Did Robert's Rebellion lack popular appeal?

[Chaircat Meow]

Something that strikes me.

The whole realm (according to Jaime) knew king Aerys was losing his mind. During the course of the war four Lords Paramount raise their banners to fight him and in all but one of those regions, namely the north, they face opposition from bannermen who stay loyal to the king. Jon Arryn had to fight a lord loyal to Aerys at Gulltown, Hoster Tully had a fair few Targ loyalists among his banners and Robert of course fought Summerhall against Stormlords. The thing though is that no one, it seems, decided to defy the king where an LP didn't take the lead. The Reach is the big example here. The Tyrells stayed loyal to Aerys and they don't have a massive amount of sway over their banners (see CoK). As far as we know no one in Dorne or the Westerlands was saying, hey, lets go and help Robert, king Aerys is behaving illegally and burning folk and demanding heads, in violation of his feudal contract, despite the fact other bannermen defied their LPs on the king's behalf. Finally, the rebel army at the Trident, 35,000 men, is kinda small for the joint forces of the North, Vale and much of the riverlands and stormlands, while Aerys had 40,000 with his son and another big army under Mace at SE. Anyway, it's funny how we, as readers, tend to support Ned, Jon and Hoster whereas most of westeros, it seems, were not that enamoured.

Thoughts?

[Commander Jon Snow]

I think part of it deals with that many still felt a duty to serve the king for honor. The LP rebelled due to personal reasons ie. Ned and Robert's head with Jon Arryn refusing. Hoster Tully joined for marriage reasons IMO. Dorne would never go against the Targs as their own was the future queen.

[Chaircat Meow]

Yea, what I'm saying is that it appears when you don't have personal reasons to fight the king, people tend to support Aerys. And as most people don't have personal reasons to fight the king, as there are only so many nobles he ever burnt, the rebellion lacked genuine appeal among the lords of the land.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Rebelling against the lawful ruler, whose dynasty has slapped down every rebellion for 300 years, is somthing very serious. Especially if a prodigy crown prince is existent and ready to take over if someday, somehow his dear old dad, a frail old man, should encounter some misfortune.

On the other hand, nobody jumped for the chance to fight for Aerys either, except JonCon. The Tyrells fought a small battle and later sat before a fortress and waited for the end of the war. The Lannisters sat in Casterly Rock. The Greyjoys didn't engage at all. The Dornish were strongarmed to support him.

No one without a stock in commited himself.

And the "small" armies at the Trident are easily explained: 20,000 was a magical border for army sizes in the Middle Ages. Armies much bigger couldn't sustain themselves for extended time. Both sides had several armies (every one below 20,000) in the fields and connected them shortly before the Trident itself. JonCons old host and Rhaegars new one for the loyalists, Roberts Stormlanders were destroyed, Ned, Hoster and Jon Arryn commanded separate armies before the Battle of the Bells and maybe later, too.

[The Crow's Eye]

Well, Rhaegar was very popular throughout the realm, and the fact that he was fighting against the rebellion could very well have led to some of the lords staying on the Targ side. Also, the idea of loyalty to their king probably played a role in the decision not to rebel, and many of those who decided not to rise probably thought that the rebellion would fail, and didn't want to put their heads on the line for it.

[Chaircat Meow]

Except Rhaegar had pretty much abdicated all responsibility when people had to pick sides. Aerys was apparently burning people at random (well, not quite), Rhaegar was loathe to do anything and the king still had more supporters.

[Scipio Africanus]

As I said in another thread, the Iron Throne is very dependant on regional nobs supporting their rule. When enough high nobs are fed up with a king they rebel. But obviously, for whatever reasons, some of the other nobs won't rebel for personal reasons. I don't think in a system like this you will ever get all regional lords to 100% agree with any king, and in times of strife their will be multiple parties all out for themselves.

As for the size of medieval armies, they were nothing like in size of some of antiquity's armies or the armies of the east. 20000 is already considered large. First off keeping armies supplied was hell in medieval European times. Where the Romans had well kept roads and well stationed granaries and forts to keep large numbers of troops permenantly supplied, in medieval Europe armies highly depended on what they could find in the region, significantly downsizing army sizes as there was no structural way to supply large numbers of troops over bad roads and countrysides long since picked clean of food and forage.

At Agincourt, one of the most famous battles in medieval Europe, the English numbered probably around 6-9k and the French 12k (or more). This was considered major back in those days. So it really is no surprise the numbers during Bob's rebellion seem small to us. I think Martin is being realistic here.

[Chaircat Meow]

I'm aware of the usual size of medieval armies but it's GrrM who has Renly leading a 70,000 strong host and has about 60-70,000 men launch a surprise attack on Stannis at the BoBWB.

[butterbumps!]

Anyway, it's funny how we, as readers, tend to support Ned, Jon and Hoster whereas most of westeros, it seems, were not that enamoured.

Thoughts?

I think it's an easy answer, though. Something tells me that if "Spice up my boner" Aerys cooked a few Tyrells alive, the Reach would have turned against the Targs as well. I don't really think the regions that stayed out of it/ sided with the Targs did so out of any sort of love for them. I think they just weren't the targets of Targ madness at that point. I get the sense that a lot of them kind of "just wanted to see where this was going," so to speak. Let everyone else fight it out and see what happens.

Are you more asking why the other Houses didn't see the noble burnings as self-evident sins against humanity the way we do? Or extend the logic that if this could happen to Starks, maybe it could happen to me?

Truth be told, I get the sense that they'd see the burning of nobles like this more as opportunities for their own advancement than look at this as an issue of morality. The weaker the other major Houses are by virtue of the number of nobles being cooked, the better off it is for those who aren't allied with them. It eliminates competition.

[OberynBlackfyre]

This was the first time in about 300 years that someone with non Targaryen blood tried to defy the Dragons. Other rebellions in the past had been met with defeat, and Robert's Rebellion was largely started because of personal happenings (The Lyanna abduction, Brand and Rickard being burned). The Tyrells and other bannermen could care less about Lyanna and what happens to some northerners so they backed what they felt was the rightful king. Sure Aerys was mad, but so had a lot of the other Dragon kings been as well. Plus, Rhaegar who seemed like a strapping young lad was next in line so I don't think people really sought out to kill Aerys all that much.

I know it's crazy, but I did read a thread where they were talking about a "Northern Conspiracy" to take down the Dragons from the throne that started with Rickard Stark and Hoster Tully. It just seemed all too coincidental that more than half the wardens had decided to marry out their children/create ties that strengthened their houses together. Arryn fostering both Robert and Ned at the Eyrie, while marrying Brandon, then Ned to Tully's, then Robert being promised to Lyanna......

[Chaircat Meow]

Are you more asking why the other Houses didn't see the noble burnings as self-evident sins against humanity the way we do? Or extend the logic that if this could happen to Starks, maybe it could happen to me?

Yup. I was. I don't really see how most houses in the Reach gain by Starks being cooked, and plotting your advancement if you think the king is an irrational loony is irrational. But, yea, there are always going to be some bannermen eager to bring the LP down a few pegs by seeking patronage from the king, so some fairly normal mechanisms are going to be at work here too.

[Chaircat Meow]

I know it's crazy, but I did read a thread where they were talking about a "Northern Conspiracy" to take down the Dragons from the throne that started with Rickard Stark and Hoster Tully. It just seemed all too coincidental that more than half the wardens had decided to marry out their children/create ties that strengthened their houses together. Arryn fostering both Robert and Ned at the Eyrie, while marrying Brandon, then Ned to Tully's, then Robert being promised to Lyanna......

I know and I don't think it's crazy. Those marriage alliances are suspicious and there are some hints here and there that they were viewed as such.

[TheFlayedMan]

Because they weren't personally affected by Aerys's madness and had no stake in the war. Why would they risk everything they had by siding with the rebels?

[The Other Others]

The other houses were waiting for him to die so Rhaegar could be king. Some of them may have decided to speed it up (Duskendale) but all they did was make it worse.

[The Fallen]

` I had commented on a previous thread about how bad-ass it was for Jon to defy Aerys and call his banners. At the time he did it it was suicide. It was unheard of and they were called rebels for a reason. Houses Stark and Baratheon had no choice as Robert and Ned's heads were being called for. Even Hoster Tully took a big risk and I don't think it was simply for positioning, he could've done that with the Targs.

The enormity of these actions escapes most readers because we pick up the story 15 years after the rebellion and the Targs are pretty much forgotten. Had these four Lord Paramounts failed it likely would've meant the end of their lines, from the elderly to any babe at the breast.

Unfortunately, rebellions/revolutions sometimes lead to multiple ones, as was the case with the French revolution. But the rebellion itself was daring, risky and as they say, "with big risks come big rewards," and that was the case with these rebels.

Edited for errors.

[butterbumps!]

Yup. I was. I don't really see how most houses in the Reach gain by Starks being cooked, and plotting your advancement if you think the king is an irrational loony is irrational.

Yea, the lack of "it could happen to us, too" thought process is really strange to me. Still, and I'm trying to make the irrational rational here, these "noble pot roasts" would theoretically create a power vacuum, one that the Tyrells in particular had previously filled. I could see certain families hoping to gain control over the seats of power that would ostensibly be lost by destroying the families. And/ or more influence in court, better favors, etc.

Perhaps the thought is that if they fought for Aerys they'd be free from the sort of punishments the other Houses faced. That somehow Aerys would recognize the loyalty there. If this is the case, it suggests they didn't know the full extents of Aerys' pathos.

Are you leaning toward any conspiracies, though? Like support for Aerys is really a feint or something?

[The Fallen]

Like support for Aerys is really a feint or something?

I think the Tyrells fall into this category. Not so much a feint, but I think once they saw which the wind was blowing they figured Storm's End would serve them well. They were supporting the Targs, but not really hampering the rebels. Ultimately they would've been able to not look bad in the eyes of either of those parties.

[TheFlayedMan]

Brandon Stark sealed his fate, along with his father's, when he rode into King's Landing threatening to kill the Prince and heir of the Iron Throne. Aerys was mad, sure, but this was exceptional circumstances. The Tyrells and Martells had no reason to fear receiving the Targaryen treatment, provided they didn't antagonise the insane king. Aerys was open-handed to the supporters who pleased him, and the Targaryens could not risk losing the support of any of the major houses, even with a victory over the rebels.

It's not hard to believe that Aerys wouldn't have gone insane of the Reach or Dorne after a civil war that almost ripped the kingdom apart, and even if he did I doubt his men who helped him burn Rickard Stark alive would have allowed it, having just experienced the potential consequences.

[Chaircat Meow]

Yea, the lack of "it could happen to us, too" thought process is really strange to me. Still, and I'm trying to make the irrational rational here, these "noble pot roasts" would theoretically create a power vacuum, one that the Tyrells in particular had previously filled. I could see certain families hoping to gain control over the seats of power that would ostensibly be lost by destroying the families. And/ or more influence in court, better favors, etc.

Perhaps the thought is that if they fought for Aerys they'd be free from the sort of punishments the other Houses faced. That somehow Aerys would recognize the loyalty there. If this is the case, it suggests they didn't know the full extents of Aerys' pathos.

Are you leaning toward any conspiracies, though? Like support for Aerys is really a feint or something?

This is kinda what I'm getting at.

There is some evidence Aerys was actually still shrewd and cunning enough to hide his full proclivities from his lords. So, irrc, he orders his pyromancers to secrete the wildfire around KL when all the KG, saving Jaime, are away, and Rhaegar is devoting his attention to putting the army in order. So, he clearly wasn't loopy enough to go blabbing his secrets when they could get him into trouble, despite his obvious displays of ineptitude and madness in the throne room, which earned him the name king Scab.

I also wonder if some lords didn't read a strong, if twisted, logic into Aerys' actions as regards the Starks. I don't have DwD to hand now, but Aerys was informed the tourney at HH might be used to consider his deposition and he took action to avert this, by going there himself. Did he see the Stark-Tully-Baratheon marriages as part of this plot? Did anyone else? Did Aerys think Rhaegar-Lyanna was an attempt to forestall a Stark-Baratheon connection? We also know, again, irrc, that the lords were unhappy the Targs didn't like intermarriage with their nobles. A sign Aerys thought something like the post-rebellion political setup was being planned in addition to a contingency to supplant him with Rhaegar? There could have been two plots in the offing, at least in the mind of Aerys fed by Varys. And did people automatically assume Varys was making all this stuff up, if this is what he was saying? And so in this light, Aerys actions, while hardly appropriate, or even, in all probability legal, cease to look wholly mad.

And the demands for Ned and Robert. Do we know if there were accusations of some sort here, hints they were involved in this conspiracy, based on info he got from Rickard, he of the southron ambitions? Did Varys claim this was what was going on, at least? Not that Ned and Robert were, obviously.

Now, I'm not saying half of this is likely, but I wonder if the start of the war and the years leading up to it really painted Aerys in such a manifestly crazy light, to most of his lords, that advancement or living under him were considered impossible and that his lords wouldn't, actually, be suspicious some LPs were exploiting the king's illness for their own ends and got their fingers burnt as a result.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

I'm aware of the usual size of medieval armies but it's GrrM who has Renly leading a 70,000 strong host and has about 60-70,000 men launch a surprise attack on Stannis at the BoBWB.

Up the Rose Road, the highway into the fertile Reach, in friendly country, along the main food import route to Kings Landing itself, during the harvest. Feeding such an army under such conditions would be still difficult and very vulnerable, but doable. And Renley was arrogant enough to try.

The Riverlands were somewhat more standard terrain.