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NFL 2012 Superbowl Prelude: Gods Must Be Strong


Sivin

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I've spent a lot of ink (er, pixels!) defending Jay Cutler on these boards, but comparing him to Rodgers is utterly ridiculous. Cutler is far better than most people think, but Rodgers has been absurdly good the last few years.

I always find it interesting the arguments I get into on this board. In the past year I have been on both sides of:

Tony Romo - Choker or not so Choker?

Jay Cutler - Terrible or Best Evar?

Green Bay Receivers - Best in League or Below Average?

In case you are wondering, the answer is both, neither, and neither. I live up to my custom title.

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I always find it interesting the arguments I get into on this board. In the past year I have been on both sides of:

Tony Romo - Choker or not so Choker?

Jay Cutler - Terrible or Best Evar?

Green Bay Receivers - Best in League or Below Average?

In case you are wondering, the answer is both, neither, and neither. I live up to my custom title.

It's completely in line with the frequent "Jaime Lannister: Paragon of Virtue" or "Ned Stark is Evil" discussions on these boards.

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I think we can say this about many quarterbacks, to different degree. AR might serve as a new template for how to develop quarterbacks, or would have before this new generation blew the doors off preconceptions.

For example, especially before his shoulder went and turned his arm from very good to average/below average, I think we could say that if the 49ers draft Rodgers and put him through what Smith went through and Smith was nurtured the way Rodgers was, we'd see something of a flip in careers. I am unsure Smith would have gotten quite as good, but we really don't know...they were very comparable at draft time and Smith is also exceptionally bright.

Just as a for instance.

Somewhat but Rodgers has a crazy arm. He would have been good anywhere.

Smith would certainly have ended up better in better circumstances but I'm not sure if he would have ended up a pro bowler anywhere. Except maybe baltimore

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Somewhat but Rodgers has a crazy arm. He would have been good anywhere.

Smith would certainly have ended up better in better circumstances but I'm not sure if he would have ended up a pro bowler anywhere. Except maybe baltimore

Not to mention a lightning fast release and smart mobility - athletically Rodgers has all the gifts you'd want if you were drawing up a prototype QB for this era. And more than anything he carries that chip on his shoulder from being slighted that makes him work as hard as anyone. Maybe he loses some of that if he goes #1 overall to SF, but I think still the fact that no major colleges wanted him and that he'd have to go the JUCO route stays with him and fuels him. I think in retrospect he'd have been good anywhere, but he's more refined because he a ) went to GB and b ) had the time on the bench to observe Favre, the west coast offense and learn. Hell, maybe he goes elsewhere and becomes Jay Cutler. There's a fun alternate universe playing out somewhere.

As for Alex Smith, he's as big time "What If" in my mind. As good as Harbaugh made him this last year and a half I think most of us can admit he doesn't have that palapable "it" quality the best QBs have. But depending on the day, I can go either way down the: "all the hits he took and the disaster of an offense he played on in his formative years sent him halfway down the David Carr path" road or "there's fundamental QBing attributes he was never gonna possess." Sure he's smart, but so is Ryan Fizpatrick, doesn't mean you have those intangible qualities necessary to be one of the really good QBs that seem to populate the sport these days.

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I didn't mean to say that he's all arm, because he's not, but it's more important to him than it was to Manning. If only because he's grown so fond of bullet-ing it into tight coverage for those TE's.

Well I'm glad you're not saying Brady is all arm, because it'd be hard to square the "Brady is dependent on arm strength" theory you just formulated with the "Brady throws nothing but short passes" comment back when you were lecturing us about the history of passing offenses in the NFL. After all, I thought Brady was the one who invented the short passing game to overcome the deep ball offenses that Joe Montana made fashionable, or some shit like that.

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Not to mention a lightning fast release and smart mobility - athletically Rodgers has all the gifts you'd want if you were drawing up a prototype QB for this era. And more than anything he carries that chip on his shoulder from being slighted that makes him work as hard as anyone. Maybe he loses some of that if he goes #1 overall to SF, but I think still the fact that no major colleges wanted him and that he'd have to go the JUCO route stays with him and fuels him. I think in retrospect he'd have been good anywhere, but he's more refined because he a ) went to GB and b ) had the time on the bench to observe Favre, the west coast offense and learn. Hell, maybe he goes elsewhere and becomes Jay Cutler. There's a fun alternate universe playing out somewhere.

As for Alex Smith, he's as big time "What If" in my mind. As good as Harbaugh made him this last year and a half I think most of us can admit he doesn't have that palapable "it" quality the best QBs have. But depending on the day, I can go either way down the: "all the hits he took and the disaster of an offense he played on in his formative years sent him halfway down the David Carr path" road or "there's fundamental QBing attributes he was never gonna possess." Sure he's smart, but so is Ryan Fizpatrick, doesn't mean you have those intangible qualities necessary to be one of the really good QBs that seem to populate the sport these days.

His 2 separations in his throwing shoulder and the further damage caused by playing with it for weeks because Nolan stupidly decided he was faking it REALLY affected his arm strength and release. Before that he had a very strong arm and, at draft time, was considered to have a quicker release than Rodgers. And more athletic.

So, while Rodgers sat, learned, worked with gurus on his technique and mechanics and became immessed in his system, Smith was thrown in behind a sieve offensive line, lead the league in sacks year after year, with a different coordinator every year, no wide receivers, and until Vernon Davis, no receivers at all. Add the injuries to that and I think you are seriously underestimating how much he's lot along the way, from a physical standpoint.

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If this is so, I suspect that the injuries were the bigger deal rather than the being thrown to the wolves thing.

That is to say that I don't think the reason Rodgers is good is because he got to sit for a few years. Nothing teaches like real game experience.

David Carr would disagree.

Smith was just getting pounded game after game. That's not teaching, that's attrition.

If you have them live though it for 1 year and add elite talent as WRs or OL or whatever, you can chalk it up to branded by fire. But you aren't learning from the experience if next year you have a new coordinator and the same porous line and no receivers. you just get him pounded again. And again e next year. And the next. And the next.

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Wow. You learn something new every day. Today's lesson: Dallas could do WORSE than they do with Jerry Jones if the wrong person was in charge.

The only choices for starting a franchise are either Rodgers, Luck, RG3, or maybe Kaepernick or WIlson. Rodgers is the sure thing - but shorter playing lifespan. Luck is the surest thing among the young guys - he's had the target on himself longest and keeps coming up aces. Griffin may be the best talent, but the injury risk keeps me away. Wilson and Kaepernick have resumes too short for my taste, but each could easily prove to be the best of the lot down the road (Wilson played half a season with blinders on and was so-so, Kaepernick has only played nine games). You can argue within that list and I won't think you wrong, but outside it is almost certainly a mistake.

All I can say that is if Dallas went first and picked Jay Cutler the team in the sixth slot would scream "Ch-Ching!".

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One of the traits that makes Brady stand out to me is his footwork. It's uncanny.

He isn't mobile at all, but his pocket presence and his ability to maintain eyes downfield while staying aligned toward the throw are a thing to watch.

He's not a runner, but Brady's athleticism is really underrated. Just watch him on QB sneaks - he doesn't just barrel forward like most QBs. To freeze the defenders for a split-second, he head-fakes like he's going to drop back, and then very quickly changes direction and lunges behind the correct gap. There's a subtlety to it which most QBs never learn (and which most coaches, strangely, don't bother to teach).

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His 2 separations in his throwing shoulder and the further damage caused by playing with it for weeks because Nolan stupidly decided he was faking it REALLY affected his arm strength and release. Before that he had a very strong arm and, at draft time, was considered to have a quicker release than Rodgers. And more athletic.

So, while Rodgers sat, learned, worked with gurus on his technique and mechanics and became immessed in his system, Smith was thrown in behind a sieve offensive line, lead the league in sacks year after year, with a different coordinator every year, no wide receivers, and until Vernon Davis, no receivers at all. Add the injuries to that and I think you are seriously underestimating how much he's lot along the way, from a physical standpoint.

That's cool. I think you're seriously overestimating the notion that Alex Smith could've been Aaron Rodgers if drafted by the Packers. I've seen enough unique gifts in Rodgers such that I'm not positive anyone else could've become what Aaron Rodgers is now.

As for physical gifts, I agree Alex Smith had equivalent mobility to Aaron Rodgers but the rest is a huge overstatement. Check out an example scouting report from Alex Smith coming out. Does this sound like an equivalent arm talent? How about this?

Meanwhile every scouting report on Rodgers, even back then mentioned his live arm and quick release.

Listen, I get the tendency to think about Alex Smith in "what could've been" terms. I remember thinking quite clearly at the time that he was the better pick for his intangibles, mobility and all those wins at Utah. But I, like the 49ers, underestimated what Aaron Rodgers was or would become which actually is a running theme in his football career. And I think I'm seeing a lot of historical revisionism in how you're choosing to remember Alex Smith.

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How much did Kyle Boller and Akili Smith cause Rodgers' stock to drop?

I think a ton. I'm sure Ravens fans still throw up in their mouth a little bit at the thought of the Kyle Boller era. Cincy fans would do the same if they could even remember the Akili Smith era.

The irony is that it appears Urban Meyer's system left his highly touted QBs less NFL ready than anyone.

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I think a ton. I'm sure Ravens fans still throw up in their mouth a little bit at the thought of the Kyle Boller era. Cincy fans would do the same if they could even remember the Akili Smith era.

In my mouth? Shit, Independent George owes me a new keyboard.

The problem was less Boller himself as it was Billick's devotion to him. Eventually, that was resolved when they brought in the late Steve McNair, but Boller did plenty of damage for long enough. People are still afraid Flacco will turn into Boller, I suspect. The amount that fear occurs will only increase when Flacco signs his extension with the Ravens.

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Actually, while that is true of Tebow, I think Alex Smith could've been the prototypical read option QB if there had been coaches and schemes set up for it when he got drafted. That guy had great, great mobility coming out of Utah.

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In my mouth? Shit, Independent George owes me a new keyboard.

The problem was less Boller himself as it was Billick's devotion to him. Eventually, that was resolved when they brought in the late Steve McNair, but Boller did plenty of damage for long enough. People are still afraid Flacco will turn into Boller, I suspect. The amount that fear occurs will only increase when Flacco signs his extension with the Ravens.

Especially when you consider the fact that Baltimore drafted Mark Clayton two picks ahead of Rodgers. If they'd just held on to Dilfer, they likely could have picked up Rodgers a few short years later.

I'm sorry, what do I owe you this time?

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In my mouth? Shit, Independent George owes me a new keyboard.

The problem was less Boller himself as it was Billick's devotion to him. Eventually, that was resolved when they brought in the late Steve McNair, but Boller did plenty of damage for long enough. People are still afraid Flacco will turn into Boller, I suspect. The amount that fear occurs will only increase when Flacco signs his extension with the Ravens.

Man, hasn't Flacco already surpassed everything Boller could've hoped to be?

Short of him getting some kind tropical brain parasite, I think you guys are in the clear.

Actually, while that is true of Tebow, I think Alex Smith could've been the prototypical read option QB if there had been coaches and schemes set up for it when he got drafted. That guy had great, great mobility coming out of Utah.

Yeah, I actually think Meyer can make a somewhat fair case that teams needed to do more to adapt their offenses to the QBs they drafted. But Smith especially was drafted in the heart of the "keep banging that square peg into the round hole until it fits" era of NFL QB development.

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Especially when you consider the fact that Baltimore drafted Mark Clayton two picks ahead of Rodgers. If they'd just held on to Dilfer, they likely could have picked up Rodgers a few short years later.

It's fun getting into the what-ifs like that. I don't think holding on to Dilfer was tenable because the game manager QB just wasn't gonna keep being someone who could win Super Bowls. Everyone would pine about bringing back those days but the game is different, between rule changes and the way schemes and counter-schemes have evolved.

Clayton two picks ahead of Rodgers is killer. Also, the 1st rounder in 2004 that the Ravens traded to the Pats to move up to acquire Boller in 2003 (still disgusts me) ended up being Vince Wilfork. Now there's a guy who wouldn't look bad in purple. Oh well. I'm mostly happy with where the team is now, but they could have been back to the pinnacle so much sooner if they hadn't fucked around in the mid-00s for so long.

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ETA: Jaime L - I sweat that you did not take a shot at Wyatt Sexton up there, right? Because if you did, you'd have messed with my world in a way that I know you never would.

Oh, wow. I can safely say up until now I had no idea that Lyme Disease had ever ended a QB's career.

Though reading his account, is there some meaning behind the dichotomy of shirtless pushups in the street = lyme disease whereas shirtless situps in the driveway = crazy, diva WR?

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Whoa, what happened, I didn't wake up and find 84 post notifications this morning! Did the game get cancelled? :P

Now that a couple of days have gone by, the impression that remains with me about the 49ers win is that Kaepernick has a lot of character and fortitude. Coming back from 17 - 0 took cojones. to say the least.

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