Dragon in Winterfell - What does this mean?

[James Arryn]

Wow, guys...

msheafer - you are using inductive logic, while me, some other guys and especially Taganarro are using deductive.

You want it to be a real dragon so much, that everything seems to point you that way when it doesn't, and you resort to means like "prove that it's not a real dragon". While the others are being objective and using deductive logic, stating a number of logical statements and arguments that point the other way. A dragon keeping a low profile? Seen through the eyes of a wolf?

OK, from all the evidence, there is no any piece of proof there is a real dragon, while there is plenty of circumstantial evidence there isn't. This means there is no dragon. Unless proven otherwise.

This is how it works everywhere in the world - when two parties are arguing whether or not something exists, the one that claims it DOES exist should present proof to the one that claims it Doesn't not the other way round. Your "Prove that it's not a real dragon, prove that it didn't eat in Winterfell, prove that noone has heard of it, proof that even if really noone has heard of it, it wasn't in stealth mode" attitude is utterly moronic.

No offence.

I see what you're saying, but I hope you realize that empiricism really has no reliable place as it applies to a work of fiction, fantasy or otherwise. There are no governing laws which apply excepting those subjectively applied by readers. Beyond that, the author's will is king, and that will need follow no path of reasoning other than fancy.

I don't necessarily disagree with your conclusions, and I'd even say that in my opinion GRRM writes enough that we can kinda get a sense of where his tendencies lie, but I think you're adopting a rather high-handed didactic position for someone standing on smoke.

[FittleLinger]

Your extremely insulting opinions are noted. No offense is taken. I have an equally low opinion of your type of reasoning. I'm sure you will also take no offense.

Whilst I admit I overreacted, and I apologize for now I see the way you took it, my overreaction came from the way you took Tagganaro's question. He asked something really logical and in the sense of speculating, which is the general sense of these threads, and you said something like "Why should I answer idiotic questions".

His question was far from idiotic, and it's not like he's my best buddy or anything, I don't know the guy, but your attitude was unacceptable even if his question really was idiotic, and it wasn't.

And really, by "No offence" I really meant "No offence", because your reasoning of "Prove me wrong" in this situation wasn't suitable at all, and you combined it with an "Are you really so stupid" kind of attitude, which I just couldn't accept and I responded in (not even) the same manner.

What I mean is, even if the person I respect the most in the world was using the "Prove me wrong" logic in this situation, I was still going to say it was "utterly moronic". That's my opinion of the logic not you.

I see what you're saying, but I hope you realize that empiricism really has no reliable place as it applies to a work of fiction, fantasy or otherwise. There are no governing laws which apply excepting those subjectively applied by readers. Beyond that, the author's will is king, and that will need follow no path of reasoning other than fancy.

I don't necessarily disagree with your conclusions, and I'd even say that in my opinion GRRM writes enough that we can kinda get a sense of where his tendencies lie, but I think you're adopting a rather high-handed didactic position for someone standing on smoke.

Yes, you're right, reasons are above, I realize I overreacted and kind of spoke like I was standing on solid ground, which I know I am not, and if you look at my other posts about stuff I have an opinion about but there are other speculations, I am never empiric or not accepting other's opinions. On the contrary, I usually start reasoning the other way round and accept logical opinions more than easily. I don't have a hardcore theory that I am so sure in and would be disappointed should it be wrong.

So to conclude, we are a forum of I would say intelligent people, who know they're speculating, we don't argue very much and we don't take so much things personally. For the time I've been here, which for sure is not so long as many others, I have come to this conclusion. Hell, my very first post was respectfully denying one of the more popular theories, and I was attacked by it's supporters, and I didn't take it personally.

What I mean to say is, yes, there is a slim chance in my opinion that this could really be an actual dragon. What I was against was 1) the way of reasoning, and 2) the way of expressing it, and they mixed together in this particular case to something that just I couldn't take seriously, but had to respond to at the same time. My bad.

[Tagganaro]

Whilst I admit I overreacted, and I apologize for now I see the way you took it, my overreaction came from the way you took Tagganaro's question. He asked something really logical and in the sense of speculating, which is the general sense of these threads, and you said something like "Why should I answer idiotic questions".

His question was far from idiotic, and it's not like he's my best buddy or anything, I don't know the guy, but your attitude was unacceptable even if his question really was idiotic, and it wasn't.

Thank you, I appreciate it man. I found it rich that the previous poster reacted to your post with offense, considering he just resorted to personal attacks for no reason. You live and you learn on this site lol. Once someone starts talking like that, I just bow out and try to leave the conversation, which was fruitless anyway in no small part due to the name-calling and personal attacks.

ETA: And I should add that I agree with your previous posts, although I would not use "utterly moronic" to describe any opinion, even if I disagree with it. I think there tends to be more evidence that the Dragon was symbolic and not literal, but I respect the opposing viewpoint, which is apparently not the same for the previous poster who called my question "idiotic", even though I found it to be very relevant to the discussion. Anyway, that's why I bowed out and no longer want to discuss it.

[7V3N]

Okay, apology made, point made. Now please, realize it was an accident and we can all get back to the topic at hand with no personal insults and such. Remember, we all have at least one thing in common--our love for ASOIAF. That should be enough to make us get along :)

[FittleLinger]

Thank you, I appreciate it man. I found it rich that the previous poster reacted to your post with offense, considering he just resorted to personal attacks for no reason. You live and you learn on this site lol. Once someone starts talking like that, I just bow out and try to leave the conversation, which was fruitless anyway in no small part due to the name-calling and personal attacks.

ETA: And I should add that I agree with your previous posts, although I would not use "utterly moronic" to describe any opinion, even if I disagree with it. I think there tends to be more evidence that the Dragon was symbolic and not literal, but I respect the opposing viewpoint, which is apparently not the same for the previous poster who called my question "idiotic", even though I found it to be very relevant to the discussion. Anyway, that's why I bowed out and no longer want to discuss it.

I did not use the term to describe the opinion, I used it to describe the logic and way of expressing it. Anyway, yes, it was not the best of terms to use. But if he/she had said, "the description of the wolf is of a dragon, read it again" or something like that, I wouldn't have resorted to using the term. Anyway, concluding this so called "argument", we can of course continue discussing the same manner we are used to. :cheers: :grouphug:

PS: I admit, the Ilyn Payne and Ned warging maybe was too much, for it seems far more far-fetched than even the dragon above Winterfell IMO.

[msheafer33]

Whilst I admit I overreacted, and I apologize for now I see the way you took it, my overreaction came from the way you took Tagganaro's question. He asked something really logical and in the sense of speculating, which is the general sense of these threads, and you said something like "Why should I answer idiotic questions".

Only after he rather arrogantly insisted I had the duty to answer the questions. However, I had already made clear that I did not know the answer to the questions. The only logical answer is "insufficient data".

My argument is that there was a dragon at Winterfell because the text has bran/summer see a dragon (a winged snake breathing fire) at Winterfell. This argument is not based on knowing the answer to his questions. A thousand possible answers could be proposed, but all of them would be speculative.

The counterargument is that there cannot have been a dragon at winterfell, because otherwise the text would contain more references to the dragon, and more POV characters would know about the dragon. Those making this argument DO assume they know the answer to the questions, and moreover, assume that any such answer would result in additional references to the Dragon of Winterfell being recorded in the POVs of the various main characters of this story. Sadly, the people making this argument don't know the answers to these questions any more than I do. Which invalidates their argument.

His question was far from idiotic, and it's not like he's my best buddy or anything,

Fine. Then answer the questions yourself. For instance, assuming the dragon were real, how many villages did the dragon fly over? And at what time of day or night?

You may feel that you should not have to answer the question, because you don't believe in the dragon. But the argument presented, which you claim is "logical" is that if the dragon were real, we would have seen and heard more of it by now. This argument, by its very nature, requires you to start by assuming the dragon is real. Then you must proceed to show that this necessarily results in us seeing and hearing more of it by now. Which requires you to answer the questions.

And really, by "No offence" I really meant "No offence"

My response was equally sincere.

because your reasoning of "Prove me wrong" in this situation wasn't suitable at all

I never used the words "Prove me wrong". I have the text on my side. While it is possible the text is wrong, and GRRM did not really mean what he wrote, such presumptions leave the realm of textual analysis. The wolf saw a winged snake roaring fire. No other interpetation gives credit to the actual words. No other interpretation adds anything to what we already know.

Those who postulate that, if the dragon we saw was real, it would be seen more often, cannot back up their premises. Because they do not know the answers to their own questions. They have insufficient data.

[Stubby]

[MOD]

Please move past the tit for tat sniping and return to the topic.

Comments about the strength of an argument can be made without personal remarks.

Thank you.

[/MOD]

[Florina Laufeyson]

This was brought up in another thread but I don't have a link.

The "dragon" was most likely wolspeak for a flaming arrow. The wolf was describing the sacking of winterfell.

I like this. Its been awhile since ive seen that passage and i didnt even remember it before this thread.

[Tagganaro]

Just to summarize the arguments and try and get this back on track, since I'm clearly interested in discussing it, there's 2 camps here.

The one I'm in takes Summer's description as symbolic- It's Summer seeing some kind of burning building or the comet and describing it in the only terms he knows how to. I've put forward the evidence for it which I personally find more compelling. Summer wouldn't know how to describe a burning building or the comet, we've heard nothing about any dragon, not even a remote rumor or something. I also struggle to see how a dragon could stay in "stealth-mode", but maybe that's something that can be further discussed.

The other camp says the description is literal- Summer has actually seen a dragon that was somehow awoken during the burning of WF. I don't know if this is a new-born that somehow hatched from an egg hidden in the crypts maybe or if this was some kind of hibernating dragon awoken/released by the fire and racket made by the sack of Winterfell (which I will say would better match Osha's offhand remark about "waking a dragon"). The evidence for this is that people take Summer's remarks at face value, and find it to be easy and explicable that a dragon could get lost in the expansive wilderness that is the North.

Does that basically sum up the arguments here? Anything to add?

I'd like to repeat some of my questions to tease this out before getting side-tracked (and hopefully people don't find these questions idiotic).

1. How likely is it that a dragon could somehow escape and fly away from Winterfell (while roaring fire apparently) without being seen by anyone or anything?

2. IF there is a dragon somewhere loose in the North, is it more or less likely that it would never be heard of, or that someone or something would have seen something, and then gossip would get started?

3. Can a dragon enter "stealth-mode"? Is it capable of restraining its hunting habits, behavior? There seems to be some evidence that ice dragons are more stealthy than the fiery kind, could that be what was released from Winterfell?

4. Something I didn't think of, but could go either way- We know both Master Luwin and Wex were around during this supposed dragon escape event. They would almost have definitely seen something if it happened (is this correct?). I guess I could understand why it wouldn't be mentioned with Wex- He is a mute who can only respond to yes/no questions, and there's no way Manderley and Glover would think to ask him about whether a dragon escaped from Winterfell, and even if they did there's no reason to assume it would be mentioned in their appearances in ADWD. I think Luwin might be more troublesome- I feel like this is something he would have mentioned to Osha when they had their little talk. Maybe he did and we just don't know about it?

I feel like I have some more questions but I'm blanking at the moment from being tired. Anyone with anything to add would be greatly appreciated, and I'd like to continue this discussion. Thanks.

[7V3N]

Oh the bias, oh the bias. No that sums up your argument while "subtly" labeling the other as nonsense. Summer describes a dragon, which can be taken at face value. But how about some actual evidence for the argument not just making it seem like the people who believe differently just can't take a simple hint of symbolism or a change in perspective.

Osha claims it was loud enough to wake a dragon. Summer describes a dragon. There are hot pools in Winterfell, with no explanation. Winterfell is on a hill that could be hollow (the crypts seem to go infinitely deep). Add in the reference I made earlier to GRRM's Ice Dragon.

I will say again, there is no yes or no to be found here. GRRM gave us enough to argue and nothing more.

[Tagganaro]

Oh the bias, oh the bias. No that sums up your argument while "subtly" labeling the other as nonsense. Summer describes a dragon, which can be taken at face value. But how about some actual evidence for the argument not just making it seem like the people who believe differently just can't take a simple hint of symbolism or a change in perspective.

Osha claims it was loud enough to wake a dragon. Summer describes a dragon. There are hot pools in Winterfell, with no explanation. Winterfell is on a hill that could be hollow (the crypts seem to go infinitely deep). Add in the reference I made earlier to GRRM's Ice Dragon.

I will say again, there is no yes or no to be found here. GRRM gave us enough to argue and nothing more.

I really didn't try to put any bias in, I'm sorry if you think that. I did make reference to your ice dragon, and I tried to summarize your argument correctly. And obviously I agree that there's no right or wrong here, as I openly admit I find the evidence for there being no dragon to be more compelling but find it perfectly plausible as well for there to be an actual dragon.

I'm really not saying it's nonsense, and I don't get why you're reacting like that. I'm trying to summarize what we've been talking about. I mentioned pretty much all the points you just made. Seriously.

[7V3N]

Yeah sorry. That was a bit much by me. I'm dealing with some real big a-holes within my group of friends, so there's no way avoiding them. People who are just mean to be mean. So when I stick up against them I get all the stress, especially when they can't listen to reason and continue to put people down.

I'm in college and bullies still exist, and sticking up for the bullied only makes life hell. Fighting the good fight. :bang:

But yeah, sorry. I'm just super stressed.

[Tagganaro]

Yeah sorry. That was a bit much by me. I'm dealing with some real big a-holes within my group of friends, so there's no way avoiding them. People who are just mean to be mean. So when I stick up against them I get all the stress, especially when they can't listen to reason and continue to put people down.

I'm in college and bullies still exist, and sticking up for the bullied only makes life hell. Fighting the good fight. :bang:

But yeah, sorry. I'm just super stressed.

Cool, I'm really trying to give both sides justice, sorry if I failed in that but it was just a really quick summary of the opposing viewpoints, not meant to be taken as gospel or meant to demean a viewpoint that as I have said, I find possible and plausible, just less so than the metaphorical view.

[redviper9]

Just to summarize the arguments and try and get this back on track, since I'm clearly interested in discussing it, there's 2 camps here.

The one I'm in takes Summer's description as symbolic- It's Summer seeing some kind of burning building or the comet and describing it in the only terms he knows how to. I've put forward the evidence for it which I personally find more compelling. Summer wouldn't know how to describe a burning building or the comet, we've heard nothing about any dragon, not even a remote rumor or something. I also struggle to see how a dragon could stay in "stealth-mode", but maybe that's something that can be further discussed.

The other camp says the description is literal- Summer has actually seen a dragon that was somehow awoken during the burning of WF. I don't know if this is a new-born that somehow hatched from an egg hidden in the crypts maybe or if this was some kind of hibernating dragon awoken/released by the fire and racket made by the sack of Winterfell (which I will say would better match Osha's offhand remark about "waking a dragon"). The evidence for this is that people take Summer's remarks at face value, and find it to be easy and explicable that a dragon could get lost in the expansive wilderness that is the North.

Does that basically sum up the arguments here? Anything to add?

I'd like to repeat some of my questions to tease this out before getting side-tracked (and hopefully people don't find these questions idiotic).

1. How likely is it that a dragon could somehow escape and fly away from Winterfell (while roaring fire apparently) without being seen by anyone or anything?

2. IF there is a dragon somewhere loose in the North, is it more or less likely that it would never be heard of, or that someone or something would have seen something, and then gossip would get started?

3. Can a dragon enter "stealth-mode"? Is it capable of restraining its hunting habits, behavior? There seems to be some evidence that ice dragons are more stealthy than the fiery kind, could that be what was released from Winterfell?

4. Something I didn't think of, but could go either way- We know both Master Luwin and Wex were around during this supposed dragon escape event. They would almost have definitely seen something if it happened (is this correct?). I guess I could understand why it wouldn't be mentioned with Wex- He is a mute who can only respond to yes/no questions, and there's no way Manderley and Glover would think to ask him about whether a dragon escaped from Winterfell, and even if they did there's no reason to assume it would be mentioned in their appearances in ADWD. I think Luwin might be more troublesome- I feel like this is something he would have mentioned to Osha when they had their little talk. Maybe he did and we just don't know about it?

I feel like I have some more questions but I'm blanking at the moment from being tired. Anyone with anything to add would be greatly appreciated, and I'd like to continue this discussion. Thanks.

A good summation of the two possible interpretations. Personally, I've always read the dragon as being symbolic: the chaos of the sack of Winterfell allow Summer and Bran to glimpse what's on the horizon (the return of the Targaryen dragons, the possibility that Jon is a Targaryen). Like you though, I don't discount the possibility that a real dragon could have been woken at Winterfell.

Now, on to your questions (answers are numbered like your questions):

1) I find it very unlikely that no one would have seen the dragon, unless it were a hatchling (though Summer seems to "see" a dragon that is relatively large). As you note in question four, Maester Luwin and Wex were still in Wintefell. There's also the possibility that other survivors of Rodrik's force are around. And we know that Ramsay had men searching the vicinity of the Kingsroad for Bran and Rickon.

2) I think it is less likely that a loose dragon would be unheard of. Again, maybe if it were a hatchling, but the description of what Summer saw doesn't sound like a hatchling. Perhaps the dragon flew high enough and fast enough to a lair so as to avoid detection, but the dragons we've seen so far in ASOIAF don't seem to know how to keep a low profile once they learn to fly. Yes, the North is less densely populated than other regions, but there are villages and holdfasts, and people are constantly on the move (Bran and co., Ramsay's men, the Wildlings that have scaled the wall, travelers like the one encountered by Bran and by the party of Wildlings Jon is traveling with).

3) Fire dragons, at least given what we've read so far about them, seem to find it difficult, but not impossible, to keep a low profile. When Dany first took Quentyn to see Rhaegal and Viserion, it took Quentyn a minute to spot one of them. Barristan also reports them carving lairs out of Meereen's pyramids and going to ground. But in that case, there are still signs of the dragon's presence, namely the smoke emanating from the pyramids. Same with Drogon, whose escape from Meereen has been cited as evidence that dragons can go "stealth." Drogon wasn't found by anyone from Meereen because he was quite some distance away. However, it is certainly implied that the khalasars of the Dothraki Sea -- where Drogon made his lair -- are well aware that there is a dragon in their midst. And, as I recall, Dany can still the smoke emanating from "Dragonstone" even after she's put a fair amount of distance between her and that place. There's also been no indication so far that fire dragons hibernate, either with Dany's dragons or the historical dragons GRRM has introduced us to (it comes to mind that if dragons did hibernate, the Seven Kingdoms would have just waited for the Targaryen dragons to go to sleep before rebelling, or that Tyrion, whose very well versed in dragonlore, would have mentioned the possibility to someone once he arrived in Essos). I can't speak for how ice dragons might behave, since we know less about them as readers than we do about the fire dragons.

4) I already alluded to this earlier, but Maester Luwin and Wex would have likely noted something. As you note, Wex is mute, and the Lords Manderly and Glover would never consider asking about a dragon. But I have a feeling that if you had seen a dragon emerge from Winterfell's ruins, you would try to find a way to tell someone. Same with Luwin; even though he's not a big believer in magic, I think he would have told Osha if he had seen something, and Osha certainly would have told the rest of the survivors. Of course, Luwin could have been unconscious, or he could have chalked up a possible sighting to a hallucination brought upon by his wounds. Or, like you note, if Luwin did see something and if he did tell Osha, she might have decided to keep it to herself.

So, given the world constructed by GRRM and the circumstances of the North in the wake of the sack of Winterfell, I find it unlikely that a dragon could go undetected. Unlikely, but not impossible. I'm still in the camp that interprets the dragon as symbolic/prophetic, but as we've learned many times in ASOIAF, anything is possible in Westeros.

[7V3N]

Here is a map of the North. There are no major seats near Winterfell (of course minor villages are not marked), and a straight shot North would likely mean the dragon would be in the mountains, then North of the Wall. The mountain clans are pretty isolated and if one man saw the dragon word would likely not get anywhere, or he would be dismissed. People still call the eastern dragons a folly, a silent ice dragon in the North would be hysterical. Now consider that the North is at war in the South (surely many peasants joined in searching for glory and maybe even a knighthood), ravaged by ironmen, scarcely populated even in peace. Now, I lean more towards it being a real dragon, but that is mainly because of GRRM's constant references to an ice dragon--surely one must have actually existed if there are things named/based off of it (and its just a type of something that we know exists, not a whole new creature). The other evidence just helps me justify my belief, just as saying someone would have known and word would get around is a way to justify the metaphorical view of Summer's "dragon".

[msheafer33]

I've put forward the evidence for it which I personally find more compelling. Summer wouldn't know how to describe a burning building or the comet [...]

"Beyond the open fields he could see the great piles of man rock stark against the swirling flames."

So apparently, Summer can describe a burning building. As for the comet, it's been around for ages, meaning Summer has presumably seen it before. It seems bizarre that he would suddenly be startled by it now.

we've heard nothing about any dragon, not even a remote rumor or something.

Through Summer, we saw it with our own eyes. Having done this for us, GRRM has no need to go out of his way to report remote rumors (which may or may not exist).

The other camp says the description is literal- Summer has actually seen a dragon that was somehow awoken during the burning of WF.

No. The literal camp merely holds that Summer saw a winged snake roaring fire - a dragon - pass above him.

It may have been awoken or hatched during the burning

of Winterfell, but that goes beyond the evidence.

I'd like to repeat some of my questions to tease this out before getting side-tracked (and hopefully people don't find these questions idiotic).

Your questions are obviously rhetorical, which is fine. I will call them "idiotic" only if you taunt me with my inability to provide definite answers to them. However, I will make a few comments on each.

1. How likely is it that a dragon could somehow escape and fly away from Winterfell (while roaring fire apparently) without being seen by anyone or anything?

Mis-states the evidence and assumes facts not in evidence.

It is not true that the dragon was "not seen by any one or anything." It was seen by Bran/Summer. For all we know, it may have been seen by addition ones or things. All we know is that GRRM did not go out of his way to redundantly convey this information through additional POVs.

That said, there is no reason to assume that, under the circumstances, the winged snake would have been seen by additional POVs. This event occurred at NIGHT. Normally, it is DARK at night. Perhaps you live in a major metropolitan area and do not fully realize the implications of this fact. Just because Summer, with his night vision, could see the Winged Snake in the sky, does not mean anyone else could. (They would have seen its roar of flame, but only for an instant). Yes, fires are burning, but, depending on circumstances, their ability to dazzle and blind is just as powerful as their ability to illuminate.

The roar would have been heard, of course. But that was not the only roar heard that night. After the dragon was gone, another roar was heard. Roaring flame was not remarkable occurrence, on such a night, and if anyone thought they saw a dragon too, such person would only have been laughed at.

2. IF there is a dragon somewhere loose in the North, is it more or less likely that it would never be heard of, or that someone or something would have seen something, and then gossip would get started?

Given the vast vast size of the North, it is perfectly plausible that a dragon - even a large one, though we don't know how big it is -- could disappear and never be seen. It could also leave the North.

Have you ANY idea how big the North is?

But that's not the only problem with your question. The other problem is the question assumes nobody (other than Bran/Summer) has seen this dragon. It assumes there has been no gossip.

What we know is that the North is full of gossip and old wives tales. Grumkins, Snarks, Bugbears... whatever. Probably dragons too. Normally, such stories are not believed, at least not by a certain segment of the population. (Sophisticated lords and ladies). It does not mean the stories are not told.

A pregnant dead direwolf was found south of the Wall. A HUGE animal. No other word of its existence had reached Winterfell before, nor (as far as we know) has reached it since.

3. Can a dragon enter "stealth-mode"? Is it capable of restraining its hunting habits, behavior?

I don't understand the point of question. We know dragons are capable of flying at night. We know they are normally silent while hunting.

Speculating beyond this is unnecessary. Anything is possible. Warged dragons, with essentially human minds, are possible. We know old legends speak of talking dragons. Tyrion does not believe these legends, but the mere fact that GRRM chose to mention such legends is like a Czechov's gun.

But we would have to know something about this dragon's hunting habits before there would be much point to speculating as to whether it was capable of restraining them.

4. Something I didn't think of, but could go either way- We know both Master Luwin and Wex were around during this supposed dragon escape event.

They would almost have definitely seen something if it happened (is this correct?).

No. Why would it be correct? Maester Luwin was busy dying. Wex was hiding in fear. It was dark. Circumstances were not the same (Summer was some distance from Winterfell when he saw the dragon).

When Wex saw Bran & the rest, it was many, many hours later, during the daytime.

It is POSSIBLE that one of both of them saw something. But there is no reason to believe that they did.

I guess I could understand why it wouldn't be mentioned with Wex- He is a mute who can only respond to yes/no questions, and there's no way Manderley and Glover would think to ask him about whether a dragon escaped from Winterfell, and even if they did there's no reason to assume it would be mentioned in their appearances in ADWD.

Right.

(1) No reason to suppose he would have seen it.

(2) If he did see it, no reason to suppose he would have told Manderly.

(3) If he did tell Manderly, no reason to suppose that Manderly would have relayed this information to Davos (whether he believed it or not).

I think Luwin might be more troublesome- I feel like this is something he would have mentioned to Osha when they had their little talk. Maybe he did and we just don't know about it?

Luwin was found lying on his belly, in the godswood. But even if he was face up, there is no reason to believe he would have seen anything but the leaves above him, assuming he could see even them.

Right.

(1) No reason to assume he would have seen it.

(2) If he did see it, no reason to assume he would have mentioned it - he is busy dying and has other critically important priorities, needing great effort to speak.

(3) If he did find the time to relay this information to Osha, there is no reason to suppose that Osha would have relayed this information to Bran.

[msheafer33]

Since the claim was made that the dragon-sighting occurred in daytime, I should provide the actual text:

The smoke and ash clouded his eyes, and in the sky he saw a great winged snake whose roar was a river of flame. He bared his teeth, but then the snake was gone. Behind the cliffs tall fires were eating up the stars.

All through the night the fires crackled, and once there was a great roar and crash that made the earth jump under his feet. [...] In time the flames began to dwindle and then they were gone. The sun rose grey and smoky in the morning.

[Tagganaro]

Snip

Good summary, this tends to be my interpretation as well. Very well said.

Here is a map of the North. There are no major seats near Winterfell (of course minor villages are not marked), and a straight shot North would likely mean the dragon would be in the mountains, then North of the Wall. The mountain clans are pretty isolated and if one man saw the dragon word would likely not get anywhere, or he would be dismissed. People still call the eastern dragons a folly, a silent ice dragon in the North would be hysterical. Now consider that the North is at war in the South (surely many peasants joined in searching for glory and maybe even a knighthood), ravaged by ironmen, scarcely populated even in peace. Now, I lean more towards it being a real dragon, but that is mainly because of GRRM's constant references to an ice dragon--surely one must have actually existed if there are things named/based off of it (and its just a type of something that we know exists, not a whole new creature). The other evidence just helps me justify my belief, just as saying someone would have known and word would get around is a way to justify the metaphorical view of Summer's "dragon".

It is certainly possible, and a good summary of everything. I'm not sure about there needing to be an actual ice dragon- I know it's been talked about before but Jon Snow could actually be the ice dragon. Additionally, with several other references being made to a "stone dragon" that could be a lot of dragons suddenly flying around- or I guess I should say more than I would think there would be, obviously 5 is not a lot.

[protar]

About whether Wex could've seen the dragon: It's certainly possible but Wex is mute and we see him in one scene after COK. Could he have communicated information of the dragon to Manderly? Perhaps, but Manderly has no reason to inform Davos of this news. And I'd say the more likely scenario is that Wex chose to keep quiet. Presumably he's after some reward, telling Wyman about Bran and Rickon. The last thing he wants is to mention a dragon sighting and make his entire story sound unrealistic.

[SJC]

1) I find it very unlikely that no one would have seen the dragon, unless it were a hatchling (though Summer seems to "see" a dragon that is relatively large). As you note in question four, Maester Luwin and Wex were still in Wintefell. There's also the possibility that other survivors of Rodrik's force are around. And we know that Ramsay had men searching the vicinity of the Kingsroad for Bran and Rickon.

A very good post altogether, and I fully agree with the expressed view. On one point (quoted above), my memory is hazy (and I have lent my books to a friend), but doesn't Summer see the vision of a dragon while the sack of Winterfell is ongoing, or at least during the evening of the sack? I remember Summer mentioning the alluring smell of meat (the dead and dying of the fight between Ramsay and Sir Rodrik), but also the sounds and smells of many living and armed men running about. The wolf mentions being drawn in by the former, but deciding to hide in the woods due to the dangers posed by the latter. It is the next morning when the wolves actually return to Winterfell. So, to my memory, it's not just Wex and Luwin around, the sacking forces and Winterfell prisoners are still in the area, if not the castle itself. Someone with a book handy should feel free to correct, though.