Immediate reaction to Jon's assassination

[Ramsay Gimp]

You guys seem to be overestimating Tormund's love for Jon. He would just move his people to safety not duke it out at the wall. He is already through what would fighting accomplish for him and his people?

People get off on their revenge fantasies on these boards, especially concerning those who kill Starks. It gets tiresome

[King Daemon Blackfyre]

You guys seem to be overestimating Tormund's love for Jon. He would just move his people to safety not duke it out at the wall. He is already through what would fighting accomplish for him and his people?

People get off on their revenge fantasies on these boards, especially concerning those who kill Starks. It gets tiresome

Its not a 'fantasy'. It will be Tormund's immediate reaction to Jon being stabbed to death in front of him - axe/member to Bowen's face, and then maybe cut his way free of the shitstorm about to engulf the Wall and lead his people to (what will only be for a short time) safety.

[Scipio Africanus]

You guys seem to be overestimating Tormund's love for Jon. He would just move his people to safety not duke it out at the wall. He is already through what would fighting accomplish for him and his people?

Wuh? How is it fantasy? There's most likely fighting going on as Jon went down. There are 3 factions at Castle Black. Selyse's men (one of her knights is currently minced meat), the Rangers and Tormund's Wildlings. Plus as a trump card a mildly upset Giant. It is highly likely to me that the Bowenians, who hated the Wildlings, will try and take out said Wildlings and remove them from the Wall. That's why they killed Jonny in the first place. They didn't like the Wildlings.

Whether or not Tormund loves Jon is not relevant, there will be fighting between his followers and the Boweinian faction amongst the Rangers. And there's no one left to stop them for doing so. And we don't even take Selyse's men into account...

Wait, what if he dies, but Martin still thinks we need a POV on the Wall, so he turns Dolorous Edd Tollett into a POV? I think that'd be worth it.

1) Red Mel returns.

2) GhostJon

[Dunk tha Lunk]

Or GrrM could just tell the end result through Mel. We won't necessarily get to see much of it, as we didn't the BoBWB. There will be too many battles in winds to do full coverage.

BoBWB?? :dunno:

[Lady Sansa Stark]

BoBWB?? :dunno:

Battle of Blackwater Bay, I'd say.

OT:

A BLOODBATH. In which Bowen Marsh and co. get killed. It is known.

[Dunk tha Lunk]

^^^ thaaaaaanks ^^^

[Lady Sansa Stark]

People get off on their revenge fantasies on these boards, especially concerning those who kill Starks. It gets tiresome

You think Tormund would do nothing if Jon gets stabbed by his very hostile Brothers in front of him? The Jon Snow who brought all those wildlings there, outnumbering them 'five to one' as Bowen Marsh himself said? The Jon Snow who united them, was trying to feed them all, saving people at Hardhome? Who wanted to fight side by side with the wildlings to defeat their common enemy, the Others?

Dream on. It's not a mere fantasy, Tormund would do something at the least. Getting his people out of there, probably, go as far South as possible. Meanwhile killing some Night's Watch brothers, I'm sure of that.

[Chaircat Meow]

I'm not sure Tormund is going to have a choice but to fight the NW anyway, regardless of feelings for Jon. The gut reaction of a lot of the NW is going to = wildlings marching south on WF to rescue Mance Rayder, BAD, and once that happens the rest will get dragged in. Doesn't really matter what has happened to Jon other than that he has been removed from the picture and has no restraining influence anymore. I think the wildlings still care more about Mance than Jon though.

It is an interesting question how much Tormund really likes Jon. He was fond of him when he knew him in SoS and allowing him through the gate has no doubt undone some of the damage his 'betrayal' of the wildlings did to his reputation. Does Tormund use joviality to conceal his true feelings some of the time or is he always pretty upfront? Anyway, in the penultimate Jon chap some of the other wildlings swear Jon oaths on crossing the wall, but others look at him with dead eyes and fingers their weapons (or something like that), so it's a mixed bag.

And if Bowen thinks the NW are currently outnumbered five to one by wildling warriors at CB (which he didn't say) he's wrong. There were 3100 people with Tormund and 1,000 or so wildlings captured by Stannis at the start. So that's a total of 4,100 wildlings beyond the wall. But of the 1,000 there are about 300 warriors (and 200 Thenns left to go to Karhold) and between 500-1000 warriors with Tormund (penultimate Jon chapter) and they are not all at CB, some have already been sent to other castles.

[DaveRoid]

I dont think its too much of a stretch to assume that with this event, the Night's Watch is pretty much over.

Funny how they say "for the watch" if that ends up happening.

[NewJeffCT]

And if Bowen thinks the NW are currently outnumbered five to one by wildling warriors at CB (which he didn't say) he's wrong. There were 3100 people with Tormund and 1,000 or so wildlings captured by Stannis at the start. So that's a total of 4,100 wildlings beyond the wall. But of the 1,000 there are about 300 warriors (and 200 Thenns left to go to Karhold) and between 500-1000 warriors with Tormund (penultimate Jon chapter) and they are not all at CB, some have already been sent to other castles.

Well, the Old Pomegranite is good with numbers, so I think his estimate is solid. I think I recall elsewhere that Tormund had 500 warriors in his group, but I could be wrong. I think they're going to go with the typical ranger strategy and use their organization, skiil and superior armor and weapons in an attempt to defeat the wildings. However, while Marsh has undoubtably a good amount of men loyal to him, I'm sure it's not everybody at Castle Black.

My guess is that Mel will save Jon somehow, and/or that Jon will have warged into Ghost. I think she stayed behind because she realizes that Jon may be AA reborn and not Stannis.

My guess is that the first CB POV will be Tormund's Member :drool:

just kidding - could be Jon looking on his fallen body as Ghost?

[Chaircat Meow]

''Once past the Wall, the wildlings will have thrice our numbers,'' said Bowen Marsh. ''And that is only Tormund's band.

Jon DwD hardback p. 712

On p. 711 he puts Tormund's band at 3,000 strong.

This time it was the warriors who came forward. And not just one hundred of them. Five hundred, Jon Snow judged, as they moved out from beneath the trees, perhaps as many as a thousand.

Jon DwD p. 775

By the time of the last chap Tormund took his own people to Oakenshield, but returned with 50 men. Other castles had already been given to other wildling chiefs, like Soren Shieldbreaker.

My guess is the NW at this point is only 600-700 strong so I still don't understand why Marsh said Tormund would have thrice our numbers. It is clear though that that figure is not wildling warriors but the whole band (women, children, old men).

[MrsManderly]

I think there are a few key things we don't know without which it's all just guesswork:

1. What Jon and Tormund discussed/set in motion during the few hours they spent ensconced after receiving the pink letter. It's entirely wishful thinking on my part, and I don't ascribe to theories of "Jon planned it all" (as discussed on another thread yesterday), but I kind of hope that there is some ace up the sleeve that Jon / Tormund hold in the situation. Or at least that Tormund will demonstrate his awesomeness once again by using the wildling strength of numbers to contain the situation but without allowing for a "kill all crows" bonanza to ensue.
   
   
   
2. Whether Selyse/Queen's men were in on Marsh's plot. My gut feeling is that they were, given Selyse's extreme dislike of Jon and her propensity to meddle where she (and her mustache) are not welcome. If the queen's men join their strenght to Marsh's faction, that would IMO be more likely to result in a bloodbath.
   
   
   
3. Whether the Wildlings will act as a unified force behind Tormund or not. In addition to my gut feeling about Selyse backing Marsh, I keep thinking that the story about Selyse supporting some random never heard of Wildling to be the next Wildling King was not introduced randomly and might result in divided loyalties among the Wildlings. If it turns out that there is a Wildling splinter group that now supports Selyse, and Selyse is in league with Marsh, we would have a massive fight between, on the one side, Tormund's wildlings and maybe some of the NW loyal to Jon and, on the other, NW supporting Marsh, the Queen's Men and the splinter Wildlings. This = bloodbath and full meltdown scenarios.
   
   
   
4. And finally, whether Mel was in any way a participant in the attack on Jon. This obviously goes to whether she will want to save or revive Jon. But there is also the question, assuming Selyse was in it with Marsh, of whether the Queen's men are really Mel's men or Selyse's men and which of those two they would follow if Selyse turns out to have a different agenda than Mel.
   

GRRM hurry up and write TWOW - we are dying of curiosity here!

[Bushido]

Chaos,Wildings scared and acting out of fear.

[DaveSnow House Stark]

Ok, the original question was, your response. Mine was, damn! Killing off my favorite character. I am not sure that he is dead as no one ever seems to be dead, Cat, Brienne, until they are wight!

As for the aftermath, chaos seems like a fair assessment. The end of NW? This would allow the Wights to head south because after all Winter is coming.

[Real Heir of Bear Island]

I agree that a bloodbath will happen. Queensmen, NW and wildlings alike go into all out war. John Snow loyalists join the wildlings. I belive Selyse and Shireen may be killed as a result.

[Mammothsbane]

It's going to be a mess. An epic free-for-all. Most likely the Queen's Men will be pissed at Wun Wun for killing Patrek of King's Mountain, so they'll attack the Wildlings. Jon doesn't have many supporters at Castle Black, so it'll end up being Bowen's NW + Queen's Men v.s. Tormund and his Wildlings.

I agree that most people overestimate Tormund's bromance with Jon. I don't think they're much of friends... I also don't think Tormund has forgotten that Jon betrayed him and his Wildlings. Their alliance is strictly out of convenience and necessity at this point. Granted, he seems pretty cool with him at the end of Jon's last chapter, but I don't think it's all sunshine and rainbows.

[DireFree]

Undoubtedly Jon will warg into Ghost i.e.. Robin Hobb Farseer Trilogy when the bastard enters his wolf only to return once his body has healed. (sorry can't remember the exact way it happened been a long time since I've read it) Also you have the precedent of Bran having a spiritual awakening when he was crippled.

As for the rest there will be a blood bath. How close Tormund was to Jon or not is moot as it will still be Crows vs Wildings. The Crows at CB are only about 300 as there were only 500 before Joer Mormont took 200 north. Selyse and the QG will hole up in their tower and think their shit don't stink.

[Erudain]

It's going to be a mess. An epic free-for-all. Most likely the Queen's Men will be pissed at Wun Wun for killing Patrek of King's Mountain, so they'll attack the Wildlings. Jon doesn't have many supporters at Castle Black, so it'll end up being Bowen's NW + Queen's Men v.s. Tormund and his Wildlings.

I agree that most people overestimate Tormund's bromance with Jon. I don't think they're much of friends... I also don't think Tormund has forgotten that Jon betrayed him and his Wildlings. Their alliance is strictly out of convenience and necessity at this point. Granted, he seems pretty cool with him at the end of Jon's last chapter, but I don't think it's all sunshine and rainbows.

Really?....Jon doesn't seem to have many supporters among the top bosses of the NW at Castle Black, Eastwatch or Shadowtower but the average NW guy (Edd, Satin, Leathers, etc..) seems to really like him....I think lots of them will jump on Marsh an Co. and if a fight breaks out they will figth alongside the Wildings

[Little Wing]

All hell breaks loose...

Poor Wun Wun, I wonder what'll happen to him, he was crazed with fear, poor thing :crying:

And I can't even start to think about Ghost... I hope Mel gets to him first, because they will want to kill Ghost as well.

But the thing is, the way the chapter ends, (all he felt was cold) - as many speculate, the Others are probably coming, so when I say all hell breaks loose, I don't mean metaphorically :frown5:

[The Night's Prince]

Shireen is already dead according to Val, sooo...