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US Politics: Elecciones Generales 8 De Noviembre, 2012


NestorMakhnosLovechild

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I was suprised to see Colorado so close. I work in Boulder County(heavy liberal) and maybe it is just how vocal Romney supporters are, but it sure doesn't feel close.

Meaning you think it's going to Romney?

The GOP base is plenty fired-up, so they create lots of heat.

Something really strange that I've noticed:

I used to live in the PacNW, and tons of folks up there had lawn signs and bumper stickers for their POTUS candidates. And while it's left-leaning, it was like everyone did it, so you saw tons of Bush/Cheney and McCain/Palin stuff.

I'm in LA now, and I almost never see either. Is this an LA thing, or has the internet changed the role of that stuff, or other?

ETA: RCP has Obama +1.0 in Colorado and climbing. He can win without Ohio if he wins Iowa, Ohio, and Nevada.

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I still hope out hope for both.

NC has seen a RIDICULOUS amount of African-American voting. Like 30% of the AA population of NC has voted already. And pretty obviously, for Obama. And it seems a huge portion of them are new voters, brought to the polls by GOTV efforts, which means they are basically "uncounted voters" under Likely Voter models. Which basically makes them free voters on top of the already existing numbers.

CO I'm just hopeful for, but hell, I'm an optimist like that.

I actually think CO will go for Obama. The reason is that he has a far, far superior ground game there. He's ahead in polling too, so I'd put him as the odds on favorite no matter what the polls say.

FL and VA are 50/50, and I give each of the campaigns one state each.

I've talked myself off the ledge, and am ready to make my final prediction. Here it goes:

Obama 303, Romney 235

Obama gets: WI, MI, PA, VA, CO, NH, IA and OH. Romney gets NC and FL. (Edit: Forgot NV, thats with O too)

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2012/oct/15/us-election-ballots-listed

Oregon has a proposal to legalize Marijuana use (I think) and Michigan, as far as I can tell, one that would allow collective bargaining. (It wasn't before?) I love this downballot picayune stuff, theres such a wealth of odd detail there. I wish we got to vote on this kind of stuff (well, not really, but I wish I got to keep track of the voting for this kind of stuff.)

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It's on in MN, too. Last I saw, the polls were 50/50 for an amendment defining marriage as between one man and one woman. I've alerted my family that anyone voting in favor of the amendment will be disowned. I can handle other political disagreements, but not this.

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on the other hand, no one's really bothered to systematically and consistently thoroughly poll the uncontested states, perhaps we're in for some electoral craziness wherein Romney wins west coast states no one has polled in four years that everyone assumes are safe blue. ;) It's entirely possible the state national discrepency is due to underpolling at the 50 state level and overpolling at the swing state level.

There's actually more polling of the non-swing states than you think. Its just that it always confirms to our expectations so it never gets much press. Any state with a competitive senate race has seen tons of polling, and often those polls include presidential numbers, but there's only so many times you can see O+20 or so in Massachusetts before no one cares anymore.

And in other states, there's usually a university or radio/TV station that will commission at least a few polls (especially one in October) just to have something to publish. We even have polls of places like Kansas and Oklahoma (and Obama's actually doing roughly where he was in 2008, so that seems to dispel the myth that Romney will overtake the PV because of racking up huge margins in red states.

And PPP is in the process of doing a marathon of polling; every swing state and a whole bunch of potentially closer swing states. I saw them tweet that they only found O+6 in Oregon, which is a little close (and a big dropoff from 2008), but better than Kerry's +4 win in 2004. And Oregon was always pretty much the only "safe" blue state that might've gotten picked off; but the fact that Romney never contested it suggests his campaign's polling never thought they'd be able to get it close enough.

I've talked myself off the ledge, and am ready to make my final prediction. Here it goes:

Obama 303, Romney 235

Obama gets: WI, MI, PA, VA, CO, NH, IA and OH. Romney gets NC and FL. (Edit: Forgot NV, thats with O too)

I guess its close enough to the election to do these. My mine is Obama 323 Romney 215.

Obama gets every swing state except NC and CO (just have a bad feeling about that one, and its the one state where I don't like the early voting numbers, I'd love to be wrong though). And yes, I'm quite confident in Obama taking Florida, which makes just about everything else a moot point.

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It's on in MN, too. Last I saw, the polls were 50/50 for an amendment defining marriage as between one man and one woman. I've alerted my family that anyone voting in favor of the amendment will be disowned. I can handle other political disagreements, but not this.

I will be doing my civic duty and vote that crud down. I find it irritating that the State Legislator is trying to end run the Gov. and trying to rule by referendum.

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I will be doing my civic duty and vote that crud down. I find it irritating that the State Legislator is trying to end run the Gov. and trying to rule by referendum.

Bunch of ingrates. I know my grandmother is voting yes. I can't disown her - she's already written off me, my sister, and my brother for voting no. Cagey old bird, Grandma. Beat us to the red button.

I'm really happy to hear you're voting it down. I've done what I can from afar.

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Bunch of ingrates. I know my grandmother is voting yes. I can't disown her - she's already written off me, my sister, and my brother for voting no. Cagey old bird, Grandma. Beat us to the red button.

I'm really happy to hear you're voting it down. I've done what I can from afar.

I find the whole thing irritating, especially after a couple of larger businesses and corporations inside of MN asked the Legislator not to do it because they are afraid it would create a hostile business climate. It just boggles my mind. I am glad that Dayton has been standing strong on certain issues and making decent use of the bully pulpit. The Republican party in MN feels really inept.

Of course, again, it really comes down to the fact that we are all held hostage by old people.

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Apart from the downticket senate races, it is a bit concerning to see the gay marriage initiatives in Maine, Maryland and Washington get so little attention. I hope at least one of them gets through......

In Maryland it has been a pretty big deal. Last polling I heard was pretty evenly split, but there have been a lot more commercials for it than against.

We have 2 serious questions on the ballot that are getting all the attention, 6--gay marriage and 7--expanded gambling. these two get all the attention

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I will be doing my civic duty and vote that crud down. I find it irritating that the State Legislator is trying to end run the Gov. and trying to rule by referendum.

Thank you for your vote. Should you decide you want a same-sex spouse, we in the Homofacist Society will endeavor to secure you one.

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Romney/Ryan ads while watching clips on the YouTube Glee channel. [i pretty much only watch the gay romance songs.] Maybe there's a good reason, but I couldn't help thinking what a bunch of fucking morons these guys are at everything they do.

eta:

Case in point:

Giuliani: Obama’s ‘Incompetence’ Has Killed Americans, He Should Resign

GIULIANI: If [Romney] can have the same success for us that he had in running the Olympics, maybe something like what happened in Libya could have been avoided!

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GIULIANI: If [Romney] can have the same success for us that he had in running the Olympics, maybe something like what happened in Libya could have been avoided!

So has Giuliani just recently fired his speechwriter or something? Because I refuse to believe this sentence was written beforehand by a human being.

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