Why do some people think Aegon is fake, v.3

[Suzanna Stormborn]

I still like the dragon has three heads theory that says it is one person (THE dragon) with three aspects. Most likely Jon/Dragon/Wolf, if the theory holds, as opposed to three different people entirely. Reading the D&E stuff seems to indicate that Dragon in this context might very well mean Targaryen, not a literal dragon.

I do think Aegon is a Blackfyre, based on the stuff already discussed and just because I think it would be sort of awesome if Aegon sits the IT and everyone is all happy to have the wars ended and who they think is Rhaegar's son on the throne and then here comes Dany all blood and fire about it, actually turning into a usurper in the eyes of the masses(even though we know that Aegon is false). Oh, the irony.

Well yeah but Dany is already currently riding a dragon. So she is def one of the three heads, unless your theory is correct and she has 3 metaphorical heads.

[MaxV]

Septa Lemore is Ashara, we know via Selmy that someone violated her at Harrenhal, her family puts out her death-by-tower-leap while she heads east to hide the shame of her illegitimate pregnancy, and X number of years later Tyrion runs into the group.

If Ashara got pregnant, then by who? Given the baby's Targ-ness, it had to be a Targ (unless she found some Lys way over there in Westeros and Aerys was old and mad). And the only Targ who could do that was Rhaegar. Could Rhaegar be Aegon's father then?

[MaxV]

People point to Aerys forcing violently having sex with his wife to call him a rapist. In these times he was claiming his marital rights, albeit violently. There is no evidence that Aerys was a serial rapist. We just know of him having sex with his wife.

Aerys was at Harrenhal to keep on eye on Rhaegar, nothing more. His KG followed him every step of the way. We would know something about Aerys doing this from Barristan.

There's this thing called marital rape. At least in real world remember husbands can't "claiming his marital rights, albeit violently," should u ever get married.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

There's this thing called marital rape. At least in real world remember husbands can't "claiming his marital rights, albeit violently," should u ever get married.

I'm fully aware of that Max. I was speaking only to the medieval period and this particular book. My objective is to dispel the Aerys is Tyrion's father by way of raping Joanna Lannister theory. In no way am I condoning Aery's actions.

[CrowsBeforeHoes]

First post so I'll try to make it quick. Part of me wants to believe Aegon is real to carry on the legacy of the ever capable Rhaegar, (which Jon Snow might carry on anyway, but I digress) but another part recognizes the validity of the argument that Aegon is fake. I thought that Varys during RR did not have sufficient time or foresight to make the switch, as how could even he predict that both Rhaegar would be defeated and killed on the Trident and that enemies would quickly gain access to the Red Keep and assasinate the royal family members there. He had no reason to doubt Aerys would need heed his advice. Also a yet pregnant Rhaella (who could've possibly produced another male heir) and Viserys were sent safely to Dragonstone already. Why would he feel the need to send away so much of the royal family? Despite this point, which I consider the most important, I still want Aegon to be king, whether he is real or not.

Varys is right in that he is the best man for the job. Dany would make a great Queen because she has a soft heart, but has become too foreign for my taste. I imagine her just flying over and rescuing everyone and then going back to rule an empire in Essos. Jon Snow would be fine, if circumstances made him available and trueborn. Stannis is a just and capable man but his religion and lack of heirs make him unacceptable to me. And who really wants Tommen to stay there..

I apologize for the length, but I thought I covered important points.

[Tini]

Stannis doesn't lack an heir. Stannis has an heir - Shireen. And he doesn't really have any religion - I think he is an atheist at heart. ADWD shows that he is willing to work with other religions, too, if it gets him what he wants. Dany's Meereen experience indicates that a soft heart alone doesn't make a good ruler. I don't know if Jon would make a good king, but I would certainly hope that he brings better qualification to the job than that he is trueborn. Aerys was trueborn. Cersei is trueborn. Neither was or is fit to rule. Robb thought Jon fit to rule even though Jon was bastard-born, and intended to make him his heir.

Varys knew that KL wasn't safe. Everybody did. That is why Rhaella and Viserys were sent away, to safety. Viserys was third in line for the Iron Throne, after Rhaegar and Aegon. Rhaella's unborn child was even farther down in the succession, behind Rhaegar, Aegon, Viserys, and their as yet unborn children. If King's Landing was too dangerous for Viserys and Rhaella, it was too dangerous for Aegon.

Jaime tells us that the only reason that Elia of Dorne and her children had to remain in King's Landing was Aerys' paranoia - Aerys believed that Dorne would turn on him if he didn't keep them by his side. They tried to make Aerys see reason right until the end. Varys knew Aerys very well. He would have realized early on that there was nothing they could do to make Aerys change his mind. If Varys was in favor of sending Aerys' heirs to safety, he had lots of time to work out a plan. Aegon was more important than Rhaenys, obviously, because Targaryen succession barely acknowledged girls. Elia of Dorne wasn't part of the succession at all. Rhaegar's death made Aegon even more important, it made Aegon the crown prince.

I don't know if Aegon is real or fake but I think Varys will be in for a disappointment. Varys thinks that Aegon will be a good ruler because he has been taught to understand commoners. Nothing I have seen of Aegon so far indicates that he really understands how ordinary people think - he always knew he was different, he always got special treatment. His temper tantrum when losing at Cyvasse shows that he hasn't learned yet how to deal with disappointment. Did his teachers always let him win?

The best rulers I have seen so far are Tywin Lannister as Hand of the King / Warden of the West, and Eddard Stark as lord of Winterfell. If understanding a commoner's viewpoint is vital for being a good ruler, the only character qualified to rule is Davos Seaworth. None of them were ever considered for the job.

[Tini]

When I think about Aegon (baby Aegon, that is, the original), I always wonder about Elia of Dorne and Rhaenys. If there was a baby switch, Aerys might not have noticed but Elia would have known. She must have been involved. It is even possible that she came up with the plan, not Varys.

She couldn't leave because Aerys would have noted her absence. He might have noted his granddaugter's absence as well. Still, I think it is possible that Elia (and Varys) underestimated the danger she and Rhaenys were in. If the rebels won, the little crown prince's life was forfeit. He had to go. Elia, however, was not part of the Targaryen succession. She was a princess of House Martell, a sister of the Prince of Dorne, and maybe she thought that would keep her safe - her death would enrage Dorne, and a new king would think twice about pissing off Dorne. That reasoning doesn't work for Rhaenys Targaryen, though. But Rhaenys' claim to the Iron Throne could be seen as a valuable asset: a new king could have legitimized his rule by marrying Rhaenys. (Or he could have married her to his heir, with very much the same effect.)

It's unlikely that the idea would ever have occurred to Robert Baratheon. It might have occurred to Jon Arryn, though. And it might have occurred to Tywin, whose plans to make his daughter queen had been thwarted by a Princess of Dorne once already. So he sent Gregor Clegane to make sure it didn't happen again. Tywin gave the kill order - I think he was only surprised by the viciousness with which it was executed.

Maybe there was no baby switch. I am not even sure that Aegon's identity really matters. I just don't believe that he is a Blackfyre. If Aegon is fake and not some random boy from a slave market, he might still be Rhaegar's son - or his brother. If Rhaegar abducted (or eloped with) Lyanna, he may have done the same thing with other women. Jon Arryn kept track of Robert Baratheon's bastards. Maybe Varys kept track of Aerys' and Rhaegar's bastards.

[CrowsBeforeHoes]

Stannis doesn't lack an heir. Stannis has an heir - Shireen. And he doesn't really have any religion - I think he is an atheist at heart. ADWD shows that he is willing to work with other religions, too, if it gets him what he wants. Dany's Meereen experience indicates that a soft heart alone doesn't make a good ruler. I don't know if Jon would make a good king, but I would certainly hope that he brings better qualification to the job than that he is trueborn. Aerys was trueborn. Cersei is trueborn. Neither was or is fit to rule. Robb thought Jon fit to rule even though Jon was bastard-born, and intended to make him his heir.

Varys knew that KL wasn't safe. Everybody did. That is why Rhaella and Viserys were sent away, to safety. Viserys was third in line for the Iron Throne, after Rhaegar and Aegon. Rhaella's unborn child was even farther down in the succession, behind Rhaegar, Aegon, Viserys, and their as yet unborn children. If King's Landing was too dangerous for Viserys and Rhaella, it was too dangerous for Aegon.

Jaime tells us that the only reason that Elia of Dorne and her children had to remain in King's Landing was Aerys' paranoia - Aerys believed that Dorne would turn on him if he didn't keep them by his side. They tried to make Aerys see reason right until the end. Varys knew Aerys very well. He would have realized early on that there was nothing they could do to make Aerys change his mind. If Varys was in favor of sending Aerys' heirs to safety, he had lots of time to work out a plan. Aegon was more important than Rhaenys, obviously, because Targaryen succession barely acknowledged girls. Elia of Dorne wasn't part of the succession at all. Rhaegar's death made Aegon even more important, it made Aegon the crown prince.

I don't know if Aegon is real or fake but I think Varys will be in for a disappointment. Varys thinks that Aegon will be a good ruler because he has been taught to understand commoners. Nothing I have seen of Aegon so far indicates that he really understands how ordinary people think - he always knew he was different, he always got special treatment. His temper tantrum when losing at Cyvasse shows that he hasn't learned yet how to deal with disappointment. Did his teachers always let him win?

Very good points. I did realize Shireen, but i constantly dismiss her as irrelevant, whether it is because she is a woman and could only pass on a female line or that the gregscale could return and kill her at any time. Stannis' cold relationship with his wife leads me to believe that he will not produce any further legitimate heirs. So my assesment of Stannis' lack of an heir is more of that his heir will either die before succeeding or not produce any heirs of her own, thus ending his line. This would be compared to the other possible rulers who are mostly young and have not married yet so still have plenty of time to produce and raise their heir.

As for his religion I shouldn't have to discuss this long. Whether you consider him a faithful servant of Rhllor or not, he will be judged by his subjects on the acts he has committed and condoned. He burned the seven on dragonstone, the weirwoods at storm's end, along with various people. He constantly relies on the foreign Melisandre and her powers. Davos was right when the people will look on this aspect of Stannis as foreign, because they will.

That is a diffierent way of looking at Varys' preservation of Aegon. Very interesting. I had simply looked at it like 'Well if everyone in KL dies then there will be someone left to succeed..' but priortizing by line of succession makes a lot more sense. I also never took into account the political value of Rhaenys, which is intriguing to consider.

I like Aegon because of his extensive education first off. I think you cannot completely judge his character from the outburst after the cyvasse game alome. His initiative with the Golden Company, the initiation of Duckfield into his Kingsguard, and his intended leadership of the siege of Storm's End show that he has at least developed and/or is developing leadership skills. Aegon is obviously not some spoiled little brat like Tommen. I think the lesson Tyrion taught him during the cyvasse game was something he may not have fully considered beforehand, if at all. Tyrion caused him to question his faith in everyone he has trusted to that point. Connington made a good point somewhere in one of his POV chapters when he elaborates on Aegon's recent development and how some distrust is good, but too much can lead to Aerys. Maybe his tutors were somewhat afraid to make him paranoid before. But this might contrast with part of Varys' speech in the epilogue, talking abouf Aegon being afraid, hungry, and hunted. Aegon obviously has aways to go before he is ideal king material, but I consider where he is now a lot better than anyone else in the running.

Also, when I said trueborn I more of meant Rhaegar's son. That was incorrect to reference it that way, I apologize for any confusion. It would be nice if Rhaegar and Lyanna somehow got married and he was literally trueborn, but I mostly just meant if he had any claim to the throne in the first place before he is considered.

[DarkHaunter62]

Why do people think he's fake?

It all boils down to ''The Mummers Dragon''.

Couldn't that simply refer to the fact that he hid his true identity/pretended to be someone else, like a mummer, and like everyone else in his little band (esp. Connington and Lemore)?

[sumant30]

If Ashara got pregnant, then by who? Given the baby's Targ-ness, it had to be a Targ (unless she found some Lys way over there in Westeros and Aerys was old and mad). And the only Targ who could do that was Rhaegar. Could Rhaegar be Aegon's father then?

I don't remember anything in the books which refers to targness of the baby which Ashara has what is the basis for this theory??

Stannis doesn't lack an heir. Stannis has an heir - Shireen. And he doesn't really have any religion - I think he is an atheist at heart. ADWD shows that he is willing to work with other religions, too, if it gets him what he wants. Dany's Meereen experience indicates that a soft heart alone doesn't make a good ruler. I don't know if Jon would make a good king, but I would certainly hope that he brings better qualification to the job than that he is trueborn. Aerys was trueborn. Cersei is trueborn. Neither was or is fit to rule. Robb thought Jon fit to rule even though Jon was bastard-born, and intended to make him his heir.

Varys knew that KL wasn't safe. Everybody did. That is why Rhaella and Viserys were sent away, to safety. Viserys was third in line for the Iron Throne, after Rhaegar and Aegon. Rhaella's unborn child was even farther down in the succession, behind Rhaegar, Aegon, Viserys, and their as yet unborn children. If King's Landing was too dangerous for Viserys and Rhaella, it was too dangerous for Aegon.

Jaime tells us that the only reason that Elia of Dorne and her children had to remain in King's Landing was Aerys' paranoia - Aerys believed that Dorne would turn on him if he didn't keep them by his side. They tried to make Aerys see reason right until the end. Varys knew Aerys very well. He would have realized early on that there was nothing they could do to make Aerys change his mind. If Varys was in favor of sending Aerys' heirs to safety, he had lots of time to work out a plan. Aegon was more important than Rhaenys, obviously, because Targaryen succession barely acknowledged girls. Elia of Dorne wasn't part of the succession at all. Rhaegar's death made Aegon even more important, it made Aegon the crown prince.

I don't know if Aegon is real or fake but I think Varys will be in for a disappointment. Varys thinks that Aegon will be a good ruler because he has been taught to understand commoners. Nothing I have seen of Aegon so far indicates that he really understands how ordinary people think - he always knew he was different, he always got special treatment. His temper tantrum when losing at Cyvasse shows that he hasn't learned yet how to deal with disappointment. Did his teachers always let him win?

The best rulers I have seen so far are Tywin Lannister as Hand of the King / Warden of the West, and Eddard Stark as lord of Winterfell. If understanding a commoner's viewpoint is vital for being a good ruler, the only character qualified to rule is Davos Seaworth. None of them were ever considered for the job.

It is really hard to judge Aegon from a single viewpoint that he threw the cyvasse pieces when he lost.

[DarkHaunter62]

I think Dany is TPTWP - she was born amidst smoke and salt, she has waked dragons out of stone. Slam-dunk, in my opinion. I think Jon is likely as the other head - although you have to note that even given the certainty of many that he is the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna, GRRM keeps tossing out red herrings - literally - that business told to Davos in ADWD about him being a fisherman's daughter's son by Ned Stark. So who's the third head of the dragon? Aegon is the most obvious choice, I think more likely than Tyrion (although that would certainly be the kind of twist GRRM seems to like), and way more likely than Victarion - who I think will die in TWOW after having played a role helping Dany.

[Napyura]

Just reeks of fake. Same as his mummer have been a fake person all along.

[Tini]

It is really hard to judge Aegon from a single viewpoint that he threw the cyvasse pieces when he lost.

We have another viewpoint: that of Jon Connington. Jon Connington has raised Aegon, and he's confident that Aegon will prove a worth heir to Rhaegar. But he is also worried because Aegon's education was not yet fully finished. Aegon's appointment of Ser Duck to his King's Guard reminded me of a boy with a shiny new toy. I guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens when the novelty wears off.

Jon Connington's plans did not include Aegon leading the attack on Storm's End - that was Aegon's idea. Aegon may very well prove himself a capable commander. That decision shows one thing, however: he'll go his own way, and may diverge from plans laid for him by other people.

[Suzanna Stormborn]

We have another viewpoint: that of Jon Connington. Jon Connington has raised Aegon, and he's confident that Aegon will prove a worth heir to Rhaegar. But he is also worried because Aegon's education was not yet fully finished. Aegon's appointment of Ser Duck to his King's Guard reminded me of a boy with a shiny new toy. I guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens when the novelty wears off.

Jon Connington's plans did not include Aegon leading the attack on Storm's End - that was Aegon's idea. Aegon may very well prove himself a capable commander. That decision shows one thing, however: he'll go his own way, and may diverge from plans laid for him by other people.

I think the best person to compare FAegon VI with is Aegon V from D&E. And you know what, they are not very similar at all. VI is hasty and easily angered and easily swayed. Egg is not like that. Egg runs away from his family and does what he wants, and tries to help out his superiors not boss them around like VI, even though V is fully aware of who he is and he grew up among royalty and servants and all that stuff, and he is not pompous at all, not like VI. Tyrion changes his whole battle plan with one conversation. This is an easily influenced boy, and IMO he is just not very similar to the only other young boy Targaryen we have a chance to travel with :)

[The Real Summer Islander]

Can I intervene? Why can't you both be right? At least partially? I'm more with theREALjonsnow, but I also can't see any connection of Tywin and Varys. On the other hand, I'm interested to know who Aerys knew about Varys's existence in the first place. Can somebody help me on this one, if that was in the books, I've probably missed it or just forgot.

I also agree with Toccs, but I have some doubts: there are hints on "Rickard's Grand Alliance did exist, Rhaegar was plotting to remove Aerys and Tywin wasn't making any secret of his resentment of Aerys", but if you analyze the events, those things do not make a lot of sense.

I will try to explain what I think: Rickard and Alliance are plotting, but make a lot of stupid acts and got killed, I mean their actions are incredibly strange, if they are plotting against the king, they put themselves in danger deliberately and naively thought they could get away from it. I mean, those were not actions of people really making a Grand Plot against power, at least it seems that for me.

Real reference to Rhaegar's "plotting" was mentioned once, in Jaime's thoughts and, as somebody has already said, it was almost at the end of the war, so probably he really realised that his father is nuts and decided to throw him off the throne only then, we actually do not know. We have a lot of rumors said in the books and that reference from Jaime's POV (at least I do not remember the straight reference to Rhaegar's own words on this matter).

Thing with Tywin is also strange: he supposed to not making secret of his resentment towards Aerys, but the last one opens the gates, despite the whispers of his "loyal" Spider. Probably, he was thinking that having Jaime near was his shield against Tywin, but for such incredibly paranoid person that was strange, once again at least for me. May be that was his madness working, but in what convenient time and way.

My point is, it seems that really pulling the strings was somebody else, somebody else was behind all of that. That war was 100 % beneficial only for Baratheons (if not considering Robert-Lyanna thing) and Lannisters, as well as Varys and Picel were left in the court. The others lost too much: Targs, Martels and Starks, not mentioning the common folk, innocent people.

I'm fairly certain that in tyrion 2 or 3 in adwd, illiryo says areys found out about them both from noteriety. And that illiryo was already raised up kinda high.

[mrlukeduke]

Well yeah but Dany is already currently riding a dragon. So she is def one of the three heads, unless your theory is correct and she has 3 metaphorical heads.

Yeah there are so many interpretations. Even saying "the dragon" (has). Why not "the dragons" (have). Could it be there's only one true blood of the dragon (person), but that individual has three heads (crowns)? E.g. assuming Jon, for example: King of Winter, King of Westeros, Wildling "King" (King-Beyond-the-Wall). heck maybe even Night's King is in there somewhere.

[A Redeemed Hound]

I have a feeling he is a fake based on the mummer's dragon statement. Mummers are pretenders and fakes and actors. Varys was also a mummer before getting his roots and stem cut off. So there are two meanings to the statement right there.

[lacunajilly]

It's really amazing to me what a wonderful job GRRM does. You can talk circles around these until you are blue in the face.

I agree with everything everyone has written in this thread. The story provides us with plenty of clues that Aegon is a fraud even if he doesn't know it and certainly having him thrust upon us with such a reasonable explanation at the last minute only adds to the sense of mistrust I myself feel towards him.

At the end of the day though it comes back to the fact that the dragon must have three heads. Rhaegar believed that the dragon had to have three heads and there are clues that he felt that those three heads had to come from the family line, this even echos the family history. This belief might be why he kidnapped / whooed Lyanna. If he rapped Lyanna that belief must have been terribly strong as everything we know about him so far doesn't make him seem like the type of person to resort to rape. Even if he only whooed her he still must have had something terribly powerful to make her sit quietly in the Tower of Joy while her family and friends risked their lives to reclaim her. So, either he was trapped in maze of prophecy which is a common theme in the series or we have got to have a third dragon around here somewhere.

So if Aegon is the fake we all think he is, who is our final head? As wonderful as it would be to see Tyrion aboard a dragon it would be very poor storytelling to have two characters who have never known the truth about their parents until of course its time for them to take their rightful place. So it makes sense that GRRM would introduce to us a third dragon who has had completely different journey than the other two we are already familiar with.

That being said there is another very good argument for the three heads to be aspects of the same person and both Jon and Danny already have two aspects to their characters which are notably different.

I am beginning to like the idea that the three heads of the dragon are three different people and they represent the completion of the three main prophecies. Danny fits the bill for The Prince, Jon has pointers too AA, who can fill the role of the Last Hero? So far the only person I can come up with is Bran. He has already made the journey of the Last Hero braving the unknown north with his companions but he certainly isn't a Targ. I'd love some other idea's on who would fit the bill.

[Red Raven]

They had time to know the city was going to be sacked, got a replacement infant, switch the babies and spirit Aegon out of the city while leaving the mother and sister behind? That doesn't make sense.

If they had time for a baby switch, they had more than enough time and no lack of secret passageways to get Elia and both children to safety.

The attack was a surprise, the real Aegon got his head smashed in as an infant and Young Griff is a fake.

I wouldn't be surprised if he were actually a Dayne (Ashara's or not). They're described as having Targaryen eyes and hair but their ancestry is First Men, not Valyrian. I think GRRM used the Daynes both as a means to present the fake Aegon and as a way for Ned to cover for Jon Snow in case he had silver hair and purple eyes.

He has already made the journey of the Last Hero braving the unknown north with his companions but he certainly isn't a Targ.

Didn't GRRM state that the heads of the dragon didn't necessarily need to be Targs? Bran and Tyrion (as a full-blooded Lannister) are still good candidates.

[GarthButchers]

They had time to know the city was going to be sacked, got a replacement infant, switch the babies and spirit Aegon out of the city while leaving the mother and sister behind? That doesn't make sense.

If they had time for a baby switch, they had more than enough time and no lack of secret passageways to get Elia and both children to safety.

The attack was a surprise, the real Aegon got his head smashed in as an infant and Young Griff is a fake.

:agree: