Why does everyone think Aegon is fake v.2

[Usurper's Dog]

It is a strategy to ensure his continued mad reign, not any of his progeny's chance at it.

So, why is setting fire to King's Landing an intelligent man's move?

If you look through my post, never once did I say that setting fire to KL was an intelligent move. That would be complete nonsense (that's called a straw-man argument). My post was in specific reference to your characterization of Aerys. We have direct evidence from the book that Aerys was not always seen as "mad".

But please, tell me, how is Aerys' PLAN to spirit Viserys and his pregnant wife out of KL not a "tactic" or a "strategy" to ensure Targaryan survival? You are claiming that Aerys was completely and utterly devoid of any strategic planning like this throughout his entire reign.

It is a strategy to ensure his continued mad reign, not any of his progeny's chance at it.

Please tell me how sending his heir from danger and certain death is not an attempt to continue the Targaryan line. I don't see how sending them away is a benefit to maintaining his "mad reign".

[gingerpunk]

My question is why would Varys support Illirio if that was the case ?

Illyrio and Varys have always been close friends, and Varys has always claimed to work "for the good of the realm". I have a guess as to why Varys may support putting Illyrio's son on the Iron Throne; in fact, if Aegon is indeed Illyrio's son, I would guess that it was Varys who hatched the plan in the first place. Varys plays the game of thrones in the same manner as Illyrio and Littlefinger do. All of these characters concoct schemes and arrange events behind the scenes, and see to it that none of the consequences ever meet with them. None of them are particularly powerful, and Varys is a eunuch, which means that he will never beget offspring. I believe that Varys would be more than willing to seat a Targaryen pretender on the Iron Throne if said pretender is adequately instructed in the manner in which Varys feels the realm would run most smoothly. I don't believe that the identity of the pretender would make much difference to him at all. If Illyrio's wife had been descended from the Blackfyre line and his son displayed Targaryen features and is of an age with Rhaegar's murdered son, I believe Varys would be the first to note this, and the first to suggest the child be raised as Aegon. The one who would've needed convincing would be Illyrio himself, knowing that this ploy would one day place his child in danger and that he must give his son up in order to put the plan in action. Illyrio is, however, no stranger to the game and placing his own blood in the most prominent seat of power in Westeros is probably irresistable to him.

[TheKingwithTheSword]

Please. Give one real reason to thin Aegon is Illyrios son? This is a crackpot theory, at best. Why hide him if hes illyrios son and has a claim regardless. Why hide him at all when the only thing that can put him in power is throught right of conquest. Whats the point of the pole boat ? Dany and Viscerys stayed with Illyrio for a time and Robert knew and couldnot get to them. Same would of worked for fAegon. So please explain it again.

[Meddler]

Why hide him if hes illyrios son and has a claim regardless. Why hide him at all when the only thing that can put him in power is throught right of conquest.

Because he'll have some level of instant support in Westeros if people think he's Aegon. If he's just some random son of a foreign noble, no one is going to support him. Being Aegon also helps win the Golden Company. He has exactly zero military force as Illyrio's son. As Aegon, he has one of the best mercenary companies in Essos along with any portion of Westeros willing to believe he's the rightful heir.

Whats the point of the pole boat ?

To get to the Golden Company and the Dragons. How is this even a question either way? It doesn't matter whether he's legit or not, he still needs the Golden Company and Dany's Dragons.

Dany and Viscerys stayed with Illyrio for a time and Robert knew and couldnot get to them. Same would of worked for fAegon. So please explain it again.

This actually is a good question, but it's a much better question AGAINST Aegon's legitimacy than for it. If you are custody of an exiled heir, you want it to be known as soon as possible, so his identity can be verified more readily. If you wait 20 years, the evidence that can either validate or falsify your claim would vanish, which hurts you if your claim is true but helps you if your claim is false. If there really was a "Pisswater Prince," that could be easily verified if Aegon was known to be alive a year after he escaped King's Landing. Not so 20 years later. The father who sold the Pisswater Prince for a casket of Arbor Gold could be interrogated if this information came out immediately after the events happen, but 20 years later this man could well be dead. Guards or commoners known to be in the vicinity of the docks at the time the escape happened may have seen Varys acting suspiciously the day he rescued Aegon, but 20 years later, none of those guards are even in the Gold Cloaks anymore and it would be impossible to trace the movements of any commoners still inside the city walls from 20 years ago. The fact that Aegon's identity was hidden for so long, even though we know that Illyrio was able to protect two infamous Targaryen exiles, is evidence that Aegon may be a fraud, not that he might be legitimate.

[Meddler]

One thing that was sort of subtley mentioned in the Varys and Littlefinger thread that I'd been considering separately is whether Varys and Illyrio's scheming toward the Iron Throne could go back as far as the Defiance of Duskendale. Denys Darklyn's Myrish wife is the one largely held to blame for the Defiance by the people of Duskendale. Varys spent much of his early life in Myr, and it's where he first made a name for himself. Lady Darklyn's first name was also Serala, which on my second read instantly brought to mind the name Serra, Illyrio's second wife, and according to some theories Young Griff's true mother. We also know that the Defiance was the first big event that led to Aerys' descent into madness, and that Varys was hired almost immediately after Aerys was rescued.

There's a lot going on here that seems to fit into a neat little package.

What if the Defiance was somehow a plot to get Varys installed in Aerys' regime? Serala, who is connected to Varys and Illyrio (possibly through Serra), marrys Denys Darklyn and helps incite the Defiance. Varys plays a role in the intelligence that helps rescue Aerys, or perhaps as a prior act of "diplomacy" warns him of the danger before it happens. Then when Aerys is rescued, he hires Varys, who learns the secrets of the Red Keep while subtly, at least at first, instigating Aerys' paranoia. His endgame is to attempt to replace a child-heir (such as Aegon) with an agent of his own (possibly a Targaryen looking child of Illyrio and Serra). When the unthinkable happens, and Robert's Rebellion is successful, he adjusts on the fly, thus we have the exiled "Aegon".

Perhaps, if Robert's Rebellion hadn't been successful, Varys intended to switch baby Aegon with another child all along. It would only really be Elia he'd be concerned with deceiving. By this point Aerys is so far removed from his family life he never would have noticed. Meawhile, Rhaegar is off chasing "direwolf tail" and the child would have aged considerably since the last time Rhaegar had seen him, alleviating any concerns there. And as for Elia, it wouldn't have taken much to remove her from the picture entirely. Her health was quite poor, to the point where she was told if she tried to have another child, it would kill her. Having her killed off and making it look natural would not have been difficult. Rhaenys might have been a problem, but she was just a child, and any concern she might have raised could probably have been dismissed as related to her grief over the death of her mother.

This obviously involves a lot of speculation, but it would explain Varys' apparent loyalty to House Targaryen and Illyrio's treatment of Dany and Viserys as assets rather than rightful monarchs. Really, Varys came off as just as loyal and forthcoming to both Ned and Tyrion at times as he ever did to Aerys, but we know through his conversation with Illyrio in AGoT and his testimony against Tyrion in ASoS that this loyalty was more a matter of convenience than ethics in both cases.

Again, lot's of speculation here, very much granted, but it's a plausible thought that explains a lot of seemingly inconsistent behaviors and decisions on the part of Varys and Illyrio.

[MtnLion]

What do we know of the timeline? Illyrio had a child in his care at one time, thanks to Tyrion we know this. Viserys and Daenerys never had contact with the child, as far as we know. At age five we know that the child is in Jon Connington's care, and earlier still in Lemore's care. Before Viserys and Daenerys came to Illyrio's care the note of betrothal was drawn up in Braavos, and remained a secret from Daenerys and Viserys (and Varys and Illyrio) as far as we know. Illyrio gave the dragon eggs to Daenerys without a thought that they would hatch. We know that Illyrio and Varys had no plans for Viserys and Daenerys beyond the (well compensated) marriage to the horse lords. They did keep a spy (Jorah) close to them, though, and used psychology to keep Viserys with his sister and the horse lords. Varys was even willing to follow Robert's order to assassinate Daenerys, though whether on Ned's order or not, Jorah intervenes. Any plans to marry fAegon to Daenerys did not materialize before news of the eggs hatching reached Illyrio and Varys. We know that Varys foresaw the war that Westeros would descend into if Ned died in office, and that he desperately wanted to avoid that ending. Now, it seems that Varys wants to promote chaos in King's Landing and the ruler-ship by assassinating Devan who was doing some good. The Golden Company has been retained for quite some time, possibly by Illyrios' payments. That they wanted fAegon to gather Daenerys and head for Westeros was most likely a change in plan after all other efforts failed to get her to move west.

[TheKingwithTheSword]

He doesnt need to be a Targaryen to get the Golden Company and they dont have Danys Dragon. The Golden company would rise for a blackfyre easy. Dany needs to marry someone and it doesnt need to be her cousin. If hes succesful then it doesnt matter. All that you are going on about is circumstantial at best. They need military victories. and His name has fuck all to with that. You provide any proof, hints, reason for belief at all. You just assume its right and dont even try to justify it. GRRM always has some foreshadowing of what will happen. SHOW ME

[Meddler]

He doesnt need to be a Targaryen to get the Golden Company and they dont have Danys Dragon. The Golden company would rise for a blackfyre easy. Dany needs to marry someone and it doesnt need to be her cousin. If hes succesful then it doesnt matter. All that you are going on about is circumstantial at best. They need military victories. and His name has fuck all to with that. You provide any proof, hints, reason for belief at all. You just assume its right and dont even try to justify it. GRRM always has some foreshadowing of what will happen. SHOW ME

I'm sorry, I'm confused. Are you arguing against the entire notion that he's fake, or just against the notion that he's Serra's child?

If you look at my comments upthread, I'm not really in any particular camp on this issue. I feel like it's meant to be ambiguous. Varys says he's alive, Tywin said his head was smashed against a wall and he was killed. Varys could be lying, Tywin could have been mistaken. Anything past that on either side of the argument is almost entirely circumstantial or speculative. It's possible more evidence will turn up later, but I'm not even sure it will, or that it matters. What does matter is that part of Westeros is going to reject Aegon and part of Westeros is going to accept him. This is true whether he's real or fake, and is going to speak much more to Aegon's function as a character than whether he actually is real or fake.

The thing about Serra being his mother IS speculative, but the reason it gets discussed is because we need a motive for Varys and Illyrio to try and put this particular boy on the Iron Throne if he is fake. The only evidence for it is Illyrio's somewhat random nostalgia for Serra that came up while he was explaining his plans to Tyrion, the fact that she had somewhat Targaryen features, and that it's implied that the Blackfyres may have survived through the female line.

There are motive issues under the hypothesis that Aegon's genuine as well. Why do Varys and Illyrio care so much about an exiled heir? The notion that they're loyalists for the sake of being loyalists is far too simplistic for two of the greatest con-men in the history of the world. Illyrio said he wasn't doing it so he can be installed as a Great Lord or Master of Coin. His explanation to Tyrion was much more about sentimentality than pragmatics, and Tyrion was quite suspicious of it.

[alienarea]

I don't think Viserys would have bent the knee to Aegon, ever - he would have believed Aegon to be fake because acknowledging Aegon would have cost him everything. The Iron Throne.

In all the baby switch theories, has anyone considered that Aerys himself might have ordered the switch? We know that Aerys refused to let Elia and the children leave King's Landing, hostages to keep Dorne in line. So says Jaime Lannister, who was a Lannister hostage and never a trusted advisor. It did not matter if Elia and the children were at court as long as nobody knew that they left.

I can see Aerys arranging for Aegon's safety but not for Rhaenys or Elia's. After Rhaegar died, Elia of Dorne's only remaining value was as a hostage. Rhaenys was just a girl, and Targaryens did not value their daughters highly. Aegon was his heir. I can see Elia keeping quiet about the switch if it was ordered by Aerys, I can't see her keeping quiet about it otherwise.

Then it would also make sense that Aerys refused to send his grandchildren and their mother to safety. Because his heir Aegon was no longer in King's Landing, not in danger. It would even explain how Varys got involved with Aegon - Rhaegar didn't trust Varys but Aerys did, so Aerys might have entrusted the boy to Varys.

And Aerys ordered Aegon to be taken to the ToJ where Ned Stark could pick him up and place at the wall ....

[gingerpunk]

He doesnt need to be a Targaryen to get the Golden Company and they dont have Danys Dragon. The Golden company would rise for a blackfyre easy. Dany needs to marry someone and it doesnt need to be her cousin. If hes succesful then it doesnt matter. All that you are going on about is circumstantial at best. They need military victories. and His name has fuck all to with that. You provide any proof, hints, reason for belief at all. You just assume its right and dont even try to justify it. GRRM always has some foreshadowing of what will happen. SHOW ME

It was speculation on my part, driven by Illyrio's demeanor toward Aegon. When I was rereading ADwD recently, I paid special attention to chapters involving Young Griff to see if there is any means of deciphering exactly who he is, since he is most likely not Aegon Targaryen, heir of Rhaegar. There were a few small hints in the Tyrion chapter in which Tyrion notices Illyrio regarding the boy with sadness. In an earlier chapter, Illyrio is telling Tyrion how the Blackfyre male line died out, but there are still Blackfyre women and he tells his life story in that same chapter. We learn about Serra in the same chapter we learn that the Blackfyre line is still in existence, although no known males are around. This is my clue, make of it what you will.

[TheKingwithTheSword]

We do not know that the Blackfyre line still is in existence. All we know is that male lind ended on the stepstones. The female line could have died out the next day, month, year, decade.

[naik2902]

Aegon is fake. Elia had dark hair which is dominant trait.

[Meddler]

Aegon is fake. Elia had dark hair which is dominant trait.

I've seen this argued before, but even with a pretty basic understanding of genetics, it only works if you assume Elia didn't carry the recessive gene at all, which she may well have. Remember, the Martells and Targaryens had a previous marriage through the Martell male and Targaryen female line (Maron Martell to the first Daenerys Targaryen). Thus the recessive gene would have entered the bloodline there, if it had not already been present or introduced through another source, such as a Dayne. Assuming Elia carried the recessive gene, and knowing that Rhaegar did not carry the dominant gene (because his appearance presented with the recessive traits), there would be a 50:50 chance that the recessive trait would present in one of their children.

Obviously this doesn't mean Aegon is for real, but I don't really think his appearance is evidence for either side. The baby was said to have the classic Targaryen traits before it was killed, but they're hardly as unique as the reader is initially lead to believe. They're beautiful and striking, but a number of noble houses in Westeros have similar physical features, such as the Daynes and Velaryons, and they're quite common the free cities.

[MtnLion]

Obviously this doesn't mean Aegon is for real, but I don't really think his appearance is evidence for either side. The baby was said to have the classic Targaryen traits before it was killed, but they're hardly as unique as the reader is initially lead to believe. They're beautiful and striking, but a number of noble houses in Westeros have similar physical features, such as the Daynes and Velaryons, and they're quite common the free cities.

While it is not clear at this point one way or the other, this makes it particularly important to note that Ashara and Elia were close, that Elia was sickly and I believe more prone to stillbirth than Ashara, and that Barristan remembers a stillborn girl. It seems much more likely for a purple eyed white haired baby from Ashara with a Targaryen parent, than from Elia.

[MtnLion]

Please tell me how sending his heir from danger and certain death is not an attempt to continue the Targaryan line. I don't see how sending them away is a benefit to maintaining his "mad reign".

Not his heir, but Rhaegar's heir. He had already sent his own heir to Dragonstone. Why would Aerys be concerned for his son's heir that he had not had a chance to become close to? None.

[Meddler]

It seems much more likely for a purple eyed white haired baby from Ashara with a Targaryen parent, than from Elia.

Meaning genetically? That depends, and genetics might actually be a good argument against this notion of indeed it is something GRRM paid attention to and platinum hair and purple eyes are recessive traits. The father would also have to have the recessive gene to produce a child who had these features, which almost certainly rules out a Stark. Aerys would be just about the only viable candidate I've heard as the person who could have "dishonered" her to produce this child.

[MtnLion]

Meaning genetically? That depends, and genetics might actually be a good argument against this notion of indeed it is something GRRM paid attention to and platinum hair and purple eyes are recessive traits. The father would also have to have the recessive gene to produce a child who had these features, which almost certainly rules out a Stark. Aerys would be just about the only viable candidate I've heard as the person who could have "dishonered" her to produce this child.

Spot on. That is why I believe Barristan had misgivings about Aerys' decision to attend the Tourney at Harrenhal. We have two candidates at Harrenhal, Aerys and his son, Rhaegar. Everyone seems to have a positive recollection of Rhaegar, so he becomes less likely. I never subscribed to a Stark as Ashara's dishonorer, especially since the wording is precisely designed to imply that without ever truly saying it. The last sentence when Stark is mentioned, Barristan prefers that he be the first candidate, so it must not be about dishonor.

[Lady Winter Rose]

Meaning genetically? That depends, and genetics might actually be a good argument against this notion of indeed it is something GRRM paid attention to and platinum hair and purple eyes are recessive traits. The father would also have to have the recessive gene to produce a child who had these features, which almost certainly rules out a Stark. Aerys would be just about the only viable candidate I've heard as the person who could have "dishonered" her to produce this child.

Actually, it's proven that parents with certain eye color can have child with almost all eye color(s) combination. It's diffenerent with hair color, but only some rules of inheritance are dicovered.

[Meddler]

Spot on. That is why I believe Barristan had misgivings about Aerys' decision to attend the Tourney at Harrenhal. We have two candidates at Harrenhal, Aerys and his son, Rhaegar. Everyone seems to have a positive recollection of Rhaegar, so he becomes less likely. I never subscribed to a Stark as Ashara's dishonorer, especially since the wording is precisely designed to imply that without ever truly saying it. The last sentence when Stark is mentioned, Barristan prefers that he be the first candidate, so it must not be about dishonor.

My only problem with this theory is that I can't even really piece together a motive for it that makes sense, even just a speculative one. Ashara wasn't in King's Landing during the Sack, and if she did have a child by Aerys, he probably wouldn't have even known about it. Rhaegar might have known, but I'm not sure how much he'd care, and why would Varys and Illyrio be doing all this for some bastard son of Aerys? If they just want a puppet on the iron throne, they could take any Valyrian looking child, of which there are plenty in the Free Cities. Why would they have this loyalty to Aerys' bastard, to the point where they'd fake Ashara's death and have the child taken from Dorne? And why call him Aegon in the first place? Why put your resources in him rather than Dany and Viserys? They didn't think the latter had much chance of convincing the horselords to cross the poison water, let alone staying alive in the Dothraki Sea. Why put all your eggs in this fAegon basket when you have a much more suitable alternative already at hand?

I just can't come up with a motive that makes it fit.

Actually, it's proven that parents with certain eye color can have child with almost all eye color(s) combination. It's diffenerent with hair color, but only some rules of inheritance are dicovered.

Interesting. Yeah, I mean, I figured the model I was citing was overly-simplistic, but the point was just that we can't assume it was impossible for Elia to have a child with recessive features just because she had dominant features.

[gingerpunk]

I wonder if Aegon's legitimacy really matters at all. Whether or not he is Aegon Targaryen, son of Rhaegar Targaryen, he's been under the influence of Varys from his infancy and has been moulded into the kind of king Varys wants the realm to see. Wouldn't this make Aegon "The Mummer's Dragon", legit or no? It also begs the question, how much influence will Varys have over the reign of "Aegon", assuming his campaign is successful? While he may know of the eunuch's role in his survival and success, how indebted will he feel to Varys if he does take the Iron Throne, and will he be a puppet to the masters who shaped him into what he is? We know too little of him to do much else but speculate, but, from what I know of him, he doesn't seem as though he'd be a bad ruler at all. Varys, however, is not to be trusted, we all understand.

So, did Varys and company spirit baby Aegon out of King's Landing before The Mountain arrived to kill him? Was the child that Elia was raising her baby, or was it the baseborn son of Ashara Dayne who was raped by Aerys? Is Young Griff a random child that Varys found; a child who fits the description of Aegon Targaryen, and therefore can be used as a pawn in the game of thrones? Is he the son of Illyrio and his potentially Blackfyre wife, Serra? I think that when it comes down to it, even though we all really want to know the answers, they don't matter, because Aegon/YG, regardless of birth, has been raised to believe he is Rhaegar's son, and his schooling has indefinitely been overseen by Varys and Illyrio. YG is their power play in the game of thrones...

I would be inclined to believe that Littlefinger should be involved in this conspiracy, except it seems to me that if he were, he'd be arranging Sansa's marriage to Aegon instead of to Harry the Heir.