Is it obscene how bad things are for Danys prospects of retaking the Throne?

[Jahaera of Valyria]

Apart from the fact that Dany's allies are likely to be few in numbers, I think that she herself is one of the greatest obstacles when thinking about conquering Westeros.

She has never been to the country she's supposedly destined to conquer, all of what she knows about it is what she has been told by others and although she is a Targ and was brought up to see her family as the true ruler, she does not have a sense of belonging to Westeros. Mostly, Dany is torn between what she was told is her destiny and what she believes is right, namely not abandoning the freedmen of Mereen. Even more, she does not know herself what she wants and puts sailing to Westeros off over and over again. What she tries to find is a family and a home but how to get there is not obvious.

GRRM has thus not only made her surroundings incredibly difficult but also her own character and personality.

[tws1978]

Apart from the fact that Dany's allies are likely to be few in numbers, I think that she herself is one of the greatest obstacles when thinking about conquering Westeros.

She has never been to the country she's supposedly destined to conquer, all of what she knows about it is what she has been told by others and although she is a Targ and was brought up to see her family as the true ruler, she does not have a sense of belonging to Westeros. Mostly, Dany is torn between what she was told is her destiny and what she believes is right, namely not abandoning the freedmen of Mereen. Even more, she does not know herself what she wants and puts sailing to Westeros off over and over again. What she tries to find is a family and a home but how to get there is not obvious.

GRRM has thus not only made her surroundings incredibly difficult but also her own character and personality.

True, but this was done specifically to keep Dany away until the time is right. There is only very narrow window where a conquerer promissing fire and blood arriving to take back the continent we care about can be seen in a positive light.

It´s when a) the situation on the continent deteroriates so much her arrival can be seen as saving, b ) she is not arriving just to join the (neverending) struggle about power and the Iron Throne but to help with the more important cause, ie. the Others

If Dany decided to take any of the outs she was offered through times and attacked the Westeros then she would be defeated and probably helped to join all the lords against common enemy. Nobody wants to see yet another Iron Throne contestant, that´s where Aegon made his huge mistake. But with the Others now about to attack and Night Watch losing the only LC capable to stop them, and with Aegon making any chance for a longterm peace even less possible, and with the Winter officially starting, GRRM is just aligning all the circumstances in a way where Dany´s arrival is finally possible. And I´m not even talking about the very likeable possibility of ether Victarion or Euron stealing one of the dragons to make futher chaos in Westeros. That would sure forced Dany´s hand because she would felt responsible for her former home being terrorized by one of her "kids".

Let´s not forget, if lucky, Dany will not arrive in Westeros until the end of next book. And based on its title the book will deal with the most cruel part of winter, where we will very likely see the Westeros civiliation reach its near extinction. Any help will be welcomed then, especially a help with a fresh forces and an effective mass weapon against the most dreadfull enemy. I´m not saying it automatically makes Dany the Queen (and I have no doubt as soon as the Others are gone the politics and struggle over Iron Throne will start a new) but she will be one of the strongest players on the scene then and with no trouble to find supporters/allies.

[Jahaera of Valyria]

It´s when a) the situation on the continent deteroriates so much her arrival can be seen as saving, b ) she is not arriving just to join the (neverending) struggle about power and the Iron Throne but to help with the more important cause, ie. the Others

I totally agree. Dany or rather her dragons will most likely be needed desperately in the struggle against the Others. For once because it's deep winter and moving troops to the Wall will be a major problem and also because it's one of the major struggles in the novels (Fire vs. Ice). Also keeping her in Essos deliberatly is surely an intelligent desicion and as has been pointed out any attempt at taking the Iron Throne earlier would have failed. Yet, I am not sure (and very curious) about how GRRM will turn the situation and bring Dany to Westeros.

A torn and deteriorated society may even welcome her by the end of the next novel or beginning of ADOS. However, Dany's unwillingness to sail to Westeros is a major obstacle. She would need to realize that either the entire world including those she calls her children are in danger or to find that Westeros is her destiny. I would personaly like it a lot if she was to cooperate with Aegon and some other Targ (since there are three dragons) but that still wouldn't explain how a change of heart may be evoked, she is remains standing in her own light.

In the end, I agree, she (or at least some Targ) will probably be one of the strongest players.

[total1402]

Well I think Dany put off Westeros for so long because she felt she couldn't just go and her experience with Viserys n in Qarth told her that people in Westeros won't rise for her or help her. This why she got an army and decided to proove that she could rule in Mereen. A lot of peple would have doubted supporting a fifteen year old Queen. My impression is that this long waiting (her whole life) has made her slightly cynical about her own chances and thinks of it more as a lifes work sort of thing. The distance from Westeros is also a major factor. Dany doesn't know about how bloody the War of Five Kings has been thus doesn't feel compelled to "save" her people in the same way as she does the immediate slaves around her. Nor how events might be favourable for her and she is probably also going to wait for her dragons to mature. Going when they're babies isn't a sound strategy when you have an advantage like that. So I don't think its about willingness but she came across as broadly pessimistic about her odds of a quick victory.

Aegon has actually arrived just in time to battle the winter though. Theres no reason why he couldn't unite Westeros and march off to the North. If staying on the wall were the issue then you could argue that Stannis has kind of done this as well. Its been a while since I read but I got the impression that he wants to get more than just Winterfell n the North; it seemed like another dash for the throne. But Stannis is still fighting for the realm; even Cersei acknowledges that troublesome point. I doubt the Lords would be so hostile to Aegons return and suddenly think "we must unite" to the point of hating Aegons insisitence at being made King. Lan/Tyrell, Martell, Littlefinger, the Tarlys, the Stormlords, Euron; theres no indication that they would value working together to save the realm over their own troubles.

I can very much see a Napoleon analogy with Aegon returning to Westeros with 2000 men and then being "faced" by a Tyrell host. IMO they'll join him and he'll be swept by joyous crowds into KL; chasing away the Lannisters.

[Ser Richard Horpe]

I love these OPs who use only select information for their argument.

Tyrells on board with the Lannisters? Hmmm really? After Cersei tries to get Margaery executed and Kevan is dead. Tyrells will back Dany. And so will all their bannermen. (Margaery will probably die causing this to happen) Freys will destroy themselves once Walder dies, Tullys will gain riverrun back and will want to back dany for revenge against the lannisters. Stannis and Aegon are the biggest problems but Aegon wants to marry Dany and is probably fake. As for Stannis, for the sake of the plot he will have to die :( When the others come and dany roasts em, north will rally for her. I think westeros is still in such turmoil, Dany still has very good prospects

[pat]

I can very much see a Napoleon analogy with Aegon returning to Westeros with 2000 men and then being "faced" by a Tyrell host. IMO they'll join him and he'll be swept by joyous crowds into KL; chasing away the Lannisters.

The success of other Candidates while she is a world away. Is not important to her story and does not detract from her chances.

[total1402]

I love these OPs who use only select information for their argument.

Tyrells on board with the Lannisters? Hmmm really? After Cersei tries to get Margaery executed and Kevan is dead. Tyrells will back Dany. And so will all their bannermen. (Margaery will probably die causing this to happen) Freys will destroy themselves once Walder dies, Tullys will gain riverrun back and will want to back dany for revenge against the lannisters. Stannis and Aegon are the biggest problems but Aegon wants to marry Dany and is probably fake. As for Stannis, for the sake of the plot he will have to die :( When the others come and dany roasts em, north will rally for her. I think westeros is still in such turmoil, Dany still has very good prospects

1-Tyrells will either go for Aegon or will be wedded to the Lannisters because only the Lannister alliance can get them a King. They'll have to lose what they've gained. The Bannermen like Tarly will defect. But to Aegon.

2-The Freys deaths will only replace them with another force hostile to Dany. ie Fireworshippers who rally around Gendry or Stannis or all the Tully bannermen who hate the Targs because thats what they did last time. They will think Dany is "as mad as her father" and even if they get over that prejudice; they will join Aegon if they join any Targ.

3-Aegon will think Dany is dead as this is word of mouth after the arena. At this he will marry Arianne in a heartbeat to win Martell if he doesn't before. Him wanting to marry Dany won't last long. He can't just cast aside Arriane or insist that he can take two wives either (something tells me that would piss off the Dornish and possibly Dany).

4-Stannis should have died a long,long, long time ago. He supposedly "died" at the end of ADWD as well. To my mind that means he can't die in WoW without it falling flat. He'll be alive and with a big army to fight Dany.

5-The North hate the Targs. They fought a long bloody war of independence to escape southern domination. Her father butchered their nobility. Shes from a house known for mental instability. They'll think shes out for vengence anyway and fight. Besides they're with Stannis and clearly believe that he is the honourable legitimate heir; just like Ned did. They won't forget their honour. The Starks know they owe a lot to Stannis and yes they p[robably would try to fight the Others by themselves rather than invite domination by letting Dany into their lands.