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NFL 2012 Week 14/15 The Unfrozen Tundra


Howdyphillip

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That is awesome. I was actually going to argue earlier that Caldwell has to represent an upgrade over Cameron, simply because nobody knows what a Caldwell offense looks like; Peyton was the OC forever, and then last year he had Painter.

Also, Kal's only-40-%-of-first-rounders-pan-out thing is the reason the trade for RG3 was good for the Redskins. People who say it was a bad deal are overvaluing the picks a little bit (and I agree with IG that 1st rounders are worth way more now, but that's because they're cheap lottery tickets, not because the players are more likely to work out).

BUT, the other dude upthread is vastly overstating RG3. If he wins two Super Bowls with the Redskins, he will have outkicked his coverage- this has not been a good organization from a management standpoint for a long time, and the odds of him getting hurt make me way more reluctant to say they'll contend for 10 years than I would if he had Cam's body, for example.

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BUT, the other dude upthread is vastly overstating RG3. If he wins two Super Bowls with the Redskins, he will have outkicked his coverage- this has not been a good organization from a management standpoint for a long time, and the odds of him getting hurt make me way more reluctant to say they'll contend for 10 years than I would if he had Cam's body, for example.

In the wake of this injury I got to thinking about the nature of injuries at the QB position.

The Bad News; First thing I realized is that all the elite guys who've been in the game awhile have missed at least an entire season due to injury (i.e.: Brady, Brees, Manning). And those are the three best guys in the game about avoiding contact. Rodgers hasn't, yet, but again he's only been a starter for 5 years. And you look at the '04 guys and Roethlisberger can't stay healthy (and he's huge) and Rivers is having this weird lack of arm strength which I don't know if it's injury related or what. Only Eli Manning has been pretty injury free but that dude is built like Gumby. There's seemingly no way to play quarterback in the NFL for 10 years and not get injured sooner or later.

The Good News: At the same time, I can think of only two guys in the current era who has had their careers derailed by injury: Dante Culpepper and Carson Palmer. Those guys were never the same after getting injured. Everyone else though came back and played at the same high level as before. There are very few injuries you can't bounce back from in this era of improved sports medicine and rehab. And I'd argue Culpepper and Palmer's resulting issues were more mental than physical (though if you look at Culpepper's numbers, he was in freefall pre-injury once Moss was traded so who knows if he was just a one year fluke anyway.)

Everyone else who could play was a good bet to get to 10 years at a high level. Even McNabb who ran a ton early in his career and tapered it off as he matured. From there guys declined at varying rate due to a combination of the cumulative toll of hits and injuries and aging and overall ability to mentally compensate for declining physical abilities.

I get the notion that Griffin is a greater injury risk as a franchise guy because of how much he does with legs. I'd argue he won't be always be this way. This modified Baylor offense is a perfect bridge to get highly adept QB play out of him before he's highly adept at reading NFL defenses. But as a pure passer, he has an elite skillset between his arm, quickness of release, work ethic, intelligence and pocket sense. If injuries eventually sap him of his speed, like what happened to Edgerrin James, I still think he has all the attributes to be a franchise guy. Keep in mind they didn't trade all those picks just to get Michael Vick.

All that said the one area to be concerned in the modern game is concussions. He probably can't have a Steve Young type career in the 2010s because the league is far for cognizant and restrictive when it comes to players playing after a concussion. You look at guys like Vick and Austin Collie who've suffered enough concussions that it seems to making increasingly concussion prone. That's the one big concern lingering that could derail a career. Not to say the myriad of other possible injuries aren't a concern for a QB who runs the football often and hasn't yet seemed to learned in the same way Aaron Rodgers mostly has to avoid the biggest hits, but just saying that while many can end a season, few loom as career derailers.

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You also cherry picked the worst QB pick since JaMarcus and a great late-round RB pick in hindsight. Cherry picking Morris is especially disingenuous.
Not particularly. That's the problem - RBs are shitty investments early for the most part. Alfred Morris is the rule rather than the exception. What, you think the likes of Arian Foster are uncommon? DeMarco Murray?

Weeden is performing at an adequate level for a rookie QB. If you like, you can replace him with basically any of the 20-30QB range. This year the Redskins' choice would have been pick RG3 or pick...I guess Tannehill. Does the trade with Tannehill, Richardson and great CB for RG3, Morris and Jenkins feel much better to you?

And honestly Weeden isn't that bad. He's not historically amazing like the top 3 rookies are this season, but all of them are historically amazing. Put it this way: all three are within striking distance of breaking Peyton's rookie TD record. Luck has already won more games as a rookie than anyone - and he's followed by Wilson and RG3 very closely. If you're saying that this is the norm, well, you're smoking crack. If you think that you should expect to be able to get Wilson regularly (instead of, say, Nick Foles or Kirk Cousins or Ryan Mallet or Kaepernick), you're even more high. That's the thing - RG3 isn't just a good starting QB. As far as I can tell he's one of the best prospects to come out in the last 10 years. That's worth 3 first round picks. Even if his shelf life is only 3 years, that's probably worth it. Think most organizations wouldn't give up 3 first round picks to have a top 10 and potentially top 5 QB for three years?

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Let's assume for a second that those 2 first round picks would be pro-bowl caliber players. This is a totally ludicrous assumption; first round picks have about a 40% success rate for simply staying in the NFL, much less great picks. But let's assume that is the case.

How long will it take to make up for those two pro bowl players? Let's take Cleveland and assume Richardson is a pro bowl player and one of the corners is. And you get, say, Weeden instead.

Would anyone out there trade Jenkins, Morris and RG3 for Richardson, Weeden and the CB on the Browns? Anyone at all?

To me, this notion seems ludicrous. The only way you could get two first round picks worth remotely what RG3 has shown so far is to get a great left tackle and a great nose tackle. And even then, chances are you wouldn't see a return on investment until you got yourself...a good QB.

So over pay for over the hill veterans, and expect to win a superbowl, same ole redskins, different qb. when is the last time overpaying in free agency has netted a team a superbowl?

RG3 is dynamic and will get them into the playoffs for years, probably not this year but that is neither here nor there.

what does morris or jenks have to do with this, this RG3 only, Trich Weeds and 2 more picks for RG3 is deal i would not make. the draft slots used to select both Weeds and Trich would have been involved, thats why they are incuded in this.

I'm still not sold that RG3 is the best QB in this draft class, so i dont make the deal at all, for Luck i still dont make it, but closer.

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Who says you need to overpay in FA? You just need to hit on later round picks.

Also, this year overpaying in FA might get Denver to the Super Bowl. It helped the pats in 2007 quite a bit. It helped the saints in 2009 - drew Brees was a FA.

And it doesn't matter at all if rg3 is the best qb in this class or no- who cares? You only care about whether or not he was worth the picks.

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Patriots are dismantling the Texans.

And Houston is starting to look like an Atlanta style pretender. We saw the same thing against GB. This formerly great defense can't seem to even mildly slow down the elite passing offenses (or... Chad Henne) which is just a death knell to title hopes in 2012 unless you have one of your own.

Show me something Houston.

Also, this game is really making FO look sharp. Thought Houston would have a bit of fire. Nope. The 49er/pats game should be a hell of a lot better.

I think so. SF seems like a different type of animal on defense than Houston.

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Jesus, are people really arguing over whether RG3 is worth the picks? If you think a guy is a franchise QB, you get him. If you think a guy is a once-in-a-generation talent at franchise QB, you make the deal. The Ravens are the only team I can think of in the last fifteen years or so who managed to be consistently relevant without a franchise QB.

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I'm also starting to think that offense- adjusted stats are fairly bad when it's against bad offenses. Both Chicago and Houston have great rated defenses and both have had really easy schedules. And both struggle against good teams.

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Jesus, are people really arguing over whether RG3 is worth the picks? If you think a guy is a franchise QB, you get him. If you think a guy is a once-in-a-generation talent at franchise QB, you make the deal. The Ravens are the only team I can think of in the last fifteen years or so who managed to be consistently relevant without a franchise QB.

And all that took is 2 first ballot hall of famers on defense two different generations of very good multiple-pro-bowl appearances type guys.

As hard as it is to acquire a franchise QB, it's even harder to try to win a Superbowl without one.

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I don't know if the Aqib Talib thing will ultimately work out for the Pats, but I do like how much his presence seems to have settled down the secondary and given Belichick enough confidence in their coverage to send more blitzes, especially these awesome Mayo delay blitzes.

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I've been sadly amused by the befuddled expressions of Wade Phillips during this game and the Packers one. Saw that quite a bit while he was in Dallas. He can fix your defense with a new system but don't ask him to make adjustments on the fly.

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Terrifying headline for Mack: Caldwell will get to match wits with Peyton

Now we can finally find out who contributed more to the Colts success all those years.

The true offensive genius.

So over pay for over the hill veterans, and expect to win a superbowl, same ole redskins, different qb. when is the last time overpaying in free agency has netted a team a superbowl?

RG3 is dynamic and will get them into the playoffs for years, probably not this year but that is neither here nor there.

what does morris or jenks have to do with this, this RG3 only, Trich Weeds and 2 more picks for RG3 is deal i would not make. the draft slots used to select both Weeds and Trich would have been involved, thats why they are incuded in this.

I'm still not sold that RG3 is the best QB in this draft class, so i dont make the deal at all, for Luck i still dont make it, but closer.

The Redskins aren't going to overpay in FA. They can't. No cap-space.

Also, this game is really making FO look sharp. Thought Houston would have a bit of fire. Nope. The 49er/pats game should be a hell of a lot better.

I'm just saying, I kinda mentioned this would happen.

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