Grand Tyrell Conspiracy Theory

[Michael Jon Snow]

I hadn't read this thread in months and I come back to find KJT has posted

[quote name='Jon Targaryen' post='1165055' date='Dec 24 2007, 17.36']I didn't read the whole thread; it seemed to quickly degenerate into sniping over largely irrelevant details. But I did MJS's initial post and some of the first responses. It is nice as a theory but I disagree with it for the following reasons:

1. Aurane Waters - I do not think he is a "rose." He is the bastard of Driftmark. If there is anyone he would be loyal to it is Stannis. I think he is just loyal to himself and is going to become a pirate. Besides, is the sharing of a cup with Ellinor and his being alert when news of the Ironborn come in the only evidence for him to be a Tyrell player? As someone said in one of the initial replies, that is not great evidence.[/quote]
None of the things I mentioned are truly proof. They are more patterns that could be consistent with a secondary plot that Martin can't show us directly at this point. Aurane Waters is loyal to himself and whomever can give him the best future. There are lots of other explanations that make as much or more sense for Aurane to be alert that night. But his being alert is also consistent with him being in a Tyrell Conspiracy panning session after word came in and before Cersei was roused. Until we know the truth, we can't say for sure. But if it does turn out that the Tyrells met with members of the council before waking Cersie, his being alert will be pointed out as indications of Martins brilliant foreshadowing.

[quote name='Jon Targaryen' post='1165055' date='Dec 24 2007, 17.36']2. Loras heading to Dragonstone - I could see the Tyrells trying to get Loras away from the court so that Cersei could not use him in a trial. It's very complicated but I could see it. But there is no way the Tyrells could envision: 1) Euron knowing about Dany's dragons, 2) Euron killing Balon, 3) Euron winning the kingsmoot on the basis of conquering all of Westeros, and 4) Euron deciding to attack the Shield Islands first. I mean, there has to be some backup plan to get Loras out. Otherwise, if the Tyrells wanted that, the Ironborn attack just fell into their lap. It's possible but it just seems unlikely.[/quote]

Completely agree. This was opportunism. They get word that the Euron has attacked and they know that Cersei won't release their fleet until Dragonstone is taken. This kills two birds with one stone. Definately not pre planned.

[quote name='Jon Targaryen' post='1165055' date='Dec 24 2007, 17.36']3. Loras being burned - I think this happened. It fits with Loras's character. Whether there is a conspiracy or not the Shield Islands are being attacked. Loras wants to go kill Ironborn and will battle rashly to get Dragonstone out of the way. It fits that he would charge in and get burned. Plus, I don't buy that Aurane is lying and Cersei did not hear anything from anyone else. Unless Qyburn is also working for the Tyrells and silenced the news that Loras didn't get burned from getting to Cersei's ears. But Qyburn seems loyal and has reason to be loyal to Cersei.[/quote]
How would Cersei get word? There has been no ship traffic between Dragonstone and Kingslanding. There have been no birds. How would communication get from there to here? Ce

Everyone who knows what happened is either on ship en-route to the Reach, or is still on Dragonstone.

rsei never recalls any times she hears any other information about what happens on Dragonstone. Again this doesn't prove anything, but it is consistent with one lie being the basis for all of the misinformation in KL.

Yes, it fits with Loras to go charging in at his own peril. But it also fits with Loras to be cunning and deceptive (mare in heat) If we found out that he used some trick to win the island, that will be as much in character for him as recklessly endangering himself.

[quote name='Jon Targaryen' post='1165055' date='Dec 24 2007, 17.36']4. Margaery's attitude in the Great Sept of Baelor - She just seemed genuinely distraught and panicked to me, not like someone acting. When she cussed out Cersei I didn't believe she was faking. Then again, she seemed distraught when Joff died and she probably had a part in that.[/quote]
This all goes to how good an actress she is. But when you compare her level of stress after a night in jail with Cersei's the contrast is striking. Again, this isn't proof, just an observation.

[quote name='Jon Targaryen' post='1165055' date='Dec 24 2007, 17.36']5. High Septon - I do not think this guy would agree to pose Margaery as being imprisoned and lie like that. He is too much of a radical, religious extremist. He would not be open to manipulation like that, imo.[/quote]
He manipulated Cersei into rearming the faith. What makes you think he is above manipulation, especially of a sinner.

[quote name='Jon Targaryen' post='1165055' date='Dec 24 2007, 17.36']6. Maragery's maidenhead - I think it is broken from riding.[/quote]
Could be. Might very well be. But that gets me back to my original quandary. If Marge is not intact, how did the High Septon know so quickly that Osney was lying?

[quote name='Jon Targaryen' post='1165055' date='Dec 24 2007, 17.36']There are some things, however, that I feel are unexplained or curious.
One is why Pycelle is getting the tea for Margaery. He still seems to be loyal to the Lannister cause as he called for Kevan at the end of AFFC. I don't know about this one.
Taena. I think she is either spying for Varys, the Tyrells or is out for herself. But even if she is spying for the Tyrells, I don't think the rest of the theory holds up.

All in all, a well-thought out theory that deserves praise for its construction. But like everything that begins with "Grand" and ends with "Theory" (see GUCT), I think it is doomed to be wrong. When a theory has to be called "Grand" there are usually too many events explained by one group or person, in this case the Tyrells (with some probable non-Tyrell players roped in to be Tyrell players in the theory) and in the case of GUCT, LF.[/quote]

I chose to call it Grand in homage to the GUCT. And in part because I am very aware that the paper this is drawn on is the flimsiest. This theory will either completely implode (like the GUCT did) when the truth is known, or will be the most brilliant piece of deduction ever posted on these boards. In either case it has been an absolute blast to come up with and defend.

[Jon Targaryen]

MMS,

High Septon - I do not believe The High Septon manipulated Cersei wrt rearming the Faith. They negotiated. He had something she wanted - a blessing for Tommen and she had something he wanted - the ability to repeal laws. Cersei knew what she was offering. Perhaps not the implications, but the basic idea, yes. Lying to Cersei about Margaery is a step beyond, IMO.

The High Septon questioning Osney is for the reason I think he said. Osney appeared too eager to show his guilt. It was too suspicious.

Aurane traveled to KL on a ship, manned by a crew. They would know. Qyburn would have heard and reported, if not then, when he talked to Cersei in her final chapter. I do not believe Qyburn is a rose. Cersei is his sugarmomma.

[Michael Jon Snow]

[quote name='Jon Targaryen' post='1166362' date='Dec 26 2007, 12.29']MMS,

High Septon - I do not believe The High Septon manipulated Cersei wrt rearming the Faith. They negotiated. He had something she wanted - a blessing for Tommen and she had something he wanted - the ability to repeal laws. Cersei knew what she was offering. Perhaps not the implications, but the basic idea, yes. Lying to Cersei about Margaery is a step beyond, IMO.

The High Septon questioning Osney is for the reason I think he said. Osney appeared too eager to show his guilt. It was too suspicious.

Aurane traveled to KL on a ship, manned by a crew. They would know. Qyburn would have heard and reported, if not then, when he talked to Cersei in her final chapter. I do not believe Qyburn is a rose. Cersei is his sugarmomma.[/quote]
I have known to many manipulative religious fanatics for this to be an issue for me. I see the High Septon as someone who would be willing to do anything to advance his agenda, including deceiving the Queen. But I read the exchange between him and Cersei re:blessing/debt as being one where the HS clearly manipulated Cersei. We see everything thru her eyes, and prior to that discussion, she never considers the compromise she made that day. That indicates to me that it was the HS that directed her to that outcome.

But we all read these scenes and see them a little different.

Only if that crew came ashore. Dragonstone is close enough that a ship would not require restock, so it may have never moored. Waters could have come ashore in a dingy.

Oh and I agree that Qyburn is not a rose. 100% with you on that.

[Ser Spidey]

MJS, you like long posts, don't you?

[the silent speaker]

[quote]I do not believe Qyburn is a rose. Cersei is his sugarmomma.[/quote]
His and Lancel's and Osney Kettleblack's and Moon Boy's for all we know... :)

[Lord Varys]

The High Septon clearly manipulated Cersei. The key of the whole thing is to ask why the High Septon refused to bless King Tommen in the first place ;-). And Cersei's steps an her way to the conclusion that the Faith (who de facto already had itself rearmed, a deed, everyone but Cersei would have considered and insult and treason), are not her own, as one must realize.

It's the High Septon, who appears to be mindful of Maegor's and Jaehaerys's laws, although everything he wants is to remove these laws. And he makes Cersei making exactly that suggestion. If that's not manipulation, I don't know what manipulation is ;-).

[Lord O' Bones]

What was GUCT again?

[Teri]

[quote name='Lord O' Bones' post='1166863' date='Dec 26 2007, 19.30']What was GUCT again?[/quote]

Are you asking what it stands for, or what the points of it were?

Grand Unified Conspiracy Theory, but I don't remember the details.

[Lord O' Bones]

[quote name='Teri' post='1166867' date='Dec 26 2007, 19.32']Grand Unified Conspiracy Theory, but I don't remember the details.[/quote]
Doesn't ring a bell. Hmm. How long has it been since I was in one of the book forums?

[Jon Targaryen]

Before ASOS. Basically LF masterminded everything, including Bran's assassin.

[Jon Targaryen]

[quote name='Lord Varys' post='1166844' date='Dec 26 2007, 19.08']The High Septon clearly manipulated Cersei.[/quote]
Not in my eyes.

LF manipulated Catelyn and Ned with his lie regarding the dagger then did it again when he lied about Tyrion to Sansa. Tyrion manipulated Symon Silver Tongue, leading him to believe he would recieve a bribe when all he would receive was death. Varys manipulated Drogo into attacking the Seven Kingdoms when he brought the news of Dany's pregnancy to the small council. He also manipulated Robert and the small council as well. Walder Frey manipulated the Starks by making Roslin, a pretty maid, the bride for Edmure.

In this case, Cersei comes with a need, to get the Faith's blessing for Tommen. The High Septon has a need, the repeal of Maegor's laws. He gets what he wants; she gets what she wants. She gets more than what she intended at the outset in fact as the Faith also forgives the debt to the Crown.

The main point is, even if you consider this exchange to be manipulation to be on par with my examples in the second paragraph, it is not on the level of the grand deception it would be to hold Margaery if she were not a maiden. [i]That[/i] would be on par with LF, Tyrion, Varys and Walder while, imo, Cersei and the High Septon bargaining is not.

[tzanth]

I only read the first few pages. The OP is an interesting and well written theory which caused me to reexamine my thoughts about several characters, but generally I can't give it much credence. It's biggest problem is that it doesn't account for personal agency. Many of the OP's central points involved specific individuals manipulating the flow of events and information (such as the attack on dragonstone)... what it doesn't take into account is the fact that the world of westeros is made up of millions of individuals who are constantly looking out for their own interests. A conspiracy which relies on specific controlling of pre-planned events simply isn't very likely to work on a scale which involves dozens, if not hundreds or thousands of people. It's certainly possible to influence events in a general sense, but the Tyrell conspiracy assumes that the Tyrells are able to predict and manipulate the actions of Cersei and others in a precise way which is simply unrealistic. Also, it assumes that many supposed Tyrell loyalists are acting as a unified group, when IMO people are more likely to act on their individual agendas first and those of their corporate group second. Finally, most of the circumstances attributed to the Tyrell conspiracy could easily also be explained by isolated individuals acting in accordance with their own interests. I think occams razor would suggest that a grand conspiricy is not behind every aspect of Cersie's downfall.

[Lord Varys]

After my recent reread of AFfC, it appears more likely to me, that Aurane Waters should be able to control the information flow from Dragonstone to King's Landing. It was stated in an earlier Cersei chapter, that Aurane's men are completely his men - Cersei let him, and him alone, choose them.
As he can rely on them, when he leaves with the whole fleet after Cersei is arrested, it's possible, that none of his men betrayed him, if he was feeding Cersei wrong information.

As Varys is no longer the Master of Whisperers, it's likely that Qyburn had no man of his own among Aurane's men (Varys certainly would have had one), and therefore Cersei would not learn the truth via Qyburn, who appears to be her most loyal servant.

[Swordfish]

[quote name='Anathematizer' post='279283' date='May 5 2006, 15.41']If that were true, why would the Tyrells lie about the boiling oil then? It's a lot harder to pretend that Loras was grieviously burned than it is for them to pretend that he was wounded by arrows and swords to the point of severe injury.[/quote]


it strikes me as wishful thinking more than anything. We don't want him to be badly injured, therefor we will try and explain it away.

I think he's burned, and will probably die. Although the parallels with the hound are sort of interesting, or how he'd react to eventual dragonfire if he survived.

This to me is the biggest travesty of the split of the books. That we get spoiled on certain characters fates.

[Guest Other-in-law]

It's actually kind of amazing that the High Septon would even try to withhold the blessing from Tommen, considering he's [i]the only King in Westeros that worships the Seven[/i]. Who's he going to bless instead? Rh'llorite Stannis? Drowned God following Ironmen? He doesn't have much choice there, as Cersei could have forcefully pointed out if she was smarter.

Unless the HS knows that Dany is on the horizon, which his comment about Aegon the Conqueror could indicate. But then why let Cersei buy out the debt for a restoration of rights that Dany probably wouldn't recognise or uphold?

[Jon Targaryen]

[quote name='Other-in-law' post='1182316' date='Jan 8 2008, 15.29']It's actually kind of amazing that the High Septon would even try to withhold the blessing from Tommen, considering he's [i]the only King in Westeros that worships the Seven[/i]. Who's he going to bless instead? Rh'llorite Stannis? Drowned God following Ironmen? He doesn't have much choice there, as Cersei could have forcefully pointed out if she was smarter.[/quote]
Good point. There are also the few Northmen loyal to Robb's memory that worship the Old Gods.

But the High Septon wanted something and I guess he lucked out or was smart to hold out with Cersei.

[Loras]

I think that the High Septon is a loose cannon in terms of the political arrangement of "A Feast For Crows". It really doesn't make sense to me that the Tyrells - who want to establish themselves as the key power behind the Iron Throne (presumably) would want to ally themselves with the High Septon who wants to make the church a power similar or greater to that of the throne.

I don't know if any of you guys watched the historically inaccurate but otherwise satisfying "The Tudors", but I'd imagine that the situation there with the throne answering to the papacy is a situation which the High Septon is striving towards. If the Tyrells helped the High Septon to rearm the throne it isn't like they could just take his rights to arms away - the church is just too powerful; as represented with the countless thoughts about there being too many sparrows in the city.

Neither do I think for one minute that the High Septon would agree to keep Margeary as his prison in order to lure Cersei into his trap - unless he had no intention of letting Margeary go. The High Septon now holds a lot of power - over the Tyrells as their only link to the Iron Throne is held prisoner by the faith, and the Throne itself as the Queen Reagent is a prisoner of the faith - his sparrows are preaching in the streets and the smallfolk have seen what lords have done to their city and lives...

I think that both the Tyrells and the Lannisters have played into the hands of the faith - but Kevan Lannister is going to be a lot less likely to deal with the faith in order to save Cersei than Mace Tyrell.

[Jon Targaryen]

I think Kevan is actually more likely to try to negotiate with the Faith, not out of loyalty to Cersei as Cersei but as legal head of House Lannister. Mace is more likely to bluster and shout IMO and will have to be corraled by Mathis and Paxter.

[Elrick]

The High Septon can be brought down, I hope the holier than thou Septon gets burned to smitherines by the dragons or get thrown into the flames by Mel. He strikes me as a fanatic and a very dangerous individual. I have no doubt that he'd seek to usurp the iron throne and sieze power.

To put bluntly I don't think that the Tyrells are working with the church.

[urizen]

[quote name='Jon Targaryen' post='1188348' date='Jan 13 2008, 22.09']I think Kevan is actually more likely to try to negotiate with the Faith, not out of loyalty to Cersei as Cersei but as legal head of House Lannister. Mace is more likely to bluster and shout IMO and will have to be corraled by Mathis and Paxter.[/quote]

I doubt Paxter will be doing much corraling with regards to Mace's actions. In the little we have seen of Paxter, mainly through Tyrion's eyes, he comes of as an asskissing yes-man who agrees with Mace in everything.