Hooded Man in Winterfell Part 4

[alienarea]

i'm not in everyone else's league on this, but I want to chime in on a few points.

-the HM is someone Theon does not recognize by sight, or at least GRRM leads us to believe so.

-as I said before, I don't think there's any reason the HM has to be someone who knew Theon before. anyone who is in wf for more than a few hours could have had Theon pointed out to him. Theon is an easily identifiable character virtually everyone will be aware of.

-that said, just b/c it doesn't have to be someone who knew theon before, it's still possible, but I think unlikely. It could be, as many of the theories assume, someone who didn't know Theon was there (perhaps in wf for just minutes or hours when he saw Theon) and was surprised to see him b/c he'd concluded Theon was dead based on what he'd earlier heard. In this scenario, it must be someone who knows Theon well by sight, since Theon is nearly unrecognizable even to his sister. That's the problem with the theories that rely on this scenario: how could there be someone who knew Theon by sight well enough to recognize Theon in his altered state, but who Theon does not recognize?

-I haven't seen any discussion of the possibility that Theon's role in the killing of the ironmen (at Moat Cailin, correct?) is the source of the kinslayer accusation. My books are lent out, and I have no memory of exactly what happened there, except that Theon persuaded them to surrender and then Bolton slaughtered most of them. Does anyone have anything to add? Any basis to think some of those ironmen were Theon's kin?

-I buy into the argument that this scene is important, and from that conclude that the identity of the HM is important, and thus that the HM himself is an important character. From this I exclude the theories for Cerwyn, Glover, Harwin or any other obscure/secondary/tertiary character. Could be wrong of course, but this is the vibe I have now.

-I agree that Davos is excluded by the apparent visceral hatred of the HM for Theon. And more generally he is not someone who I see as being a candidate, because he's just not part of the general Theon/Stark/nortmen portion of the story. Although, obviously, he's now drawn into it by virtue of Manderly sending him to get Rickon. But still.

I also agree it's not Blackfish, mostly for geographical reasons, and b/c it wouldn't make much sense plot-wise.

So, based on this, I'm thinking Howland Reed or Benjen. Since I assume Theon would recognize Benjen, I'm thinking Howland Reed. If the kinslayer accusation relates to Theon's betrayal at Moat Cailin, that provides further support, since Crannogmen were present at that scene (IIRC?).

If not Howland then I'm wrong about it not being Cerwyn, Harwin, Glover or other secondary (northman or Stark-related) character, because it must be someone with some passion for hating Theon.

You exclude Davos too easily. Rickon and Osha could have told him things about Theon. Plus, having lost sons himself he sure doesn't like Theon killing children.

[Prince of the North]

i'm nowhere in everyone else's league on this...

Sure you are!

So, based on this, I'm thinking Howland Reed or Benjen. Since I assume Theon would recognize Benjen, I'm thinking Howland Reed. If the kinslayer accusation relates to Theon's betrayal at Moat Cailin, that provides further support, since Crannogmen were present at that scene (IIRC?).

I like your entire post and your reasoning. However, I don't have the books electronically to do an easy search and I don't remember: was the Hooded Man described as being tall at all? If he was then that would seem to go against him being Howland Reed who, of course, is a small crannogman.

-the HM has some more visceral hostility to Theon

I subscribe to the Theon Durden theory for now. I think you're right with this statement but my interpretation is that the Hooded Man is "Theon" and that it is "Theon" (the person Theon used to be and would like to be again) who has some visceral hostility toward "Reek" (the person he has been forced by circumstance to become and is in danger of remaining). I believe that this...sort of confrontation...between the two parts of his warring psyche is when Theon actually makes the decision to defy Ramsey and reclaim "himself".

[Meddler]

-the HM is someone Theon does not recognize by sight, or at least GRRM leads us to believe so.

-as I said before, I don't think there's any reason the HM has to be someone who knew Theon before. anyone who is in wf for more than a few hours could have had Theon pointed out to him. Theon is an easily identifiable character virtually everyone will be aware of.

The problem with this idea is that it then has to be someone that Roose and his supporters wouldn't have an issue with, but also someone who probably entered the locked down Winterfell after the wedding, where Theon was prominently displayed as he gave fArya away. Howland couldn't simply be hiding, unless he'd already spoken to the washerwomen and was made aware of Theon's presence. He could be hiding his identity I suppose, we don't know how likely the northmen would be to recognize him, but it's worth noting that Willam Dustin and Mark Ryswell were also at the ToJ, and both those houses are well represented at Winterfell. It also probably kills off the miller's sons hypothesis, but it does raise the other possibility you mention

-I haven't seen any discussion of the possibility that Theon's role in the killing of the ironmen (at Moat Cailin, correct?) is the source of the kinslayer accusation. My books are lent, and I have no memory of exactly what happened there, except that Theon persuaded them to surrender and then Bolton slaughtered most of them. Does anyone have anything to add? Any basis to think some of those ironmen were Theon's kin?

If the kinslayer usage is meant literally, which I do believe it is, this seems to be the other possibility, but I don't really see how it fits. Theon doesn't actually kill most of them, he advises them to surrender. A part of him may realize that they'll be killed even if they surrender, but this is a murky link to kinslaying at best, and that's only if we assume he had kin present, which we don't get any indication of. There is one person Theon does personally kill--Ralf Kenning. Kenning was in command of the ironmen at Moat Cailin after Victarion left for the kingsmoot. When Theon arrived he was dying a slow, painful death from the crannogmen's poison. Theon mercy-kills him. There's no link of any blood relation between he and Theon though, and if there was one, how would someone like Howland Reed be aware of it and Theon not? Most of the other remaining men are Codd men, who are considered vile even by the ironborn standards, and we're giving no blood relationship between the Codds and Greyjoys.

Then, even if we do assume that the HM is Howland, and he's using the term in reference to the ironmen (or Ralf Kenning in particular), how does he connect to Mors Umber and the washerwomen, who also use the term? Is that coincidence? Did Howland hook up with them somehow and reveal his thoughts on Theon's kinslaying activities? We'd have to somehow argue that Howland new Mors was marching ahead of Stannis's army, and that they'd been in communication, which could also lead to a connection with Mance and his group, but seems unlikely.

These are all difficult questions under any scenario, but it seems a bit easier to tie it together in regard to the miller's sons, where the evidence of a potential blood link is more explicitly laid out in the context of these events (Theon reflects on sleeping with their mother immediately after the second time he's called a kinslayer).

[The_Undying]

-as I said before, I don't think there's any reason the HM has to be someone who knew Theon before. anyone who is in wf for more than a few hours could have had Theon pointed out to him. Theon is an easily identifiable character virtually everyone will be aware of.

But if Theon's been pointed out to the HM beforehand, why is the HM surprised to see Theon still alive? The surprise should have come, when Theon was being pointed out, not several hours or even days later, when he meets him.

[Har!]

You think the "Theon Durden" theory is popular on this board? That hasn't been my experience and I've always been "Theon Durden" (I fully embrace the derogatory name the theory's detractors have given it ;) ) from my very first reading.

Also, please don't imply that subscribers to the theory are just engaging in "wishful thinking". I could just as easily dismiss your post here as "wishful thinking" on your part simply because you don't want "Theon Durden" to be true. The truth is, none of us will know for sure until Martin tells us and until then there's just speculation.

It's also interesting that you list a few movies containing split personalities, etc. as evidence for a "Hollywood trope" and then use that as support for your thinking that Martin wouldn't do that because you "give him more credit than that". You do realize that AGoT, at least, was written before these movies were made. Furthermore, I don't know when Martin came up with the idea for Theon and Reek to have a conversation/confrontation (if that's what he did) but, then again, neither do you. Martin could very well have come up with it before or independently of "Hollywood". The point is we just don't know yet so it's all just opinion and speculation at this point.

Sorry, it sounds as if I offended you, if so then I apologize.

If your point is that we are all speculating, well, yes of course we are.

For my part, I prefer informed speculation supported by textual references as opposed to the more 'pie in the sky' variety. There are plenty of both types on these boards.

Unfortunately, with regard to the durden theory all I have seen has been assertion. That may be my fault for having come to the discussion late. I would welcome a breakdown of how the durden theory is supported in the text. Perhaps you can point me to one or outline it yourself. I am always on the lookout for a good read, even if I am not ultimately convinced.

My reference to the movies was an attempt to try and understand why some readers may be partial to the durden theory, possibly due to a false analogy with these films. And while I did not come up with the name, it is most commonly called the durden theory for a reason :)

You are mistaken to think my referencing of Hollywood was an attempt to argue how GRRM may have been influenced, since of course I don't think that the durden theory reflects what he wrote in the least.

Thank you for this portion of your post. I have always had trouble articulating my dislike of the Theon Durden theory. Now that I read your post I think I must dislike it for the same reason you do - it seems like poor storytelling.

I have to admit despite reading the series at least 5 times I had absolutely no idea who Ser Kyle Condon was until I read this thread. He is a very obscure character.

I have read your previous post about being convinced that HM is Kyle. I think you make several interesting arguments. It seems to me that many of them could apply to the Liddle, Robett or Hal Mollin. You make an arguement that the Liddle and Robett would be too recognizable to be HM. I'm not convinced of that, but even if that were true, would it rule out Hallis Mollin? He has more reason to dislike Theon and would also be unrecognized by anyone save Theon currently in Winterfell (maybe even more so since Roose and Roose's men would probably recognize Kyle).

You have obviously given this a lot of thought and I would appreciate your views on Hal as the HM & why Kyle is a better candidate.

PS - Many people have nominated Harwin as a possible HM. I think there are at least two problems with him, although if they could be circumvented he would be as viable a candidate as Hallis.

1. Last we saw Harwin he was with BwB. A lot has to happen off page to get Harwin up to Winterfell.

2. Theon thinks Harwin died at King's Landing. He would be as surprised to find him alive as HM is to find Theon. (Imagine -HM: "How is it that you still live?" Theon: "How is it that you still live?")

Hallis Mollen is another character who would have to get to Winterfell from the riverlands, although he has the advantage that Winterfell is his acknowledged destination in contrast to the Mormonts, Galbert Glover or Harwin.

However we know that Lady Dustin has her eye out for him. Now if Hallis (who is depicted as none too bright, always stating or restating the obvious) becomes aware of the betrayal of the Boltons he may seek a more surreptitious route to Winterfell. That does not explain why he would be walking about openly in Winterfell however. It seems to me that if he were parading openly in Winterfell that would be at odds with the stealth he would need to get to Winterfell. So either he is unaware of his danger (in which case Barbrey's men should have waylaid him previously) or is aware of the danger in which case he should not have encountered Theon out in the open. Does that make sense?

While he could be able to recognize Theon likewise Theon should recognize Hallis.

Then there is the mystery of the kinslayer accusation... given my reading of the situation Hallis would not blaspheme. Other readings that do not give particular weight to the accusation would not have that difficulty however.

Finally Hallis being the HM would seem to me to rob the appearance of the HM of much of its potential for coordinating the resulting action, since Hallis would have been out of the loop regarding any of the northern conspiracies. He may have been recruited, but that would require the very good luck of him encountering Manderly's men - and that those men being in the know that Manderly was not in reality submitting to the Bolton/Frey alliance. For as far as the outside world knows both Manderly and Dustin are now allies to house Bolton. Of course neither may be... but how would poor Hallis know the underlying reality?

Regarding Ser Kyle, I have to credit Meddler with that insight. My further comments will follow his quote:

I actually think Hal Mollen would be more recognizable than Harwin. He was the captain of the guard, while Harwin was just the son of the master of horse. Hal also comes off as a bit dopey in his dialogue throughout the series, Bran Vras makes a pretty good argument against him. We also have no indication how Hal would have gotten North of the neck, but again, as opposed to Harwin, at least we have Winterfell as his stated destination.

To be clear--I'm not convinced that Ser Kyle is absolutely the HM. I just think he makes a strong candidate, and as funny as it sounds, I think it takes the least amount of explanatory power to tie up all the loose ends around the possibility that it's him

Robett Glover would almost certainly be recognized by Theon--he was one of Robb's chief lieutenants. Even if he wasn't a Lord, he was more boisterous and charismatic than his older brother Galbart and was considered for command a number of times (including for the force that Roose wound up with, I believe). He sat on war councils, as did Theon, and was pretty vocal, and Roose would absolutely recognize him as well. We'd have to argue that he was unseen by Roose as well, which seems implausible under the conditions.

If it wasn't for these issues, Robett would be my top candidate.

The problem with the Liddle is that it's a bit arbitrary. It's possible--easy even--to construct a scenario where it's him, but it's just as easy to connect 100 other scenarios for him. With someone like Ser Kyle, or Robett, we have a more conclusive idea of their recent path and their potential motives.

I definitely didn't remember who Ser Kyle was either at first. He's very innocuous, and we never actually meet him I don't believe, he's only mentioned. The way you connect him isn't by starting with him, it's by starting with House Cerwyn in general. Their proximity to Winterfell solves the problem of the Kinslayer reference being connected to the miller's sons, and the death of Cley at the hands of Ramsay provides a strong motive. The only remaining members of the Cerwyn household we're aware of are Jonella, who does not seem to be present at Winterfell and does not fit the description of Hooded "Man," and Ser Kyle, who despite his obscurity, would fit rather nicely.

The problems with Ser Kyle are definitely ones of literary mechanics, but it's hard to consider this a very strong argument or even a true contradiction knowing GRRM's penchant for expanding his universe and bringing more and more characters into play. It's also worth noting that a character like Ser Kyle is even mentioned at all. Martin adds plenty of characters who serve as set dressing or serve minor purposes, but Ser Kyle seems almost completely arbitrary in a literary context. Ser Ronnel Stout had the co-command of the Ruby Ford. Why not just give him the command alone? Why add a co-commander, and then elaborate that the co-commander had strong ties to a house that's nearly been extinguished through treachery? Even for Martin, this seems pretty arbitrary. It wasn't necessary for that moment in the story. We don't have much detail on the non-family members of the other northern Households, even ones we've gotten quite a bit closer too such as Karstark, Umber, and Glover (the only ones we get any details on are Bolton and Manderly, as far as I can tell, and we spend much more time dealing with the internal affairs of these houses). So what was GRRM's purpose for mentioning Ser Kyle? It's pretty atypical. It doesn't make him the HM, but it's worth considering why GRRM chose to place this character into the story at all.

I actually came to endorse Meddler's suggestion of Ser Kyle through a bit of a different route.

I initially found Glover to be the most convincing candidate, in part because I was convinced of the importance of the kinslayer accusation as a clue. Glover was tasked by Manderly to work with Wex to substantiate Wex's testimony regarding the survival of the Stark heirs.

While Glover would not be concerned regarding the fate of the boys for their own sakes (or for the sake of Theon's violation of the stricture against kinslaying) he would be interested to put together the most complete and detailed account of events simply in order to make the narrative as compelling as possible. The more points that could be corroborated, the more solid the claim that the Stark heirs had survived would be and the less likely that it could be dismissed on the basis that Manderly was simply putting forward a 'false' heir.

However, as Meddler notes above, there were weaknesses connected to the Glover candidacy that he shared with other potential candidate. These were brought to my attention by other posters and led me to reassess Glover as the HM.

At that point I went back and re-examined the evidence.

One result of my re-examination is that I felt that the HM was most likely a captain of the guard of a northern house - someone akin to a Steelshanks Walton or Rodrik Cassel. This person would be known to the Boltons and therefore have the ability to enter/exit Winterfell as well as travel it's precincts without fear. He would also be able to play the role of go-between coordinating the conspiracies inside/outside of Winterfell. And in the role of go-between he would become informed of Theon's kinslaying.

I came to this conclusion on the basis of ruling out all the 'usual suspects' - the named characters we are familiar with - either on the basis of access, recognizability or being able to recognize Theon at a glance (as the HM does). Not having a named candidate in mind I named my anonymous candidate him 'Anon Umber.'

It was a little after this that Meddler put forward his theory nominating Ser Kyle Condon. This struck me as a revelation. Here was a candidate that fit the criteria I had outlined for my anonymous candidate - and he had a name to boot! So while Meddler came to his conclusion reasoning from the position of house Cerwyn, I came to mine reasoning from the requirements of the HM. It seems to me to be a near perfect match.

Ser Kyle is a high ranking retainer in a northern house, that, if the truth of the sacking of Winterfell comes out, will have no love for the Boltons.

He is nominally allied to the Boltons however and so can travel freely within Winterfell. He is likely known as a friend to the Bolton men, having been part of Roose's host in the Riverlands.

He may well have observed Theon since his transformation, but even if he had not he was well positioned (Castle Cerwyn being a half day ride away) to know Theon. This close proximity may also explain knowledge of the miller's sons patrimony, although that is not essential.

Even better, Castle Cerwyn is strategically located close to Winterfell, the White Knife and astride lines of communication between Last Hearth and White Harbor. He even served under Wylis Manderly (presumably after the death of Medgar Cerwyn) improving the odds of his being considered worthy of trust to act as a go-between.

Furthermore, given Castle Cerwyn's proximity to Winterfell and the fact that Lady Jonella is not present at Winterfell it actually makes sense that Condon may visit under the pretext of bringing tidings to Roose (Castle Cerwyn's maester is with Roose at WF so sending a raven is not an option). All the while Castle Cerwyn could act as a rendezvous for the greater part of the Manderly host in preparation for a bold stroke against the Boltons/Freys on the part of the northern lords.

Like Meddler, I am not dead certain that it is Ser Kyle Condon, but the points that Meddler makes at the end of his post above are very suggestive.

Why does GRRM take pains to create and name such a minor character?

Why grant him co-command at the ford?

Why invent a relationship between him and Wylis Manderly?

The character is minor - obscure even (I had forgotton his existence completely) and yet he has all the prerequisites that the HM would require to both act as an effective go-between and to react as he did when confronted with Theon. Is this all just mere coincidence?

[Prince of the North]

Sorry, it sounds as if I offended you, if so then I apologize.

Nah, it's all good, Har! I just felt the need to point out...

If your point is that we are all speculating, well, yes of course we are.

...this. And the fact that we are all just speculating makes it a little irksome when someone is dismissive of a theory they don't agree with in favor of a theory they are in favor of with no proof either way ;) That just smacks of egocentrism/confirmation bias (i.e. thinking "I'm right and anyone who disagrees with me is wrong").

For my part, I prefer informed speculation supported by textual references as opposed to the more 'pie in the sky' variety. There are plenty of both types on these boards.

What does "informed" mean here? I mean, textual references are great and all but they in no way constitute proof. Even with references to the text they are still just interpretations of what something might mean. If the references actually proved something in this case then there would be no more debate but, of course, there certainly is.

Unfortunately, with regard to the durden theory all I have seen has been assertion. That may be my fault for having come to the discussion late. I would welcome a breakdown of how the durden theory is supported in the text. Perhaps you can point me to one or outline it yourself. I am always on the lookout for a good read, even if I am not ultimately convinced.

There actually have been what I believe are decent breakdowns of the timeline and other things in the text that could be interpreted to support the Theon Durden theory but I haven't seen them for awhile now. If I get a chance (i.e. search function is working, etc.) maybe I'll look around a bit. If they can be easily found I'll link them again. Then again, if you really are interested in them you can always look through previous threads on the topic yourself ;)

My reference to the movies was an attempt to try and understand why some readers may be partial to the durden theory, possibly due to a false analogy with these films. And while I did not come up with the name, it is most commonly called the durden theory for a reason :)

Oh, it sure seemed to me that you were offering up a few movies with split personalities, etc. in them to establish that as a "Hollywood trope" and then implying that Martin would be above engaging in such a trope. If you were instead implying that those sorts of movies were influencing subscribers to the Theon Durden theory then I apologize but I certainly also disagree with that. That's not where I got the idea. I got the idea from my interpretation of the relevant passage(s).

You are mistaken to think my referencing of Hollywood was an attempt to argue how GRRM may have been influenced, since of course I don't think that the durden theory reflects what he wrote in the least.

Yes, as I said above this is what I thought you may be doing and I just pointed out that Martin may very well have had the idea before those movies were even made. Again, I apologize. But you did say something like you would give Martin "more credit" than actually engaging in a "Theon Durden"-type scenario. Which, of course, I disagree with because I don't think it's necessarily bad writing or a trope at all. It all depends on who's writing about it and how they treat it. One thing's for sure, I'm going to love finding out if I'm right or wrong! :)

[the old dude]

Sort of funny how such a small interaction has inspired all this curiosity. Count me amongst the curious. There are quite a few plausilbe candidates but my money is on Hallis Mollen being the hooded man. Here is why.

1 He was last seen escorting Ned's bones back to Winterfell. The "Theon" chapter prior to HM's appearance just happened to have another Northerner making sure the way to the crypts was clear.

2 Their easy interaction gives me the sense that HM and Theon are not strangers. It also follows this obsevation Cat has about Hal. "and [has] a loose tongue as well."acok 484.

3 Hal was Winterfell's guard captain. Whether the HM needs to move around the castle incognito or just blend in with the other average joes, Hal's familiarity with Winterfell would help him avoid being recognized as "out of place" by the Boltons.

4 In aGoT when Cat tells Robb and Theon about Lysa's letter Hal had just stepped out of the room. During this conversation Theon tells Cat that "Lord Eddard is a second father to me." and "...my house owes yours a great debt." If hal Knew what Theon said it would explain the insults of turncloak, kinslayer, and false.

5 Cat gives us these other obsevations about Hallis Mollen. "He was always a man for stating the obvious." aGoT 697 "He had a penchant for loudly announcing the obvious."aCoK 340 Notice how the Hooded Man identifies Theon twice before actually talking to him. "Theon turncloak. Theon kinslayer." That strikes me as a Hal Mollen type of greeting.

6 Hallis Mollen = HM = Hooded Man :cool4:

Have a nice day all.

[mushroomshirt]

... we are all just speculating ...

... no proof either way ...

Just want to chime in that I agree with that really there can be nothing conclusive on the HM until (hopefully) he is revealed in WoW. It's lots of fun to speculate though! PotN, major kudos to you if HM=Theon ;)

[Prince of the North]

Just want to chime in that I agree with that really there can be nothing conclusive on the HM until (hopefully) he is revealed in WoW. It's lots of fun to speculate though! PotN, major kudos to you if HM=Theon ;)

Well, the Theon Durden theory isn't mine alone and, of course, kudos to anyone whose theory about anything happens to be true. I remember being pretty jacked when my belief that the Three-Eyed Crow was none other than Bloodraven was finally confirmed after about five years of sticking to my guns. But while we wait to find out the truth about all these countless theories I definitely agree that it sure is fun to speculate! ;)

[snowynightfall]

Sort of funny how such a small interaction has inspired all this curiosity. Count me amongst the curious. There are quite a few plausilbe candidates but my money is on Hallis Mollen being the hooded man. Here is why.

1 He was last seen escorting Ned's bones back to Winterfell. The "Theon" chapter prior to HM's appearance just happened to have another Northerner making sure the way to the crypts was clear.

2 Their easy interaction gives me the sense that HM and Theon are not strangers. It also follows this obsevation Cat has about Hal. "and [has] a loose tongue as well."acok 484.

3 Hal was Winterfell's guard captain. Whether the HM needs to move around the castle incognito or just blend in with the other average joes, Hal's familiarity with Winterfell would help him avoid being recognized as "out of place" by the Boltons.

4 In aGoT when Cat tells Robb and Theon about Lysa's letter Hal had just stepped out of the room. During this conversation Theon tells Cat that "Lord Eddard is a second father to me." and "...my house owes yours a great debt." If hal Knew what Theon said it would explain the insults of turncloak, kinslayer, and false.

5 Cat gives us these other obsevations about Hallis Mollen. "He was always a man for stating the obvious." aGoT 697 "He had a penchant for loudly announcing the obvious."aCoK 340 Notice how the Hooded Man identifies Theon twice before actually talking to him. "Theon turncloak. Theon kinslayer." That strikes me as a Hal Mollen type of greeting.

6 Hallis Mollen = HM = Hooded Man :cool4:

Have a nice day all.

When I realized #6 that's when it really sunk in for me and I've been a believer ever since. Hallis Mollen = HM folks! It truly fits. Hell, his destination was Winterfell! That's kinda cool.

Beautiful post, the old dude!!! :)

[Brother Seamus]

I see now that a central reason there are so many theories on this, and a central reason it's so hard to interpret, is that the whole issue of whether Theon does or does not know the HM is ambiguous; and it's ambiguous whether the HM is surprised to see Theon, and, if so, whether he's surprised to see him still alive at all i.e. was up until that moment unaware of his continued existence, much less his presence at winterfell; or just surprised to see him at that moment, even though he was aware of his presence at winterfell.

my reading/assumption was that Theon did not recognize the HM, but the HM was not necessarily surprised to see Theon, and not necessarily unaware of his presence in winterfell.

neither of those is necessarily true.

if Theon did recognize the HM, but we're just not told, the Hallis Mollen theory among others looks pretty appealing.

[Meddler]

I see now that a central reason there are so many theories on this, and a central reason it's so hard to interpret, is that the whole issue of whether Theon does or does not know the HM is ambiguous; and it's ambiguous whether the HM is surprised to see Theon, and, if so, whether he's surprised to see him still alive at all i.e. was up until that moment unaware of his continued existence, much less his presence at winterfell; or just surprised to see him at that moment, even though he was aware of his presence at winterfell.

my reading/assumption was that Theon did not recognize the HM, but the HM was not necessarily surprised to see Theon, and not necessarily unaware of his presence in winterfell.

neither of those is necessarily true.

if Theon did recognize the HM, but we're just not told, the Hallis Mollen theory among others looks pretty appealing.

I agree with this. My interpretation was not necessarily that the HM was surprised to find Theon in Winterfell or alive. He was probably surprised to see Theon at that moment, but that's not unusual given the conditions under which they met. I actually read it that he wasn't surprised that Theon was alive, and that the "how is it you still breathe?" line was more a rhetorical insult than expression of belief that Theon had perished. Kind of saying "how has no one killed you yet for the things you've done?" rather than "wow, you're still alive?"

[Brother Seamus]

I agree with this. My interpretation was not necessarily that the HM was surprised to find Theon in Winterfell or alive. He was probably surprised to see Theon at that moment, but that's not unusual given the conditions under which they met. I actually read it that he wasn't surprised that Theon was alive, and that the "how is it you still breathe?" line was more a rhetorical insult than exp<b></b>ression of belief that Theon had perished. Kind of saying "how has no one killed you yet for the things you've done?" rather than "wow, you're still alive?"

that's how I read it too.

[Aluminum Link]

...Nor would Theon's condition instantly mark him as 'Theon' to someone who (1) has never met him and (2) obviously is surprised to find him at liberty.

I disagree that (2) is obvious. I'm not even convinced it's true. There are lots of ways the dialogue can be interpreted because it's been written so vaguely (and very unlike typical ASOIAF GRRM). For example, when he says how is it you still breathe? the HM may have personal reasons for wanting to know what makes Theon go on living despite his miserable existence.

He grabs his dagger with the intent of doing Theon harm, not out of fear (or so I read it). This is personal for him.

I agree that Davos is excluded by the apparent visceral hatred of the HM for Theon.

Again, there are lots of ways to interpret the passage.

The HM is not neccessarily angry with Theon. Nor is he necessarily afraid of Theon in a direct sense.

Instead, the HM may be afraid of what Theon's reaction will be or is simply afraid of being found out. He could be putting his hand to his dagger because he's trying to go unnoticed in enemy territory and has just made the mistake of making eye contact with someone who might make him for one who doesn't belong. The HM may be ready to silence Theon if it seems like there is a danger. But seeing not, he relaxes.

In summary, regardless of who I think the HM is, I think one has to be very careful about how the HM passage is read. It is (I believe) written with the intent to deceive. And even if you don't believe that, it's definitely written ambiguously enough that it's wide open for interpretation.

And more generally he is not someone who I see as being a candidate, because he's just not part of the general Theon/Stark/nortmen portion of the story. Although, obviously, he's now drawn into it by virtue of Manderly sending him to get Rickon. But still.

Gah? No one is a part of another's storyline until they are. And whether he wants it or not, Davos is now a key part of the events in the North. As is Stannis. And all of these events are coming to a head in the area in and around Winterfell. Why is it so hard to believe Davos would be a part of it?

[mushroomshirt]

In summary, regardless of who I think the HM is, I think one has to be very careful about how the HM passage is read. It is (I believe) written with the intent to deceive. And even if you don't believe that, it's definitely written ambiguously enough that it's wide open for interpretation.

I think this is exactly right. The HM encounter seems like it was written with "us" in mind. And by "us" I mean the people who will dissect every portion of the story for years while we wait for the next book to come out. In my imagination HM is GRRM's revenge for the internet figuring out R+L=J.

As PotN alluded to earlier there is simply not enough information to identify the HM. It is really a Rorschach test for all of us. For me my logic tells me that it is Hal Mollin or Robett Glover. I can't really believe that GRRM would make it such a minor character as Ser Kyle despite many excellent arguments in support of him. I really really don't want it to be HM=Theon just because it doesn't fit with my idea of what ASoIaF should be. And I would love it if it were Jaime Lannister, I just don't see how he can get up to Winterfell in a timely manner or why he would be there at all.

[Xanrn]

I doubt it is Hallis, because I doubt he would try and sneak Ned's bones into an occuppied Winterfell. Far too much risk of Ned bones being found and used as playthings. No Hallis is in Greywatch Watch, eating fried Gator and listening to dueling banjos.

It is not Davos either, Manderly wanted Davos to go to Skagos which is an island off the east coast, Manderly had built alot of ships, Manderly wanted Davos to smuggle Rickon off Skagos. Why in the name of hell, would Davos be in Winterfell? Got a bit lost sailing to Skagos?

It is not Benjen. No way no how.

Ser Kyle Condon is more than likely dead at the hand of the Mountain along with the rest of his men. Lol at Roose trying to save them from the Red Wedding, he fed them to the Mountain to rid himself of the last of the Stark Loyalists in his Army.

[STRONG LIKE BEAR]

It is Theon.

[alienarea]

I doubt it is Hallis, because I doubt he would try and sneak Ned's bones into an occuppied Winterfell. Far too much risk of Ned bones being found and used as playthings. No Hallis is in Greywatch Watch, eating fried Gator and listening to dueling banjos.

It is not Davos either, Manderly wanted Davos to go to Skagos which is an island off the east coast, Manderly had built alot of ships, Manderly wanted Davos to smuggle Rickon off Skagos. Why in the name of hell, would Davos be in Winterfell? Got a bit lost sailing to Skagos?

It is not Benjen. No way no how.

Ser Kyle Condon is more than likely dead at the hand of the Mountain along with the rest of his men. Lol at Roose trying to save them from the Red Wedding, he fed them to the Mountain to rid himself of the last of the Stark Loyalists in his Army.

Davos is known to do things in an effective way. He might have sailed to Skagos and returned, and then heads to Winterfell to report to Manderly what he found.

[Black Wolf Smith]

Damn, I can't even keep Raynald Westerling on the list of possibles.

[Bran Vras]

These days, I only come to the boards for old friends. A few things compel me to make an exception here. First, King Tyrion VI was kind enough to mention my analysis in the OP. Secondly, so much traffic comes to my site from this thread. Thirdly, I feel I have to amend my analysis of the hooded man (an update will appear soon).

Before I come to that, I must say that I am interested in the new suggestion of this thread which cast Kyle Condon as the hooded man. I might have considered him at a point, but I just recall having been stuck trying to find out what the six hundred men left by Roose at the Ruby Ford have become and wondering if GRRM himself had not forgotten about them. The fact that Ser Kyle has been mentioned only once in the whole series, and never in ADwD makes me hesitate a bit though. I still have Robett Glover as the front runner, simply because so much in the White Harbor story (and the Harrenhal story) prepares us to see him play a role further on, and the logic of the kinslayer accusation had to go through him.

I regret now (a minor regret) that I didn't do justice to the subtlety of the dialogue between Rowan and Theon, and the ambiguity (and even double ambiguity) on the meaning of kinslaying. I have been warned of this by French readers, and even been shown the translation, which retains all the ambiguity. However, that doesn't change my conclusion that Rowan came to know that Theon has murdered his sons (or his son).

I plan to do something I swore I would not do: update my analysis. In particular, I have more to say about the hooded man – without making one iota of progress about his identity. I come here with a preview.

Let's return to the question with the goal of understanding what has happened after the encounter with Theon.

The first question is the nature of the visit. The hooded man seems to know Winterfell, since he strides towards the Hall without visibility. He comes across Theon in what has all reason to be a well frequented passage. So, the man makes no effort to hide his presence. At best he might be trying to hide his face, this might be why Theon does not recognize him.

Since the man wears no distinctive mark (no brooch, no badge, no distinctive cloak), while almost everybody in the castle does wear such a mark (notice how often Theon recognizes Cerwyn archers, Flints, Tallharts, etc), we can deduce that he doesn't want to advertise his identity. But not wearing such a mark could also attract attention on him. Indeed, Roose tells Theon that he has watchers everywhere. So I hardly believe the unknown man could hope to melt into the crowd to avoid notice, even if there are thousands of men in the castle. The fact that he talks to Theon, means that he is not that insistent on remaining anonymous. After all, he could have stayed quiet.

The man probably came through the Hunter's Gate, which is the only operational gate in the castle. Roger Ryswell has said a few days before that scouts sent recently through that gate do not come back. We can attribute the disappearance to Crowfood and his Green boys. Hence the complicity between Mors Umber and the hooded man (beside the kinslayer accusation I discussed in my analysis).

Since nobody leaves the castle without Roose's will, the hooded man could not expect Roose to let him leave. He still must be in the castle, dead or alive, at the time of the escape, the day following the visit. So either the man doesn't want to appear in full view, or he isn't considered a guest, or he left the castle.

Under all appearances, the man goes to the Great Hall. First, he came across Theon who had just left the Hall. Then, the snow limits circulation to the trenches, and Theon and the man met in a trench that leads to the Great Hall. Finally, the man wears a dagger as his only weapon. That might be in observance of the rule edicted by Roose: only daggers are allowed in the Great Hall.

So I am left with the notion that the man went to the Great Hall without fear to meet the master of the castle, and without much apprehension of being discovered. I presume he had showed up at the Hunter's Gate declaring his intention to meet Lord Bolton, perhaps to bring a message, or under another pretext. He was told to go to the Great Hall, but to leave his sword at the entrance. Only one minor thing disturbs me in this scenario: a Bolton man should have accompanied the hooded man to the Great Hall and announced the visitor to his Lord.

Since Theon never heard about the visit afterwards, it seems that the meeting, if it took place, is not widely known in the castle.

What could have happened in the Great Hall then?

Let's recall who was there before Theon left: Roose Bolton, Barbrey Dustin, some Freys, Abel, the Bastard's boys, and many more, including many horses and Ramsay's dogs. Virtually anybody, except Ramsay as the behaviour of his boys shows.

Meanwhile, Theon has been wandering in the castle. After a few hours, he is summoned by Roose to the solar. Let's have a close look at this scene.

Roose, Barbrey, Roger Ryswell and Aenys Frey are present. Barbrey is severe and pale faced, while she asked Abel for cheerful songs a few hours before. Obviously something has affected her mood. Aenys Frey visibly comes from outside, not from the Great Hall. (There is a direct path indoors from the Great Keep to the Great Hall.) But there were Freys in the Great Hall when Theon left. Did Aenys leave the Hall for some reason? Here again, the absence of Ramsay is noticeable. But it is not surprising. Ramsay was a pariah in Barrowton. Roose held a war council while Ramsay was occupied by his wedding night. This very day, Ramsay has disobeyed his father by divulging Yellow Dick's death.

The conversation in the solar turns sour. Here are the salient points:

Roger Ryswell mentions Lord Wyman's lengthy visits to the privy, which suggests, in view of what happened in White Harbor, that Manderly has used the pretext to meet someone secretly.

The command addressed to Theon to show his hands is very interesting and seems to echo the meeting with the hooded man. I tend to believe that Theon showed his hand, not because the man was special to him, but because he felt he had to defend himself after the man has put the hand on the dagger and threatened him. The man has seen the hand and heard that Ramsay has crippled Theon.

It is widely known that Theon has been skinned here and there by Ramsay. But the mutilation is not common knowledge. And Theon hides his missing parts, out of shame. It's likely that Barbrey is aware of Theon's state, since she had him dressed for the wedding and had hosted him in Barrowton. But Aenys Frey might not be aware of the extent of Theon's plight. Both Barbrey and Aenys ask to see Theon's hand. It's as if they had discussed the matter just before Theon's arrival, following, we can guess, a mention by the hooded man, either in Aenys' presence or repeated to Aenys.

Another detail might allude to a conversation with the man. When Theon says he was once a ward in Winterfell, Roose corrects him: he was a hostage. It's what Roose could have objected, or simply thought, if someone had stated in his presence that Theon is a kinslayer. (For Roose, kinslaying is defined by blood relations, but he could have understood another meaning in someone else.)

The most interesting aspect of the scene is the behavior of Barbrey Dustin, supported apparently by Roger Ryswell. First she insists heavily on Ramsay's cruelty, uses the dreaded word bastard, in the presence of Roose. But we already knew that she hated Ramsay, and she called Ramsay a bastard in a private conversation with Roose in Barrowton. That shows that Ramsay is not respected in the circle around Roose. Whether the hate for Ramsay is currently reaching new heights is unclear.

More interestingly even, Barbrey suddenly raises the issue of the Red Wedding, in Roose's presence. But she puts all the blame on the Freys. Previously, Barbrey had mentioned that Walda could become Roose's queen. So her attitude has changed. Roose said in Barrowton that Barbrey would remain loyal to him if a Stark boy were to resurface. He didn't say anything about her reaction if she were to know all the truth about the Red Wedding (recall that Roose had taken the precaution to spare at least some men from Barrowton and the Rills before the wedding). However, Barbrey told Theon that she knows that Roose has "removed the Young Wolf".

I have discussed at length in my analysis the severe mistrust between Ramsay and the Freys. By telling the Freys that they are not welcome in the north and by underlining the cruelty of Ramsay, Barbrey is likely to increase the tension around the inheritance of the Dreadfort.

Roose attempts to calm the situation, which seems increasingly out of control. Barbrey, the Freys and Ramsay are mutually incompatible allies now. That might contribute to Roose's decision the next day: sending the Freys out to fight Stannis, hoping thus to get rid of two problems at once (and a third problem: Manderly).

That is the last time we see Barbrey Dustin. In particular, she is not present during the last scene in the great hall, where every other character of note is present (except maester Henly, and a few Ryswells). It is likely to be significant, but in what sense?

Let's return now to the hooded man. I tend to conclude from all this that the man met at least Barbrey and Roose, and brought news calculated to drive a wedge between the Dustin/Ryswells and the Freys. Judging from the conversation, it might be about the Red Wedding.

Or it might include as well the news of the survival of the Stark children, which is embarrassing for Roose just before the battle, and would leave Ramsay useless for his father. There isn't much in the conversation in the solar that would let us believe that such news reached Roose. If it were the case, I suppose Theon would be questioned – unless Roose considers Theon to be so much Ramsay's creature that questioning would be useless. However, Ramsay had told Roose that the Stark boys have escaped. The hooded man could have come with the news that Bran and Rickon hid in the crypts, with a potential proof: the disappearance of the swords. ("Go and see the tombs with your own eyes if you don't believe me".) Or course that would make Barbrey blemish, since she had seen the disappearance of the swords.

That would suppose that the conspirators outside of Winterfell knew about the disappearance of the swords. It doesn't seem that Wex could have told Glover. But Osha left Winterfell with Ned Stark's sword, which bears the mark of Mikken. As it happens, Mikken is mentioned by Crowfood when "Arya" is questioned after the escape. Crowfood even goes out of his way to praise Mikken's steel. An hint to keep in mind at any rate – remember you heard it here first!

However, I find unlikely that the hooded man reported the survival of Bran and Rickon. If the man is Ronnel Stout, he could have reported to his liege lady what he had witnessed before the Red Wedding, or tell about the thousand corpses of northmen floating on the Green Fork. Indeed Roose left the six hundred men led by Stout and Condon at the Ruby Ford, ideally placed to see the extent of the massacre.

However, I can hardly believe that Barbrey has much to learn about what happened during the war, since she had her own spies within Robb's army (or so she says). She has no illusion about Roose's responsibility for the demise of Robb Stark. The absence of any distinctive mark on the hooded man doesn't fit with Ronnel Stout (or Kyle Condon).

I am left with one reasonable hypothesis. The hooded man reported Jaime Lannister's command to transfer the prisoners at the Twins to the Iron Throne. The chronology seems to allow it (Jaime freed Wylis Manderly in Harrenhal, then went to Darry and Riverun. Meanwhile Wylis made his longer journey to White Harbor, and at least three monthes elapsed between his arrival and the hooded man in Winterfell.) So a raven might have been sent to Mors Umber to bring news of his liege lord (the Brotherhood has spies in Riverun and friends among the Riverlords). Mors might have told the hooded man in turn.

In any case, Barbrey Dustin does mention the captivity of the Greatjon to Aenys Frey. The loss of the prisoners means a loss of political weight for the Freys. It might explain that Barbrey considers them non viable allies. Of course, their army is still valuable for fighting Stannis. This would explain why Roose decided to sent them to battle the next day.

The essence of all this resides in the question: what did the hooded man do or say that disturbed so much Barbrey Dustin?