What Varys Doesn't Say in the Epilogue...

[ab aeterno]

@ Ser Dunc,

I'm not necessarily disagreeing, but some of the issues that have come up with that sort of theory are things like the fact that Illyrio tried to get Viserys to stay with him and not go with the Dothraki, the fact that Illyrio gave Dany three dragon eggs and Varys warned Jorah so that could stop Dany being killed (as has been explained previously.) All of this happened before the dragons were born so it raises questions about how Illyrio/Varys had planned this unless they had prophetic dreams/visions or they were just playing all the angles.

[Ser Dunc]

While all interesting, true and somewhat problematic regarding that theory none of those necessarily prove it to be false either.

but some of the issues that have come up with that sort of theory are things like the fact that Illyrio tried to get Viserys to stay with him and not go with the Dothraki

Seems like an empty gesture and more than likely very underhanded to me. Much like Cersei telling Bob that she wouldn't allow him to fight in the melee. Illyrio knew Viserys he understood his temperament and knew or at least, if hes half as intelligent as we all give him credit to be, should've known that Viserys would've NEVER just let his army walk away with Dany. However, even if he stays Illyrio now has Viserys in a place where he can easily keep tabs on him. Also Viserys would've had to meet Drogo again either when he came back to attack Westeros with Viserys or when Viserys gets pissed off because hes tired of waiting and goes looking for him. Highly unlikely he lives through either of this circumstances.

the fact that Illyrio gave Dany three dragon eggs and Varys warned Jorah so that could stop Dany being killed (as has been explained previously.)

Like I said in my earlier post I don't believe Illyrio ever meant any ill will towards Dany. As a matter of fact I think he legitimately cared for her. Otherwise he would've just had her and her brother killed and dumped into the sea but he doesn't. He uses the dothraki and keeps his hands clean. Imo he does this for the love he bears for Dany. What are three petrified dragon eggs to Illyrio? He is an extremely wealthy man and while he has money he doesn't seem to really have a healthy loving relationship with anyone. It seems he has began to look at Dany as a surrogate daughter of sort in my eyes. So while those dragon eggs are no more than gold coins for him, of which he has plenty, for Dany they are everything. They are a link to her family who she never had a chance to know and even before she knew of the eggs importance she obviously cherished them dearly.

Like I said earlier clearly this a shit ton of conjecture and most certainly flawed but I feel it makes more sense than any other theories I've read on this subject

[Quentyn Baratheon]

If Illyrio had any good feelings for dany he would have take her with him the moment ser Darry died. She's a pawn for everybody to focus on Viserys and his screamers while "Aegon Vi" goes unnoticed.

[Ser Dunc]

If Illyrio had any good feelings for dany he would have take her with him the moment ser Darry died. She's a pawn for everybody to focus on Viserys and his screamers while "Aegon Vi" goes unnoticed.

unless those feelings didn't develop until he took her in. Its hard to love someone you don't know

[ab aeterno]

If Illyrio had any good feelings for dany he would have take her with him the moment ser Darry died. She's a pawn for everybody to focus on Viserys and his screamers while "Aegon Vi" goes unnoticed.

I have to say, this was my first instinct, that Dany/Viserys were a convenient way to get Robert Baratheon's attention, and that of anyone else looking for Targaryens, away from Aegon. I agree however that Varys/Illyrio probably modified their plans once Dany's situation turned out as it did. The might have been the point of their conversation which Arya witnesses.

unless those feelings didn't develop until he took her in. Its hard to love someone you don't know

It's possible but that is already close to what happens with Jorah. It would seem somewhat weak if everyone just kept developing feeling for Dany. Also, he did, with Viserys, sell her to a Dorthraki horse lord, and my interperetation would be that Illyrio probably felt, much as Ned did, that the Dothraki were never likely to cross the sea, and that Viserys was too arrogant/foolish to see that.

[Swordbrother Oakeshott]

In the prophecy, all of the people are lumped into pairs. The sun's son and the mummer's dragon are lumped together. Maybe Quentyn was the sun's son and the mummer's dragon, given what he tried to pull at the end. Although, you could argue that the prophecy would've then been worded "The sun's son and mummer's dragon" instead. Also, all of these people are converging on Dany, however, Aegon never did, he changed course and went to Westeros instead. Although this could just be that Quaithe is interpreting the prophecy wrong, as we know they can be.

Based on what we've seen of Aegon so far, it seems he might make for a good king when he matures a bit.

[The Dornishman's Wife]

Also, all of these people are converging on Dany, however, Aegon never did, he changed course and went to Westeros instead. Although this could just be that Quaithe is interpreting the prophecy wrong, as we know they can be.

Also Aegon's chaperone the Griffin did not arrive at Dany's, at least in the standard interpretation Griffin = Jon Con. Which indicates that Q maybe didn't even fortell the future at all but just described the present or what direct extrapolations she could get from just seeing the present (which would e.g. be consistent with her having peeked into a class candle).

[Swordbrother Oakeshott]

Yeah, and Dany is obsessing over it... A targ obessesing over prophecy has never gone wrong before of course...

[AzorAhai = Ice&JSnow]

I have heard many theories in this thread that Vary's nearly entire plot(s) revolve around helping Aegon achieve the Iron Throne. I believe his goals are much simpler, he wants rulers who cares about the common folk and equality for all people, but more importantly, the epilogue from ADWD shows finally who he is working for/ his true motives center around The Children of the Forest, who are all around him at the time and likely "ordered" the hit on Kevan.

The main reason for killing Kevan is to bring down House Lannister to possibly set it up where Tyrion is the only living heir and inherits Casterly Rock by default. I think Tyrion could be a descendent of The Children and possibly his mother was impregnated by "them" causing her eventual death, remember there is the massive gold mine at Casterly ( that now has dried up, maybe The Children have been taking the gold and using/hiding it for Tyrion or their plans?).

The purpose for Varys helping "Aegon" could be because he is trying to mass troops together in favor of a Targaryen. Any Houses/people in support of a Targaryen such as Aegon will easily support Dany when she eventually makes it to Westeros. I don't believe Varys is all for Aegon per se but instead just trying to setup Westeros for Dany upon her return and since most would not align themselves with her until they see her dragon(s).

So recap: Varys is aligned with The Children of the Forest, and cares only/mostly for their goals of uniting the realm with those believe in equality ( Tyrion, Dany, etc ) and is setting up for Tyrion to inherit Castey Rock bc all heirs are dead ( in TWoW? ) and he is part Children himself

The goal with Aegon is to gather troops that will later join Dany bc if they are willing to follow a Targ without dragons wait till Dany hits the 7K, maybe in search of her stolen Rhaegar and Viserys ( btw I think Dany will temporarily loose her other dragons and only have drogon, upon her return, until bran can help warg them out of the control of the horn used by Euron/Victarion, then he will be a wolf the flies ).

I know this is an older post, hope some reply, I'm very interested in the motives of the spider...

[Targaryen loyalist]

My opinion on Varys and Illyrio plan is that they always supported Aegon (Targaryen, Blackfyre or Mophatis doesn't matter) since the beginning.

I think that their Masterplan "Version 1.0" was:

1) Marry Dany to the Dothraki

2) Have Vyseris "killed" by the Dothraki (via assassination)

3) Encourage the Dothraki to sail to Westeros attempting (and intentionally failing) to kill Dany, enraging Khal Drog

4) Let the Dothrak cry havok and release the dogs of war on Westeros, weakening King Robert

5) Have Dany killed in the mess of the Dothrak invasion of Westeros

6) Murder Robert and reveal Cersei's incest

7) Have Aegon land in Dorne, marry Arianne, march with the support of the Martells and the "friends in the Reach" + the Golden Company

8) Defeat the Dothraki, claim the Throne

9) ???

10) Profit

Their plan went south due to two issues:

- Ned discovery of Cersei incest, triggering a Civil War too soon

- Dany hatching three Dragons

The outcome of the Civil War in Westeros made their job easier (the IT army now is weak, and Dorne is still untouched by the war), but Dany "Queen of Dragons" made it harder. So they changed the plan and decided to marry Aegon to Dany.

Then Tyrion convinced Aegon to invade ASAP, so change of plans again and Varys had to kill Kevan & co. to ensure an even easier conquest of Westeros.

[Gomagoti]

My opinion (i stress, opinion) on Varys & Illyrio is that they are not supporting any king. I think the only time when Varys told the truth is when he had that converstaion with Tyrion about how he was cut for magic-Varys truly hates magic. And I think therein lies his motivation; Varys wants to destroy magic. He knows something about the Targs, something about the Fire side of the story , and he knows dragons and magic have some linkage (which I as yet cannot see). He may even know or suspect about the Ice magic, hence his conversations with Ned, the white raven. I don't think he is too worried about the good of the realm, after all he;

-helped fuel Aerys' paranoia

-didn't help Rhaegar, who seemed destined to be a good king

-didn't do much for Robert

-fed Robert info about Dany & Viserys

-fed Dany & Viserys (through Illyrio) info about Robert

-used Mormont to spy on Dany, hasn't generally helped Dany, nor truly hindered her

-has conversations with Illyrio about trying to keep the peace in the realm for a little longer (úntil they are ready) and then kills Kevan fr bringing stability

I think Aegon is part of their uber plan to remove magic from the world.How? i don't know-ask GRRM.

[Justin Amey]

So I was reading through this the other day, and I noticed something curious about Varys' conversation with Kevan. My apologies if this has already been posted somewhere. I couldn't find it.

Varys never calls Young Griff "Aegon Targaryen." Nor does he ever allege that he is in any way related to the dynasty. He merely says that "Aegon" has been raised to be a king and all that jazz. For all we know, Varys could have found some Lysene whore's baby and named him Aegon. Or maybe his name is Aegon Mopatis? Or even (dare I suggest it...) Aegon Blackfyre? It's worth mentioning that Daemon Blackfyre's first two sons were Aegon and Aemon.

Not ironclad proof of anything in the end, but it reconciles the thought that Varys has no reason to lie to a dying Kevan with the theory that Aegon could be fake.

Thoughts?

How in the world would they find this needle in a country?

If they were giving this boy to a Esso native, I would believe him to be false but to give him to JonCon, some who knows what both Rhaegar and infant Aegon looks like. They can't find a false boy that looks that like Aegon.

Personally I think Aegon is Illyrio's son by his dead wife who was just some Essosian Vallyrian descendant. Illyrio's story about his and Varys' shared past shows that they'll love to cheat the highborn with such a fantastic swindle.

Varys calls Aegon by his first name as a term of endearment. He demonstrates to us in it that he has a heart and it's been captured by the concept of King Aegon, just like Illyrio loves his wife and son.

Illyrio's wife had Blue Eyes and gold hair with white streaks. Her plus Illyrio will equal a complete looking Targ looking boy.

Second Why in all seven hell would Illyrio give his son away to anybody, let alone someone who don't like him? Think real hard please!!!

[AzorAhai = Ice&JSnow]

My opinion on Varys and Illyrio plan is that they always supported Aegon (Targaryen, Blackfyre or Mophatis doesn't matter) since the beginning.

I think that their Masterplan "Version 1.0" was:

1) Marry Dany to the Dothraki

2) Have Vyseris "killed" by the Dothraki (via assassination)

3) Encourage the Dothraki to sail to Westeros attempting (and intentionally failing) to kill Dany, enraging Khal Drog

4) Let the Dothrak cry havok and release the dogs of war on Westeros, weakening King Robert

5) Have Dany killed in the mess of the Dothrak invasion of Westeros

6) Murder Robert and reveal Cersei's incest

7) Have Aegon land in Dorne, marry Arianne, march with the support of the Martells and the "friends in the Reach" + the Golden Company

8) Defeat the Dothraki, claim the Throne

9) ???

10) Profit

Their plan went south due to two issues:

- Ned discovery of Cersei incest, triggering a Civil War too soon

- Dany hatching three Dragons

The outcome of the Civil War in Westeros made their job easier (the IT army now is weak, and Dorne is still untouched by the war), but Dany "Queen of Dragons" made it harder. So they changed the plan and decided to marry Aegon to Dany.

Then Tyrion convinced Aegon to invade ASAP, so change of plans again and Varys had to kill Kevan & co. to ensure an even easier conquest of Westeros.

A good point that I agree with some, but where do The Children factor in? It seems clear that his "little birds" are The Children and if they are helping him they must want the same thing (no way would Varys get away with manipulating them).

I believe any objectives, particularly Aegon, is just a means towards his primary goal of helping The Children. I have a hard time believing that The Children would align themselves with Varys if his goal was only to try and get another Targ/Aegon on the Iron Throne or if blood feud related.

Whatever the end game that The Children want to achieve must be bigger than that, such as...

(1) Preparing for and defeating The Others

(2) Choosing the right "people" (not just Aegon bc it will take the entire realm working together to defeat them, ) that are capable of destroying The Others

(3) Killing as many "bad apples" in the world as possible so those left to rebuild society in the aftermath of winter aren't cruel, self serving, megalomaniacs but instead just, honorable, and dedicated to equality and freedom.

The problem with many of the posts in this thread is everyone is ignoring the fact that The Children of the Forest are working in conjunction with Varys! This, in my mind, changes all of the little bit we know of Varys and that his intentions must be for a greater good of The Children's choosing. I highly doubt Varys convinced them to see his point of view, instead I guarantee Varys is carrying out The Children's bidding whatever that is (?) can best be speculated on from the Bran chapters.

[Buried Treasure]

A good point that I agree with some, but where do The Children factor in? It seems clear that his "little birds" are The Children and if they are helping him they must want the same thing (no way would Varys get away with manipulating them).

...his primary goal of helping The Children....

...everyone is ignoring the fact that The Children of the Forest are working in conjunction with Varys! This, in my mind, changes all of the little bit we know of Varys and that his intentions must be for a greater good of The Children's choosing.

Varys birds are children, not the Children. Think Missandei, not Leaf.

She was a child slave trained in writing and the Westerosi tongue in a city which produces slaves in bulk. That better matches Illyrio being able to procure an additional 50 birds, with discretion on whether they keep their tongues, than if they were using allies from a reclusive long-lived, low population race.

[Amris]

This has nothing to do with the CotF.

By 'for the children' Varys meant 'for the younger generation' (i.e - he is doing it so the country becomes a better place for its future citizens to live in).

He says so explicitly: 'For the realm. For the children.'

[Cynical Classicist]

Jon Connington notes in one of his chapters that the Blackfyres ended with maelys the monstrous in the male line.this means we can assume the female line survived. if the Blackfyres kept the Targ tradition of marrying brother to sister then its possible that Aegon is a Blackfyre descendant through the female line. Varys never legitimizes Aegon when he speaks to kevan, he merely states that the boy has been raised to be a king, a better king than Westeros has had in Robert or Joffrey. This begs the question what would have happened if Viserys had gained the throne. Aegon's claim is stronger than his uncle's and i doubt Jon Con would have twiddled his thumbs and said "Oh Well". I only hope we get an explanation one way or the other in Winds rather than having to wait till Dream.

I thought it was Illyrio who said that. Anyway, Aegor Rivers married one of Daemon's daughters so perhaps Aegon Griff is descended from them. Apparently Aerion Brightflame had bastards in Lys. In Lys many people do have Valyrian features so it could just be one of them. The fact the GC is supporting Aegon implies he is descended from the Blackfyres but who can really say? At this point, the big twist would be if he really was Aegon, son of Rhaegar Targaryen. He certainly seems to believe this and Jon Connington seems to think so as well. Or is he deluding himself because he wants to believe he is helping his friend's son get their inheritance back? Whatever happens, Aegon has a very good claim, an army. He will certainly cause the Lannister-Tyrell regime some trouble, especially as the Reach is occupied by the Ironborn and Dorne might join him, or at least, not oppose him.

[King_Slayer]

And no evidence that Aegon is Aegon Targaryen as well. But the Aegon Blackfyre-Mopatis theory answers about every single open question concerning Varys and lllyrio's involvement and motivation.

what he said

[Lord Fauntleroy]

You have to look at it from a literary standpoint. Why would GRRM bother with the "male line" bit if it wasn't important? He could just say "Blackfyre line extinguished" and be done with it.

[Amris]

The 'male line' bit would be important even without the Blackfyre theory: Since the male line takes precedence the extinction of the male Blackfyre line would mean the main Targ line has the claim.

 

So the male-line-bit is no clue either way.

 

From a literary standpoint it made sense to include the word 'male'-line because it left more doors open storywise and thus 1) did not force GRRM's hand in future plots and 2) gives us more ambiguity to speculate on (which I suspect is what GRRM likes). See: Whether the Blackfyre-theories are right or wrong: They are highly interesting and it would be a shame if they did not exist simply because a single word (male) had been omitted from the books.

 

 

[The Egg]

Can it possibly be just that nobody ever payed attention to the female line? Most dead families (in Westeros as in real life) still have some descendant, either in the female line (the Gardeners, for example) or in a lesser, not closely related family branch (the Karstarks, the Lannisters of Lannisport and so on) but actually nobody cares unless the main family branch dies completely (Harry the Heir)... But this is DEFINITELY not Aegon's case, since even if he's a Blackfyre via the female line, Robert was a Targaryen via the female line, so Stannis still helds a much better claim. Not to mention the Martells, of course.

And this family is the reason why I don't believe that Aegon is Varys and Illyrio's endgame: why bother having Arianne betrothed to Viserys, if they had Aegon?

Both plots start after ASOS in Martin's writing, so we can assume they've been developed together. So what's the point in having a decades long secret correspondence with the Martells only to hide them the son of Elia, the boy for whom Doran would've done anything? Either he's not who they claim he is (but still, in this case they could've cheated Doran and Oberyn as much as they did with JonCon) or he is the true heir but they didn't want the Martells to know, for sure there's much more Varys is still hiding from us and we can't really judge.

My theory is that Aegon (for whatever reason, and whatever surname may he have) is just a device they're using for their own purposes that go beyond the Iron Throne itself. What these purposes are we can't know, but I believe that in the original plan Viserys was actually meant to sit on the Iron Throne, with Aegon being either a puppet (if false) or destined to a greater good in a Song-related quest.

Of course, this is just a theory, a crackpot as anyone else, but it's what came to my mind rereading the Dorne chapters