Areo Hotah POV in prologue, will be killed by Darkstar

[brut]

U serious? Anything is possible in the series obviously, but your seriously suggesting that it was more likely a vision about Myrcella, who has no connection to grey or a dying horse, than it was about Alys Karstarck who appeared a little while later dressed in grey on a dying horse?

Yeah. Serious. In the "The Queenmaker" chapter:

The horseman on the tall grey palfrey did indeed prove to be Ser Arys, white cloak fluttering bravely as he spurred across the sand. Princes Myrcella rode pillion behind him, swaddled in a cowled robe that hid her golden curls.

This same horse is being killed by the crossbowmen during the attack:

A thrown spear took Ser Ary's mount in the flank, yet still the horse came on, staggering as he hit the gangplank..... His horse reared, and kicked a crossbowman in the face as he was trying to reload, but the other crossbows were firing, feathering the big corser with their quarrels. The bolts hit home so hard they knocked the horse sideways. His legs went out from under him and sent him crashing down the deck.

So what is this if not the dying horse? Also, Arianne is suspiciously not paying attention to Myrcella, but accounts quite vividly of what happens to the poor animal.

None of the visions are dead accurate depiction of what is actually happening. So why cannot this particular one refer to the events at Dorne?

More importantly, does anyone actually care to demonstrate how fAria's arrival is actually more important than what happened to Myrcella in terms of the repercussions that these events caused? And by doing so convincingly argue that the vision of a girl on a horse is that of the former and not the latter?

[aryagonnakill]

Yeah. Serious. In the "The Queenmaker" chapter:

The horseman on the tall grey palfrey did indeed prove to be Ser Arys, white cloak fluttering bravely as he spurred across the sand. Princes Myrcella rode pillion behind him, swaddled in a cowled robe that hid her golden curls.

This same horse is being killed by the crossbowmen during the attack:

A thrown spear took Ser Ary's mount in the flank, yet still the horse came on, staggering as he hit the gangplank..... His horse reared, and kicked a crossbowman in the face as he was trying to reload, but the other crossbows were firing, feathering the big corser with their quarrels. The bolts hit home so hard they knocked the horse sideways. His legs went out from under him and sent him crashing down the deck.

So what is this if not the dying horse? Also, Arianne is suspiciously not paying attention to Myrcella, but accounts quite vividly of what happens to the poor animal.

None of the visions are dead accurate depiction of what is actually happening. So why cannot this particular one refer to the events at Dorne?

More importantly, does anyone actually care to demonstrate how fAria's arrival is actually more important than what happened to Myrcella in terms of the repercussions that these events caused? And by doing so convincingly argue that the vision of a girl on a horse is that of the former and not the latter?

I apologize if I was condescending, but I maintain that your reaching really far. I am not suggesting it had anything to do with Jeyne Poole I'm suggesting it was Alys Karstark because she came right to Mel, even tho she came there for Jon, and because she revealed the Karstark plot to Jon who told it to Stannis, and because she was wearing grey and her horse was dying, and because when Mel got the vision she was asking for something to earn Jon's trust. Your talking about why would she get a vision of her, but your reasoning for why she would have a vision of Myrcella was pure conjecture. Darkstar is allied with the COTF? Ok again it's all possible but its complete conjecture, and I just feel that in this case the obvious answer is the right one since it wouldn't make a difference to the story at all whether it was about Alys, Jeyne, the real Arya, or Myrcella so I see no reason to make the mental jumps you made.

[Black Wolf Smith]

Gives some sense of foreshadowing. All this talk of dawn, terrors of the night, girl, horse. So, what if she misinterprets (as she usually does) the signs and the "grey girl" is actually the vision of Myrcella, not quasi-Arya. There is certainly some mortal danger involved from which the horse saves the girl in question.

Also, if Darkstar refers to himself as "of the night" can we extend this reference to him being the terror of the night? Cultist of the Unspoken God? Which would extend into Mel mistaking the Old Gods for the actual enemy of Rhllor while she should be looking entirely elsewhere...

What have you been smoking?

[brut]

What have you been smoking?

A strooong crack pot, mate :)

[brut]

I apologize if I was condescending, but I maintain that your reaching really far. I am not suggesting it had anything to do with Jeyne Poole I'm suggesting it was Alys Karstark because she came right to Mel, even tho she came there for Jon, and because she revealed the Karstark plot to Jon who told it to Stannis, and because she was wearing grey and her horse was dying, and because when Mel got the vision she was asking for something to earn Jon's trust. Your talking about why would she get a vision of her, but your reasoning for why she would have a vision of Myrcella was pure conjecture. Darkstar is allied with the COTF? Ok again it's all possible but its complete conjecture, and I just feel that in this case the obvious answer is the right one since it wouldn't make a difference to the story at all whether it was about Alys, Jeyne, the real Arya, or Myrcella so I see no reason to make the mental jumps you made.

I do agree with you that some assumptions have to be made following the easiest rout. And the visions may actually be relating to the arrival of Alys, so I don't necessarily refute this established wisdom. But in the light of Darkstar's claim that he is of the night (see what I did there?), maybe we should not rule out another crack potty twist. After all, the scene of Myrcella's ordeal is highly climatic, while Arys' arrival seems almost like a bummer - well, with the exception that he lets Jon into the Karstark plot. To the extent that such happenings in Dorne have certain importance not only on the political scale, but also considering the religious clashes, and warning signals could have been sent as a vision to Mel.

Also, thing is that Darkstar may not be associated with the CoTF at all. What I was implying is that he is in a rather darker alliance. Which could mean that Mel's assumption: The Great Other = Old Gods (tTEC, Bran, CoTF, etc) may be wrong. I love our Heresies here as much as any other reader, but one thing where I don't agree with them is Mel's perception that she has to oppose the Old Gods because they are the Great Other. Finally, all this build up behind Darkstar and mysticism surrounding him have to lead somewhere, and if not darkness, then what is it?

[aryagonnakill]

I do agree with you that some assumptions have to be made following the easiest rout. And the visions may actually be relating to the arrival of Alys, so I don't necessarily refute this established wisdom. But in the light of Darkstar's claim that he is of the night (see what I did there?), maybe we should not rule out another crack potty twist. After all, the scene of Myrcella's ordeal is highly climatic, while Arys' arrival seems almost like a bummer - well, with the exception that he lets Jon into the Karstark plot. To the extent that such happenings in Dorne have certain importance not only on the political scale, but also considering the religious clashes, and warning signals could have been sent as a vision to Mel.

Also, thing is that Darkstar may not be associated with the CoTF at all. What I was implying is that he is in a rather darker alliance. Which could mean that Mel's assumption: The Great Other = Old Gods (tTEC, Bran, CoTF, etc) may be wrong. I love our Heresies here as much as any other reader, but one thing where I don't agree with them is Mel's perception that she has to oppose the Old Gods because they are the Great Other. Finally, all this build up behind Darkstar and mysticism surrounding him have to lead somewhere, and if not darkness, then what is it?

I look for Darkstars mystery in his birth, or perhaps his involvement with Doran. We could get a nasty little shock about Doran actually being more ruthless then we have been led to believe.

[Maester Domeric]

If were playing by Occam's rules then Alys is most likely the "grey girl on a dying horse". However since given what we know about Martin's style it's plausible that Alys is a red herring. But Myrcella is a a bit of a stretch. If its anyone besides Alys I think its Shireen. My reasoning:

1) Most obvious is the greyscale, which satisfies the first part. (A Grey Girl)

2) I think the symbolism of a horse is quite obvious. Its a means of travelling, of achieving things. Shireen fate is ultimately reliant of Stannis and his army inorder for her to be anything more than the homely daughter of a rebel king. Considering how poorly Stannis's host is doing on their march to Winterfell, the trap thats waiting him with the Umbers, and his general weakness as of the end of ADWD (hes constantly being described as gaunt and pale, sunken eyes etc. etc. ) I think he fulfills the second part (Dying horse)

as to why Mellisandre misreads it, shes pretty much blinded by her conviction that Stannis is Azor Ahai, which given the inconsistencies concerning "Lightbringer" I think there is more than enough evidence for us to doubt that hes genuine. Tis only a theory, but far more plausible than Myrcella is the grey girl.

but on topic. I don't think Areo could be killed so easily. We know so little about Dorans schemes (and lets face it Areo is more of Dorans strong arm than anything else) Its more likely they're luring Balon Swann into a trap, where Swann distracted by his pursuit of Darkstar won't ever see the axe that will cleave himin twain from behind. Bringing up Areo's KG slaying count to 2.

[The Faceless Bard]

Ill speculate ... balon POV - with him wondering why this white cloak business is not as glamorous as he would have thought

[Maester2chainz]

Strictly from a storytelling standpoint, Areo is needed to tell us what happens in Dorne. I could picture Balon getting killed and Darkstar and the sandsnake teaming up to capture areo, but areo must stay alive otherwise the readers will be totally lost. There are no new POV chapters either. So until Areo reunites with the other people from Dorne he has to be alive.

[alienarea]

Strictly from a storytelling standpoint, Areo is needed to tell us what happens in Dorne. I could picture Balon getting killed and Darkstar and the sandsnake teaming up to capture areo, but areo must stay alive otherwise the readers will be totally lost. There are no new POV chapters either. So until Areo reunites with the other people from Dorne he has to be alive.

We could do without Dorne for a book. Worked fine with AGoT.

[Slayer of Lies]

Strictly from a storytelling standpoint, Areo is needed to tell us what happens in Dorne. I could picture Balon getting killed and Darkstar and the sandsnake teaming up to capture areo, but areo must stay alive otherwise the readers will be totally lost. There are no new POV chapters either. So until Areo reunites with the other people from Dorne he has to be alive.

As you allude to, Areo is the POV window into Obara's and Balon Swann's pursuit of Darkstar.

The Watcher, ADWD chapter 40:

"Ser Balon is a guest beneath my roof. He has eaten of my bread and salt. I will not do him harm. No. We will travel to the Water Gardens, where he will hear Myrcella's story and send a raven to his queen. The girl will ask him to hunt down the man who hurt her. If he is the man I judge, Swann will not be able to refuse. Obara, you will lead him to High Hermitage to beard Darkstar in his den."

So if they kill Darkstar, great, but I think it just as likely (if not more so) that Areo will die, and Darkstar will show up in someone else’s POV later.

We could do without Dorne for a book. Worked fine with AGoT.

High Hermitage isn’t in Sunspear, but it’s north of Starfall, and still in Dorne, so I think we’ll get at least one POV to close this out, though it’s likely to be a regular chapter, methinks, and not a prologue.

Meanwhile, Arianne has her own POV, and Nym’s and Tyene’s arcs – at least initially – will most likely be told through Cersei’s POV after their arrival to KL.

[aryagonnakill]

Areo dying and Darkstar popping up in another person's POV is certainly possible. Building both Balon and Areo up as warriors only to have them both killed by Darkstar would really build Darkstar up.

[Death by Cupcakes]

Areo dying and Darkstar popping up in another person's POV is certainly possible. Building both Balon and Areo up as warriors only to have them both killed by Darkstar would really build Darkstar up.

And yet he failed to kill a defenseless child. Would Barristan or Jaime or The Hound have failed? I think not.

The last one who did something similar got killed by a squire with confidence problems.

No, so far I am not impressed with Darkstars abilities as a warrior, unlike Areo, who seems to be one of the top fighters in Westeros.

[Borsabil]

And yet he failed to kill a defenseless child. Would Barristan or Jaime or The Hound have failed? I think not.

The last one who did something similar got killed by a squire with confidence problems.

No, so far I am not impressed with Darkstars abilities as a warrior, unlike Areo, who seems to be one of the top fighters in Westeros.

Yep I'm in total agreement. Aero is a total badass, what we know of Darkstar is that he tried to kill a defenseless child, failed, and then ran away. Not exactly impressive. I'm assuming GRRM has written the character for some reason, but so far his purpose eludes me.

[alienarea]

Yep I'm in total agreement. Aero is a total badass, what we know of Darkstar is that he tried to kill a defenseless child, failed, and then ran away. Not exactly impressive. I'm assuming GRRM has written the character for some reason, but so far his purpose eludes me.

So we will be very surprised when he kills Areo Hotah with one swift move.

[KingHodorTargaryen]

Anyone else think Darkstar is Doran's secret man? Just someone to pin the blame on if something goes wrong, but also someone who he can support and keep alive? If Myrcella had been killed, it would have satisfied Doran's revenge desire and he could have pinned the blame on Darkstar, who in turn could hide until Dany comes, and would be well rewarded with his service.

[aryagonnakill]

And yet he failed to kill a defenseless child. Would Barristan or Jaime or The Hound have failed? I think not.

The last one who did something similar got killed by a squire with confidence problems.

No, so far I am not impressed with Darkstars abilities as a warrior, unlike Areo, who seems to be one of the top fighters in Westeros.

Yep I'm in total agreement. Aero is a total badass, what we know of Darkstar is that he tried to kill a defenseless child, failed, and then ran away. Not exactly impressive. I'm assuming GRRM has written the character for some reason, but so far his purpose eludes me.

You should both read/ try to read as much as you can of the arriane chapters out. Your feelings about Darkstar may change. also as Kinghodor pointed out it seems very plausible that it was his plan to wound her all along whether he worked for Doran or not, which I believe. If you examine what has happened since the wounding, Balon Swann has arrived and has not told Cersei anything, and is now going off threw Dorne with 2 or Dorans most trusted warriors to fight yet another warrior. Doran kept Balon occupied as long as he could with feasts and now he could be keeping him occupied by this. He also gains a situation where Balon can be killed and it is also not his fault, just like Myrcella. So he gains time, keeps his position secret, and kills Cersei's most physically capable living human.

[Borsabil]

You should both read/ try to read as much as you can of the arriane chapters out. Your feelings about Darkstar may change. also as Kinghodor pointed out it seems very plausible that it was his plan to wound her all along whether he worked for Doran or not, which I believe. If you examine what has happened since the wounding, Balon Swann has arrived and has not told Cersei anything, and is now going off threw Dorne with 2 or Dorans most trusted warriors to fight yet another warrior. Doran kept Balon occupied as long as he could with feasts and now he could be keeping him occupied by this. He also gains a situation where Balon can be killed and it is also not his fault, just like Myrcella. So he gains time, keeps his position secret, and kills Cersei's most physically capable living human.

Doran is not the type of man who would deliberately maime a child for some short term political advantage. From what we know of him he is a decent enough guy, who eskews needless violence, he's also loves children seeing them as completely innocent. I've seen zero evidence in the text demostrating that Darkstar is plotting with Doran, beyond that he had an informer who told him of the plot.

[aryagonnakill]

Doran is not the type of man who would deliberately maime a child for some short term political advantage. From what we know of him he is a decent enough guy, who eskews needless violence, he's also loves children seeing them as completely innocent. I've seen zero evidence in the text demostrating that Darkstar is plotting with Doran, beyond that he had an informer who told him of the plot.

I just posted the evidence, its the logical series of events that flows from it, and as you said someone betraying Arrianes plans. Everyone can think what they want, but if the only point you can make in contradiction is that you don't think a fictional character who you didn't write would do that, then I don't think you have an actual argument.

[KingHodorTargaryen]

Doran is not the type of man who would deliberately maime a child for some short term political advantage. From what we know of him he is a decent enough guy, who eskews needless violence, he's also loves children seeing them as completely innocent. I've seen zero evidence in the text demostrating that Darkstar is plotting with Doran, beyond that he had an informer who told him of the plot.

We have seen how he acts in front of people. We know he is a cautious man, and wants to keep his hands clean. He would not discuss his greatest secret to anyone he has talked to, including Hotah, and the Sandsnakes. He didn't discuss it with Arianne because she would ruin everything because Darkstar was the one who she thinks betrayed her.