[Book Spoilers] The Ripple Effect

[silentwanderer]

He took Regency when the Faith imprisoned Cersei, but he was already Hand after the one before quit.

He refused the job back when Jaime refused it because Lancel got married and Kevan wanted to see his son safe.

Once that Lancel joined the Faith, there was no reason for Kevan to refuse the job any longer.

Thus the reason why Vary's birds killed him (ETA: the Realm couldn't afford an efficient .Lannister this close to Aegon's return).

I'm sorry but that's not what happened.

Then I'm sorry to break this to you: but Kevan Lannister is dead.

Varys himself told him the reason why he had to die in the very last chapter of the very last published book.

[kecsek]

Then I'm sorry to break this to you: but Kevan Lannister is dead.

Varys himself told him the reason why he had to die in the very last chapter of the very last published book.

Strange as it seems, I know he is dead. I read the books as well. This is what Varys tells him:

“Ser Kevan. Forgive me if you can. I bear you no ill will. This was not done from malice. It was for the realm. For the children.”...

“But none in this room, thankfully. This pains me, my lord. You do not deserve to die alone on such a cold dark night. There are many like you, good men in service to bad causes … but you were threatening to undo all the queen’s good work, to reconcile Highgarden and Casterly Rock, bind the Faith to your little king, unite the Seven Kingdoms under Tommen’s rule. So …”

And this is from his conversation with Cersei;

I will serve as Tommen’s regent until he comes of age. Mace Tyrell has been named King’s Hand. Grand Maester Pycelle and Ser Harys Swyft will continue as before, but Paxter Redwyne is now lord admiral and Randyll Tarly has assumed the duties of justiciar.”

[7V3N]

To clear things up, rather than digging through my pdf's for multiple short conversations, I will use the wiki:

Following the death of his brother, Tywin, Queen Regent Cersei offers him the position of Hand of the King. Kevan has serious doubts about Cersei's leadership, and states that he will only accept the position if Cersei names him Regent as well as Hand and she return to Casterly Rock. She refuses, however, and Kevan then refuses the office of Hand. He tells Cersei that, from what he saw of Joffrey, she is as unfit a mother as she is a ruler, causing an enraged Cersei to throw her wine in his face. Later, Cersei, out of spite, appoints two Lannister cousins in positions that Kevan was better suited for; Daven was made Warden of the West and Damion was named Castellan of Casterly Rock.

Kevan rides at the head of the escort that is to return his brother's body to the west to be buried in Casterly Rock. Kevan quickly becomes alienated from his immediate family and comes to believe Tyrion to be Joffrey's murderer. He also comes to believe the rumors of incest between Cersei and Jaime. His eldest son, Lancel, becomes a religious fanatic and abandons Castle Darry, the estate Kevan had won for him. Kevan is also angered that Daven Lannister receives the title of Warden of the West over him, though he bears Daven no ill will as he knows Daven never asked for the position.

He refuses to add his forces to his cousin's at Riverrun, and returns to the west to see his younger son Martyn.^[9] After Cersei's imprisonment, the small council led by Grandmaester Pycelle and Harys Swyft the Master of Coin name Kevan Regent of the King and send a raven to Casterly Rock offering him the position.^[10]

Kevan accepts the role of Regent to King Tommen, and sets about trying to fix the mess that Cersei made. As a concession to House Tyrell, Kevan makes Mace Tyrell Hand of the King and raises two of Tyrell's bannerman to the small council: Paxter Redwyne is made the Master of Ships, and Lord Randyll Tarly the Master of Laws. He visits the imprisoned Cersei and confronts her about her affair with his son Lancel. He tells her that regardless of the outcome of her trial, her rule is now at an end.^[4]

He discusses with the small council on how to deal with the crown's crisis of Jon Connington and his feigned dragon and the crown's financial problems. He later has supper with Cersei and King Tommen. Ser Kevan is told by a servant that Grand Maester Pycelle is seeking him.^[11] He finds a White raven announcing winters arrival. Varys appears suddenly and shoots Kevan in the chest with a crossbow. Varys apologizes to Kevan as he lays dying, stating that he bears Kevan no ill will.

[Lord Joker Of FunLand]

The Winterfell wedding will stay, it's the whole reason they keep Theon alive, really.

Or else they would have to eventually change the Pink Letter, which would piss off people.

[Ser Luke.]

The Winterfell wedding will stay, it's the whole reason they keep Theon alive, really.

Or else they would have to eventually change the Pink Letter, which would piss off people.

I agree with this. Why not just kill Theon if this huge scene would be cut?

[silentwanderer]

The Winterfell wedding will stay, it's the whole reason they keep Theon alive, really.

I've got to agree, there's no reason to keep Theon alive if not to testify the identity of Arya at the wedding.

If Bolton's bastard is going to marry a Winterfell girl, Theon is is only character who can convince the northern Lords that Ramsay is marrying the right one.

[7V3N]

Arya's identity can be confirmed by King's Landing and the crown. In the end, their word is all that matters because the Northmen have no reason to believe it isn't Arya.

In regards to Theon, I never really considered the wedding to be the reason they kept him alive. I always thought it was just because Ramsay is a suck fuck and wanted a new pet. Roose simply made the best of it, as he always seems to do with Ramsay, and used Theon to further his claim.

Like I said, I hope they do not cut the Winterfell wedding, but given all of the events that surround this wedding, I think the showrunners would either water down all of the content or cut the wedding part and keep the rest of the content. Plus, with Yara coming to rescue Theon it would make it easier having her smuggle him out and then being both captured by Stannis.

Then again, much of this depends on how TWOW turns out.

[silentwanderer]

Arya's identity can be confirmed by King's Landing and the crown. In the end, their word is all that matters because the Northmen have no reason to believe it isn't Arya.

The northern Lords were never going to accept the crown's word after what was done to the King in the North and Lord Eddard's family.

That was the point of using a neutral party like Theon Greyjoy on the books, and it would be the point of using him, all over again, on the show.

Whatever interest the Boltons may have in the Warden of the North role, a prisoner like Reek/Theon does not have.

Therefore to have him identify Arya as Ramsay's bride would carry far more credibility among the northern Lords than the crown has at this point in the show.

[7V3N]

The northern Lords were never going to accept the crown's word after what was done to the King in the North and Lord Eddard's family.

That was the point of using a neutral party like Theon Greyjoy on the books, and it would be the point of using him, all over again, on the show.

Whatever interest the Boltons may have in the Warden of the North role, a prisoner like Reek/Theon does not have.

Therefore to have him identify Arya as Ramsay's bride would carry far more credibility among the northern Lords than the crown has at this point in the show.

The same Northern lords that submitted to Bolton after he murdered their king? These Northern lords supposed to take the word of a traitor whom they call a kinslayer, who they believe murdered two children after betraying the family that gave him everything, over the crown whom (supposedly) held the Stark girls as hostages and ensured their safety? Do not for a second think that the Northmen trust Theon. They hate him just as much or more than the crown. This is even more evident by how some of the more Stark-loving lords whom attend the wedding in Winterfell.

Theon's word is a formality. No lord could argue against the claim that the girl is Arya Stark. If they did, it would be considered rebellious. They have no reason to trust Theon, but plenty of reasons not to. The crown was an enemy, Theon was a traitor. Theon was simply there to add to a 'list' of 'proofs' that Jeyne was Arya Stark. Why did they not then invite Jon Snow to give proof? He was her half brother, and would not be mistaken or have cause to lie (unless it was a plan to save her, which of course would be an act of rebellion, so he would either way reveal her identity).

[omegonthesane]

The same Northern lords that submitted to Bolton after he murdered their king? These Northern lords supposed to take the word of a traitor whom they call a kinslayer, who they believe murdered two children after betraying the family that gave him everything, over the crown whom (supposedly) held the Stark girls as hostages and ensured their safety? Do not for a second think that the Northmen trust Theon. They hate him just as much or more than the crown. This is even more evident by how some of the more Stark-loving lords whom attend the wedding in Winterfell.

Theon's word is a formality. No lord could argue against the claim that the girl is Arya Stark. If they did, it would be considered rebellious. They have no reason to trust Theon, but plenty of reasons not to. The crown was an enemy, Theon was a traitor. Theon was simply there to add to a 'list' of 'proofs' that Jeyne was Arya Stark. Why did they not then invite Jon Snow to give proof? He was her half brother, and would not be mistaken or have cause to lie (unless it was a plan to save her, which of course would be an act of rebellion, so he would either way reveal her identity).

Manderly's already rebelling, and quite brazenly, unless you missed the Frey pies.

Roose Bolton cannot be trusted because he currently benefits from a particular version of events, and took part in the violation of guest-right, which IIRC is an even bigger thing than betraying your liege-lord in the North; Theon Greyjoy is going to hang in any event so in theory has no reason whatsoever to lie, hence why you would trust his word at all on the matter.

The idea that he's just making up an excuse to make sure Ramsay can have his Reek for the duration of the trip seems a little too prosaic for my taste.

[7V3N]

Manderly's already rebelling, and quite brazenly, unless you missed the Frey pies.

Roose Bolton cannot be trusted because he currently benefits from a particular version of events, and took part in the violation of guest-right, which IIRC is an even bigger thing than betraying your liege-lord in the North; Theon Greyjoy is going to hang in any event so in theory has no reason whatsoever to lie, hence why you would trust his word at all on the matter.

The idea that he's just making up an excuse to make sure Ramsay can have his Reek for the duration of the trip seems a little too prosaic for my taste.

Manderly is indeed rebelling, but not openly. Publicly, he is still under the rule of Roose Bolton and the crown. He proved such to the crown when he displayed Davos' (fake) head. He has played the Frey-hater, but has shown no hatred for House Bolton.

Most of the rebelling Northmen were never even part of the King in the North's army. They are mountain clansmen who tend to stay out of the game of thrones. He also has part of House Umber under Mors Crowfood, but the other part is with Roose because the Greatjon is captive (though I suspect this could be a lie, but that is irrelevant). House Mormont has declared for Stannis, but the only one left--with combat capability--is Maege Mormont.

No Northman actually knows about Roose killing Robb, but they do know his forces helped kill Northmen outside of the Twins (or can assume so because he was rewarded). They were never Bolton's guests. Under guest right, Bolton and Frey could not harm eachother, but neither Bolton nor the rest of the Northmen were guests of eachother. Only Freys broke the guest right.

Theon will not hang. Ramsay did not break him into Reek just so he could give his shit-worthy word that Jeyne is Arya. Ramsay is a twisted fuck who wanted a pet. The only thing that you have to support your idea that the plan was to have Theon prove fArya's identity is that he did so in one instance, where I have every Theon chapter since ACOK proving that it was more. Ramsay had Theon 'prep' Jeyne for him, had Theon run, eat, and sleep with the dogs and took him along on hunts as a dog. Theon was most certainly not around simply to say "Yeah it's Arya, I'm ready for my noose!" Roose simply saw an opportunity and decided to, as he always has done, make the best of it. I never said it is an excuse. It is exactly what I actually said--Roose makes and has made the best of his situation. As I said, Theon's word was a formality. It was to counter any chance of a Northmen claiming fArya was indeed fake. All the Winterfell men are dead--with the exception Harwin who is with Stoneheart--and Theon is the only one who can claim to know and recognize Arya. He lived at Winterfell for half of his life and Arya's entire life. It serves for House Bolton's future. If the Northmen are convinced that Jeyne is Arya, then House Bolton and Stark join under fArya's son. The Northmen cannot raise their banners against House Bolton, for House Stark, without fighting House Stark. It means that Stark loyalists must be loyal to Bolton as well.

Like I said if you read the post you quoted, it is not an excuse. It is Roose adding to his list of reasons the Northmen can't rebel.

Theon/Reek who has obviously been tortured to the point of submission has plenty of reasons to do whatever Ramsay/Roose tell him. Every time he did something wrong, he got a finger flayed or some other form of torture.

[Lord Joker Of FunLand]

The same Northern lords that submitted to Bolton after he murdered their king? These Northern lords supposed to take the word of a traitor whom they call a kinslayer, who they believe murdered two children after betraying the family that gave him everything, over the crown whom (supposedly) held the Stark girls as hostages and ensured their safety? Do not for a second think that the Northmen trust Theon. They hate him just as much or more than the crown. This is even more evident by how some of the more Stark-loving lords whom attend the wedding in Winterfell.

Theon's word is a formality. No lord could argue against the claim that the girl is Arya Stark. If they did, it would be considered rebellious. They have no reason to trust Theon, but plenty of reasons not to. The crown was an enemy, Theon was a traitor. Theon was simply there to add to a 'list' of 'proofs' that Jeyne was Arya Stark. Why did they not then invite Jon Snow to give proof? He was her half brother, and would not be mistaken or have cause to lie (unless it was a plan to save her, which of course would be an act of rebellion, so he would either way reveal her identity).

Have you not read the books? Why do you think Roose brought Theon with him?

They didn't change it enough at this point, to need to radically change the whole story-line

[7V3N]

Have you not read the books?

First off, don't be insult me. If you want to just be mean to someone, I recommend you do it somewhere else. I have read the books. I have read all but ADWD three times, and have read ADWD once. Your post contributed absolutely nothing besides hostility. So again, if you want to be an ass, do it somewhere else. Here is for debate in a friendly and constructive manner. If you took the time to read my rationale, you would have no doubt that I have read the books. I also have a decent background in military history, focused mostly on medieval Western Europe. I understand the political system GRRM bases his own world off of. Theon's word means little other in context. It is for show. Without Theon there, the Northern Lords' belief on Jeyne being Arya would not change. All of them, including the Starks, believed that the Lannisters had Arya in King's Landing. The Lannisters also made sure to keep this belief alive. They then dispatched fArya from King's Landing and sent her North with a guard expected of the heiress of Winterfell. Nothing suggests this is not Arya to those who do not know Arya. Let's be serious, everyone forgets Arya because she acts and looks more like a common peasant than a Lady of Winterfell. Harwin did not recognize her until she was already bursting in tears begging him to remember her:

“Harwin?” Arya whispered. It was! Under the beard and the tangled hair was the face of Hullen’s son, who used to lead her pony around the yard, ride at quintain with Jon and Robb, and drink too much on feast days. He was thinner, harder somehow, and at Winterfell he had never worn a beard, but it was him - her father’s man. “Harwin!” Squirming, she threw herself forward, trying to wrench free of Lem’s iron grip. “It’s me,” she shouted, “Harwin, it’s me, don’t you know me, don’t you?” The tears came, and she found herself weeping like a baby, just like some stupid little girl. “Harwin, it’s me!”

Harwin’s eyes went from her face to the flayed man on her doublet. “How do you know me?” he said, frowning suspiciously. “The flayed man... who are you, some serving boy to Lord Leech?”

For a moment she did not know how to answer. She’d had so many names. Had she only dreamed Arya Stark? “I’m a girl,” she sniffed. “I was Lord Bolton’s cupbearer but he was going to leave me for the goat, so I ran off with Gendry and Hot Pie. You have to know me! You used to lead my pony, when I was little.”

His eyes went wide. “Gods be good,” he said in a choked voice. “Arya Underfoot? Lem, let go of her.”

Nobody has any reason to suspect that fArya is not Arya. Theon's 'confirmation' is, as I have continually said for those who read my full posts, a formality that simply acts as assurance in case any Lord is brave enough to step forth and question fArya's identity (which none were). And I will not repeat myself as to why it is important for the Boltons to make this marriage happen, in terms of securing the loyalty of the North. You can read it up-thread if you desire.

ETA: It seems nobody here is going to read my posts before arguing against me..

[silentwanderer]

Manderly's already rebelling, and quite brazenly, unless you missed the Frey pies.

Roose Bolton cannot be trusted because he currently benefits from a particular version of events, and took part in the violation of guest-right, which IIRC is an even bigger thing than betraying your liege-lord in the North; Theon Greyjoy is going to hang in any event so in theory has no reason whatsoever to lie, hence why you would trust his word at all on the matter..

Precisely, the northern Lords have no reason to doubt Theon because he has no gain in it.

Without him, the only guarantee of Ramsay betrothal to Arya Stark is the word of the man who betrayed Robb...at a wedding.

No one is going to believe Roose Bolton without Theon.

Why do you think Roose brought Theon with him?

They didn't change it enough at this point, to need to radically change the whole story-line

I've got to agree, there really is no reason to keep Theon's plot unless Roose Bolton's and Ramsay's plots are going to end in the exact same place they did at the books: Arya's wedding.

The only change I could see is whether Ramsay is going to marry the real Arya or not.