US Politics: Elecciones Generales 8 De Noviembre, 2012

[Guest]

Reagan was a fascist dick (okay, plenty of presidents were, but still) whose dissimulations and bald-faced bullshit still stain our national psyche and have engendered two festering cancer known as neoliberal economics and the Christian Right.

I love the randomness of this post. I suspect it's in response to Fez's Atlantic article?

What's so bad about neoliberal economics?

[The Undead Martyr]

I love the randomness of this post. I suspect it's in response to Fez's Atlantic article?

What's so bad about neoliberal economics?

Yep, should have quoted it...

As for neo-liberalism- globalization is as laissez-faire as it gets, and between environmental damage and the insidious power of TNCs it clearly represents capitalism at its worst. Free trade throws crippled lambs among the lions and calls it competition.

[sologdin]

so bad about neoliberal economics

neo-liberal economics includes several related projects: deregulation of markets, liberalization of capital, privatization of state properties & services; reduction of tax rates, balanced budgets, free trade; and so on.

these aren't necessarily affirmative evils, but, yaknow, taken as a whole and prescribed as one-size-fits-all under IMF austerity programs, it's basically market fundamentalism. we've seen the fruits of deregulation in the US. the package is a wrecking ball.

[Sci-2]

we've seen the fruits of deregulation in the US. the package is a wrecking ball.

Not to mention the world. There's a reason people protest the WB and IMF....well, it's the good reason people do. ;-)

[The Undead Martyr]

so bad about neoliberal economics

neo-liberal economics includes several related projects: deregulation of markets, liberalization of capital, privatization of state properties & services; reduction of tax rates, balanced budgets, free trade; and so on.

these aren't necessarily affirmative evils, but, yaknow, taken as a whole and prescribed as one-size-fits-all under IMF austerity programs, it's basically market fundamentalism. we've seen the fruits of deregulation in the US. the package is a wrecking ball.

And when one considers that the southern "producer" countries were basically bullied into embracing the "free market" system by the north, and the subsequent leeching of wealth and erosion of national sovereignty, and allegations of modern imperialism aren't as far fetched. The past few decades are unprecedented in many ways, and the benefits and dilemmas we're confronted with have scaled along with the economy.

Not to mention the world. There's a reason people protest the WB and IMF....well, it's the good reason people do. ;-)

It's also why America has its detractors (to put it mildly) overseas. It's not just that "hate our freedoms" etc. There are very real grievances mixed up in the system.

Ironically, US Corporations are themselves largely outside of the scope of domestic policies. The US gets blamed for US corporations which aren't fully American.

[DaveRoid]

Looks like Obama is picking up steam in Florida and Virginia polls last 3 days between multiple polls. leads from 1 to 3.

The president also has taken over national average trackers by under a point.

[Sixshells]

The outright cynicism is breathtaking.

Mitt made what he called his closing argument for being elected President, part of which was him threatening that there would be another debt ceiling crisis.

So, his argument is based on the fact that the debt ceiling debacle threatened to plunge the economy back into recession and most certainly slowed the rate of recovery and is saying that the GOP will pull the same shit again if he's not elected, but completely refuses to call his party member out on their bullshit tactics. So, basically he's calling his own party a bunch of hypocrites, but...in a good way?

It's worse than that: it's using blackmail as a politic strategy, the same way those big employers said that if Obama were to be reelected they would be lead to let go people. It was mentioned earlier but not linked, there is Krugman's take on this:

But are we ready to become a country in which “Nice country you got here. Shame if something were to happen to it” becomes a winning political argument? I hope not. By all means, vote for Mr. Romney if you think he offers the better policies. But arguing for Mr. Romney on the grounds that he could get things done veers dangerously close to accepting protection-racket politics, which have no place in American life.

[IheartTesla]

Sam Wang has an interesting hypothesis about state vs national polls. According to him (and it does seem to be the case), only 2 of the state races are really close. These would be Florida and Virginia (I take it Colorado and NC are not). That means we will know to great accuracy the outcome of 48-49 states. The EC is not prone to systematic biases.

National polls could be subject to a systematic bias in a way the EC count is not. What that bias is, we dont know yet. And anyway, the national polls are also slowly ticking in the 'right' direction.

[lokisnow]

Sam Wang has an interesting hypothesis about state vs national polls. According to him (and it does seem to be the case), only 2 of the state races are really close. These would be Florida and Virginia (I take it Colorado and NC are not). That means we will know to great accuracy the outcome of 48-49 states. The EC is not prone to systematic biases.

National polls could be subject to a systematic bias in a way the EC count is not. What that bias is, we dont know yet. And anyway, the national polls are also slowly ticking in the 'right' direction.

on the other hand, no one's really bothered to systematically and consistently thoroughly poll the uncontested states, perhaps we're in for some electoral craziness wherein Romney wins west coast states no one has polled in four years that everyone assumes are safe blue. ;) It's entirely possible the state national discrepency is due to underpolling at the 50 state level and overpolling at the swing state level.

[Ormond]

Sam Wang has an interesting hypothesis about state vs national polls. According to him (and it does seem to be the case), only 2 of the state races are really close. These would be Florida and Virginia (I take it Colorado and NC are not). That means we will know to great accuracy the outcome of 48-49 states. The EC is not prone to systematic biases.

National polls could be subject to a systematic bias in a way the EC count is not. What that bias is, we dont know yet. And anyway, the national polls are also slowly ticking in the 'right' direction.

I think I understand his point about the national polls.

It is interesting that you say he says only Florida and Virginia are close. As of today his EC map has Colorado and Virginia light blue (which I assume means "leaning Obama") and North Carolina and Florida both white (which I assume means "tossup".)

[IheartTesla]

http://election.princeton.edu/believe-national-or-state-polls-2nov2012.php

He might just mean the ones that are in the O column and will trend away from him because of the bias?

And locke, the solid red and blue states have been undersampled, but there are some polls, believe it or not, from California and Georgia and Tennessee. I dont recall the take home message from it.....

Finally, I am getting standard liberal jitters because the Romney campaign seems to think its internal polls are better than conventional wisdom......but that's just me.

[ThinkerX]

Of possible indirect interest to the whole polling mess:

I live in Alaska - a 'safe' Romney or Red state. I am a contract employee of the postal service. Some weeks back, higher ups in post office world came by and said to expect a massive influx of political fliers starting about two weeks prior to the election - or something like ten days ago.

Instead, apart from some purely local campaign stuff - and not even all that much - there has been *NO* significant uptick in political advertising through the mail as compared to say...six months ago.

Six months ago, I used to get a couple of political pollster calls every week. As of now, its been weeks since the last such call.

This makes me think that the respective campaigns are so completely certain of the outcome in 'safe' states like mine they're not even trying anymore. (I can't speak to to television adds, though - I shut that off six months ago and have no great desire to turn it back on, which owing to a transmission relay issue would be a bit of a pain anyhow.)

To me, it looks like the various predictions could be way out of whack simply because of this complacency.

[The Undead Martyr]

Of possible indirect interest to the whole polling mess:

I live in Alaska - a 'safe' Romney or Red state. I am a contract employee of the postal service. Some weeks back, higher ups in post office world came by and said to expect a massive influx of political fliers starting about two weeks prior to the election - or something like ten days ago.

Instead, apart from some purely local campaign stuff - and not even all that much - there has been *NO* significant uptick in political advertising through the mail as compared to say...six months ago.

Six months ago, I used to get a couple of political pollster calls every week. As of now, its been weeks since the last such call.

This makes me think that the respective campaigns are so completely certain of the outcome in 'safe' states like mine they're not even trying anymore. (I can't speak to to television adds, though - I shut that off six months ago and have no great desire to turn it back on, which owing to a transmission relay issue would be a bit of a pain anyhow.)

To me, it looks like the various predictions could be way out of whack simply because of this complacency.

Especially when that complacency is blared across the NYT and Daily Show to the public. Descending from bullshit mountain indeed.

[Shryke]

Sam Wang has an interesting hypothesis about state vs national polls. According to him (and it does seem to be the case), only 2 of the state races are really close. These would be Florida and Virginia (I take it Colorado and NC are not). That means we will know to great accuracy the outcome of 48-49 states. The EC is not prone to systematic biases.

National polls could be subject to a systematic bias in a way the EC count is not. What that bias is, we dont know yet. And anyway, the national polls are also slowly ticking in the 'right' direction.

I still hope out hope for both.

NC has seen a RIDICULOUS amount of African-American voting. Like 30% of the AA population of NC has voted already. And pretty obviously, for Obama. And it seems a huge portion of them are new voters, brought to the polls by GOTV efforts, which means they are basically "uncounted voters" under Likely Voter models. Which basically makes them free voters on top of the already existing numbers.

CO I'm just hopeful for, but hell, I'm an optimist like that.

[Shryke]

To me, it looks like the various predictions could be way out of whack simply because of this complacency.

This "complacency" is likely based on reams of internal poll numbers. It's down to the wire now and they are focusing on the states that have a chance of flipping. The fundamentals of a place like Alaska or Washington State have not changed dramatically over the last few months.

[ThinkerX]

This "complacency" is likely based on reams of internal poll numbers. It's down to the wire now and they are focusing on the states that have a chance of flipping. The fundamentals of a place like Alaska or Washington State have not changed dramatically over the last few months.

Could still account for the differences between the state and national polls, though, especially with the campaigns pretty much utterly ignoring safe states.

'We'll just use the numbers from six months ago'

[Whoring Drunkard]

I still hope out hope for both.

NC has seen a RIDICULOUS amount of African-American voting. Like 30% of the AA population of NC has voted already. And pretty obviously, for Obama. And it seems a huge portion of them are new voters, brought to the polls by GOTV efforts, which means they are basically "uncounted voters" under Likely Voter models. Which basically makes them free voters on top of the already existing numbers.

CO I'm just hopeful for, but hell, I'm an optimist like that.

I'm pretty sure Sam Wang thinks CO is not close because it is in Obama's favour, not the other way around.

[SkynJay]

I was suprised to see Colorado so close. I work in Boulder County(heavy liberal) and maybe it is just how vocal Romney supporters are, but it sure doesn't feel close.

[Jaxom 1974]

Finally, I am getting standard liberal jitters because the Romney campaign seems to think its internal polls are better than conventional wisdom......but that's just me.

How good can their internal stuff be? This is the same staff who seems incapable of buying television ad time in a way that isn't overspending because they seen to not know what they're doing...

[Shryke]

Honestly, Romney's Campaign is the greatest argument against him being able to run a country.