Why does everyone think Aegon is fake v.2

[DExit]

I just find it hard to believe. The boy has been dead for seventeen years. There is no DNA evidence to support this, and he just pops up on the radar out of no where.

:agree:

But then, why would Connington go through such hard times fore a fake boy? He seems to me as genuinely thinking he is fighting fore the son of his best friend. Is he deceived as well?

[Ser Lepus]

:agree:

But then, why would Connington go through such hard times fore a fake boy? He seems to me as genuinely thinking he is fighting fore the son of his best friend. Is he deceived as well?

They will think that Connington is trying to put a false pretender on the Iron Throne in order to take revenge on both Robert Baratheon and Aerys Targayren, the two men responsible for his exile and disgrace.

Of course, if Jon Connington and Aegon win, everybody will pretend that they never doubted that Aegon was the real deal. :P

[Ser Ennepe]

Of course, if Jon Connington and Aegon win, everybody will pretend that they never doubted that Aegon was the real deal. :P

That will never ever happen Lepus :D We all know he is fake and he stays fake ^_^

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two years later: All hail Aegon the sixth of his Name! I never doubted that he´s the real deal. :rofl:

[izembaroo]

But if they had a contingency plan - wouldn't it make even more sense for Rhaegar to plan an escape for ALL of his family, and not just Aegon?

Well its not like Aegon just escaped and disappeared, he was replaced by a common folk baby so no one was none the wiser....my point is its easy to swap a baby to safety rather than Elia Martell and her daughter of whatever age, thats why only aegon was taken away to safety. Plus like other people said Aerys II withheld them in his custody during the rebellion.

As for the whole "plan" i dont think Rhaegar had any plan to fall back on if he lost....Im pretty sure it was Targaryen loyalists that served in the Red Keep that did the swapping, most likely it was Varys haha I love that Eunuch such a coy bastard

[izembaroo]

I just find it hard to believe. The boy has been dead for seventeen years. There is no DNA evidence to support this, and he just pops up on the radar out of no where.

If you think about it Bran and Rickon did and are doing the same thing, so really its not that farfetch'd....however I don't think it will take 17 years for them to resurface.

I think the dedication of Jon Connington is enough proof that this Aegon is the real deal, Jon Connington would not betray his best friend and House Targaryen by raising a Blackfyre to the Iron Throne.

What makes this so interesting is that people will be skeptical about his legitimacy just like Arianne as well as you, me, and plenty others

[Ser Ennepe]

I think the dedication of Jon Connington is enough proof that this Aegon is the real deal, Jon Connington would not betray his best friend and House Targaryen by raising a Blackfyre to the Iron Throne.

Well, Varys could also have tricked JonCon about Aegon.

[Ser Lepus]

Well, Varys could also have tricked JonCon about Aegon.

We KNOW that Jon Connington believes Aegon to be real, we have read what is going on into his head, and he believes him to be Rhaegar's kid. But Jon isn't the one who did the swapping, Varys and Illyrio did, so, if Aegon is fake, those could have tricked him.

[Vengeance]

Before ADwD came out, people had been theorising for a decade that Aegon was still alive. When it is finally published and that theory is proven true, people don't like it and insist it must be a bluff. Just seems a bit odd.

I think it's probably something to do with the fact that it was a completely new character, and GRRM dared to buck expectations by not revealing him to be Sam/Edric/Darkstar as some theorised - but I really don't see why people have such trouble swallowing it. If he isn't truly Aegon there's no way anyone can prove it definitively so it's largely irrelevant. What matters is that he has launched an invasion with 10,000 men at his back and is very likely to ally with Dorne, so he has support for his claim. I don't think many realistically expect him to win the game, but he's a new player that's going to allow GRRM to take the plot in a fresh direction - so just run with it.

[DExit]

Aegon is the first boy-king in the stories with good councilors around him (Robb, Joff and Tommen lack(ed) that part). He might achieve something yet!

What matters more to me is that I like him, he isn't a spoiled brat, nor a stupid little boy, he is trained for kingship and believes himself to be a Targ.

Whether you believe him fake or Targ (or Blackfire, would love that), the lad has build some credit by taking his chances and sailing to Westeros- had he turned east towards his aunt, I would have burned the book, he is what the story needed.

[Suzanna Stormborn]

Before ADwD came out, people had been theorising for a decade that Aegon was still alive. When it is finally published and that theory is proven true, people don't like it and insist it must be a bluff. Just seems a bit odd.

I think it's probably something to do with the fact that it was a completely new character, and GRRM dared to buck expectations by not revealing him to be Sam/Edric/Darkstar as some theorised - but I really don't see why people have such trouble swallowing it. If he isn't truly Aegon there's no way anyone can prove it definitively so it's largely irrelevant. What matters is that he has launched an invasion with 10,000 men at his back and is very likely to ally with Dorne, so he has support for his claim. I don't think many realistically expect him to win the game, but he's a new player that's going to allow GRRM to take the plot in a fresh direction - so just run with it.

I feel like if him and Dany ever meet she would be able to tell if he is real or not. I think her dragons would be able to tell.

[Brienne Of Bombay]

The only reason I think Aegon is fake is because of the circumstances under which he was swapped. If a decent explanation is given about it then I won't doubt his authenticity.

[Vengeance]

We already know Varys has a remarkable talent for stealth and that there are many hidden passageways in the Red Keep, it is perfectly plausible that he was able to exfiltrate a baby without anyone noticing.

[Lummel]

Aegon is the first boy-king in the stories with good councilors around him (Robb, Joff and Tommen lack(ed) that part). He might achieve something yet!

What matters more to me is that I like him, he isn't a spoiled brat, nor a stupid little boy, he is trained for kingship and believes himself to be a Targ...

Good councillors? Not a brat?

Hmm. He looks to me to have one councillor in Connington, who has kept himself going on hate and guilt. He's not a smooth political operator as far as we can tell from his last chapter, instead coming over with an army of claimants to westerosi titles he's bringing chaos and confusion. Not a great councillor and a man desperate not to make the same mistakes as before.

If he's a brat I suppose depends on how you define that. Knocking the game board over in a temper and getting Tyrion to pick up the pieces reminded me of Joffrey though.

We already know Varys has a remarkable talent for stealth and that there are many hidden passageways in the Red Keep, it is perfectly plausible that he was able to exfiltrate a baby without anyone noticing.

Tyrion points out to Illyrio just how many people knew about his 'secret' escape from Kings Landing in Tyrion II ADWD. Keeping a baby secret is even harder as it needs a bunch of people to keep it alive, plus of course that means that Varys just happens to have a ship of entirely trustworthy people sitting at the Quay on the off chance that the city might be sacked and he might need to smuggle a baby out, a ship which nobody never notices.

Of course the story might be true. It's just dodgy and requires a string of unlikely events.

[Vengeance]

I'm not sure why it's even in doubt, this is VARYS

[Vengeance]

If he's a brat I suppose depends on how you define that. Knocking the game board over in a temper and getting Tyrion to pick up the pieces reminded me of Joffrey though.

Or...the blood of the Dragon

[DExit]

Good councillors? Not a brat?

Hmm. He looks to me to have one councillor in Connington, who has kept himself going on hate and guilt. He's not a smooth political operator as far as we can tell from his last chapter, instead coming over with an army of claimants to westerosi titles he's bringing chaos and confusion. Not a great councillor and a man desperate not to make the same mistakes as before.

If he's a brat I suppose depends on how you define that. Knocking the game board over in a temper and getting Tyrion to pick up the pieces reminded me of Joffrey though.

Tyrion is rather... working on everyones nerves, by Brat I meant Joff in his ill moods just killing people with a crosbow.

JC has kept himself going on hatred, yes, but he obviously found a way to take one of the strongest castles in the world by guile. Homeless Harry is probably rather smart and the other high officers of the GC are high officers, which counts for something.

I'm not saying he is surrounded by the likes of Tywin Lannister or Stannis or Randyl Tarly but if you compare JC+GC with the likes of... Cersei, Janos Slynt at that time, and well, Cersei deserves to be mentioned twice, ehm Mace Tyrell but also: Catelyn, the Greatjon (+ other stark bannermen) and offcourse Theon.

All of the people above turned their cloak (theon) or influenced matters badly. Slynt listened to a thirteen year old boy on a matter of grave importance concerning Ned, Cersei is just mad, Mace is working in his own interest plus being sort of a lackwit. Catelyn urged her son to give the most dangerous man in the north, whose house was the ancient enemy of hers, a command of huge importance, freed the most valuable captive the starks had and failed to settle things around the karstark incident. The Greatjon only made the latter worse, is a drunkard and failed to slap his kings head when he was trowing away the kingdom for a girl.

And we were wondering why those boy-kings were falling like leaves. JC has a plan, and he'll stick to it!

[Real Heir of Bear Island]

Precisely. And we know that towards then end of his life, Rhaegar was coming to the realization that his father was unstable. Knowing that Aerys would most likely demand the presence of Elia and her children in KL, the plan would then be set in motion to ensure the life of Rhaegar's heir. No offense to Elia and Rhaenys, but they just weren't as important.

I like your first part, but not the last. It wasn't because they weren't important but rather because they were impossible to disguise. Babies change every day. One squeeling baby wrapped in a swaddle blanket looks very much like another. Disguising a grown woman and little girl is a bit more difficult.

[Suzanna Stormborn]

I like your first part, but not the last. It wasn't because they weren't important but rather because they were impossible to disguise. Babies change every day. One squeeling baby wrapped in a swaddle blanket looks very much like another. Disguising a grown woman and little girl is a bit more difficult.

yeah much easier to disguise a little baby. I wish more ppl were still around to tell what really happened during the usurping. I bet in WOW we get a VArys as a POV. He will put an end to some of the mindless ideas on this forum!

[Winter's Prince]

If you think about it Bran and Rickon did and are doing the same thing, so really its not that farfetch'd....however I don't think it will take 17 years for them to resurface.

I think the dedication of Jon Connington is enough proof that this Aegon is the real deal, Jon Connington would not betray his best friend and House Targaryen by raising a Blackfyre to the Iron Throne.

What makes this so interesting is that people will be skeptical about his legitimacy just like Arianne as well as you, me, and plenty others

Varys and Illyrio could have lied to Jon, they are both men of mystery, we have seen characters do this to others in this series time and again. And Bran and Rickon are a completely different story, they both have direwolves to prove their identity. Aegon doesn't have a dragon to confirm his, and I highly doubt he ever will.

[Vengeance]

Tyrion points out to Illyrio just how many people knew about his 'secret' escape from Kings Landing in Tyrion II ADWD. Keeping a baby secret is even harder as it needs a bunch of people to keep it alive, plus of course that means that Varys just happens to have a ship of entirely trustworthy people sitting at the Quay on the off chance that the city might be sacked and he might need to smuggle a baby out, a ship which nobody never notices.

Of course the story might be true. It's just dodgy and requires a string of unlikely events.

There is any number of scenarios that would allow it to work - it certainly wouldn't require a ship on standby, he could have simply smuggled him out of the keep and hid him with a trusted ally for weeks or months until a journey across the sea became feasible. A bunch of people? Tell that to any single mother!

No one would have been looking for him because as far as the city was concerned Gregor Clegane had dashed his head against a wall. Considering everything we've seen of Varys, his cunning, his deviousness and resourcefullness, I can't see why there'd be any difficulty believing he could manage something so relatively simple. Now I'm not certain he is real and I'm not arguing either way, the detractors have put forward some interesting ideas re: blackfyre descendant, but if it turns out he really is, I'd have no difficulty accepting it. The most important point to remember is that it doesn't really matter either way, what matters is that armed men believe he is who he says he is, and they support his claim. Perhaps Martin is just playing on historical precedents of pretenders who were able to achieve power not because of what their blood says about them, but because they could convince people who weren't gifted with the advent of DNA testing that they had a legitimate claim. Just as it was in medieval England, t's not about who has the best genetic claim to a previous king, it's about who can build support, who can raise armies, and who can win battles. Thus far 'Aegon' is proving adept at all three.