Winning Northern independence

[The BlackBear]

Thirdly, in the long run that means that you'd need more population and you'd need a Eastern harbour as well. That means they should try to found a larger city on the Eastern Coast, maybe Deepwood Motte is suitable.

Barrowton probably, it's already a town. Most of the other places are just castles with no actual civilian residents. But to make it a town it needs people to trade with, no one sails that far because it takes forever to get there with little incentive.

Ha realise you said EAST now :uhoh:

[Free Northman]

The North was fine for 7700 years. Why would it need to be part of a continent spanning Empire now?

As I said before, does the Iron Throne offer them protection? Nope. Just in the last 100 years the Starks have had to go to war against Raymun Redbeard's invasion, Dagon Greyjoy's Ironborn invasion and the rebellion of Skagos. A number of Stark lords lost their lives in these wars with little assistance, if any, from the Iron Throne.

Does the Iron Throne give them free food in Winter? Nope. If they want food they have to buy it from Braavos or the South. Same as when they're independent.

Does the Iron Throne maintain the roads in the North? Nope. The only road in the North is the King's Road and it is little more than a muddy track.

And, as stated in one of the posts above, in exchange for this zero added value, the Iron Throne takes enough taxes in a single year to fund the construction of an ENTIRE WARFLEET of 50 ships by Lord Manderly.

Mulitply that by 10 years worth of taxes and you're looking at a fleet of 500 warships, or the equivalent, which could be new castles, better roads, more food etc.

The North has everything to gain from independence, and nothing much to lose. Fact is, they're pretty much left alone by the rest of the Seven Kingdoms in any case. By gaining independence, they'll just be left alone while still keeping all their taxes.

[GallowsKnight]

I'm not going crazy you guys mean West don't you? White Harbor is the eastern port.

I don't think trade is as popular along the West of the North. There's the threat of Ironborn and the long journey necessary for any stuff from the Free Cities. Even stuff from the The West and the Reach probably find it safer to go via Kingslanding and up to White Harbour (as part of a trade route stopping at many ports). And you can zig zag to Free Cities as well.

[DaeneryStormBorn]

The North was fine for 7700 years. Why would it need to be part of a continent spanning Empire now?

As I said before, does the Iron Throne offer them protection? Nope. Just in the last 100 years the Starks have had to go to war against Raymun Redbeard's invasion, Dagon Greyjoy's Ironborn invasion and the rebellion of Skagos. A number of Stark lords lost their lives in these wars with little assistance, if any, from the Iron Throne.

Does the Iron Throne give them free food in Winter? Nope. If they want food they have to buy it from Braavos or the South. Same as when they're independent.

Does the Iron Throne maintain the roads in the North? Nope. The only road in the North is the King's Road and it is little more than a muddy track.

And, as stated in one of the posts above, in exchange for this zero added value, the Iron Throne takes enough taxes in a single year to fund the construction of an ENTIRE WARFLEET of 50 ships by Lord Manderly.

Mulitply that by 10 years worth of taxes and you're looking at a fleet of 500 warships, or the equivalent, which could be new castles, better roads, more food etc.

The North has everything to gain from independence, and nothing much to lose. Fact is, they're pretty much left alone by the rest of the Seven Kingdoms in any case. By gaining independence, they'll just be left alone while still keeping all their taxes.

You are one of the few I follow in this forum, I always lookforward/enjoy reading your post :)

[Free Northman]

You are one of the few I follow in this forum, I always lookforward/enjoy reading your post :)

Why thank you ma'am.

[TheSmalljon]

Well for starters I didn't say Winterfell, I said white Harbour. But looking at the map now, my plan has been slightly altered, but not much. Sail up Blazewater Bay, then land to the South East of Barrowton and march on Moat Cailin. Bring Your army up from the South and go straight to White Harbour. And whilst the North can field that many men, it takes a considerable amount of time to summon them all, and they can't know for sure where you're going to hit. And remember that they will be suffering with food conditions as well. As long as you get the Neck open you can get a solid supply line. As long as you move swiftly enough you can get Moat Cailin and the majority of your men up pretty rapidly. Get White Harbour and you control the 'mouth' of the North.

Not to say it'd be easy by any means, just saying that is the weakest point of defence.

And the Iron Islands don't do alliances, they're too pig headed to. They'll do what they did in TWo5K fight everyone and everything they could.

Don't know how I got Winterfell out of WH.. but let's say you take White Harbour and open up the neck.(Not done without heavy casualties) What would your next move be ? Barrowton,Oldcastle, Widow's watch, Cerwyn or Hornwood castle ? (I'm thinking this with an ironborn alliance in mind so you don't get to sail up your blazewater bay or that other river that leads to Torrhen's Square :)

[The BlackBear]

Don't know how I got Winterfell out of WH.. but let's say you take White Harbour and open up the neck.(Not done without heavy casualties) What would your next move be ? Barrowton,Oldcastle, Widow's watch, Cerwyn or Hornwood castle ? (I'm thinking this with an ironborn alliance in mind so you don't get to sail up your blazewater bay or that other river that leads to Torrhen's Square :)

You just sit there, send out raiding parties in summer, sit tight in winter. Without the main port and main defensive line between North and South, plus no easy access to hit back at the South, you can force terms. They get no income from Trade (or very little) have no strength at sea which gives you free reign to raid the east coast, west too if the Ironborn aren't playing game. All the main castles on the East except the Dreadfort and Last Hearth are within easy reach of the sea, plus of course you can destroy every fishing village you can find. Supplies can come in from the South by ship for you.

[The Frost Wolf]

I would begin by rebuilding structures in the North. I would start by rebuilding the Moat, making the three towers into a fully functioning castle with a huge curtain wall. I would build forts along the Stony Shore to stave off invaders and as well as this a new navy at White Harbor. How do I pay for all this? I make a long-term deal with Braavos, lumber for cash and lots of lumber. The building of these castles would probably take up to 20 years, so I would wait a long time before declaring my new state, without doing anything else out of the ordinary meanwhile. But during this waiting period, I would marry daughters and sons into the Vale and the Westerlands. This would give me two allies on the East and Western seaboards of Westeros with great strengths too -- Lannister gold and Arryn knights.

Only once the new castles and forts were complete would I declare myself King in the North and no longer bound to the Iron Throne. Who would rebel against me? I have allies in the West, East and across the Narrow Sea. The armies of the Vale, West and North can easily come together to smash any opposing host and easily aid each other. As well as this, my castle at Moat Cailin can hold any army, allowing my allies to flank them. The Targaryens would be forced to accept me, since I would send them letters that I mean them no harm and would like to continue to have relations despite the change in Kings. They may be bitter about it, even not accepting what I'm offering but why should I care? I'm the King in the North, bitch.

[The BlackBear]

I would begin by rebuilding structures in the North. I would start by rebuilding the Moat, making the three towers into a fully functioning castle with a huge curtain wall. I would build forts along the Stony Shore to stave off invaders and as well as this a new navy at White Harbor. How do I pay for all this? I make a long-term deal with Braavos, lumber for cash and lots of lumber. The building of these castles would probably take up to 20 years, so I would wait a long time before declaring my new state, without doing anything else out of the ordinary meanwhile. But during this waiting period, I would marry daughters and sons into the Vale and the Westerlands. This would give me two allies on the East and Western seaboards of Westeros with great strengths too -- Lannister gold and Arryn knights.

Only once the new castles and forts were complete would I declare myself King in the North and no longer bound to the Iron Throne. Who would rebel against me? I have allies in the West, East and across the Narrow Sea. The armies of the Vale, West and North can easily come together to smash any opposing host and easily aid each other. As well as this, my castle at Moat Cailin can hold any army, allowing my allies to flank them. The Targaryens would be forced to accept me, since I would send them letters that I mean them no harm and would like to continue to have relations despite the change in Kings. They may be bitter about it, even not accepting what I'm offering but why should I care? I'm the King in the North, bitch.

Moat Cailin is in the middle of a bog, there's very little solid ground, certainly not enough to rebuild the castle. And saying that the Arryns and Lannisters won't fight against you is a bit uncertain. Frey fought Lannister despite there being marriages, between Lannister and Frey, and Frey and Crakehall (there are probably others) Swann fought for three different kings during the war of five kings. Also the Norths host takes a long time to assemble, so unless there was sufficient warning you wouldn't be able to get down South quick enough to defend West or East, and they'd know that when they chose whether to support you.

[Free Northman]

I can just imagine the reports that will reach the King in the Red Keep during a lengthy northern campaign.

"Your Grace, an army of 30,000 good men was fallen upon by wild Northmen, wargs and wild beasts 100 miles from Barrowton and slaughtered savagely."

"Your Grace, we have had no word from the army of 25,000 men under Lord Hightower, which was last seen somewhere between Hornwood and the Dreadfort. The last raven was received 3 months ago with the ravings of a madman, speaking of the trees walking and the very forests turning against them."

'Your Grace, the army of 20,000 men under Lord Tarly has been cut off from its supply lines somewhere between the Last Hearth and Karhold for half a year. Reports describe snowdrifts 10 feet deep and tales of the army consuming one another have reached our outpost at White Harbor"

Seriously, any northern campaign will be hell on earth for the southerners.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

I can just imagine the reports that will reach the King in the Red Keep during a lengthy northern campaign.

"Your Grace, an army of 30,000 good men was fallen upon by wild Northmen, wargs and wild beasts 100 miles from Barrowton and slaughtered savagely."

"Your Grace, we have had no word from the 25,000 men under Lord Hightower, which was last seen somewhere between Hornwood and the Dreadfort. The last raven was received 3 months ago with the ravings of a madman, speaking of the trees walking and the very forests turning against them."

'Your Grace, the 20,000 men under Lord Tarly has been cut off from its supply lines somewhere between the Last Hearth and Karhold for half a year. Reports describe snowdrifts 10 feet deep and tales of the army consuming one another have reached our outpost at White Harbor"

Seriously, any northern campaign will be hell on earth for the southerners.

"Your Grace, Ser Hightower and Ser Tarly are pissed off that their fathers are missing in action and told you to shove it. The Reach is now in rebellion too."

"Your Grace, the Vale has closed the Bloody Gate."

"Your Grace, Lord Lannister refuses to pay any more taxes."

etc. pp.

[Free Northman]

Of course, we've only talked about conventional warfare up to now. The tactical advantage of wargs and even a greenseer has not even been touched on.

Eagles spying on enemy troop movements and instant communications across great distances would be a huge advantage to the North.

[Zupoleon]

Under different circumstances, had Rob not have been forced to march south for his sisters, it would have been a totally different situation. The North declares, and simply fortifies Moat Cailin and the other strongholds / castles. With the size and wildness of the North, compounded with the impending winter, KL would have had little and less of a chance of doing anything to stop them from splitting form the Realm...

[Peasant Rebel Leader]

Barrowton probably, it's already a town. Most of the other places are just castles with no actual civilian residents. But to make it a town it needs people to trade with, no one sails that far because it takes forever to get there with little incentive.

Ha realise you said EAST now :uhoh:

Sorry, I of course meant the western coast, that's what you get when you write hastily ;) In the East, there's already White Harbour of course.

@Free Northman, Isn't your list also true for all the other Kingdoms in the South? Then what does the Iron Throne actually do? Or maybe there's something not explicitly written in the books ;)

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Sorry, I of course meant the western coast, that's what you get when you write hastily ;) In the East, there's already White Harbour of course.

@Free Northman, Isn't your list also true for all the other Kingdoms in the South? Then what does the Iron Throne actually do? Or maybe there's something not explicitly written in the books ;)

The Iron Throne does subjugate the other Kingdoms, first by threat of dragon, later by habit. That's all.

[Summer is Ending]

You need the Iron Islands on your side. There's no other way. The fleet in White Harbor might be able to hold off the Royal Navy, but you need the Iron Fleet to block the Redwynes from your West coast.

Make peace with any possible King Beyond the Wall. Marriage, Lordships whatever. More men to arm and use.

Diplomatically you need Braavos to help you. You can make longterm contracts for supplying them with lumber and they can bank roll you and help with their navy. They don't like Valyrians that might help.

Rebuild Moat Caitlin or reinforce it. Sure it held before but this is the rest of Westeros united against you.

Most Important don't broadcast your movements, just start paying less taxes, reinforce the Moat, make allies, train men and build ships. It's not until the Targaryans give any reason do you declare.

What exactly do you consider as broadcasting your movements if you think these are subtle preparations? Sending the throne little notes like

Dear Targbillies,

you suck.

p.s. we hate you and we're likely totally rebelling.

Of course, we've only talked about conventional warfare up to now. The tactical advantage of wargs and even a greenseer has not even been touched on.

Eagles spying on enemy troop movements and instant communications across great distances would be a huge advantage to the North.

None of this was in play in the time of the Targbillies except north of the Wall, are you suggesting making alliances with the wildlings?

[King Aerys the Just]

Unless Dany takes it back with the help of her dragons, the Iron Throne is finished.

There's just no way to hold together an empire almost twice the size of the Roman one at its peak, with nothing but medieval technology and a feudal culture. It's impossible.

The North is, in the longer run, just one out of seven problems.

[The Frost Wolf]

That's true, Wargs are probably the next best tactical device other than the Blackfish. Shown by Mance with his use of Orell/Varamyr. Hopefully the Northern Lords and Night's Watch will make use of Wargs in the future.

[mediterraneo]

I'd be use caution in taking for given a northern military superiority when on close numbers.

Crawfords and Umbers can know their terrain, but Lannister did too, and Robb was able to run around the Golden Tooth (thanks to the disperion of Lannister's forces, that were fighting on three fronts, and thanks to Edmure Tully that guarded his back as he was ordered to do, but that's another story). The point is, it depends on a lot of things, to obtain a tactical or strategical surprise.

Any strategy that is founded on the assumption of incapacity of technologically equal enemies is dumb, as it does not prepare you for the worst case. Moreover, FreeNorthman suggestion of using the complete destruction of separate invading armies needs - apart from the existence of seprate, small enough, dumbly led armies that let themselves to be completely destroyed (a quite rare occurrence) - a strategy based on concentration of force for a decisive battle, while the rest of his theory is based on a "harassing" idea based on a dispersion of force, to practice a guerrilla.

Moreover, I did not see here any concern about the northern alliances. We are supposing here that there is a total northern unity around the "indipendence" (from what? to substitute Winterfell for King's Landing?). We saw how much, say, Lord Bolton supported the indipendence idea with Robb.

How would have the Greyjoy reacted to the piece of news that nobody was going to punish them for a raid on Bear Island or Thorren Square?

And why in the world would 200.000 men be needed to subdue the North?

Robb marched with less than 20.000 men, leaving maybe half as much at home. We see that the north - if coesive - is able to munster those numbers in meaningful time. This means that organize a host more than twice that number is not required, and probably out of the capacity of Westeros for extended oversea operations.

A possible scenario of attack, in summer or at the break of the spring if "indipendece" was declared in winter, would be the southern army desembarking around White Harbour, looking to site the city to force the northern host to give battle. The northern forces would need (having already been mobilized) to decide if using the Moat Cailin force for the relieve or not. Any strenght left there is to be discounted from the avaible host, while the "stupid southrons" are preparing their position aruond the major port. Can the city resist, alone, a siege? It is possible, and that would be a serious step back for any invader. But let's say that the city, expecially if the attack is at the start of spring, can only resist a limited amount of time. This leaves the norther leader with the choice of attacking the siegers with, say, 15.000 to 25.000 men: Robb's forces, minus the garrison of Moat Cailin, adding a 10.000 men out of prudence.

I'm talking here of a crown's expeditionary force numbering 35.000 to 50.000 men which is actively waiting and preparing for a high intensity attack coming from the general direction of the White Knife, and can count with decisive naval superiority. Maybe they even have some 1000 men avaible for a tactical invasion just north of the incoming attackers once the hosts are in contact. It is not an impossible feat, to defeat a prepared force composed of twice your numbers of technologically equal enemies, but we have to be serious on the odds. And of the possible costs of a possible defeat for both the southern general and the Stark that would be needed to lead the northern host.

The alternative would be to leave the vassals to their destiny. To count on WHite Harbour's walls to win the campaign. That would have a quite dangerous cost on the eastern coast vassals: Oldcastle, Ramsgate, Widow's Wail and Karhold could fall without further fighting too, if they knew that the Stark in WInterfell is not defending them.

Then we should really take a look at the navigability of the northern rivers. The southern warships, galleys in their majority, are able of navigating a lot of rivers, due to their construction. A galley is a very light ship, with a very low depth. Wikipedia refers of a galley of Charles I of Sicily, in 1275, having a depth of 2,08 meters (2 yards and some, less than two and a half) This puts Castle Cerwin, Hornwood, the Dreadfort and even Last Heart in direct menace. At the very least, they would need to retire their men from the host to defend their own lands, if the Stark in WInterfell does not protect his vassals.

So, probably we are speaking of a large pitched battle in the first weeks of the campaign, between 15-25.000 attacking northmen and 35-50.000 prepared crown's men, around White Harbour, as a decisive battle.

Here we can factor in errors, arrogances, stupidities very often cited as the cause of desasters in feudal armies's battles. But we have two feudal armies fighting each other, so they are equally vulnerable to these.

My conclusion? The best hope for a northern leader to defeat the Crown's reaction to his declaration of "indipendence" is that there is no such reaction, because the Crown has other problems of its own, and had to renounce to military operations in the North.

Remember that northern forces were at least equally matched by the forces of just one Great House, while they were counting with House Tully as allies, and the Lannister were fighting a Baratheon and a Tyrrell force in the same civil war.

Cheers to everybody.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

There are several points to be considered:

1. Army sizes

Any single medieval army is limited to ~20,000 men, since a larger number couldn't be sustained reliably. And that is assuming a reasonably dense populated area and reasonably short supply routes. It's likely to be much lower in a hostile North. Let's say 15,000. That's an equal fight for Manderley on his own...

2. Supply lines

Any supplies for the invading armies (I'm assuming at least four independent ones) would have to pass through either Moat Cailin and a single causeway through the territory of House Reed for hundreds of miles, through thousands of miles of Wolfswood if they come by ship to the poor Western coast, or though the Bite and 50 Manderley warships and across Manderley lands. None of these passages is feasible. Each of these routes will take a bloody toll, if the supply caravans are able to reach the armies at all!

3. Northern Castles to take

Even the poor castles on the western coast needed thousands of men, several months and the main strength in the South to take. A defended White Harbour or Winterfell would be in a fair fight against an army of at least 50,000. (3:1 advantage for the besieging force to starve, 10:1 to storm) and would need to be starved out. See: supply lines.

4. Winter

Any southron army still in the field during winter is simply gone. Any southron garrison in a Northern castle is extremely vulnerable during winter and won't get any reinforcements.

5. Northern indepence

No Southron Lord or King will ever get the loyalty of the Northmen, not by force. If there are no Starks left, the Northmen will flock to the Boltons, the Dustins or the Rhyswells and the war will carry on.