Learning to Lead V: endings and beginnings. A Daenerys and Jon reread ADWD reread project

[Lyanna Stark]

I agree on the change is hard but I think this is a point were GRRM runs, potentially, into problems by dealing with the topic in a realistic way within the confines of of a genre novel. Gritty back stabbing politics is one thing, even violating the true pure northman mythos is forgivable but the nuts and bolts of change in society seem to have been too much for some readers.

I agree, it is a hard thing for a lot of people to accept in a genre novel, especially since I think there are pacing problems in ADWD. It really gains on a reread, but I cannot deny I think it has pacing problems still. The last two Dany chapters, Barristan's chapters and the last four or so Jon chapters plus a lot of Theon's arc are completely brilliant and really helps drive both the story and the character development forward, but some of the earlier ones, plus Quentyn and Tyrion's journeys could definitely have been well served by some heavy editing. That is by the by though. :)

But for us I think it makes a very interesting angle to investigate, rather like leadership, which I feel GRRM has tackled in a realistic way. I didn't doubt reading and rereading Danerys and Jon that they were in the tar pit struggling to do the right thing and to find their path.

The difficulty is will GRRM be able to sell us change at some later point in his series now that he has been dealing with it in a realistic way. He's established that it is hard, difficult and slow to change things in his world. The risk is that any change in westeros that is brought about could fail to convince us, or potentially that we will leave westeros in its current mess at the end of the series but with the possibility of change in the air.

I do think his goal has been to plant these seeds of change, if you will, which can bloom later on in spring (I worked really hard on that analogy :P ). We've seen it with the deconstruction of Westerosi society, with the placement of women questioning patriarchal powers, with Jaime and Barristan questioning the Kingsguard ethics, with the BwB asking some questions about justice and with Dany and Jon definitely threatening the Status Quo in their environments. It does feel like AFFC and ADWD were the setup for what's to come in this regard, and I can see why it could possibly end in such a way that the change wrought feels to subtle, or not overwhelming enough for the readers. Although I hope not, of course. :)

Anyroad that's by the by. More to the point Lyanna, you think that Barristan, Tyrion and Jorah don't have their own agendas? :) I never suspected you of such innocence ;)

Hah, no, I don't think they are innocent of their own agendas, but their agendas are probably more straight forward than Bloodraven's and Mel's. Barristan and Jorah just wishes to serve her, for her to go to Westeros and rule and to take them with her, and to act as stand-in daughter (Barristan) or wife (Jorah). Tyrion needs Dany to hang onto life and to ever have a change to get back to Westeros and well, Get Back at Stuff.

What Mel and Bloodraven want is an enigma though, and they are much harder to predict.

[Lummel]

I agree, it is a hard thing for a lot of people to accept in a genre novel, especially since I think there are pacing problems in ADWD. It really gains on a reread, but I cannot deny I think it has pacing problems still. The last two Dany chapters, Barristan's chapters and the last four or so Jon chapters plus a lot of Theon's arc are completely brilliant and really helps drive both the story and the character development forward, but some of the earlier ones, plus Quentyn and Tyrion's journeys could definitely have been well served by some heavy editing. That is by the by though. :)...

Hmm, this is semi-pertinent to our theme. In the first three books there was the story of the big war which really tied the whole thing together (OK Daenerys was off to one side, and then Jon, Sam and Bran eventually). In 4 and 5 that really isn't there. The POVs are virtually freestanding, it seems as though you could extract them and have a Daenerys novel or a Jon novel. Personally I thought all the individual storylines are strong, I'm quite happy with every word and sentence of Tyrion, Daenerys and Jon. But I don't know if it adds up to be a good book collectively. For me the parts are still more than the sum of the whole. While rereading Tyrion in AGOT and ACOK, as I am currently, I find it's the other way round.

However rereading like this, as a group, one thing that I notice is the parallels and repetitions between one POV and another. So a scene is repeated, but with a variation. There's quite a bit of this in Daenerys and Jon, say the weddings, or feeding the refuges. Or indeed the doll scenes - Arya rips open a soldier-doll, Sansa rips open a giant-doll then Jon watches a giant rip open a soldier as though he was a doll. Action, repetition, then variation. Damned if I would have noticed that if I wasn't doing this reread though.

And that's the weird thing. GRRM we are told doesn't visit fan forms but he's written a book that is best appreciated socially, in fact if you read it on your own you are at a disadvantage! And by socially I mean the forum specifically because it allows us to do things like this and link in to past posts or other threads or websites if they come up with something relevant.

Anyhow speaking of relevance we are on Jon XIII. Although we called this thread learning to lead, perhaps looking at Jon's arc we should have chosen a different title, maybe 'disillusionment with leadership' or possibly 'freedom from constraint' because it seems to me as though this chapter is as much about Jon throwing off his rabbit ears as Daenerys IX was. Jon is constrained, tense and irritable except around Tormund with whom he is relaxed and expansive. To me Jon seems relaxed and relieved as he casts off his Lord Commander persona to go south and rescue Arya, I think for both Daenerys and Jon their leadership roles became for them more about what they felt they couldn't do and couldn't achieve than with what they could. Of course we will get to see Daenerys mulling over some of that...

But as we have seen both have made significant changes. There is a mass of Daenerys support in Meereen. The old masters were able to hurt her, but aren't strong or united enough to rule the city without the support of her allies. Jon has achieved some success on the Wall. He took over a ruined command, has seen restoration at Castle Black, opened up a mass of forts, possibly doubled (or more?) the fighting strength of the Watch and integrated Wildings without (so far) rapes and murders.

Change however is slow and the process of trying to push through change has dispirited our heroes.

[mshadows]

Most of Dany's success comes from when she stops trying, those swinging from the hip idea's end letting the things get balance and change at a pace. I'm not saying things are rosy and will work out for the best but its best if Dany starts but doesnt help the rest of the way. her better than jon advisers will work out more his massive loss and her modest gain. tyrion worth something rest are too easily cowed to be of any use.

jon was intriguing because he evolves throughout the book. He listens to advise from those he views as either competent of intelligent he's not close to ever being a mary sue. although he ignores most of the "advisers" around him in time(not without good reason) the one time (!) one for them breaks with the others and slowly becomes less useless jon ignores him. Yarwyck to me in that sentence

“If the wildlings at Hardhome need saving, let the wildlings here go save them. Tormund knows the way to Hardhome.

"

not a great suggestion but a start from the usual worthless and witless they usually came up with. Yet Jon gives the PC line then tells them to go.

it was a great re-read project thank you Lummel, Butterbumps and Dr. Pepper

[Winter's Lass]

First of all, thank you for the warm welcome! :laugh:

Lummel - I checked the link to the Citadel and I was a little shocked to see the differences between the english version of the Citadel and the spanish version at Asshai.com for the question on the Mereenese Knot. No wonder you said it didn't quite match! All in all the answers seemed to be the same (with some minor differences that may not matter) but the Citadel version on the Knot is at least half as long as the one in Asshai

It's like the one at the Citadel is a summary of the original. I think the way GRRM answers the question makes a nice summary of some of the main points of Dany's situation in Mereen, and just in case someone was interested I decided to translate it (just that question, the original interview is HUGE).

From asshai.com interview in Barcelona (27 of july of 2012):

17 – Now that we know how the “Mereenese Knot” played out, which was the real problem with that part? The order in which the characters reached Dany; who, when, and how the dragon were released...?

'An esential part of Dance and the series is what happens in Mereen. Bassically it's Daenerys story there, once she reaches the city what she pretends is to take control and become queen... but she has a series of problems.

To star with, the rebellion of The Sons of the Harpy, all the almost terrorist attacks o murders that occur very quietly on the street, that create instability in the inner forum, in the innermost part of the city.

On the other hand, there's the external danger of her enemies of Yunkai, who have armed themselves once more and are preparing an alliance and send her emissaries to negotiate with her and force her to submit to their wishes.

There's also the situation with Astapor: she had destroyed it, but from its ruins emerges a new king and he proposes marriage to have an alliance between the two cities. There's also the desicion on wether she reopens or not the fighting pits (remember that she has to try to calm down the nobles of Yunkai).

Daenerys is trying to solve all this problems in order to consolidate her power and is looking for different solutions, looking for different types of agreements. For example, there's Daxos offer with his fleet of 13 ships, that she rejects, and therefore he goes from being a potential ally to an enemy and attempts to besiege the city. All this creates instability in the city, while outside its walls the people of Yunkai are preparing for battle and have an army ready.

Daenerys' hand is one of the most precious things throughout the novel. Different men seek her hand: Hizdahr, for example, who is the choice of the nobles of Mereen, to achieve a reconciliation, or Daario, this charismatic and dangerous mercenary leader that is who really causes a reaction from her.

Besides all these issues, there's the plague that strikes the city and the release of the dragons...

In addition, there's a number of characters going to the Mereen and they must be taken into account: there's Quentyn Martell, Tyrion, Victarion Greyjoy with his Iron Fleet, the archmaester Marwyn from Oldtown and aegon with his Golden Company. An also emphasize the situation with Volantis, which has not been as expected.

What worried me of all these issues was knowing when was it that each of the characters arrived to the city. When they arrived depended on where they left from, the means of transportation and when. For that I had to check what I had written in Storm and Feast.

Logically, I'm not totally restricted by this*, I can take certain liberties, I can make someone who left later than others arrive earlier by saying that the others had a shipwreck o were attacked or whatever, but I needed full control of the timing and exact moment of arrival of each of them, because each arrival has a dramatic impact in the development of the plot.

If Quentyn arrives with his marriage proposal long before Daenerys marries, or if he arrives after si is married, logically the result will be very different. That why, in order to know how everything would work out, I wrote those two possibilities, and finally a third one: that Quentyn arrives the day before the wedding, when there's practically no time to change the situation at all. As you can see, all this as I'm saying changes the different dynamics of the group.**

And besides all this there's Drogon's return, where Dany takes the decision to reopen the pits which have been closed for decades. This decision was supposed to be the first chapter of Dance, before Dance existed as a separate book from Feast, as fifth installment of the saga.

I know the answer I'm giving is somehow ambiguous and I'm beating around the bush***, but basically I wanted to express the feeling of uncertainty and confusion I had when trying to solve the situation... and that's why I always talked about a knot. The material could only be one, I needed to properly develop each of the situations because they had influence in the general argument of the novel and in the end I got all the characters there, except one that doesn't appear in the book'.

(End of theanswer)

* It originally says "No estoy atado de pies y manos". I'm sure there's a better expression, I feel like I have one in the tip of my tongue but I can't remember it. What I wrote is a bit more formal but the meaning is the same.

**It's translated exactly, but it wasn't clear if he meant the group in Mereen or the different groups trying to reach the city.

*** What he says id "estoy desbarrando un poco", which is not an expression used in my country, but I think 'beating around the bush' is more or less the same. (if someone has a better translation let me know and I'll change it).

As I said, it was really long.

On Jon XIII:

I understand the idea that this chapter should be the equivalent of Dany throwing the tokar, and the first time I read it I was expecting it: it's not just that Jon seems at the end of his patience with Bowen and Co., there's an overall feeling that something big is about to happen, similar to the one I got with the one in the fighting pits.

However, I feel like we never get to Jon's equivalent to the tokar. There's the clear violence in Wun Wun's scene which takes me back to Drogon at the pits, but the feeling I get is that Jon is about to snap but gets stabbed.

I can't help but wonder, if Jon hadn't been stabbed, what would have been his reaction to the whole Wun Wun situation? Would he have chosen to throw him in the cells, or would he have finally snapped and told the southrons it was their own fault and to shut up?

(not that I blame Wun Wun, we're told he's a pretty peaceful guy, I'm sure there's a story there).

[tze]

However, I feel like we never get to Jon's equivalent to the tokar. There's the clear violence in Wun Wun's scene which takes me back to Drogon at the pits, but the feeling I get is that Jon is about to snap but gets stabbed.

I don't think Jon really had a tokar---certainly not in the sense that Dany did. The tokar represented her attempt to look as if she was acclimating to an alien culture. Jon was not situated in an alien culture---he's on his cultural home turf throughout ADWD. The southerners at the Wall keep wanting him to "put on a tokar" (i.e., start acting like a good southern noble), but Jon infuriates them because he refuses to operate as they think he should. (There's an argument that he had a "tokar" among the wildlings---the sheepskin cloak Mance gave him in place of his Night's Watch cloak---but the situation is slightly different because Jon was operating as a subordinate there, both among the Watchmen and among the wildlings, while Dany's tokar only comes into play when she's already a queen, ostensibly beholden to no higher authority.)

I can't help but wonder, if Jon hadn't been stabbed, what would have been his reaction to the whole Wun Wun situation? Would he have chosen to throw him in the cells, or would he have finally snapped and told the southrons it was their own fault and to shut up?

I doubt he'd have done anything to Wun Wun---not only are the ice cells apparently ill-equipped to handle a giant (certainly one of Wun Wun's size), but there's also Ser Patrek's idiotic Darwin Award-winning actions as the instigator there (Ser Patrick might even be viewed as guilty of breaking of guest right, depending on if guest right exists between two guests of the same host, rather than just between the host and the guests themselves). If Wun Wun had just gone apeshit for no reason, that would've been one thing, but Ser Patrek attacked first, so Wun Wun was just defending himself (and Val).

Whatever plans the conspiracy was making, I think the end of ADWD indicates that the conspirators weren't necessarily operating as a well-oiled machine. We don't know whether the Pink Letter's contents were known to Marsh et al beforehand (though it's very, very possible they were clued in there), but even so, there's a pretty huge chance that the conspirators didn't realize Jon's reaction to the letter would be to gather a host of wildlings and march south. Given what they'd have known about Jon's actions thus far (he's repeatedly chosen to stay at the Wall rather than head south), his reaction to the Pink Letter quite likely shocked the conspirators greatly.

I think there's an excellent chance that the conspirators had too many moving parts in play here, and the result they get in TWOW won't be the result they intended. Jon was stabbed in front of an absolute shitload of people---northmen, wildlings, Watchmen, and Queen's Men. But the only reason there were so many people pouring out of the surrounding buildings was because Ser Patrek failed to kill Wun Wun quietly, and the commotion drew a crowd. It's not really clear if Ser Patrek was ordered to try and grab Val, or if he decided on his own to do it (to get Val's respect); if the latter, then Selyse or Bowen Marsh probably weren't calculating on his actions when one or both of them decided to assassinate Jon.

For that matter, the stabbing itself might have been the part that wasn't planned out ahead of time. Remember, Ghost didn't bite Marsh earlier in the day. It's possible that Marsh and his cronies went to the Shieldhall expecting to hear Jon either 1) finalize the plans for Hardhome (a suicide mission, by their calculations), or 2) cancel the plans for Hardhome entirely and have everyone stay at the Wall. Jon pulling out Option #3 could have thrown them for a loop, and the whole "stab him!" idea, which seems utterly idiotic, could have seemed so poorly planned because it literally had been thought up on the fly.

[Tagganaro]

Some basic speculation:

What's really interesting to me here is the total lack of reaction from Ghost to Bowen Marsh, only a few hours before the assassination attempt. If we take it that the dire wolves have some type of prophetic sense of danger (spidey sense I guess?) it's very odd. I've always assumed that Direwolves can sense any preexisting plots...i.e they can sense false smiles and impure intentions, but they can't actually predict the future. If this is the case, then it would pretty much necessitate that Bowen Marsh and co. were not planning any kind of assassination pre-Letter.

Which has interesting implications to how we view Jon's leadership I'd say, since it could then potentially be argued that Jon has "succeeded" in convincing Bowen Marsh and co. that he was right, which is something we've talked about a lot on here obviously, his failure to truly win them over. I think that's the general impression I've taken away from Jon XII, where Bowen flat out accuses him of treason, Jon responds, and then Bowen can do nothing but shut up, flush from embarrassment, and agree to do what Jon wanted him to.

Now obviously Jon responding the way he did to the letter goes beyond anything we've seen previously. Whereas before it can easily be argued that everything Jon has done has been within the purview of his Oath, here it becomes a much more difficult argument to make. Granted, I'm still not sure...Ramsay did make a pretty explicit threat to Jon and the NW, demanding hostages that Jon does not have, accusing Jon of basically kidnapping his wife and claim to power in the North, and just generally being the a-hole that Ramsay always is...When we combine this with what we know to be Ramsay's well-earned reputation for cruelty, and the fact that he outright says in the letter he has made cloaks of the spear wives skin, I'm not really sure how Jon is supposed to react to this. I mean at this point, can Jon or anyone truly think that Ramsay is a reasonable human being who can be negotiated with?

But anyway, let's assume that Bowen Marsh views this as treason (which I actually think he'd be justified in doing)...Why the heck is he crying during the assassination attempt? If Bowen thinks it's treason, isn't he gonna be angry, stiff, inflexible, uncaring...not I don't know, sympathetic as it comes across? It's just a very odd detail to include, as it seems to really go against what we know of Bowen Marsh and his extreme racist hatred of the wildlings.

Any speculation...Why does Ghost seem to have more violent reactions to Clydas, Mully, Devan Seaworth, and possibly even Borroq (although again easily explicable just being natural reaction a wolf would have to a boar as well) and maybe even Jon as well, compared to Bowen Marsh?

I don't know, there's certainly a lot to sift through with regards to this chapter, which while I generally find to be brilliant in terms of ratcheting up the tension and being a conclusion to Jon's ADWD arc, certainly leaves a lot to be desired in terms of explaining Jon's mindset, reason for his decision, and just in general his thoughts leading up to everything.

[Winter's Lass]

I don't think Jon really had a tokar---certainly not in the sense that Dany did.

I think I expressed myself incorrectly. What I meant to say is that I didn't feel like Jon had an equivalent of dany's throwing her tokar, a moment when he finally gets to say to Selyse, Bowen and Co. 'Go to the seven hells!', or something like that.

That's also what I meant when mentioning Wun Wun. Maybe not so much putting him in the cells so much as Jon reaching another compromise with Selyse' group, like keeping Wun Wun under the Watch's protection but sending him to another of the castles, maybe.

Whatever plans the conspiracy was making, I think the end of ADWD indicates that the conspirators weren't necessarily operating as a well-oiled machine.

Not only do I agree with this, but I even think, all in all, Jon's assasination has to be the most ill-planed, stupid and all around retarded assasination attempt ever. Either that or the perpetrators clearly have suicidal tendencies, as they are surrounded by wildlings who might already hate them as much as they (Bowen and Co.) hate wildlings. Somehow I doubt Bowen's wildling hatred has gone unnoticed to the majority of the people in Castle Black.

Jon has also earned, at least, the respect of the wildlings, who also need him alive in order to remain south of the Wall (Selyse has made it clear they can't stay without going over to Team R'llor and Bowen isnot a choice), so i'm pretty confident they'll fight for him right after the stabbing. I'm also pretty confident in the fact that next time we read about the Wall, it'll be all about the bloodbath that followed the stabbing.

Some basic speculation:

What's really interesting to me here is the total lack of reaction from Ghost to Bowen Marsh, only a few hours before the assassination attempt. If we take it that the dire wolves have some type of prophetic sense of danger (spidey sense I guess?) it's very odd. I've always assumed that Direwolves can sense any preexisting plots...i.e they can sense false smiles and impure intentions, but they can't actually predict the future. If this is the case, then it would pretty much necessitate that Bowen Marsh and co. were not planning any kind of assassination pre-Letter.

Any speculation...Why does Ghost seem to have more violent reactions to Clydas, Mully, Devan Seaworth, and possibly even Borroq (although again easily explicable just being natural reaction a wolf would have to a boar as well) and maybe even Jon as well, compared to Bowen Marsh?

I've previously considered the possibility of the direwolves having as you said a spider-sense, but after re-reading some of Jon's and Bran's (the ones with the wolf dreams/warging) I've started thinking that maybe it's not about the direwolves having special powers so much as their having a connection to humans.

In one of Bran's chapters (I think it's him, could be Jon), when his thoughts are sort of mixed with Summer's, Summer thinks that his siblings all had names in the human tongue, and that while he couldn't repeat them / remember them, he could tell it was their names. That makes me think that maybe the direwolves can't understand a human language in term of knowing words but they can understand what they mean (specially if we consider they were trained).

Maybe that's whats happening here, the direwolves can't understand what people say word by word but thy can understand when others talk of the Stark kids. Grey Wind being aggresive with the Freys and Westerlins might not mean that he knew what was going to happen, but that he had heard them at some point or the other talking about Robb. He may not have understood 'We'll kill Robb at the feast' but known that they wanted to hurt Robb.

On the previous reactions to others, I can't remember what happened with Devan and Clydas, but in Mully's case, Ghost attack might not have been about hurting him so much as Ghost reaching Jon. The feeling of 'tension in the air' is already at the begining of the chapter and keeps getting worse, so maybe Ghost is expressing some of Jon's nervousness and anger and attacks Mully trying to leave the room. When Jon tries to touch him, Ghost actually bristles and almost bites him.

If the assasination attempt was planned on the spot or close to it, and Ghost never heard them talking about Jon (and even then I don't think they would be anywhere near Ghost as Jon being a warg isn't that much of a secret) it would explain his lack of reaction to Bowen

[Harlaw's Book]

I wonder if we're taking for granted that Ghost sensed the right threat. Varamyr was certain that he could've taken Ghost away from Jon. Later Mel does mess with his warg bond to the point where Ghost considers Jon a stranger. Although Jon's powers have grown, I still think he is vulnerable to having Ghost taken away or messed with, which might explain why Ghost was more hostile to Mully and didn't react to Marsh. There are three possibly four suspects that could've taken Ghost away from Jon: Borroq, Mel, Bloodraven, and Bran.

Some speculation on Bloodraven:

It seems almost certain that Bloodraven is warging the raven. Ghost is possibly an instrument for Bloodraven too either indirectly because he sent the direwolves, or maybe Bloodraven has more direct control over Ghost. I bring up the latter possibility because Ghost was unaccounted for a long time during ASOS.

Ghost and Mormont's raven have always been involved in the previous times Jon pondered leaving the Night's Watch. In AGOT Ghost gives away Jon's position to Pyp, Grenn, etc. However, Jon still isn't convinced to stay until Mormont, with the raven appearing to agree with what Mormont says, talks Jon into it. Fast forward to ASOS, Ghost comes back at the right moment to help Jon makes his decision. Then the raven helps with the election. Bloodraven wanted to Jon to stay in the NW at the time. However, I think Bloodraven has plans for Jon, so he might've messed with Ghost or allowed Ghost to be messed with because it fits with his plan.

As for the raven, I can't remember it saying anything during this chapter --kinda odd. All I remember is that it acted as agitated as Ghost. But just because it's agitated doesn't mean it wants to stop Jon from being attacked. My pet theory is that if both Bloodraven and Bran are both warging Mormont's raven, then maybe the bird is agitated because they are fighting for control over the bird because Bran doesn't agree with Bloodraven's plan.

[Ragnorak]

Another observation I noticed in parallel to Dany in this chapter:

Dragons and Giants

I think there are some interesting parallels between the Wun Wun losing control here with the circumstances regarding Dany’s dragons.

First, there is the deconstruction of the old fantasy trope. Much like Quentyn, Ser Patrek intended to battle with a monster to obtain a boon in return (glory/the princess) and died for his efforts. However am beginning to wonder if this giant turning violent isn’t somehow an expression of Jon’s repressed rage being released much like the rogue dragon’s are an expression of a part Dany’s personality also being released after being held captive. Before this scene it looks like Jon is on the verge of finally cracking, the same as Dany was in the pits. Also I found his “He did not want them (Bowen and his lot) very similar to Dany’s “they are his (Hizdahr’s) people. It looks like they are both done with people like Marsh and Hizdahr and the positions they are subjected to assume because of them so they declare their desire to free themselves from them. Jon by siding with the wildings and taking a stand against Bolton, Dany by dropping her floppy ears before going away in Drogon. The main difference was that while Dany got to fly away Jon was prevented to leave and had to stay and faced the consequences of his decisions, the good ones and the bad. Dany made it because she had one dragin still free while Jon had Ghost locked away in his cell.

Going back to the parallels between Giants and dragons, in some cultures the myth of the giants alludes to the existence of an immense and primary being from whose sacrifice creation arose. I find this interesting because we have yet another element associating Jon with a sacrifice required to bring life, much like the Corn King allusions. There is also the number of elements many of us associate with the AA myth.

One of Dany's major themes is her identity conflict and the dragons represent one side of that conflict. Jon doesn't seem to have a direct parallel for this. He is called half a Wildling but that involves the two external sides he's trying to unite which has its own Dany parallel. With the Arya doll swinging reference it would seem to be family related. Could Jon be identifying the Starks dying out with The Last of the Giants?

In stone halls they burn their great fires,

in stone halls they forge their sharp spears.

Whilst I walk alone in the mountains,

with no true companion but tears.

They hunt me with dogs in the daylight,

they hunt me with torches by night.

For these men who are small can never stand tall,

whilst giants still walk in the light.

Oooooooh, I am the LAST of the giants,

so learn well the words of my song.

For when I am gone the singing will fade,

and the silence shall last long and long.

The Last of the Starks? The Boltons are in the stone hall of Winterfell, the dog hunting seems to apply to Ramsey, and the Boltons can never stand tall as Kings in Winter or even Lords of the North while Jon lives. Is this the side of Jon's internal conflict that Wun Wun represents mirroring Drogon?

[Blisscraft]

Ragnorak - I LOVE this connection between Jon, the Starks and the last of the giants. It's a common theme in ME literature, the notion of ubi sunt. GRRM is always pushing ideas around and this certainly seems to be one of them.

[Winterfellian]

One of Dany's major themes is her identity conflict and the dragons represent one side of that conflict. Jon doesn't seem to have a direct parallel for this. He is called half a Wildling but that involves the two external sides he's trying to unite which has its own Dany parallel.

I agree with you about Dany but I do feel there is something to be said about Jon and his relation with Ghost. While I believe their connection is stronger that Dany's connection with her dragons there is a side of it that Jon seems very unwilling to tamper with, mostly the warging skills. He probably grew up thinking about the skinchangers as the monsters depicted in Old Nan's stories yet his time with the wildings certainly teach Jon the mistake of his prior notions but he's still unwilling to embrace his own skill. On one point he even thinks to himself after inadvertently warging Ghost- "I am not a wolf". Back in ASOS when Stannis tells him straight to his face that he's heard Jon is a warg Jon's response was "I had a direwolf named Ghost". I might be wrong but I don't think Jon has ever fully acknowledge to himself that he's indeed a warg even though he fits all the requirements. Is kinda like he's denying this side of, maybe not his identity, but certainly of himself in a similar way that Dany tries to deny her dragon side. In the end he can't escape this no more than Dany can escape her dragons. They are part of them and I find it ironic that one of the reasoms Dany managed to survive is because one of her dragons was still free while Jon's direwolf remained locked (by himself!) when he needed him the most. Jon's last word being Ghost might be the final barrier to be broken for Jon to fully embrace his gift.

This is something I thought about way before this chapter. I just never posted it because I don't have a satisfactory reason for Jon to be in denial about his gift. Great call about Jon, the Starks and the last Giants!

About the conspiracy

I believe the final act of the conspirators was brought out of despair. Since I dislike the theories about there being magic involved I can't think of any thing that could have prompt such an idiotic suicidal move. The fact that Marsh was crying for me is a testament that they knew their lives were forfeited once everyone found out but they were dirven by a fanatical attempt to "save the Watch" and the status quo men like Marsh have live their entire lives with. Oathbreaking or not, Jon's march to stop Ramsey would have fully invoved the NW in the ongoing war. There woud not have been a turning back after that and the only world that Marsh and his men knew, already half shattered by the presene of wildings would have been shattered forever so they couldn't allow it.

Analizing Marsh's conspiracy I agree with Tze:

Whatever plans the conspiracy was making, I think the end of ADWD indicates that the conspirators weren't necessarily operating as a well-oiled machine.

There might have been a half baked prexisting plot that was rendered useless when Jon announce his intentions for marching South. Going back to ASOS (sorry about this) I feel the basic scenario is slightly similar to the conditions leading to Mormont's own murder. In Mormont's case, there was an ongoing conspiracy but, to borrow Tze's words, it was clear that the conspirators weren't functioning as a well oiled machine. This might have been the case with Jon given that they couldn't stop him from opening the gates to the wildings. However, like with Jon, an outside threat rendered said conspiracy useless. When the Old Bear is finally killed it is not because of the reasons that had brought the conspirators together in the first place but because of a completely new unforshadowed cirscumstance that rendered their situation through their eyes even more hopeless (Craster's refusal of more food/the NW getting sucked into affairs of the realm in what they obviously deem as the loser side) and so they succumbed to despair and commit their act of betrayal. In essence, while there might have been plotting against Jon it was Jon's final decision as LC what prompted them to move faster however recklessly or suicidal to stop Jon. It was a spur of the moment and a desperate act. I like to think that given the parallels between the two conspiracies that since Mormont didn't survive his attack, in contrast Jon will. Though that might be the fan in me :)

[tze]

One of Dany's major themes is her identity conflict and the dragons represent one side of that conflict. Jon doesn't seem to have a direct parallel for this. He is called half a Wildling but that involves the two external sides he's trying to unite which has its own Dany parallel. With the Arya doll swinging reference it would seem to be family related. Could Jon be identifying the Starks dying out with The Last of the Giants?

The Last of the Starks? The Boltons are in the stone hall of Winterfell, the dog hunting seems to apply to Ramsey, and the Boltons can never stand tall as Kings in Winter or even Lords of the North while Jon lives. Is this the side of Jon's internal conflict that Wun Wun represents mirroring Drogon?

That's a very interesting idea. One of the themes of "The Last of the Giants" appears to be the idea of killing the thing that's greater than you on the assumption that once it's gone, you can pretend to be great because there's nothing left to highlight your inadequacies. Killing all the giants doesn't make the humans any less "small", it just lets them pretend that they're really "tall" in a way that they simply can't do while the giants still live. The Lannisters, for example, harp on and on about being lions---but Leaf points out that the great lions of the western hills are all dead, and though she never specifies which "great lions" she means, Jaime wonders in his fever dream in ASOS if there's a cave lion waiting in the dark beneath Casterly Rock, which heavily implies that cave lions once lived in the Westerlands; I'd say chances are good that cave lions are the "great lions" that Leaf calls extinct. (And given that the Lannisters have a gold lion sigil at Casterly Rock, and the Reynes had a red lion sigil at Castamere . . . well, we're never told what the sigil of House Casterly was, but I'll bet it was a cave lion.) If cave lions still existed in the Westerlands, the Lannisters wouldn't be able to trumpet their magnificent sigil like they do, because lions look far less powerful with cave lions in the picture. It's only because the cave lions are all dead---possibly even hunted out by the early Lannisters---that the lion-associated Lannisters can look powerful.

I think Jon does associate the Starks with the giants. Jon, throughout ADWD, is associated with wanting to save things from extinction: the giants, the tongue of the First Men, etc. He doesn't need to destroy these things to make the Starks look powerful and unique by comparison because the Starks, unlike the Boltons, are already "tall", not "small". With Dany and the Targ legacy, things are more muddled, primarily because of the Doom. The Targs were not Kings of Valyria, they were one noble family among many, and apparently not even the most powerful family. The only reason they can trumpet their superspecial uniqueness, their "blood of the dragon", is because the Doom killed off everyone else whose existence would've put the Targs' claims in proper perspective. Rather like how if the Stark kids started killing off every skinchanger they could find, it wouldn't make skinchanging a uniquely Stark power, it would just create the illusion of such.

I think both Jon and Dany do have directly paralleling internal identity conflicts---with Jon, the conflict is between being a man vs being a wolf, and with Dany, it's between being a mother and being a dragon. The difference there is that Jon literally becomes a direwolf, while Dany only (eventually) rides---but does not become---a literal dragon. We've seen Dany fetishizing her all-too-human capacity for destruction as "the dragon", and she swings wildly from one extreme to another because she does not accept that both her compassion and her temper are aspects of a single human whole. She associates her temper with "the dragon", implicitly identifying her very human darker impulses as somehow "separate" from her humanity. With Jon, the issue exists on a different level, because he literally is a man and a direwolf simultaneously. He doesn't compare his actions to what a direwolf would do because his perspective doesn't permit him to project his human qualities onto "the direwolf", as he knows firsthand exactly what a literal direwolf does and feels.

[Lummel]

I agree with Tze's (and others) reading that the Ides of Marsh is a spur of the moment reaction to what happened in the Shieldhall. There might be a group of brothers around Marsh who had agreed that it might come to a point when they might have to take the ultimate action against Jon, ETA in principal but there seems to be nothing planned or that could have been reasonably planned in the circumstances around Jon's actual death stabbing ( :) ) ETA which looks more like a chance seizure of an opportunity or a sudden reaction to a circumstance by a few people.

Jon's reaction to the Pink Letter was not predictable, nor was he surrounded by black brothers who could have entrapped him into going south. There is nobody there saying that Ramsey is so wild that he'll come north for sure, or telling Jon that Castle Black or the Gift are indefensible, or that attack (even in winter blizzard conditions) is the best form of defence. For me that means that it seems extremely unlikely that the Pink Letter originates from the Wall or from among the Watch.

We know from earlier chapters that Val was sleeping in the same tower as Wun Wun

"Freedom of the castle you shall have, but I regret to say you must remain a captive. I can promise that you will not be troubled by unwanted visitors, however. My own men guard Hardin's Tower, not the queen's. And Wun Wun sleeps in the entry hall."

"A giant as protector? Even Dalla could not boast of that."

(Jon XI p704) and that Jon had told Ser Patrek that it was the Wildling custom to steal the woman they want to marry.

"Amongst the free folk, when a man desires a woman, he steals her, and thus proves his strength, his cunning, and his courage. The suitor risks a savage beating if he is caught by the women's kin, and worse than that if she finds him unworthy".

(Jon XIII p901) It looks as though Ser Patrek, unfortunately, was trying to apply his understanding of wildling customs gained from Jon but encountered a giant sized obstacle. Better, perhaps, had he stuck to the civilised custom of giving flowers...(although Wun Wun would have probably eaten them).

Knowing that Wun Wun reacts poorly to the sight of weapons one might have predicted that this would go wrong if one had been party to Jon's conversation with Selyse and Co. and knew how arrogant Ser Patrek was - but it was a hardly an event whose timing could be relied upon. Which again pushes me to think that the Ides of Marsh are a spur of the moment action - taking advantage of a situation, possibly (considering the tears) reflecting how extreme Marsh and men are feeling at that moment.

ETA - thanks Winter's Lass for the translation, that really does add quite a bit to the answer!

[Tagganaro]

I agree with Lummel and others (I'm not sure there's a question anyway, seems obvious to me..) that Ser Patrek is most definitely attempting to "steal" Val at this point. We also know how angry and frustrated Patrek is with losing all his land holdings...This is his attempt to get it back, and to quote Axell Florent the Amazing, Val is rather nubile as well so it's a win-win for him.

So it seems as if Marsh and co. piggybacked this surprise moment to attempt their assassination. What I'm left wondering about is the absence of 2 relatively prominent characters in all the proceedings: 1 is of course Othell Yarwyck (who I would have believed would have been involved in the assassination) and 2 is the aforementioned Axell Florent the Amazing (who I would have thought would be more likely to go after Val than Patrek). Interesting that these 2 guys seem to be somewhat conspicuously absent here in the final chapter in moments where you would think they would be involved.

Unfortunately for all of us, Ser Godry the Giantslayer was not at Castle Black anymore, because I'd love to see what would happen with him and a giant when the Giant is not running away with his back turned.

[Blisscraft]

Crime of opportunity or passion? Planned crime, but botched by intervening causes (one big giant + one stupid Southron suitor; one nasty pink letter; or both)?

The plan was hatched. Maybe not well formed, (but there's no way to know because we're only privy to Jon's POV and there are no shades of Godfather 2 and Michael's son's baptism and its perfect outcome) but this has been coming like a slow train. It's like Quentyn's attempt to jack the dragons. There's a plan, but there are other dangerous forces at work. One bad decision (one badly timed cross bow shot) can render a plan useless.

As readers, we've seen the resentment building against Jon amongst the NW. We've heard Mel's warnings. Whatever the plan was, the attempt on Jon's life is extremely personal. It seems to be driven by betrayal. That's why this is a stabbing and not a sniper's arrow. To stab someone with a dagger requires close contact. It means looking the victim in the eyes, feeling the victim's labored breath on your own face and the warm blood flowing onto your hands from the victim's wound. It's no wonder that Bowen cries.

[butterbumps!]

This is slightly unusual, but I decided to do a full breakdown of this chapter, focused on Jon’s decisions and my theory regarding the assassination attempt. (___________________ denotes a shift in mood, setting, or though pattern)

The meeting with Selyse has already been discussed, so I’m going to fast forward to Jon’s interaction with Mel. She solicits Jon to take on the stairs, imploring him to speak with her.

Aside: Jon notes that the way her dress moves it seems as if she were floating. I wanted to bring this up, because I kind of suspect she has spent a lot of time in front of a mirror trying to perfect this effect, lol.

Jon explains to Mel that he won’t keep Ghost by his side because it makes the Queen uncomfortable, as well as could cause problems with the boar. It’s interesting how politics keep coming between the Stark children and their direwolves. Robb appeased the Freys by keeping Grey Wind chained, Arya had to beat Nymeria to save her from the Queen’s wrath, Lady was chained up and executed as Nymeria’s proxy, Summer and Shaggydog were chained in the Godswood because others were afraid. In the case of Jon, Robb, Bran and Rickon, they had to chain up a part of themselves, as well as a piece of their personal protection, in order to appease others, namely, others that ultimately sought to them harm. I see this a quite similar to Dany and her dragons- they are a piece of her, her strongest weapon and most dangerous, the basis of her strength, and to appease others she has them chained.

Mel makes it clear that she is desperate to keep Jon at the Wall, but I wonder, to what end? She tries to convince him to stay, appealing to the fact that Hardhome is futile: “Your ships are lost. All of them. Not a man shall return.” Let’s take a look at this vision more closely, though, from Mel’s POV chapter:

Snowflakes swirled from a dark sky and ashes rose to meet them, the grey and the white whirling around each other as flaming arrows arced above a wooden wall and dead things shambled silent through the cold, beneath a great grey cliff where fires burned inside a hundred caves. Then the wind rose and the white mist came sweeping in, impossibly cold, and one by one the fires went out. Afterward, only the skulls remained.”

Death. The skulls are death.

I’m not sure if this is the vision that tells her of Hardhome, or if she has had another in the intervening period. I think she’s seeing this as Hardhome, and I confess that I had been as well. But the more I look at this, it makes no mention of the sea or the shore. Now that I look at it, it actually reminds me a lot of the Cave that Bran + Co found, where the wights attacked them, which we know are filled with bones and skulls. She thinks that the absence of human life indicates failure at Hardhome, but what if this has something to do with those caves instead? That those skulls indicate death long past?

More interesting to me is the fact that Mel makes a big leap here and extracts symbolic meaning from the literal vision of skulls. I think this is important with regard to her vision of Jon, and her constant “daggers in the dark” warning:

The flames crackled softly, and in their crackling she heard the whispered name Jon Snow. His long face floated before her, limned in tongues of red and orange, appearing and disappearing again, a shadow half seen behind a fluttering curtain. Now he was a man, now a wolf, now a man again. But the skulls were here as well, the skulls were all around him. Melisandre had seen his danger before, had tried to warn the boy of it. Enemies all around him, daggers in the dark. He would not listen.

Unbelievers never listened until it was too late.

So from the image of skulls around Jon, she concludes that death is coming for him, and has articulated her interpretation as “danger, enemies all around him, and daggers in the dark.” I think that this is a big leap to make from this vision. We know that Jon has a recurring dream of the Winterfell crypts, and many of us believe that this is some kind of significance for him there. Personally, I think that Mel’s vision might not be foreshadowing Jon’s own death, but rather the fact that he must descend into the “realm of the dead” (i.e. crypts, where the literal skulls are all around him) in order to proceed on his way.

As I see it, is that Mel clearly forces her expectations on visions, draws potentially wrong conclusions, and most importantly, thinks about how “unbelievers never listen until it’s too late.” Shortly after these visions, Mel hears the news of the ranger’s deaths that she foresaw and thinks “The day has come. Lord Snow will have to listen to me now.” She told Jon of the danger of the rangers in order to coax him into trusting her, but it doesn’t work. I think she is growing increasingly desperate in this regard.

Back to Chapter 13, Jon asks Mel if her visions are so accurate, “Where is Stannis? What of Rattleshirt and his Spearwives? Where is my sister?” Mel replies: “All your questions shall be answered. Look to the skies, Lord Snow. And when you have your answers, send to me. Winter is almost upon us now. I am your only hope.”

This raises alarm bells for me. We’ve seen examples of Mel’s visions. I find Mel’s knowledge of the arrival of a letter that will explain Arya, Stannis and Mance to be awfully pointed and more specific than her other visions. Did she actually see the letter in the fires and did the vision maintain itself long enough for her to have read it thoroughly? Doesn’t this seem odd?

___________________

In Jon’s quarters, he’s told of Ghost’s attempted bite of Mully. This has already been discussed, but I do find it curious that Mully is one of Melisandre’s converts. What I’d found even stranger though is that Ghost bares his teeth and bristles at Jon when Jon attempts to pet him. This reminds me a bit of the scene with Mel at the Wall when Ghost seems not to recognize him. Has Mel stopped by lately?

Even odder. Bowen enters Jon’s chambers “snuffling.” Had he already been crying? I do agree with many who have said that the attack seemed very spur of the moment, bolstered by the fact that Ghost isn’t attacking Bowen. But has Bowen already broached the topic of the assassination with someone? And has someone interfered with Ghost’s senses again?

During this discussion, Jon openly criticizes the way Marsh and Yarwyck provide advice. Jon asks for advice on who should man the empty castles, and they refuse to answer. Jon implores them to be of help, that he wants to hear their suggestions, that he’s trying to please them, or at least factor in their thoughts. They refuse, and Bowen says essentially, “who cares, let the wildlings die,” while Yarwyck suggests letting Tormund lead the expedition. Yarwyck’s answer is actually a good suggestion, but he does so for the wrong reasons. At any rate, Bowen and Yarwyck leave, seemingly complaisant and obedient.

___________________

Now is Jon’s first big breaking point, as I see it. Jon thinks of how this is all “Pointless. Pointless, fruitless, hopeless.” He reflects on the good men that have been lost again, seeing the men that are left as empty shells.

___________________

Tormund arrives, and he and Jon meet. They share a laugh about the raven, and at Gerrick Kingsblood’s expense, and Jon and Tormund get down to the business of the ranging.

On a side note, Tormund indirectly tells us that Winterfell truly is the reinforcement for the Watch with his mention of Raymun Redbeard’s getting through and being repelled by the Starks and Umbers.

___________________

They are interrupted by Mully, who insists that Jon immediately read a letter that had just arrived on the basis that Clydas is shaken up. Why does the letter frighten Clydas so badly? Jon sees the smear of pink wax and the word “Bastard” and says, “ ‘You were right to come at once.’ You were right to be afraid.” I understand why Jon would fear this letter, given the fact it might contain news of the Mance mission and Mel’s prediction, but why is Clydas so shaken? Had Clydas already opened the letter and resealed it? Is this why there is only a smear of wax? Who else might be privy to its contents if it was opened at the Wall?

Onto the letter itself, it does in fact give responses to the three questions Jon was told would be answered about Arya, Stannis and Mance. I’ve written out my interpretation of the letter elsewhere, but for the sake of completeness, here are my thoughts on the matter. I personally think there’s a strong case this came from Mance, under Melisandre’s instruction:

Your false king is dead, bastard. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore.

Jon is explicitly instructed to go to Mel immediately, which we know is precisely what she’s been trying to get Jon to do since she showed up.

Your false king’s friends are dead. Their heads upon the walls of Winterfell. Come see them, bastard. Your false king lied, and so did you. You told the world you burned the King-Beyond-the-Wall. Instead you sent him to Winterfell to steal my bride from me.

I think this is clearly trying to instigate Jon to action; to believe that the situation is so hopeless that he turns to Mel.

I will have my bride back. If you want Mance Rayder back, come and get him. I have him in a cage for all the north to see, proof of your lies. The cage is cold, but I have made him a warm cloak from the skins of the six whores who came with him to Winterfell.

This is the most interesting part, to me. This has an awful lot of text devoted to Mance, which seems a kind of code: "I have him in a cage for all the north to see, proof of your lies." Now, he's in Rattleshirt's cage of bones, and these words also recall the burning of "Mance" in a cage, and "Rattleshirts" words to Jon during their dual: "[stannis] burned the man he had to, for all the world to see."

I want my bride back. I want the false king’s queen. I want his daughter and his red witch. I want his wildling princess. I want his little prince, the wildling babe. And I want my Reek. Send them to me, bastard, and I will not trouble you or your black crows. Keep them from me, and I will cut out your bastard’s heart and eat it.

The only people who call the NW “crows” are wildlings. Ever. This is a really odd combination of hostages. It practically insures that Jon, the Queen’s men and any Wildlings will want to revolt against Ramsay. Plus, I think the reference to “bride” is a message that “Arya” is not Arya. The fact that this mentions Reek makes me convinced that it came from someone within Winterfell, but not using “Theon” helps maintain the alleged authenticity if it’s found by Ramsay-loyal forces.

And finally, there’s the signature:

Ramsay Bolton

Trueborn Lord of Winterfell

I find it strange that someone who signs “Trueborn Lord of Winterfell” would use pink wax to sign this letter, rather than the Direwolf grey of Winterfell. If Ramsay was really trying to salt Jon’s wounds, wouldn’t the grey wax be a way to reinforce this? And wouldn’t he have more than just a smear either way?

We don’t get any of Jon’s immediate thoughts. From Tormund, we see that he’s patently horrified by what he’s read. Jon empties the room of everyone but Tormund, and reads him the letter. Tormund thinks it’s “buggered.” Tormund asks Jon what is meant by Mance in a cage since Mance is allegedly dead. Jon almost says “That was Rattleshirt,” but catches himself, instead remarking on Mel and how she warned him of this. He recalls her words from earlier, to send for her when he has his answers. Tormund asks whether this could be a forgery, thinks of the mention of Mance, and this compels him to believe that there is truth in it.

___________________

Immediately, we plunge into Jon’s thoughts:

..."what do you mean to do now, crow?"

Jon flexed the fingers of his sword hand. The Night's Watch takes no part. He closed his fist and opened it again. What you propose is nothing less than treason. He thought of Robb, with snowflakes melting in his hair. Kill the boy and let the man be born. He thought of Bran, clambering up a tower wall, agile as a monkey. Of Rickon's breathless laughter. Of Sansa, brushing out Lady's coat and singing to herself. You know nothing, Jon Snow. He thought of Arya, her hair as tangled as a bird's nest. I made him a warm cloak from the skins of the six whores who came with him to Winterfell...I want my bride back...I want my bride back...I want my bride back...

"I think we had best change the plan."

I think Jon’s thinking about his siblings as casualties of the War of the 5 kings- the cost of the Iron Throne. I believe he thinks them all dead or beyond saving- even Arya at this point. He's thinking about the fact that he did nothing to save any of them, and that all of this came about because of the stupid Iron Throne. I think he's deciding to take direct action now, not as vengeance or trying to save anyone, but because someone has to stand up for what’s right, and he’s in the position to do this.

His thoughts about his family are punctuated by phrases others have told him- “the Watch takes no part” (common saying), “what you propose is nothing less than treason” (Bowen regarding the wildling relocation), “kill the boy and let the man be born” (Maester Aemon), “you know nothing” (Val and Ygritte). All of these phrases have played a huge role in tempering him, strengthening his ability to be focused on his position as LC, as well as life lessons. I find this fascinating. It starts with the strictest rule- the neutrality clause, then become more and more about thoughts of “rightness” than his enumerated duties as LC.

He is killing the boy here, but it “all depends on what side you’re standing,” to recall another Ygritte-ism. He is killing the impulse to stand by any longer when he knows he is the only one who can take care of this now. Where lack of discipline sent him from the Wall back in aGoT, a different sort of discipline is motivating him to leave. It takes courage, strength and discipline to follow strict orders, but it takes even more to break those orders once you fully understand them when the situation compels you to do so for the right reasons. Here he “knows nothing” because he’s kept out of this for too long, and is making stand. (imo).

___________________

Then we have a 2 hour ellipsis where Martin has said that Jon and Tormund discuss their plans. I still have two major questions:

1. Does Jon tell Tormund about Mance?

2. Does Jon give Tormund further justifications for his going south?

And once again, Jon chains his double/ protector for the sake of putting others at ease.

___________________

Jon’s thoughts alone in the Shieldhall are the second big breaking point in my opinion. (I took a lot of this from my oathbreaking thread):

We get 5 paragraphs of Jon’s description of the room: “Then as now, when a knight took the black, tradition decreed that he set aside his former arms and take up the plain black shield of the brotherhood. The shields thus discarded would hang in the Shieldhall.” We get a list of the shields that had hung, then are told that when a knight dies, their shield is taken down, and that “Over the years and centuries, fewer and fewer knights had taken the black.” It no longer made sense for the knights to dine apart so the Shieldhall was abandoned—it’s also decrepit, rat-infested and, cold and dysfunctional. Now there were fewer than a dozen shields, and the Wildlings outnumbered the “crows” 5-1. This is the first time (I think) where Jon refers to the Watchmen as "crows." I think this is very significant.

I think this is telling us something different than I’d originally thought. I think that this passage is a continuation of Jon’s thoughts on Bowen and the quality of men, and how the Watch is basically an empty shell, unable and unwilling to perform its true service. The Shieldhall was chosen before the letter arrived, so I’m not saying this is an active reaction to the letter and has symbolic value from that, but I think there is a lot of important metaphor going on here, since we’re reading Jon’s descriptions of the hall, which are a reaction to the letter.

The Shieldhall is essentially an analogue to the NW in Jon’s thoughts- there are few good men, good men choose not to come to the Watch, the Watch has lost all prestige and is not taken seriously by anyone on the inside or out. Like the Shieldhall, the Watch is infested with rats, is dysfunctional, has been abandoned, and has abandoned its duty. The Shieldhall is the place where men retire their family sigil, symbolizing their severing ties with previous loyalties. On the flip side, these sigils literally loom over them from the rafters, a haunt of their past lives. Interestingly, Jon is inverting this, presenting his case from black to intervene on behalf of Winterfell. At any rate, I think he has decided that the NW is institutionally useless.

___________________

So through the description of the Shieldhall, I deduce that Jon finds the current state of the Watch useless, dilapidated and impossible to work with. From here, I think that Jon’s speech might be playing to his audience, that is, he sees that wildlings outnumber the Watch by a huge number and will likely be more useful to his needs. I think that the way he frames his speech is meant to appeal more to the wildlings than to the Watchmen, which explains certain omissions and phrasings I think.

At Jon’s left are Yarwyck and Bowen with their men: Wick, Left hand Lew and Alf of Runnymudd are named. Tormund is at his side with the “let’s all settle down” horn. Jon sees Mel enter just as he’s saying that Tormund will be leading the ranging to Hardhome.

Borroq challenges him, asking where he’ll be; he thinks that Jon should lead the ranging himself, and not stay safe behind the Wall. This is interesting. Bowen wants Jon to remain and let the wildlings go, but the wildlings want Jon to lead them. I think this may be a wildling-institutional difference, where they believe the man asking for the risk should be taking the risk himself as well.

Then Jon says he’s riding south and reads the letter. The Shieldhall goes mad, and Tormund blows his horn.

The Nights Watch takes no part in the wars of the Seven Kingdoms. It is not for us to oppose the Bastard of Bolton, to avenge Stannis Baratheon, to defend his widow and his daughter. This creature who makes cloaks from the skins of women has sworn to cut my heart out, and I mean to make him answer for those words…but I will not ask my brothers to forswear their vows.

The Nights Watch will make for Hardhome. I ride to Winterfell alone, unless…is there any man who will come stand with me?

The men overwhelmingly offer support and seem genuinely excited/ happy/ pumped about this. Jon happily thinks, “I have my swords, and we are coming for you, Bastard.”

I find this interesting. The way he phrased this almost sounded as though he did not want any Watchmen to come. And indeed, he thinks that no one can say he made his men forsake their vows for him. The reasons he gives the men pertain to doing the right thing—in fact, Arya doesn’t even come up again, nor any other mention of personal loyalty. The letter does explicitly threaten the Watch via a threat to the head of the organization. He doesn’t frame this at as all either NW business nor family business…I do strongly believe that he intends to take care of this issue and return to his post, stronger than before, but he doesn’t take about this. Perhaps this is omitted because of the values of his audience? That he could attract the support of the wildlings while leaving the NW men to attend their duties, is my guess. The fact that he ponders the Shieldhall and its meaning for so long just prior to this makes me think that he still feels ties and loyalty (in some fashion) to the Watch, but that there is something else he must do first.

Jon immediately notices that Bowen and Co have slipped out, and right after that sees that Mel is gone as well. (This sent alarm bells in my mind- I think this is when the plan was put into motion). Jon is elated. He doesn’t care about Bowen’s absence, thinking that he “did not need them now.”

___________________

Jon leaves with the intention of telling Selyse, and think he’ll then go to Mel to see exactly where Ramsay is. I think that it’s clear Jon does not know if Ramsay is at Winterfell or already marching north to collect his hostages.

He’s sidetracked by screams, and tries to maintain order as the giant rips apart Ser Patrek. Wick slashes his throat, Jon disarms him and he recoils as if to say “Not me.” Then Bowen, crying, stabs him in the stomach, and two unnamed men add two more stabs. Wick is strange here. Wick was actually helpful with Jon previously; when Bowen was a negative nancy in the store rooms, Wick was kind of helpful, suggesting that they could always hunt if food became scarce. I find his participation in this, as well as his reaction, quite strange.

At any rate, my theory is that Mel put these men up to it. Mel is convinced that Jon faces “daggers in the dark” as per her skull vision, and she is also of the belief that “unbelievers never listen until it is too late.” I think that the fact that Jon did not come to her immediately after getting the letter was the last straw; she felt compelled to start making these visions true so that Jon would follow her. I’m not sure what she did- I’m assuming some kind of political manipulation or threat, perhaps assurance that they would come to no harm even. But I do think that this may have been Mel’s way of keeping Jon at the Wall while making a hail mary play to win his trust.

[Alia of the knife]

This is slightly unusual, but I decided to do a full breakdown of this chapter, focused on Jon’s decisions and my theory regarding the assassination attempt. (___________________ denotes a shift in mood, setting, or though pattern)

The meeting with Selyse has already been discussed, so I’m going to fast forward to Jon’s interaction with Mel. She solicits Jon to take on the stairs, imploring him to speak with her.

Aside: Jon notes that the way her dress moves it seems as if she were floating. I wanted to bring this up, because I kind of suspect she has spent a lot of time in front of a mirror trying to perfect this effect, lol.

Jon explains to Mel that he won’t keep Ghost by his side because it makes the Queen uncomfortable, as well as could cause problems with the boar. It’s interesting how politics keep coming between the Stark children and their direwolves. Robb appeased the Freys by keeping Grey Wind chained, Arya had to beat Nymeria to save her from the Queen’s wrath, Lady was chained up and executed as Nymeria’s proxy, Summer and Shaggydog were chained in the Godswood because others were afraid. In the case of Jon, Robb, Bran and Rickon, they had to chain up a part of themselves, as well as a piece of their personal protection, in order to appease others, namely, others that ultimately sought to them harm. I see this a quite similar to Dany and her dragons- they are a piece of her, her strongest weapon and most dangerous, the basis of her strength, and to appease others she has them chained.

Mel makes it clear that she is desperate to keep Jon at the Wall, but I wonder, to what end? She tries to convince him to stay, appealing to the fact that Hardhome is futile: “Your ships are lost. All of them. Not a man shall return.” Let’s take a look at this vision more closely, though, from Mel’s POV chapter:

I’m not sure if this is the vision that tells her of Hardhome, or if she has had another in the intervening period. I think she’s seeing this as Hardhome, and I confess that I had been as well. But the more I look at this, it makes no mention of the sea or the shore. Now that I look at it, it actually reminds me a lot of the Cave that Bran + Co found, where the wights attacked them, which we know are filled with bones and skulls. She thinks that the absence of human life indicates failure at Hardhome, but what if this has something to do with those caves instead? That those skulls indicate death long past?

More interesting to me is the fact that Mel makes a big leap here and extracts symbolic meaning from the literal vision of skulls. I think this is important with regard to her vision of Jon, and her constant “daggers in the dark” warning:

So from the image of skulls around Jon, she concludes that death is coming for him, and has articulated her interpretation as “danger, enemies all around him, and daggers in the dark.” I think that this is a big leap to make from this vision. We know that Jon has a recurring dream of the Winterfell crypts, and many of us believe that this is some kind of significance for him there. Personally, I think that Mel’s vision might not be foreshadowing Jon’s own death, but rather the fact that he must descend into the “realm of the dead” (i.e. crypts, where the literal skulls are all around him) in order to proceed on his way.

As I see it, is that Mel clearly forces her expectations on visions, draws potentially wrong conclusions, and most importantly, thinks about how “unbelievers never listen until it’s too late.” Shortly after these visions, Mel hears the news of the ranger’s deaths that she foresaw and thinks “The day has come. Lord Snow will have to listen to me now.” She told Jon of the danger of the rangers in order to coax him into trusting her, but it doesn’t work. I think she is growing increasingly desperate in this regard.

Back to Chapter 13, Jon asks Mel if her visions are so accurate, “Where is Stannis? What of Rattleshirt and his Spearwives? Where is my sister?” Mel replies: “All your questions shall be answered. Look to the skies, Lord Snow. And when you have your answers, send to me. Winter is almost upon us now. I am your only hope.”

This raises alarm bells for me. We’ve seen examples of Mel’s visions. I find Mel’s knowledge of the arrival of a letter that will explain Arya, Stannis and Mance to be awfully pointed and more specific than her other visions. Did she actually see the letter in the fires and did the vision maintain itself long enough for her to have read it thoroughly? Doesn’t this seem odd?

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In Jon’s quarters, he’s told of Ghost’s attempted bite of Mully. This has already been discussed, but I do find it curious that Mully is one of Melisandre’s converts. What I’d found even stranger though is that Ghost bares his teeth and bristles at Jon when Jon attempts to pet him. This reminds me a bit of the scene with Mel at the Wall when Ghost seems not to recognize him. Has Mel stopped by lately?

Even odder. Bowen enters Jon’s chambers “snuffling.” Had he already been crying? I do agree with many who have said that the attack seemed very spur of the moment, bolstered by the fact that Ghost isn’t attacking Bowen. But has Bowen already broached the topic of the assassination with someone? And has someone interfered with Ghost’s senses again?

During this discussion, Jon openly criticizes the way Marsh and Yarwyck provide advice. Jon asks for advice on who should man the empty castles, and they refuse to answer. Jon implores them to be of help, that he wants to hear their suggestions, that he’s trying to please them, or at least factor in their thoughts. They refuse, and Bowen says essentially, “who cares, let the wildlings die,” while Yarwyck suggests letting Tormund lead the expedition. Yarwyck’s answer is actually a good suggestion, but he does so for the wrong reasons. At any rate, Bowen and Yarwyck leave, seemingly complaisant and obedient.

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Now is Jon’s first big breaking point, as I see it. Jon thinks of how this is all “Pointless. Pointless, fruitless, hopeless.” He reflects on the good men that have been lost again, seeing the men that are left as empty shells.

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Tormund arrives, and he and Jon meet. They share a laugh about the raven, and at Gerrick Kingsblood’s expense, and Jon and Tormund get down to the business of the ranging.

On a side note, Tormund indirectly tells us that Winterfell truly is the reinforcement for the Watch with his mention of Raymun Redbeard’s getting through and being repelled by the Starks and Umbers.

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They are interrupted by Mully, who insists that Jon immediately read a letter that had just arrived on the basis that Clydas is shaken up. Why does the letter frighten Clydas so badly? Jon sees the smear of pink wax and the word “Bastard” and says, “ ‘You were right to come at once.’ You were right to be afraid.” I understand why Jon would fear this letter, given the fact it might contain news of the Mance mission and Mel’s prediction, but why is Clydas so shaken? Had Clydas already opened the letter and resealed it? Is this why there is only a smear of wax? Who else might be privy to its contents if it was opened at the Wall?

Onto the letter itself, it does in fact give responses to the three questions Jon was told would be answered about Arya, Stannis and Mance. I’ve written out my interpretation of the letter elsewhere, but for the sake of completeness, here are my thoughts on the matter. I personally think there’s a strong case this came from Mance, under Melisandre’s instruction:

Jon is explicitly instructed to go to Mel immediately, which we know is precisely what she’s been trying to get Jon to do since she showed up.

I think this is clearly trying to instigate Jon to action; to believe that the situation is so hopeless that he turns to Mel.

This is the most interesting part, to me. This has an awful lot of text devoted to Mance, which seems a kind of code: "I have him in a cage for all the north to see, proof of your lies." Now, he's in Rattleshirt's cage of bones, and these words also recall the burning of "Mance" in a cage, and "Rattleshirts" words to Jon during their dual: "[stannis] burned the man he had to, for all the world to see."

The only people who call the NW “crows” are wildlings. Ever. This is a really odd combination of hostages. It practically insures that Jon, the Queen’s men and any Wildlings will want to revolt against Ramsay. Plus, I think the reference to “bride” is a message that “Arya” is not Arya. The fact that this mentions Reek makes me convinced that it came from someone within Winterfell, but not using “Theon” helps maintain the alleged authenticity if it’s found by Ramsay-loyal forces.

And finally, there’s the signature:

Ramsay Bolton

Trueborn Lord of Winterfell

I find it strange that someone who signs “Trueborn Lord of Winterfell” would use pink wax to sign this letter, rather than the Direwolf grey of Winterfell. If Ramsay was really trying to salt Jon’s wounds, wouldn’t the grey wax be a way to reinforce this? And wouldn’t he have more than just a smear either way?

We don’t get any of Jon’s immediate thoughts. From Tormund, we see that he’s patently horrified by what he’s read. Jon empties the room of everyone but Tormund, and reads him the letter. Tormund thinks it’s “buggered.” Tormund asks Jon what is meant by Mance in a cage since Mance is allegedly dead. Jon almost says “That was Rattleshirt,” but catches himself, instead remarking on Mel and how she warned him of this. He recalls her words from earlier, to send for her when he has his answers. Tormund asks whether this could be a forgery, thinks of the mention of Mance, and this compels him to believe that there is truth in it.

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Immediately, we plunge into Jon’s thoughts:

I think Jon’s thinking about his siblings as casualties of the War of the 5 kings- the cost of the Iron Throne. I believe he thinks them all dead or beyond saving- even Arya at this point. He's thinking about the fact that he did nothing to save any of them, and that all of this came about because of the stupid Iron Throne. I think he's deciding to take direct action now, not as vengeance or trying to save anyone, but because someone has to stand up for what’s right, and he’s in the position to do this.

His thoughts about his family are punctuated by phrases others have told him- “the Watch takes no part” (common saying), “what you propose is nothing less than treason” (Bowen regarding the wildling relocation), “kill the boy and let the man be born” (Maester Aemon), “you know nothing” (Val and Ygritte). All of these phrases have played a huge role in tempering him, strengthening his ability to be focused on his position as LC, as well as life lessons. I find this fascinating. It starts with the strictest rule- the neutrality clause, then become more and more about thoughts of “rightness” than his enumerated duties as LC.

He is killing the boy here, but it “all depends on what side you’re standing,” to recall another Ygritte-ism. He is killing the impulse to stand by any longer when he knows he is the only one who can take care of this now. Where lack of discipline sent him from the Wall back in aGoT, a different sort of discipline is motivating him to leave. It takes courage, strength and discipline to follow strict orders, but it takes even more to break those orders once you fully understand them when the situation compels you to do so for the right reasons. Here he “knows nothing” because he’s kept out of this for too long, and is making stand. (imo).

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Then we have a 2 hour ellipsis where Martin has said that Jon and Tormund discuss their plans. I still have two major questions:

1. Does Jon tell Tormund about Mance?

2. Does Jon give Tormund further justifications for his going south?

And once again, Jon chains his double/ protector for the sake of putting others at ease.

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Jon’s thoughts alone in the Shieldhall are the second big breaking point in my opinion. (I took a lot of this from my oathbreaking thread):

We get 5 paragraphs of Jon’s description of the room: “Then as now, when a knight took the black, tradition decreed that he set aside his former arms and take up the plain black shield of the brotherhood. The shields thus discarded would hang in the Shieldhall.” We get a list of the shields that had hung, then are told that when a knight dies, their shield is taken down, and that “Over the years and centuries, fewer and fewer knights had taken the black.” It no longer made sense for the knights to dine apart so the Shieldhall was abandoned—it’s also decrepit, rat-infested and, cold and dysfunctional. Now there were fewer than a dozen shields, and the Wildlings outnumbered the “crows” 5-1. This is the first time (I think) where Jon refers to the Watchmen as "crows." I think this is very significant.

I think this is telling us something different than I’d originally thought. I think that this passage is a continuation of Jon’s thoughts on Bowen and the quality of men, and how the Watch is basically an empty shell, unable and unwilling to perform its true service. The Shieldhall was chosen before the letter arrived, so I’m not saying this is an active reaction to the letter and has symbolic value from that, but I think there is a lot of important metaphor going on here, since we’re reading Jon’s descriptions of the hall, which are a reaction to the letter.

The Shieldhall is essentially an analogue to the NW in Jon’s thoughts- there are few good men, good men choose not to come to the Watch, the Watch has lost all prestige and is not taken seriously by anyone on the inside or out. Like the Shieldhall, the Watch is infested with rats, is dysfunctional, has been abandoned, and has abandoned its duty. The Shieldhall is the place where men retire their family sigil, symbolizing their severing ties with previous loyalties. On the flip side, these sigils literally loom over them from the rafters, a haunt of their past lives. Interestingly, Jon is inverting this, presenting his case from black to intervene on behalf of Winterfell. At any rate, I think he has decided that the NW is institutionally useless.

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So through the description of the Shieldhall, I deduce that Jon finds the current state of the Watch useless, dilapidated and impossible to work with. From here, I think that Jon’s speech might be playing to his audience, that is, he sees that wildlings outnumber the Watch by a huge number and will likely be more useful to his needs. I think that the way he frames his speech is meant to appeal more to the wildlings than to the Watchmen, which explains certain omissions and phrasings I think.

At Jon’s left are Yarwyck and Bowen with their men: Wick, Left hand Lew and Alf of Runnymudd are named. Tormund is at his side with the “let’s all settle down” horn. Jon sees Mel enter just as he’s saying that Tormund will be leading the ranging to Hardhome.

Borroq challenges him, asking where he’ll be; he thinks that Jon should lead the ranging himself, and not stay safe behind the Wall. This is interesting. Bowen wants Jon to remain and let the wildlings go, but the wildlings want Jon to lead them. I think this may be a wildling-institutional difference, where they believe the man asking for the risk should be taking the risk himself as well.

Then Jon says he’s riding south and reads the letter. The Shieldhall goes mad, and Tormund blows his horn.

The men overwhelmingly offer support and seem genuinely excited/ happy/ pumped about this. Jon happily thinks, “I have my swords, and we are coming for you, Bastard.”

I find this interesting. The way he phrased this almost sounded as though he did not want any Watchmen to come. And indeed, he thinks that no one can say he made his men forsake their vows for him. The reasons he gives the men pertain to doing the right thing—in fact, Arya doesn’t even come up again, nor any other mention of personal loyalty. The letter does explicitly threaten the Watch via a threat to the head of the organization. He doesn’t frame this at as all either NW business nor family business…I do strongly believe that he intends to take care of this issue and return to his post, stronger than before, but he doesn’t take about this. Perhaps this is omitted because of the values of his audience? That he could attract the support of the wildlings while leaving the NW men to attend their duties, is my guess. The fact that he ponders the Shieldhall and its meaning for so long just prior to this makes me think that he still feels ties and loyalty (in some fashion) to the Watch, but that there is something else he must do first.

Jon immediately notices that Bowen and Co have slipped out, and right after that sees that Mel is gone as well. (This sent alarm bells in my mind- I think this is when the plan was put into motion). Jon is elated. He doesn’t care about Bowen’s absence, thinking that he “did not need them now.”

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Jon leaves with the intention of telling Selyse, and think he’ll then go to Mel to see exactly where Ramsay is. I think that it’s clear Jon does not know if Ramsay is at Winterfell or already marching north to collect his hostages.

He’s sidetracked by screams, and tries to maintain order as the giant rips apart Ser Patrek. Wick slashes his throat, Jon disarms him and he recoils as if to say “Not me.” Then Bowen, crying, stabs him in the stomach, and two unnamed men add two more stabs. Wick is strange here. Wick was actually helpful with Jon previously; when Bowen was a negative nancy in the store rooms, Wick was kind of helpful, suggesting that they could always hunt if food became scarce. I find his participation in this, as well as his reaction, quite strange.

At any rate, my theory is that Mel put these men up to it. Mel is convinced that Jon faces “daggers in the dark” as per her skull vision, and she is also of the belief that “unbelievers never listen until it is too late.” I think that the fact that Jon did not come to her immediately after getting the letter was the last straw; she felt compelled to start making these visions true so that Jon would follow her. I’m not sure what she did- I’m assuming some kind of political manipulation or threat, perhaps assurance that they would come to no harm even. But I do think that this may have been Mel’s way of keeping Jon at the Wall while making a hail mary play to win his trust.

As always, well said, and I totally agree.

I have two questions for you on the subject of House Berantheon and Aemon, (and I know in the case of Aemon, this question has been asked before, but I'd like your perspective).

1). Do you forsee at some point Jon starting to turn his anger on House Berantheon, especially if it comes to light about his heritage?

What you wrote set me to thinking that the Berantheons have caused a lot of pain to the Starks as well, even though it's not overt, (and I'd go back to the imagry of the Stag goring the Direwolf).

2). And here we go with Aemon:

Do you think on some intuitive level that Aemon might have known who Jon was, and that was another reason for his "talking him off the ledge," other than the NW creed?

[Lummel]

Alia of the Knife - could you please edit down or even snip out all of Butterbumps! post rather than repeat the whole thing? It is very long you know :)

Personally I think there is a very strong probability that Aemon guesses that L+R=J and even that LC Mormont thinks something similar. If your a northerner, the Starks are your mega star celebrity royal family. Everybody is going to know all the gossip. People are going to know Brandon's reputation and they are going to know The Ned's reputation. Then The Ned comes back from the war with a bastard child. He never produces another bastard child. There are actually only three reasonable possibilities. (i) The Ned did something uniquely out of character. (ii) The child is actually Brandon's and The Ned is covering for him, again. (iii) The child is actually Lyanna's in which case the father is going to be Rhaegar. I can't imagine that the nobles in the North are so dim that those three possibilities haven't crossed their minds in the fifteen or so years that Jon has been alive.

Butterbumps! Well you have got a very big one there, and it's not everyday I say that to a lady :)

My gut reaction to a Melisandre involvement theory is that it is crackpot. On the other hand as Sherlock Holmes used to say: motive, means and opportunity (or maybe it was Miss Marple, some fictional detective anyway), and they are all there, She got opportunities to talk to Marsh and co, she is persuasive (ie she has the means) and might have motive if her plan is to step in and save Jon, (or to have him killed in a bid to turn him into Azor Ahai).

Still it seems risky. A fake assassination attempt could easily turn into a real one. A man could bleed to death. A wound could become infected. A misplaced stab could be fatal. Plus of course the conspirators have to be prepared to die.

I have to balance the risks of a fake assassination against Melisandre's extreme desperation. Which makes it seems a little more plausible. Just because it's a stupid plan doesn't rule out the possibility that Melisandre might try it anyway. Coming to Westeros on your own with a view to creating a King to fight the great other doesn't look exactly sensible either. I still think it's a stretch.

I think there is some mileage in a coded letter...but we know that letter sending is controlled by the Maesters. For The Nace and Melisandre to agree a code in advance would mean planning to force a Maester to write (is Mance literate? I don't think it's mentioned, but very few watchmen are) and send a ravenmail message or planning that he would reveal himself to Ramsey and somehow persuade him of a cunning plan to get the Mance wife and son back through a false letter. Both seem too far fetched and risky to my mind. So I'm inclined against a Mance-Melisandre coded message currently.

[The guy from the Vale]

Great post, bumps!, even if I remain a sceptic towards Mel as the eminence grise behind the assassination (although I'm totally with you that Mance is the most plausible suspect for the pink letter).

Aemon compares Jon to Aegon V repeatedly, so he does seem to see some kind of connection. However, he clearly doesn't know about R+L=J on a conscious level: His main reason for thinking Dany is the PtwP is that he thinks she's the last Targ, so it has to be her; if he knew Jon was Rhaegar's son, he'd probably guess Jon as the PtwP, but the thought doesn't even cross his mind.

[Alia of the knife]

Alia of the Knife - could you please edit down or even snip out all of Butterbumps! post rather than repeat the whole thing? It is very long you know :)

Personally I think there is a very strong probability that Aemon guesses that L+R=J and even that LC Mormont thinks something similar. If your a northerner, the Starks are your mega star celebrity royal family. Everybody is going to know all the gossip. People are going to know Brandon's reputation and they are going to know The Ned's reputation. Then The Ned comes back from the war with a bastard child. He never produces another bastard child. There are actually only three reasonable possibilities. (i) The Ned did something uniquely out of character. (ii) The child is actually Brandon's and The Ned is covering for him, again. (iii) The child is actually Lyanna's in which case the father is going to be Rhaegar. I can't imagine that the nobles in the North are so dim that those three possibilities haven't crossed their minds in the fifteen or so years that Jon has been alive.

Butterbumps! Well you have got a very big one there, and it's not everyday I say that to a lady :)

My gut reaction to a Melisandre involvement theory is that it is crackpot. On the other hand as Sherlock Holmes used to say: motive, means and opportunity (or maybe it was Miss Marple, some fictional detective anyway), and they are all there, She got opportunities to talk to Marsh and co, she is persuasive (ie she has the means) and might have motive if her plan is to step in and save Jon, (or to have him killed in a bid to turn him into Azor Ahai).

Still it seems risky. A fake assassination attempt could easily turn into a real one. A man could bleed to death. A wound could become infected. A misplaced stab could be fatal. Plus of course the conspirators have to be prepared to die.

I have to balance the risks of a fake assassination against Melisandre's extreme desperation. Which makes it seems a little more plausible. Just because it's a stupid plan doesn't rule out the possibility that Melisandre might try it anyway. Coming to Westeros on your own with a view to creating a King to fight the great other doesn't look exactly sensible either. I still think it's a stretch.

I think there is some mileage in a coded letter...but we know that letter sending is controlled by the Maesters. For The Nace and Melisandre to agree a code in advance would mean planning to force a Maester to write (is Mance literate? I don't think it's mentioned, but very few watchmen are) and send a ravenmail message or planning that he would reveal himself to Ramsey and somehow persuade him of a cunning plan to get the Mance wife and son back through a false letter. Both seem too far fetched and risky to my mind. So I'm inclined against a Mance-Melisandre coded message currently.

Sorry, forgot to shorten, :dunce: but I was asking her, (though I don't mind if others chime in), what her perspective was on a possible Jon/Berantheon smackdown.

Also, on Aemon suspecting who Jon is, not so much as tPtWP, but just as Rhaegars son. :)