Tywin's plan in AGoT - nonsense or brilliance?

[danm_999]

It wasn't about Tyrion, in fact he blames Tyrion for letting himself being taken by a woman. It was the Lannister name that mattered.

Yup. When Tyrion strolls alive and unharmed into his camp, his reaction is basically "oh, there you are."

Tyrion was not the cause, he was the pretext.

[kingofashes]

It was more like

Tywin - "about time you showed up. I've called the banners, where have you been?"

Tyrion "uhhh I was kidnapped... remember? the whole reason you are going to war just now?"

Tywin "..."

Tyrion - "ehh I was taken by Catelyn Tully and almost died in the Vale bu-" Tywin cuts him off

Tywin - "It's just like that time you married the whore. Do you ever think at all you disgusting little person. To think my wife died to birth the likes of you. I wish you were dead I did not go to war for you I went to war otherwise people will think us weak. I had too. I just wish Cat wasn't stupid enough to set you free"

Tyrion - "Well, glad to be back!"

[SirPeter]

But why the Riverlands ? He could as well kill Robert Baretheon for the crossroad inn being part of his kingdom. He is a lion who attacks the first sheep from the herd he can find. The Riverlands have nothing to do with the capture.

[Hear Us Roar]

Tywin did not anticipate Jaime would injure Ned otherwise Ned, being a northman, would ride out to meet Clegane himself. He would then be captured and traded for Tyrion and the war would be over.

[Hear Us Roar]

But why the Riverlands ? He could as well kill Robert Baretheon for the crossroad inn being part of his kingdom. He is a lion who attacks the first sheep from the herd he can find. The Riverlands have nothing to do with the capture.

He did not want Robert dead, his wife is his daughter. He attacked the riverlands because it was Catelyn's home and would force her to capitulate once her family and castle were captured.

[Harald Hard-Ruler]

"They have insulted me, insulted! That cannot go unpunished!"

Tywin Lannister is mental. Insults to his pride are his berserk button, he takes extreme measures and gambles his houses survival on slimmest chances if he feels insulted.

Examples are the Tarbecks holding his relatives hostage, his stepmom, Reynes of Castamere, insulting Elia and Oberyn with Tyrion instead of Jaime, insulting Hoster Tully samewise, killing Elia, Rhaenys and Aegon the way he did and Tysha. Starting the war in the Riverlands are just the tip of the iceberg.

Exactly.

I have a bit of a pet theory, no way to really prove it one way or another. But I feel that part of the reason Tywin had his "beasts" pillage the Riverlands is because of a grudge he had against Hoster Tully.

When Jaime joined the Kingsguard, marriage plans with Lysa Tully fell through. In order to fill the void Tywin offered his younger son (and heir at this point) Tyrion to wed Lysa, Hoster rebuffed him saying that Lysa required a "full" man. I don't think Tywin is one to let a slight like that slide.

Tywin isn't the calculating genius that many people credit him as, he's an insecure man that freaks out and reacts almost instinctively when he feels provoked.

[SirPeter]

Why should that force her to anything ? It's a not well planed plan even to the standards of the Tully words "Family, duty, honor". The very reasons why capitulation works prevents it in the first place. Her son is more important family than her father.

He attacks them at the begining because Cath tricks him in the target of her travel. But come on, the simple knowledge about the (false) travel plans of a person do not lead to war in any case.

For the plan of forced surrender to work, he has to be very sure Cath would do it and Cath would still be in caption of the prisoner at the time being. And it's a long term failure, even if it works. You have a unconquerable north with a ruling family seeking for revenge. Great.

[The Red Hand]

Why should that force her to anything ? It's a not well planed plan even to the standards of the Tully words "Family, duty, honor". The very reasons why capitulation works prevents it in the first place. Her son is more important family than her father.

He attacks them at the begining because Cath tricks him in the target of her travel. But come on, the simple knowledge about the (false) travel plans of a person do not lead to war in any case.

For the plan of forced surrender to work, he has to be very sure Cath would do it and Cath would still be in caption of the prisoner at the time being. And it's a long term failure, even if it works. You have a unconquerable north with a ruling family seeking for revenge. Great.

Catelyn Stark abducts Tyrion in broad daylight, is it so mad that Tywin considers this an act of war? His plan was to trade Tyrion for Ned Stark and I'm pretty sure Cat would have took it because of the Tully words.

[SirPeter]

But you need no war for this kind of thing. He had Ned and should he be so brilliant the trade could have been made. But instead he had a full scale war he started on his hand.

As mentioned the plan needs a specific woman to be in control of the prisoner. This woman would, for obvious reasons, only be able to hold to this control in the North.

The plan to capture Ned and trade him for Tyrion failed in an epic way. For me this is not exactly brilliance. Even if the king would be alive and even if Robb did not intervene and even if he had Ned the prisioner was a prisoner of the Vale at that point. Even if the trade would be made with Lysa, the war in the riverlands would still be in process. It was just undirected agression to the point where he is forced to deescalate. It was Tywins luck not to take riverrun. Because at that point there would have been a larger escalation. Kill Edmure and Tywin can kiss Tyrion goodbye. And that would be another blow to his "honour".

Tywin had more luck than brilliance.

Hostage negotiations while killing each other is kind of pointless.

[The Red Hand]

But you need no war for this kind of thing. He had Ned and should he be so brilliant the trade could have been made. But instead he had a full scale war he started on his hand.

Is starting a war over family honor worth it? Not to me, but I guess it's different when your'e highborn.

As mentioned the plan needs a specific woman to be in control of the prisoner. This woman would, for obvious reasons, only be able to hold to this control in the North.

The plan to capture Ned and trade him for Tyrion failed in an epic way. For me this is not exactly brilliance. Even if the king would be alive and even if Robb did not intervene and even if he had Ned the prisioner was a prisoner of the Vale at that point. Even if the trade would be made with Lysa, the war in the riverlands would still be in process. It was just undirected agression to the point where he is forced to deescalate. It was Tywins luck not to take riverrun. Because at that point there would have been a larger escalation. Kill Edmure and Tywin can kiss Tyrion goodbye. And that would be another blow to his "honour".

A plan can still be brilliant even if it doesnt work, espescially if variables outside of your control cause it to not work. How was Tywin to know that Ned had injured his leg and wouldn't lead the attack himself? He still judged that Ned would respond himself (had he been able) when he heard of "raiders" attacking the Riverlands. And Tyrion was still technically in Cat's control until Tyrion tricked Lysa into the trial.

Deciding to attack the Riverlands was a dick move to say the least but looking back I can see why he did it.

Tywin had more luck than brilliance.

Hostage negotiations while killing each other is kind of pointless.

Actually I think Tywin wasn't lucky. If not for Jaime's rashness( which caused Ned to break his leg) the war might have ended with that raid. And Robb and Cat fought the Whispering Wood in the hopes that they would take captives and thereby be able to trade for Ned. It was Joffrey who messed up that plan.

edit: Oh, and Edmund was taken captive twice without dying.

[Frey Pie]

People who still harp on about Tywin did it for his son-reread the books.

To those who talk about Ned being captured if he hadnt been injured-its not that simple. Tywin was hoping Ned would be captured bby Gregor Clegane. Neds an experienced commander, who isnt going to be caught all that easily. Hes not Beric Dondarrion. If Gregor takes him its all good. If Ned escapes or beats back Gregor (as likely as Gregor winning) he gets back to KL and Tywins up shit creek without a paddle

[AdXRoss]

I'm not sure Tywin had really gone all in prior to Robert's death, because he was continuing to act through his dogs and if I'm not mistaken, until Robert dies, he only acts through Gregor, a man with an evil reputation and no longer standing family name, or relatives who might object to the Clegane dynasty being wiped out (the Hound hates his brother and is in effect a glorified manservant). Had things gone south for Tywin without Robert dying, and perhaps sobering up enough to do something, he could always offer Gregor up as a scapegoat, an unruly and rabid dog who could be put down in public. The shear strength of Casterly Rock would give him a reasonable footing from which to do this, because no matter how much the other houses didn't believe the 'mad Gregor went rogue' excuse, an all-out war with the Lannisters remains a very undesirable outcome for all involved.

The idea of getting Ned to ride out himself actually had reasonable mileage too, since he's renowned for never using a headsman and dealing the king's justice with his own blade.

Tywin also has a long-held reputation for using very aggressive tactics and these seem to have served him quite well in restoring the Lannister name after the lordship of Tytos, so the plan doesn't seem particularly out of character. It is only with Robert dead and the throne firmly in Lannister hands that Tywin actually declares all-out war.

[SirPeter]

Actually I think Tywin wasn't lucky. If not for Jaime's rashness( which caused Ned to break his leg) the war might have ended with that raid. And Robb and Cat fought the Whispering Wood in the hopes that they would take captives and thereby be able to trade for Ned. It was Joffrey who messed up that plan.

For the negotiation strategy to work it would be enough to attack Ned and then deescalate the situation. Instead he escalated it. There was never a need to attack Riverrun or Haarenhall. And technically Joffrey was just the peak, Tyrion failed Tywin's strategy by simply regaining freedom. Tywin couldn't deescalate the situation and there was blood in the water even before Ned's dead. Joeffrey just showed everyone that he will not deescalate. He unmasqued Tywins problems. Because even if Tywin's plan would have worked, it would have been a long term failure with the risk of pissing 3 of 8 lieg lord families. That's why I think the plan is very short term. It sounds ok if the overall goal is just the freedom. But there is a day after the prisoner exchange. The moment Sansa would return at least the North would be lost to the kingdom. Why should anyone stand down after the exchange ? It was clear that the Lannisters would remove the Stark from power after this move, they have to, simply because they fear the revenge. While this plan is short-term brilliant, it is long-term suicide, he destroys the important relation between king and lord.

No, Tywin had a little war of his own because his pride forced him to roar.

[Mr Fixit]

I would have to agree with SirPeter. The correct course for Tywin after getting a hold of Ned was to deescalate the situation by sending envoys to the North and trying to hammer out an agreement. His grandson was king, the throne firmly held by Lannisters, there was no need to further antagonize Tullys, Starks, Arryns or Baratheons by going on a full-scale rampage.

[Victor227]

I would have to agree with SirPeter. The correct course for Tywin after getting a hold of Ned was to deescalate the situation by sending envoys to the North and trying to hammer out an agreement. His grandson was king, the throne firmly held by Lannisters, there was no need to further antagonize Tullys, Starks, Arryns or Baratheons by going on a full-scale rampage.

The big problem is simply that communication isn't that fast when you're in the field. By the time Robert died and Ned was captured by Joffrey, Tywin really had little in the way of clues as to how the situation would proceed. He was already rolling over the Riverlords, so why quit when you're ahead? He was on the verge of getting his hands on Hoster Tully, and with him and Ned Stark as hostages, he could force the Riverlands and North to come to his aid (or at least keep out of the succession). He had an army ready to check the North or Vale, he had an army investing Riverrun, and he had Stannis to deal with. I can see why he'd want to finish up his business with the Tully-Stark alliance rather than leave them as an uncertain factor for the 'real' war with Stannis (and later when Renly became the prime contender).

If Robert had stayed alive, and Ned had been captured as planned, you can bet Tywin would have backed off big-time and gone with that exact route to put things to peace. But Joffrey was no Robert. I can see why he'd feel the need to drive the point of Lannister power home to secure his grandson's throne (especially if it was revealed to him the exact circumstances of Ned's capture, in that he tried to take the throne from Joffrey).

[Mr Fixit]

He was already rolling over the Riverlords, so why quit when you're ahead? He was on the verge of getting his hands on Hoster Tully, and with him and Ned Stark as hostages, he could force the Riverlands and North to come to his aid (or at least keep out of the succession).

I am not that certain of chronology, but some posters here argued that Tywin was merely raiding and pillaging via Gregor. It was only after Robert died that he launched a full-scale invasion of the Riverlands.

As for Stannis, he declares his intentions later, in ACoK.

[The Red Hand]

I would have to agree with SirPeter. The correct course for Tywin after getting a hold of Ned was to deescalate the situation by sending envoys to the North and trying to hammer out an agreement. His grandson was king, the throne firmly held by Lannisters, there was no need to further antagonize Tullys, Starks, Arryns or Baratheons by going on a full-scale rampage.

After Robert's death and Ned's capture the Lannisters were in control of the crown and Ned Stark was a traitor. Robb was fighting as a rebel lord against the crown and Tywin couldn't allow that. Tywin's plan was to bloody Robb and send him running "with his tail between his legs" take captives, and then agree to a piece. Tywins own philosophy was that when an enemy rises against you, you serve him steel and fire. But when an enemy submits you pull him up with an open hand, or else no one wiill ever submit to you(or something similar). I don't blame him for choosing to fight Robb after he turned rebel, but the war in the riverlands was pretty much his fault.

[SirPeter]

Tywin is kinda hard to catch. He seems to change his plans and operational goals all the time. And he makes it Robb nearly impossible to come to a compromise. Just remember what happened a generation befor with Neds siblings. He may say he pulls a submitting enemy with open hands, but I can't see it. He keeps a grudge on Aerys and Tully and seems to take two steps at one.

But it remains very unclear, what he wants. Even after Ned's dead there was no reason to attack Robb. He didn't help Aerys and he hadn't to help Joeffrey. He could have made a peace treaty at his favours, the war was pretty much done. There was nothing to fight over. I get the idea that Tywin is in the Castamere - rebellion- mode where he suggested to send back Lord Tarbeck in pieces. The Ned heading thing is exactly that behaviour. Of course all Tullys behave stupid, else things would go far worse for Tywin.

I tend to think Tywin is a great diplomat and a competent tactician, but he lacks the ability to focus on operational goals. He seems to act more after opportunity and that was exactly the way Robb got him. He gave Tywin opportunities over and over again and Tywin fell for them. I tend to think the Riverlands were such an opportunity Tywin couldn't resist. He did not think it through, the consequences of his success or failure and he couldn't stop.

[Frey Pie]

After Robert's death and Ned's capture the Lannisters were in control of the crown and Ned Stark was a traitor. Robb was fighting as a rebel lord against the crown and Tywin couldn't allow that. Tywin's plan was to bloody Robb and send him running "with his tail between his legs" take captives, and then agree to a piece. Tywins own philosophy was that when an enemy rises against you, you serve him steel and fire. But when an enemy submits you pull him up with an open hand, or else no one wiill ever submit to you(or something similar). I don't blame him for choosing to fight Robb after he turned rebel, but the war in the riverlands was pretty much his fault.

Which makes him sound fairly hypocritical, what with the famous Reynes of Castamere

[Ramsay Gimp]

Which makes him sound fairly hypocritical, what with the famous Reynes of Castamere

They had a history of rebellion against his family, and they were direct vassals of Casterly Rock. Bit different than the Northmen and Riverlords during WO5K