What Varys Doesn't Say in the Epilogue...

[IronBorn To be WILD]

Hokay, so I'm throwing in my two copper stars in the Aegon argument. So here it goes: the most common argument that Aegon is a fake is the whole "mummer's dragon" thing. I believe he really is Aegon and that mummer's dragon reffers to Aegon as being one of Varys' pawns more than being a fake so mummer's dragon = Varys' dragon. Which would mean that he is real and the reason she should beware him is his superior claim to the throne. She doesnt need to beware him because he's a fake claim but one opposed to her and since she doenst know of him yet it would be reasonable to assume he will take kings landing first and she'll need to face him when she gets to westeros and when she does most likely she'd be inclined to allign herself with him, but since he does have a better claim I can see a struggle emerging betwixt the two. Anyone else think this could be a reaosnable argument?

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

I don't know if that interpretation of the House of the Undying prophecy holds up. First, Daenerys doesn't hear the words "beware the mummer's dragon" or something like that, she sees an image of a fake dragon: "A cloth dragon swayed on poles amidst a cheering crowd." It's hard to see the argument for wordplay when the prophecy came in the form of an image. Second, as has been noted before, this vision is in the "slayer of lies" section, which also seems to indicate that Aegon's claim is false. The Undying put Aegon in the same category as Stannis (fake Azor Ahai) and the stone beast (fake dragon).

Third, the most compelling argument for Aegon being phony is that it explains a lot more. Not just what Varys has been doing recently, but also why he was undermining the Targaryen regime before the rebellion started. It also explains why we have a lot of otherwise irrelevant knowledge about Illyrio's love life and personal background; and why Illyrio cares so much about a throne in a kingdom that's not his own, why he has such oddly tender affection for Aegon when he didn't give two shits about Viserys or Daenerys, and why he's been willing to stake so much on a long-shot scheme that's been in motion for decades.

[shadowbinding shoe]

If Illyrio knows anything about history, he will know that dragon-eggs only brought bad luck and misfortune to those who held them starting with the nation Valyria and going down the line of wannabe Targaryen dragonriders who burned themselves up or worse trying to hatch the eggs.

Giving a dragon egg to Aegon is a surefire method to kill him, especially after he has Dany's unique example to follow.

The reason Dany got 3 (beside the aforementioned bad juju) is that the Targaryen symbol is a 3-headed dragon and they had 3 dragons in Aegon the Conqueror's day. But mainly she got them because you're suppose to bring expensive gifts to fancy weddings or the groom might get antsy and order your head cut off.

[Uncle Impe]

To solve a mystery is to be right about the solution to said mystery, so what you just said is a tautology.

Besides, your whole argument--as wholly wrong-headed as it may be--is irrelevant to the issue. Tyrion's thoughts reveal that he is by no means sure that Aegon is a true Targaryen, so by your logic, he has not solved this plot.

If you have any dialogue of Tyrions casting doubt as to Aegons authenticity as a true targaryen then post it. (I do hope you have more than one sarcastic line vs plenty of other lines that clearly show is quite positive of Aegon's lineage.

"Who better to raise Prince Rhaegar’s infant

son than Prince Rhaegar’s dear friend Jon Connington,

once Lord of Griffin’s Roost and Hand of the King?”

I would say that one un-ambigous statement from Tyrion pretty much sums up his thoughts on the true lineage of Aegon. You are going to have to do better that one sarcastic line vs a myriad of quotes that I can attribute to Tyrion to prove that he knows for sure who Aegon is.

[Uncle Impe]

If the only thing you've got left to say is that "Tyrion doesn't know" != "Tyrion is wrong," then I think we're done.

This is exactly why I discourage people from delving in mundane off the wall theories. Sir you cant even keep track of your own arguments.

It is you who said that since Tryion does not know who Joffrey's real murderer is that it equates to him being wrong, it is you who said that because Tyrion couldnt predict Tywin Lannisters arrival at Blackwater that this is proof that he has been wrong.

Take a deep breath, center yourself and focus on your argument.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

If Illyrio knows anything about history, he will know that dragon-eggs only brought bad luck and misfortune to those who held them starting with the nation Valyria and going down the line of wannabe Targaryen dragonriders who burned themselves up or worse trying to hatch the eggs.

I don't think that's true. Having a dragon egg doesn't bring bad luck. Trying to wake a dragon by baroque methods brings bad luck, and if that's something that Aegon is inclined to do, he'll do it regardless of whether he has a dragon egg. I believe it was Aegon the Unworthy who tried it with wooden dragons, Aerion Brightflame tried it with a jar of wildfire, and Stannis and Melisandre were about to try it by murdering a child. None of those methods require a dragon egg.

Meanwhile, a dragon egg is powerful symbolism and Aegon could use it.

[Uncle Impe]

Uncle Impe:

Um... every chapter in the series is from a character's point of view. The term for this style is "limited third person", defined here as: "Third person limited point of view is a method of storytelling in which the narrator knows only the thoughts and feelings of a single character, while other characters are presented only externally." GRRM does not employ omniscient narration, so GRRM is never "talking directly to you the reader." When GRRM is narrating from Jon Connington's point of view, the 'narrator' only knows what Connington knows,and thus if Connington is wrong about something, the narrator is wrong. The same thing with Theon, and Arya, and so forth. The fact that you don't understand this basic fact about the style of the books is astounding to me.

I have to confess this is complete gibberish to me. I dont know why you have gone off on this tangent because I have said nothing that would lead any one to believe that I have a different understanding of the book.

Could you please cite where I have apparently misunderstood GRRM's writing style and thus prompting this seemingly useless post?

Second, the books establish from very early on that in the world of A Song of Ice and Fire, "people see what they expect to see." Tyrion sees a boy with Valyrian features being treated like a potential ruler, led by a bunch of Westerosi exiles, and he concludes that this may be a Targaryen because that's a natural leap. The same thing no doubt happened with Jon Connington. Except in Connington's case, he also desperately wants a second chance to wipe away the guilt he feels for failing the man he loved, so psychologically he needs Aegon to be the real deal because that's the only chance for redemption he has. And neither of them are comparing Aegon to a photograph of Rhaegar, but against their own (malleable) memories.

There is absolutely nothing in the book that suggests that either John Connington or Tyrion have "malleable" minds. This is something you completely made up with absolutely nothing to back it up. Not from the book. Matter of fact all evidence available to us thus far indicates that Tyrion is one individual in the book with solid mental skills not given to flights of fancy and whimsical logic.

So john Connington is distraught that he failed his king, he decides to adopt some bastard boy spawn of fat Mopatis in a bid to make it up to the dead father. If the boy was feigned it would be most obvious to John Connington of all characters in the book. No sir, it is you who is sees what he wants to see.

Here we go yet again reaching. You are making up psychological profiles because it is indeed you who sees what they want to see. You cant back it up with any facts or textual evidence from the book (which is quite obvious from the lack of quotations or direct references to the text). You expect people to believe your claims not because you can back them up with any credible evidence, not because you can explain the humongous holes in your theories but simply because you postulated it.)

Best example was that rather weak and unsupported response you came back with when asked to make up (not even cite) a plausible way GRRM would bring your theory full circle and link it back to that one instance in the Epilogue where Varys does not use the name Targaryen.

You failed even in that theoretical exercise but instead directed me to some mundane reference to blackfyres...Seriously?

[IronBorn To be WILD]

I don't know if that interpretation of the House of the Undying prophecy holds up. First, Daenerys doesn't hear the words "beware the mummer's dragon" or something like that, she sees an image of a fake dragon: "A cloth dragon swayed on poles amidst a cheering crowd." It's hard to see the argument for wordplay when the prophecy came in the form of an image. Second, as has been noted before, this vision is in the "slayer of lies" section, which also seems to indicate that Aegon's claim is false. The Undying put Aegon in the same category as Stannis (fake Azor Ahai) and the stone beast (fake dragon).

Third, the most compelling argument for Aegon being phony is that it explains a lot more. Not just what Varys has been doing recently, but also why he was undermining the Targaryen regime before the rebellion started. It also explains why we have a lot of otherwise irrelevant knowledge about Illyrio's love life and personal background; and why Illyrio cares so much about a throne in a kingdom that's not his own, why he has such oddly tender affection for Aegon when he didn't give two shits about Viserys or Daenerys, and why he's been willing to stake so much on a long-shot scheme that's been in motion for decades.

did you forget about quaithe?

"No. Hear me, Daenerys Targaryen. The glass candles are burning.

Soon comes the pale mare, and after her the others. Kraken and dark flame, lion and griffin, the sun’s son and the mummer’s dragon. Trust none of them. Remember the Undying. Beware the perfumed seneschal."

and "slayer of lies" could mean many many things since the vast majority of her suitors are lying bastards. the vision of the cloth dragon paraded in front of a cheering crowd could also be a reffernce to Danny's marrying of Hizdar and him using her to re-open the pits against her will. At that point she's being paraded around but is powerless to do anything... again just throwing it out there cant really be sure about these prophecies. It's just my little thoery that martin is purposefully tricking us into making conjectures about these prophecies based on the most obvious of clues instead of the subtlest.

edit: on the slayer of lies we deal with quiates other prophecy

"To go north, you must go south. To reach the west, you must go east. To go forward you must go back, and to touch the light you must pass beneath the shadow."

Asshai, Dany thought. She would have me go to Asshai. "Will the Asshai'i give me an army?" she demanded. "Will there be gold for me in Asshai? Will there be ships? What is there in Asshai that I will not find in Qarth?"

"Truth," said the woman in the mask. And bowing, she faded back into the crowd.

just for shiznits and gigglers maybe when she learns whatever "truth" there is in asshai she'll have a lie to slay.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

The cloth dragon _is_ a mummer's dragon (Jorah makes it clear), so I think Quaithe and the Undying are referring to the same individual.

And GRRM is "obvious" by the standards of people who have read the books many times and have pored over every clue, but that's not "obvious" by normal reader standards.

[The Dornishman's Wife]

Could you please cite where I have apparently misunderstood GRRM's writing style and thus prompting this seemingly useless post?

If you don't mind me replying to your post directed at Harry, that was referring to your words in #119, where it seems that either your Tyrion chapter has interestingly been mislabelled "GRRM" in your edition of Dance, or you do need the writing style of the book explained to you. For your convenience:

can you take a guess whose internal dialogue this is? Can you take a guess who is thinking like this? Well the correct answer is, NO ONE! These are GRRM's words direct to the reader, he is not expressing the view point of some other character, in this case he is talking directly to you the reader and he is referring to Aegon as a princeling

No, as everything in a Tyrion POV chapter, it's Tyrion POV (duh) and so can only reflect Tyrion's beliefs and does not represent GRRM-sanctioned gospel about anything where Tyrion could be wrong. Just like in Jon's chapters, the burning Rattleshirt who is glamoured to look like Mance is always called "Mance" and the taunting Mance who is glamoured to look like Rattleshirt is always called "Rattleshirt" as long as Jon does not know their true identities.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

It seems to me that the one proposing a secret dragon egg trove bears the burden of proof--since one obviously can't prove a negative.

Your proof is named Drogon, Viseryon and Rhaegal. Illyrio definitely had access to a cache. The only question is whether these three eggs were the only ones in it. There are strong hints that they weren't: Several dozen dragon eggs existed some time back in Targaryen possession, they are next to indestructible and Varys is the number one to track them down. And of course the question that started it all. Why should Illyrio give all his dragon eggs to Dany while his main player doesn't receive any.

[Uncle Impe]

If you don't mind me replying to your post directed at Harry, that was referring to your words in #119, where it seems that either your Tyrion chapter has interestingly been mislabelled "GRRM" in your edition of Dance, or you do need the writing style of the book explained to you. For your convenience:

No, as everything in a Tyrion POV chapter, it's Tyrion POV (duh) and so can only reflect Tyrion's beliefs and does not represent GRRM-sanctioned gospel. Just like in Jon's chapters, the burning Rattleshirt who is glamoured to look like Mance is always called "Mance" and the taunting Mance who is glamoured to look like Rattleshirt is always called "Rattleshirt" as long as Jon does not know their true identities.

True indeed, but that is because in literally thousands of instances GRRm does employ third person narrative to explain setting, scene etc.

But let us not get too far from the argument at hand.

Let us assume that I was wrong and completely misunderstood GRRM's writing style. That would mean that those are Tyrion's thoughts I was referring to as the narrator's right?

That would render his argument that Tyrion is doubt about the prince's birthright moot wouldnt it?

So which is it? you sure as hell cant have it both ways.

[IronBorn To be WILD]

The cloth dragon _is_ a mummer's dragon (Jorah makes it clear), so I think Quaithe and the Undying are referring to the same individual.

And GRRM is "obvious" by the standards of people who have read the books many times and have pored over every clue, but that's not "obvious" by normal reader standards.

i understand that a cloth dragon is literally a mummer's dragon :P and I wholeheartedly agree about Martin's "obvious" v. most literature. What Im referring to as obvious clues are the prophecies. there's no little clues hidden that would make you think aegon is real, just plain exposition. All the little clues and prophecies point to him being a fake, and Martin isnt the type to give us what we want. He has also repeatedly mentioned how fickle prophecies are not only wthin the books but in correspondance. IT's leading me to believe he's roping everyone into thinking aegon is a fake. Again as i said before all conjecture and a personal theory, and the whole danny being the mummers dragon thing is me just trying to throw a fresh interpretaion(spelling?) on the prophecies because jsut about everyone on these boarda re re-hashing the same ideas...but feel free to interject, refute and help with the theorys. damn my typing is god awful today :P

[Uncle Impe]

I think people have this backward. Illyrio giving Dany the dragon eggs is more mysterious if he and Varys only believe the dragon eggs to be expensive symbols of the Targaryen regime. Daenerys' lineage has never been questioned. No one doubts that she's who she claims to be. This is why they wanted Aegon to marry her--her legitimacy lends credence to his, which otherwise would be in doubt. Illyrio's comments (which are intended to convince Viserys that Drogo will marry her, not himself or indeed Drogo) make that clear. So the dragon eggs are unnecessary to bolster Dany's case, and were given to Dany well after Drogo had agreed to marry her in any case.

Meanwhile, Aegon's legitimacy is very much in doubt, and a lot of people who might otherwise support him will wonder if he's just some kid that the Golden Company picked up somewhere. Having a dragon egg won't 'prove' that he's a Targaryen, but it would make him seem more Targaryen, which is all to the good.

On the other hand, if Varys and Illyrio thought that they needed dragons for whatever reason, and that only Dany (for prophetic, salt-and-smoke reasons) could wake them... well, then that would explain why Dany got the dragon eggs, even if it raised other questions.

Another big hole in your theory/theories. That they wanted Dany to marry Aegon is a figment of your imagination. Doubly confusing being as you are talking about gifts they gave her as they married her to Khal Drogo. Some one who is very not Aegon now is he.

I dont see why if they planned on that marriage, they had her marry Khal Drogo first.

[The Dornishman's Wife]

That would mean that those are Tyrion's thoughts I was referring to as the narrator's right?

That would render his argument that Tyrion is doubt about the prince's birthright moot wouldnt it?

So which is it? you sure as hell cant have it both ways.

Indeed I do not claim Tyrion has any grave doubts about Aegon being Aegon, despite that one "might be a Targ after all" line. He routinely thinks of him as prince so often that I would guess it's more plausible he truly believes it (and does not just school his thoughts, like Sansa when she thinks of herself as Alayne).

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

Another big hole in your theory/theories. That they wanted Dany to marry Aegon is a figment of your imagination.

I suppose I imagined the quote from Harry Strickland that you quoted above? I suppose I also imagined Jon Connington saying to Haldon Halfmaester at Griffin's Roost that Aegon must be free to marry Daenerys?

True indeed, but that is because in literally thousands of instances GRRm does employ third person narrative to explain setting, scene etc.

Limited third person. As in, third person narration that is constrained by the perceptions of the main character, and doesn't include knowledge that the main character doesn't have.

Best example was that rather weak and unsupported response you came back with when asked to make up (not even cite) a plausible way GRRM would bring your theory full circle and link it back to that one instance in the Epilogue where Varys does not use the name Targaryen.

You failed even in that theoretical exercise but instead directed me to some mundane reference to blackfyres...Seriously?

Ummm... that wasn't me. That was somebody else's argument.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

Your proof is named Drogon, Viseryon and Rhaegal. Illyrio definitely had access to a cache. The only question is whether these three eggs were the only ones in it. There are strong hints that they weren't: Several dozen dragon eggs existed some time back in Targaryen possession, they are next to indestructible and Varys is the number one to track them down.

I don't know. If the dragon eggs were gone before Varys got there (and it seems to me that they probably were, for reasons that I outlined above), then I don't see why Varys and Illyrio would be better suited than anybody else with means to track down dragon's eggs.

[Uncle Impe]

I suppose I imagined the quote from Harry Strickland that you quoted above? I suppose I also imagined Jon Connington saying to Haldon Halfmaester at Griffin's Roost that Aegon must be free to marry Daenerys?

You are employing some chicanery here. When you say "They" you would have to be specific. Because originally I thought your arguments was based on the plotting and machinations of Illyario and Varys.

Limited third person. As in, third person narration that is constrained by the perceptions of the main character, and doesn't include knowledge that the main character doesn't have.

The problem for you is that if I do concede that point to you, It would make those Tyrions words, thoughts, pov etc. That would utterly demolish any notion as to Tyrions doubt of Aegons birth right.

You still lose the argument that Tyrion had doubts about Aegon's lineage.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

You are employing some chicanery here. When you say "They" you would have to be specific. Because originally I thought your arguments was based on the plotting and machinations of Illyario and Varys.

I don't think that would have made a difference. Harry Strickland and Jon Connington are acting on Varys' behalf, and it certainly seems as if they got the idea that Aegon and Daenerys need to get married from Illyrio. The trick is that Varys and Illyrio were constantly changing their plans in response to events.

BTW, can we both maybe cool things down a little bit? This debate is getting awfully heated considering that we're talking about made up people.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

I don't know. If the dragon eggs were gone before Varys got there (and it seems to me that they probably were, for reasons that I outlined above), then I don't see why Varys and Illyrio would be better suited than anybody else with means to track down dragon's eggs.

Yes, it is no way sure proof. But it doesn't need to be. It needs just to disprove the argument that Aegon can't be important to V+I because V+I gave all their dragon eggs to another one. That Aegon is important is backed by complety different facts, it just counters the counterargument brought up some time back.