R+L=J v.35

[FrozenFire3]

Err it's Ned Stark, Jon's 'uncle'. So apart from anything else the rules surronding kin slaying. Plus he's the most honourable guy in the 7 kingdoms, also as the sacking of KL was done by Lannister's Ned's got little to do with them. The KG would certainly have been aware of the Lannisters wait and see stance.

Again the key here is secrecy. The KG couldn't let anyone know, not even Jon's honourable uncle. The less people knew about the infant heir the more likely he was going to survive. It's the very same concern that compelled Ned to hide the truth even from his wife, breaking her trust and tormenting his conscience till the end.

[Bear Island Bruiser]

Again the key here is secrecy. The KG couldn't let anyone know, not even Jon's honourable uncle. The less people knew about the infant heir the more likely he was going to survive. It's the very same concern that compelled Ned to hide the truth even from his wife, breaking her trust and tormenting his conscience till the end.

Hmmm it's possible but it's questionable. At the end of the day if you accept R+L=J Ned is the King's Uncle. A man that's just gone to war for family. He's highly unlikely to kill the child himself and is fairly likely to want his own family, the only child of the sister he loved, safe. As, if you accept R+L=J, it proved to be.

Still I can see the idea behind it, no matter how unlikely Ned is to keep quiet or help out a dead man tells no tales.

[Bear Island Bruiser]

If R+L=J and the KG are upholding their oath then Jon is legitimate. If Jon is legitimate then R+L were married. The reference of old gods marriage is only used to support this notion (a precedent of the possibility) and it isn't the basis of the argument. The KG are the basis of the argument.

The key here is that Jon was born (you can only refute this if Ned cut baby out himself, which we have no indication of) and all the remaining KG were there - Viserys' was unprotected (by KG). I don't know what other conclusion you can draw. It requires stretching the story to say it was Aegon there (explaining the KG actions) and that is the only possibility that could refute all the other evidence.

A couple of big Ifs there. In terms of Aegon being there, yep the theory requires speculation and filling in the blanks, but so does any other idea including R+L=J. We know (if you accept Varys' story, which is of course is, as with any character not in POV, questionable) that at some point Aegon was smuggled out of KL. We just don't know when, by who and on who's orders. If Rhaegar or Elia had anything to do with it, relatively likely if it was before the sacking of KL, then they'd want to keep the kid in Westeros but somewhere safe. ToJ is a safe place. The KG being there and protecting him against anyone could be seen as proof of that theory and I'd say it's more likely they'd fight against Ned to protect him than his nephew. This doesn't even rule out R+=L=J (though I have my own personal, doubts (well maybe preferences would be better)).

Overall none of us will know the definitive answer until GRRM gives them to us. Even then he may do a big F you and not explain the whole thing. I mean the whole Hound maybe/might not be the Gravedigger thing is just left out there.

[J. Stargaryen]

That's 2 reference points fairly far apart (in distance at least) one of which is seen in a fever dream. The fact that MMD refers to the secrets of the bloody bed give hints to Lyanna dying in a bed of blood but Lyanna's bed could be bloody for any number of reasons.

I'll chuck this one into your speculations and assumptions pile shall I? :stunned:

So, you're challengeing the connection between bloody bed/bed of blood and childbirth on the basis that the metaphor traveled too great an in-universe distance? Did I get that right?

And then in this next part you appear to be exercising some sort of veto power, albeit imaginary, to dismiss textual evidence, because it supports a theory you don't like. For the record, I don't have an assumptions pile, and if I did, Lyanna/MMD/bloody bed, etc would most certainly not be a part of it. You discredit yourself by suggesting otherwise.

Not sure which part of the KG vows they'd be breaking here. In fact as far as I can tell none at all, and certainly not any law. The marriage, if there was one another one for your speculation pile, would be shaky at best in the eyes of the 7, the religion all the KG follow, and they're the KINGS Guard not the Crown Prince Guard. They're sworn to obey and not judge the King not the royal family. In fact as Rhaegar dies at the Trident before Aerys at no point is Rhaeger even the King apparent.

To obey, follow orders. Because if Rhaegar says Hey, I married Lyanna, so any offspring we produce will be legitimate. And one of the KG says Not so fast! then they are not obeying. Regarding the law comment, I believe it is illegal to ignore or refuse an order from the crown prince.

Also as Aerys is the Head of House Targarean it is his right and responsibility to choose the marriages of all his children, as King more so. So if Rhaegar had married Lyanna this is far the more treasonous act than the KG not accepting his polygamous marriage (again OK it was done by the Targs but not for a long time). It's legitmacy (again if it took place) is on shaky ground in the eyes of the King and religion.

It's still possible that it took place but it's a huge bit of speculation.

I don't really have anything to add to the existing refutations of this argument.

[FrozenFire3]

Hmmm it's possible but it's questionable. At the end of the day if you accept R+L=J Ned is the King's Uncle. A man that's just gone to war for family. He's highly unlikely to kill the child himself and is fairly likely to want his own family, the only child of the sister he loved, safe. As, if you accept R+L=J, it proved to be.

Still I can see the idea behind it, no matter how unlikely Ned is to keep quiet or help out a dead man tells no tales.

Exactly. Moreover, they couldn't entrust the safety of Jon to his discretion. And the discretion of hypothetical confidant(s), however trusted (Cat anyone?).

Let's not forget it took Ned's selfless sacrifice and a promise on a deathbed to protect Jon's identity.

[Bear Island Bruiser]

So, you're challengeing the connection between bloody bed/bed of blood and childbirth on the basis that the metaphor traveled too great an in-universe distance? Did I get that right?

And then in this next part you appear to be exercising some sort of veto power, albeit imaginary, to dismiss textual evidence, because it supports a theory you don't like. For the record, I don't have an assumptions pile, and if I did, Lyanna/MMD/bloody bed, etc would most certainly not be a part of it. You discredit yourself by suggesting otherwise.

Don't knock it at all. Just willing to accept there could be another explanation. Other quotes would point towards what you say but there could be other reasons why Lyanna is in a bed of blood. A sickness making her vomit blood, poisoned, an injury damage as a result of being raped senseless for weeks for Rhaegar, Ned sees a bed of blood because he recalls it in a fever dream and it's her death bed which in the fever gets realated as blood... Essentially what i'm saying is your drawing a conclusion that because the bed she's in is covered in blood it must mean that it was because she gave birth because MMD said she knew the secrets of the bloody bed. MMD says this to an unrelated character (well it's to Dany so possibly) at an unrelated event. This is speculation. With all that said I completely accept that it relating to a birth bed is a strong possibility.

To obey, follow orders. Because if Rhaegar says Hey, I married Lyanna, so any offspring we produce will be legitimate. And one of the KG says Not so fast! then they are not obeying.

Not at all because it's not Rhaegar's place to tell them such a thing and declare that any offspring wil be legitimate. He can say it all he wants and the KG may not but it's the King that will decide if that's right. As has been shown the King decides if any bastard is legitimate and even if there was a marriage (again speculation) it would be for the King to decide if this polygamous marriage was legit. Plus by telling them all this it would king of be the KGs duty to at least send a messenger to KL to tell Aerys all about it. After all again they're the KINGS guard not the Royal Family guard. Aerys is the person who will decide if the speculated marriage stands not Rhaegar if Aerys isn't around to rule upon it's kind of up to the KG as to how they'll interpret it.

Regarding the law comment, I believe it is illegal to ignore or refuse an order from the crown prince.

Believe or know? Is this you speculating again? or does it state that somewhere? What if the Crown Prince tells you to kill the king? or the Queen? He's a figure of authority no doubt and an order from him will convey a lot of authority but ultimately the power resides in the King or can countermand any order the Crown Prince will give.

[Ygrain]

Exactly. Moreover, they couldn't entrust the safety of Jon to his discretion. And the discretion of hypothetical confidant(s), however trusted (Cat anyone?).

Let's not forget it took Ned's selfless sacrifice and a promise on a deathbed to protect Jon's identity.

And fear left Lyanna's eyes when he promised - i.e., his own sister wasn't sure what he would or wouldn't do. Why should the KG be more sure of him?

[Ygrain]

Don't knock it at all. Just willing to accept there could be another explanation. Other quotes would point towards what you say but there could be other reasons why Lyanna is in a bed of blood. A sickness making her vomit blood, poisoned, an injury damage as a result of being raped senseless for weeks for Rhaegar, Ned sees a bed of blood because he recalls it in a fever dream and it's her death bed which in the fever gets realated as blood... Essentially what i'm saying is your drawing a conclusion that because the bed she's in is covered in blood it must mean that it was because she gave birth because MMD said she knew the secrets of the bloody bed. MMD says this to an unrelated character (well it's to Dany so possibly) at an unrelated event. This is speculation. With all that said I completely accept that it relating to a birth bed is a strong possibility.

/sigh/ Rhaegar had been gone for months, and if he had harmed Lyanna like that, I doubt very much that Ned would ever come up with that favourable comparison of Rhaegar not frequenting brothels (mind you, the point is not in Rhaegar being a womanizer or not, but in the fact that Ned draws a comparison between Lyanna's betrothed and the man who supposedly raped her, in favour of the rapist). "Bed of blood" is a phrase referring to childbirth and solely to childbirth, repeatedly.

[Bear Island Bruiser]

Exactly. Moreover, they couldn't entrust the safety of Jon to his discretion. And the discretion of hypothetical confidant(s), however trusted (Cat anyone?).

Let's not forget it took Ned's selfless sacrifice and a promise on a deathbed to protect Jon's identity.

I accept it's all a possibility but I still kind of think it's up for question. I'd have thought that the King's Guard there might at least have tried to talk Ned round and there is no sign of that. Ned becomes a powerful ally if he can be talked round. His complaint was with the father not the son, well assuming Lyanna can tell him that she wasn't kidnapped, and again it would be his nephew. I don't rule it out but I'd still rule it that this one hints that its more likely that it's Aegon they're protecting in the tower than Jon. Still I accept that it's not as clear cut as first thought.

[Black Wolf Smith]

IMO there were many reason that Ned never told Cat, but the biggest being to protect Cat and the children in case it ever came out.

There are just some people that don't want to believe this is the answer and won't execpt it no matter what.

[Bear Island Bruiser]

/sigh/ Rhaegar had been gone for months, and if he had harmed Lyanna like that, I doubt very much that Ned would ever come up with that favourable comparison of Rhaegar not frequenting brothels (mind you, the point is not in Rhaegar being a womanizer or not, but in the fact that Ned draws a comparison between Lyanna's betrothed and the man who supposedly raped her, in favour of the rapist). "Bed of blood" is a phrase referring to childbirth and solely to childbirth, repeatedly.

Right here goes, I mention the only Rhaeger raping her thing just as an alternative possibility. I note you don't have answers to another sickness or injury. How about this then Rhaegar rode off and said to the KG that remained 'I've had enough your turn lads'? and they all raped her. N.B. This is not to be taken as me proposing this as what happened.

Bed of blood can mean the birthing bed but let's just say for a minute that Ned did turn up and the bed sheets were stained with blood for some other reason. I mean really soaked through. Lyanna had been gored by a boar, run through and left ot die, fell from a horse, developed a sickness that made her vomit blood. Anything really other than childbirth that just left the bed soaked in blood. You don't think Ned is going to remember this detail?

[Ygrain]

Right here goes, I mention the only Rhaeger raping her thing just as an alternative possibility. I note you don't have answers to another sickness or injury. How about this then Rhaegar rode off and said to the KG that remained 'I've had enough your turn lads'? and they all raped her. N.B. This is not to be taken as me proposing this as what happened.

Bed of blood can mean the birthing bed but let's just say for a minute that Ned did turn up and the bed sheets were stained with blood for some other reason. I mean really soaked through. Lyanna had been gored by a boar, run through and left ot die, fell from a horse, developed a sickness that made her vomit blood. Anything really other than childbirth that just left the bed soaked in blood. You don't think Ned is going to remember this detail?

Please, don't waste our time with implausible alternatives, such as KG, whom Ned holds in great esteem raping Lyanna bloody. The same for poison - first, show me a poison that works like that, we have been told about several poisons popular in Westeros but none to the effect; second, who would have poisoned her and why; third, why would they have chosen such a stupid poison when natural poisonous substances are abundant and much less suspicious. Disease - the only examples I can think of are Ebola hemorhagic fever, which hasn't been described in the books, and the last stage of open tuberculosis, which, however, would probably take longer than a year to develop in a previously healthy individual. I'll have to check with someone more knowledgeable. Other than that, I really saw no reason why to adress your inventions.

[Lux in Tenebris]

Please, don't waste our time with implausible alternatives, such as KG, whom Ned holds in great esteem raping Lyanna bloody. The same for poison - first, show me a poison that works like that, we have been told about several poisons popular in Westeros but none to the effect; second, who would have poisoned her and why; third, why would they have chosen such a stupid poison when natural poisonous substances are abundant and much less suspicious. Disease - the only examples I can think of are Ebola hemorhagic fever, which hasn't been described in the books, and the last stage of open tuberculosis, which, however, would probably take longer than a year to develop in a previously healthy individual. I'll have to check with someone more knowledgeable. Other than that, I really saw no reason why to adress your inventions.

Absolutely. If this is actually the case Ned's feelings about Rhaegar and the KG would be starkly different.

heh, see what I did there?

[J. Stargaryen]

@Bear Island Bruiser,

I don't see any appeal in continuing this conversation, so I'm just gonna move on.

[Bear Island Bruiser]

Please, don't waste our time with implausible alternatives, such as KG, whom Ned holds in great esteem raping Lyanna bloody. The same for poison - first, show me a poison that works like that, we have been told about several poisons popular in Westeros but none to the effect; second, who would have poisoned her and why; third, why would they have chosen such a stupid poison when natural poisonous substances are abundant and much less suspicious. Disease - the only examples I can think of are Ebola hemorhagic fever, which hasn't been described in the books, and the last stage of open tuberculosis, which, however, would probably take longer than a year to develop in a previously healthy individual. I'll have to check with someone more knowledgeable. Other than that, I really saw no reason why to adress your inventions.

Really did you not read what I actually put saying I didn't believe it myself? Really, I mean come on at least read the post before answering.

[Bear Island Bruiser]

@Bear Island Bruiser,

I don't see any appeal in continuing this conversation, so I'm just gonna move on.

True, bit of a moot point anyway.

[Ygrain]

On open tuberculosis: possible to develop within the given timeframe, however, highly unlikely to kill within it. Also, symptoms are not consistent with lung disease - no mention of racking cough (cf. Lord Gyles).

Furthermore, if bed of blood does not refer to childbirth, then Ned never thinks of the cause of Lyanna's death, which is highly unlikely when you think of someone on their deathbed, the cause of death is self-evident and ever-present, and not reflecting on it while reminiscencing is unlikely, as well.

[Ygrain]

Really did you not read what I actually put saying I didn't believe it myself? Really, I mean come on at least read the post before answering.

I read it just fine, thank you. "there could be another explanation" - now, if you want to provide alternatives for playing devil's advocate, come up with something that makes sense.

[Twinslayer]

Really did you not read what I actually put saying I didn't believe it myself? Really, I mean come on at least read the post before answering.

Bruiser, while I tend to believe that Lyanna died during or as a result of childbirth, in fairness to you, you are right that there are alternatives that would work. Consider:

Robert dies in a room that smells of smoke, blood and death. Cause of death: gored by boar.

Lyanna dies in a room that smells of blood and roses. Cause of death: infection (she had a fever).

So we have two people dying in rooms that smell of blood, and we know for sure in the case of Robert that he was never pregnant.

Now, there are any number of ways a person could acquire and die from an infection. The only thing Ned does not ever think about is the cause of the infection.

On the bed of blood, aside from Robert's death, there are three references I can recall to blood and beds: flowering (Sansa), maiden's blood (Lady Dustin) and childbirth (Dany).

Bloody bed, as used by MMD, almost certainly refers to childbirth. Bed of blood, or beds of blood -- the other two phrases -- might refer to childbirth, they might refer to one of the other options, or they might refer to all three.

Finally, we know that giving a person the gift of mercy would produce a lot of blood. It would also explain why Lyanna's fear went away when Ned made his promise, if Ned's promise was to provide her with the gift of mercy.

As I said, I think Lyanna gave birth and died as a result, in part because I think the bed of blood and the cause of the infection are connected. But there are other possibilities that could work.

[Twinslayer]

What? Taking the baby to Essos is a hell of a lot easier than taking him to the ToJ. Essos is just a short boat ride away, while the ToJ would require traveling overland, potentially across a warzone, or traveling by water to Starfall and then going the rest of the way on land.

He has Illyrio's resources, and Illyrio is much closer than the ToJ is. If Varys did smuggle Aegon out (which I don't believe, but this is purely for hypothetical purposes), then it makes much more sense that he took him to him.

If it was Varys who smuggled Aegon out I get why he would have considered sending the boy to Essos. But the more clever course was to take him to Dorne.

Remember, Viserys was sent first to Dragonstone (not Essos), the ancient seat of the Targ's power presumably because it was thought Dragonstone was safer than Essos at that time. The logical place to send the other heir is to Dorne. This is because his mother was from Dorne and he could expect help from his mother's family, if all else failed. Do not forget, when Ned gets to the TOJ, he has 6 men with him, not an army, which suggests that Ned preferred not to invade Dorne if he did not have to. And, if you could get Aegon all the way to Doran before Robert's people caught up with you, the only way they could get Aegon would be to conquer Dorne, which is thought to be almost impossible.

Also, Rhaegar knew that if he lost on the Trident, King's Landing was not protected by an army, so Robert might take KL. But between KL and Dorne lie Highgarden and Storm's End. Highgarden is the seat of the Tyrells who are loyal to the crown and Mace has Storm's End under siege. So the road to Dorne is safe from enemy troops and sending the child to Dorne puts a huge loyalist army between Robert and Aegon. Sending him to Essos would make less sense at the time of the sack of KL because he could not be as well protected there.