How long before House Lannister comes crashing down?

[The Pain Yak]

Practically everyone seems to be conspiring to destroy the rule of King Tommen. Stannis, Dany, Aegon, Euron, Littlefinger, Varys, Doran, Tyrion, Lady Stoneheart and the Others are all conspiring either alone or with others to see Tommen's rule challenged or ended. The Lannisters have an alliance with House Tyrell which is fracturing by the instant and an alliance with treacherous houses like the Boltons and the Freys, the former of whom might very well decide he should be the next King in the North should the Lannisters appear weak enough. Tywin is dead, Kevan is dead, Jaime is maimed and possibly about to be killed by LS, Tyrion is aligned against his own house, and all that's left to rule is Cersei, an utter fool who does more damage to the Lannister cause than almost any of their opponents. As well, the Lannister armies have suffered a number of serious defeats during the previous war, likely losing many men and a great deal of money, and very likely have ended the War of the Five Kings with a mere fraction of their previous military power.

Everything seems set for a spectacular fall. So the question: how long will it be before this fall takes place? Will House Lannister be deposed in WoW? The beginning of WoW? The middle? The end? Will it have to wait until DoS?

Moreover, who will perform the coup de grace? Will Tommen and his court survive and be driven into exile by the new king, whoever it may be, or killed outright?

[TheGreatstag]

It's time. If it lasts till ADoS then I fear the survival will be too contrived. If by wiping out House Lannister you mean the end of Jaime, Cersei and their children, then I think maybe the middle of WoW.

[Night'sQueen]

<looks at wristwatch> Any minute now. Beginning of WoW hopefully. Varys has surely dealt the death blow with the murder of Kevan. Cersei is totally bananas and Jaime doesn't seem to desire power. As you said, their alliances are so weak and without a firm (sane) leader to keep them in line it all falls apart.

They are done. I hope Tommen and Myrcella do not die.

[The Pain Yak]

I'm placing my bet on mid Winds of Winter. The first half of the book will be catastrophe after catastrophe for the Lannisters and their allies, culminating in (f)Aegon taking the throne.

Unless (f)Aegon takes an arrow through the face during the taking of Storm's End, anyway.

[Littlefingers In The Air]

I'm placing my bet on mid Winds of Winter. The first half of the book will be catastrophe after catastrophe for the Lannisters and their allies, culminating in (f)Aegon taking the throne.

Unless (f)Aegon takes an arrow through the face during the taking of Storm's End, anyway.

speak it into existence.

[Jabronius Maximus]

With their luck, Aegon will probably get hit by a stray arrow before pressing on King's Landing, Dany will turn North before setting course the throne, and Jon will refuse any claim he has to the throne. Tyrells and Tarly will weaken due to in-fighting, and Stannis will be involved up North. The Lannisters will survive because, well, they are the Lannisters and regular rules need not apply.

But if you look at their predicament right now, they are close to being totally extinguished from existence. Tywin is dead, Cersei and Jaime are far from safe, and they've lost a ton of cousins recently. So yeah, from a rational standpoint I'd say they'll be expelled by mid-WoW by Aegon, so he can be in place when the second Dance of Dragons begins.

It's just that something tells me Martin has a soft spot for the Lannisters, and they will survive all of the events of the series and be the rulers in the end. And of course we know GRRM hates the Starks, so it's only a matter of time before we see all of them wiped out.

[Red Raven]

Along with the other dangers the OP posted, the Iron Bank has called in the King's debts and have started financing a rival. Also, winter is coming and pretty much already here. Between shredded finances, the Martells sending "Septa" Tyrene to possibly cause disruption in both Margaery and Cersei's trials, and an environmental calamity they're ill prepared for, the Lannisters are just about done.

I predict it won't be too long before the Lannisters are deposed as the ruling family and busted down to being a junior house in the West and someone else will be named Warden of the West.

Also, I think the Tyrells are going to go down with the Lions' ship since they've decided to put their eggs in the Tommen Waters basket.

[Night'sQueen]

It's just that something tells me Martin has a soft spot for the Lannisters, and they will survive all of the events of the series and be the rulers in the end. And of course we know GRRM hates the Starks, so it's only a matter of time before we see all of them wiped out.

:rofl:

[Rheagar Prime]

they have luck on their side until now so hopefully that fails in winds of winter. Come on aegon bring down the annoying lions

[Red Raven]

The Lannisters and Tyrells are doing a fine job of tearing each other apart with some poking and prodding from the Martells. By the time (f)Aegon gets there, there won't be much left for him to do.

[Maegor the Cuddly]

Once the Tyrells decide to go ahead and just pick up camp and walk home. Seriously, those guys are the kingmakers right now, and the only reason the Lannisters still have King's Landing. The minute they either decide, "Let's be king" or "Stannis can have the Iron Throne... We're done with this." or maybe even, "Hey, that Aegon kid looks cool. Let's help him out."

[The Pain Yak]

It's just that something tells me Martin has a soft spot for the Lannisters, and they will survive all of the events of the series and be the rulers in the end. And of course we know GRRM hates the Starks, so it's only a matter of time before we see all of them wiped out.

I think, rather, he is fond of making things reach their absolute worst before they get any better. And House Lannister, whatever their failings, is very very good at making things worse.

Well, they've served that purpose. I would place a lot of money on it: winter is here and winter will be the end of them, at least as the de facto ruling family of Westeros. Rather fitting, actually.

[Fightbringer]

I think they will probably be unseated from the IT mid to late tWoW, probably by Aegon but possibly by Danaerys, i think tommen and myrcella might die when the city is taken as i cant see dany killing them (unless one of her captains murders them in an attempt to please her), and they're going to die if maggy the frog's prophecy is to be believed, with cersei lasting a little longer before either being killed by tyrion when dany rocks up, or by jaime, the lannisters and tyrells will have crumbled by the end of tWoW, but by the end of aDoS they would have risen again under Tyrion Lannister, the new Lord of Casterly Rock, and Hand of the Queen

[TalalOfDorne]

I think they will be gone halfway through ADOS

[joluoto]

House Lannister won't go extinct. Too many Cadet Branches. However the current main family: Cersei, Jaime, Tommen, Myrcella, Tyrion might very well all die (probably will, although I think Tyrion won't die until the last book).

[mrunderhill]

House Lannister will have many of it's members wiped out, but when the Great Star of the West returns in spring they will make a come back.

[Lehnaru]

*Opens The Winds of Winter* 3... 2... 1... crash! The main branch is toast. Cersei, Jaime, Tommen, Myrcella, and yes, Tyrion, aren't going to survive the series. The cousins are going to have to pick up the pieces if any of them manage to survive.

[SkaggCannibal]

Practically everyone seems to be conspiring to destroy the rule of King Tommen. Stannis, Dany, Aegon, Euron, Littlefinger, Varys, Doran, Tyrion, Lady Stoneheart and the Others are all conspiring either alone or with others to see Tommen's rule challenged or ended. The Lannisters have an alliance with House Tyrell which is fracturing by the instant and an alliance with treacherous houses like the Boltons and the Freys, the former of whom might very well decide he should be the next King in the North should the Lannisters appear weak enough. Tywin is dead, Kevan is dead, Jaime is maimed and possibly about to be killed by LS, Tyrion is aligned against his own house, and all that's left to rule is Cersei, an utter fool who does more damage to the Lannister cause than almost any of their opponents. As well, the Lannister armies have suffered a number of serious defeats during the previous war, likely losing many men and a great deal of money, and very likely have ended the War of the Five Kings with a mere fraction of their previous military power.

Lol I like your list, poor Tommen really doesn't stand a change.

[Tony Soprano]

I wouldn't expect their downfall anytime soon. I doubt it'll happen in TWoW. The deaths of Tywin and Kevan was a terrible loss for them, but there are still others who can pick up the pieces. Daven Lannister has been named Warden of the West, and I think him taking control of Casterly Rock is pretty much inevitable. It's just a matter of time. Daven's not Cersei. He's going to put up a fight against anyone and everyone who would harm his House.

[Ser Arthyr Dracenstein]

I think they may lose the Iron Throne during TWoW, but I believe Cersei, Jaime and Tyrion will live to see the last book (and I believe ASoIaF will be eight books all told, not seven as GRRM is planning). Cersei will die then, but I'm not sure if Jaime or Tyrion will die. If Tyrion doesn't, he'll be head of the Lannister family, but certainly not king.