Something's rotten in Dorne, the Illyrio-Varys-Doran-Yronwood conspiracy (long read)

[Frey family reunion]

Much of this theory is predicated on earlier threads regarding the Varys - Illyrio - Aegon Blackfyre connections. Basically to sum up: Illyrio and Varys are in possession of "Aegon" a descendant through female lines of Daemon Blackfyre. Illyrio pretends to back Viserys and arranges the Daenerys-Drogo marriage, allegedly to give Viserys an army to retake his throne. Varys whispers to King Robert about Daenerys wedding and how she is pregnant with Drogo's child. Varys recommends sending an assassin out to kill Dany. Whether Dany is killed or there is merely an attempt, it enrages Drogo and finally prompts him to invade Westeros. In the meantime, Aegon, with the backing of Connington (who thinks Aegon is Rhaegar's son) and the Golden Company (who believes him to be a Blackfyre) swoops in after the horde does their dirty work on King's Landing (killing the Baratheons and the Lannisters among others). Then the Golden Company "liberates" King's Landing from Viserys and the Dothraki's and they unveil Aegon as the long lost son of Rhaegar and the rightful claimant to the Iron Throne.

The main problem with this theory, is why would Westeros rally to a group of foreign sellswords and take the word of the sinister Varys that Aegon is Rhaegor's child?

The only way for this plan to work, is if Illyrio and Varys have already secured the assistance of Doran and Dorne. Both for the added troops needed, and for Doran vouching for Aegon's legitimacy.

When Illyrio and Varys are overheard by Arya in the bowels of King's Landing where Varys is complaining about Drogo's foot dragging for invading Westeros:

"If he does not bestir himself soon, it may be too late," the stout man in the steel cap said. "This is no longer a game of two players, if ever it was."

Know Varys and Illyrio are one party to the game, who is the other? I believe that he is referring to Doran.

Doran's initial plan

We know that Doran and Oberyn earlier had arranged a marriage contract with Willem Darry to marry Arianne to Viserys. However we also know that Doran kept this marriage pact a secret (it sure helped that Darry died soon after it was signed, being around Oberyn brings bad luck apparently):

"No doubt that was why Prince Doran chose to keep the pact a secret," suggested Daenerys. "If my brother Viserys had known that he had a Dornish princess waiting for him, he would have crossed Suspear as soon as he was old enough to wed."

"And thereby brought Robert's warhammer down upon himself, and Dorne as well," said Frog. "My father was content to wait for the day that Prince Viserys found his army."

However Viserys was never able to obtain an army, a fact Dany remembers:

Her brother Viserys had once feasted the captains of the Golden Company, in hopes they might take up his cause. They ate his food and heard his pleas and laughed at him. Dany had only been a little girl, but she remembered.

Word probably gets back to Doran (probably through the Archon of Tyrosh) about Viserys "winning" personality and his inability to obtain an army. In addition, word also gets out in Westeros about his interest in an alliance with Viserys:

Tyrion asks Tywin:

"Is it true he (Oberyn) tried to raise Dorne for Viserys?"

"No one speaks of it, but yes. Ravens flew and riders rode, with what secret messages I never knew. Jon Arryn sailed to Suspear to return Prince Lewyn's bones, sat down with Prince Doran, and ended all the talk of war."

So Doran is basically given a warning, we know what you're planning. Add that to the fact that Viserys is a loser and can't get an army and the very cautious Doran, wisely keeps the marriage pact hidden. My guess is hitching his wagon back up to the Targaryen family might have always been a hard pill for him to swallow considering how poorly Aerys kept his sister, Elia, as a hostage during the rebellion, and Rhaegar publically humiliated her during the Harrenhal tournament.

But my guess is, Doran soon receives a better offer. He also receives an offer from the one person that could keep word of an alliance away from the ears of King Robert and the Lannisters. Varys presents "Aegon" to Doran and arranges a new alliance.

Mellario is Septa Lemore

At the time of ADWD, Arianne is 23 years old. She remembers an event that occurred shortly after Quentyn was sent to the Yronwoods to foster:

"I have known the truth since I was four-and-ten, since the day that I went to my father's solar to give him a good night kiss, and found him gone. My mother had sent for him, I learned later.

Now the official story is that Doran's wife, Mellario, left him because he sent Quentyn to the Yronwoods to be fostered. That story really doesn't add up, she leaves her infant son, Trystane and her bodyguard, Aerio, back in Dorne because her other son is being fostered? She also leaves Dorne around 9 years ago, several years after "Aegon" is unveiled to Connington. I believe that Illyrio sends word to Doran about his plot re: "Aegon" through Mellario. When Mellario sends for Doran it is to introduce him to Illyrio and Aegon.

I think another marriage arrangement is made, where Doran agreed to marry Arianne to "Aegon". Mellario under the guise of Septa Lemore agrees to help teach "Aegon" (and keep an eye on matters for her husband). Basically Doran and Mellario want to make sure Aegon is a decent person before they agree to marry their daughter to him. Doran provides military aid, and legitimacy to Varys and Illyrio's claim that Aegon is Rhaegar's child, in return Doran's daughter becomes Queen of Westeros.

If Aegon is a Blackfyre Why would Doran agree to this?

As Doran indicated, mainly blood and fire. Doran still wants a reckoning for what happened to his sister, neice and nephew. "Aegon" can provide the Golden Company where Viserys could not. But there is one additional reason.

While House Martell backed Daeron the good during the Blackfyre rebellion, the next most powerful house in Dorne did not.

The most powerful of the Dornish lords was Anders Yronwood, the Bloodroyal, Lord of Yronwood and Warden of the Stone Way

The Golden Company is different. A brotherhood of exiles and the sons of exiles, united by the dream of Bittersteel. It's home they want, as much as gold. Lord Yronwood knows that as well as I do. His forbears rode with Bittersteel during three of the Blackfyre rebellions.

House Yronwood is a Blackfyre sympathizer from way back. Doran needs Yronwood's strength.

But Doran still needs to justify his support for a Blackfyre (if word got out) both to his own house and to his other bannermen. The perfect justification comes in the form of Dorne's belief that the eldest child is the heir of the house, not necessarily the eldest son. Under this belief, Blackfyre descendants, even Blackfyre descendants from a female line are the rightful heirs to the Iron Throne. This is not because of the fact that they are descended from Daemon Blackfyre, but because Blackfyre is descended from Daena the defiant. The eldest daughter of Aegon III whose brothers all died without children. So under Dorne's own laws, Doran can rightfully claim that Aegon is the rightful heir to the throne and Arianne's marriage to him would make her the rightful queen under Dornish law.

Another clue that Illyrio and Doran share in this conspiracy comes from one of the guests at Illyrio's wedding shower for Daenerys

Illyrio whispered to them. "The man with the green beard is brother to the Archon of Tyrosh".

Doran reveals to Arianne that the Archon of Tyrosh is part of his conspiracy as well

"That green-haired girl was the Archon's daughter. I was to have sent you to Tyrosh in her place. You would have served the Archon as a cupbearer and met with your betrothed in secret, but your mother threatened to harm herself if I stole another of her children, and I...I could not do that to her."

But the best laid plans of spiders and men often go awry. Viserys is given his molten crown, and Drogo dies and the horde deserts them leaving only Dany and her dragons.

Um, Viserys is dead and Dany has dragons, now what?

Now the question is, does the alliance still exists? I believe that it does. But instead of Viserys and the horde, the new plan is to have Dany and her army invade do their dirty work at King's Landing, and then double cross Dany (probably a secret poisoning) and Aegon and Arianne are then married.

But, you may ask why would Illyrio send Aegon to marry Dany, while Doran sends Quentyn to marry her if the alliance still exists? I believe the reason is, Varys and Doran plan on doing away with Dany after she invades with her army, just like they planned on doing away with Viserys after the horde invaded. The marriage proposals were just attempts to get Dany off her but and into Westeros.

Here's where I think that Lord Yronwood is in on this conspiracy. We know Quentyn is fostering with Yronwood. We know the Yronwoods are historic Blackfyre loyalist. There is even apparently some talk Quenty is to marry Yronwood's youngest daughter

"More recently, the youngest of Lord Yronwood's daughters had taken to following him about the castle; She was clever, though, as quick with words as with her hands, and fond of telling Quentyn that he had to wait for her to flower, so she could marry him."

Of course Yronwood would want to marry his daughter to the most powerful family in Dorne. Why would Yronwood aid in Quentyn's trip to Mereen to claim Dany as his bride? He not only sends his best knights, but he also sends his own son to obtain this marriage. He only agrees to this, knowing that this the ultimate plan is to kill Dany after the invasion. Arianne and Aegon become King and Queen. Quentyn becomes Lord of Dorne and his daughter becomes Quentyn's wife. It's the only scenario that makes sense for Lord Yronwood.

Of course, Quentyn gets himself toasted but that's another story. In the meantime, however, another hitch occurs in the new plan when "Aegon" decides to invade Westeros without Dany's army.

Another hitch in the plans

This is not part of Doran's plan. In fact when he hears about the army coming in from Volantis he assumes that it's Dany. Interestingly enough, he does not assume that Quenty is with her

Prince Doran shared his secret smile with her. "From Lys. A great fleet has put in there to take on water. Volantene ships chiefly, carrying an army. No word as to who they are, or where they might be bound. There was talk of elephants." ... "Daenerys is most vulnerable at sea. If I were her, I would keep myself and my intentions hidden as long as I could, so I might take King's Landing unawares." "Do you think that Quenty will be with them?" "He could be. Or not. We will know by where they land if Westeros is indeed their destination. Quenty will bring her up the Greenblood if he can."

Doran doesn't know if Quentyn is with her because Doran knows that it's possible that Dany could have accepted Aegon's "proposal" instead. The important thing is that Dany is invading and the plan is going forward. Except...

It's not Dany, it's Aegon invading with just the Golden Company. Doran knows that this isn't the plan so he holds off the two armies he has waiting (his army and Yronwoods).

I believe that Connington, however, was given assurances that Dorne would be with him when they land in Westeros, probably by Illyrio. Even before he sends his letter off to Doran, Connington is surprised that Dorne is holding their forces back

"but they (Dorne) have an army in the Boneway and another in Prince's Pass, just waiting."

He (Connington) frowned. "For what?" Without Daenerys and her dragons, Dorne was central to their hopes. "Write Sunspear. Doran Martell must know that his sister's son is still alive and has come home to claim his father's throne."

In the meantime, Doran has not let Arianne in on the full nature of their plans, because he can't trust her to keep her mouth shut. So he does not tell her about the plan to marry her to Aegon or even his knowledge on who Aegon really is. This is why he sends her to investigate the claim that he is his nephew. What he is really doing biding his time and putting Arianne in touch with who he believes will be her future husband without tipping his hand to Aegon as to what Dany's role really is.

[otherbeef]

why would they want Dany to invade with dragons at all, even if they somehow removed her, the dragons wouldn't be theirs and would be a nasty problem to deal with

[Frey family reunion]

why would they want Dany to invade with dragons at all, even if they somehow removed her, the dragons wouldn't be theirs and would be a nasty problem to deal with

I'm completely guessing, but I think that the Valyrian horn that Euron got his hands on, may have initially belonged to Illyrio. Either Euron is also working for Illyrio, or Euron stole the horn from Illyrio. I think initially Illyrio planned on using it to wrest Dany's dragons away from her.

[Hrafntýr]

why would they want Dany to invade with dragons at all, even if they somehow removed her, the dragons wouldn't be theirs and would be a nasty problem to deal with

Why wouldn't the dragons be theirs , if they've got a Targ on their side (provided "Aegon" is really a Blackfyre)? Dragons will take another rider, if their principle rider is no longer available.

Interesting theory, FFR!

[SJC]

Well, this is creative, I will give you that. And I suppose some of it is theoretically possible, but there is little to no evidentiary support, and I would not count it as particularly plausible. Just a few notes:

(1) Dorne, untouched by war, would certainly be helpful to the invading fAegon, but not necessary. Any number of houses could be convinced to support fAegon if it is politically advantageous to do so. Indeed, that is why many of the original supporters of Daemon Blackfyre joined his rebellion---they were, by and large, the "second houses" of the realm (e.g., Rheyne, Bracken, Yronwood) and hoped to supplant the existing Lords Paramount. If there is sufficient political reason, they will "believe" that the boy is really Aegon Targaryen---just as the Blackfyre supporters believed Daeron illegitimate and that the sword was the kingdom---even if they are suspect he is not (and most will so suspect). It is about politics, the purported bloodline is simply a justifying pretext. Doran may have a greater incentive to believe than others because of Elia, but other than a slight difference of degree, he is really in the same boat as the rest of the realm.

And the realm is not taking Varys' word for fAegon's legitimacy. Varys has been missing (from the realm's eyes) since Tyrion's escape in ASOS. Varys is not likely to come forward and vouch for fAegon. Jon Connington is supposed to be fAegon's proof of identity. While Connington's "knowledge" is based on Varys, no one else in the realm needs to know that. But, again, most will believe whatever suits their purposes best.

(2) There is no evidence that Doran knew about fAegon before he landed in Westeros. You propose that he did not tell Arianne, that he kept his knowledge from her; but the simplest explanation is that he did not tell her because he did not know. As you say, he expected the invading fleet to be Dany (with Quentyn). Indeed, if he was aware of Aegon, why plan to marry his heir (Arianne) to Viserys, who would have been second in line to the Iron Throne after Aegon?

(3) And of course there is no evidence, inter alia, as to the knowledge or intentions of people like Lord Yronwood (who we have never met), or suggesting Lemore is Mellario (aside from the fact that both women are in Essos).

[Hrafntýr]

Well, this is creative, I will give you that. And I suppose some of it is theoretically possible, but there is little to no evidentiary support, and I would not count it as particularly plausible. Just a few notes:

(1) Dorne, untouched by war, would certainly be helpful to the invading fAegon, but not necessary. Any number of houses could be convinced to support fAegon if it is politically advantageous to do so. Indeed, that is why many of the original supporters of Daemon Blackfyre joined his rebellion---they were, by and large, the "second houses" of the realm (e.g., Rheyne, Bracken, Yronwood) and hoped to supplant the existing Lords Paramount. If there is sufficient political reason, they will "believe" that the boy is really Aegon Targaryen---just as the Blackfyre supporters believed Daeron illegitimate and that the sword was the kingdom---even if they are suspect he is not (and most will so suspect). It is about politics, the purported bloodline is simply a justifying pretext. Doran may have a greater incentive to believe than others because of Elia, but other than a slight difference of degree, he is really in the same boat as the rest of the realm.

And the realm is not taking Varys' word for fAegon's legitimacy. Varys has been missing (from the realm's eyes) since Tyrion's escape in ASOS. Varys is not likely to come forward and vouch for fAegon. Jon Connington is supposed to be fAegon's proof of identity. While Connington's "knowledge" is based on Varys, no one else in the realm needs to know that. But, again, most will believe whatever suits their purposes best.

(2) There is no evidence that Doran knew about fAegon before he landed in Westeros. You propose that he did not tell Arianne, that he kept his knowledge from her; but the simplest explanation is that he did not tell her because he did not know. As you say, he expected the invading fleet to be Dany (with Quentyn). Indeed, if he was aware of Aegon, why plan to marry his heir (Arianne) to Viserys, who would have been second in line to the Iron Throne after Aegon?

(3) And of course there is no evidence, inter alia, as to the knowledge or intentions of people like Lord Yronwood (who we have never met), or suggesting Lemore is Mellario (aside from the fact that both women are in Essos).

I will grant that point two is a strong one. But I think that the OP did a nice job providing evidence regarding your third point. It doesn't make especially good sense that Mellario would leave her husband because her son was being fostered elsewhere, if leaving her husband also means that she's leaving behind her other son.

And regarding your first point, I agree that it's not as if Dorne would be the only supporter that might rally to "Aegon." But I find the "untouched by war" part of your point to be significant. Other major houses have been seriously decimated by the war of the five kings, and the Riverlands and the Crownlands have been ravaged. And the North is now preoccupied with its own politics in the aftermath of the RW, with Stannis caught up in both those politics and whatever's going on at the Wall.

Finally, there are dragons in the mix (much to my chagrin). For all that nobody seems to know exactly how it's supposed to work, a lot of people seem to share the idea that having the blood of the dragon (as in Targ blood) means that one might be able to control dragons. I, for one, wouldn't construct a plot based upon a hypothetical ability of one of my "pieces" to be able to control a dragon, but "Quentyn" seems to have acted on the basis of that hypothesis. Heaven knows that half the theories on these boards seem predicated upon the idea that all you need to have is some Targ blood and voilà! you'll be riding dragons!

[Frey family reunion]

Well, this is creative, I will give you that. And I suppose some of it is theoretically possible, but there is little to no evidentiary support, and I would not count it as particularly plausible. Just a few notes:

(1) Dorne, untouched by war, would certainly be helpful to the invading fAegon, but not necessary. Any number of houses could be convinced to support fAegon if it is politically advantageous to do so. Indeed, that is why many of the original supporters of Daemon Blackfyre joined his rebellion---they were, by and large, the "second houses" of the realm (e.g., Rheyne, Bracken, Yronwood) and hoped to supplant the existing Lords Paramount. If there is sufficient political reason, they will "believe" that the boy is really Aegon Targaryen---just as the Blackfyre supporters believed Daeron illegitimate and that the sword was the kingdom---even if they are suspect he is not (and most will so suspect). It is about politics, the purported bloodline is simply a justifying pretext. Doran may have a greater incentive to believe than others because of Elia, but other than a slight difference of degree, he is really in the same boat as the rest of the realm.

And the realm is not taking Varys' word for fAegon's legitimacy. Varys has been missing (from the realm's eyes) since Tyrion's escape in ASOS. Varys is not likely to come forward and vouch for fAegon. Jon Connington is supposed to be fAegon's proof of identity. While Connington's "knowledge" is based on Varys, no one else in the realm needs to know that. But, again, most will believe whatever suits their purposes best.

The problem with soley using Connington to vouch for Aegon's identity, is that Connington himself has been exiled from Westeros for a good number of years and Varys did not enhance his credibility by spreading the stories of meeting his demise at the bottom of a bottle. Connington's word can easily be dismissed (which indeed it is at the small council) as the word of a desperate exile looking to regain his position of power in Westeros.

Doran's word on the other hand would go a lot further in establishing Aegon's legitimacy not just with the other Houses in Westeros but also with the people of Westeros and King's Landing. Doran is one of the nine most powerful persons in Westeros and would be a blood relative and uncle to "Aegon". In addition, the Golden Company would have a domestic military to support them which helps dispell the notion that they would just be an occupying foreign force.

And in addition, I'm not arguing that Doran believes Aegon to be his nephew, while that is possible I doubt Doran woudl take Varys word on that. I think this gives Doran his best chance at a military ally (which he sorely needs) and puts him in a position to make his daughter the Queen of Westeros. If "Aegon is indeed a Blackfyre, I just pointed out how Doran could justifiy that in his backing of "Aegon".

(2) There is no evidence that Doran knew about fAegon before he landed in Westeros. You propose that he did not tell Arianne, that he kept his knowledge from her; but the simplest explanation is that he did not tell her because he did not know. As you say, he expected the invading fleet to be Dany (with Quentyn). Indeed, if he was aware of Aegon, why plan to marry his heir (Arianne) to Viserys, who would have been second in line to the Iron Throne after Aegon?

One correction, he did not know if Quenty was with her or not. As for your last question, I don't think he was made aware of Aegon until after his initial marriage arrangement was made with Viserys. I would assume that the Viserys marriage contract was drawn up approximately eleven to twelve years ago (maybe earlier) when Dany was just a babe or infant. Mellario left Dorne around 9 years ago, which I believe is the time that Doran is made aware of Varys and Illyrio's plans regarding "Aegon".

As for Arianne, Doran lies to her all the time. He didn't tell her about Viserys until she confronted him with her suspicions. The problem is Arianne can't keep her mouth shut. If he tells her about their ultimate plan, he knows word would leak to the other Houses, and ultimately would get back to Dany.

(3) And of course there is no evidence, inter alia, as to the knowledge or intentions of people like Lord Yronwood (who we have never met), or suggesting Lemore is Mellario (aside from the fact that both women are in Essos).

We are told that House Yronwood is (or was) a Blackfyre loyalist with strong ties to Bittersteel. We know that Yronwood fostered Quenty and was like a second father. We also know that Yronwood's youngest daughter at least was under the impression that she was to marry Quentyn. Yronwood has nothing to gain in helping Quentyn wed Daenerys but would have a lot to lose. Unless of course the actual plan is for Dany to be taken out of the picture at some point.

We know Mellario is the right age to be Septa Lemore and we know both have born children. We also know that Mellario resembles her daughter, short, black hair, and a big buxom. While Tyrion never mentions her height (probably being a dwarf even a short woman is taller than him) he does seem to notice her other, ahem, attributes along with her dark hair. Is it absolutely definitive, no, but it makes more sense then the cover story about Mellario leaving Dorne (and her infant son) because Quentyn was fostered with the Yronwoods.

[Winter's Breath]

I think this is plausible. It would certainly justify the saying that Doran is one of the best players in the realm. It seams like a crafty and long plot, fitting what we've heard of him. Where as the plan he told Arianne seams flimsy, risky, and amateur, not worthy of the only man Tywin Lannister was supposed to fear.

Also all the evidence looks to fit, and some of the points are strong. However there's not been much foreshadowing for this. If it proves true, Gremm will have to do a lot of explaining- everything from how to motive and the complications- basically all you just said. It he doesn't the majority of the readers wont catch on, as its not as simple as the "Liza killed Jon Aryn" reveal.

And as I'm not sure a big long backstory text like this would be put in, it may not be true. But for the time being Ill believe its true for the sake that its an interesting twist. Thanks for the theory

[SJC]

I do not mean to suggest it is all impossible, but mostly the theory speculates as to communications and knowledge we have no evidence exist. the theory is filling in silence. And while you may be correct as to what fills the silence ... there might also simply be silence.

For instance, considering we have never met Mellario (as far as we know), and no character describes her in any great detail, it is difficult to speculate on what may or may not send her back home to Essos; being on the right continent with potentially similar (though common) coloring is a slender reed. How much does Mellario even know about the Seven, to serve as a Septa?

And, again, I really do not think anyone needs to establish definitively fAegon's legitimacy. Because there is no public chain of custody (as there is with Dany, since her whereabouts have been largely publicly known her entire life), the conspirators never really could "prove" fAegon is real anyway. His opponents will always dismiss him as a feigned boy. They just need a plausible enough story that leaders with a reason to follow fAegon will follow him under the pretext he is Rhaegar's son. Although Doran's voice may lend weight, he does not have to have been a part of the conspiracy to add that weight; he (like anyone else) just needs to be convinced to join his voice with fAegon's supporters (like Connington, though, Doran has an additional incentive to believe in fAegon's legitimacy, and thus the conspirators have greater hope of convincing him). For the same reason, Connington does not need to know the "truth" about fAegon---he certainly believes the boy is genuine and is happy to tell the world.

We are told that House Yronwood is (or was) a Blackfyre loyalist with strong ties to Bittersteel. We know that Yronwood fostered Quenty and was like a second father. We also know that Yronwood's youngest daughter at least was under the impression that she was to marry Quentyn. Yronwood has nothing to gain in helping Quentyn wed Daenerys but would have a lot to lose. Unless of course the actual plan is for Dany to be taken out of the picture at some point.

I would not say House Yronwood has nothing to gain. If Quentyn marries Dany and they conquer Westeros together, then Lord Yronwood's fostered "son"---and the best friend of his actual son, the future Lord Yronwood---would be king of the entire realm. That would put house Yronwood in a strong position to marry into the royal family (e.g., a Cletus Yronwood offspring to a Quentyn/Dany offspring). That is bigger than marrying into the Martell clan; particularly since Quentyn is not presently heir to anything (he is second in line to Dorne). Besides, with the Lannisters beaten in that scenario, Trystane Martell would be free to marry Lord Yronwood's daughter (if, indeed, that is what Lord Yronwwod---as differentiated from his daughter---wants as the singularly proud and separate "Bloodroyal" that has long been a bitter rival to the Martells).

[Frey family reunion]

I would not say House Yronwood has nothing to gain. If Quentyn marries Dany and they conquer Westeros together, then Lord Yronwood's fostered "son"---and the best friend of his actual son, the future Lord Yronwood---would be king of the entire realm. That would put house Yronwood in a strong position to marry into the royal family (e.g., a Cletus Yronwood offspring to a Quentyn/Dany offspring). That is bigger than marrying into the Martell clan; particularly since Quentyn is not presently heir to anything (he is second in line to Dorne). Besides, with the Lannisters beaten in that scenario, Trystane Martell would be free to marry Lord Yronwood's daughter (if, indeed, that is what Lord Yronwwod---as differentiated from his daughter---wants as the singularly proud and separate "Bloodroyal" that has long been a bitter rival to the Martells).

Tristane being free to marry Yronwood's daughter is a consideration, but under your scenario, Quentyn is consort to the Queen, and Dany is Queen. Arianne is Princess of Dorne. Tristayne, is neither. If the plan is for Arianne and Aegon to marry, then Yronwood marries his daughter to Quentyn and she becomes married to the Prince of Dorne. Under the present scenario, once word gets out of Quentyn's death, I assume Yronwood will make Doran agree to marry Tristayne to Yronwood's daughter if he expects continued Yronwood support.

Also don't forget Yronwood's status as Blackfyre supporters might not put them in good stead with a new Targaryen regime, even one where Quentyn is the consort. I think the Yronwoods would be much more comfortable with a Blackfyre on the throne.

And finally, I think the elephant in the room is both Doran and Yronwood are probably fairly realistic about Quentyn's actual ability (or lack of ability) to land Daenerys. Quentyn is not handsome, nor charming, nor even the actual heir to Dorne. I think Quentyn was sent merely as a back up plan to get Dany into Westeros. And if she didn't marry him, she would at least believe that she would have the support of Dorne in her invasion, making their ultimate betrayal a little easier to facilitate.

[Whitering]

Who is going to break it to Aegon that he is a Blackfyre? Aegon won't care as long as they support him now (thinking he is a real Targ). Dany also wouldn't care if they supported her now. The Blackfyre thing was long ago compared to what these folks are facing right now.

[A Crow Come Over]

Looks like we got ourselves a Great Dornish Conspiracy now too, excellent work.

[sertravisredbeard]

All of this can be used to explain the comment Doran makes to Arianne about "working towards Tywin Lannister's downfall" for all these years. Whenever I read that, I thought it was kind of weak. Sure, he betrothed Arianne to Viserys, but other than that, it doesn't really seem like Doran or Dorne had taken actual, tangible steps to "Tywin Lannister's downfall." All of this plotting could explain that comment. Him and his confederates probably just didn't account for the whole "holy shit a Targaryen has actual dragons" thing. After Dany emerged with three dragons they had to think on their feet a bit.

I'm interested in this Lord Yronwood guy. Apparently he's the second most powerful lord in Dorne, but his family fought on the wrong side of the Blackfyre Rebellions. His house might still have a grudge against the Martells because of who Nymeria decided to hook up with, but now he's partnering up with Doran? I think his daughter and Trystane could each be their respective house's back-up plan for an alliance. However the Dany-FAegon-Arianne-Quentyn love quadrangle was arranged, if Yronwood and Doran wanted to have assurances that they were working together, Doran could have just told Yronwood he'd betroth Trystane to his other daughter.

All of this also adds some drama to the upcoming (sorry I don't know how to do the spoiler thing. I searched for instructions but couldn't find them. If someone tells me how i'll come back and edit this)

meeting between Arianne and Aegon. If, as theorized, Septa Lemore is Mellario, Arianne will be having a poignant reunion. Maybe it isn't one of the other reunions the readers have been hoping for, but at least it's something resembling a nuclear family finding each other again.

[Hrafntýr]

A couple of fairly minor points, but that might provide circumstantial evidence in support of this theory:

1. That we've got a variant on a Dornish fake Septa in the plot to send Tyene Sand to King's Landing to cozy up to the High Septon. Disguises seem par for the course of Dornish plotting. (Varys, of course, is the other figure who regularly uses disguises to get work done).

2. Doran has someone deep inside the workings at King's Landing, someone who would know of the plot to kill Trystane on the journey to King's Landing. Varys does seem likely here, which might help to support a Varys-Doran connection, and would be an easy plot reveal, allaying some of Winter's Breath's concerns that there hasn't been enough foreshadowing for any of this.

[Lord Damian]

No, Illryio wanted to get rid of Dany and Viserys but needed them for a little while longer because they, through Varys kept Robert's eyes on them while they groomed young Griff/Aegon Vi. Then, the 100 thousand Dothraki whord shows up at Pentos. That means either we bribe the khal or Pentos gets sacked and Ilyrio loses everything, including his life. So, he deceives Viserys into thinking the khal will fight for him to take the throne in exchange for his exotic and virgin sister. Illyrio throws in 3 dragon eggs to sweeten the deal in hopes the Dothraki accept and leave Pentos alone. Remember, Jorah tells Viserys before Viserys goes nuts and gets himself killed, that Drogo views Dany as a "gift", meaning, not a "contract for an army", essentually, Dany was a "tribute". Viserys had been "had". he had nothing left, he "lost it" completely. They, Varys and Illyrio also hope that is the end of Viserys and Dany because they are the true line of Aerys II, another clue that Aegon VI/Young Griff, is not who he says he is or who "they" say he is. Dany through destiny and or luck has changed the course despite of herself and Varys and Illyrio are adapting as it goes, but make no mistake, Aegon Vi is their goal, Dany would just be the icing on the top if you know what I mean.

[Sansa_Stark]

Holy crap. Remember that Doran has friends at court? What if he were talking about Varys and his birds.

[Frey family reunion]

No, Illryio wanted to get rid of Dany and Viserys but needed them for a little while longer because they, through Varys kept Robert's eyes on them while they groomed young Griff/Aegon Vi. Then, the 100 thousand Dothraki whord shows up at Pentos. That means either we bribe the khal or Pentos gets sacked and Ilyrio loses everything, including his life. So, he deceives Viserys into thinking the khal will fight for him to take the throne in exchange for his exotic and virgin sister. Illyrio throws in 3 dragon eggs to sweeten the deal in hopes the Dothraki accept and leave Pentos alone. Remember, Jorah tells Viserys before Viserys goes nuts and gets himself killed, that Drogo views Dany as a "gift", meaning, not a "contract for an army", essentually, Dany was a "tribute". Viserys had been "had". he had nothing left, he "lost it" completely. They, Varys and Illyrio also hope that is the end of Viserys and Dany because they are the true line of Aerys II, another clue that Aegon VI/Young Griff, is not who he says he is or who "they" say he is. Dany through destiny and or luck has changed the course despite of herself and Varys and Illyrio are adapting as it goes, but make no mistake, Aegon Vi is their goal, Dany would just be the icing on the top if you know what I mean.

The dragon eggs are an interesting wrinkle in Illyrio's plans. I think the Dany's wedding shower at Drogo's manse provides a lot of clues as to what may be going on behind the scenes:

Remember, Illyrio was the host for the gathering when Dany was presented to Drogo. The following guests were present:

1. Numerous sellswords from various free cities, along with several Summer Islanders. I think these may have been members of the Golden Company.

2. Ibbenese captains. My guess is initially, the Ibbenese were recruited to use their whaling boats to carry the horde across the Narrow Sea.

3. Khal Moro and his son, Rhogoro. These two characters are interested early on and then we never hear from them again. My guess is that they helped broker the deal to marry Dany to Drogo. If they knew of Illyrio's ultimate plan to betray Drogo and his horde after they sacked King's Landing, then their motivation may have been to help Illyrio to remove the most powerful Khal, and rival, on the Dothraki sea.

4. The brother to the Archon of Tyrosh. This is a big piece of evidence that makes me think Doran may be part of the conspiracy along with Illyrio. We know Doran and the Archon of Tyrosh had a plan to introduce Arianne to her "betrothed" in Tyrosh, for Illyrio to have invited the brother of the Archon makes me think that he was there as Doran's agent at the wedding shower.

5. Finally, a red priest fatter than Illyrio (I have a sneaking suspicion this may be Moqorro). This is the reason that I suspect Illyrio may have given the dragon eggs to Danaerys. Even before the dragons, the red priests had their ability to catch glimpses of the future. I wonder, if in fact this red priest may have told Illyrio that he saw a vision of Dany as the mother of the dragons. This may have been enough for Illyrio to give Dany the dragon eggs to see if the red priest's vision would come true.

This also explains why there appears to be a disconnect early on between Varys and Illyrio. During their argument in the Red Keep, Varys is urging haste in implementing their plans, while Illyrio wishes him to stall even further. Varys then tells the small council of Dany's pregnancy and recommends sending an assassin out to kill her and her unborn child. It appears that Varys has decided not to follow Illyrio's advice and is trying to hasten the invasion by giving Drogo a reason to invade.

Illyrio on the other hand, sends a warning out to Mormont to be on the look out for an assassin. I wonder if the reason Illyrio is dragging his feet and taking steps to protect Daenerys (which should not be part of their plan) was to see if his red priest's vision would come true.

[lentrix]

very interesting points. Dorne is a lot more involved then we think - but will '2' remaining books be enough to explain it all ???????????

[mattah84]

I agree with the overall idea of this theory, and you made some very good points. One of my favorites theories is that Varys is really loyal to the Martells. His loyalty has been very murky throughout the whole series, and I think that Varys being loyal to Doran Martell really helps to clear up alot of loose ends. Varys probably smuggled Aegon out of Kings Landing before the sack because of his Martell Blood. King Aerys would not allow Elia Martell and her children to leave Kings Landing in an attempt to keep Dorne loyal, however, Varys still risked his neck with the Mad King if he was found out and he got Aegon out of the city.

Once the rebellion was over, Varys was way more secretive with King Robert and the Small Council with Aegon's location over that Danaerys and Viserys. Whats I always thought was wierd, was that they all have Targaryen blood, so why the favoritism shown on Varys' part?? And the only explanation that I could think of is that it is because of Aegon's Martell Blood. This could be why Varys counciled Aerys not to open the gates to Tywin Lannister. He was probably protecting himself as he was not expecting a pardon should the city fall, but he also could of been trying to protect Elia and her daughter, because of their Martell Blood.

Varys seems like one of the only real legit choices on who informed Doran Martell about Cersei's plot to kill Trystane. I have always felt that his little birds must of listened to a small council meeting or to one of Cersei's private conversations somehwere and learned of her plot. We still don't know who told Doran about it and I think that Varys makes alot of sense. Also, Varys tells Kevan Lannister that Aegon is alive and raised to rule before he kills him (can't think of Varys' motive for lying to a dying man?), and then Arianne Martell is going to see Aegon in the Winds of Winter Preview chapter. I think that Varys has been in league with the Martells since even before Roberts Rebellion, and he could have even been the one to negotiate with Aerys about Rhaegar's marriage to Elia.

[daario's man]

Good work OP, there has to more to Doran's scheming than what we have been presented with and this could be just it. Nice one.