Varys poisoned Tywin Lannister (a theory)

[Chatty Duelist]

Makes more sense than Oberyn.

[A wilding]

When Twyin died Aegon was not on a direct course to invade, so killing Tywin at that time didn't really have any strategic benefit.

I don't think I agree with that.

If Tywin lives, he spends AFfC consolidating the Lannister hold on the throne, as opposed to Cersei spending AFfC weakening it to the point where Aegon's invasion was possible. Varys motive in killing Kevan was largely to stop Kevan undoing the damage Cersei had caused.

[A wilding]

Oberyn wanted to be heard of speaking treason and murder. He poisoned Tywin (and made sure that the death of Tywin looks unnatural) and wanted to be charged by murder after Tywin's death. If it would have happened like this, he would again have his fight with Gregor. The Lannister cannot find a more suitable man other than Gregor in a trial by combat. This time Oberyn would be defending his innocence not Tyrion's. I think this is exactly how he planned to take his revenge. Oberyn didnot fear anything. I think given enough time, he could have poisoned more Lannisters too.

Though Oberyn did say that he intended to start his revenge by killing Gregor, in the process getting Gregor to admit that Tywin had given the orders, and then go after Tywin afterwards.

Which does feel like a more satisfying revenge than just simply poisoning Tywin - who might never even realise that he had been poisoned, still less that it was to avenge Elia.

[Mithras]

Though Oberyn did say that he intended to start his revenge by killing Gregor, in the process getting Gregor to admit that Tywin had given the orders, and then go after Tywin afterwards.

Which does feel like a more satisfying revenge than just simply poisoning Tywin - who might never even realise that he had been poisoned, still less that it was to avenge Elia.

I dont think Oberyn needed a confession to kill Tywin. 2+2=4 and Tywin is the one who commanded the brutal murder of Elia and her children.

[Roadside Rose]

I like this theory, and it makes more sense than the Oberyn poisoned Tywin one. I won't be surprised if Varys/Littlefinger turn out to be the masterminds behind most plots in KL.

[A wilding]

I dont think Oberyn needed a confession to kill Tywin. 2+2=4 and Tywin is the one who commanded the brutal murder of Elia and her children.

I agree Oberyn already thought Tywin ordered the murders (IMO correctly). The confession would be more about turning the screws on Tywin and letting him know what was coming.

[LordFirkraag]

Varys might have planted the crossbow, but not specially for Tyrion. How could he possibly have known that Tyrion would go back into the fray? Surely, from Tyrion's perspective, it was the worst thing he could do as it would have the likely result of getting him caught.

Varys might have paid off one of the servants to rearrange the room and put the crossbow in a convenient position. It's a stretch to say he put it there for Tyrion, as you'd have to be a mindreader to anticipate that turn of events.

[A wilding]

Varys might have planted the crossbow, but not specially for Tyrion. How could he possibly have known that Tyrion would go back into the fray? ...

Still, when you read the chapter, Varys is obviously steering Tyrion towards going up to confront Tywin. The main problem is more how Varys could have known that Jaime would have made that confession and so pushed Tyrion into sufficient rage as to be willing to commit patricide. Possibly Varys' plan had originally been to let slip that Shae was up there also, before that became unnecessary.

[Mithras]

Yet Lord Stark’s the one who troubles my sleep. He has the bastard, he has the book, and soon enough he’ll have the truth. And now his wife has abducted Tyrion Lannister, thanks to Littlefinger’s meddling. Lord Tywin will take that for an outrage, and Jaime has a queer affection for the Imp.

Varys knows that Jaime has a queer affection for the Imp since AGoT. So he should be expecting Jaime to do something crazy after Tyrion's conviction. Jaime waited in the chamber of Varys for a long time for him to come. I am sure Varys learned that Jaime was waiting in his chamber with a dagger and understood what Jaime had in mind. I think he had enough time to make the necessary arrangements.

ETA: Varys wanted to take the suspicion from Dorne because he wants Dorne as his ally and the time for Dorne to defy the IT have not come yet.

[Doran]: "The time is not yet come for Dorne to openly defy the Iron Throne, so we must needs return Myrcella to her mother, but I will not be accompanying her. That task will be yours, Nymeria."

Illyrio, Doran and later Tyrion told us that crowning Myrcella in Dorne would mean her death because Dorne is not powerful enough to defy the IT (yet).

That is why, Varys could not let Tywin die from poison, which would direct all the suspicion to Oberyn and Dorne.

[Northernmonkey]

Makes more sense than Oberyn.

It definitely doesn't. Oberyn has had a massive vengeance against Tywin for years, is an expect on poisons, and had lots of opportunity to poison him. It makes 100% perfect sense.

To be honest I think people are too keen to claim that Varys or Littlefinger are behind every thing that happens in the books. If Tywin was poisoned, then everything points towards Oberyn being behind it. I for one don't think GRRM puts layer upon layer of conspiracy into the books.

[A wilding]

Still Varys' fingers are already all over Tyrion's escape and his being sent to Illyrio. Varys clearly steered Tyrion into going up to confront Tywin. It seems somewhat odd that Jaime so easily coerced Varys into arranging Tyrion's escape. It is quite a coincidence that Shae happened to be in Tywin's bed. Etc, etc.

If Varys had poisoned Tywin, it would just be one more part of his scheme. Whereas, to me, Oberyn having simultaneously independently poisoned Tywin feels much more like the sort of over the top extra layer of conspiracy you are complaining of.

[Mithras]

Assume that Tyrion didnot went upstairs, Tywin's situation worsened. Pycelle diagnosed the widow's blood. In this case the one and only suspect would be Oberyn. And shit would come raining down to Dorne while the time was not ripe for them to defy the IT yet. In that case, Lannisters and Tyrells would be united against Dorne.

Oberyn poisoned Tywin during the trials and Varys made sure that Tywin didnot die from the poison. So Dorne got out of the radar of the IT.

[Clariana]

My bet is on Oberyn and possibly also QoT... Varys might well have known, even facilitated and then stepped back. The Master of spiders is mainly an enabler not a doer, why should he get his hands dirty when there are other parties more than willing to do the deed for him?It makes no sense when the two most infamous poisoners are in KL together not to suspect them....

What makes the prologue of ADWD so surprising is that for the first time we actually see Varys do the deed himself...

[DewieCox]

I read the Oberyn theory the other day and kinda thought, meh...it's possible, but doesn't seem likely. Maybe a better case could convince me, but nothingmentioned in this thread has swayed.

The Varys theory, at the very least, is a much better put together case, making it more convincing to me. To many things line up for it it to be coincidence, and Varys was definitely tempting Tyrion to head up to Tywins room.

[Good Guy Garlan]

This makes sense, I think. Tywin dying so randomly is a personal peeve, so I think he was the #1 target in both Varys' and LF's hit-lists, since he was the most competent member of the opposition

[TheNorth's1stKnight]

i don't get how robert baratheon didn't kill varys after he took the throne

[Mithras]

The Tyrells are the least likely suspects IMO. They gain NOTHING by killing Tywin but they may lose EVERYTHING. Tywin was giving them what they earned. Tywin was about to send Cersei to CR. Tywin would certainly finish the rebellion. As long as Tywin was alive, no one would dare to rebel the IT. If the Tyrells wanted to kill Tywin, they must be as mad as Cersei.

[Waylin Stark]

This is a really good theory, but I find the Oberyn poisoned Tywin theory makes more sense and has more evidence.

Oberyn clearly has the motives and the resolve. I don't think he decided to stop on his quest for vengeance with Gregor.

And for Varys positioning the crossbow for Tyrion or a little bird seems too convenient on such short notice.

Also Varys doesn't work through chaos and assassinating powerful people, that's Littlefinger's way. I think Varys only used this method during Kevan's death to frame Tyrion. And framing Tyrion or leading him to kill Tywin on such short notice seems contradictory to his role against Tyrion. Didn't he testify against Tyrion? And he hadn't planned on Tyrion escaping.

My guess is he planted the Tyrell coin after Tyrion's escape to have Cersei to distrust the Tyrells and have her think Tyrion was with them.

Also as for Oberyn saying Tywin is mortal so recklessly, it seems just like Oberyn would do.

[Nucky Thompson]

There is a third option: Varys may actually be working with Doran, which would mean that Oberyn and Varys were acting in concert. That would explain Oberyn's seeming negligence for Varys' little birds and his confidence while he was in King's Landing - as if this was the case, he would have quite the backing from the Master of Whisperers. It would also tie in with Doran being informed for the developments in the capitol, it would even make Quentyn's folly somewhat sensible, since Varys had no way of influencing Daenerys and her possession of dragons was quite the wildcard. What more subtle way to bring her back into the (Varys') fold, than by sending a brave suitor willing to cross half the world for her? And finally, in the Winds sample chapters, we learn that

Doran is sending a Sandsnake to sit on the Small Council - nothing suspicious about that, except for Varys being forced into hiding, and if this theory is true, leaving Doran without an agent in King's Landing.

And if we look from a meta-perspective, Littlefinger always had one of the Seven Kingdoms in his pocket (the Vale, which just so happens to be untouched by the war) - why wouldn't Varys have one of his own (and for it to be the other one untouched by the war)?

And Arianne's mission from the sample chapters doesn't invalidate the hypothesis above - it simply means she wasn't told all the details about her father's masterplan - it wouldn't be for the first time, would it?

[Northernmonkey]

There is a third option: Varys may actually be working with Doran, which would mean that Oberyn and Varys were acting in concert. That would explain Oberyn's seeming negligence for Varys' little birds and his confidence while he was in King's Landing - as if this was the case, he would have quite the backing from the Master of Whisperers. It would also tie in with Doran being informed for the developments in the capitol, it would even make Quentyn's folly somewhat sensible, since Varys had no way of influencing Daenerys and her possession of dragons was quite the wildcard. What more subtle way to bring her back into the (Varys') fold, than by sending a brave suitor willing to cross half the world for her? And finally, in the Winds sample chapters, we learn that

Doran is sending a Sandsnake to sit on the Small Council - nothing suspicious about that, except for Varys being forced into hiding, and if this theory is true, leaving Doran without an agent in King's Landing.

And if we look from a meta-perspective, Littlefinger always had one of the Seven Kingdoms in his pocket (the Vale, which just so happens to be untouched by the war) - why wouldn't Varys have one of his own (and for it to be the other one untouched by the war)?

And Arianne's mission from the sample chapters doesn't invalidate the hypothesis above - it simply means she wasn't told all the details about her father's masterplan - it wouldn't be for the first time, would it?

This kind of makes sense, because you would expect Varys to have some contact with Doran, because Aegon needs Dorne's support if he's going to take the throne. But Varys can't have known about Quentyn, otherwise he wouldn't have sent Aegon to meet Dany (or he would have sent him sooner).