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Do You Think the Other Reach Lords are Preparing to Betray the Tyrells?


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Would Hightower turn on his daughter, son-in-law, and grandchildren? Would Redwyne turn on his brother in law, and nephews and nieces? Unlikely, unless they were absolutely desperate IMO. Tarly and Rowan have immense power thanks to Mace Tyrell.

If the GC do have friends in the Reach, they're probably Florents and their retainers, and other landowners who got dispossessed after Blackwater.

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No, the Florents were the only ones really discontent with Tyrrel rule, mostly because of their claim on Highgarden.

It's easy to say this, but during the Blackfyre rebellions, many Reach houses did not side with their Tyrell overlords. At least 5 didn't I believe.

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Yes, it's strongly implied that the Reach was Daemon Blackfyre's power base, which shows how weak the Tyrell hold on their bannermen has been historically.

Yeah, wasn't it said that one of the reasons why so many wanted Daemon king was because he was trying to alienate Dornishmen from the Iron Throne?

The Reach would hate them the most.

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What is he supposed to have given him? Tarly has a seat on the Small Council because Mace insisted

Indeed.

Also, why would he want another castle anyway? He doesn't even have enough known family members to create a branch out of it. As for Mace taking the glory, well Mace is his liege Lord so I find it rather normal, and besides, everyone relevant knows that it was Randyll's victory.

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  • 2 weeks later...

I don't know. Tyrells have marriage with Redwyne, Hightower and Fossoway. Redwyne and Hightower are Tyrell's most powerful bannermen. Willas can still marry one of Tarly's daughters. So they should be secure because they have ties to many of their bannermen. Plus most lords in Golden Company are from Reach so Reach's lords wouldn't be happy that they should return lands which they got after Blackfyre rebellion.

Yeah, I was gonna say. Paxter Redwyne and Mace Tyrell are cousins and brother-in-laws, and its frequently stated that Paxter and Mace are like BFFs. And does anyone really think that Lord Hightower is going to join some random kid claiming to be a Targaryen and go to war with his OWN GRANDCHILDREN. Queen Margaery is his granddaughter, and Mace Tyrell is married to his daughter. I don't think he's going to just up and abandon them easily.

And I think its ridiculous that people always assume Randyll Tarly is going to turn on the Tyrells, even though he's been one of their biggest supporters throughout the War of the Five Kings. 'ooooh, but mace tyrell took all his credit in robert's rebellion!'. Yes, he always does. But sersiouly, does ANYONE in the series actually believe him? No. Everyone knows Randyll Tarly beat Robert, not Mace Tyrell. And I'm sure Lord Tarly knows this. The Reach is the heart of chivalry in Westeros, so I'm betting they have pretty generally honorable lords.

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Randall Tarly is going to do whatever will cause the most trouble for Sam Tarly.

I would place a wager on that one. Sam is a POV character who's terrified of his father. Randall Tarly is a one-note jerk. He will make whatever choice most opposes Sam's preference, and right now Sam seems to be headed on a path toward...(1) Loyalty to the Night's Watch and potentially, (2) Advising Dany? So if Dany & Aegon do come into conflict, that might set up nicely.

But really, if you want to predict Tarly just backwards engineer from whatever you think Sam has in store.

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Yes, it's strongly implied that the Reach was Daemon Blackfyre's power base, which shows how weak the Tyrell hold on their bannermen has been historically.

None of those houses were major houses though. The Blackfyres gained support from minor houses and upstarts but all the great lords sided with the Targs

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Randall Tarly is going to do whatever will cause the most trouble for Sam Tarly.

I would place a wager on that one. Sam is a POV character who's terrified of his father. Randall Tarly is a one-note jerk. He will make whatever choice most opposes Sam's preference, and right now Sam seems to be headed on a path toward...(1) Loyalty to the Night's Watch and potentially, (2) Advising Dany? So if Dany & Aegon do come into conflict, that might set up nicely.

But really, if you want to predict Tarly just backwards engineer from whatever you think Sam has in store.

Tarly may be one note, but hating Sam isn't that note, it's making sure the head of his house is a strong fighter and competent leader. Sam was neither, in his eyes. I don't think he gives two shits about him now that he's forsaken all claims. Why should he? It wasn't a personal grudge, it was him placing more value on how his house was seen by others than on loving his son. Not too dissimilar to the attitude of many high lords of Westeros.

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Cersei makes Tarly her hand. Tarly is loyal until she goes nuts and threatens to destroy the city. He has her killed as Aegon arrives at the gates. He assumes control of King's Landing. Aegon comes into King's Landing and Tarly kills him as well while pretending to surrender. Samwell is the eventual heir to the Iron Throne.

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Tarly may be one note, but hating Sam isn't that note, it's making sure the head of his house is a strong fighter and competent leader. Sam was neither, in his eyes. I don't think he gives two shits about him now that he's forsaken all claims. Why should he? It wasn't a personal grudge, it was him placing more value on how his house was seen by others than on loving his son. Not too dissimilar to the attitude of many high lords of Westeros.

Sorry, I wasn't clear. I didn't mean to suggest that Randall Tarly's one-note is hating Sam. His one note is exactly as you describe: only strength matters, preserve the status quo, manly man rah rah. However. Whatever Randall's personal goals, he's a secondary character. And from a narrative perspective, his purpose is to create conflict for the primary character. For Samwell.

Right now, Samwell is on a collision course with Randall. He's studying at the Citadel, which his father forbade. He's got a mission from Master Aemon to go look up Dany. And he's grown a lot, and gained a lot of strength and self-esteem, since he last saw dear ol' dad. They're going to meet again, it's not going to be pretty, and GRRM will maneuver events to cause the maximum possible conflict for SAM.

There is a lovely poetic justice in the fact that, from at least one perspective, Randall exists only to serve Sam. He'd hate that, if he knew.

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I say Mathis Rowan will join (f)Aegon with the promise of overlordship of the Reach. The Rowans are probably the 3rd most powerful Tyrell bannerhouse (after HIghtower and Redwyne) as they have a noble house whose seat is a castle marked on the map (Old Oak) sworn to them. According to the QoT, the Rowans claim decent from the Greenhands too, and as Mathis controls the siege at Storm's End, I say he will stage a mock battle with the Golden Company while the latter is pretending to be hired by Stannis, and after he has been "driven off" Storm's End will let the GC into the castle and JonCon seize will control of the castle and rule the Stormlands.

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I say Mathis Rowan will join (f)Aegon with the promise of overlordship of the Reach. The Rowans are probably the 3rd most powerful Tyrell bannerhouse (after HIghtower and Redwyne) as they have a noble house whose seat is a castle marked on the map (Old Oak) sworn to them. According to the QoT, the Rowans claim decent from the Greenhands too, and as Mathis controls the siege at Storm's End, I say he will stage a mock battle with the Golden Company while the latter is pretending to be hired by Stannis, and after he has been "driven off" Storm's End will let the GC into the castle and JonCon seize will control of the castle and rule the Stormlands.

House Rowan might not have the pedigree though. Before the Blackfyre rebellion they were overshadowed by House Osgrey, who only became their bannermen because they rebelled against the Targs.

If there does become a new Reach overlord it will be whoever gets Highgarden from the Tyrells.

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What do you mean, "have the pedigree"?

Before the Blackfyre Rebellion it was the Osgreys who were top dogs of the Northmarch so it's a fairly recent occurrence of them now being the new 'Marshalls of the Northmarch'.

Also I think members of the Gold Company would not want to reward a family who prospered from a Blackfyre loyalist(Osgrey) losing power. Their contacts in the Reach are likely to be the same families who were on their side in that rebellion rather than the one's who stayed neutral or loyal to the Iron Throne.

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I disagree. The Blackfyres have not been a real threat for near a century, and I'll eat my hat if more than 1 of the officers knows Aegon is fake. When JonCon talks about "friends in the Reach" he means friends of the Targs, and what better friend than that which was raised to power by siding with them? (I know the Tyrells did to, but they've thrown their lot in with the Lannisters and that was far longer ago.)

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