Why does everyone think Aegon is fake v.2

[TheWhiteRabbit]

I'm cool with that

[naik2902]

i dont want aegon anymore. too many aegon since 300 yrs.

[Cinder Stark]

So, you think that she drank Moon Tea and was done with the unwanted pregnancy? Why would Barristan remember a stillborn daughter, then? (Do look up stillborn before you say miscarriage, stillborn is commonly full term.) But, let me not spoil you for the future any further, just ignore. There are more than a few that recognize this scenario (Elia and Ashara swapping babies at birth) as fitting into the puzzle quite well. It is not based on any external works, it is based upon the clues that we have so far. If it is incorrect, it is incorrect, but we certainly know that fAegon is not a true Targaryen and that Daenerys will expose that little secret, eventually. If it is incorrect then Varys is closer to a liar than I believed.

Plans sometimes fall short, it's pretty simple, The crown prince thought he would win and deal with his father after all is said and done. He died, Elia died, Aegon died, his daughter died, and his father the mad king died. The story is complicated enough with the whole r+l=j thing. Jon Snow is the only hidden king and was the only surviving baby from Roberts rebellion because he was born in a remote tower.

[darksellsword]

I have a crackpot theory hopefully some of you will bother reading, feel free to bury me in reasons why it couldnt be true or how much you dislike the idea but. What if Varys is a Targaryen the first born son of Aerys and in some mad moment Aerys had his balls cut off and hid his identity so Rhaegar could continue the bloodline. It would explain why hes so willing to risk the lives of the other Targaryens but also helpful to them at the same time, perhaps he is not bald but shaves his head because he has silver hair.

[mrlukeduke]

Haha that's pretty out there; maybe start a new thread for it though?

[Malcolm of House Tucker]

I really believe Prince Aegon is the real deal, despite the series cryptically hinting at a "fake dragon" to pop up somewhere along the line. I think it is credible for Varys to have performed a baby-swap before or during the sack of King's Landing. It's not the craziest thing he has done in the series. Also, if Aegon was fake, why would he bother to say otherwise to a dying Kevan Lannister? A possible explanation for the "mummer's dragon" is that the people of Westeros will view Aegon as a fake, because everyone has been hearing reports coming from the East of a dragon queen with dragons, and now that someone claiming to be a "dragon" has set foot in Westeros without possessing any actual dragons, they will think him to be a fraud, even if he has true Tagaryen blood.

Another reason why I think Aegon is the real deal is because of hints that Dany can't have children anymore. Assuming the Targaryen dynasty is revived and their attempts to reclaim the Iron Throne aren't just a colossal mummer's farce, and assuming Dany truly is barren, it would be up to Aegon to carry on the Targaryen lineage with a wife who isn't Dany. I know Jon Snow fans out there may contest that he could somehow be brought in to rule the Seven Kingdoms, but legitimizing a bastard Targaryen to do that would be just asking for another War of Five Kings.

One final thought: Varys and Illyrio have made multiple well-concealed master plans involving the Targaryens and how to return them to power. If Aegon really is a fake, I don't think those two would have carelessly sent Dany and Viserys off to the Dothraki sea, not knowing if they would end up getting themselves killed and what not. Someone could have always gotten lucky and learned of the farce, but at least Varys and Illyrio would have had real Targaryens to fall back on. I dunno, I just feel like sending Dany and her brother that far East was a risking gambit, and that they only did it because they had another true Targaryen as a backup plan.

[Suzanna Stormborn]

I think your misunderstanding the gravity of the situation KL was facing prior to the Trident. Just because Rhaegar had confidence in his win over the rebels does NOT mean there still could not have been a contingency plan in place. Also - just because theres a possibility that Rhaegar didn't initiate the process by which Aegon was taken from KL, doesn't mean it wasn't initiated by the countless number of people who had a strong interest in maintaining the Targaryan dynasty, or just somebody (like Varys) who is diabolical and already planning 15-20 years down the line.

We also know that Rhaegar believed his son was the PTWP - providing further evidence as to why he would place an outsized importance on him rather than the rest of the family.

With regards to why he didn't spirit Rhaenys (or Elia for that matter) out of the capitol - I think by now we know how much importance is placed on a MALE heir. Not that Rhaegar (or whoever made the ultimate decision to make the swap) didn't care about his daughter, but the real importance lay with the continuation of the male line.

@DaeneryStormBorn got it right a few posts above:

Here's what I ultimately think: Aegon is the legit son of Rhaegar/Elia, however he's not the son that Rhaegar believed was the PTWP. Rhaegar misread the prophecy, not realizing that he would soon have another son (Jon) and THAT son was the one to actually fulfill the prophecy.

Yes absolutely!! I think in Dany's vision of her brother in the house of the undying, he is with lyanna stark and they are talking about the prince that was promised. I think Rhaegar was no longer in love with Elia and was setting her aside due to her illness and the stillborn baby. i think he knows then that Jon is the PTWP.

[Suzanna Stormborn]

GRRM is not the only one that can bury a dual meaning. ;) I don't believe that Aegon is Rhaegar's true son, and Varys doesn't know.

ETA: This is in spite of the Blackfyre (red herrings) hints.

From what we have seen, Varys is no fool, and he would not support anything that is incorrect. If he thinks Aegon is real then I absolutely believe him!

[Suzanna Stormborn]

I really believe Prince Aegon is the real deal, despite the series cryptically hinting at a "fake dragon" to pop up somewhere along the line. I think it is credible for Varys to have performed a baby-swap before or during the sack of King's Landing. It's not the craziest thing he has done in the series. Also, if Aegon was fake, why would he bother to say otherwise to a dying Kevan Lannister? A possible explanation for the "mummer's dragon" is that the people of Westeros will view Aegon as a fake, because everyone has been hearing reports coming from the East of a dragon queen with dragons, and now that someone claiming to be a "dragon" has set foot in Westeros without possessing any actual dragons, they will think him to be a fraud, even if he has true Tagaryen blood.

Another reason why I think Aegon is the real deal is because of hints that Dany can't have children anymore. Assuming the Targaryen dynasty is revived and their attempts to reclaim the Iron Throne aren't just a colossal mummer's farce, and assuming Dany truly is barren, it would be up to Aegon to carry on the Targaryen lineage with a wife who isn't Dany. I know Jon Snow fans out there may contest that he could somehow be brought in to rule the Seven Kingdoms, but legitimizing a bastard Targaryen to do that would be just asking for another War of Five Kings.

One final thought: Varys and Illyrio have made multiple well-concealed master plans involving the Targaryens and how to return them to power. If Aegon really is a fake, I don't think those two would have carelessly sent Dany and Viserys off to the Dothraki sea, not knowing if they would end up getting themselves killed and what not. Someone could have always gotten lucky and learned of the farce, but at least Varys and Illyrio would have had real Targaryens to fall back on. I dunno, I just feel like sending Dany and her brother that far East was a risking gambit, and that they only did it because they had another true Targaryen as a backup plan.

How do we know that Jon is a bastard Targaryen???

Rhaegar could have easily set his marraige to Elia aside in secret and married Lyanna before she had Jon. I mean there is a lot of uncovered information on what really went down with Lyanna at Sunspear during the war. I CANNOT wait for someone to find Howland Reed or Benjen Stark to answer these God Damn questions!! they are the only ones left living who have any answers for us. and why does Meera reed tell Bran the Harrenhal story like that? she keeps asking him, 'your father never told you thins story?'

so does that mean she knows what it all really means? she knows that Lyanna and rhaegar had a relationship/baby? it is very unclear how much the Reed children actually know.

[Lummel]

I have a crackpot theory hopefully some of you will bother reading, feel free to bury me in reasons why it couldnt be true or how much you dislike the idea but. What if Varys is a Targaryen the first born son of Aerys and in some mad moment Aerys had his balls cut off and hid his identity so Rhaegar could continue the bloodline...

That's semi-crackpot only I'm afraid! Some of us have speculated that Varys is related to the Targaryens, maybe via Aerion, maybe via the Blackfyres and that the reason he was castrated was because there is power in a kings blood - ie power to work magic. Therefore he shaved his head to hide the hair colour and possibly that was one reason why Aerys brought him over, thinking he could trust him as a distant relative. :dunno:

[darksellsword]

That's semi-crackpot only I'm afraid! Some of us have speculated that Varys is related to the Targaryens, maybe via Aerion, maybe via the Blackfyres and that the reason he was castrated was because there is power in a kings blood - ie power to work magic. Therefore he shaved his head to hide the hair colour and possibly that was one reason why Aerys brought him over, thinking he could trust him as a distant relative. :dunno:

I like that Variation too. I think it would just be so clever on Grrms part to hide a Targaryen in plain sight in kings landing. Illyrio

gives us the background of Varys in ADWD telling Tyrion that Varys came to Pentos from Myr when he was just twelve years old and

that all the others made fun of his accent if i remember correctly. Targaryen Princes accents would sound strange to someone from

Pentos and i would imagine children wouldnt be able to Identify which accents were from where.What if he was kidnapped and castrated by

an enemy. i have a problem with the idea that Aerys brought him to Kings landing because he could trust him as a distant relative

because why would you trust someone if you are only distantly related to them and why in seven hells would he bring a famous blackmailer to kings landy especially since i would imagine Aerys being mad was probably prone to extreme paranoia.

Aegon is a fake through and through. The poster that suggested Illyrio Married a black fyre and fathered the fake Aegon hit the nail on the head.

He sent Daenerys and viserys to the Dothraki fully expecting them to be killed. Tyrion questions illyrio constantly and is confused as to what his motives are ,must be more than gold and lands hes after..he wants to put his son on the Iron throne. The Golden company was founded by bitter steel who fled into exile with the blackfyres .Its hinted at in ADWD that the Golden company is not only being paid to follow Aegon in gold but by something more important Blood and that they have their own desire to return "home" to westeros. i see this as evidence that they see Aegon as being one of them by a family blood tie.

[Suzanna Stormborn]

I like that Variation too. I think it would just be so clever on Grrms part to hide a Targaryen in plain sight in kings landing. Illyrio

gives us the background of Varys in ADWD telling Tyrion that Varys came to Pentos from Myr when he was just twelve years old and

that all the others made fun of his accent if i remember correctly. Targaryen Princes accents would sound strange to someone from

Pentos and i would imagine children wouldnt be able to Identify which accents were from where.What if he was kidnapped and castrated by

an enemy. i have a problem with the idea that Aerys brought him to Kings landing because he could trust him as a distant relative

because why would you trust someone if you are only distantly related to them and why in seven hells would he bring a famous blackmailer to kings landy especially since i would imagine Aerys being mad was probably prone to extreme paranoia.

Aegon is a fake through and through. The poster that suggested Illyrio Married a black fyre and fathered the fake Aegon hit the nail on the head.

He sent Daenerys and viserys to the Dothraki fully expecting them to be killed. Tyrion questions illyrio constantly and is confused as to what his motives are ,must be more than gold and lands hes after..he wants to put his son on the Iron throne. The Golden company was founded by bitter steel who fled into exile with the blackfyres .Its hinted at in ADWD that the Golden company is not only being paid to follow Aegon in gold but by something more important Blood and that they have their own desire to return "home" to westeros. i see this as evidence that they see Aegon as being one of them by a family blood tie.

OK supposing you are right about this and varys is in fact a targaryen, illyrio's son by a bastard targeryen woman. what does Varys know about it? You think he shaves his head to hide the color of his hair, so that means he knows exactly who he is. So why is he backing Aegon in KL at the end of DwD? why is hetelling Kevan lannister that Aegon is returning to his rightful throne? wouldn't he want it for himself.

I just feel like the flaw in this theory lies with Varys's personality we have grown to know. He doesn't want power, he just 'serves the realm'. I do think you could be right about Mopatis though. he does seem to have some greedy notions about all this, but Varys is not interested in ruling at all. Do you all agree?

[darksellsword]

ok you made me do it. I have to put on my George r.r. Martin hat and try and get in his head for this one. First of all Aegon wont be who he says he is because its too late in the story to introduce him as a central charecter, he hasnt been a pov charecter even though weve known about him for a while now .Grrm wouldnt take a huge gamble on this guy being accepted not by westeros like in the books but by the fans . I for one dont like the idea of him hes usurped Danys story by being the exile force coming from the free cities taking all the easy options were as Dany has proven herself by being a cunning politician and a compassionate ruler. Id bet my house on Aegon being fake black fyre offspring. With my George hat on i will make another analysis in the prologue for ADWD Varamyr sixskins tells us he chose the name Varamyr what if subconsciously or intentionally Grrm was giving us a hint that the name Varys is an assumed name too, what if Varys real name is Aegon and when he killed Kevan he was talking about himself when he said Aegon is returning to his rightful throne. I dont agree that Varys isnt interested in power ,he is a master of misdirection . The dragon has 3 heads , Jon, Daenerys , if the third is not Lord conningtons Aegon who is it?

[Tini]

How do we know that Jon is a bastard Targaryen???

Rhaegar could have easily set his marraige to Elia aside in secret and married Lyanna before she had Jon. I mean there is a lot of uncovered information on what really went down with Lyanna at Sunspear during the war.

No, he could not easily set aside his marriage to Elia. It was a marriage of state, agreed upon by Aerys and the Martells. Rhaegar would have needed his father's permission to set it aside. After all, Elia Martell had fulfilled her part of the marriage treaty by giving Rhaegar heirs, heirs to the Iron Throne. Setting her aside would have made the children of that union bastards. The Martells would have turned on the Iron Throne.

Whatever the plans were, we know that Elia was not set aside: She remained at court, as Rhaegar's wife.

Rhaegar hinted to Jaime that there were going to be changes on the Iron Throne. If he was planning to overthrow Aerys, it is unlikely that he sought Aerys permission to marry Lyanna. If there was a marriage, it was irregular - and that means their children would be bastards. I don't think Rhaegar cared; once he was king, he could legitimize Lyanna and their children. But he never became king, he died before Aerys did.

Some people claim that the King's Guard remained at the Tower of Joy because they were protecting the future king of Westeros, and consider that proof that Jon must be legitimate. Their presence does not prove that at all. At most it proves that they considered Jon Rhaegar's legitimate heir. But their judgement is questionable: they had chosen to betray Aerys to follow Rhaegar. If they considered Rhaegar their true king, it follows that they accepted his royal right to legitimize his children by Lyanna. But that still does not make Jon a legitimate Targaryen, nor would it make him Aerys' heir - a position Rhaegar lost when he died.

[Suzanna Stormborn]

ok you made me do it. I have to put on my George r.r. Martin hat and try and get in his head for this one. First of all Aegon wont be who he says he is because its too late in the story to introduce him as a central charecter, he hasnt been a pov charecter even though weve known about him for a while now .Grrm wouldnt take a huge gamble on this guy being accepted not by westeros like in the books but by the fans . I for one dont like the idea of him hes usurped Danys story by being the exile force coming from the free cities taking all the easy options were as Dany has proven herself by being a cunning politician and a compassionate ruler. Id bet my house on Aegon being fake black fyre offspring. With my George hat on i will make another analysis in the prologue for ADWD Varamyr sixskins tells us he chose the name Varamyr what if subconsciously or intentionally Grrm was giving us a hint that the name Varys is an assumed name too, what if Varys real name is Aegon and when he killed Kevan he was talking about himself when he said Aegon is returning to his rightful throne. I dont agree that Varys isnt interested in power ,he is a master of misdirection . The dragon has 3 heads , Jon, Daenerys , if the third is not Lord conningtons Aegon who is it?

Wow! Ok all good points. that's f&*king nuts if you are right! I mean he has clearly been a Targaryen supporter all through the usurping and he is the only one from KL that ever meets with IIyrio. but if he is a targaryen with no balls and Dany is barren, then that means the entire Targaryen dynasty can only continue through Jon Snow, which means he absolutely has to survive the stabbing and cannot be brought back from the dead like beric, he has to flat out survive with live sperm in his sack. So I am just not sure. But I def see your points and i have several friends who think Aegon is a fake. But so you think the real baby aegon was killed? or do you think that the real one is still out there somewhere?

[Suzanna Stormborn]

No, he could not easily set aside his marriage to Elia. It was a marriage of state, agreed upon by Aerys and the Martells. Rhaegar would have needed his father's permission to set it aside. After all, Elia Martell had fulfilled her part of the marriage treaty by giving Rhaegar heirs, heirs to the Iron Throne. Setting her aside would have made the children of that union bastards. The Martells would have turned on the Iron Throne.

Whatever the plans were, we know that Elia was not set aside: She remained at court, as Rhaegar's wife.

Rhaegar hinted to Jaime that there were going to be changes on the Iron Throne. If he was planning to overthrow Aerys, it is unlikely that he sought Aerys permission to marry Lyanna. If there was a marriage, it was irregular - and that means their children would be bastards. I don't think Rhaegar cared; once he was king, he could legitimize Lyanna and their children. But he never became king, he died before Aerys did.

Some people claim that the King's Guard remained at the Tower of Joy because they were protecting the future king of Westeros, and consider that proof that Jon must be legitimate. Their presence does not prove that at all. At most it proves that they considered Jon Rhaegar's legitimate heir. But their judgement is questionable: they had chosen to betray Aerys to follow Rhaegar. If they considered Rhaegar their true king, it follows that they accepted his royal right to legitimize his children by Lyanna. But that still does not make Jon a legitimate Targaryen, nor would it make him Aerys' heir - a position Rhaegar lost when he died.

So do you think aegon is a fake? and if he is a fake then Jon would be the heir right? as the only living male targaryen, ppl would have to accept his claim to the throne, right?

[darksellsword]

Rhaegar wouldnt have to set aside any marriage he was the crown prince he can marry more than once im sure. Dany mused on the idea of taking more than one husband so it must be acceptable.Besides that Rhaegar wouldnt of chosen Lyanna Stark to father a child with if the child would be a bastard. just out of interest does anyone know of an instance of a Targaryen female giving birth to a baby that wasnt fully Targaryen? Maybe the only person Dany can have a child with is Jon.

[Suzanna Stormborn]

Rhaegar wouldnt have to set aside any marriage he was the crown prince he can marry more than once im sure. Dany mused on the idea of taking more than one husband so it must be acceptable.Besides that Rhaegar wouldnt of chosen Lyanna Stark to father a child with if the child would be a bastard. just out of interest does anyone know of an instance of a Targaryen female giving birth to a baby that wasnt fully Targaryen? Maybe the only person Dany can have a child with is Jon.

I agree, I don't think Jon would be considered a bastard if he is R+L. I mean he had crowned her queen of love and beauty, and was apparently apart from the sickly Elia for a long time. if anything he didn't declare his love openly for Lyanna because it would insult the hell out of Dorne.

I used to think it would eventually be Jon and Dany together to continue the Targaryen line. But idk she is his aunt, his father's sister, and I know 'the targaryen's have wed brother and sister for centuries' and everyone is OK with that, but incest is incest and it is generally frowned upon and I just don't think GRRM would do that to Jon. Because it is inherently evil, cersei and jaime have shown that. and if everyone condemns them for their incest theywould also have to condemn jon and Dany. I think M Maz dur is right about dany having no more children, she has her dragons, and it sounds like her and drogo's baby was part dragon itself with scales and wings. So i dont think GRRM would subject Jon to any part of that.

--Having said that i have absolutely no idea what other female GRRM could have in mind for Jon, I mean who else is there? it would have to be someone he has never met before right?

[Cinder Stark]

From what we have seen, Varys is no fool, and he would not support anything that is incorrect. If he thinks Aegon is real then I absolutely believe him!

Wow, you trust Varys. The master of whispers, who betrayed the mad king, helped start the war of the 5 kings, from lys who use to steal things and sell them back to the owners back home. Nothing about Varys is trust worthy. Aegon is fake.

[Suzanna Stormborn]

Wow, you trust Varys. The master of whispers, who betrayed the mad king, helped start the war of the 5 kings, from lys who use to steal things and sell them back to the owners back home. Nothing about Varys is trust worthy. Aegon is fake.

Haha, ok yeah I mean I don't trust, but I think he knows what he is doing, i guess i meant that if he believes something i believe it to.

BTW these forums are the most awesome thing I have ever seen and totally give me something to do when it's slow at work.

I do have friends that are into ASOIAF. but not like all the ppl in these forums :) so yeah well met everyone!