The Great Northern Conspiracy, part 3

[Nuncle Kraken]

Probably my favorite theory ever. Thank you.

[lady m]

But isn't The GreatJon there when Robb is killed? There were two Freys tasked with getting him drunk and he ends up drinking them under the table. I could be wrong, but I thought he was still in the hall when everything hit the fan, and killed a bunch of people before they could capture him. He was sitting near the dais, IIRC. He's being held at The Twins with the group Jaimie was negotiating transfer for, I thought.

Ugh, guess I need to reread the RW chapter from ASOS, not my favorite thing.

If I'm right, I don't understand how Roose could let him live, or Walder Frey. Also, he can't be the only surviving witness, can he?

PS, The GreatJon has the best name in the series, makes me smile everything I see it.

ETA - Thank you, WiDMNDBAMMD, I hadn't seen that prior to posting, so he was in the hall. Roose's plan makes no sense.

[nenya~]

Anyways, returning to the topic now, lol, Robett Glover seems to be quite elusive. I wonder if the folks with digital versions of the books could do a search for his name so that his whereabouts can be tracked. When does he return to the North? And does he head straight for White Harbor? There might even be some clues in Asha's chapters at Deepwood Motte. Plus, he disappears again after Davos's audiences with Manderly. The speculation's that Glover commands another northern army also on the march to Winterfell, IIRC, without the Boltons or Stannis's knowledge and hidden by the snow, maybe by way of the White Knife.

Ok, just did a search. Robett was one of the prisoners in Harrenhal that was released by Arya, then sent to Duskendale by Roose (which was after the Ironborn took Deepwood Motte).

Glover has lost a castle, and Tallhart a son. Let them take their vengeance on Duskendale. (pg 892, acok)

Then in Storm in the same chapter as the signing of the Will:

Galbart Glover was relieved to hear that his brother Robett had been put on a ship at Duskendale...(pg 515, asos)

I'd imagine he'd go straight for White Harbor since he went by ship, and has been there for a while.

As for Glover commanding another army, in ADWD:

Other tidings were of greater interest. Robett Glover was in the city and had been trying to raise men, with little success. Lord Manderly had turned a deaf ear to his pleas. White Harbor was weary of war, he was reported to have said. That was bad. (pg 198, adwd)

Weary of war my ass! More like biding his time until he gets his son back.

[Eir]

One thing that's bugged me lately is discussed in the spoiler below.

Spoiler

In Theon's WoW preview, Stannis mentions that the northmen want to see Theon executed for killing Bran and Rickon. Among the names he gives are those belonging to the mountain clans ... the guys who already know that Bran and presumably Rickon are still alive. It seemed weird to me that almost all of the major northern players at this point know that the boys are alive; it's a terribly kept secret. So why are they so eager to execute Theon for a crime they know at this point he didn't commit? (Not touching on whether he deserves to die for killing the miller's boys; the crime in the preview is explicitly the deaths of the Stark boys.)

It might be an act--it would be strange if they didn't

Spoiler

call for Theon's death

given what he's supposedly done to sons of Eddard Stark. If I were Stannis, I'd grow suspicious if they left him be.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

"He[Merrett Frey] cozened the huge northman into drinking enough wine to kill any three normal men, yet after Roslin had been bedded the Greatjon still managed to snatch the sword of the first man to accost him.... It had taken eight of them to get him into chains the effort left two wounded, one dead, and poor old ser Leslyn Haigh short half an ear."

There's no way that they go to the effort to get the biggest Northman there is into chains just to kill him.

ETA - Thank you, WiDMNDBAMMD, I hadn't seen that prior to posting, so he was in the hall. Roose's plan makes no sense.

Actually I take this to mean that the Greatjon was upstairs with the bedding crowd (note the mention of Roslin) when he was taken, NOT that he was in the hall itself and as such he wouldn't have seen Roose killing Robb.

[Dr. Pepper]

Yes, the Greatjon participated in the bedding, so wasn't in the hall.

She heard the Greatjon, though. “Give this little bride to me,” he bellowed as he shoved through the other men and threw Roslin over one shoulder. “Look at this little thing! No meat on her at all!”

I was just doing a quick scan through and it seems as though every single person in the hall, who could have served as witness to the Northmen pouring through, were killed.

[lady m]

Actually I take this to mean that the Greatjon was upstairs with the bedding crowd (note the mention of Roslin) when he was taken, NOT that he was in the hall itself and as such he wouldn't have seen Roose killing Robb.

Oops, my bad! Which means they may never know what exactly happened, nor the extent of Roose's treachery.

I was just doing a quick scan through and it seems as though every single person in the hall, who could have served as witness to the Northmen pouring through, were killed.

So, every single Northerner that made it out of The Twins unscathed is a Bolton or sworn to Roose? That doesn't look at all suspicious.

[Dr. Pepper]

So, every single Northerner that made it out of The Twins unscathed is a Bolton or sworn to Roose? That doesn't look at all suspicious.

I'm really not sure. All of those in the hall were definitely killed, except the Boltons and Freys. He was witnessed and those who witnessed him are still alive. That sort of information can't possibly stay contained. I think. The rest of the info is scattered in several other POVs. I believe Arya witnessed a lot of dying going on with those trapped in the tents. I do find it hard to believe that no one at all escaped.

It's probably an open secret in the north who was part of the Red Wedding. Still not quite sure how many know for certain that Roose struck the killing blow for Robb.

[FittleLinger]

Really great summary, Yeade. Two things you mentioned that I don't see brought up a lot but do a great job of tying the Northern Conspiracy with what's going on in the Riverlands are 1. Brynden and Edmure having their unseen chat and 2. the Riverrun guys conveniently choosing to take the black after the castle falls. Both incidences are kind of glossed over when they happen, but might become important later. Edmure's self-satisfied look when Bryden is confirmed missing is noted by Jaime — what does he know? And if Brynden's goal is to go to the Vale and enlist help there from men who wanted to declare for Robb in the beginning, then that ties the Vale (and possibly Sansa) into it, too.

Similarly, most people focus on UnCat hanging Ryman Frey, but overlook the change in possession of Robb's crown and the fact that the Brotherhood seems to be using the Neck as a hideout, which implies collusion with the crannogmen. The more I reread those scenes — and I've said as much elsewhere on here — the more I really think the "real" story there is the crown and not necessarily Ryman.

I am acting on the assumption that both Manderly and Robett Glover know the contents of Robb's will when they send Davos to fetch Rickon. The Manderlys, Glovers and Momonts are all tied together, and I suggested in the thread about Osha and Rickon stopping in White Harbor that Manderly might have made contact with the Umbers about Bran and whether he made it to Last Hearth. The mountain clans know that Bran at least is alive, and I also believe that the clan leaders came to the Wall to scope out Jon and take measure of him.

One thing that's bugged me lately is discussed in the spoiler below.

In Theon's WoW preview, Stannis mentions that the northmen want to see Theon executed for killing Bran and Rickon. Among the names he gives are those belonging to the mountain clans ... the guys who already know that Bran and presumably Rickon are still alive. It seemed weird to me that almost all of the major northern players at this point know that the boys are alive; it's a terribly kept secret. So why are they so eager to execute Theon for a crime they know at this point he didn't commit? (Not touching on whether he deserves to die for killing the miller's boys; the crime in the preview is explicitly the deaths of the Stark boys.)

They could execute him as a traitor for taking Winterfell and etraying Robb, true. But again, that's not the specific crime they lay at his feet; it's the boys' deaths. Then it occurred to me that they might want Theon dead BECAUSE he knows that the boys are still alive. Stannis' savior complex in the north seems to rest on gaining support by helping the northerners avenge the deaths of Ned's sons. But if he learns that the boys are still alive, they could become his pawns, his hostages for good behavior or worse, targets because he sees them as competition. Dead, they're focal points of vengeance; alive, and what do the northerners need him for?

I have speculated that the biggest reason no one has told Jon yet about the will is because of Stannis' presence on the Wall. If Stannis sees Jon as a rival, he could turn on him. Same basic principle holds true for the boys — if Stannis knows they're alive, it's a game-changer. The northmen are, I believe, turning Stannis and Bolton on each other and then taking out the weakened "victor" before reinstalling the Starks. In which case, the northerners are calling for Theon's death not because they think he killed the boys, but because he's the major wildcard who could "out" their survival to Stannis and piss in the Cheerios. And yes I know that Manderly promised Davos that he'd support Stannis if Davos brought Rickon back, but I don't see that ever being followed through.

Probably the most satisfying thing for me is going to be when the curtain falls back and the GNC is revealed fully. I'm very curious to see how widespread it really is (or isn't).

That's a great analisys as usual, Apple. One thing, though. Doesn't Manderley risk an awful lot telling Davos, the most loyal Stannisman ever, that Rickon is alive AND basically giving Rickon to Davos if the whole plan is for Stannis to not find out Bran and Rickon are alive? Unless he installs someone with Davos to monitor him on his trip, but this wouldn't make sense, since Manderley promised he will follow Stannis afterwards and it would seem suspicious if one of his men prevents Davos from contacting Stannis. I know Davos and Stannis don't know each others exact whereabouts right now, but is it too impossible for them to get in touch and doesn't Manderley consider this a risk? If news of Rickon reach Stannis' army this could lead all kinds of dismay, which would not be beneficial to the Northern conspirators since Stannis has yet to fight Bolton/Frey?

[redriver]

What's contained in Apple Martini's spoiler makes more sense in the context of this,-

Essentially the Northern Clans are pissed off that the Starks have been ousted from Winterfell,even though some may believe that one or both of the boys are alive.

[Gogossos]

Now what link, if any, is there between the Great Northern Conspiracy and the pink letter?

My two cents:

Now if all the effort, as argued, has been poured into diverting attention from Jon then the pink letter simply does the opposite. If it's from Roose/Ramsay then it's a brilliant move on their part, forcing their enemies to reveal their best chess piece before they're ready. I doubt that though, I happen to believe that the letter could be part of the GNC. The conspirators face a few problems besides the Boltons, Freys and Stannis; they need a way of convincing Jon to take his place. Flint and Norrey's assessment, perhaps even Val and others aware of Stannis' offer, would have mentioned how particularly hard it is to tear Jon away from his NW vows.

Now, I struggle to believe how the GNC elements could be working together in a grand overarching way, even though it would be so beautiful to read it unfold. At Riverrun we had the Blackfish disappearing possibly towards Jon. At White Harbour we have the Manderly/Glover alliance; at Greywater Watch we have Reed/Mormont cooking up something, at Winterfell we have Lady Ryswell; etc. But non of these people can go to Jon and say: "Look, the whole North and Riverlands back you, and you might even have the Vale if what we're working on comes off. But you need to take the crown, you need to own the damn thing. All you have to do is say yes." Only Aemon or Sansa/Arya/Bran can say it. So in the absence of those people, what other option is there? Trick him into it. Obviously the pink letter's aim was to provoke Jon so much and it did. If Mance had something to do with the plotting, then he provided the details. Jon knows the big picture, the real threat, and only the wildlings seem to believe the same. Now, if Mance thinks helping the north to Jon's cause would help, I believe he would do it. So if the letter isn't from Ramsay, I really don't see any other purpose for it.

[sabrecmc]

As to raising a northern army, Davos comments that the women in Manderly's hall outnumbered men 5 to 1 and the men were old or young. I know a lot of young fighting men would've been lost with Robb, but that observation struck me as perhaps meaningful.

[King Bobby B]

I don't know if it's been mentioned already, but when Davos is treating with Lord Wyman in front of the full court, Lady Leona (Lord Wyman's good-daughter) mentions "Ironmen from the isles, wildlings from beyond the Wall . . . and now this traitor lord with his outlaws." I know this comes right after Davos mentions Stannis protecting White Harbor from these two forces, but since we know Wex (ironborn from the isles) is there, I thought this might be more proof for the theory that Osha (wildling from beyond the Wall) and Rickon stopped in White Harbor before heading to Skagos. Sorry if it's been brought up before.

[sabrecmc]

Re-reading ADWD, and Lady Barbrey's chat with Theon in the crypts is so...bizarre. Its like, "Yeah, so I slept with Brandon and Dad really wanted me to marry a Stark, but instead I got a Dustin. Six months later, he road off with Ned on this awesome-sauce horse. Ned brought me back the horse, but dear old Dustin is buried under some tower in Dorne. Oh, and if I ever see Ned's bones, I'm feeding them to my dogs, m'kay?" Its just...weird.

So, my theory is that Lady Barbrey actually has Ned's bones, wanted to know where the entrance to the crypts was and get the rubble cleared in a non-suspicious way so she could put them in their rightful place one day. I would totally love it if somewhere amongst her travel bags, there is a box labeled "Treats for Dustin's Dogs" with a bunch of bones in it. Heh.

I also wonder if there is something about the missing swords that has to do with the GNC. That could have been a reason for her visit to the crypts. She notes Rickard's sword is gone and Theon notices another missing, but doesn't recognize the Stark who is missing his sword. Wonder if Barbrey does...like, is it a Brandon? Maybe with Rickard and Brandon's swords missing (taken by the Hooded Man?) there is some signal that Bran and Rickon are alive? Or if, say, the missing sword is from Jon Stark, who built the Wolf's Den at White Harbor, that could be a sign that Manderly is onboard with the GNC. I don't know if the swords really have anything to do with the GNC, but I like the idea that the northerners would be using things like that to communicate important bits of info that they can't otherwise share and that would only be meaningful to those who know to look for it.

[nenya~]

I also wonder if there is something about the missing swords that has to do with the GNC. That could have been a reason for her visit to the crypts. She notes Rickard's sword is gone and Theon notices another missing, but doesn't recognize the Stark who is missing his sword. Wonder if Barbrey does...like, is it a Brandon? Maybe with Rickard and Brandon's swords missing (taken by the Hooded Man?) there is some signal that Bran and Rickon are alive? Or if, say, the missing sword is from Jon Stark, who built the Wolf's Den at White Harbor, that could be a sign that Manderly is onboard with the GNC. I don't know if the swords really have anything to do with the GNC, but I like the idea that the northerners would be using things like that to communicate important bits of info that they can't otherwise share and that would only be meaningful to those who know to look for it.

Bran and co. are the ones that took the swords. That's why I think Lady Dustin takes note of it...Wex tells the Manderlys that they hid in the crypts and took the swords. Once that info gets to Lady Dustin, she goes to the crypts to confirm if the swords were actually taken.

eta: And to be more specific, Osha takes Ned's sword, Meera takes Lord Rickard's, and Bran takes his Uncle Brandons (this is in asos).

Not sure about the others. Lady Dustin says "That king is missing a sword," so probably Hodor took that one? Can't remember if Jojen took one?

[FittleLinger]

Bran and co. are the ones that took the swords. That's why I think Lady Dustin takes note of it...Wex tells the Manderlys that they hid in the crypts and took the swords. Once that info gets to Lady Dustin, she goes to the crypts to confirm if the swords were actually taken.

eta: And to be more specific, Osha takes Ned's sword, Meera takes Lord Rickard's, and Bran takes his Uncle Brandons (this is in asos).

Not sure about the others. Lady Dustin says "That king is missing a sword," so probably Hodor took that one? Can't remember if Jojen took one?

Yep, Hodor took one as well.

[Sailor's Wife]

It specifically says that Hodor's sword is old and rusty--makes sense that his would have been older, a former king's.

[FittleLinger]

By the way it makes sense to check how many swords were taken. Because if someone tells her - the tow Stark kids are alive - they were in the crypts and took some swords. But how did they survive - one is a cripple, the other is a small child. But if there were other people with them - then it makes more sense. So four swords sounds about right, and maybe that's what Barbrey was checking.

[Prince of the North]

I've just glanced at this thread so forgive me if this has already been mentioned but Lady Stoneheart was also witness to the Red Wedding. Now, we can certainly debate whether she's still "alive" but she's certainly still able to relay what happened.

[Jon's Queen Consort]

I love this theory.

And today during zumba I had a completely crackpot idea based on this theory. We were listening to a Greek song, called Μαυρη πεταλουδα (Black butterfly) and in this song there are two lyrics:

knives are sleeping in the mountains

and the black butterfly wakes them.

and then I got this idea.

How about there is a *secret defence agancy* in the North that defends and help the Starks their most dark hour?