Will Stannis win against Bolton?

[Runaway Penguin]

As I said I think Manderley is playing it safe. So even if he is with his own troops commanding them, I doubt that he will switch sides. First, because Stannis men are still in a disadvantage even with Manderley's help I think (but I don't know how many Frey and Ramsay men there are). Second, even if Manderley should decide to side with Stannis, Bolton would stil bel behind Winterfell's strong walls with 5000 men who are warm and well fed. I think Manderley would see that Stannis is at a disadvantage no matter what right now, so he wouldn't risk joining him.

And if Manderley is still at Winterfell, I doubt whoever is commanding his men will switch sides, because Manderley would become a hostage - except if he can keep his betrayal hidden, but...

Manderly is on suicide mission. His own safety is disregarded. That's why he is so provocative all the time - and that¨s also why Roose shows a bit of fear at his sudden carefree and dangerous behavior. He knows the North is a keg of powder, but he thinks Manderly to be fat, stupid, timid... And he does not know where the "new Manderly" comes from. he doesn't know about Manderly reserves, nor about plan to get Rickon back. Did Ramsay even share that the boys are not dead?

So yeah. Manderly's men are suspect. That is why Roose sent them out with Freys - to keep them from Winterfell. he THINKS Umber men are his as long as Freys hold Greatjon, and he may believe lady Dustin is on his side... Others with suspicious loyalties as well.

My guess is that Lord Manderly will do his best to be murdered by Freys or Boltons and thus signal the revolt. And his men, going out with the Frey host, for sure have orders to do whatever necessary. Maybe even join up with reserve force hidden by blizzard. 1000 heavy horse means, in medieval era, total force of at least 5-6 thousand soldiers, as each mounted lance would be supported by several footsoldiers and (mounted) archers.

[Grip]

I have no doubt that Stannis will win this battle, but what happens in the aftermath is far less certain imo. Besides Stannis seems to do best in these kind of situations, you know with his back against the wall and when the enemy seemingly has most of the (obvious) advantages.

[Toxspecific]

I have no doubt that Stannis will win this battle, but what happens in the aftermath is far less certain imo. Besides Stannis seems to do best in these kind of situations, you know with his back against the wall and when the enemy seemingly has most of the (obvious) advantages.

Thats almost the situation with him all the time these days it seems :P

[Grip]

Thats almost the situation with him all the time these days it seems :P

:D Yeah, the Blackwater was an exception. Though that loss can hardly be held against him.

[lojzelote]

I want Roose to take the French leave and ran away to the NW. (If Alys could do it...)

I don't want him to die; I have only come to appreciate him in ADwD. :frown5:

[Grip]

I want Roose to take the French leave and ran away to the NW. (If Alys could do it...)

I don't want him to die; I have only come to appreciate him in ADwD. :frown5:

Yeah I agree. He is one of my favorite characters, especially since reading ADWD. If he could somehow loose the battle but still survive I would be pleased, the story needs him imo. Ramsay however should be killed off as soon as possible.

[Runaway Penguin]

Roose closes gates on Ramsay -> Northmen rebel -> Roose takes the Black and names heir to Dreadfort to be his Walda?

[Toxspecific]

Roose closes gates on Ramsay -> Northmen rebel -> Roose takes the Black and names heir to Dreadfort to be his Walda?

Or, Dreadfort is seized by conquest and taken out of the jurisdiction of House Bolton.

[Erkan12]

Of course... North Remembers...

[Lord Damian]

I think Stannis will get reinforced by either Manderly's forces when he leaves Winterfell and turns his cloak and or if Glover's host of Manderly men (whom I think are camped, undetected near Winterfell potentially with Rickon, Davos, Shaggy and Osha) join at a key moment. Stannis needs this victory then die or go away as he would try and control Rickon and I do not want that one bit.

[Hound Dog]

I really don't see how Stannis can win... just the descriptions alone of his army throughout aDwD were exhausting... reading about them trudging through the snow, freezing their asses off, dying during the long march.... To me it seems impossible.

I think perhaps Jon Snow may become a wight and then will travel well north of the Wall; after all, GRRM has said he's going to take us farther north than we've ever been-- unless he means through Bran's POV, with Bran warging into a bird and flying across the north. But if Jon becomes a wight, then perhaps he will somehow come to lead them (don't ask me how), march them south beyond the Wall and then towards Winterfell where he and the wights will liberate the castle from the Boltons (which seems uncharacteristic of them, but hey). And then Rickon (or Bran?) can come back and become Lord of Winterfell. Maybe Stannis' dead army will also become wights somehow if Jon marches south, and then they'll also join the fight. A wight army marching across the cold northern plains under Jon Snow. And Stannis. Yes, I realise how ridiculous this sounds.

After Cat, Robert Strong, Brienne and maybe even Sandor (if he's actually the gravedigger)... it'd be nice if a character implied to be dead and/or dying actually stays dead. When I finished aDwD, I wasn't nearly as shocked and appalled as I should've been that Jon Snow was being stabbed to death, because I just thought, "Ah, somehow he'll be back." I hope I'm wrong, even though he is one of my favourite characters.

All this being said, I really hope Stannis wins. I love his character!

[lentrix]

Manderlys and Umbers and Karstarks will turn on the Boltons and Freys and by the time Stannis arrives to the city, there won't be much of a fight. With both Boltons dead (or mayhaps Ramsay on the run), House Bolton is gone and in a fortnight, the entire north returns to the Starks, especially when Davos brings Rickon back to the real world. The Frey remnants try to run back to the Twins but Howland Reed, Glover and Mormont are waiting for them in the Neck and they kill every single one of them.

The Battle of Winterfell will decide the North's future.

I Hope so ............ :agree:

[Perfidious Algernon]

Something I've been wondering since reading ADWD...how is Stannis going to know the Manderlys are on his side? He thinks they killed Davos right now, and they're unlikely to get a chance to speak before the fighting starts. It would be just like Martin to have one of the two of them win out, but kill off the other team of "good guys" in the process.

[Winterz]

Something I've been wondering since reading ADWD...how is Stannis going to know the Manderlys are on his side? He thinks they killed Davos right now, and they're unlikely to get a chance to speak before the fighting starts. It would be just like Martin to have one of the two of them win out, but kill off the other team of "good guys" in the process.

If Davos returns to Stannis before he launches his attack, I think that will be proof enough.

[Runaway Penguin]

I really don't see how Stannis can win... just the descriptions alone of his army throughout aDwD were exhausting... reading about them trudging through the snow, freezing their asses off, dying during the long march.... To me it seems impossible.

Frey force already demonstrated ability to fall into holes under snow... Here, you have moreover added water element :) Freys will try to attack over the nice snowy plain. IE the lake. With ice weakened by fishing holes. On heavy horse. In armor.

And Manderly forces will be right behind them to push them in.

Something I've been wondering since reading ADWD...how is Stannis going to know the Manderlys are on his side? He thinks they killed Davos right now, and they're unlikely to get a chance to speak before the fighting starts. It would be just like Martin to have one of the two of them win out, but kill off the other team of "good guys" in the process.

Well, attacking Frey forces will be a good indicator for Stannis to at least wait a bit. Plenty of time to deliver a letter from Lord Too Fat To Ride and countersigned by Davos, for example. Manderly for sure thought about it.

Then again, chance is Davos and Rickon are already somewhere int he snowstorm - castle Cerwyn would be a good marshalling point for Manderly forces.

[Lord Damian]

I see a reverse of Stannis's fortune on the Blackwater when he might be about to lose, Rickon, Glover and Co. Show up and hopefully, Shaggy Dog will lead their Van and take out some Freys and Boltons, essentually helping the "True" Northmen win the day.

[Cas Stark]

I'm surprised people think we're not going to see Davos on Skaagos, considering how much pointless traveloguing we've already been forced to submit to, it would be a disappointment not to see Davos meet Osha and Rickon on the alleged island full of cannibals.

Stannis has lost too many times in the series, he has to start recouping those losses and become a force again, so he's got to defeat the Boltons, whose entire hold on the North is paper thin to begin with.

[Perfidious Algernon]

If Davos returns to Stannis before he launches his attack, I think that will be proof enough.

Can he get there in time? My understanding was that Davos left for Skagos a few weeks before the BoW is set to go down, and is likely still on the island. Could totally have that wrong though.

Manderly returning to Winterfell with Rickon at his side would be awesome enough to make me forgive any fudging of the logistics though. The castle would tear itself apart.

[Lord Damian]

I'm surprised people think we're not going to see Davos on Skaagos, considering how much pointless traveloguing we've already been forced to submit to, it would be a disappointment not to see Davos meet Osha and Rickon on the alleged island full of cannibals.

Stannis has lost too many times in the series, he has to start recouping those losses and become a force again, so he's got to defeat the Boltons, whose entire hold on the North is paper thin to begin with.

Skagos is a big Island and must have a good population. I am also thinking that the men Robb lost will be replentished potentially by Freemen (worship the old Gods) who do not seem to hate the Starks like we might think they do and the Skagosi who may be more savage then any force Gregor Clegane could have mustered. We have always talked about the military strength and numbers of the kingdoms. The North may be now stronger than ever, they just need leadership.

[Grip]

Frey force already demonstrated ability to fall into holes under snow... Here, you have moreover added water element :) Freys will try to attack over the nice snowy plain. IE the lake. With ice weakened by fishing holes. On heavy horse. In armor.

Yeah, and if Ser Hosteen commands the Frey forces they will most likely go charging in blindly. Ser Hosteen is not one for caution.