Varys poisoned Tywin Lannister (a theory)

[Moon-Pale Maiden]

While I'm still not sure which theory I like better, that Oberyn poisoned Tywin or that it was Varys, I have to question how Varys's assassination of Kevan in the same manner that Tyrion killed Tywin is supposed to be evidence for Varys's poisoning of Tywin.

I had always assumed that Varys used the crossbow to implicate Tyrion in Kevan's death. He may be a world away at this point, but Cersei is already seeing him around every corner, why not play on her paranoia to further the disorder in the throne room?

That is exactly how I understood it too when I read the books. It surely fits and makes sense. I only pointed this out in support of this theory because I felt that the repetition of words, sentences, and situation might point to another clue connecting Varys to the Tywin/Crossbow death. As in, it might have been intentionally written this way to allow us to make the connection to Varys as readers.

[Toccs]

While I'm still not sure which theory I like better, that Oberyn poisoned Tywin or that it was Varys, I have to question how Varys's assassination of Kevan in the same manner that Tyrion killed Tywin is supposed to be evidence for Varys's poisoning of Tywin.

Because it is echoing the way that Varys would have framed Oberyn for poisoning Tywin by using his signature weapon.

[butterbumps!]

This is great, Moon Pale Maiden, and I also think Twyin was poisoned. I think it was probably Varys, as you say, but I think some of the motivation you mention might be off.

For one thing, one reason I didn't fully buy the Oberyn theory is because Oberyn is dead significantly before Tywin's murder-- Tyrion spends quite a good bit of time in between the Oberyn-Gregor trial and his escape. That being said, the timing doesn't add up for Varys to put the blame of Oberyn for this either.

I actually posit that Varys intended for Tyrion to kill Tywin since at least aCoK, Tyrion 12. This is the chapter Varys brings Shae to Tyrion's room in the tower of the Hand; Shae reports that at one point her blindfold slipped, revealing the dragon mosaic-- the same mosaic Tyrion sees when Varys "rescues" him that compells him to go confront his father, where lo and behold Shae is also positioned. I think Varys orchestrated the whole thing, from timing it so that Jaime "forced" him to rescue Tywin, to the placement of Shae, the crossbow (conveniently above a footstool) and the fact that Tywin was in the bathroom-- all of these factors = dead Tywin. Varys always knew that Tywin would be taking up residence at the Tower after the war, that Tywin was probably the Hand who had a secret taste for whores, and I think this was in motion for a very long time-- that Tyrion was blamed for Joff's murder happened to align with Varys' plans. Varys' testimony at the trial helped cement Tyrion's guilt and ensured his confinement in the cells.

I think Varys needed to eliminate Tywin to crush a significant threat to his Aegon plan, as well as turn the Lannisters against each other such that Tyrion could be of use to him in Essos-- I think Varys wanted Tyrion to be a counselor for Aegon, and had always planned on spiriting him away, but knew Tyrion wouldn't without a significant confrontation with his father.

But I agree with your conclusions generally.

[A Crow Come Over]

I've been pondering the theory that Tywin Lannister was poisoned using Widow's blood by Oberyn Martell, and I've come to a slightly different conclusion. I do believe the Tywin was poisoned with Widow's blood, but I believe that Varys (or one of his little birds) and NOT Oberyn Martell was the poisoner. I also believe that Varys intended to frame Oberyn Martell or the Tyrells for the murder, depending on which would benefit his goals better. He also had a backup plan. Here me out..

First, we read about the poison in Tyrion's trial:

Why would we recieve a complete description about this one particular poison, and not the others, if we aren't to make use of this information? We are meant to understand the mechanics of widow's blood.

On the night Tyrion has Pycelle thrown in the Black Cells, he takes several jars from Pycelle's chambers.

If Varys suspected that Tyrion had poisoned his sister, he would have realized right away that Tyrion had taken some bottles from Maester Pycelle's chambers, and would have the opportunity to blame anything that was missing on Tyrion, should it come to light. Pycelle would have blamed all of the missing bottles Tyrion, seeing his obvious opportunity. We don't know exactly when Varys (or a little bird sent by him) stole the widow's blood, but we can assume that Pycelle may not have realized until the trial.

This is during Tyrion's trial. This gives us the first real and explicit suggestion that Tywin might have been poisoned. A subliminal suggestion by G. Martin?

This explicitly suggests that Varys' little birds are listening and would have gotten this information to Varys. If Oberyn had truly poisoned Tywin, I doubt he would have been so liberal in his conversation. Also, Oberyn knows, and admits as much, that any poisoning would sound suspiciously like the work of the Red Viper. It wouldn't be the brightest way for Oberyn to murder Tywin Lannister.

I don't believe that Varys expected or intended for Tyrion to kill his father, but seeing his chance to pin on another, he gave Tyrion all of the instructions. Varys knew he was going into hiding, so he wasn't worried about his own role in the poisoning. How did the poison get slipped into Tywin's drink? Why, a little bird, posing as a cup bearer.

Varys knew that the crossbow was in easy reach; he had arranged for that furniture to be placed there. Why? That was his backup plan. A small child could easily reach the crossbow, kill Tywin while he was in bed with Shae, and sneak out through the hidden door. Or, if he needed to cast blame on the Tyrells, he may have come back after leading Tyrion away, and done the deed himself. He had already planted the Highgarden coin in Rugan's cell, remember. Both Tyrion's escape and the death of Tywin Lannister could have been pinned on the Tyrells.

Once Tyrion went missing, Tywin would have immediately suspected Varys, and so Varys would have had to kill him or else risk the strength and force of Tywin Lannister dragging him out for an inquisition.

Tyrion knew exactly where to find his father because he knew that he himself didn't steal Widow's blood, and that Varys' little birds were listening to Oberyn's damning speech and assumed that Varys had taken it upon himself to poison Tywin and blame it on Oberyn. It was easier for Tyrion to kill his father knowing that his father was already dead.

Ser Kevan's death is described in almost the exact same wording as Tywin's. Further reinforcing the idea that this was Varys' plan all along.

...and using the exact same weapon.

We hear the rationale for Kevan's death, but wouldn't the same rational be used for Tywin's death since he also was in the process of reconciling the kingdom under Lannister and Tyrell rule?

Surely Varys had the means, the motive and certainly the opportunity to kill Tywin Lannister, and his death, whether by poison or by crossbow was already in the works before Tyrion got there. Tyrion just made everything that much easier for Varys.

You've convinced me, my dear.

[WiDMNDBAMMD]

I believe Tywin was already poisoned before Tyrion's release.

I do as well.

Even if Varys did not anticipate Jaime wanting his aide in releasing Tyrion, everything was already planned out.

Everything? Varys is going to frame Red Viper? He's dead. He frames Tyrion? He's in a dungeon. Varys was already going to release Tyrion without Jaime asking him?

Seems like if he does that then when Tyrion hears word his father is dead he'll think the Red Viper did it?

Varys' plans changed somewhat because of Tyrion's act,

The only thing that changed was he killed Kevan the same way to make it look like the Imp did it.

but in no way would have prevented Tywin's death, nor was Tyrion's release a condition of Tywin's death.

Tywin's act was "folly" Varys called it, pointless to risk capture. Tywin had to make sure. I don't believe he knew for sure that his father had been poisoned.

[Mr Hodor]

Another question for this theory

Doran says

We had ten years between us, so I had left the pools by the time he was old enough to play, but I would watch him when I came to visit Mother. He was so fierce, even as a boy. Quick as a water snake. I oft saw him topple boys much bigger than himself. He reminded me of that the day he left for King’s Landing. He swore that he would do it one more time, else I would never have let him go.

We assume that he is talking about Gregor. But at that point Tywin had decided to deliver the mountain to them. why to kill the mountain yourself. Isnt he talking about tywin?

[Stannis ftw]

Cmon guys, the demon monkey did the deed, so this question is moot :-)

I think Varys orchestrated the whole thing, from timing it so that Jaime "forced" him to rescue Tywin, to the placement of Shae, the crossbow (conveniently above a footstool) and the fact that Tywin was in the bathroom-- all of these factors = dead Tywin.

The thing that "made him do it" was Jaime´s confession, right? There´s no way Varys could have orchestrated that. If Tyrion was just released from dungeon and escorted to the ship, he wouldnt have stopped by to kill Tywin, even if he knew he could.

[Lord Damian]

I believe what I have read here. Well done

[Dolorous Nedd]

I'm confused. What is Varys motivation for killing Tywin?

It has been pretty well established that Vary's is either pro Targ or pro Blackfyre.

Applause to the OP BTW. Fabulous!

[STANN1SBARATHEON]

these interesting bits are meant to make us scratch our heads and ask "what?" but whether or not martin actually intended them to be pivitol story plot points has yet to be seen, we still have two books to go

but tywin lannister is too smart to be poisoned by anyone, thats why he's lived so long despite his enemies. only a one in a million situation like the one tyrion found himself in is the only way someone could get away with ding tywin in

Ha! "ding" gotta love those typos

"doing tywin in"

[Brienne Of Bombay]

I'm convinced Tywin was poisoned. It could very well be Varys.. Good job.

[hollowcrown]

I love this theory. Very well articulated and well written.

I'm confused. What is Varys motivation for killing Tywin?

Varys wants Cersei to rule the realm and cause chaos before/during (f)Aegon's arrival. Same reason why he kills Kevan in Dance.

[Victor227]

I don't know, Oberyn seemed pretty sure of things when he was speaking with Tyrion. The man had a plan, and that plan was to leave King's Landing with Tyrion in tow, and give Myrcella a crown. Assuming he survived killing Gregor though, his work is only half done. He wanted Tywin's head too. Everything from his idea to enticing Cersei with Dornish succession to bringing Tyrion with him to Dorne hinges on Tywin being dead.

I don't buy that Varys overheard the conversation and then poisoned Tywin because he could frame a guy who'd be walking into a life or death situation that he may not walk away from. The idea that Oberyn wouldn't use poison just because that's what would be expected of him is precisely why Widow's Blood was used. It's slow-acting. Tywin was already a dead man walking, and his insufferable pride would ensure that no one would know about his condition until he keeled over. In the meantime, Oberyn's ideal plan was to free Tyrion, collect Sansa from whatever hiding hole he had her in, and then book it with them to Dorne, where he'd have the rightful heir to Casterly Rock (also innocent in the eyes of gods and men), the heir to Winterfell (at least as everyone knew), and a queen in Myrcella. Tywin would die with them far out of reach (everyone would know and suspect Oberyn of course, but he'd just shrug his shoulders and they'd go "Oh that rascally Red Viper! He is incorrigible!").

Naturally Gregor Clegane represented a huge obstacle to that plan (rather literally), so why wouldn't Oberyn go into that fight with his main motivation of revenge at least partially complete by poisoning Tywin first? It would turn the situation into a (relative anyway) win-win.

We know that Doran was plotting to destroy Tywin and all his works, and Oberyn's plan in King's Landing fit that criteria. Kill Gregor, kill Tywin, back the monster son that Tywin always hated to inherit the West, flaunt the rest of the Seven Kingdoms' laws of succession by backing Myrcella, and then use the political force of the North, West, and Dorne to make it happen. As well, it accomplishes another one of Dorne's primary objectives, have a Martell on the throne, as Myrcella was betrothed to Trystane.

Another fun line from Doran. "We princes make our careful plans and the gods smash them all awry." (plural princes and plans) Oberyn's moves in King's Landing were yet another one of those plans, and the next logical alternative to their goals with Viserys dead, and Dany taken, then missing. Sending Quentyn off to Meereen was plan C after Oberyn failed to secure the necessary leverage to make Myrcella a real contender, and they received news of what happened in that part of the world.

So really, why wouldn't Oberyn be the poisoner in the event that Tywin was indeed poisoned and not just having a really bad case of smelly-corpse/pre-death constipation? We know he had the means, the motive and opportunity. What's more, the poison was slow-acting, and would be an insurance policy to ensure his revenge even if he lost to Clegane. He and Doran had loads of plans for what would go on -after- Tywin's death, and time would be of the essence after freeing Tyrion (as there's no way Cersei would take the embarrassment laying down. Tyrion's minutes in King's Landing would be numbered. They'd have to leave as quickly as possible.) Oberyn's plan to take Tyrion to Dorne means that he'd have to ensure Tywin's death -before- freeing him. Even assuming Tyrion would last a minute loitering around the city, Oberyn's access to Tywin would be -quickly- shut off with the snub of killing Tywin's dog, securing a confession for what happened with Ellia, and fighting for the supposed murderer of Joffrey. It would be a diplomatic nightmare, and everyone far more on guard.

So, Oberyn fits for means, motive, opportunity, and not only does his time-frame scream for a preemptive poisoning, but it also ensures that if he dies to Gregor, he still gets Tywin in the end. He could be smug about it with Tyrion for the simple reason that before anyone would even know Tywin had been poisoned, he, Tyrion, and (in his hopes, Sansa) would be halfway to Dorne.

[butterbumps!]

The thing that "made him do it" was Jaime´s confession, right? There´s no way Varys could have orchestrated that. If Tyrion was just released from dungeon and escorted to the ship, he wouldnt have stopped by to kill Tywin, even if he knew he could.

I'd think Varys was banking on Shae's being "enough" motive to pick up the crossbow, and the residual animosity between father and son to be enough to compel Tyrion up the stairs to the bedchamber.

snip

How does Oberyn fit the timeframe to poison Tywin? There seems like too much time between his death and Tywin's death.

I don't think Oberyn was planning to kill Tywin. That's not the plan that goes awry. He and Doran were seeking to start a Lannister civil war. The Martell plan was to take Tyrion and Sansa back to Dorne for counsel and to move the possibility for the Lannisters to claim the north through Sansa, to crown Myrcella, and to get Cersei and Tywin to go to war against each other over which of Cersei's children would rule. They were going to destroy Tywin, but their plan was to do it through civil war.

[Sojourner]

I like it.

[Lion of Judah]

This is no theory, I buying into this as fact because it make a lot of sense. Good job.

[Baratheon3508]

Love it! I still love the Oberyn theory but this easily makes just as much sense :bowdown:

[Thendel]

I'm still inclined to Oberyn being the poisoner, myself.

Victor227 has listed most of my arguments already, but I just want to add: Why would Varys want to frame Oberyn, and by extension the Martells? Dorne is for all intents and purposes a natural ally to Aegon's coming invasion, and throwing the Red Viper to the Lannister like a piece of red meat seems kind of pointless to that end. What would it actually accomplish?

• Create further tension between Martell and Lannister? There's rivers of bad blood between the two already - even if Oberyn had lived, Doran would back Aegon's war in a heartbeat.
  
• Kill off a troublemaker and a liability in Oberyn? Oberyn may have been unpredictable in many ways, but he was unwavering in his devotion to the memory of Elia. A man of his skills and conviction would be a great asset to Aegon's cause.
  
• Find a scapegoat for the murder? I'm fairly sure Varys had a hand or two in the way Tywin actually died, which would render the poisoning moot. And for argument's sake, even if he didn't orchestrate the setting of Tywin's room or spur Tyrion on, why not pin the poisoning on Tyrion as well? He knew that Pycelle knew that Tyrion had stolen poisons even before the grand maester testified in court. Tyrion was already being cast as a poisoner and a kinslayer, so how would it have been hard to plant a few pieces of evidence that linked Tyrion to the use of Widow's Blood once Tywin had succumbed to the poison and the autopsy had concluded the cause? In short,Tyrion could easily have been framed for the poisoning.
  

[butterbumps!]

I'm still inclined to Oberyn being the poisoner, myself.

Victor227 has listed most of my arguments already, but I just want to add: Why would Varys want to frame Oberyn, and by extension the Martells? Dorne is for all intents and purposes a natural ally to Aegon's coming invasion, and throwing the Red Viper to the Lannister like a piece of red meat seems kind of pointless to that end. What would it actually accomplish?

• Create further tension between Martell and Lannister? There's rivers of bad blood between the two already - even if Oberyn had lived, Doran would back Aegon's war in a heartbeat.
  
• Kill off a troublemaker and a liability in Oberyn? Oberyn may have been unpredictable in many ways, but he was unwavering in his devotion to the memory of Elia. A man of his skills and conviction would be a great asset to Aegon's cause.
  
• Find a scapegoat for the murder? I'm fairly sure Varys had a hand or two in the way Tywin actually died, which would render the poisoning moot. And for argument's sake, even if he didn't orchestrate the setting of Tywin's room or spur Tyrion on, why not pin the poisoning on Tyrion as well? He knew that Pycelle knew that Tyrion had stolen poisons even before the grand maester testified in court. Tyrion was already being cast as a poisoner and a kinslayer, so how would it have been hard to plant a few pieces of evidence that linked Tyrion to the use of Widow's Blood once Tywin had succumbed to the poison and the autopsy had concluded the cause? In short,Tyrion could easily have been framed for the poisoning.
  

Widow's Blood was used by Tyrion; it was dropped into Cersei's wine during dinner and the next day she was stuck to the privy. It is fast acting. Yet, at least a few days go by between the trial and Tyrion's escape. During these few days we see Tywin conducting business not on the privy, and they are all already aware of the slow-acting poison on Gregor. If Tywin was also poisoned by Oberyn, it would seem that the effects would be revealing themselves well before the night Tywin is on the loo. I don't think Varys was trying to frame Oberyn either-- I think the poison wasn't supposed to kill Tywin, but rather facilitate Tyrion's escape attempt/ remove Tywin as a liability to Aegon.

Oberyn didn't want to kill Tywin. In Tyrion X aSoS he pretty much tells Tyrion exactly what he wanted to happen: crown Myrcella so that Cersei would champion her cause, while Tywin would likely support Tommen. I think it's more likely that the Martells had planned for Joff to have an "accident" in order to enable a war of succession between Lannisters than to kill Tywin directly. They want Cersei and Tywin to split resources and wear themselves out in-fighting, which doesn't happen if Tywin is simply assassinated.

[Scipio Africanus]

First off nice job @moon-pale maiden, one of the best theories I've read around here lately.

For one thing, one reason I didn't fully buy the Oberyn theory is because Oberyn is dead significantly before Tywin's murder-- Tyrion spends quite a good bit of time in between the Oberyn-Gregor trial and his escape. That being said, the timing doesn't add up for Varys to put the blame of Oberyn for this either.

While I'm unsure who poisoned Tywin or if he was even poisoned (though the theories make compelling arguements that he was), mr. Mountain died long after Oberyn's death and Tywin's death I think. In other words, mr. Viper had some pretty hefty poisons which dragged death out for a good long while. So why would it be possible that Oberyn could develop a poison which dragged Gregor's death out for like weeks but not for Tywin?

The question is more what opportunities the Viper had to poison Tywin to begin with. Which actually makes it more compelling that Varys was the one as Varys had access to the entire Red Keep at his leisure.

He and Doran were seeking to start a Lannister civil war. The Martell plan was to take Tyrion and Sansa back to Dorne for counsel and to move the possibility for the Lannisters to claim the north through Sansa, to crown Myrcella, and to get Cersei and Tywin to go to war against each other over which of Cersei's children would rule.

First off this is the Red Viper's plan, not Doran's. Doran was banking everything on Dany as we later found out. Doran was against Oberyn going to KL from the get go IIRC.

Secondly this contradicts with Oberyn's conversation with Tyrion. Oberyn wanted vengeance and had waited long enough. Why he decided to go now is not entirely clear to me, but maybe he figured, with the realm in chaos through the war, he had a better chance at killing Elia's murderers at that point in time.

Oberyn blamed Tywin for ordering the murder of Elia and her children even though Tyrion denied it or rather sidestepped it. Seems uncharacteristic for Oberyn to ignore Tywin and play some subtle mind game which could take years to come to fruition while he could off Tywin a lot quicker. That is actually something Doran would do (if he ever got round to it) but not Oberyn.

Finally, considering Doran's intervention in Arianne's plans I'm inclined to believe Doran never sought to play the Lannisters out that way. He was always gunning for the remaining Targs IMO, especially considering his one-time letter to Ser William Darry.