*BOOM* Varys is working for... (new theory, EXPLAINS IT ALL, Mystery Solved!)

[George W. Lannister]

To the OP -- where is there evidence or leading hints that Varys helped Jaqen/a FM infiltrate the Citadel? And also, of the purpose of the FM going into the Citadel?

Those are all presumptions at this point, so basing a presumption on other presumptions is a bit flimsy.

I see your point about the poor safety planning of Aegon and agree that it doesn't sound like realistic thinking, but the rest of your theory is a little weak. I guess it doesn't hurt to take leaps at these things, though! I hadn't thought of any Others connection.

[The Rise of Dorne]

OK well. Let just say that analysis, is fairly good. Though a little obvious. Its fairly apparent Young Griff isn't Rhaegar's son. So he has to be someone else and someone with purple eyes. So there was always a decent chance he was a blackfyre. Illyrio specified the male line had died out, I'm not sure people in Westeros make a distinction no one has ever claimed the female line was dead. So that doesn't really make this unique information. But the implications are obvious enough. However, Illyrio runs a spy network and trades in information so he doesn't have had to have married a Blackfyre to know this. Illyrio also has a really large staff that lives in his house, those clothes could have belonged to any of them. Still good catch. The statue, well, thats sort of neither here nor there Illyrio started making money while he was still a Bravo. Some else could have had the statue made of him at that time, and Ilyyrio purchased it later. And someone else could have been used a model even if the statue was brand new.

But OK I can buy Young Griff is Illyrio's son and/or a blackfyre. OK. but what about Varys?

There's no real support for Varys. Davos and Rhaegar were both born in Kingslanding, by your logic, that would make them brothers. Varys shaves his head, so did Syrio so did Tywin. Plus Varys wears wigs and disguises all the time and many mummers shave their heads for this purpose.

And there's still the problem that if Varys is trying to help Aegon, why is is plan so shitty?

And that's the problem I have. Its not with Aegon's motivations, his motivations are clear. The problem is Varys' motivations don't make sense.

[The Rise of Dorne]

To the OP -- where is there evidence or leading hints that Varys helped Jaqen/a FM infiltrate the Citadel? And also, of the purpose of the FM going into the Citadel?

Those are all presumptions at this point, so basing a presumption on other presumptions is a bit flimsy.

I see your point about the poor safety planning of Aegon and agree that it doesn't sound like realistic thinking, but the rest of your theory is a little weak. I guess it doesn't hurt to take leaps at these things, though! I hadn't thought of any Others connection.

Well we know Varys is "Rugen" and has complete control of the black cells. And when know Jaquen is magic shape shifting ninja. How a magic shapeshifting ninja manages to get captured and taken a live is a mystery. One might wonder whether such a person would have to want to be in the black cells in order to get there. We know Varys arranged Yoren to pick up Gendry and Ned, so that was a Varys wagon train.

We also know that the Alchemist didn't just want to get into the citadel but wanted a very specific key from an archmaester. We also know the Citadel is supposed to have the only copy of the book "the death of dragons" in its deepest vault. We also know the faceless men don't like dragons and that they brought death to the masters of Valyria. So what could the faceless men want in the citadel?

[Gramse]

I like this idea a lot.

According to Melisandre the Great other has already chosen his champion. Who might this be?

Since Melisandre is actively fighting against The Others this person should be someone who wants to destabilize any major opponent as much as possible. Some one who work against a unified Westeros.

Leaving two possible candidates: Littlefinger and Varys.

Varys help in getting Viserys and Danearys to the Dothraki. Dany marries Khal Drogo and before he knows that Viserys is dead he sends assassins to kill Dany knowing that Khal Drogo want revenge for this. And pushing the Dothraki for war against Westeros.

That didn't happen so know he turns to plan B, war between the Starks and the Lannisters. Hoping for a Stark alliance with Tully, Arryn and possibly Baratheon, against the Lannisters and possibly the Tyrells. (Worked.)

Varys sending a faceless man to the Wall (Jaqen) god knows what he could have done there. And possibly tried to send Ned Stark also. To make the Starks more of a threat to the Lannisters.

He then have to help Kings Landing from being taken by Stannis, he uses his connections to help and protect Tyrion as much as possible to prevent that Melisandre and the R'hollor followers take Kings Landing.

After this the Lannisters are of no more use for Varys, he then starts undermining the Lannisters in different ways.

Saving Tyrion from the dungeons actually serves his purpose. But the perfect lie shows up with Jamie Lannisters threats.

Sending Tyrion to Illyrio to continue the lie that they are on the same side. (Yes I believe Varys is playing The Cheese Monger)

And when finally Aegon arrives he sees his chance to go on a killing spree, taking out as many persons as possible who might calm things down.

[The guy from the Vale]

OK well. Let just say that analysis, is fairly good. Though a little obvious. Its fairly apparent Young Griff isn't Rhaegar's son. So he has to be someone else and someone with purple eyes. So there was always a decent chance he was a blackfyre. Illyrio specified the male line had died out, I'm not sure people in Westeros make a distinction no one has ever claimed the female line was dead. So that doesn't really make this unique information. But the implications are obvious enough. However, Illyrio runs a spy network and trades in information so he doesn't have had to have married a Blackfyre to know this. Illyrio also has a really large staff that lives in his house, those clothes could have belonged to any of them. Still good catch. The statue, well, thats sort of neither here nor there Illyrio started making money while he was still a Bravo. Some else could have had the statue made of him at that time, and Ilyyrio purchased it later. And someone else could have been used a model even if the statue was brand new.

But OK I can buy Young Griff is Illyrio's son and/or a blackfyre. OK. but what about Varys?

There's no real support for Varys. Davos and Rhaegar were both born in Kingslanding, by your logic, that would make them brothers. Varys shaves his head, so did Syrio so did Tywin. Plus Varys wears wigs and disguises all the time and many mummers shave their heads for this purpose.

And there's still the problem that if Varys is trying to help Aegon, why is is plan so shitty?

And that's the problem I have. Its not with Aegon's motivations, his motivations are clear. The problem is Varys' motivations don't make sense.

I agree that the Varys connection isn't as strong as the rest of that theory. I'll concede as much. It's just that to me, it makes the most sense in terms of Varys' motivations, and with his Valyrian (Targaryen?) name, the shaved hair and the shared background with Senna, there's at least a decent chance these two are related.

[The Rise of Dorne]

I agree that the Varys connection isn't as strong as the rest of that theory. I'll concede as much. It's just that to me, it makes the most sense in terms of Varys' motivations, and with his Valyrian (Targaryen?) name, the shaved hair and the shared background with Senna, there's at least a decent chance these two are related.

What Valyrian name?

The problem with Varys is that his motivations always seem apparent until you really examine them.Yeah sure Aegon seems to fit his motives best. But that's mostly because Aegon is the last character to be introduced and Varys has been off screen. If you look at his motives at the end of Storm of Swords you'd think he supported Dany, I guess. If you looked at the end of Clash of Kings, you might think he supports Tyrion. At the end of Game of Thrones, you might actually believe he supports the "the realm" or Ned. Aerys thought Varys was for him and so did Robert.

I think the reality is he's not for any of them.

[The guy from the Vale]

"Varys" has all the signs of a noble High Valyrian name (as opposed to the bastardized lowborn Free City names). It ends in -rys (Ae-rys, Vise-rys, Daene-rys) rather than -io (Syrio, Illyrio, Daario). It's also clearly High Valyrian in its use of v, a, and y. He's not a simple man from the Free Cities, even if he seems so; his name betrays descent from the Valyrian nobility.

It has always been clear (since AGoT Arya III, to be precise) that Varys doesn't care for the current elite in King's Landing at all. He did seem to support somebody in Essos even back then. That somebody looked like Viserys/Dany at first, but compared to the amount of resources he put into fAegon, Viserys and Dany suddenly do liik like plan B, or even worse, like one way of getting his plan A to pass. But the investment into fAegon has been so immense that I can't see him as anything other than a centerpiece of Varys' game. Giving two people shelter for a few months, and then selling them to the Dothraki, making a hefty profit in the process, looks like less of an investment than supporting someone for more than a decade, and giving that person a maester, a septa, a ship and two knights to boot. Viserys and Dany did make Illyrio and Varys some money; Aegon was a constant money sink, and also a high risk. If he wasn't central to their plans, I don't think how much they would have to invest that we'd believe someone to be important to them.

[Brandon the Epithetless]

Some dates and notes to keep in mind in helping us decipher Varys:

232 AL - Aerion Targaryen dies, leaves an infant son. Varys would have to be 68 in 300 AL if he was Brightflame's son, which would require sorcerous glamour or FM skills to disguise I think.

257 AL - War of the Ninepenny Kings, Maelys Blackfyre dies, end of active Blackfyre claims. If he was a son of Maelys he would be in his mid 40's which is a reasonable age for Varys.

276 AL - Tourney at Casterly Rock, last known public appearance of Aerys II outside of Red Keep before Defiance of Duskendale

276-281 AL - period of Aerys' increasing paranoia after (esp. against Rhaegar and Tywin) Defiance of Duskendale, he hires Varys at some point here

(I'm not sure if it is worth noting that the Defiance was rumored to be instigated by the Myrish Lady Serala, no connection aside from both originating from the Free Cities and similarity to Serra's name)

281 AL - Tourney at Harrenhal; Aerys II sets out from Red Keep once again after Varys tips him of Rhaegar's plot

(Important Note: Varys foils Rhaegar here which may cast doubts on why he would help his son now if f*Aegon is real, but it is consistent with Blackfyre theory as a Rhaegar led council would have removed the instability caused by Mad Aerys to Targaryen rule)

[The Rise of Dorne]

"Varys" has all the signs of a noble High Valyrian name (as opposed to the bastardized lowborn Free City names). It ends in -rys (Ae-rys, Vise-rys, Daene-rys) rather than -io (Syrio, Illyrio, Daario). It's also clearly High Valyrian in its use of v, a, and y. He's not a simple man from the Free Cities, even if he seems so; his name betrays descent from the Valyrian nobility.

It has always been clear (since AGoT Arya III, to be precise) that Varys doesn't care for the current elite in King's Landing at all. He did seem to support somebody in Essos even back then. That somebody looked like Viserys/Dany at first, but compared to the amount of resources he put into fAegon, Viserys and Dany suddenly do liik like plan B, or even worse, like one way of getting his plan A to pass. But the investment into fAegon has been so immense that I can't see him as anything other than a centerpiece of Varys' game. Giving two people shelter for a few months, and then selling them to the Dothraki, making a hefty profit in the process, looks like less of an investment than supporting someone for more than a decade, and giving that person a maester, a septa, a ship and two knights to boot. Viserys and Dany did make Illyrio and Varys some money; Aegon was a constant money sink, and also a high risk. If he wasn't central to their plans, I don't think how much they would have to invest that we'd believe someone to be important to them.

[The Rise of Dorne]

"Varys" has all the signs of a noble High Valyrian name (as opposed to the bastardized lowborn Free City names). It ends in -rys (Ae-rys, Vise-rys, Daene-rys) rather than -io (Syrio, Illyrio, Daario). It's also clearly High Valyrian in its use of v, a, and y. He's not a simple man from the Free Cities, even if he seems so; his name betrays descent from the Valyrian nobility.

It has always been clear (since AGoT Arya III, to be precise) that Varys doesn't care for the current elite in King's Landing at all. He did seem to support somebody in Essos even back then. That somebody looked like Viserys/Dany at first, but compared to the amount of resources he put into fAegon, Viserys and Dany suddenly do liik like plan B, or even worse, like one way of getting his plan A to pass. But the investment into fAegon has been so immense that I can't see him as anything other than a centerpiece of Varys' game. Giving two people shelter for a few months, and then selling them to the Dothraki, making a hefty profit in the process, looks like less of an investment than supporting someone for more than a decade, and giving that person a maester, a septa, a ship and two knights to boot. Viserys and Dany did make Illyrio and Varys some money; Aegon was a constant money sink, and also a high risk. If he wasn't central to their plans, I don't think how much they would have to invest that we'd believe someone to be important to them.

OH I see, Viserys, Daenerys, Rhaegar. got it. Seriously. I don't think that's enough evidence.

But Varys collects, cast off nobles. Tyrion, Ned, Gendry, Jon Connington, Ashara, Tyrek? And Aegon isn't nearly enough of a money sink for him to be he says he is or as important as a person pretending to be that person would be. Illyrio has plenty of money. "Aegon" should be in a house surrounded by unsullied pretending to be a pirate king or merchant prince. Or at least in a monastery or some other secluded place that is well defending. Not on a freaking raft.

And its not clear Varys was against the current elite in kingslanding, its clear his been against all of them. He was against Robert when he worked for Aerys, he's plotting with Ned, plotting with Tyrion, plotting with Tywin. He's always plotting, but he doesn't seem to be working for any of them. Again, Aegon seems like the beneficiary, but mostly because Varys hasn't had time to betray him yet, all he had was the epilogue. And four guys on a raft is not sufficient security for me to think "this time its different". In fact its so insufficient, I'm sure this time is just like all the rest.

Its like Varys is a serial adulterer and every time he cheats on you, you take him back and believe he's changed.

[A Crow Come Over]

Pretty sure that's not quiiiiiite how he words it. But yeah, it's implied that he, uh, "goes through them."

I think its due to their line of work, which is very dangerous. I don't think Varys is murdering them for no reason. In ADwD we see Illyrio's manse filled with mute servants, I believe that the 'little birds' who do survive and grow up go to Illyrios manse to work.

[SpareBoot]

I think its due to their line of work, which is very dangerous. I don't think Varys is murdering them for no reason. In ADwD we see Illyrio's manse filled with mute servants, I believe that the 'little birds' who do survive and grow up go to Illyrios manse to work.

Thats a good catch. I dont remember they were mute servets. That makes sense, the little birds who do a good job get 'rewarded'. I'm shocked NO ONE has caught a little bird spying.

[The Rise of Dorne]

up?

[The Rise of Dorne]

anyone. come on more eyes on this. I think he really could be working for the Other.

[Where Boars Glow]

Varys doesn't make any sense. Based on his actions, no coherent plan can be discerned.

Illyrio expected Dany to die. Varys couldn't have known Dany's dragon eggs would hatch. Viserys was crazy. The Dothraki were never very likely to cross the ocean and invade Westeros. Are we really to believe Varys' entire plans have hinged on 4 guys on a raft? What is this giligan's island? "Aegon" is supposed to be safe, in a pirate strewn, disease encrusted, war torn, corner of the world. Is that really where you store your most valuable asset?

Varys says he cares for innocents (when talking to Ned or Kevan) but murders children constantly to run his spy ring.

Why would Varys help a faceless man on mission to the Citadel to learn secrets about killing dragons? How did Jaquen get into the black cells?

Either Varys' plan to put Aegon on the throne is terrible or Varys is working for someone else.

Varys is not working for Littlefinger or the Lannisters. He's not working for the Starks. He doesn't seem to be working for Aegon's benefit, leaving him on that raft for 15 years. He wasn't doing Dany any favors marrying her to Drogo at 13. What faction is left?

The Others.

Maybe it was the Great Other Varys heard in that fire where his nuts were roasted. Maybe Varys has worked out a deal like Craster, and that's why he runs through so many children spies.

(either that or Varys is working for Euron, there's no one else left.)

More specifically he is working for BloodRaven. I thought everyone knew this? Bloodraven has always been the OG.

[The Rise of Dorne]

no one?

[Hotpie4theironthrone]

Just seen this, sorry i'm late to this thread, i have been thinking recently that he might be working for the others and i googled it!

Can't really add much to what has been said, i just think it is by process of elimination. Clearly he is helping the Targs but there is reason to doubt some aspects, i just think that the fact that he was fueling Aery's paranoia towards the end could mean that he wanted all of this destruction and in fighting to happen in the first place. He has always stopped movements that would be strong agaisnt the others e.g. Rhaegar conspiring against Aerys, Stannis taking the Iron Throne.

Not enough plausible evidence yet, but for me i think the notion that he might be weakening the realm for the others invasion seems to answer nearly everything he's done

[PrimeRhaegar]

varys is in the same plot doran and the jon con were relying on people you can't really trust and may have different objectives. Oh and the gods of course cause no one expected dany to hatch dragons

[Barristan the G.O.A.T]

Varys is on team Blackfyre and the perfumed seneschal.

[Frey family reunion]

Here are some other issues to consider: If Varys was turned into a eunech during a ritual involving sorcery, why would this be? Could there be a significance that Varys makes his first appearance only after Serela of Myr is burned to death (after her privates are cut out) after the Defiance of Dunskendale? Is it a coincidence that Illyrio's former bride is named Sera? When Varys is giving his speech to Kevan at the end of ADWD, where he extolls the virtues of "Aegon" is he really talking about Young Griff, or is he talking about someone else? Could he be talking about himself(herself)? Was the Blackfyre line really the first line of possible heirs to the Targaryen throne that was disinherited or could another line have been disinherited from the very beginning of the Targaryen rule because of gender instead of legitimiacy? Referring to the upcoming World of Ice and Fire, how did Maegor make his drastic recovery after his mother enlisted the aid of a healer from Pentos? Any idea of what happened to Visenya after that?