[Book Spoilers]The "Episode 9" Moment of Season 4

[Gannicus]

You are the one who is clueless.

They made 2 fucking seasons of ASOS. ADWD is as big as ASOS, and then you have AFFC on that.

In fact, ADWD + AFFC is more than 1.5 times ASOS, yet ASOS got 2 seasons and some of you guys thinks that ADWD + AFFC will only have 1 season?

There is no chance ADWD and AFFC will be 2+ seasons. The producers have said 7 seasons and 8o episodes before.

If they try to turn ADWD and AFFC into 2 full season the producers know the show is toast.

[JonDunn]

There is not enough of an arc for two seasons for ANY character in the AFFC/ADWD plot.

Fact.

[The Monkey]

Maybe season 5 will cover all of AFFC and the point where ADWD catches up, but not beyond. An ending of Dany riding away on her lizard would be good, which means the rest of ADWD will be in season 6, along with TWOW material (if they got it).

[JonDunn]

I do think Dany riding away on her dragon would be a good season ending.

[Davos' Middle Finger]

I do think that at the very latest they will be completely caught up to the books by the end of Season 5. Assuming Season 4 airs spring 2014, Season 5 spring 2015 and Season 6 spring 2016 that gives GRRM three more years to finish TWOW, which should probably be enough. Though I would not be surprised at all if they push further in Season 5.

[Sopranos With Swords]

ignore

[Khal-a-bunga]

I do think that at the very latest they will be completely caught up to the books by the end of Season 5. Assuming Season 4 airs spring 2014, Season 5 spring 2015 and Season 6 spring 2016 that gives GRRM three more years to finish TWOW, which should probably be enough. Though I would not be surprised at all if they push further in Season 5.

Actually, with the current production cycle, The Winds of Winter would need to be released well before season five airs in order for the show to continue without interruption. For instance, we know that Martin is writing the second episode of the season, and that he had turned in his first draft prior to the premiere of the third season. Shooting on the fourth season will begin in July, so it's very likely that all of the final drafts for the entire season have already been turned in and approved (not that re-writes can't occur at this point; a script is finalized after a budget has been approved, even if there are changes made between that time and shooting), though a few details may still need to be nailed down.

So yeah, Martin will have to release the book some time in 2014 to keep the production schedule intact, and even then it's likely that he'd have to send D&D his manuscript pages in order for them to get a broad idea of how to outline the sixth season while they're shooting season four. Then again, maybe they went over all of this when they met with George a few months ago, and they have a pretty good idea of how everything will play out in The Winds of Winter.

Still, George is seriously 'laying the track' with the train on his heels. Think about it this way:

2014: Season four airs; writing and shooting of the fifth season.

2015: Season five airs; writing and shooting on the sixth season.

2016: Sixth season airs; writing and shooting on the seventh season.

...so you can see where there is a problem with assuming that Martin has "three more years" to finish the next book. In all actuality, he needs to have the book finished before the end of 2014, and he'd better hope that it's worth splitting into two seasons or the show will absolutely overtake the book series.

I've mentioned this before, but I think we're going to see an extended season when A Feast for Crows & A Dance with Dragon are adapted. Once True Blood ends in 2014, I'm assuming that HBO will move Game of Thrones into that spot. Why? Because there's less competition for the show during the summer, and it would give the production team an additional 2 months to film 2-3 additional episodes for the season. At that point, the show moves back into a schedule that only allows for ten episodes once again (which should be fine, considering this will be the only season that adapts two books into a single season).

So they adapt The Winds of Winter into two seasons, which takes the show to seven seasons total. At that time, the main cast of the show that has been around since the first season will be up for a contract re-negotiation, which will probably work out to one additional season for A Dream of Spring, which will not only be an extended final season, but may or may not release before, in tandem with, or after the final book is released. In an ideal situation, the final book and the final season would be released almost simultaneously, creating a massive amount of hype for both the book release and the last season of the show. Very much a win-win situation for them.

Prospective timeline (continued):

2017: Seventh season airs; hopefully shooting can begin on a final extended season using information provided by Martin himself.

2018-19: It would be mutually beneficial for the show and Martin to release the final season alongside the final book, so HBO may delay the extended final season until the book has released, or do the same thing they did with The Sopranos, and produce a split season (which is technically two seasons, but is named Season 8.A & Season 8.B for contractual reasons).

But, then again, who the fuck knows...?

[YuvalTheVal]

Oh my god, if the final book was released the same time the final season start, that would be epic as hell. SO much buzz, the internet will explode.

[Moseh Khayim]

I've thought so too. He'll probably leave in episode 1 or 2, then not show up again until 6 or 7. At least he's there awhile before Jon gets voted LC, and interacts with Sam, Aemon, and Jon, so eventually he'll get more screen time/importance. Who knows about Davos, though.

I thought Davos mentioned something about rallying certain lords behind Stannis´ cause. That Stannis would need him to rebuild his army.

[Werthead]

So yeah, Martin will have to release the book some time in 2014 to keep the production schedule intact, and even then it's likely that he'd have to send D&D his manuscript pages in order for them to get a broad idea of how to outline the sixth season while they're shooting season four. Then again, maybe they went over all of this when they met with George a few months ago, and they have a pretty good idea of how everything will play out in The Winds of Winter.

Yeah, I don't think it's necessary for the book to come out that early. If the book comes out in late 2015 or the first three months of 2016 (ahead of Season 6, which we assume will adapt TWoW, maybe with some material spilling into Season 7), that's fine as long as GRRM gives the manuscript (he should have almost all of it done before they start writing the season in January 2015, may just not edited and not with a final polish) beforehand.

I've mentioned this before, but I think we're going to see an extended season when A Feast for Crows & A Dance with Dragon are adapted. Once True Blood ends in 2014, I'm assuming that HBO will move Game of Thrones into that spot. Why? Because there's less competition for the show during the summer, and it would give the production team an additional 2 months to film 2-3 additional episodes for the season. At that point, the show moves back into a schedule that only allows for ten episodes once again (which should be fine, considering this will be the only season that adapts two books into a single season).

The only problem with that is that we don't know if True Blood will finish next year. I'm actually hoping it will go on for a bit longer, as an eight-season True Blood would make me (and HBO, probably) more confident that we can also get an eight-season Game of Thrones.

So they adapt The Winds of Winter into two seasons, which takes the show to seven seasons total. At that time, the main cast of the show that has been around since the first season will be up for a contract re-negotiation, which will probably work out to one additional season for A Dream of Spring, which will not only be an extended final season, but may or may not release before, in tandem with, or after the final book is released. In an ideal situation, the final book and the final season would be released almost simultaneously, creating a massive amount of hype for both the book release and the last season of the show. Very much a win-win situation for them.

It's a nice idea but I think unworkable. I don't think it's likely that GRRM will get Book 7 out ahead of the TV show (it TWoW really doesn't hit until 2015, we can say impossible, relegated to highly improbable if he does get it out somehow in late 2014). I don't think they will have time for a 2-season TWoW or ADoS either.

[Khal-a-bunga]

@ Werthead

Sure, just being optimistic with my predictions, for the most part. Except where True Blood is concerned. From the people I've spoken with, the initial contracts are up after next season, and that's that. Which makes sense. The show - while ultimately a good bit of pulp fiction (especially during the first three seasons) - has run its course. Alan Ball has moved on, and Mark Hudis lasted only a few episodes before the current show-runner (Brian Buckner) took over those duties for the sixth season. Obviously nothing is set in stone, but I wouldn't expect the show to be renewed after next season, leaving the summer spot open for another series. Whether that show is Game of Thrones or not, a new series will be taking that scheduling spot.

As for everything else... I'll take the wait-and-see approach. There are so many determining factors that I was essentially just playing 'What if?' anyway, but I agree that - as long as Martin provides the manuscript to D&D - The Winds of Winter could be released some time in 2015, and it wouldn't effect the production schedule. Still, if Martin ever had a reason to buckle down and get to work, this would be it. But a small part of me feels like Martin is stalling, because the story has gotten away from him. I know that's a bit of a pessimistic view to take, but after Martin lambasted the creators of Lost regarding how they ended their series, I've always... I've had an issue with how he approached that. Damon Lindelof & Carlton Cuse didn't have as much time as they wanted to tell their story; their schedule was dictated by the network. And then, for A Dance with Dragons to share some of the same issues as the final few seasons of that show, it struck me as both ironic and agitating.

...meh'. In any case, hope for the best and prepare for the worst. I can see the show going for longer than seven seasons, but eight seems like the limit. That doesn't necessarily mean that it will equate to 80 hours exactly (in terms of the number of episodes, not the running time), but you may be right - each season may stick strictly to the ten episode format. I just don't know that the two latest books can be satisfactorily told in just ten episodes, but two seasons isn't feasible, either. It's certainly a conundrum, and I don't envy D&D their job in figuring it all out.

[The Anti-Targ]

Battle at the Wall E9. I think LCJS will be early S5.

They won't have skirmish for Castle Black given Tormund is runniing out of people south of the Wall. Instead Tormund and Ygritte will try to sneak in under cover of night and open the tunnel. Yg will die Tormund will be taken prisoner. That will all be in one 2 minutes scene fairly early in the season.

E10 will end with Tyrion killing Shae and Tywin, going back to the tunnel and telling Varys "let's get out of here."

[Waylin Stark]

Episode 9 will be the Viper vs the Mountain.

This will fit with Jaime releasing Tyrion in ep 10 and Tyrion escaping to Essos after killing Shae and Tywin.

Littlefinger killing Lysa will be towards the end of ep 10.

Last "cliffhanger" scene would be Return of Cat.

Purple Wedding will happen around ep 5. Before that will be necessary to introduce Mace Tyrell, Oberyn Martell, etc. Also there has to be an increase of friction between Tyrion/Shae and Joffrey/Tywin. We need some Oberyn-Tyrion scenes. Eps 6,7,8 (any 2) would deal with Tyrion's trial.

This also gives 4-5 eps for Sansa to travel to the Eyrie and meet Lysa.

The battle at the Wall will happen in ep 6 maybe. Last few episodes are of Stannis arriving, Jon becoming LC.

Dany has loads of story to cover, anything can happen.

Also, to fill in the spaces, there'll be some Asha and Greyjoy scenes (Balon dying).

I am worried about Bran and Arya. 90% of their storylines for book 3 are over. Most likely we'll see some expanded scenes and overall less screentime. Maybe Arya and Sandor keep running into Freys, and talking about killing, and Bran has more visions and Meera tells old stories.

Same for Davos.

[Aerys Blackfyre]

my pick would be tyrion escaping and killing tywin/sahe

:agree:

[dalrymple123]

I've posted this elsewhere, but oh well, here goes:

SEASON 4:

Ep. 1- Joffrey receives wedding gifts, and Tyrion welcomes Dorne to KL. Sucks to be Theon. (Maybe something with Davos)

Ep. 2- KL hosts a wedding. Shit hits the fan. Sansa busts a move. Tyrion is thrown in jail. Aemon tends to Jon at CB.

Ep. 3- Jamie & Brienne reach KL. Arya & the Hound make for the Eyrie. Dany heads for Mereen. Bran goes north of the wall. Sansa meets her savior. Jon preps CB for attack from the South.

Ep. 4- Ygritte's dies. Tyrion discusses with his uncle. Loras confronts Brienne. Cersei and Jamie have a warm reunion. Still sucks to be Theon. Stannis threatens Davos. Davos reads a letter. Sansa meets her aunt.

Ep. 5- Jon preps CB for attack from the North. Tyrion sends Pod for help. Jamie and his father have a less-than warm reunion. Arya & the Hound stop at an inn. Dany plots to take Mereen. Jorah makes uncomfortable advances.

Ep. 6- Tyrion has a chat with Oberyn. Part 1 of the trial. Jon defends the wall. Arya shows no mercy to the Hound. Sansa goes to the vale. Jamie convinces Loras to talk with Brienne.

Ep. 7- Alliser Thorne throws Jon in an ice cell. Part 2 of Tyrion's trial; Varys and Shae feature. Still sucks to be Theon. Bran wanders north. Dany does very little. Sansa meets her new betrothed.

Ep. 8- Jon is released to go parlay with Mance. Tyrion demands trial by battle. He is sent to the black cells. Jamie gives Brienne a new quest. Arya sells her horse to buy passage to the Wall.

Ep. 9- Jamie saves Tyrion. Tyrion gets back at Shae. Tywin doesn't shit gold. Jon talks with Mance, sees the horn of winter. Sansa builds a snow castle. Dany sends her sewer rats into Mereen.

Ep. 10- Stannis saves the day! Dany takes Mereen. Arya learns what saying Valar Morghulis gets you. Littlefinger: "Only Cat." Maybe we finally meet Un-Cat. Still sucks to be Theon.

SEASON 5:

Ep. 1: Arya arrives in Braavos. Littlefinger plots with Sansa. Stannis makes Jon an offer, while Sam organizes a vote. Jamie heads to the Riverlands. Ramsey takes Theon to Winterfell. Tyrion meets Illyrio.

Ep. 2: Brienne meets Pod. Illyrio sends Tyrion on his way. Dany confronts Jorah. Bran meets Bloodraven. Margaery marries Tommen. Victarion sets sail for Mereen. Arianne plots to make Myrcella a queen. Arya meets a kindly man. Davos meets Wyman Manderly.

Ep. 3: Jon becomes LC. He explains to Stannis how to take the north. Arya starts training. Tyrion sets sail with some Griffs. Mel burns “Mance”. Dany gets a marriage proposal. Theon visits Winterfell’s godswood. Bran looks through a tree.

Ep. 4: Sansa learns from Littlefinger. Arianne is imprisoned. Sam is sent to Oldtown with Gilly and Aemon. Jamie negotiates with the Blackfish. Cersei plots against Margaery. Tyrion stops at a brothel, and meets Jorah.

Ep. 5: Brienne meets a kindly septon and a large gravedigger. Dany has a wedding. Sam stops in Braavos. Arya/Cat of the Canals continues her training. Jon and Mel talk about daggers in the dark. Tyrion finds himself on another boat heading for Mereen. Davos finds himself on a boat to Skagos.

Ep. 6: Winterfell hosts a wedding. Stannis captures Deepwood Motte/Yara. Brienne meets Lady Stoneheart. Sansa and Sweet Robin travel to the Gates of the Moon. Theon visits Winterfell’s crypts. Tyrion and Jorah are taken captive by slavers. Jon makes a deal with Tormund and the Wildlings.

Ep. 7: Stannis is stuck in the snow. Cersei makes accusations against Margaery, and visits her in the sept. Dany re-opens the fighting pits in Mereen. Tyrion arrives in Mereen. Jon meets a banker from Braavos. The Wildlings cross the wall. Cersei is imprisoned. Arya goes blind.

Ep. 8: Cersei goes for a walk. Littlefinger lets Sansa in on a plan. Theon, Abel and the washerwomen hatch a plan. Jamie gets a visit from Brienne. Jorah chafes against his new position as a slave. Sam and Gilly have an intimate moment.

Ep. 9. Jon reads a letter from Ramsey. Dany goes to the fighting pits, then for a dragon ride. Cersei is meek to her uncle Kevan. Theon meets Stannis. Victarion gets to Slaver’s Bay. Jon sees daggers in the dark.

Ep. 10: Battle at Mereen. Tyrion turns the Second Sons to Dany’s cause. Kevan meets Varys. Sam gets to Oldtown, meets Pate. Arya learns how to change her face.

They are not gonna finish ADWD and AFFC in one season. They split ASOS in half for television and although I dont think they'll spend too long, AFFC+ADWD wont finish until S6. S5 IMHO will end with Drogon flying off carrying Dany

[WinterisAlwaysComing]

Agreed.

Me too - On Tyrion's escape and killing Tywin/Shae.

Remember - GRRM is writing episode 2. Why would he pick that? Something big has to happen there. Gotta be the Purple Wedding. He's not gonna write about people setting up the flowers for the wedding and Jon being accused of treason by Janos Slynt, when the PW is nearby. The PW has to be Ep. 2.

[Pinkie Baelish]

Why do people assume that GRRM is automatically writing the episode with the big moments? The only time he was given this chance was Blackwater. Look at some of the major moments in the series: Jaime throwing Bran, Viserys' death, Ned's arrest, Ned's execution, Bran and Rickon's "deaths", the birth of the dragons, Daenerys sacking Astapor, the Red Wedding. These were all in episodes written by D and D. I think GRRM just happened to get episode 2, like how he happened to get ep7 in season 3. It might also be because we get an insight into Oberyn in this episode, and who better than GRRM to introduce new characters and Oberyn's vengeance?

Look at the past 3 seasons. There are no massive moments(apart from the ending to the pilot) that take place in the first two episodes. The first two are generally used as foundations for the rest of the season. Joffrey's death is a massive moment that is best used later, rather than them jumping the gun and using it immediately to swerve the audience.

[~No One~]

I do think Dany riding away on her dragon would be a good season ending.

It sure wasn't a good book ending :P

[~No One~]

They are not gonna finish ADWD and AFFC in one season. They split ASOS in half for television and although I dont think they'll spend too long, AFFC+ADWD wont finish until S6. S5 IMHO will end with Drogon flying off carrying Dany

If S5 ends with Dany flying away on Drogon, what are they going to use as material for S6? That scene was the end of book 5.

[~No One~]

Look at the past 3 seasons. There are no massive moments(apart from the ending to the pilot) that take place in the first two episodes. The first two are generally used as foundations for the rest of the season. Joffrey's death is a massive moment that is best used later, rather than them jumping the gun and using it immediately to swerve the audience.

I agree that in the past, episodes 1 and 2 were used to re-orient viewers and set the scene.

BUT, think about what has to happen next season: 7 deaths, 8 if you count Gregor Clegane, huge battle(s) at the Wall, a long trial that will surely take at least 2 episodes...

If we don't have the PW in ep 2 or 3 at the latest, they won't fit everything in. It's just logistics. Next season will be crammed full.