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Stubby

R+L=J #33

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Continued...

Last post, courtesy of SF Danny:

She need only be a single day 'ahead' - heck, she needn't even really be 'ahead' at all, since Brandon went to the wrong place.

But no disagreement in general about potential timeline and her being with Rhaegar 13 months or even more before Ned found her at ToJ.

The likelihood of her being with Rhaegar for 13 months or more is very small. Thirteen months or more from when she disappears to when Ned finds her is very probable, but Rhaegar is only with her probably close to half of that time.

We have no idea how long he 'waited' or even if he 'waited' at all.

Pregnancy might happen the first time you have unprotected sex. Or the 1000th time.

My wife and I got married ready and actively trying to start a family immediately, due to our ages, and it took 4 months to get pregnant. Thats almost exactly the amount of time you seem to be complaining about with Rhaegar and Lyanna.

Your real world reality is, most importantly, confirmed for Martin's fantasy setting when Catelyn tells Robb almost the same thing you point to - the first or the thousandth, one never really knows until it happens.

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Could R have heard that L was pregnant to him through Varys somehow and that is why L was taken from wherever?

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Could R have heard that L was pregnant to him through Varys somehow and that is why L was taken from wherever?

You mean before the war started? Not possible, or it least it's not possible that Jon is the result of said pregnancy, because we know he was conceived a few months into the war.

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I know it's totally random but has anyone ever heard the song Youth by Daughter? IT'S SO RHAEGAR AND LYANNA. It actually say "collecting names of the lovers that went wrong". Can't it be any more proper fitting for them? And another part says " when you were in my head, when you broke my chest" it actually says "when you broke my chest" and Rhaegar was killed by Robert's hammer in the chest. KPOKASPOAK No, no one is paying me. And I won't analyze the whole song, I just thought it would be nice if anyone ships them.

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Could R have heard that L was pregnant to him through Varys somehow and that is why L was taken from wherever?

No, because if so. Jon would be a year old when taken to Winterfell, therefor quite older than Robb, and in the begging Cat says that Jon is younger. Ok, that id R+L=J is true, Jon is older than Robb by older by a few months, if it was a year apart Catelyn would never believed

One thing I always have a doubt. From the moment that they met in Harrenhall(did I spell it wrong? I always do, if yes, sorry) to the moment that Lyanna was kidnapped how long they stayed in the same city/castle? I know that passed about a year in that time, but after the joust in which they met, Rhaegar probably went to KL or somewhere, and Lyanna to Riverland or Winterfell, they wouldn't stay in the same place, specially after the scandal that R naming L the Queen of Beauty. But if they were in love they must have met again, they wouldn't just met, then run away. It's ASOIAF not Disney. Does anybody know when they probably met again? How long they could have spend together before the "kidnapping"?

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Arianne Martell:

If only we wait long enough, GRRM might deign to answer your questions. Then again, maybe not.

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No, because if so. Jon would be a year old when taken to Winterfell, therefor quite older than Robb, and in the begging Cat says that Jon is younger. Ok, that id R+L=J is true, Jon is older than Robb by older by a few months, if it was a year apart Catelyn would never believed

One thing I always have a doubt. From the moment that they met in Harrenhall(did I spell it wrong? I always do, if yes, sorry) to the moment that Lyanna was kidnapped how long they stayed in the same city/castle? I know that passed about a year in that time, but after the joust in which they met, Rhaegar probably went to KL or somewhere, and Lyanna to Riverland or Winterfell, they wouldn't stay in the same place, specially after the scandal that R naming L the Queen of Beauty. But if they were in love they must have met again, they wouldn't just met, then run away. It's ASOIAF not Disney. Does anybody know when they probably met again? How long they could have spend together before the "kidnapping"?

No one knows, outside of GRRM's head that is, the answers to your questions. We can guess based on little hints here or there, but no real solid evidence for Lyanna's or Rhaegar's whereabouts through much of this time. I go back and forth about Ned and Lyanna's talk in Winterfell, but now my guess is that it predates the tourney at Harrenhal, and that Lyanna, Brandon, Ned, and Rickard come together sometime after the tourney in the Vale. The do so in preparation of the wedding of Brandon to Catelyn and, I think, to bring Robert and Lyanna together in order to move their marriage forward. At some point in 282 Brandon and his friends travel towards Riverrun to see Catelyn. This looks to be the case because of the Vale makeup of Brandon's party. Also, it is to the Vale that Aerys sends the demand for Robert's and Ned's heads, so they are obviously there. It makes sense that Lyanna would travel to Riverrun as well, from where (the Vale or the Riverlands) is unknown, but she does so seemingly under guarded protection (hence the need for Rhaegar to take her at sword point.) She seems to have met up with Rhaegar on her travels because Brandon receives word about her "kidnapping" while traveling himself, and it is he who reacts the quickest to the news. Which hints that he is the closest to Lyanna, and he acts without counsel from his father, Ned or Robert - none of whom go with him. It seems highly unlikely that Rickard would have told Brandon to do what he did, that Lord Arryn would have allowed his heir to travel on such an errand, or that Ned or, particularly Robert, would have not gone along with Brandon if they knew the plan. So, either, Lyanna was traveling from the Vale to Riverrun or from some other place to the same location and she met Rhaegar. Had they met between then and the tourney? We don't know. I doubt it, but it is possible. I think the Harrenhal stay unlikely, only because at the time Rickard is certainly calling the shots on where his daughter would be staying. If she is not with him, I highly doubt the Whents would be a family a man with "southren ambitions" would have chosen for his rebellious daughter to stay given her history with the Targaryen prince and the loyalty of the Whents to the royal family. The Vale seems the more likely place, and if so, it is unlikely that the crown prince and Lyanna met up before they meet on the road and run off together.

The tea leaves can be read many ways, that's just my read of them at this moment. Hopefully we will get some more clues to work with soon.

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Last post, courtesy of SF Danny:

The likelihood of her being with Rhaegar for 13 months or more is very small. Thirteen months or more from when she disappears to when Ned finds her is very probable, but Rhaegar is only with her probably close to half of that time.

Well, yes. I didn't mean to imply (or rather, outright say) Rhaegar was with her the whole time of that 13 months, just a bit sloppy with my composition, sorry. Usually its the typing that is sloppy... :blush:

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SF Danny: thanks. Your post was helpful and mine was not. Sometimes, I get a bit grouchy about our author's devious ways. Goes with being 63, I suppose. Sorry A. Martell, I should not be letting any such frustration spill over into replies to other forum members.

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Lyanna was for sure gone for those 13 months because that's also when Brandon and Rickon went to Kings Landing to demand her be returned, and then they were killed. You have to remember that even traveling from Winterfell to Kings Landing took weeks, so from when she was missing to when they were killed to when Ned heard and then raised his banners could very well already have been three months. After that, the war began and that lasted for the better part of a year. Rhaegar was a cunning man, he could have stashed Lyanna close to him without anyone realizing it was her.

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Patchface might know if he saw it under the sea.. I know, I know, oh oh oh.. Unfortunately Dany never let Barristan finish his stories for atleast some insight into some of the things at Harrenhal, so now we gotta wait 5years for the next book (to get the next clue)

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Let us hope that GRRM reveals the truth in TWOW because I would really like to see the repercussions of a secret like that being revealed.

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Well, yes. I didn't mean to imply (or rather, outright say) Rhaegar was with her the whole time of that 13 months, just a bit sloppy with my composition, sorry. Usually its the typing that is sloppy... :blush:

I thought that was the case, and should have said so in my post. After having the opportunity to read your posts for the past few years, always a pleasure by the way, it is pretty clear you know these timeline questions.

SF Danny: thanks. Your post was helpful and mine was not. Sometimes, I get a bit grouchy about our author's devious ways. Goes with being 63, I suppose. Sorry A. Martell, I should not be letting any such frustration spill over into replies to other forum members.

No problem. Great to see another reader older than me on these forums. You've got me beat by half a decade or so.

Lyanna was for sure gone for those 13 months because that's also when Brandon and Rickon went to Kings Landing to demand her be returned, and then they were killed. You have to remember that even traveling from Winterfell to Kings Landing took weeks, so from when she was missing to when they were killed to when Ned heard and then raised his banners could very well already have been three months. After that, the war began and that lasted for the better part of a year. Rhaegar was a cunning man, he could have stashed Lyanna close to him without anyone realizing it was her.

As far as we know, neither Brandon or Rickard ever demand Lyanna's return. All we know is that Brandon goes to King's Landing and calls for Rhaegar to "come out and die." Sounds like the return of his sister wasn't the first thing on his mind. Perhaps he knew she went willingly? I think so.

edit: oops, Rickard, not Rickon.

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As far as we know, neither Brandon or Rickon ever demand Lyanna's return. All we know is that Brandon goes to King's Landing and calls for Rhaegar to "come out and die." Sounds like the return of his sister wasn't the first thing on his mind. Perhaps he knew she went willingly? I think so.

Yeah, reading about Brandon's actions after Lyanna disappeared, I thought at first he was genuinely scared out of his mind knowing Lyanna would have had to be violently subdued for Rhaegar and his goons to make off with her. And somewhere along the way he starts thinking, "hey wait a minute, Lyanna's been making a lot of noise about Robert being a manwhore and telling dad where he can put the betrothal". During the ride to KL he grows angrier and angrier. And in typical big brother fashion, thinks its up to him to administer an ass kicking to the asshole that seduced his little sister.

If only he'd cooled off and approached Aerys in a gentler fashion, they probably would have teamed up to find the missing lovebirds. Aerys wasn't keen on Targaryens mingling with the "lessers" lol.

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As far as we know, neither Brandon or Rickon ever demand Lyanna's return. All we know is that Brandon goes to King's Landing and calls for Rhaegar to "come out and die." Sounds like the return of his sister wasn't the first thing on his mind. Perhaps he knew she went willingly? I think so.

What is not a pretty thought, is that Lyanna could not be given back in the true worth she had for House Stark.

It is hard for most modern day cultures to comprehend, but whether Lyanna was raped or went willingly with Rhaegar, after this she was no longer useful in the marriage pact that was meant to join House Baratheon to House Stark.

ETA The Starks may have loved her, but what she did must have been hard to forgive.

Robert did not go to Kings Landing to confront Rhaegar, it was Brandon of House Stark.

Robert may have been in love with her, he tells Ned he was and we have Cersei's tale of her wedding night as an additional clue - but he could not make Lyanna Lady of Storms End after what happened. ETA The deal was off.

I think it is no coincidence that we learn what happened with Lisa after her mishap with Littlefinger.

It was very convenient that there was a man, much older and desperately in need of an heir and a proven fertile woman, who would take Lysa.

And of course the mishap here was not known but to a few people, while the news of Lyanna's kidnap or elopement may have not been something that could easily be hushed up.

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If only he'd cooled off and approached Aerys in a gentler fashion, they probably would have teamed up to find the missing lovebirds. Aerys wasn't keen on Targaryens mingling with the "lessers" lol.

lol

Well, that's where we disagree. I don't think there's any possible scenario in which a Stark arrives at KL to discuss the matter with Aerys in which the outcome would be good. We just have to remember his reaction to the KotLT, and how the knight's shield had a symbol of the North in it, not to mention Rickard's move to get closer to so many important Houses in the South - the way Aerys was paranoid at that point, he was certainly paying attention to all that and probably suspicious of the Starks. Any possible solutions that could please the North (be it making Lyanna Rhaegar's second wife, marrying her to Viserys, or granting Rickard more lands and influence) would expand Rickard's power, which was likely the last thing Aerys would have wanted.

I only see two ways Brandon, Rickard and the others could have survived: if Brandon didn't go to KL and found a way to get in touch with Rhaegar, or maybe waited for him to make contact, and the North supported him in a coup against Aerys, which might have been what R had in mind when he ran away with Lyanna in the first place; or, the less likely possibility, Stark, Tully, Arryn and Baratheon started the rebellion earlier, which probably would never happen, since they only chose that path because of the people Aerys murdered and for his demanding Ned and Robert's heads.

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lol

Well, that's where we disagree. I don't think there's any possible scenario in which a Stark arrives at KL to discuss the matter with Aerys in which the outcome would be good.

Exactly. Even if Brandon somehow politely asked (which totally goes against his personality), Aerys would most likely have just blamed Lyanna for the situation, insisting that she instigated the matter. It was definitely a no-win situation.

I only see two ways Brandon, Rickard and the others could have survived: if Brandon didn't go to KL and found a way to get in touch with Rhaegar, or maybe waited for him to make contact, and the North supported him in a coup against Aerys, which might have been what R had in mind when he ran away with Lyanna in the first place; or, the less likely possibility, Stark, Tully, Arryn and Baratheon started the rebellion earlier, which probably would never happen, since they only chose that path because of the people Aerys murdered and for his demanding Ned and Robert's heads.

I could see Rhaegar reaching out to the Starks and letting them know what his intentions were once the dust settled, but I still can't envision a scenario where Brandon doesn't blow a gasket. Rhaegar's best chance would have been to clear the air with Brandon ahead of time. Anything after R & L disappear instantly puts Brandon in commando big brother mode...

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I don't think Brandon's reaction is that of a protective elder brother for his little sister. We often read it that way because it is a modern reader's real world response that is familiar to some, but Brandon's reaction comes, first and foremost, I believe, from the same place Hoster Tully's grievance with the Blackfish comes from - the Lord's Right. The ability of a Lord to agree to a marriage alliance is a critical part of his power. To allow others, their children or even a crown prince, to ignore those rights is a huge affront to that tradition. How a lord may react to such an act varies in the story - from the estrangement of Hoster and the Blackfish, to Tywin's teaching a hard lesson to Tysha and Tyrion - but they all guard this right. Brandon, as the heir to Winterfell is no different. He just thinks everything can be solved by a well placed sword thrust.

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I don't think Brandon's reaction is that of a protective elder brother for his little sister. We often read it that way because it is a modern reader's real world response that is familiar to some, but Brandon's reaction comes, first and foremost, I believe, from the same place Hoster Tully's grievance with the Blackfish comes from - the Lord's Right. The ability of a Lord to agree to a marriage alliance is a critical part of his power. To allow others, their children or even a crown prince, to ignore those rights is a huge affront to that tradition. How a lord may react to such an act varies in the story - from the estrangement of Hoster and the Blackfish, to Tywin's teaching a hard lesson to Tysha and Tyrion - but they all guard this right. Brandon, as the heir to Winterfell is no different. He just thinks everything can be solved by a well placed sword thrust.

Fair point, but my impression is that Brandon simply saw it as a slight upon his House, as opposed to Lord's Right. To me, the circumstances would have to be different for Brandon to interpret it as Rhaegar exercising Lord's Right, i.e. just having his way with her and leaving her to be...

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I thought that was the case, and should have said so in my post. After having the opportunity to read your posts for the past few years, always a pleasure by the way, it is pretty clear you know these timeline questions.

Thank you and likewise (especially the likewise). It was still particularly sloppily written though.

But credit for any knowledge of mine comes from old-timers (in board terms) like you, OiL, EB and similar. I was a fresh faced (in interwebs terms) noob looking for confirmation of my new R+L=J theory when I first came here (though I lurked for a year or so). The series was already the best thing I'd read (maybe challenged by Guy Gavriel Kay), but so very, very much richer now thanks to the wisdom of other boarders.

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