[BOOK SPOILERS] Theory: Ramsay hunts a Stark in Season 4?

[Wilbert]

Eh, clearly we won't convince each other. I don't love the idea of Yara marrying Ramsay, but I really don't like the Jeyne plotline. The Jeyne plotline has us believe that the Northeners love Arya so much they'll tolerate Bolton rule for her, but that they don't love Arya so much that they'll save her from torture and they don't love Arya so much they'll have a freaking clue what she looks or acts like.

The truth of the situation is that there are no Starks available to Roose to cement his rule of the North. The other truth is that the Lannisters are hoping to produce a new heir to the North in a few years, giving them little motivation to help Roose cement his legitimacy as ruler of the north. Further, the idea of them magically procuring a girl who can pass as northern highborn for the rest of her life is absurd.

Fake Arya is central to the northern plotline, but it doesn't really stand, particularly since there is no Jeyne.

This plotline has very little to do with the love for Arya itself but rather for the Stark family as the symbol of the North. And the North is divided between those who support Boltons (because they were unhappy with Starks or are blackmailed) and those that are against them. Both sides need the heir of Winterfell on their side. After the PW Sansa is gone and Tyrion stands accused of regicide, meanig that their chances to produce a new heir to the North in a few years are close to zero.

The sad true is that Jeyne has to pretend to be Arya only until she gives birth to a boy. Because as far as we know Boltons if the things would get suspicious, they would go for the simplest solution. The other thing is that the history is full of impostors (e.g. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_Dmitriy_%28disambiguation%29) and some of them even managed to get "their" heritage. In a world without even photography (let alone internet) it's not so difficult.

[YTDN]

Or Victarion and Euron might be merged, which would mean that the Ironborn attacking the Reach plotline would have to be mostly abandoned, but so far it wouldn't change much else outside of the Greyjoy plotline.

I dunno, I feel that the Ironborn-in-the-reach is going to have a bigger impact in later books, what with Sam in Oldtown. who knows (well, D&D know, so they'll know what stays in and doesn't.)

[protar]

I'll say again that the reason Yara's being removed now is because they've got more important things for her to do (like replace another character's role in the story).

My belief is that they'll have Victarion introduced while Balon is still alive with a brief conflict between the two of them regarding war strategy or something of the like. They could then mention Euron and his unknown whereabouts. Then, shortly afterwards, Balon would die mysteriously and Euron could show up out of the blue. Victarion could take on more of Asha's role as the suspicious Greyjoy and it would lead up to the 2 of them (maybe along with a couple superfluous unnamed candidates) vying for the leadership via the Kingsmoot with Euron ultimately triumphing. This way, you make Vicatarion more of a POV character from the get go by passing the Iron Islands POV from Balon to him in a couple early scenes. Euron could be left as more of the untrustworthy interloper seen mostly through Victarion's eyes.

Well, as I don't think Yara replacing Jeyne makes any sense or is going to happen I don't really accept that explanation, sorry.

I find it odd that you think Jeyne Poole is cut despite very shaky "evidence" and despite the problems it would cause, and yet you don't think the KM is cut, despite the fact that we can jump straight to Euron being king without any problems whatsoever that I can see and despite the fact that they're taking one of the main players on a clearly different path.

[King Tommen]

Well, as I don't think Yara replacing Jeyne makes any sense or is going to happen I don't really accept that explanation, sorry.

I find it odd that you think Jeyne Poole is cut despite very shaky "evidence" and despite the problems it would cause, and yet you don't think the KM is cut, despite the fact that we can jump straight to Euron being king without any problems whatsoever that I can see and despite the fact that they're taking one of the main players on a clearly different path.

I believe that Jeyne Poole is being cut because 1) I want her to be based on my belief that the whole notion of this storyline was shaky to begin with in the books and would be even more problematic in a visual medium. 2) I also think the execution of the story depends on you introducing a bunch of internal Northern lord/bannerman allegiances that the show is not going to explore. And 3) most importantly, if you wanted this story to work, there were things you would have needed to do in previous seasons to plant the seed that the show clearly avoided doing which indicates to me that they aren't going to bother going about it in the sense that they are going to have another girl pose as a fake Arya.

In terms of why I believe the Kingsmoot (or some form of it) is still in: I think that they need to have Euron and Victarion introduced and the Kingsmoot (coming in the aftermath of Balon's death) is the most efficient way to do so. I don't believe either Balon's death or Euron taking on the crown should be events that happen off-screen especially if Euron and Vicatarion are going to be made into regular characters in the series.

I think it is significant that they chose to delay Balon's death until Season 4 when it would have made a lot of sense to simply have it happen in the S3 finale. If Yara's not going to be there (which is almost assuredly the case) then you need to bounce Balon off of another character in the Iron Islands before he dies if only for 1 or 2 quick scenes. I think the reason they didn't kill Balon off in the finale is because they need him (and his death) in S4 to bridge the gap to his brothers' introduction.

[protar]

I believe that Jeyne Poole is being cut because 1) I want her to be based on my belief that the whole notion of this storyline was shaky to begin with in the books and would be even more problematic in a visual medium. 2) I also think the execution of the story depends on you introducing a bunch of internal Northern lord/bannerman allegiances that the show is not going to explore. And 3) most importantly, if you wanted this story to work, there were things you would have needed to do in previous seasons to plant the seed that the show clearly avoided doing which indicates to me that they aren't going to bother going about it in the sense that they are going to have another girl pose as a fake Arya.

In terms of why I believe the Kingsmoot (or some form of it) is still in: I think that they need to have Euron and Victarion introduced and the Kingsmoot (coming in the aftermath of Balon's death) is the most efficient way to do so. I don't believe either Balon's death or Euron taking on the crown should be events that happen off-screen especially if Euron and Vicatarion are going to be made into regular characters in the series.

I think it is significant that they chose to delay Balon's death until Season 4 when it would have made a lot of sense to simply have it happen in the S3 finale. If Yara's not going to be there (which is almost assuredly the case) then you need to bounce Balon off of another character in the Iron Islands before he dies if only for 1 or 2 quick scenes. I think the reason they didn't kill Balon off in the finale is because they need him (and his death) in S4 to bridge the gap to his brothers' introduction.

About Jeyne Poole:

1. Well I don't really think we should be letting our personal biases let us affect her judgment of how the show will be adapted. So you'll forgive me if I don't take that as evidence Jeyne Poole will be out. :P
   
2. I agree that the dynamics of the northern lords won't be explored as extensively in the books but I still think that some of the Northern Lords will be introduced. And aside from that there are several other plot points I and others have explained above which are pretty reliant on Jeyne.
   
3. It's true D+D haven't sewn the seeds of Jeyne Poole but it seems to me that they just don't like foreshadowing things very much.
   

I don't think that Balon's death will be offscreen, but that Euron taking the throne will. He can easily be built up offscreen as was Stannis and Mance Rayder. I'd like to have the KM to build him up but it's not necessary. I also sincerely doubt that Balon will make it past the first episode. The order of the leeches suggests that Balon will be dying before Joffrey afterall. Not really much time to do what you're suggesting.

[Wilbert]

Balon was named second in the leech scene so he's going to die before Joffrey.

Fake Arya does not require setting up in the previous seasons. They managed to introduce the Reeds out of the blue, the Tullys also haven't appeared before. Jeyne Poole (or whoever they choose to pose as Arya) does not require extensive introduction. But if you need a previous season to plant the seed, you have it. Don't forget that Cersei tasked Littlefinger with finding Arya in S02E01. Thus, they might still explore it.

[King Tommen]

About Jeyne Poole:

1. Well I don't really think we should be letting our personal biases let us affect her judgment of how the show will be adapted. So you'll forgive me if I don't take that as evidence Jeyne Poole will be out. :P
   
   
2. I agree that the dynamics of the northern lords won't be explored as extensively in the books but I still think that some of the Northern Lords will be introduced. And aside from that there are several other plot points I and others have explained above which are pretty reliant on Jeyne.
   
   
3. It's true D+D haven't sewn the seeds of Jeyne Poole but it seems to me that they just don't like foreshadowing things very much.
   

I don't think that Balon's death will be offscreen, but that Euron taking the throne will. He can easily be built up offscreen as was Stannis and Mance Rayder. I'd like to have the KM to build him up but it's not necessary. I also sincerely doubt that Balon will make it past the first episode. The order of the leeches suggests that Balon will be dying before Joffrey afterall. Not really much time to do what you're suggesting.

What I'm suggesting with regards to Balon and Victarion wouldn't take long at all (like I mentioned 1 or 2 quick scenes within an episode). I think Balon's death would be a moment that would be at the end or near the end of an episode and usually you'd like to have a scene or two to setup this occurrence earlier in the episode just to remind the audience what this guy's all about before he kicks it later on. I'm not entirely sold on the PW being in E2 either so it's not necessarily a given that Balon dies in E1 (although it will be very early in the season for sure).

And I think it should be differentiate "foreshadowing" on the show and how characters are introduced. I keep seeing some posters here bringing up the Tully's and the Reeds as examples of characters "showing up" out of nowhere and using that as evidence that Jeyne Poole can do the same.

In terms of foreshadowing, while they don't go to GRRM lengths and mention something that has no relevance for another 3 books, the show often will setup an impending appearance of a new character by having other characters talk about them or remind the audience about things that they've done in the past. The Tully's showed up later on the show than they did in the books but it's not like we weren't aware that they existed. Catelyn talked about her family all the time, Walder mentioned Hoster and Riverrun a number of times. Catelyn and Lysa discussed their father etc etc. We knew that Cat's family was out there and when we finally ended up at Riverrun and met them, it wasn't like the audience was blindsided with the fact that they existed.

The Reeds were introduced later in the show than they were in the books but the place where they were introduced didn't impact the story as all. They weren't saying that they were at Winterfell the whole time and now we suddenly realized they were there. It was a delay but their presence at Winterfell wasn't necessary for their introduction to make sense.

Jeyne Poole is different however as her backstory and existence within the events previously dramatized on the show is a key plotpoint in her introduction into the Ramsay/Theon story later on. The audience needs to be made aware of her earlier on for it to make sense when she reappears. On the show, you can accomplish this a number of ways without even having to deal with casting her until you want to. A quick comment from Sansa/Cersei at any time with a random reminder from time to time would serve the purpose. Because in this case, the explanation that's going to be provided if they were to whip Jeyne Poole out from wherever they've had her for 3 seasons isn't going to ring true for the audience since they have been privy to all of the events (Sansa/Arya coming to Winterfell with their entourage, interaction with their entourage in King's Landing, the slaughter of their entire entourage after the Lannister coup) that Jeyne would have been supposedly involved in. So it would be a massive cheat for someone to say "she was there all along, we grabbed her and held her secretly for all of this time just in case something like this came up". The audience would say "That's BS, we saw all the stuff you're talking about and this girl wasn't there, this is a blatant retcon to make your story work".

So it's different. And if you choose then to say "well it doesn't have to be Jeyne Poole, it can be any random girl" now you've just removed one of the only thin threads as to why this farce would be believable in any capacity (she's from Winterfell so she looks like she's from the North and can answer any Winterfell-specific questions that come up). So it loses what little credibility it has as a fake out plot in the first place and just makes everyone involved look naive and needlessly obtuse for no good reason.

[Pinkie Baelish]

Haven't they already started filming? I guess we can count out the Greyjoys being included? I think Balon will die before Joffrey, given that Stannis says his name second in the leeches scene, but what happens then? Although the Kingsmoot occurs chronologically in season 4, bear in mind that nothing of importance happens in the Iron Islands for a long, long time. If they had the KM take place in say, 4x04 or 4x05, what happens with the ironborn for the rest of the season? They can't have Victarion/Euron sailing to Meereen for 8-9 episodes. So I'm guessing that the KM will happen in season 5, with the Crow's Eye being introduced as a new antagonist in season 5 to make up for the losses of Tywin and Joffrey.

It would be folly to exclude the KM. The TV viewers wouldn't give two shits about who replaces Balon if it weren't for the KM and the dragon horn. Euron is Westeros' first real link to Daenerys, and the dragon horn seems to have mystical powers that might have a big part to play in the future. It's not that gimmicky that the show should consider excluding it due to it being too rooted in fantasy: it's just a big horn.

[King Tommen]

Haven't they already started filming? I guess we can count out the Greyjoys being included?

They've started filming but filming goes over a number of months and different locations where some actors are not involved until much later on. Additionally, they haven't announced any new casting outside of Oberyn for S4 and this is because they're most likely holding off on the announcement until Comic-con this weekend when they have their big panel. If you remember, this is exactly what they did last year and although a couple like Dianna Rigg as Queen of Thorns leaked out ahead of then, the cast announcements were a massive surprise. They announced the Reeds, Edmure and the Blackfish, Tormund, Orell, Selyse, Shireen, Missandei, Thoros, Beric, Anguy and more all at the same time and they were for the most part, not leaked ahead. No one knew whether they would bother also having Meera along with Jojen for example or what members of the BwB that would be included. Selyse and Shireen were also characters that many speculated were going to be cut from the series entirely.

So after this weekend (Friday is when the panel is), I expect we'll have a much better understanding of who is and isn't in S4.

We can expect a video much like this one within a few days (although with fewer characters most likely):

Edit: I just remembered that there were some characters who weren't announced last year until well into August (Mance, "boy", Locke) so even if we get some names this week, it doesn't necessarily mean they are finished with the casting.

[King Tommen]

Jeyne Poole (or whoever they choose to pose as Arya) does not require extensive introduction. But if you need a previous season to plant the seed, you have it. Don't forget that Cersei tasked Littlefinger with finding Arya in S02E01. Thus, they might still explore it.

That was explored and closed off definitively when Cersei told LF in S3 to spy on the Tyrell's to get info on their Sansa marriage plot. She told him that he should to a better job with this task than his last failed task which was to find Arya.

[Pinkie Baelish]

Aren't they well overdue with finding a fake Arya? IIRC, LF had suggested the idea to Tywin at the start of ASOS. If they do introduce her at this point, I doubt it will be due to LF's doing.

[Wilbert]

In the books fake Arya is revealed after PW and Cersei acknowledges LF for finding her in AFFC so it can still be done in some way. One possibility would be: E1 ends with real Arya's cliffhanger. Before E3 you remind the audience about the scene at Harrenhall and LF/Cersei. At the beginning of the episode you tease Jaime and the audience by letting him know that they have a bride for Ramsay and in the last scence we see that she's not Arya. Alternatively, the plot can be introduced after PW when the chances on Sansa's and Tyrion's child are gone. This would be then Tywin/Roose notion.

ETA: Fake Arya does not need to speak much. We know that during her wedding everybody is too ignorant/afraid of Boltons to ask difficult questions. And, as I mentioned, we all know how ruthless the Boltons are. They might plan to keep Ramsay's bride in her bedchambers until she gives them the heir to Winterfell and get rid of her afterwards.

[YTDN]

In the books fake Arya is revealed after PW and Cersei acknowledges LF for finding her in AFFC so it can still be done in some way. One possibility would be: E1 ends with real Arya's cliffhanger. Before E3 you remind the audience about the scene at Harrenhall and LF/Cersei. At the beginning of the episode you tease Jaime and the audience by letting him know that they have a bride for Ramsay and in the last scence we see that she's not Arya. Alternatively, the plot can be introduced after PW when the chances on Sansa's and Tyrion's child are gone. This would be then Tywin/Roose notion.

ETA: Fake Arya does not need to speak much. We know that during her wedding everybody is too ignorant/afraid of Boltons to ask difficult questions. And, as I mentioned, we all know how ruthless the Boltons are. They might plan to keep Ramsay's bride in her bedchambers until she gives them the heir to Winterfell and get rid of her afterwards.

I know in the books Jeyne stayed in her room the whole time in Winterfell, which was why the spearwives needed Theon to get past the guards. Also, the Boltons plan was to get "Arya pregnant" with a Bolton child, and it would make sense for them to just get rid of her once the baby is born, have her 'die in childbirth' or something.

[Lord Stunny]

You forget season 4 is a continuation of the book 3....

[protar]

What I'm suggesting with regards to Balon and Victarion wouldn't take long at all (like I mentioned 1 or 2 quick scenes within an episode). I think Balon's death would be a moment that would be at the end or near the end of an episode and usually you'd like to have a scene or two to setup this occurrence earlier in the episode just to remind the audience what this guy's all about before he kicks it later on. I'm not entirely sold on the PW being in E2 either so it's not necessarily a given that Balon dies in E1 (although it will be very early in the season for sure).

Fair enough. It could potentially done, however I really don't think they're doing the KM. Yara's role in that is more important than her taking the place of a character that doesn't need to be replaced in the first place. We'll have to wait and see I guess, but in any case it seems Yara will not be featuring in the KM, which is a big mistake imo.

And I think it should be differentiate "foreshadowing" on the show and how characters are introduced. I keep seeing some posters here bringing up the Tully's and the Reeds as examples of characters "showing up" out of nowhere and using that as evidence that Jeyne Poole can do the same.

In terms of foreshadowing, while they don't go to GRRM lengths and mention something that has no relevance for another 3 books, the show often will setup an impending appearance of a new character by having other characters talk about them or remind the audience about things that they've done in the past. The Tully's showed up later on the show than they did in the books but it's not like we weren't aware that they existed. Catelyn talked about her family all the time, Walder mentioned Hoster and Riverrun a number of times. Catelyn and Lysa discussed their father etc etc. We knew that Cat's family was out there and when we finally ended up at Riverrun and met them, it wasn't like the audience was blindsided with the fact that they existed.

The Reeds were introduced later in the show than they were in the books but the place where they were introduced didn't impact the story as all. They weren't saying that they were at Winterfell the whole time and now we suddenly realized they were there. It was a delay but their presence at Winterfell wasn't necessary for their introduction to make sense.

Then don't say that Jeyne Poole is from Winterfell. In reality she can be any northern girl from any farm or holdfast who vaguely looks like Arya. Then she's not retconned into existence, we just haven't met her yet - like the Reeds. Viola, Theon's arc isn't ruined.

So it's different. And if you choose then to say "well it doesn't have to be Jeyne Poole, it can be any random girl" now you've just removed one of the only thin threads as to why this farce would be believable in any capacity (she's from Winterfell so she looks like she's from the North and can answer any Winterfell-specific questions that come up). So it loses what little credibility it has as a fake out plot in the first place and just makes everyone involved look naive and needlessly obtuse for no good reason.

I really don't see why you quibble with such minor, easily rewritable details in regards to Jeyne, and yet ignore the massive problems using Yara in her place would cause. All we need is one scene of Theon teaching her about Winterfell, and by the time the Northern Lords arrive she's competent enough in her role to pull the wool over people's eyes. Especially if she does in fact look like Arya.

I am honestly quite baffled as to why you don't think introducing Jeyne is much simpler. Let's look at the problems involved with each potential option.

Jeyne:

• The actresses age: Easy, just cast an 18 year old, Maisie will be 17 at this time afterall.
  
• Jeyne coming from nowhere: Easy, it's been done before with the Reeds.
  
• Jeyne wouldn't be able to convince anyone if she's not from Winterfell: Easy, one scene of Theon teaching her about Winterfell.
  

Yara:

• Theon's devolution into Reek is completely destroyed with his sister there: No solution if he and Yara are interacting.
  
• He doesn't get an innocent to save: Only solution is break Yara down ridiculously quickly, in complete defiance of her character.
  
• If the above happens Yara's character and arc will be completely changed in later seasons: No solution if Yara is reekified. Pick your poison, which character arc do you want ruin?
  
• Makes no political sense for Ramsay to marry Yara. He's not trying to ally with the Ironborn: Although he doesn't have to marrying Yara, he can just be keeping her hostage.
  
• But then, there's no reason for the Northern Lords to be at Winterfell: They could just be coming to swear fealty, but then why stick around?
  
• No motivation for the Mountain Clans to join Stannis: Fair enough, they can just want to liberate Winterfell.
  
• No motivation for Jon to march on Winterfell: Same as abbove.
  
• In the books Jeyne is still in disguise as Arya, meaning she likely has some role to play as Farya in TWOW: No solution if Yara takes Jeyne's place. Whatever subplot results from this will be written out.
  
• No reason for Mance to go to Winterfell. Presumably Mance will have a major role to play in TWOW: No solution whatsoever. Major rewrite of the plot likely necessary in S6.
  

So a quick tally. For Jeyne that's three tiny problems all easily solvable. For Yara, 9 issues, only 3 of which can easily be written around, 2 of which can be solved but in a very sloppy manner, and 4 of which have no solution other than completely rewriting the story.