Littlefinger hired a Faceless Man to kill Ned

[HalfJobRob]

Since Ned was supposed to be going to the wall with Jaqen it's likely that Ned was the target... but if Jaqen wasn't there to kill Ned. Who at the wall would he have been sent to kill? And why did he not follow through? Benjen? The cocky young Royce who gets killed early on?

If Ned was the target, who else would want him dead?The question of why Jaqen was in Westeros is thoroughly vexing.

[LiveFirstDieLater]

Since Ned was supposed to be going to the wall with Jaqen it's likely that Ned was the target... but if Jaqen wasn't there to kill Ned. Who at the wall would he have been sent to kill? And why did he not follow through? Benjen? The cocky young Royce who gets killed early on?

If Ned was the target, who else would want him dead?The question of why Jaqen was in Westeros is thoroughly vexing.

if you want to be even more sinister could the goal have been to switch places?

[Lost Melnibonean]

Of all the reasons for Jaquen to be in a black cell, this one seems a bit obtuse...

Syrio being Jaquen makes the most sense to me, timelines work out, explains why he's in a cell, why he knows Arya, Braavos connection, etc...

but ok, looking for other options...

well it's true that LF has a family Braavos connection, that was really his grandfather, and he might have had money from being master of coin and good with the books, but it really doesn't seem a prudent investment.

Varys can change his face, we know had easy access to the black cells, he's playing a subtle game, and doesn't have scruples about killing people... Why not him? In fact, when he visits Ned in the black cells he starts the conversation by telling Ned he's already dead... Then explains how Cersei is going to offer that he takes the black and urges Ned to take the deal for Sansa's sake... Doesn't make much sense. 

Also, the Varys theory doesn't exclude Syrio being Jaquen... It explains both where Ned got the recommendation from and why a faceless man would work as Arya's Dancing master. Actually, look at how Varys tells Ned the Belarion kitten story on that visit... Presumably the same cat Arya is sent to chase by Syrio when she overhears Varys and Illyrio. Also, Syrio has his own cat story, which he tells Arya, about a cat that is only remarkable for being yellow and fat... Now who else is described like that? Oh ya, Illyrio...

Varys didna want The Ned to die. 

[HalfJobRob]

Varys didna want The Ned to die. 

I'm not so sure abour that, Varys is a mummer. And he killed Kevan L because he could've restored order to Westeros, as could Tywin and Ned. That would not do if Varys is supporting a Targ take over

[LiveFirstDieLater]

Varys didna want The Ned to die. 

Why do you say that?

[Prince of the North]

Since Ned was supposed to be going to the wall with Jaqen it's likely that Ned was the target... but if Jaqen wasn't there to kill Ned. Who at the wall would he have been sent to kill? And why did he not follow through? Benjen? The cocky young Royce who gets killed early on?

If Ned was the target, who else would want him dead?The question of why Jaqen was in Westeros is thoroughly vexing.

You're right, it is.  My theory is that Jaqen was not on a mission to kill anyone.  I believe he was sent on a mission to gather intel on dragons because they had recently reappeared in the world.  If you are in the business of killing, it could be advantageous to know how to kill/neutralize the most powerful creature/weapon in the world, amirite?  

Septon Barth knew and wrote much of dragons but his writings were ordered destroyed by Baelor the Blessed.  Of course, a few copies (or, at least, parts) of Barth's books probably still survive but they are rare.  Some likely places to look for them would be remote places far from KL and even the rest of the Seven Kingdoms.  Remote places like the library at Castle Black maybe?  That's why I think Jaqen got himself thrown in the black cells - to be sent to the Wall.  It would be a great way to be immediately accepted into the NW and even better, imo, than simply walking up and volunteering.  If he were to walk up and volunteer he'd need a much more iron-clad cover story because it's somewhat rare and only some nobles seem to do it anymore but if he's just another common criminal then no one would even give it a second thought.

Now, as we know, Jaqen going to the Wall didn't work out.  Then we seemingly see him surface again in Old Town securing a certain key.  Could this key gain access to some of Barth's forbidden dragon writings that the Citadel might still have around?  I think the answer is - maybe.  

Like I said, it's just a flimsy theory, but it's what I'm going with for now. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

You're right, it is.  My theory is that Jaqen as not on a mission to kill anyone.  I believe he was sent on a mission to gather intel on dragons because they had recently reappeared in the world.  If you are in the business of killing, it could be advantageous to know how to kill/neutralize the most powerful creature/weapon in the world, amirite?  

Septon Barth knew and wrote much of dragons but his writings were ordered destroyed by Baelor the Blessed.  Of course, a few copies (or, at least, parts) of Barth's books probably still survive but they are rare.  Some likely places to look for them would be remote places far from KL and even the rest of the Seven Kingdoms.  Remote places like the library at Castle Black maybe?  That's why I think Jaqen got himself thrown in the black cells - to be sent to the Wall.  It would be a great way to be immediately accepted into the NW and even better, imo, than simply walking up and volunteering.  If he were to walk up and volunteer he'd need a much more iron-clad cover story because it's somewhat rare and only some nobles seem to do it anymore but if he's just another common criminal then no one would even give it a second thought.

Now, as we know, Jaqen going to the Wall didn't work out.  Then we seemingly see him surface again in Old Town securing a certain key.  Could this key gain access to some of Barth's forbidden dragon writings that the Citadel might still have around?  I think the answer is - maybe.  

Like I said, it's just a flimsy theory, but it's what I'm going with for now. 

If he wanted to get into the library at Castle Black, why go there via the Black Cells. There would have been much simpler and more direct paths. And didn't he continue on to Castle Black? 

[Prince of the North]

If he wanted to get into the library at Castle Black, why go there via the Black Cells. There would have been much simpler and more direct paths. And didn't he continue on to Castle Black? 

What more simple and direct path?  Do you mean just traveling there and asking for access to the library?  If that's what you mean then maybe.  I was just thinking actually being a member of the NW would make it easier  I'm not sure what the reaction to just walking up and asking to peruse the library's texts would be.  Like I said, it's just a theory but I think it has some merit because of what we were shown later at Old Town...but it's certainly pretty flimsy.  

ETA: Oh, and no, I don't recall Jaqen ever being shown at Castle Black (maybe I'm forgetting...)  I don't think we see him after he leaves Harrenhal until we see someone closely matching the description of the face he "revealed" to Arya reappear in Old Town and poison Pate (to steal the key).

[Lost Melnibonean]

As to why Varys did not want Eddard dead, we know that Varys wanted to delay the brewing Lannister-Stark war. Varys brokered the deal that would have sent Eddard to the Wall. He would have remained Lord of Winterfell until he was at the Wall and pledged his life to the Night's Watch. On the way, he would have ordered his bannermen to return to the North. In return for Tywin leaving the Riverlands. 

[aryagonnakill#2]

What more simple and direct path?  Do you mean just traveling there and asking for access to the library?  If that's what you mean then maybe.  I was just thinking actually being a member of the NW would make it easier  I'm not sure what the reaction to just walking up and asking to peruse the library's texts would be.  Like I said, it's just a theory but I think it has some merit because of what we were shown later at Old Town...but it's certainly pretty flimsy.  

I doubt he would simply be granted access, but simply going there and volunteering for the watch would have led to him having plenty of time to sneak around.  If he were smart and lucky he might have even ended up as Maester Aemons steward.

 

LM, without my reading through everything, how are you proposing LF paid for the assassination?

[Lost Melnibonean]

What more simple and direct path?  Do you mean just traveling there and asking for access to the library?  If that's what you mean then maybe.  I was just thinking actually being a member of the NW would make it easier  I'm not sure what the reaction to just walking up and asking to peruse the library's texts would be.  Like I said, it's just a theory but I think it has some merit because of what we were shown later at Old Town...but it's certainly pretty flimsy.  

Like the alchemist did at Oldtown, he could have taken a brother's likeness. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

I doubt he would simply be granted access, but simply going there and volunteering for the watch would have led to him having plenty of time to sneak around.  If he were smart and lucky he might have even ended up as Maester Aemons steward.

 

LM, without my reading through everything, how are you proposing LF paid for the assassination?

With an arm and a leg. Upthread I argued that Petyr had become very wealthy through graft. 

[Prince of the North]

I doubt he would simply be granted access, but simply going there and volunteering for the watch would have led to him having plenty of time to sneak around.  If he were smart and lucky he might have even ended up as Maester Aemons steward.

I think volunteering for the NW is not so easy anymore for someone with a false story.  Who would he say he was?  If he says he's just some nobody then he's a bit of an oddity and that would draw unwanted attention.  If he says he's nobility, who seem to be about the only ones who sometimes still voluntarily take the black, then that has to be backed up somehow.  I think showing up as a prisoner from KL would have been a great way to join the NW with very little fanfare.  But, in the end, we just don't know much about this yet.  It's all just fun speculation and maybe we'll never know...

Like the alchemist did at Oldtown, he could have taken a brother's likeness. 

This is true but I still think being pressed into NW service as a criminal, which is quite common, would still be a very good way to accomplish joining the NW with no questions asked.  Besides, how would a Faceless man be able to hang out around the Wall long enough to work his magic and take a black brother's likeness (wouldn't he already need to be a member to really pull that off)?  This was easily done in a population center like Old Town where the people from the Citadel move around the large city.  I think it would be harder (but not impossible) at the Wall.

[aryagonnakill#2]

I think volunteering for the NW is not so easy anymore for someone with a false story.  Who would he say he was?  If he says he's just some nobody then he's a bit of an oddity and that would draw unwanted attention.  If he says he's nobility, who seem to be about the only ones who sometimes still voluntarily take the black, then that has to be backed up somehow.  I think showing up as a prisoner from KL would have been a great way to join the NW with very little fanfare.  But, in the end, we just don't know much about this yet.  It's all just fun speculation and maybe we'll never know...

This is true but I still think being pressed into NW service as a criminal, which is quite common, would still be a very good way to accomplish joining the NW with no questions asked.  Besides, how would a Faceless man be able to hang out around the Wall long enough to work his magic and take a black brother's likeness (wouldn't he already need to be a member to really pull that off)?  This was easily done in a population center like Old Town where the people from the Citadel move around the large city.  I think it would be harder (but not impossible) at the Wall.

People have made this argument before and I just don't feel that it holds any weight.  Any story would due, the NW was desperate for men.  "My wife and child died of a pox, I couldn't bare to live there anymore so I came here."  "My father had too many sons to support, so I figured I'd come here."  "Heard you had food." etc.  Getting caught in a criminal act bad enough to be locked in the black cells and chained in a cart all the way to the wall is getting caught for a crime bad enough that you definitely risked being executed.  At the very least, getting caught in White Harbor would make much more sense as it is a shorter trip and the North sends more men to the watch than other regions.

[Lost Melnibonean]

I think volunteering for the NW is not so easy anymore for someone with a false story.  Who would he say he was?  If he says he's just some nobody then he's a bit of an oddity and that would draw unwanted attention.  If he says he's nobility, who seem to be about the only ones who sometimes still voluntarily take the black, then that has to be backed up somehow.  I think showing up as a prisoner from KL would have been a great way to join the NW with very little fanfare.  But, in the end, we just don't know much about this yet.  It's all just fun speculation and maybe we'll never know...

This is true but I still think being pressed into NW service as a criminal, which is quite common, would still be a very good way to accomplish joining the NW with no questions asked.  Besides, how would a Faceless man be able to hang out around the Wall long enough to work his magic and take a black brother's likeness (wouldn't he already need to be a member to really pull that off)?  This was easily done in a population center like Old Town where the people from the Citadel move around the large city.  I think it would be harder (but not impossible) at the Wall.

He coulda entertained himself in Mole's Town waitin for a lonely crow lookin for burried treasure. 

[Prince of the North]

People have made this argument before and I just don't feel that it holds any weight.  Any story would due, the NW was desperate for men.  "My wife and child died of a pox, I couldn't bare to live there anymore so I came here."  "My father had too many sons to support, so I figured I'd come here."  "Heard you had food." etc.  Getting caught in a criminal act bad enough to be locked in the black cells and chained in a cart all the way to the wall is getting caught for a crime bad enough that you definitely risked being executed.  At the very least, getting caught in White Harbor would make much more sense as it is a shorter trip and the North sends more men to the watch than other regions.

Well, yes, it's just a theory so I'm not going to argue with you about it.  But I do think that not just any story would do.  I think any story would have to stand up to scrutiny or it would invite attention - and Faceless Men don't like attention.  You're certainly right that Jaqen being in the Black cells was risking execution.  But doing something in White Harbor or anywhere else that could get one sent to the Wall is also risking execution (Lords don't always or, it seems, even very often give criminals the option of taking the black anymore do they?) 

Also, we don't know the timing of everything in KL (or, at least, I don't remember it if we do).  Was word out that Ned Stark might be allowed to take the black and was that when Jaqen got himself thrown in the Black Cells because of the historical precedent of the Black Cells being emptied out as an "honor guard" for important prisoners going to the Wall?  I don't know...   

He coulda entertained himself in Mole's Town waitin for a lonely crow lookin for burried treasure. 

Heh, but that could also invite unwanted attention.  I mean, I don't know...I never got the impression that there were ever a lot of strangers hanging around Mole Town.  I always had the impression that it wouldn't even exist if it weren't for the Black Brothers wanting some prostitutes around (but I could certainly be wrong).

Look, I know this is just a flimsy theory but I just think it could explain why Jaqen started out going to the Wall and then seemingly changed his mind and went to Old Town to steal a key to "forbidden" stuff in the Citadel

 

 

  

[LiveFirstDieLater]

As to why Varys did not want Eddard dead, we know that Varys wanted to delay the brewing Lannister-Stark war. Varys brokered the deal that would have sent Eddard to the Wall. He would have remained Lord of Winterfell until he was at the Wall and pledged his life to the Night's Watch. On the way, he would have ordered his bannermen to return to the North. In return for Tywin leaving the Riverlands. 

ok let's look at the text... Here is Arya spying on Varys and Illyrio:

Hand can die, why not a second?" replied the man with the accent and the forked yellow beard. "You have danced the dance before, my friend." He was no one Arya had ever seen before, she was certain of it. Grossly fat, yet he seemed to walk lightly, carrying his weight on the balls of his feet as a water dancer might. His rings glimmered in the torchlight, red-gold and pale silver, crusted with rubies, sapphires, slitted yellow tiger eyes. Every finger wore a ring; some had two.

"Before is not now, and this Hand is not the other," the scarred man said as they stepped out into the hall. Still as stone, Arya told herself, quiet as a shadow. Blinded by the blaze of their own torch, they did not see her pressed flat against the stone, only a few feet away.

"Perhaps so," the forked beard replied, pausing to catch his breath after the long climb. "Nonetheless, we must have time. The princess is with child. The khal will not bestir himself until his son is born. You know how they are, these savages."

Doesn't seem to me that he opposes the idea of killing Ned much at all... Besides practical reasons...

And when Varys visits Ned in the Black Cells:

"My daughters …"

"The younger girl escaped Ser Meryn and fled," Varys told him. "I have not been able to find her. Nor have the Lannisters. A kindness, there. Our new king loves her not. Your older girl is still betrothed to Joffrey. Cersei keeps her close. She came to court a few days ago to plead that you be spared. A pity you couldn't have been there, you would have been touched." He leaned forward intently. "I trust you realize that you are a dead man, Lord Eddard?"

"The queen will not kill me," Ned said. His head swam; the wine was strong, and it had been too long since he'd eaten. "Cat … Cat holds her brother …"

Here we see that Varys tells Ned he's a dead man, that Arya escaped, then tries to convince him to take the black... Not to save his life, but for Sansa's sake... Doesn't make much sense if Varys doesn't want him to die, he admits he could save Ned if he wanted to, and we know he did break Tyrion out. 

Now wether Syrio was suggested to Ned by Varys and so was placed in his household intentionally, or (you don't like syrio=jaquen) a faceless man had some other reason for being in the black cells, I have yet to hear a better reason than because Ned was there.

if you want to take this logic to theory levels then I'd propose that both Varys and Illyrio are (or were) faceless men... shit, maybe Varys is a woman!

but however you cut it, I don't believe for one second that his intentions are all for the "good of the realm"... He uses tongue-less children for  goodness sake?

[Lost Melnibonean]

Well, yes, it's just a theory so I'm not going to argue with you about it.  But I do think that not just any story would do.  I think any story would have to stand up to scrutiny or it would invite attention - and Faceless Men don't like attention.  You're certainly right that Jaqen being in the Black cells was risking execution.  But doing something in White Harbor or anywhere else that could get one sent to the Wall is also risking execution (Lords don't always or, it seems, even very often give criminals the option of taking the black anymore do they?) 

Also, we don't know the timing of everything in KL (or, at least, I don't remember it if we do).  Was word out that Ned Stark might be allowed to take the black and was that when Jaqen got himself thrown in the Black Cells because of the historical precedent of the Black Cells being emptied out as an "honor guard" for important prisoners going to the Wall?  I don't know...   

Heh, but that could also invite unwanted attention.  I mean, I don't know...I never got the impression that there were ever a lot of strangers hanging around Mole Town.  I always had the impression that it wouldn't even exist if it weren't for the Black Brothers wanting some prostitutes around (but I could certainly be wrong).

Look, I know this is just a flimsy theory but I just think it could explain why Jaqen started out going to the Wall and then seemingly changed his mind and went to Old Town to steal a key to "forbidden" stuff in the Citadel

 

 

  

But that's the bigger problem with it... Why did he change his mind? 

[Prince of the North]

But that's the bigger problem with it... Why did he change his mind? 

Right.  My thinking, for now, is that his plan to infiltrate the NW as, basically, an anonymous criminal from KL who was sent to the Wall along with a Lord Paramount went belly up.  So, he tried Plan B which was to look for forbidden dragon lore at the Citadel

[Lost Melnibonean]

ok let's look at the text... Here is Arya spying on Varys and Illyrio:

Hand can die, why not a second?" replied the man with the accent and the forked yellow beard. "You have danced the dance before, my friend." He was no one Arya had ever seen before, she was certain of it. Grossly fat, yet he seemed to walk lightly, carrying his weight on the balls of his feet as a water dancer might. His rings glimmered in the torchlight, red-gold and pale silver, crusted with rubies, sapphires, slitted yellow tiger eyes. Every finger wore a ring; some had two.

"Before is not now, and this Hand is not the other," the scarred man said as they stepped out into the hall. Still as stone, Arya told herself, quiet as a shadow. Blinded by the blaze of their own torch, they did not see her pressed flat against the stone, only a few feet away.

"Perhaps so," the forked beard replied, pausing to catch his breath after the long climb. "Nonetheless, we must have time. The princess is with child. The khal will not bestir himself until his son is born. You know how they are, these savages."

Doesn't seem to me that he opposes the idea of killing Ned much at all... Besides practical reasons...

And when Varys visits Ned in the Black Cells:

"My daughters …"

"The younger girl escaped Ser Meryn and fled," Varys told him. "I have not been able to find her. Nor have the Lannisters. A kindness, there. Our new king loves her not. Your older girl is still betrothed to Joffrey. Cersei keeps her close. She came to court a few days ago to plead that you be spared. A pity you couldn't have been there, you would have been touched." He leaned forward intently. "I trust you realize that you are a dead man, Lord Eddard?"

"The queen will not kill me," Ned said. His head swam; the wine was strong, and it had been too long since he'd eaten. "Cat … Cat holds her brother …"

Here we see that Varys tells Ned he's a dead man, that Arya escaped, then tries to convince him to take the black... Not to save his life, but for Sansa's sake... Doesn't make much sense if Varys doesn't want him to die, he admits he could save Ned if he wanted to, and we know he did break Tyrion out. 

Now wether Syrio was suggested to Ned by Varys and so was placed in his household intentionally, or (you don't like syrio=jaquen) a faceless man had some other reason for being in the black cells, I have yet to hear a better reason than because Ned was there.

if you want to take this logic to theory levels then I'd propose that both Varys and Illyrio are (or were) faceless men... shit, maybe Varys is a woman!

but however you cut it, I don't believe for one second that his intentions are all for the "good of the realm"... He uses tongue-less children for  goodness sake?

Ah, but was Illyrio referring to Jon Arryn or to Jon Connington when he asked if one hand can die? note that he said Varys had danced the dance before. Varys did not kill Jon Arryn, but he did "kill" Jon Connington.

As to calling him a dead man, it could have been a clue from the author, but I see that was a negotiating tactic. Recall the deal was struck offscreen, when Cersei paid her visit. I think that's why Gendry ended up bound for the Wall. Remember what the Ned promised Robert on his deathbed.