Grand Tyrell Conspiracy Theory

[Croc Blanc]

Quite interesting read, and I love conspiracies. This series is quite full of them, however they all make sense in the end and do not really have key people playing out of character. This is why I have a problem with this one when you say that the clergy would be deceiving people , even the sinner Cersei, to achieve their ends. If the septa says she examined Margaery and her maidenhead is broken, then we should assume that is truth. The other problem I have, and it concerns your main assumption, is that given how much Margaery loves riding, her maidenhead being intact is a far fetch.

[Dragon Madness]

Wow, what a heated topic. I guess my 2 cents worth in this discussion would be about Aurane Waters.

Waters, Called the Bastard of Driftmark. Bastard relation of Lord Monford Velaryon.
Aurane joined the army of Lord Stannis Baratheon when Stannis declared himself king and called his banners after the death of Robert Baratheon. He took part in the battle for King's Landing and was captured and forced to swear fealty to King Joffrey Baratheon. (ACOK 66)

Velaryon, Lord of Driftmark.
Lord Monford came to Dragonstone when Lord Stannis Baratheon delcared himself king and called his banners. (ACOK 1) He died during Stannis Baratheon's failed assault on King's Landing. (ASOS 26)

If i had to guess... i would surmise he might be for Stannis deep in his heart still.

What is really interesting to me however is the Alaynes last chapter in AFFC when she is talking to Myranda on the decent from the Eyrie.

Sansa asks if there is other news, and Myranda tells her they have learned that Riverrun yielded, but Storm's End and Dragonstone still hold out.

Now, Riverrun fell after Dragonstone, so if one event is known, the other should be as well. Either the Vale is not getting reliable news, or Dragonstone did not really fall as Aurane claimed.

Anyway, just thought i would throw those interesting tidbits out there.

[Howlin' Howland]

Myranda's statement is "we've had other birds. The war goes on, everywhere but here. Riverrun has yielded, but Dragonstone and Storm's End still hold for Lord Stannis." pg 618 affc hardcover American.

By my timeline Riverrun falls at least six days after Waters makes his report to Cersie (probably much later).

By itself it means nothing, Myranda might have better spies at Riverrun than KL. But it is another line of evidence that suggests Dragonstone has not fallen by the end of affc.

Also, The Lord of Driftmark is six years old and in Stannis' service. Probably Waters' half brother or nephew. And Waters was taken captive with Stannis' army after the battle of Blackwater Bay. He could be with the Tyrells or Stannis, or on his own. One of the more interesting subplots.

[israfel070]

I wholeheartedly agree with the original post. I have believed this independently, although I didn't do all the research work, so you're definitely not crazy. I don't think Loras is so badly wounded, if he is at all.

[K26dp]

Some idle speculation...

The main problem with the theory I have doesn't involve the mechanics of it, which seem completely plausible. It's with the Tyrell's motivation. There's got to be more to it than just "I want to see a Tyrell grandson on the Iron Throne".

I suspect the Tyrells are much more in tune with world events than Cersei; that they may know of the dragons and Danaerys. They may even suspect that if push comes to shove, that their old enemy, Dorne, would back a new Targaryen rule.

Now the Iron Throne is being held by an eight-year-old and the ruling regent is a deluded narcissist. Of the other major houses:

Stark: scattered to the winds, no longer in control of their own lands
Greyjoy: in rebellion
Lannister: nominally in charge, but mortally weakened by the death of Tywin
Arryn: in worse shape than Lannister with Jon dead and "Sweetrobin" on the throne
Tully: under siege, out of power
Martell: possibly manuvering the Targaryens back into power

What to do? They could throw in with the Targ conspirators. Or they could try to make a play for the Iron Throne themselves, and try to organize a defense of Westeros.

[Ceomyr]

It's an excellent theory, well laid out, with clear motives for almost all the actors and it has a lot of evidence to show it may be possible.

The Tyrells have demonstrated all sorts of trickiness, and even better for the most part they don't seem tricky or deceptive at all. They've so far succeeded in coming out smelling like roses.

I can easily believe that Olena is nearby in hiding, all the better to save herself incase her murder of Joffrey is discovered and all the better to keep advising her family in secret.

Taena is almost definitely a plant and double agent working for the Tyrells.

Aurane is a clever liar, good book checking on discovering his connection to the Tyrells, but you do some great book checking in figuring out he met with Cersei alone and could decieve her so utterly about anything that happened at Dragonstone.

Actually I think Grand Maester Pycelle has been degraded and insulted so much by Cersei that he no longer feels safe being loyal solely to the Lannisters. He might have found a better friend in the Tyrells. I think he's also heard the prophecy, hasn't he? Hmm.

Loras strikes me as someone similar to Theon in the sense that they can both be rude, prickly, impatient, but clever. I can imagine him following his family and coming up with a clever trick to avoid sacrificing himself, but I can also imagine him rushing into combat in a daring gambit.

I'm not sure about the septa lying directly to the Queen about Maegery's virginity. I think that part isn't fully fleshed out in your original post here (and I may have missed a later post talking about it). There's also the matter of Maegery being kept a mess in a locked room in the sept. If she was investigated and found to be a virgin why would they keep her there?

Also I'm not sure the Tyrells could have done all of this, a fair portion must be coincidence. The Tyrells in their assassination of Joffrey were able to steer the king over to Tyrion and use Sansa to poison the king. So unless they were truly targeting Tyrion as a second person to remove (by framing him), they clearly didn't have the ability to take out any targets of higher priority (Tywin?). In the end Tyrion was steered to take out Tywin too, and further cementing his apparent guilt in the first case, so things have gone very well for the Tyrells. Very well indeed.

[Nighthawk]

An all arround good based Theory.

I specially agree on the fact about Loras not being dying (although i might be wrong).
Now about theory to remove Cersei off the seat of power i can see it being true but don't really know if every detail that you apointed is part of the plan or just coincidences, kets not forget that Cersei is a bit of an impulsive person.

[wildlingraider]

Well met. This is my first ever post. so here are my thoughts:

1) The 2000 Lannister left Kings Landing with Redwyne

2) No-one could buy the High Sparrow

3) Taena is certainly a spy, possibly for more than one employer

4) It is bizzare that the news of Dragonstone falling came by boat instead of raven. Everything is done with ravens. When the nights watch went ranging beyond the wall they took ravens, I think that kings landing should have sent a few to Dragonstone.

Here is the quote: " 'Dragonstone is yours'.......'I know Tommen willl be pleased as well. This will mean we can release lord Redwynes fleet, and drive the Ironmen from the shields.' The news from the reach seemed to grow more dire with every raven."

It is actually mentioned in the next line. The news from the reach all comes via raven, but not from Dragonstone. Georgy couldn't give much more of a hint.

5) Dragonstone is vital for the Wall brigade because it is an obsidian mine. It is vital to the other narrative (pun intended) that they get some of the stuff before abandoning the castle.

6) No-one, Tyrell or anyone else, could buy Kevan Lannister, he has "All the gold of Castlery Rock"

7) And all that gold is right between The Iron Islands and The Shield Islands.

So my conclsion is that Kevan is panicked by the Ironmen so close to the Lannister stronghold. Cersie refuses to send Redwyne to sort this out. Since Lannister troops report to Kevan not Cersie, he decides to take matters into his own hands.
When he discusses this with the Tyrells, who are also panicked, they tell him they have a plan to remove Cersie, which ordinarily he would oppose, but due to the Ironmen threat he goes along with. This conviniently allows him to take power and maintain he was doing it for the realm. Misleading her about Dragonstone, he ships his troops back to the west without them even going near the place.
Meanwhile in KL the Tyrells have been feeding Cersie false info and asking Pycelle for moon tea (which they poor down the drain, or have Taena slip Cersie but thats for another thread) for quite some time, and are confident she will make an accusation in court, which they can disprove.
What they didn't expect was that the accusations would be made via the Faith and that Marge would be arrested.

Yes its all speculation

:smoking: oh and Aurane, Well he's Aegon and he's taken his ships to bring back Dany's army.

[Guest Other-in-law]

[quote name='wildlingraider' post='1749407' date='Apr 8 2009, 10.11']4) It is bizzare that the news of Dragonstone falling came by boat instead of raven. Everything is done with ravens. When the nights watch went ranging beyond the wall they took ravens, I think that kings landing should have sent a few to Dragonstone.[/quote]
Mormont took raven cages because he was venturing out into the wilderness, where there are no maesters or rookeries. The only way to send ravens from somewhere like that is to bring them yourself. This is not the case with war in Westeros itself; we don't ever see any of armies bring raven cages along because it's assumed that they can send ravens from whichever castles they capture or stop at as guests or allies. Only that wouldn't be possible at Dragonstone, since Stannis had already sent all 117 of the Dragonstone ravens out with his twincest announcement, but the Tyrells wouldn't necessarily have thought of that.

If there is any indication of messages by raven between Paxter's siege camp and KL, then this point is valid, but I don't think there is. It's worth noting that the news of Jaime's capture at Riverrun in aGoT came not by raven from his three separate siege camps (which two of which were defeated in tuen, the third fled) but bya hard-riding Crakehall courier. The Redwyne fleet was continuously ferrying men and supplies across the Blackwater anyway, so they would have had a fairly steady means of communication even without ravens.
[quote]6) No-one, Tyrell or anyone else, could buy Kevan Lannister, he has "All the gold of Castlery Rock"[/quote]
He has no such thing. Lords Tytos and Tywin both provided him with ample funds, but in no way, shape, of form has landless Kevan ever had "All the gold of Castlery Rock".

[wildlingraider]

[quote name='Other-in-law' post='1749724' date='Apr 8 2009, 13.25']He has no such thing. Lords Tytos and Tywin both provided him with ample funds, but in no way, shape, of form has landless Kevan ever had "All the gold of Castlery Rock".[/quote]


OK so who has the gold? I thought he was next Lannister in line. The next viable person I found in the appendix is
-Lady Ermesande Hayford, Tyreks child wife. Seems the kids are taking over.

[Guest Other-in-law]

[quote name='wildlingraider' post='1749745' date='Apr 8 2009, 14.48']OK so who has the gold? I thought he was next Lannister in line.[/quote]
Not at all. Tywin still has a living daughter and grandchildren who come before Kevan, even discounting his sons for their separate reasons. But that's just theoretically speaking, in actual practice, the Lannister succession doesn't seem to have been definitively decided yet...a new lord or lady has yet to set up shop at the Rock.

ETA: aFfC appendix..."-CERSEI, twin to Jaime, now Lady of Casterly Rock"

[wildlingraider]

[quote name='Other-in-law' post='1749755' date='Apr 8 2009, 13.58']ETA: aFfC appendix..."-CERSEI, twin to Jaime, now Lady of Casterly Rock"[/quote]


Yep. I've got to give you that point.
But I maintain the impression that the troops report to Kevan, he was the one we saw on the battlefield with Tywin. Therefor he is the only one capable of pulling the wool over Cersies eyes about (not) invading Dragonstone. Except Jaime but we know he wasn't involved.
And he couldn't be bought buy Martell even if he hasn't got "all the gold". In fact this gives him more reason to move against Cersie. He wasn't coerced or bribed.

So I'm sticking with my theory.

[Aplomb]

As disgusted as Kevan is with Cersei, I don't see him conspiring against her with another Great House against her. He's still a Lannister partisan, and wouldn't want to contribute to a "house divided against itself" situation, especially against his beloved brother's daughter. But that's not to say he will take any action to support her. I think it's more likely he brings his army home to the West, defends against any threats from the Iron Islands or elsewhere, and simply ignores orders from Cersei or entreaties from any other source to involve his army beyond simple defense of Lannister lands. He'll passively wait out the current mess and see what develops.

[Guest Other-in-law]

[quote name='Aplomb' post='1749816' date='Apr 8 2009, 15.59']As disgusted as Kevan is with Cersei, I don't see him conspiring against her with another Great House against her.[/quote]
Yup, to all of that. Kevan is sick and tired of the politics at the moment, he just wants to go and grieve his brother. He would have done his duty to order the realm if Cersei had gotten out of the way, but he hardly seems to be in the mood for scheming.

[Dracaerys]

Um, I pretty much thought this from the first read through. Granted, you found much more evidence than I had bothered to find or in some cases even noticed. Good job.

For me it was really just a continuation of the plotting from aSoS. We know that Olenna and the Tyrells were the ones to kill Joff while Tyrion was handed the blame and it seemed likely to me that killing one monster would be insufficient as a stopping point for the plots. I think Olenna has little to no faith in Cersei though she did feel that Tywin would have been a good leader. Once he was out of the picture there was little left to do but find a way to depose Cersei. Tommen still has enough potential to go either way on the good king/bad king scale. Given the right mentorship he could be just what the Tyrells want in their king. I doubt that Littlefinger is still involved in the plotting though, just due to the distance between himself and the events at hand coupled with the methods of transferring information, but I also think Olenna is more than skilled in intrigue.

As for Loras and his injuries. Again I point out the methods of information transfer. It's not like there're internet news sources in Westeros. If you want to deliver a message you have few options: send a bird, send a messenger, or let word of mouth travel across the land. Birds get shot down or lost, messengers can be killed or lies can be written, and word of mouth has always been like playing telephone in grade school. The army has not returned from Dragonstone, so there aren't a large amount of corroborating witnesses regardless of how many people might have seen the siege. Most of the fighters, save for highborn knights and lords, can't read or write so there's little chance that multiple letters have arrived in KL. And the one report we get is from a single messenger to the Queen. He could pass on info that the stone dragons came to life and no one would be the wiser until much later.

All in all, I think your analysis holds enough water that we just may find out it's true.

[Dracaerys]

[quote name='Aplomb' post='1749816' date='Apr 8 2009, 13.59']As disgusted as Kevan is with Cersei, I don't see him conspiring against her with another Great House against her. He's still a Lannister partisan, and wouldn't want to contribute to a "house divided against itself" situation, especially against his beloved brother's daughter.[/quote]


I'm not convinced that Kevan wouldn't stand up against Cersei. If Lancel has told him anything about their relations, or if it becomes a known fact that Cersei was instrumental in Lancel's declining health, Kevan may feel that he's already been attacked. In that case the house already divided and he's only reacting. Reading Cersei's chapters to me really felt like being in the mind of a paranoid schizophrenic and if others in Westeros feel she's crazy they may rebel. I really think Kevan was loyal to "Tywin" more than to "Lannister" and the daughter is definitely not the father, regardless of how much she thinks she is. I agree though that Kevan won't support her though I'm more inclined to think he may draw arms against her. :)

[Chalky]

[quote name='Dracaerys' post='1751694' date='Apr 10 2009, 13.18']For me it was really just a continuation of the plotting from aSoS. We know that Olenna and the Tyrells were the ones to kill Joff while Tyrion was handed the blame and it seemed likely to me that killing one monster would be insufficient as a stopping point for the plots. I think Olenna has little to no faith in Cersei though she did feel that Tywin would have been a good leader. Once he was out of the picture there was little left to do but find a way to depose Cersei. Tommen still has enough potential to go either way on the good king/bad king scale. Given the right mentorship he could be just what the Tyrells want in their king. I doubt that Littlefinger is still involved in the plotting though, just due to the distance between himself and the events at hand coupled with the methods of transferring information, but I also think Olenna is more than skilled in intrigue.[/quote]
We don't know for certain that the Tyrells did this. People are putting too much trust in Littlefinger's word here. He told Ser Dontos to give Sansa the hairnet after all. The Tyrells may simply be LF's back up catspaws

[Dracaerys]

From what I recall of the wedding scene, and someone please correct me if I'm blatantly wrong here, Olenna removed the tears of Lys from Sansa's hairnet herself and the next thing we know it's in the cup. That was what I got out of that section of action. That's a bit more than just Littlefinger's word. It's a pretty active role in the plot.

[Ser Hodor]

I'm bumping this for those who might not have seen it. I think it's the most interesting thread on this forum.

Great analysis.

[Manderly`s Personal Chef]

I think that you are seeing dwarves in every shadow (hehe had to use it). Im not saying that this theory is not even close to truth. I actually believe most of it. You could even try to point somewhere that it could be Garlan who poisoned Joffrey. Or not.