Winning Northern independence

[The BlackBear]

There seems to be little point improving the roads that much, the second you have even the slightest dusting of snow, it won't be much different, just use your bear paws and sleds and you'll be fine.

[Free Northman]

I think the show tried to convey some of Martin's thoughts on the matter when they had Cersei declare to Joffrey in Season 1 that the North is "too large and too wild" to be conquered and held by any external force without Dragons.

This was in response to Joffrey's idea to go and conquer the North because of their defiant attitude.

The sentence is quite carefully constructed, if I recall correctly. The "and held" part was probably added to cater for the Ironborn's brief conquest of the North while Robb's army was away. Clearly, they would not hold it for long, as becomes clear by the time of Dance.

I'm pretty sure the "external force" words were in there, which was to make reference to the need to have internal allies in the form of the Boltons later in the series.

[The Frosted King]

The region is fairly well knit with only the Boltons being a liability. during the 300 year reign only the Iron Born raiding, Skagosi rebellion, and Wilding incursions have really troubled the Lords of Winterfell. Besides that the north has been relatively peaceful.

If Torhenn had went back up North after Kneeling to Aegon and poured all his efforts into creating a stronger North through the building up of the west so tat the population would increase, focus on creating better roads, and began a military buildup for the day when the dragons would be no more then after the Blackfyre rebellion the ruling Stark in Winterfell could have declared independence.

The north isn't well knit.

The fact that some parts of the region can possibly be under attack and the other parts have no idea is a clear example of how isolated and remote certain parts of it are.

The south is wellknit.

Connected by commerce, culture, etc.

The North won't be strong enough to repel the south until it can support a vast economy that rivals the south.

The fact that the entire north can be economically superceded by a region like the Vale/Riverlands, etc is crazy, considering the difference in sizes.

The north needs to take the instituitions that are foundations of the northmen experience, and monetize them, to foster an economic explosion/expansion around them.

What are the foundations of the north?

The wall, Weirwoods and wildlings.

StrongArm Tower would monetize the martial aspects of the wall and dealing with wildlings, while the weirwoods can be exploited to foster a northern equivalent for knighthood.

Have a weirwood grove planted due north of Winterfell, and bi-annually hold tournaments there, inviting all the south to come.

Make sure the StrongArm Tower canidates are top class so when they win, fame spreads.

Reward them with abandoned holdfasts, and tier three recruits from the tower.

When the peasantry of the south learns that via the strength of arms, men can become petty nobility, the flight north would be drastic.

Foster and support the growth of this faux-noble class, and over time, they augment your numbers significantly.

Seek to have the gift returned from the wall, and raise a new lord to holding it. Preferably a second son Stark with a daughter of an Umber/Karstark.

With the newly minted petty nobility from the weirwood tournaments being their vassals.

Roads improve the trade capabilities, and foster travel. Imagine how many men Robb could've taken south if the north had roads at least superficially similar to the roads the valyrians set down.

Could've been perhaps 25k to 30k rather than a measely 20k.

[The BlackBear]

What the hell is this strongarm tower thing?

I'm very confused how you think this will generate money. Tournaments cost money, the prize sums are paid by the guy organising them. And then why would Southrons come? They go to Tournaments to compete against other knights. They'd have to travel hundreds of miles to somewhere that, at least to them, isn't particularly appealing, to compete against men who aren't knights.

The North don't bother with Tournaments because even in summer you're preparing and stockpiling for winter, there isn't the surplus to have useless mouths running around trying to become nobility.

I don't think the North care about knighthood, if you can fight well you're a good warrior and respected. Making there some knightly equivalent wouldn't make a scrap of difference.

[Peasant Rebel Leader]

Didn't we have a succesfull naval invasion by Stannis in the books already? After all, he did sail his fleet up there with nobody knowing where he was going.

[The BlackBear]

Didn't we have a succesfull naval invasion by Stannis in the books already? After all, he did sail his fleet up there with nobody knowing where he was going.

Well he landed at Eastwatch, then marched along the Northside of the Wall. The Eastwatch has a port, and he was welcomed.

[Scipio Africanus]

The sentence is quite carefully constructed, if I recall correctly. The "and held" part was probably added to cater for the Ironborn's brief conquest of the North while Robb's army was away. Clearly, they would not hold it for long, as becomes clear by the time of Dance.

If you dig through the texts Tywin indirectly has a similar notion. He thought that the northmen would get fed up with Ironborn and (later) Wildlings (although he is considering if Mance Rayder will be an ally) and beg the crown for assistance, prompting him to produce either a child from the union between Sansa and Tyrion, or (more likely he's thinking on this, as he doesn't take Tyrion seriously at all) send troops to bolster the Bolton regime and drive out all foreign invaders. At any rate he seems confident the entire North wouldn't be conquered by one part or another, and now that he got Robb murdered it could be handled at his leisure.

Of course, Tywin is equally ill informed as Balon and probably Stan are about Nothern politics and sentiments, but that only increases the chances of the North regaining independance in the long run fortunately.

@ Free Northman

I didn't need to reply to this thread before because you already made the logical arguements, but I will say this, if Dany comes to Westeros and her dragons are still with her, I think the North will definitely loose their independance. There's no effective anti-dragon defense. Sure, men have slain dragons (haven't read much about it in ASOFAI though) and Dorne wasn't conquered despite that the Targs had dragons, but considering that the North has only one major settlement (which would be an easy target) I think Dany could bully the North into submissing by threatening to torch White Harbor, Winterfell and whatever else she wanted. The North will have suffered (either small or big) a zombie apocolypse by then, and with much Nothern leadership gone...may work for Dany.

[Free Northman]

If you dig through the texts Tywin indirectly has a similar notion. He thought that the northmen would get fed up with Ironborn and (later) Wildlings (although he is considering if Mance Rayder will be an ally) and beg the crown for assistance, prompting him to produce either a child from the union between Sansa and Tyrion, or (more likely he's thinking on this, as he doesn't take Tyrion seriously at all) send troops to bolster the Bolton regime and drive out all foreign invaders. At any rate he seems confident the entire North wouldn't be conquered by one part or another, and now that he got Robb murdered it could be handled at his leisure.

Of course, Tywin is equally ill informed as Balon and probably Stan are about Nothern politics and sentiments, but that only increases the chances of the North regaining independance in the long run fortunately.

@ Free Northman

I didn't need to reply to this thread before because you already made the logical arguements, but I will say this, if Dany comes to Westeros and her dragons are still with her, I think the North will definitely loose their independance. There's no effective anti-dragon defense. Sure, men have slain dragons (haven't read much about it in ASOFAI though) and Dorne wasn't conquered despite that the Targs had dragons, but considering that the North has only one major settlement (which would be an easy target) I think Dany could bully the North into submissing by threatening to torch White Harbor, Winterfell and whatever else she wanted. The North will have suffered (either small or big) a zombie apocolypse by then, and with much Nothern leadership gone...may work for Dany.

Dragons are obviously a non-conventional strategic advantage that tips the balance completely in favour of the side with the Dragons.

It is therefore only fair at this point that I see Daenerys's dragon hand with four of a warg kind, and raise it with a greenseer flush.

[Scipio Africanus]

It is therefore only fair at this point that I see Daenerys's dragon hand with four of a warg kind, and raise it with a greenseer flush.

If that were true why didn't Torghen Stark get himself a warg and a greenseer? ;)

In all seriousness, as there ever been reports/rumours of dragons being succesfully warged and turned on their masters?

[Free Northman]

If that were true why didn't Torghen Stark get himself a warg and a greenseer? ;)

In all seriousness, as there ever been reports/rumours of dragons being succesfully warged and turned on their masters?

Because wargs have been unknown south of the Wall since long before Torhenn's time. Warging isn't synomymous with House Stark. At least not in the last few thousand years, it would seem.

The current generation are an anomaly, clearly the result of supernatural meddling of some kind.

Bran is told he can warg into any beast that walks, crawls, swims or flies. And that includes humans. Dragons have the intellect of a family dog, more or less.

[Scipio Africanus]

Because wargs have been unknown south of the Wall since long before Torhenn's time. Warging isn't synomymous with House Stark. At least not in the last few thousand years, it would seem.

The current generation are an anomaly, clearly the result of supernatural meddling of some kind.

Probably because of the same reason dragons have "returned" (they were never truely gone), and the Others returning, the pyromancers' spells working better and Red Mel's power increases while at the Wall. As people say magic is returning to Westeros.

I'm not saying warging a dragon isn't possible but it's curious there are no stories told of anything like that, north or south of the Wall. If we believe Westeros history their civilizations are thousends of years old. Surely something like that has happened before.

[Free Northman]

Probably because of the same reason dragons have "returned" (they were never truely gone), and the Others returning, the pyromancers' spells working better and Red Mel's power increases while at the Wall. As people say magic is returning to Westeros.

I'm not saying warging a dragon isn't possible but it's curious there are no stories told of anything like that, north or south of the Wall. If we believe Westeros history their civilizations are thousends of years old. Surely something like that has happened before.

They hardly remember wargs, who have only been gone for a 1000 years or so, and still active North of the Wall to the modern day. How would they remember stories of dragons being warged, if Dragons have been extinct in Westeros since the Long Night, 8000 years ago?

As for the Valyrians. They kept their dragons away from Westeros. For some reason...

[Free Northman]

In fact, I would propose a Valyrian dragonlord exploring the distant Lands beyond the Wall as a possible source for the Hardhome cataclysm 600 years ago. The first encounter between a living warg and a dragon, which ended with the Dragon going mad and incinirating the place before self destructing.

Now, if it was a greenseer doing the warging, very different story, I reckon.

[kkae]

Winning Northern independence would require taking care of your enemies inside your own borders not just outside.

[The Red Pope]

Dragons are obviously a non-conventional strategic advantage that tips the balance completely in favour of the side with the Dragons.

It is therefore only fair at this point that I see Daenerys's dragon hand with four of a warg kind, and raise it with a greenseer flush.

Well, the Dornishmen kept themselves free through gerilla warfare. Dragons make an army invinsible in open battle but are close to useless against hidden foes. The North is almost ideal for such a strategy with it's deep woods, bogs and vastness but it doesn't seem to be part of the nothern fighting tradition. If they employed a scorshed earth and hit and run tactic as the Russians did against all invadors it would be quite effective.

[Frey Pie]

Didnt some dragon get weaker or something the further North it went? Or am i completely mis-remembering? In any case no region could hold out against Dany and her dragons IMO, and its foolish to try

[Budj]

I do think the fade out of old god powers in the North in conjunction with Dragons is the only reason the North was ever 'conquered' - this is why there may be something to Rickard Stark making a power play. The only reason the Stark's initially bent the knee was dragons.

[The Monkey]

I think the North would struggle to survive as well. But Scotland did against the English, they lost a hell of a lot of battles, but they always beat the English back in the end. Russia, is more like the North in terms of climate, and it and the residents, butchered Napoleon, and Hitler.

The question is IF the South can bring it's numbers to bear, they'd have to land them, or ride them through the moat, the first is difficult, finding safe landing on an unfamiliar shore, with deep hulled boats. And you'd have to get them off the boats before any force is arrayed against you. And no matter how big the Redwyne fleet is, you can't get all that many men in the boats in one go. If you take the Moat though there's a serious fighting chance.

The difference is that the Russians could raise armies that matched or outnumbered their foes. In WWII, at its peak there were about 3.5 million German troops against 6 million Soviets. When Napoleon invaded, he only had a small numeral advantage (500.000-600.000 French and allies against 400.000-500.000 Russians). So while Russia's climate may be similar to ASoIaF's North, it wasn't nearly as outnumbered as the North would be in the event of a Southern invasion.

[Septon Meribald]

Just a point to make about an invasion of the North. Aegon and the Golden Company sailed about the same distance as a southern fleet would need to and managed to spread themselves over the entirety of the Stormlands with only about half of their number accounted for so far. That was a force of 10,000 men. The idea that a fleet would transport a force three times as large, or even twice as large, without being at least as scattered is wishful thinking at best. And unless they achieve the same level of surprise as Aegon did you can expect a Northern response much larger and more cohesive than that of the Stormlands.

[Septon Meribald]

The difference is that the Russians could raise armies that matched or outnumbered their foes. In WWII, at its peak there were about 3.5 million German troops against 6 million Soviets. When Napoleon invaded, he only had a small numeral advantage (500.000-600.000 French and allies against 400.000-500.000 Russians). So while Russia's climate may be similar to ASoIaF's North, it wasn't nearly as outnumbered as the North would be in the event of a Southern invasion.

The south may be able to raise 100,000 men, but there's no possible way for them to bring a force that large to the North without it starving.