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Grand Tyrell Conspiracy Theory


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Snake

We don't know where Taena is, but she would have a hard time getting far from KL with Mace's Army & Randyl's Army closing in on the city. And we only know that Cersei is told she is gone, she might be hidden somewhere to be brought out later. What we know for sure is that she is not available to help Cersei. We don't know much else.

(I think that she left KL to fill Mace in on what is happening and will return with Mace)

Actually I think the Tyrells would be very happy working with Kevan. In Kevan's conversation with Cersei he advises her to give Tyrells positions of authority and to work with the Tyrells and not against them. Kevan might be just the sort of ally the Tyrells need. So yes, I think the goal was to bring Cersei down so Kevan could step in.

Whitebull.

SoS invalidated the GUCT and perhaps a future book with put the kabosh on this theory as well. We can only wait and see.

Kbeyerle

That coin was put there by Varys (or planted by Qyburn) to make it look to Cersei that the Tyrells paid to have Tyrion freed. There is much debate about Varys plans around that time, but it fits with his known desire to sow chaos throughout the 7 kingdoms.

And your last question is exactly my point. There has been no corroboration of the information provided by Waters. No raven, no other ship. Single point of information that everyone can trace back to Cersei. And its Cersei’s word against his as to what Waters told her.

If Loras is fine and leading the fleet to defend the Reach, Waters could claim that his report to Cersei was that Dragonstone was taken and that he was taking the fleet south. It’s his word against hers and she doesn’t seem very credible in many peoples eyes, given the Osney confession.

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The point about that House Gardener coin though, is that Taena told Cersei that the QoT had a stash of these coins. Telling Cersei this only really makes sense if Taena, or the person behind her, had that coin planted in the jailor's cell in the first place. The idea was obviously to make Cersei connect the two.

This is not watertight, but it is an indication that Taena was possibly working for Varys, not the Tyells.

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mjs,

Qyburn tells Cersei that Taena and her husband have gone home and he would be in the know. Also, there's the Blue Bard who continues to tell how he has had sex with Maergery even though he's being whipped.

And recall that Kevan believed that Cersei should use appointments on the council to "buy" Tyrell bannermen and that Mace would be dumb enough to thank her for it. From that, and the fact that it's Lannister men running the realm right now, I don't think Kevan's appointment as regent will give the Tyrells anything to be happy about.

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Wildling, you bring up a very good point. If I’m wrong (and I am never wrong) and Taena turns out to be a Varys pawn instead of Tyrell one, then that will be one of the I-told-you-so clues that we will all point to and claim to have seen all along. However, it is possible that the two are unrelated.

Consider that Qyburn tells Cersei of the coin in the second Cersei chapter and she is being attended by Senelle at the time, so Senelle may have known about the coin. Senelle is exposed (framed) as a Tyrell agent by Taena in order to win Cersei’s confidence. If Senelle was passing secrets to the Tyrells then they may know about the coin. And certainly Varys knows about the coin.

This proves nothing though. Taena could have mentioned the coin as an agent for Varys or as an agent for the Tyrells. My assertion is that the goal of the Tyrells is to get Cersei to make a public fool of herself by openly attacking a supposed ally so that A) Cersei looses political face & B) the Tyrells have public cause to push for a different Regent/Hand. Making Cersei mistrust the Tyrells suits their purpose as well.

Snake,

Qyburn tells her that they have left the city and that he assumes that they have gone home. How would he know where they went once they left the city gates? And unless he was watching the gates as they left (this is possible), can he even be sure that they are gone?

And they would have to travel over land because Mace’s Army is down the Stormroad(whatever the roar to Storm’s End is called) and Garlan’s Army is down the Roseroad. So if they leave by road they would have to cross paths with a Tyrell Army. (I had forgotten about Garlan’s Army till I was looking back to answer the above)

Tyrell bannerman in a few positions is better than what they have now. Kevan has indicated that he would at least work with the Tyrells rather than against them. Cersei made it very clear that the alliance with the Tyrells was a formality but that she would never work with them and she has very openly opposed them in ways that she thought were so clever. (Tell them I appointed you yesterday, etc.)

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I think you've identified a lot of the moving parts of a Tyrell conspiracy, but I think the endgame is more improvised than the Grand Unified Tyrell Conspiracy Theory supposes. First, the conspirators:

  • Margaery Tyrell - This young mistress of conspiracy has been well-trained by her grandmother. She keeps friendly witnesses with her at all times, including in bed. Her trips to the forest are obviously trips to meet assets and/or co-conspirators, but at least her enemies haven't learned who she's meeting. She knows that Cersei is her enemy. She's doing a marvelous job of developing Tommen as an asset. But, it's not clear how she means to strike at Cersei.
  • Ollena Tyrell - This Grand Master conspirator had to remove herself from KL following Joffrey's death. It's probably her messengers that are meeting Margaery in the woods.
  • Mace Tyrell - He's an asset of Ollena's, but he's not in on anything.
  • Garth the Gross - He's likewise an ignorant asset of Ollena's.
  • Kevan Lannister - While he's a Lannister, he's not fully under Cersei's control. Kevan is willing to work with the Tyrells on the up and up, but nothing below boards is going on there. He's not in Ollena's camp by any means.
  • Taena Merryweather - She's obviously an agent. Almost certainly, she belongs to Ollena. The various things she's done for Cersei seem to be designed to gain Cersei's confidence. For example, it's plausible that she's not really trying to find Tyrion (the proof will be in the Tyrion chapters in aDwD); then again, what do the Tyrells care for Tyrion? At any rate, Cersei lets Taena hear all kinds of great intel. Taena also feeds Cersei disinformation, such as Pycelle visiting Margaery regularly.
  • Orton Merryweather - He's probably an unwitting asset of Taena's.
  • Aurane Waters - He could be an asset of Margaery's.
  • Qyborn - Are we certain that he belongs to anyone?
  • Osney Kettleblack - He's an agent of Cersei's and knows at least part of what she intends. Certainly, Margaery and Ollena have anticipated an accusation of infidelity against Margaery. We know this from the witnesses Margaery keeps around her. When Osney shows up, we can bet that Margaery identifies him as a threat and as an agent of Cersei's.
  • Pycelle - Cersei thinks he's her creature, but either the Tyrells have coopted him or they have deceived him into believing the moon tea story.
  • Loras - Loras is an asset of Ollena/Margaery's. He may not know all their plans, particularly given his scattered state of mind post-Renly. It seems highly likely that his injuries are being exaggerated to keep him out of KL, but it's a stretch to suppose that Ollena had calculated out all the trial-by-combat permutations beforehand.
  • the High Septon/Sparrow - It seems unlikely that he's Ollena's asset. We know he's not Cersei's. I suspect that he is a wild card, acting entirely on his own.

That puts three people on the inside of the Tyrell conspiracy (Ollena, Margaery, and Taena), using three open assets (Loras, Mace, Garth) and only three hidden assets (Taena, Orton, Aurane). That's small enough to be manageable.

At this point the Tyrell plot consists only of spying on Cersei and looking for a way to get her into the kind of trouble that would strip her of power. . . . The rest of the Tyrell plot consists of getting Cersei to make an overt move against Marge and specifically against Marge’s chastity, and if her maidenhead is still intact, these charges can easily be proven false.
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Ned Sand,

I love the way you think! Will you be my new best friend? I agree with your assessment of the people involved in almost every detail.

That's the part that I don't think Ollena planned. As has been pointed out, putting Margaery into the High Sparrow's power is dangerous. Still, once it started happening, I think Margaery rolled with it very well. The fact that Taena also helps back Cersei into a corner suggests that Taena knows the Tyrell plan to discredit Cersei in a trial. It's possible that the High Sparrow is also acting on the Tyrell's behalf by backing Cersei into a corner, but I'm not certain of that. What influence could the Tyrells have over him?
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:agree: :agree: :agree: :agree: :agree: :agree: :agree: :agree:

Exactly! Of course they could not know EVERYTHING in advance. Cersei did some pretty mind boggeling things, but they caught on to her early (Amazing considering Cersei hid her feelings so cunningly) and took immediate precautions. From there on it was a hidden war.

I still am not sure exactly how the loyalty of many players go, but many were pawns and the HS was the unexpected Ace in the Hole. Being a blatent fanatic, he can be easily manipulated to do exactly what they want. He is most likely not a concious ally but when you know exactly how he, a fanatic, will react you can certianally set things in motion so that he will do exactly what you want.

The only way that this can be a sure thing for the Tyrells though, is if Marg is indeed intact. If not, they probably have that covered as well, but it is a very dangerous game to be walking such a narrow edge.

Considering how many people "Certified" Marg before she married Joffery, I think that it is most likely the case. Joffery definitely did not have time to do anything, and Tommen is most likely too young so from that point of view, she should be OK. Also, since the Tyrells quickly saw that Cersei was not all that friendly to them shortly after Joffery's death, I am sure that the QoT let Marg know that she better stay "pure" if she valued her life. For Marg to do anything at that point would have been stupid to the Nth degree. Therefore not likely.

Marg IMHO is truely a maid. That said, she could order Moon Tea every day of the week and twice on Sunday and not have to worry.

The HS must be well aware of her condition and only says otherwise to catch Cersei, who he knows killed the previous HS. He is a fanatic, he would never let her get away with that and he will probably "punish" himself for the lie. Something that he really enjoys anyway.

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Nice post Ned Sand.

I wanted to add something after reading the last few posts.

Everyone seems to be focused on Kevan -- true he's been invited to assume the regency by Pycelle and whoever else is on the council but the true key is Jaime.

Everyone should be asking WHAT WILL JAIME LANNISTER DO?

1. He has the army. Kevan gave the number of men he could have following his banner. What was it 1000?

2. Jaime had Qyburn/Cercei's letter burned but that really doesn't mean anything. It's a classic GRRM cliffhanger. Personally, with the Tyrell's converging on KL, I think he has to go there if only to protect Tommen's interests.

3. Olenna is clearly the "mastermind" but she's back at Highgarden. "Bag of Wind" Mace is the one who's going to be at KL screaming for his daughter. He proved to be fairly pliable (eg. agreeing to the Cersei/Willas match until his mother got involved) without Olenna around so it's going to be really interesting to see what happens.

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I also fail to see how any Tyrell courtier could have exonerated Sansa after she was caught wearing a hairnet of poison pills, one of which had just killed the king of Westeros, and when she had an embarrassment of motives for wanting him dead.
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Same back at you. BTW, you may be amused to know that I will be in the vicinity of Grand Rapids over Christmas. I should warn you, however, that my House has worshiped the Scarlet Nut for generations. We are still deciding whether to disown the family member who married a Bronco and moved to MI. I wonder what our words should be? 'sic semper wolverines'? Nah.

Substantively, why do audiences (and some writers) always think that the conspiracy is vast? :rolleyes: A good conspiracy works best if few people are really 'in on it'. Those conspirators need minions, but the minions don't need to know much of anything. :mellow: (You're not in the market for a minion, BTW, are you?)

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As stated elsewhere I don't think that Margs oath to Joff is concrete unil the consumation. Not that that matters, murder is murder. Marg is calculating and smart, and I wish Sansa had more time to spend with her, she could have learned a thing or two about politics.

I still think that Marg is the queen from Maggi the Mogg(not sure if thats the right name) in lanisport. Other than Danny how many queens do we have? Surely not Jeyne or Selyse.

A lot of you seem to think that Margs MH is still intact, but I don't see how. Taena mentioned the rideing which Marg does a lot, but surely Renly was not ignorant to the fact that he must consumate the marriage. Regardless of his prefferences, he did the deed at least once.

My point is that the absence of her MH does not condemn her. So the HS questions her on it and all she has to say is that she was married once before, and widowed. Surely that is enough of an excuse.

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  • 3 months later...

When we first meet Taena she is among the Tyrells at the funeral. She tells Cersei that she is using her influence in the free cities to try to capture Tyrion. This endears her to Cersei. ....... Her offer to capture Tyrion(pg105) and her outing of Senelle(pg 180) convince Cersei of her loyalty and get Taena and her husband Orton into Cersei’s inner circle.
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"...The next bit of info about all of this comes when Taena & Cersei go to visit the High Septon. Cersei is going to negotiate for the “blessing†for Tommen. On the way there Cersei grills Taena about the state of Marge’s maidenhead. Taena assures Cersei that it must be broken. Either by horseback riding, Renly or perhaps even Loras..."

I thought there was some humor hidden in Cersei's recalling common "lore". Earlier she makes a comment to Jamie about "Lord Plumm was much too dead to sire a child" which Jamie doesn't understand at all. But in this case I think Cersei misunderstood just like she wouldn't believe her father was sexing Tyrions whore, even with her dead naked body on his bed.

The quote I think has been misunderstood by Cersei (and alot of readers too) something to the effect that "A lord's daughter was more like to give her maidenhood to a horse than a husband, it was said..."

I think it was meant literally as more noble daughters fornicate with horses than go to their wedding bed a maiden. Not meaning that many actually fornicate with horses but than almost none go to their wedding bed a virgin. I'm just a man and don't know if its true of not if a maiden can loose her maidenhead just by riding a horse but judging from the noble ladies we've seen so far (with the exception of Arrya and Sansa perhaps) they seem more likely to have lost their virginity to their brother, cousins, bastard half brothers, or horse (by beastiality) than to their husband. I think that's what the quote meant.

Forgive me if I'm being too vicious.

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