling a bit more mastery. I don't know that he was feeling better because he was actually more competent, though.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Dany's wedding is her own, Jon got to broker someone else's. Dany had to sell herself, Jon got to sell someone else. Yes he had Alys's permission, but what else was she going to do? Poor girl alone in the world in need of protection, sadly, really, no snark there. Alys was prepared to make the best of being a victim with someone she simply disliked less than Creegan. I do sincerely hope they end up happy, I think Jon did try to do his best by her. However, Dany doesn't do being chattel so well anymore, more power to her. Jon gets to show off how smart he is and fix things for Alys, play the hero. Dany's own flesh was on the line unlike Jon's.

I have to vehemently disagree with how you've worded this. I don't see anything in Alys and Sigorn's wedding that implied "selling" someone off, and Jon doesn't think of himself as "selling off" Alys. Is it a political marriage of necessity, yes. But both parties seem happy or at least satisfied with the arrangement. Alys, as the heir to Karhold, has the upper-hand here, and I think she knows it ("Let him be afraid of me," or whatever it is that she says). While she probably didn't expect to end up in this position, she's going to be proactive about it, accept it and make the best of it — Sigorn seems smitten with her at the very least and she'll probably have him wrapped around her finger in no time. She has a marriage to save herself (and her brother, and Karhold) from her scheming family, and Sigorn becomes assimilated in southern (well, sort of) culture and gains a place for his own people. Seems win-win for both. And if Jon received some tangible compensation for brokering the marriage, I missed it.

Contrast that with Dany, who didn't really take much of an active role in her wedding, aside from the feet-washing thing. She's not being proactive about it; when it's over she pretty passively cedes authority over to her husband.

So who's the chattel here, really? It's not Alys Karstark.

Did Jon marry himself off, no. Imagine the bitching if he had. "OH GOD JON'S GONE AND REALLY BROKEN HIS VOWS!!"

[Faint]

I don't know, nothing about that shady and weak assassination attempt screams "I have been planning this for a while".

I disagree. To me it read as the classical example of assassins biding their time, waiting for an opportune time to strike. Regardless, this issue doesn't really get to the heart of what I said before. I expected Jon to be assassinated half way through the book based only on the knowledge I gleamed in his own POV. Why Jon never seemed to puzzle out the same is what's surprising to me. More generally though, my question is this: why does Jon never formulate a plan to deal with the likes of Bowen Marsh? Does he imagine it will get better? Does he not contemplate that it might get worse? At what point does he think the violation of his oaths will actually break the Night's Watch? Or, put more simply, why does he almost completely ignore this entire matter when it occupies a place at the heart of the question of whether he will continue to rule or not?

Regarding Jon not foreseing his own murder, while I ado agree that he fails to take into account just how powerful a dissenting group can be I don't know what else he could have done to put a stop to it.

I imagine the best course of action was to identify the growing cabal against him and divide them as much as possible; preferably by sending each of them to separate locations.

Your comment about Mel sort of goes against most of the conclusions from the analysis of those earlier chapters.

Yes, you're right. I can't wait until we get to Jon's final chapter when I will be revisiting the issue. Especially the general consensus on this thread that Jon is completely unwilling to become indebted to Melisandre by asking her for help (which, as it happens, is laughingly wrong).

I don't think there's any reason for Jon to believe that his own men - specifically the men he chose to keep at Castle Black - would attempt an assassination.

Just how many more hints does he need? Ten? Twenty more? Would Bowen Marsh walking around with a "I WILL KILL JON SNOW" shirt have done the trick?

[Faint]

With regard to Ser Axell's boorishness . . .

Is it really that unique? I can well imagine Jaime or Tyrion saying something similar, not to mention Robert Baratheon. Theon Greyjoy of course, including almost all of the Ironborn. Ditto Joffrey. And Edmure Tully among men? I think he qualifies as well. In other words, most of the leading men of Westeros. Let's face it: the setting of the story is very much sexist. Jon is the exception, not the norm.

[Dr. Pepper]

Dany's wedding is her own, Jon got to broker someone else's. Dany had to sell herself, Jon got to sell someone else. Yes he had Alys's permission, but what else was she going to do? Poor girl alone in the world in need of protection, sadly, really, no snark there. Alys was prepared to make the best of being a victim with someone she simply disliked less than Creegan. I do sincerely hope they end up happy, I think Jon did try to do his best by her. However, Dany doesn't do being chattel so well anymore, more power to her. Jon gets to show off how smart he is and fix things for Alys, play the hero. Dany's own flesh was on the line unlike Jon's.

I agree with Apple Martini. This is a misunderstanding of the agency Alys exhibited. She didn't have to come to the wall and seek Jon's help. She could have run to Stannis or even to Winterfell and made deals with them that both assured her safety and possibly her brother's life. Roose definitely would have taken the opportunity to bind the Frey's to him more by marrying Alys to one of them and Stannis would have been honor-bound to help in some way considering he has pledged to the Northern forces he's gathered that he will seek justice for the Starks. But Alys went to the wall, specifically to Jon, probably knowing full well that there were hordes of wildlings and that Jon could not actively do anything to return Karhold to her. It's very apparent that she had agency in whether or not to choose to accept the arrangement and she's not in any way acting the victim here. Yes, the match was beneficial to Jon as it fixed a problem he had with Sigorn and the Thenns, but that doesn't take away from the fact that this was something that Alys decided was in her and her brother's best interests and she's so pleased with the aid Jon gave her that she tells him "Karhold remembers." And as we'll see in future chapters, Jon's flesh turned out to be very much on the line.