Why does everyone think Aegon is fake v.2

[AdXRoss]

I haven't re-read ADwD in a while and above posters will no doubt be better placed to comb the evidence, but the one thing that struck me, was the way in which this sudden heir with a greater claim to the throne than either Viserys or Danaerys suddenly turns up with very little foreshadowing in the previous four books. We'd heard bits and pieces about Jon Connington, but little to really sow suspicion that Rheagar's heir might actually be alive still, and as such, to me anyway, this feels like the narrative set-up for a slight, because of the way Aegon's appearance would seem to suddenly shift all of the goalposts quite dramatically. He may well be the real heir, and the way Tyrion uncovers his true identity seems to support this, but the point of his entry does make it feel like a feint on GRRM's part.

[bent branch]

I am in the camp that believes the evidence given so far is very ambiguous as to whether Aegon is Rhaegar's son or not. For me, the single most important factor as to whether Aegon is real or not is Varys' motives. We don't really know why Varys is doing what he is doing. I think if we find out what Varys is really up, then we'll know for sure if Aegon is Rhaegar's son. If we never learn Varys' motives, then we may never know if Aegon is real. tbh, I can think of only one possible scenario that it is really important whether he is real or not, and in that scenario Aegon would have to be real.

The one thing that some people claim that I disagree with is that Aegon was not foreshadowed. I admit in my first reading of the novels I didn't see any hint of a possible hidden heir. However, on my second read (after I already knew about Aegon), I was shocked at how early the foreshadowing of Aegon began. The hints started in AGOT. There were people who speculated that a character claiming to be Aegon would revealed before ADWD was released and I think this shows that the evidence was always there for those who could see it.

[mrlukeduke]

What do you guys think of the Aegon/Jon "twins" theory in relation to Aegon's ambiguous legitimacy?

[MtnLion]

Oh I'm not saying that we're not meant to puzzle over what the "mummer's dragon" means, I'm just saying we're not meant to have a definitive interpretation of it. There was no way one could have predicted that the Freys would murder Rob and sew Grey Wind's head onto his after Dany's vision in the House of the Undying, or that the Pale Mare would have been a disease, so I don't think we're meant to have a definitive answer on any of these prophecies before they're literally fulfilled. I certainly agree that with the information presented, Aegon is the most likely candidate, and if you put a gun to my head and asked whether I thought he was for real or he was fake, I'd probably say fake, but I don't buy the theory that he's Ashara's child through Aerys' rape and that he was switched with Elia's stillborn child before ever reaching King's Landing. It just seems to be adding a lot of unnecessary steps of explanation, and even more steps that don't seem to yield any kind of significant narrative payoff.

If we agree that the logical outcome for the false dragon is fAegon, then he can be some random child, and Varys lied in the Epilogue of DwD. Or, if Varys was telling truth as far as he knew it, that the baby was switched before he rescued it. The most logical choice if the latter, is that Ashara and Elia who would have been pregnant at nearly the same time frame, switched their children. That would make Elia's child a stillborn girl. Just saying it is as plausible either way.

[MtnLion]

The thing about prophecy is that its a difficult thing to work with, with the right twists and turns Quentyn Martell was the False Dragon (the Dragon has three heads was in his mind before he was burned) and Aegon is the Mummer's Dragon (in that Varys is a mummer).

"Mummer's dragon" is the wording that Daenerys puts to a vision, and when Jorah Mormont asks her what she means, she defines it. Please see her definition before you go changing the meaning. ;)

[Not-a-Weirwood-Tree]

I think most of us can agree that if Aegon isn't legit, then Varys doesn't know about it. He wouldn't go through the trouble of lieing to Kevan, he can't do anything with the infomation anyway, so why mislead him? Varys whole persona is a farce around the king's court, it probably felt good for him to finally say whats in his mind.

What do you guys think of the Aegon/Jon "twins" theory in relation to Aegon's ambiguous legitimacy?

It's too much of a stretch. At least in my opinion.

[Jon AS]

I think most of us can agree that if Aegon isn't legit, then Varys doesn't know about it. He wouldn't go through the trouble of lieing to Kevan, he can't do anything with the infomation anyway, so why mislead him? Varys whole persona is a farce around the king's court, it probably felt good for him to finally say whats in his mind.

Varys not knowing who the kid he's been scheming to put on the throne for almost two decades now really is would be rather silly.

If ever confronted by Kevan's ghost about the conversation, he'd point out that he never claimed that the Aegon he was talking about was really Rhaegar's son. He just supplied the name and some basic information and let Kevan draw his own conclusions. Which is something that Varys does throughout the series: mislead people by supplying them with limited information to nudge them in the direction he wants them to go. He very rarely* resorts to blatant lies to accomplish his goals.

As to why he would be lying, it's been pointed out either in this thread or the first, locked one (not to mention countless others since the book came out), that there are several good reasons to mislead Kevan. The most important one is probably explained by Littlefinger (himself no stranger to deception) in AFFC. He specifically talks to Sansa about maintaining a fake identity: to minimise the risk of discovery, it is best to always act like the person you're trying to disguise is in fact who you're claiming them to be, even if the only people present know the truth.

*I'm tempted to say never, but I'm sure somebody would find a counterexample immediately.

[MtnLion]

Varys not knowing who the kid he's been scheming to put on the throne for almost two decades now really is would be rather silly.

Not necessarily.

If ever confronted by Kevan's ghost about the conversation, he'd point out that he never claimed that the Aegon he was talking about was really Rhaegar's son. He just supplied the name and some basic information and let Kevan draw his own conclusions. Which is something that Varys does throughout the series: mislead people by supplying them with limited information to nudge them in the direction he wants them to go. He very rarely* resorts to blatant lies to accomplish his goals.

I agree that Varys does not lie, to avoid getting caught in a lie that could cost him his head. Someone has mentioned finding some lies, which I need to research, but I am not entirely certain that they are outright lies.

As to why he would be lying, it's been pointed out either in this thread or the first, locked one (not to mention countless others since the book came out), that there are several good reasons to mislead Kevan. The most important one is probably explained by Littlefinger (himself no stranger to deception) in AFFC. He specifically talks to Sansa about maintaining a fake identity: to minimise the risk of discovery, it is best to always act like the person you're trying to disguise is in fact who you're claiming them to be, even if the only people present know the truth.

*I'm tempted to say never, but I'm sure somebody would find a counterexample immediately.

However, there is no real reason that he would lie to Kevan, though he may for the benefit of his little birds. I just have this feeling that we are going to learn that fAegon is false for another reason entirely, later.

[sumant30]

If ever confronted by Kevan's ghost about the conversation, he'd point out that he never claimed that the Aegon he was talking about was really Rhaegar's son. He just supplied the name and some basic information and let Kevan draw his own conclusions. Which is something that Varys does throughout the series: mislead people by supplying them with limited information to nudge them in the direction he wants them to go. He very rarely* resorts to blatant lies to accomplish his goals.

I don't get one thing what is the point of lying to a dead man ?.

As to why he would be lying, it's been pointed out either in this thread or the first, locked one (not to mention countless others since the book came out), that there are several good reasons to mislead Kevan. The most important one is probably explained by Littlefinger (himself no stranger to deception) in AFFC. He specifically talks to Sansa about maintaining a fake identity: to minimise the risk of discovery, it is best to always act like the person you're trying to disguise is in fact who you're claiming them to be, even if the only people present know the truth.

The thing is LF tells this sansa because she is not a natural lier as Varys and LF are, thats why the whole process so that she can become one.

[Jon AS]

I don't get one thing what is the point of lying to a dead man ?.

That would be found in the second paragraph.;)

The thing is LF tells this sansa because she is not a natural lier as Varys and LF are, thats why the whole process so that she can become one.

Err yes, he tells her things that accomplished deceivers (like, say, Varys) already practice.

[Tini]

I just have this feeling that we are going to learn that fAegon is false for another reason entirely, later.

Maybe we'll only find out when it no longer matters - that is, after Aegon is dead. Varys spent two decades planning for Aegon to take the Iron Throne. Whatever his true intentions are, I think his plans are going to derail. Fatally.

When I read his explanation to Kevan, I thought that Aegon was about to disappoint him by not becoming the paragon king that Varys envisioned when setting up his education. But then, Aegon is still young and his education not complete; he might still develop in the intended direction as long as he receives proper instruction. Therefore Jon Connington was always a crucial part of Varys' plans - as a teacher, but even more as a brilliant political and military leader. Connington has the experience now that he lacked when he was Aerys' Hand, and that Aegon still lacks. For Varys, Conningons is both reliable and predictable, indispensable.

This cornerstone of Varys' plans is eroding. Connington's health is failing. He is running out of time, so he needs to speed his plans up. He also needs to keep it secret because of the stigma attached to Grayscale. Nobody knows, including Varys. This will make Connington more unpredictable, more willing to take risks. It will also leave Aegon without an experienced King's Hand. Since much of Varys' influence on Aegon seems to be indirect, through Connington, Aegon may choose to ignore Varys' advice.

[SicBoy]

In the epilogue Varys had no reason to lie because of the presence of his little birds. They have no tongues remember? :eek:

[gougef]

In the epilogue Varys had no reason to lie because of the presence of his little birds. They have no tongues remember? :eek:

But they can write, remember.

[Lady Winter Rose]

As to why he would be lying, it's been pointed out either in this thread or the first, locked one (not to mention countless others since the book came out), that there are several good reasons to mislead Kevan.

I think most important one was that they were not alone. There was countless spy children, he wanted to mantain their loyalty.

[otherbeef]

I think most important one was that they were not alone. There was countless spy children, he wanted to mantain their loyalty.

his little birds can still go tell the tyrells/lannisters of Varys treason and plots to put a Targ on the throne no? i don't see how Varys revealing Aegon to be a blackfyre or a common boy or illyrios son to kevan changes what the little birds do.

[aryagonnakill]

Varys not knowing who the kid he's been scheming to put on the throne for almost two decades now really is would be rather silly.

If ever confronted by Kevan's ghost about the conversation, he'd point out that he never claimed that the Aegon he was talking about was really Rhaegar's son. He just supplied the name and some basic information and let Kevan draw his own conclusions. Which is something that Varys does throughout the series: mislead people by supplying them with limited information to nudge them in the direction he wants them to go. He very rarely* resorts to blatant lies to accomplish his goals.

As to why he would be lying, it's been pointed out either in this thread or the first, locked one (not to mention countless others since the book came out), that there are several good reasons to mislead Kevan. The most important one is probably explained by Littlefinger (himself no stranger to deception) in AFFC. He specifically talks to Sansa about maintaining a fake identity: to minimise the risk of discovery, it is best to always act like the person you're trying to disguise is in fact who you're claiming them to be, even if the only people present know the truth.

*I'm tempted to say never, but I'm sure somebody would find a counterexample immediately.

In regards to Varys not knowing, one train of events I can come up with is that Varys smuggles Aegon out to Ilyrio as he states and then Ilyrio offs him and replaces him with his son. One of the very few things we have been told about Ilyrio is that he will sell out his best friend for the right price.

[Jon AS]

In regards to Varys not knowing, one train of events I can come up with is that Varys smuggles Aegon out to Ilyrio as he states and then Ilyrio offs him and replaces him with his son. One of the very few things we have been told about Ilyrio is that he will sell out his best friend for the right price.

We haven't been told anything about Illyrio directly except through the eyes of other people, who have their own biases (and none of them are particularly close to him). One of the things we do know about him is that he married his second wife for love despite the huge disadvantages that brought for him. He isn't all about profit. Varys is the only friend of Illyrio's that we have met, and there is absolutely no evidence that he sold him out.

There's also no indication that Varys is in any way concerned to preserve the Targaryens except for appearances' sake. His praise for Aegon as future king is all about how he has been brought up and educated, not who his parents were (that's the part he actually leaves out of his little speech to Kevan), so there's really no reason to keep that secret (leaving aside the unlikelyness of the supposed last minute rescue of the real Aegon).

[aryagonnakill]

We haven't been told anything about Illyrio directly except through the eyes of other people, who have their own biases (and none of them are particularly close to him). One of the things we do know about him is that he married his second wife for love despite the huge disadvantages that brought for him. He isn't all about profit. Varys is the only friend of Illyrio's that we have met, and there is absolutely no evidence that he sold him out.

There's also no indication that Varys is in any way concerned to preserve the Targaryens except for appearances' sake. His praise for Aegon as future king is all about how he has been brought up and educated, not who his parents were (that's the part he actually leaves out of his little speech to Kevan), so there's really no reason to keep that secret (leaving aside the unlikelyness of the supposed last minute rescue of the real Aegon).

You are technically right about the sources of info on Ilyrio, but Jorah seems to have a pretty good idea of who Ilyrio is and I know Jorah tells Dany that Ilyrio sold her but I can't remember if it was him who had the quote about Ilyrio selling out his closest friend. I think the fact that we actually have a character saying that and then the fact that we assume Ilyrio only has 1 friend could easily be foreshadowing. I could be completely wrong, but I was really only stating a possibility that lines up with other people's theories, I suspect Varys knows it's Ilyrio's son. Varys statement to Ned sums up my opinion about Varys. I believe Varys childhood makes him actually want a ruler who cares about the smallfolk, and that to him Aegon is the perfect candidate.

[Lady Owl]

Even if Varys knows Aegon to be a fake, he has been created to be Aegon now. He's been educated and taught to be Prince Aegon. If he is real or not I think Varys would still call him Aegon, as he is HIS Aegon, that he wants to put on the throne.

Have I just made any sense? I'm on very strong painkillers for an injured tailbone...

[Damon_Tor]

All scenarios that make Aegon the real deal involve last minute baby swapping and other conspiracies which only make sense if someone had prepared for/foreseen Rhaegar being killed at the Trident and King's Landing to fall.

IMHO this is the "The Man Who Shot Liberty Valance" moment of the series. If told the truth (Aegon is fake) the people still want to believe the legend (Aegon is the son of Rhaegar who survived) because they are most likely fed up with the game of thrones and the wars so they prefer to get back to Targaryen rule then to endure more of this conflict.

A real life base that triggered this storyline could have been the presumed princess Anastasia claiming to be a survivor of her family being executed.

IMO, it has more in common with Bonnie Prince Charlie. GRRM seems to draw more from Brittish history than that of the rest of Europe, if you notice.