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Why does everyone think Aegon is fake v.2


Angalin

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My hunch is that Aegon is a fake. He really reminds me of Lambert Simnel, the real-life pretender to Henry VII. Simnel was a commoner boy who bore an uncanny resemblance to the 'Princes in the Tower' who were executed by the Richard III. He was adopted as a young child by a priest who styled himself as a 'kingmaker' and given the best possible upbringing, so that he was "a boy so learned, that, had he ruled, he would have as a learned man." The priest and a group of contemporaries then claimed he was the long lost Earl of Warwick and had a claim to the throne, even managing to raise a mercenary army thanks to his 'Aunt', the Duchess of Burgundy, who believed he was who he said he was or was willing to suspend disbelief. They tried to invade Yorkshire, couldn't win the support of the local nobles, and the rebellion was put down by the King. Because he was seen as a puppet, the King pardoned Lambert, who ended up working the rest of his days in the king's household. I can't help feeling Aegon's story will end in a similar way..

I think this is a very good analogy, since a good deal of characters and events seem to be inspired by or run parallel to historical events and persons. I enjoy Martin's little historical nods here and there. I personally like Aegon and want him to be real, but it seems a little too good to be true.

Just a couple points/observations I'd like to make

1. People don't like that Aegon showed up in the fifth book and can potentially be the true heir. There are still at least two more books to come. That is quite a lot of story left. Aegon can very well be legit and his story reconciled with our beloved major characters.

I could see this as possible as well, but only if the Iron Throne itself is a distraction to what is truly significant in the story. A lot of people on this forum are pretty convinced that Jon Snow is the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna, and the introduction of Rhaegar's firstborn son probably makes a lot of people wonder, "What about Jon?" I can accept the possibility that Aegon is the true heir to the Iron Throne, but, in my mind, this would make the question 'who will sit the Iron Throne' of secondary importance in the story. Aegon can end up inheriting the empire, but I can almost guarantee that he is not AA or TPTWP.

2. I however can't seem to reconcile Varys and Illyrios somewhat contradicting plans regarding Dany Viserys and Aegon. Did he want a place for all three of them? Were Dany and Viserys pawns? Or a sort of backup plan? There are so many contradicting lines like someone mentioned above Illyrio saying he didn't think Dany would last long among the dothraki. Though at some point he also said the plan was for them and the dothraki to meet up with the Golden Company and join their strength etc. Any explanation I've some across has been too convoluted. This is one mystery I'd like to see resolved.

You are right, this is confusing. I would assume the marriage pact between Viserys and Arianne was wrought to bring Dorne with its army over to the Targaryen cause, so I don't believe Viserys' death was planned by either. It's clear that their plan all along has been to seat Aegon in KL, but why not solidify his Targaryen claim by marrying him to Dany in the first place? Why not seal the pact with the Martells and invade Westeros with The Golden Company and the Dornish army? Maybe because Viserys was really too much of a jealous fool to trust in the word of his benefactors and allow his supposed nephew to be seated on the Iron Throne? I guess their intention of aligning with the Dothraki via Dany is sensible, since a Dothraki calvary would probably be very formidable, but it doesn't quite make sense if it means sacrificing Daenarys. There may be question as to Aegon's identity, but it seems like the plan should've been to marry him to Dany all along. With the unrest that broke out in Westeros after Robert's death and Joffrey's crowning, there was an ideal moment to attack a fractured realm and perhaps gain allies to rally for Aegon and Dany. So, in retrospect, their plans don't seem to make a terrible amount of sense. In truth, plans regarding Dany and Viserys seem very ill thought out; only Aegon seems to have had much consideration at all. Maybe he really did intend for both Targaryens to die, but again, I don't know why this would be the case.

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The death of Dany and Viseys does make sense. Think about it, everyone knows that Dany and Vis are/were full blooded Targs. With Aegon's appearance it would split the loyalists especially those who doubt his identity. You remove Dany and Vis from the picture and those loyalists even those who doubts should follow him.

The thing I find most interesting though is how Westeros Lords will respond to what amounts to a foreign invasion. Whether Aegon wants to admit it or not he is a foreign aggressor and if I was a Lord especially one that sided with Robert, you can bet that I would be doing everything to insure any holdings I gained from supporting Robert I would keep. Best way to do that would be opposing Aegon.

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The theory that seems most plausible to me is that Aegon is Illyrio's son, with Serra, since Illyrio is described as being young, blonde and handsome in the statue Tyrion sees of him, and since we're told multiple times that the Lyseni have similar features to the Targs. In his original plan, once Daenaerys or Viserys won back the throne, Illyrio could produce Aegon as a third head of the dragon and possibly marry him to Dany.

Since there were witnesses to Aegon's death as a baby, his claim is almost certain to be disputed, so by marrying him to a 100% legitimate Targ, this would satisfy his detractors and allow Illyrio to secretly start a dynasty ruling Westeros. He would bank on Dany/Vis choosing to embrace their 'brother' rather than starting a civil war, and since he's been their friend and protector, and we know dragons come in threes, it seems likely they would go for it.

To go back to the wars of the Roses, this is a bit like Henry VII strengthening his claim by marrying Elizabeth of York after he took the throne. In the event that Dany/Vis get killed, he could still produce Aegon, now the only possible Targ descendant, ally him to Dorne to help him raise an army, and hopefully keep the seven kingdoms, but this would be much more of a risk than simply marrying him to a Targaryen who has been brought up in public as a Targ, and more importantly, has actual dragons. Here, the real Targaryens take all the risk, and Aegon gets all the benefit. Everything we know about Illyrio suggests he's out for himself, and the only way I can square this with his actions towards the Targaryens, is that he sees them as the path to guaranteed power or a legacy for himself.

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I see Dany's betrothal to Drogo as a calculated, low-risk, high-reward gamble. Worst case scenario, Viserys and Daenerys both die in the Dothraki Sea, and no harm done. Best case scenario, they win the horde, Varys and Illyrio can have Viserys assassinated and frame someone else, and the more pliant and impressionable Daenerys can be introduced to her nephew.

Of course, the last thing they expected was that the Dragon's Eggs would hatch. Which brings up another question, I wonder how Varys feels about the Dragon's Eggs hatching...

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I see Dany's betrothal to Drogo as a calculated, low-risk, high-reward gamble. Worst case scenario, Viserys and Daenerys both die in the Dothraki Sea, and no harm done. Best case scenario, they win the horde, Varys and Illyrio can have Viserys assassinated and frame someone else, and the more pliant and impressionable Daenerys can be introduced to her nephew.

Of course, the last thing they expected was that the Dragon's Eggs would hatch. Which brings up another question, I wonder how Varys feels about the Dragon's Eggs hatching...

Illyrio told Tyrion that they did not expect Dany to survive among the Dothraki. I don't think he was lying. They did not expect her to come back, impressionable or not, to be introduced to Aegon.

As you say, they did not expect the dragons to hatch. And they did not expect Dany's rise to power. She is a power to be reckoned with, a danger to their plans for Aegon unless she can be persuaded to marry him. Aegon may have a better claim to the Iron Throne by birth, but Dany's claim is legitimated by dragons. That is a strong legitimation in the eyes of the public, and one that Aegon lacks - even if he were Rhaegar's son.

I don't think Varys feels strongly about her at the moment, or about the eggs. He still expects that he can bend her (and them) to his will. I think he spends his time contemplating present and future rather than dwelling on the past.

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Illyrio told Tyrion that they did not expect Dany to survive among the Dothraki. I don't think he was lying. They did not expect her to come back, impressionable or not, to be introduced to Aegon.

As you say, they did not expect the dragons to hatch. And they did not expect Dany's rise to power. She is a power to be reckoned with, a danger to their plans for Aegon unless she can be persuaded to marry him. Aegon may have a better claim to the Iron Throne by birth, but Dany's claim is legitimated by dragons. That is a strong legitimation in the eyes of the public, and one that Aegon lacks - even if he were Rhaegar's son.

I don't think Varys feels strongly about her at the moment, or about the eggs. He still expects that he can bend her (and them) to his will. I think he spends his time contemplating present and future rather than dwelling on the past.

I don't think Illyrio was lying either, but that doesn't mean he saw her death as inevitable, just likely and non-problematic. If they just wanted her and Viserys dead, why not just have them killed? Why go through the convoluted plan to marry Dany off? They certainly had the means to pull of a clandestine assassination, if that was their only goal.

Their actions indicate they saw Viserys and Dany as assets, albeit volatile ones, and rather than simply "waste" them, they figured there was a small chance they could make use of them if they could get lucky and convince the Dothraki to take up their cause. Varys and Illyrio likely thought the odds that this plan would work were small, but that there was no downside. Worst case scenario, Viserys and Daenerys perish in the Dothraki Sea. Also plausible is that they survive, but are taken halfway across Essos in the wrong direction and the Dothraki never work up the nerve to cross the "poison water," leaving them out of the plans for Aegon. But the potential upshot, if Dany somehow survives and convinces Drogo to cross the sea, is that they get 40,000 pre-trained cavalry units just in time to help Aegon begin his campaign.

What they obviously didn't account for was the unthinkable possibility that Dany could hatch the eggs.

As to Varys, I more meant because we've been lead to believe he has a deep rooted hatred or fear of magic. This might just be more deception on his part, but there's no clear motive for why he'd make this claim, and to a man who fears magic, Dragons would certainly be a troubling prospect.

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If Dany's return to westeros treatens their plans for Aegon and a marriage is unlikely, they could just switch sides, and support Dany over Aegon (unless the theory Ilirios son=Aegon is true).

I think they are just playing the Game of Thrones, and the Targs, true or false, are just their pieces.

They want the next king to be indebted to them.

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The death of Dany and Viseys does make sense. Think about it, everyone knows that Dany and Vis are/were full blooded Targs. With Aegon's appearance it would split the loyalists especially those who doubt his identity. You remove Dany and Vis from the picture and those loyalists even those who doubts should follow him.

The thing I find most interesting though is how Westeros Lords will respond to what amounts to a foreign invasion. Whether Aegon wants to admit it or not he is a foreign aggressor and if I was a Lord especially one that sided with Robert, you can bet that I would be doing everything to insure any holdings I gained from supporting Robert I would keep. Best way to do that would be opposing Aegon.

I agree on the death of Viserys, but, knowing the Targaryen history, marrying Aegon to Dany makes more sense than sacrificing her. Also, since Viserys was pretty young when all of this went down, it would've made even more sense to tell him they've saved Rhaegar's son (regardless of whether or not Aegon is legitimate), go through with the marriage pact with House Martell, and have Dorne and The Golden Company behind them. I agree that Illyrio and Varys may be playing the Targaryens as pawns, but even a pawn can win a game if well used. This is retrospect, though, and even Varys didn't know that the realm would become as fractured as it was, so maybe Dothraki screamers just seemed their best option at the time.

The theory that seems most plausible to me is that Aegon is Illyrio's son, with Serra, since Illyrio is described as being young, blonde and handsome in the statue Tyrion sees of him, and since we're told multiple times that the Lyseni have similar features to the Targs. In his original plan, once Daenaerys or Viserys won back the throne, Illyrio could produce Aegon as a third head of the dragon and possibly marry him to Dany.

Since there were witnesses to Aegon's death as a baby, his claim is almost certain to be disputed, so by marrying him to a 100% legitimate Targ, this would satisfy his detractors and allow Illyrio to secretly start a dynasty ruling Westeros. He would bank on Dany/Vis choosing to embrace their 'brother' rather than starting a civil war, and since he's been their friend and protector, and we know dragons come in threes, it seems likely they would go for it.

To go back to the wars of the Roses, this is a bit like Henry VII strengthening his claim by marrying Elizabeth of York after he took the throne. In the event that Dany/Vis get killed, he could still produce Aegon, now the only possible Targ descendant, ally him to Dorne to help him raise an army, and hopefully keep the seven kingdoms, but this would be much more of a risk than simply marrying him to a Targaryen who has been brought up in public as a Targ, and more importantly, has actual dragons. Here, the real Targaryens take all the risk, and Aegon gets all the benefit. Everything we know about Illyrio suggests he's out for himself, and the only way I can square this with his actions towards the Targaryens, is that he sees them as the path to guaranteed power or a legacy for himself.

I agree he's an opportunist, but I think there's a bit more to Illyrio. Assuming that Aegon is his son, and Illyrio and Varys cooked up this whole scheme to seat Illyrio's offspring on the Iron Throne, I would venture to say that Illyrio is at least in part motivated by his love for Serra (we know he was very fond of her). I think he feels this is a legacy he can gift her and their child with, and I don't think it's been without sacrifice to him. I think that a part of him regrets giving up his son and missing out on his life, which is why he regards Aegon with such sadness. I believe on Varys' part, he is indeed loyal to the realm whether or not they've produced the son of Rhaegar and true heir to the Seven Kingdoms, because Aegon has been raised to rule well. On the other hand, one could argue that Tommen could be raised to rule well, if removed from the influence of his queens, and if Kevan Lannister had not been murdered, so read into that what you will.

I see Dany's betrothal to Drogo as a calculated, low-risk, high-reward gamble. Worst case scenario, Viserys and Daenerys both die in the Dothraki Sea, and no harm done. Best case scenario, they win the horde, Varys and Illyrio can have Viserys assassinated and frame someone else, and the more pliant and impressionable Daenerys can be introduced to her nephew.

Of course, the last thing they expected was that the Dragon's Eggs would hatch. Which brings up another question, I wonder how Varys feels about the Dragon's Eggs hatching...

There was also the pact with Dorne, though. What I can't really figure out is why they couldn't get all these factors together to attack King's Landing. If they'd come to Westeros with the Dothraki, the Golden Company, and Dorne behind them during the chaos that succeeded Robert's death, they could have the kingdom now. Why send Viserys with Dany? Why not send him to Dorne to be married as his sister was marrying Drogo? Or why gamble with her at all, and why not just marry her to Aegon? These are the things I can't figure out.

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@#68gingerpunk The agreement with House Martell to marry Arianne to Viserys was drafted in Braavos, well before the beggar king and his sister arrived in Illyrio's keeping. Illyrio and Varys do not seem to have a clue about this agreement.

Ahhh... I guess I just made that assumption since it seemed they should, but this makes more sense. I still don't understand why they would sacrifice Dany, since it seems more logical to have planned to marry her to Aegon as soon as both were old enough. (Obviously, they did not sacrifice Dany, but they clearly expected her to die with the Dothraki.)

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Ahhh... I guess I just made that assumption since it seemed they should, but this makes more sense. I still don't understand why they would sacrifice Dany, since it seems more logical to have planned to marry her to Aegon as soon as both were old enough. (Obviously, they did not sacrifice Dany, but they clearly expected her to die with the Dothraki.)

No it doesn't. They desperately needed soldiers and the Dothraki had some 40,000 horsemen, probably more. Viserys would marry Arianne while the Dothraki attacked Westeros, meaning at least 70,000 men would be fighting Robert. If it had worked, they'd arrive around the time the War of the Five Kings started getting going and they'd have the strongest army out of anybody, probably even the Tyrells. Especially if they had picked up the Golden Company on the way to Westeros.

After the Targaryens had secured Westeros, Viserys and Dany would have kids. Eventually Viserys would declare those children his heirs and denounce whatever Dornishmen or Dothraki children he and Dany had made.

They never "expected her to die". That's silly and nonsensicle. They expected her to concinve Khal Drogo into sending his army to Westeros. And he would've had it not been for that small cut.

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No it doesn't. They desperately needed soldiers and the Dothraki had some 40,000 horsemen, probably more. Viserys would marry Arianne while the Dothraki attacked Westeros, meaning at least 70,000 men would be fighting Robert. If it had worked, they'd arrive around the time the War of the Five Kings started getting going and they'd have the strongest army out of anybody, probably even the Tyrells. Especially if they had picked up the Golden Company on the way to Westeros.

After the Targaryens had secured Westeros, Viserys and Dany would have kids. Eventually Viserys would declare those children his heirs and denounce whatever Dornishmen or Dothraki children he and Dany had made.

They never "expected her to die". That's silly and nonsensicle. They expected her to concinve Khal Drogo into sending his army to Westeros. And he would've had it not been for that small cut.

Illyrio says something to the effect of, "I didn't expect her to survive the horselords" in A Dance With Dragons. Also, this was clearly not their plan, as they had intended to seat Aegon on the Iron Throne, not Viserys. Viserys could've been used to rope in Dorne with his marriage pact, but Aegon was intended to be ruler. Knowing this, it'd make far more sense to marry Dany to him to solidify his claim. I see the value of the Dothraki, and I understand why that marriage was arranged, but, even if their plan had played out as they intended and Khal Drogo had lived, I don't believe Danaerys would have set him aside for Viserys. Illyrio states he didn't expect her to live, and clearly this sacrifice was worthwhile for him, but what he did not anticipate was Dany's relatively quick transformation from a weak, subjugated child into a strong, willful woman. It is clear that they see the value in Danaerys now that she's hatched three dragons and conquered Slaver's Bay, but Illyrio didn't see much value, beyond her beauty, in the girl that she had been before marrying Drogo. What I'm saying I do not understand is why they couldn't see the base value of having an exiled princess that is undisputedly Targaryen. Marrying her to Aegon shortly before his invasion with the Golden Company could only gain more support from Targaryen loyalists, and, while his blood is very much in question, hers is unquestionable.

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Marrying Dany to Aegon only makes sense because of the dragons. If it was not for that, it makes much more sense to marry each one to a diferent house, that way you get two different lords to back your claim.

One thing no one seems to have noticed is that Viserys was not intended to go with the Dothraki, only Dany. Illyrio wanted Viserys close to him, so he could control him. Viserys death(at least so early) was clearly not intended, they probably wanted to use him to gain support from other sources and create a diversion for Aegon, but Viserys insisted in go with Dany. He died, and then dragons came

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Marrying Dany to Aegon only makes sense because of the dragons. If it was not for that, it makes much more sense to marry each one to a diferent house, that way you get two different lords to back your claim.

One thing no one seems to have noticed is that Viserys was not intended to go with the Dothraki, only Dany. Illyrio wanted Viserys close to him, so he could control him. Viserys death(at least so early) was clearly not intended, they probably wanted to use him to gain support from other sources and create a diversion for Aegon, but Viserys insisted in go with Dany. He died, and then dragons came

I'm not so sure that's true. Illyrio didn't put up much of a fight when Viserys insisted on going. Knowing how petulant and impulsive he was, it could have just been reverse psychology.

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I guess a good reason for not killing Viserys/Dany themselves might be: while they live, they're the focus of all the Baratheon assassination attempts. They are the physical embodiment of the Targaryen threat, while Aegon gets to grow up in safety. But sending them off with the Dothraki, who are really, really not into water, keeps them out of the way of invading Westeros for a while at least, and whether they live or die, they can be of benefit to Ilyrio.

I don't think what we've seen of Illyrio or Varys suggests they are foolhardy enough to think of a plan as rigid as 'I will do X, and Y will happen', e.g. I'll send off Viserys with the Dothraki, and he will definitely die, and our plan hinges on this playing out exactly like that. Rather, they calculated the risk, and felt this had the best potential to play out well for Aegon than other options they had at the time. Killing off Viserys and Dany themselves, or marrying Dany to Aegon early on might have been good options with hindsight, but it would also have closed doors, or killed off a potential ally, or had dangerous repercussions (e.g. the Baratheons finding out much earlier about Aegon, while he's still young and relatively unprotected) and maybe they weren't willing to limit their options that much.

Similarly, I don't know if Illyrio knew that Dany's eggs would hatch, but I think it's a major coincidence that it was he who gave them to her. That's part of the reason I think it's a reach to believe Aegon is a Blackfyre - if Illyrio knew Aegon had the blood of a dragon, and that those eggs had any significance, he would have given them to him. He either doesn't think it would help Aegon to have some of the last dragons eggs in the world, or he didn't think that the dragons could hatch out of them, or both.

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This is plausible, but it has the same issues most other theories about what happened have--it's going to be virtually impossible to validate without some sort of Deus ex Machina. If this theory is correct, we're back to being left with nothing but Varys' word and Aegon's familial traits as evidence. We've heard of no Howland Reed type situation where its explicitly stated that someone else, someone ostensibly trustworthy, knows the truth. Following the Sack of Kings Landing, the trail of baby Aegon is known to just one man, a notoriously dishonest man to boot, before he supposedly shows up on a different continent in the care of a foreign Magister. Why wouldn't Aerys send along another known loyalist, such as Ser Willem Darry, as he did with his wife and remaining children? Why leave everything entirely to one man whose credibility is so shaky? Again, it's not an implausible theory, but it raises questions and there's no clear path within the narrative for it to be verified.

It can be argued that Aerys was smart enough to use the plan which was used by maestar luwin, when he sepearted bran and rickon.

To me it comes down to good story telling. The idea that after all this time Aegon is alive and the only sources of his legitimacy are a spymaster known to be untrustworthy and an exiled lord who was friends with Rhaegar. We don't really even know how much contact Jon had with Aegon before he was exiled. Considering his focus on Rhaegar I really doubt he ever gave Aegon more than a passing glance. And in the end it probably doesn't even really matter. Lords wanting more power will throw in with him regardless of whether he actually is who he says is, along as he can increase their power and wealth they won't care.

I don't think Jon C was so blindly in love with rhaegar that he would accept anyone as fake aegon, he would surely have noticed in Aegon if he was fake considering he was most near to rhaegar.

Maybe it's a long shot, but we know that Illyrio was very fond of his second wife, Serra. We also know Serra had blue eyes and "golden hair streaked with silver." We have not heard any mention of a child being born of the union between Serra and Illyrio, and nor would we, if recent events had made Illyrio decide to place his son, who has noticeable Targaryen features, upon the Iron Throne. Just an idea.

My question is why would Varys support Illirio if that was the case ?

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It can be argued that Aerys was smart enough to use the plan which was used by maestar luwin, when he sepearted bran and rickon.

All that we know for certain about Aerys was that he was:

  1. a paranoid
  2. a rapist
  3. a pyromaniac
  4. a sadist

We know that when word of Rhaegar's defeat at the Trident reached King's Landing that he sent Rhaella and Viseys to Dragonstone. He insisted on keeping Elia and her children as hostage to ensure the Dornishmen's loyalty, and he kept Jaime Lannister to ensure Casterly Rock's loyalty. He is never described as any kind of tactician or of being smart, simply as mad. When he allowed the Lannisters into King's Landing and they began to sack the city he ordered his Hand (a pyromancer) to set King's Landing ablaze, saying, "Let him be the king of ashes." Doesn't sound like he had any concern for his own safety, let alone for the Targaryen lineage.

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He is never described as any kind of tactician or of being smart, simply as mad.

The man was King for 20+ years, I think he was a little more intelligent than your giving him credit for. Also, Aerys was routinely described as having slowy descended into madess. He had apparently been a charming and handsome man when he assumed the throne.

Not to mention the fact that right before you said he wasn't a tactician or smart, you said this:

We know that when word of Rhaegar's defeat at the Trident reached King's Landing that he sent Rhaella and Viseys to Dragonstone. He insisted on keeping Elia and her children as hostage to ensure the Dornishmen's loyalty, and he kept Jaime Lannister to ensure Casterly Rock's loyalty.

Is this not a strategy to ensure Targaryan survival?

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One thing I think is worth noting is that as knowledgeable as Varys is there are several things happening that neither he nor Ilyrio could have foreseen. Littlefinger threw in a wrench by starting the war of 5 kings. The Whitewalkers came back possibly because of Mance possibly triggering the return of magic all together. This suggests to me that we did not get to see Ilyrio and Varys plan because the time table had to change all together. If you look at their options if the war had not started then we can probably come up with what their original plan was.

Several things which are entirely possible. Varys sent Ilyrio the real Aegon and Ilyrio replaced him with his son. Ilyrio knows Aegon is a blackfyre and doesn't care because Ilyrio is his 1 true friend and Aegon has been raised to be a good king. Ilyrio may have had completely separate plans for Viserys from Aegon or Dany. If Varys is in fact Doran Martells source in Kings landing then he likely would know of the marriage pact. He could easily have intended to replace Viserys with Aegon in that pact, obviously Dorne would have accepted. He could then have done anything with Viserys, even sold him to Robert, Robert would have paid a pretty penny, he def would have traded the dragon skulls.(Ilyrio is known to trade in Dragon bone) Or he could have betrothed Aegon to Margery since the Tyrells were Targ supporters and kept Viserys betrothed to Arriane. It is possible that Rhaegar had information regarding AAR, Varys has supposedly been exposed to magic, and Varys could easily have over heard convo's between Rhaegar and Elia. These three things suggest to me that Varys could have possibly foreseen the eggs hatching. Or perhaps just considered it an outside possibility. But remember that if Aemon knew of the PTWP then Varys likely does as well.

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The man was King for 20+ years, I think he was a little more intelligent than your giving him credit for. Also, Aerys was routinely described as having slowy descended into madess. He had apparently been a charming and handsome man when he assumed the throne.

Not to mention the fact that right before you said he wasn't a tactician or smart, you said this:

Is this not a strategy to ensure Targaryan survival?

It is a strategy to ensure his continued mad reign, not any of his progeny's chance at it.

So, why is setting fire to King's Landing an intelligent man's move?

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