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I'm no friend of Balon Greyjoy, but he had no obligation to accept Robb Stark's alliance


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It is a really obvious min-max strategy; you don't gain as much if you do it this way, but you are unlikely to lose as much if it goes wrong and yea, you can fit revenge in there too, in a nice juicy package.

It makes perfect rational sense which is to his credit as an author.

The only reason they didn't lose much is because Balon was because they never made the attempt to take and hold the entire Kingdom. If they had, even with the Northmen on campaign in the South, the effort would have seriously depleted the Iron Islands ability to defewnd against the Iron Throne if for no other reason than the North's sheer size and the number of men required to hold that much hostiel territory.

If Balon had wanted to maximise his gains for minimum outlay he should have attacked the Westerlands: They're already depleted of manpower (more so than the North seeing as Robb stil has his original levies with him and the Lannisters are scraping the barrels of Lannisport for any one-handed 12 year olds who can wave a stick in vaguely the right direction), fabulously wealthy and they're already guaranteed to be at war with him at some point in the near future, oh, and to top it off, at this stage the Lannisters'/Iron Throne's sea power was completely tied up trying to defend against Stannis and the Redwynes were with Renly. Better to kick them while they're down and helpless to retaliate rather than wait until they come for his head with the means to take it.

The only way Balon's plan makes any sense whatsoever is if you assume that the Iron Throne will for some reason be unwilling or unable to reannex the Iron Islands at the earliest opportunity The Iron Throne is essentially under Tywin Lannister's control and Tywin Lannister is a man famous for completely exterminating the families of people who rebel against him.

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Usual misunderstanding.

The westerlands have strong defenses at CR and lannisport and an army already gathering there. The main lannister army can come back, either through the Golden Tooth or to the south. Tywin is a more feared and ruthless leader than the still green Robb.

The north is not in a defensible state, and the Stark army can be blocked off at a strategic choke point. As they are independent the IR will be pleased to see the ironborn fighting the north and is unlikely to intervene while this is going on. If Balon doesn't actually attack the south there is little reason why men and money would be wasted attacked someone who was doing good work for them. The Starks can't retaliate themselves as they have no fleet.

In contrast whether Renly or Tywin won in the south a threat to the integrity of the westerlands as part of the south would be answered because it is the richest region. :laugh:

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The westerlands have strong defenses at CR and lannisport and an army already gathering there.

I believe Lannisport is speciffically stated to be largely undefended in the books, but I can't recall where.

And, so what about the defenses? Just don't attack the castle! Attack everything else, that's where the easy money is. That's how raiding works.

The main lannister army can come back, either through the Golden Tooth or to the south.

And Robb can stop them, or otherwise punish them for that decision. And Balon can flee (again, that's how raiding works).

Tywin is a more feared and ruthless leader than the still green Robb.

Ah, so Balon is a pussy is your reasoning here. Makes sense, doesn't make his decision logical or intelligent or min-maxing though.

If Balon doesn't actually attack the south there is little reason why men and money would be wasted attacked someone who was doing good work for them.

Except that he's declared himself independent, which makes his continued existance a threat to the Iron Throne's power. This is the same reason that Robb would never be allowed to sue for peace as a King. Sure Balon is a smaller threat than most of the others but he's still a threat.

The Starks can't retaliate themselves as they have no fleet.

Neither do the Lannisters. :laugh:

In contrast whether Renly or Tywin won in the south a threat to the integrity of the westerlands as part of the south would be answered because it is the richest region.

Right. So Balon's only hope is that neither of them wins. And the only way he can achieve that is by attacking them, not their enemy.

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His mistake was attacking anyone at all. Lets face it the old way died with the unification of the seven kingdoms, even if the north became an independent state how long are they going to survive raiding two much larger, more densely populated areas it's not going to happen. In fact it's about the only thing that could possibly reunite the two countries.

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I believe Lannisport is speciffically stated to be largely undefended in the books, but I can't recall where.

I believe it is said in an SSM to have a strong well drilled city watch.

And, so what about the defenses? Just don't attack the castle! Attack everything else, that's where the easy money is. That's how raiding works.

Well, it's Robb's own envoy who brings up that. :laugh:

But Balon was thinking of doing more than raiding for a few months.

And there, there is the army that is still there, for all Balon knows.

And Robb can stop them, or otherwise punish them for that decision. And Balon can flee (again, that's how raiding works).

He can try (although not really if Tywin goes south) and why should Balon put his faith in him? Far better to trust your own men to block of Robb's route north.

And again, if the lannisters came back and he can't raid with impunity, what has he gained? The enmity of Casterly Rock ...

Ah, so Balon is a pussy is your reasoning here.

Nah, just makes him bright.

Except that he's declared himself independent, which makes his continued existance a threat to the Iron Throne's power. This is the same reason that Robb would never be allowed to sue for peace as a King. Sure Balon is a smaller threat than most of the others but he's still a threat.

Not while Robb is still claiming half of the kingdom and Balon is attacking half of the half Robb claims. :laugh:

Neither do the Lannisters. :laugh:

Boop ... boop ... boop, except they do! In the west and at KL. They also had the Arbor sown up, sort of ...

Anyway, assuming the civil war in the south ends in a year or so the winner has all the ships and won't suffer for Balon raiding their kingdom. Robb still has none and his main port as far away from the iron isles as it gets and no tradition of seafaring.

Right. So Balon's only hope is that neither of them wins. And the only way he can achieve that is by attacking them, not their enemy.

Huh. So he is going to ensure Renly doesn't win by attacking Tywin on behalf of the boy too thick to realize a Baratheon victory means endless war for him, same as a lannister one? Look, Balon was actually quite bright.

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Look, Balon was actually quite bright.

He wasn't really bright. While it may have worked for the short term it wouldn't have worked in the long run. Every other claimant to the Iron Throne has demostrated that they are going to be king over the whole of the Seven Kingdoms, not a broken one. The only individual who would assist Balon in his fight against the Iron Throne would be someone who was themself interested in maintaining independence. He had no chance of succeeding by trying to join forces with the ones who have already stated that they will be kings over all of it or none at all.

While the OP was right that he has no obligation to take Robbs offer, it clearly would have been the smartest move for Balon, if he wasnted to maintain a independent kingdom.

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And again, if the lannisters came back and he can't raid with impunity, what has he gained? The enmity of Casterly Rock ...

Hold on here. Here's where your reasoning falls through. He ALREADY had the enmity of Casterly Rock, when he declared himself independent. So either way, he was going to have an enemy in the Lannisters, so may as well join up with the other enemies of their enemies and kick their rears together hm?

And it would take time for him to return to Lannisport, in which time, they can plunder and pillage with impunity, see the Lion banners in the distance, hop onto their longships, look like they're going home. Then Tywin will leave, and the Ironborn will raid another prosperous Westerlander city. (And Seven know they have no short supply of those.)

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I believe it is said in an SSM to have a strong well drilled city watch.

Well, it's Robb's own envoy who brings up that. :laugh:

But Balon was thinking of doing more than raiding for a few months.

And there, there is the army that is still there, for all Balon knows.

He can try (although not really if Tywin goes south) and why should Balon put his faith in him? Far better to trust your own men to block of Robb's route north.

And again, if the lannisters came back and he can't raid with impunity, what has he gained? The enmity of Casterly Rock ...

Nah, just makes him bright.

Not while Robb is still claiming half of the kingdom and Balon is attacking half of the half Robb claims. :laugh:

Boop ... boop ... boop, except they do! In the west and at KL. They also had the Arbor sown up, sort of ...

Anyway, assuming the civil war in the south ends in a year or so the winner has all the ships and won't suffer for Balon raiding their kingdom. Robb still has none and his main port as far away from the iron isles as it gets and no tradition of seafaring.

Huh. So he is going to ensure Renly doesn't win by attacking Tywin on behalf of the boy too thick to realize a Baratheon victory means endless war for him, same as a lannister one? Look, Balon was actually quite bright.

You're tenacious, at least.

Min/max strategy again points to the west Bran.

Closer, no fleet and Lannisport has been scraped clean for able bodied men.

Minimax denotes minimal efforts for maximum gains.

Balon attacking the empty Stony Shore is maximun effort for minimal gains.

The revenge chant doesn't even make sense truly, since he doesn't give a fig about Theon, as evidenced by his treatment and dismissal.

Compare Balon's attitude towards Theon with Doran's treatment of Quentyn.

And then, Ned held him for ten years, but Robert was the one who ordered the campaign against Balon, which saw to the deaths of his sons and forced him to kneel on Pykes damp cold uneven stones in front of his men.

And Balon chooses to attack Robb rather than Joffrey?

Shit's contrived like a priest in a whorehouse.

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In hindsight, since Balon is dead, his only living son is a shell of his former self, a captive of Stannis, condemned to death, his daughter is also a captive of Stannis and the Ironborn have been driven from Moat Cailin....

It looks like taking Robb's offer which would have united the North & the Iron Island against the South would have been a much better deal, especially now that Tywin Lannister is dead and Lannister forces largely depleted, it surely couldn't have turned out any worse.

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But Balon was thinking of doing more than raiding for a few months.

Then Balon is a hypocrit in addition to being a fool. His express wish is to return to the Old Way. What is the Old Way? Raiding.

He can try (although not really if Tywin goes south) and why should Balon put his faith in him?

If Tywin moves to re-enforce the Westerlands than he is essentially abandoning King's Landing to either Robb or Stannis and is adandoning any position he has gained in the Riverlands. This means he has lost the Iron Throne (and thus the kingship, in addition to his family there) and gives Robb an excelt foothold to invade the Westerlands.

Besides which Balon isn't putting any faith in Robb, he can just cut and run if Tywin's forces return. At which point Tywin will have lost the war to deal with a non-existant enemy.

And again, if the lannisters came back and he can't raid with impunity, what has he gained? The enmity of Casterly Rock ...

Just because the Lannister army came back doesn't mean he can't raid, it just means he can't raid Casterly Rock or Lannisport (which he might not have been able to raid anyway), he can just attack somewhere else. By the time Tywin gets his army in position then the raiders are gone. Again, this is how raiding works.

Not while Robb is still claiming half of the kingdom and Balon is attacking half of the half Robb claims.

Very true. As soon as Robb is finished (something that Balon is hastening) then so is Balon. Balon's only hope is to extend Robb's threat and grow fat in his shadow.

Boop ... boop ... boop, except they do! In the west and at KL. They also had the Arbor sown up, sort of ...

Victarion and Euron burned the Lannister fleet during the first rebellion and it has not been rebuilt. The Redwynne's fleet is sworn to Renly and is merely held from attacking the Lannisters by hostages. The Royal fleet as you so astutely pointed out is on the wrong side of the country (and also engaged with Stannis).

Anyway, assuming the civil war in the south ends in a year or so the winner has all the ships and won't suffer for Balon raiding their kingdom.

Says you, personally I don't see it ending that quickly (without the RW which is iffy at this point). Besides which, while the raiding might not hurt the Westerlands and Reach (though I think it will) it will certainly enrich the Iron Islands.

And finally: Balon can't see the future, he has no idea how long the war will last or who will win. At the time Robb makes his offer, a new King has just declared himself and Tywin appears to be loosing, so it looks like the war will drag on for quite a while. Better I would think to drag the war out and profit off the confusion.

Huh. So he is going to ensure Renly doesn't win by attacking Tywin

He is capable of raiding the Reach at the same time as raiding the Westerlands. That forces Renly to hold back some of his troops to attempt to defend his lands (which won't work), weakening him and thus making his taking King's Landing harder.

too thick to realize a Baratheon victory means endless war for him, same as a lannister one?

If anyone but Robb wins both Robb and Balon are screwed. It is thus in both their best interests to make sure Robb wins.

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In hindsight, since Balon is dead, his only living son is a shell of his former self, a captive of Stannis, condemned to death, his daughter is also a captive of Stannis and the Ironborn have been driven from Moat Cailin....

It looks like taking Robb's offer which would have united the North & the Iron Island against the South would have been a much better deal, especially now that Tywin Lannister is dead and Lannister forces largely depleted, it surely couldn't have turned out any worse.

For the Ironborn as a whole? No.

The Ironborn are still going strong, they're one of the Kingdoms the least affected by the war so far.

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Balon's activities more or less went along with the whole Ironborn culture/history. While it would have been good for Theon's proposed alliance to go into play (I like Theon and feel bad for him), Balon simply had no reason to. The Iron Islands are the mad dogs of Westeros.

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Balon's activities more or less went along with the whole Ironborn culture/history.

But did they though? As I understood it, the "Old Way" of the Ironborn was raiding wherever the hell they liked then absconding with loot and captured women back to the Iron Islands. Before Aegon I they could do this because there was no concentrated effort to stop them. Now I could understand raiding from Balon considering all the havoc Robb and Renly were causing the crown but to suddenly decide to be an Empire builder for no real reason is a stretch for me.

I've argued with people before about whether Balon's stupid actions were too heavy handed on GRRM's part, but I can't remember the last time someone lauded BALON GREYJOY's critical thinking. What bothers me most about it is that as soon as the North has been crippled, Martin kills Balon off in the most perfunctory way, almost as if to prove that his character was there purely for plot reasons before being replaced by the far more interesting Euron.

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Ty didn't let Robb's kingdom remain independent, so why would he have treated Balloon differently? Balloon's plan would have made sense only if he had remained loyal to the IT - there is no such thing as a peaceful coexistence between a small kingdom and a big kingdom that share a border. Maybe the Iron Kingdom would outlive Balloon (winter is coming), but after that - And so he spoke, and so he spoke, that lord of Pyke

That makes Balloon a power-mad butcher and massive hypocrite (since his only hope was that Ty will allow him to wear crown).

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But did they though? As I understood it, the "Old Way" of the Ironborn was raiding wherever the hell they liked then absconding with loot and captured women back to the Iron Islands. Before Aegon I they could do this because there was no concentrated effort to stop them. Now I could understand raiding from Balon considering all the havoc Robb and Renly were causing the crown but to suddenly decide to be an Empire builder for no real reason is a stretch for me.

I've argued with people before about whether Balon's stupid actions were too heavy handed on GRRM's part, but I can't remember the last time someone lauded BALON GREYJOY's critical thinking. What bothers me most about it is that as soon as the North has been crippled, Martin kills Balon off in the most perfunctory way, almost as if to prove that his character was there purely for plot reasons before being replaced by the far more interesting Euron.

Exactly.

He was basically a deus ex machina from introduction to departing.

Which is understandable, as the Starks must hit bottom to make their ascent more the sweeter.

I just wish the plotting of this thread was done better.

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Exactly.

He was basically a deus ex machina from introduction to departing.

Which is understandable, as the Starks must hit bottom to make their ascent more the sweeter.

I just wish the plotting of this thread was done better.

I've always simply imagined that "old, festered wounds override any sort of rational thinking" is the theme here. I mean, considering that Balon seems to be a very petty and spiteful man, it makes sense that he'd choose the most irrational course of action for the sake of momentary revenge for imagined slights.

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I've always simply imagined that "old, festered wounds override any sort of rational thinking" is the theme here. I mean, considering that Balon seems to be a very petty and spiteful man, it makes sense that he'd choose the most irrational course of action for the sake of momentary revenge for imagined slights.

That works for him, but Asha goes along with it without any lip in ACOK, only to suddenly do an about face at the Kingsmoot?

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That works for him, but Asha goes along with it without any lip in ACOK, only to suddenly do an about face at the Kingsmoot?

She didn't do a complete about face at all. She wanted to capitalize on gains and turn the stony shore into a permanent ironborn colony. She thought the presence in the north was ok, she was just conservative about further expansion and trying to hold too much. It was Balon's policy but just on a smaller scale.

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The idea that Balon was smart or that he made the right choice in attacking the North is laughable. The Iron Islands by themselves simply cannot maintain their independence from a united Westeros, period.

That the Starks and Tullys can't attack the Iron Islands or provide relief by sea is irrelevant, because regardless of whether or not the Greyjoys do anything to antagonize the South, there is not a single contender for the Iron Throne that is will accept independence for the Iron Islands. Stannis won't, Renly wouldn't, the Lannisters won't, the Tyrells won't, Aegon won't, and Dany won't.

The ONLY chance the Ironborn have of keeping their independence is if there is a separate faction on Westeros that is also independent from the Iron Throne. It doesn't even really matter if the Greyjoys and that faction are allied, the mere presence of a separate kingdom weakens and potentially threatens the Iron Throne enough to give the Iron Islands a fighting chance at maintaining their independence. Without that other kingdom in Westeros, sooner or later the Iron Islands will inevitably be brought back into the fold.

Balon, by attacking and crippling the Northern cause, also ultimately crippled the only chance at the Greyjoys had at holding onto their crown.

I gotta go now, but I'll come back soon to address other matters regarding the folly of the attack on the North.

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