The Great Northern Conspiracy REALISTICALLY/and GRRM comments?

[Borsabil]

The ToJ scene is another of case if GRRM using an unreliable narrator. The reader is looking through the scene in a haze. Details are not clear. However, some of this stuff (like the wet-nurse) GRRM just didn't even think about. It's not the first time he has drop the ball on details.

You could be right, but it could be that GRRM has left out details for a reason. Hold on a sec we KNOW he's left out details, the mst obvious one being the pregnancy itself as well as Jons identity. I think there's lots we don't know about the events at the ToJ.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

You said that Howland took a terrible wound which was why we'd not seen him in the books:

"I wouldn't call him an idiot, but I would have simply taken the KG out from horseback with bows and crossbows. GRRM pretty much said Ser Arthur was all but invincible with Dawn in his hand. I always assumed Howland Reed took a blow for Ned, giving him the split second he needed to mortally wound Dayne. I think that is why Lord Howland has never left Greywater Watch/the Neck since the war. He took a terrible wound from Ser Arthur Dayne to save his friends life."

So like I said, not only was Ned lactating to feed the baby Jon (absent a wet nurse) he was also taking care of his mortally wounded friend......by himself?........k

GRRM tells us that he visited Starfall to return Dawn, we've also heard tell that Jon had a milk mother at Starfall. Martin does not mention him visiting anywhere else. As you say leave the story telling to the author, except that doesn't stop you from claiming detours with a baby and wounded friend that are never mentioned in the books.

1. I stand corrected on my terrible wound comment. But I also stand by my assertion that Ned likely visited one of the aforementioned castles on the way to Starfall. It makes too much sense....even for you I suppose. I'm just taking the information that I actually have available to me.

If you do as I suggested and take a look at the maps of ASOIAF, you will see that the ride from the Prince's Pass to Starfall is not a short one. In addition to being home to a huge desert and blazing heat, Dorne's geography is more than likely unknown to Ned. Not plausible with a newborn, a wounded ally, and any wounds that Ned himself likely had from Dayne. He would need to stop medical aid, provisions, and directions.

2. Edric Dayne tells us that he and Jon were milk brothers and that Wylla was Jon's mother. Ned tells Robert that Wylla was Jon's mother, but speaks of it to no one else. Cat and the rest of the North believe that Ashara Dayne is the likely candidate.

Edric Dayne is four years younger that Jon. This means Edric was not even close to being born (287 AL) when Ned and Jon were at Starfall (283 AL). I have no idea how Edric got this information or the notion about Jon, but the point remains the same. Wylla is/was nothing but a convenient scapegoat for one of two possible lies that Ned was prepared to tell depending on Jon's looks. Had Jon turned out to have siver-gold or platinum hair, Lady Ashara would have been Ned's scapegoat.

3. Finally, using all of the available information (including maps) and staying within the author's narrative, which I have done, is nowhere near the act of highjacking the author's narrative and rewriting it to suggest a different outcome, which you have done.

I say again, leave the storytelling to GRRM.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

You could be right, but it could be that GRRM has left out details for a reason. Hold on a sec we KNOW he's left out details, the mst obvious one being the pregnancy itself as well as Jons identity. I think there's lots we don't know about the events at the ToJ.

Lyanna's pregnancy and Jon's identity are central points in the overall narrative. GRRM also more than enough clues for most of his readers to reach the conclusion that they have reached.....Lyanna was pregnant with Rhaegar's child and made Ned promise to keep his safe/secret.

Hidden characters within the realm of ASOIAF that know the key secret to the entire story? Thats just you rewriting the story to fit your own needs.

Sorry, it just doesn't work.

[Borsabil]

1. I stand corrected on my terrible wound comment. But I also stand by my assertion that Ned likely visited one of the aforementioned castles on the way to Starfall. It makes too much sense....even for you I suppose. I'm just taking the information that I actually have available to me.

If you do as I suggested and take a look at the maps of ASOIAF, you will see that the ride from the Prince's Pass to Starfall is not a short one. In addition to being home to a huge desert and blazing heat, Dorne's geography is more than likely unknown to Ned. Not plausible with a newborn, a wounded ally, and any wounds that Ned himself likely had from Dayne. He would need to stop medical aid, provisions, and directions.

2. Edric Dayne tells us that he and Jon were milk brothers and that Wylla was Jon's mother. Ned tells Robert that Wylla was Jon's mother, but speaks of it to no one else. Cat and the rest of the North believe that Ashara Dayne is the likely candidate.

Edric Dayne is four years younger that Jon. This means Edric was not even close to being born (287 AL) when Ned and Jon were at Starfall (283 AL). I have no idea how Edric got this information or the notion about Jon, but the point remains the same. Wylla is/was nothing but a convenient scapegoat for one of two possible lies that Ned was prepared to tell depending on Jon's looks. Had Jon turned out to have siver-gold or platinum hair, Lady Ashara would have been Ned's scapegoat.

3. Finally, using all of the available information (including maps) and staying within the author's narrative, which I have done, is nowhere near the act of highjacking the author's narrative and rewriting it to suggest a different outcome, which you have done.

I say again, leave the storytelling to GRRM.

Jeez ok...

1) only you are speculating that Reed was wounded, nowhere in the text is this suggested let alone stated as fact. You construct a made up problem, how Ned could have made it to Starfall with a wounded man and a newborn and proffer a solution, that Ned stopped somewhere else for medical care and milk. None of this is written the books.

So let's be logical. How was the baby Jon fed while his mother lay dying? I have three children of my own, newborns won't last long without milk. Absent a wet nurse or a handy herd of goats how did Jon survive to make it anywhere. And what kind of KG would not call in some local girl to provide milk for the heir, even assuming your Ser Arthur as midwife theory is correct? (can't believe I wrote the last part with a straight face btw)

2) Edric stated that he and Jon were milk brothers. You have taken this to mean that he was claiming he and Jon were suckled on the same tit(s) at the same time, I've always assumed that he was simply stating that they were breastfed by the same woman and no more.

3) no one is rewriting anything. I'm asking logical questions without complete information. You otoh are asserting that Reed and even Ned were wounded in battle. That Ned stopped in unknown locations. That no help was organized for Lyanna's pregnancy.

If a wet nurse was there, and so far you ave not explained how shr could not have been and still have a live baby, then it would explain how Ned made it to Starfall without needing to seek help elsewhere . If the nurse stayed at Starfall when Ned left it would explain how Edric and Jon could have had the same milk mother. You see? Consistent with the text and not inserting 'facts'.

[kav2001c]

So let's be logical. How was the baby Jon fed while his mother lay dying? I have three children of my own, newborns won't last long without milk. Absent a wet nurse or a handy herd of goats how did Jon survive to make it anywhere. And what kind of KG would not call in some local girl to provide milk for the heir, even assuming your Ser Arthur as midwife theory is correct? (can't believe I wrote the last part with a straight face btw)

You answered your own question

AFTER the birth I am sure he picked up someone to help feed the baby

But either way commoners (lower class) certainly would not be of note to a lord

Even if their they can be overlooked and the idea of tracking one down years later in a foreign country is just silly

BTW and it is quite easy for a male to feed a baby anyhow. Just need a food source

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Jeez ok...

1) only you are speculating that Reed was wounded, nowhere in the text is this suggested let alone stated as fact. You construct a made up problem, how Ned could have made it to Starfall with a wounded man and a newborn and proffer a solution, that Ned stopped somewhere else for medical care and milk. None of this is written the books.

So let's be logical. How was the baby Jon fed while his mother lay dying? I have three children of my own, newborns won't last long without milk. Absent a wet nurse or a handy herd of goats how did Jon survive to make it anywhere. And what kind of KG would not call in some local girl to provide milk for the heir, even assuming your Ser Arthur as midwife theory is correct? (can't believe I wrote the last part with a straight face btw)

2) Edric stated that he and Jon were milk brothers. You have taken this to mean that he was claiming he and Jon were suckled on the same tit(s) at the same time, I've always assumed that he was simply stating that they were breastfed by the same woman and no more.

3) no one is rewriting anything. I'm asking logical questions without complete information. You otoh are asserting that Reed and even Ned were wounded in battle. That Ned stopped in unknown locations. That no help was organized for Lyanna's pregnancy.

If a wet nurse was there, and so far you ave not explained how shr could not have been and still have a live baby, then it would explain how Ned made it to Starfall without needing to seek help elsewhere . If the nurse stayed at Starfall when Ned left it would explain how Edric and Jon could have had the same milk mother. You see? Consistent with the text and not inserting 'facts'.

1. We don't know the exact timing of Jon's birth, Ned's arrival, and Lyanna's condition. Its certainly possible that Lyanna could have nursed for a time before her body gave out. Alternatively, ToJ is located just south of Kingsgrave. Skyreach is just east of Kingsgrave. Both locations would have the goats/goats milk to the KG needed. KG helping with a delivery is plausible, not seeing your problem.

2. Either way the main point I'm making remains the same. Wylla was not called to ToJ to wetnurse Jon. If she wetnursed Jon, it was while Ned and Jon were in Starfall for a brief visit. Wylla is nothing more than a pawn for keeping Ned's secret.

3. Ned was in single combat with arguably the greatest warrior in the history of Westeros. He did battle with at least one other very dangerous fighter. Common sense tells me that he did not come out of the encounter unscathed.

If you have been reading the books, which I'm going to go ahead and assume you have been, you would know that Skyreach (House Fowler, Wardens of the Prince's Pass), Kingsgrave (House Manwoody), and Blackmont (House Black) are home to three of the greatest lords in all of Dorne. I would hardly call these places unknown. All are in the vicinity of the ToJ and all would be passed before reaching Starfall.

Of all of Dorne's weapons, the most deadly are their sands and the sun (Prince Oberyn Martell). There is just no way Ned is going to make it Starfall without stopping for aid at one of these locations. Additionally, Ned was raised in the North and fostered in the Vale. He is not going to know the geography of Dorne without aid.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

You answered your own question

AFTER the birth I am sure he picked up someone to help feed the baby

But either way commoners (lower class) certainly would not be of note to a lord

Even if their they can be overlooked and the idea of tracking one down years later in a foreign country is just silly

BTW and it is quite easy for a male to feed a baby anyhow. Just need a food source

Agreed, all that was required was milk, which was readily available at nearby castles. Milk could have been acquired without rousing any suspicions.

[Borsabil]

You answered your own question

AFTER the birth I am sure he picked up someone to help feed the baby

But either way commoners (lower class) certainly would not be of note to a lord

Even if their they can be overlooked and the idea of tracking one down years later in a foreign country is just silly

BTW and it is quite easy for a male to feed a baby anyhow. Just need a food source

Ned found her in a bed of blood, assuming she took sick after she gave birth the KG tasked with looking after the royal, that is baby Jon, would have as their first priority making sure he was taken care off. If there is nothing in the book about a wet nurse being provided for Jon at some point shortly after his birth when Lyanna took sick, then I would view that as an oversight on the part of GRRM. Newborns will last only a few days without milk, and even goats milk will only sustain an infant for a relatively short period. Why take a risk with a royal baby when a KG could nip over to the nearest village and grab a girl? This is a medieval world after all, lactating women would be ten a penny.

[Starkfaithful85]

for me, he'll only go south of the neck to deal with the Freys at the twins.

Kinda a side question but just how many of the frey's are left at the twins...they moved some of their men at arms to riverrun...and have sent I think 2000 up north...if the northern frey force is defeated and the ones in the riverlands slowly start being killed by the BWB and the ones at riverrun are killed at a red wedding 2.0 how many men could they actually field...cause There could still be some cerwyn, tallhart, and ryswell men left over from the RW and there are theories that those soldiers are at greywater watch. If I am thinking about this properly that the only force that would remain would be the force at the twins(not really sure how large this force is )

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Kinda a side question but just how many of the frey's are left at the twins...they moved some of their men at arms to riverrun...and have sent I think 2000 up north...if the northern frey force is defeated and the ones in the riverlands slowly start being killed by the BWB and the ones at riverrun are killed at a red wedding 2.0 how many men could they actually field...cause There could still be some cerwyn, tallhart, and ryswell men left over from the RW and there are theories that those soldiers are at greywater watch. If I am thinking about this properly that the only force that would remain would be the force at the twins(not really sure how large this force is )

You are correct. The Freys can field 1000 horse and 3000 foot for a total of 4000 men. 400 men guard the Twins. 2000 men were sent North with Roose Bolton. With losses already inflicted by the war and even more from the BWB the Freys may be down to1200-1500 men or so.

However, Daven Lannister's host is still about, He will have roughly 10,000 men or so,

[Heyo Winter Comin']

You are correct. The Freys can field 1000 horse and 3000 foot for a total of 4000 men. 400 men guard the Twins. 2000 men were sent North with Roose Bolton. With losses already inflicted by the war and even more from the BWB the Freys may be down to1200-1500 men or so.

However, Daven Lannister's host is still about, He will have roughly 10,000 men or so,

I don't think Daven's host is still about. It's been a couple of months at least in the epilogue since Jaime went missing, and he personally negotiated the surrender of the Blackwoods, with the last holdout before that being Riverrun. Daven mentioned how he was struggling to feed his men, there isn't much reason for him not to have continued heading home and disbanding his army. Nothing in the text states they're still in the Riverlands.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

I don't think Daven's host is still about. It's been a couple of months at least in the epilogue since Jaime went missing, and he personally negotiated the surrender of the Blackwoods, with the last holdout before that being Riverrun. Daven mentioned how he was struggling to feed his men, there isn't much reason for him not to have continued heading home and disbanding his army. Nothing in the text states they're still in the Riverlands.

Nothing states that they left either. Last we was the Warden of the West, he was still encamped near Riverrun. All of the River Lords may have been subdued, but Brendan Tully, Lady Stoneheart, and the BwB are still about. Jaime and his host were meant to wrap things up and head back to King's Landing. Daven's host was likely meant more as a peace keeping/occupation force.

Daven was struggling to feed his men because he was besieging Riverrun and the Blackfish picked the surrounding area clean. Daven need not keep his entire host in the Riverladns. Half or a bit less than half would more than sufficient to augment the Freys at the Twins and at Riverrun. Additionally, Kevan Lannister said the best part the Lannister's remaining forces were in the Riverlands, fast melting away, not melted. Tywin's original army is that army that returned home and disbanded, minus the 2000 men who went to Dragonstone.

[Black Wolf Smith]

Kinda a side question but just how many of the frey's are left at the twins...they moved some of their men at arms to riverrun...and have sent I think 2000 up north...if the northern frey force is defeated and the ones in the riverlands slowly start being killed by the BWB and the ones at riverrun are killed at a red wedding 2.0 how many men could they actually field...cause

There were about 4,500 to start the Wo5K, w/ a standing guard of 400 staying at the twins. If they had only had a 10% (and it was likely more) lost between the war and the RW add to the ones that BwB took would put them less then 4,000 total. W/ 2,000 men up north, 400 as standing guard at the Twins and say the same at/going to RR would give them 1,200 most of whom would have been laying seige at RR. So I would think that they have 1,000 or less still at the Twins.

There won't be a RW 2.0. Not even close. Not going to happen. There has been a murder/death at every wedding we have been to in Westeros, so there might be a wedding, and the will be death, but don't try to make into something it won't be. We had a RW, a Purple W, and I like to call the Fake one Grey. We might have a Blue wedding next time, but not Red.

[First of My Name]

There were about 4,500 to start the Wo5K, w/ a standing guard of 400 staying at the twins. If they had only had a 10% (and it was likely more) lost between the war and the RW add to the ones that BwB took would put them less then 4,000 total. W/ 2,000 men up north, 400 as standing guard at the Twins and say the same at/going to RR would give them 1,200 most of whom would have been laying seige at RR. So I would think that they have 1,000 or less still at the Twins.

There won't be a RW 2.0. Not even close. Not going to happen. There has been a murder/death at every wedding we have been to in Westeros, so there might be a wedding, and the will be death, but don't try to make into something it won't be. We had a RW, a Purple W, and I like to call the Fake one Grey. We might have a Blue wedding next time, but not Red.

Blue for the rivers at Riverrun? That's where Daven's wedding is being held.

Also, who died at the wedding of Sansa and Tyrion? Ramsay and Jeyne? And the one at the Wall, the R'hllor one? And Tommen and Margaery (or was that off-screen?)

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Blue for the rivers at Riverrun? That's where Daven's wedding is being held.

Also, who died at the wedding of Sansa and Tyrion? Ramsay and Jeyne? And the one at the Wall, the R'hllor one? And Tommen and Margaery (or was that off-screen?)

I'm confused by this as well. Aside from the Red Wedding and Joffery dying at the royal wedding, I'm not sure what the poster is getting at.

[kav2001c]

Ramsey killed his former bride as well (the northerners remember)

[mushroomshirt]

Ramsey killed his former bride as well (the northerners remember)

One of my favorite quotes. From Barbrey Dustin.

"And Lord Wyman is not the only man who lost kin at your Red Wedding, Frey. Do you imagine Whoresbane loves you any better? If you did not hold the Greatjon, he would pull out your entrails and make you eat them as Lady Hornwood ate her fingers. Flints, Cerwyns, Tallarts, Slates ... they all had men with the Young Wolf."

"House Ryswell too," said Roger Ryswell.

"Even Dustins out of Barrowton." Lady Dustin parted her lips in a think, feral smile. "The north remembers, Frey."

[Brother Seamus]

Ned found her in a bed of blood, assuming she took sick after she gave birth the KG tasked with looking after the royal, that is baby Jon, would have as their first priority making sure he was taken care off. If there is nothing in the book about a wet nurse being provided for Jon at some point shortly after his birth when Lyanna took sick, then I would view that as an oversight on the part of GRRM. Newborns will last only a few days without milk, and even goats milk will only sustain an infant for a relatively short period. Why take a risk with a royal baby when a KG could nip over to the nearest village and grab a girl? This is a medieval world after all, lactating women would be ten a penny.

wtf are you arguing about?

[Brother Seamus]

I'd be amazed if Rhaegar didn't at least provide for a midwife, in fact I'm sure he'd have left provision for servants and a Maester. Why would Rhaegar want to keep things so secret? Did he expect to die when he rode north? Anyway the idea he wouldn't have provided for the birth of his own son, who he thinks is the PtwP because he might lose a war, is well ....silly.

By the time Ned got there Lyanna had already given birth, perhaps days before. She was in a bed of blood, postpartum hemorrhage, which means that any measter/midwife would still be there tending to her. I'm thinking more than Howland Reed know about R + L = J. Ned didn't mention anyone else in his flashback, but I don't think that proves much as it was written to reveal only fragments of memory, with the bits GRRM didn't want the reader to know left out I.e the identity of the baby (obviously) and what went down during and after the fight at ToJ.

We assume Howland Reed is the only one who knows Jon's true identity because Ned thought about him when he flashed back to seeing his sister before she died. We don't know for sure who else was there. We don't know what Ned told the Daynes when he took Dawn back to Starfall. I guess something along the lines of 'hey guys, sorry to tell you but Arthurs dead, I killed him as he wouldn't give me Lyanna back. Where's she? Oh she's dead as well. What's that? Well I don't want to talk about how she died but anyway I brought back Dawn oh and I took my new bastard with me for the visit, anyone got spare milk?' I think more than Reed know about Jon's identity, which will be very important when GRRM is deciding how to reveal. In other words it's highly likely we'll get a more detailed explanation of what happened at theToJ.

Silly? Once again, you write as if you know the story, which you do not. Why keep it so secret? Oh....let me see...the prince of the realm has eloped with the betrothed daughter of one the greatest lords in all of the realm, shaming his wife, her family and all of Dorne. Not mention backstabbing his cousin, whom was also one of the greatest lords in all the realm. Time and secrecy were of the essence.

The lack of a midwife may also explain Lyanna's death to some degree. Ser Arthur Dayne or Oswell Whent seeing to the birth and not being familiar with the proper procedures of the day could have aided in her demise. By the time Ned reached her, it is likely she had just given birth within a few hours of his arrival. All of the blood being the result of a harried and rushed pregnancy. If Lyanna was being tended by servants and a midwife its highly unlikely they would have left her lying in a bed soaked with her own blood. And I don't see Ned Stark silencing small folk.

But the very idea of all of this is just silly. You obviously know the story. GRRM leaving Ned and Howland Reed as the lone survivors is just an accident.

so, the issue you're debating is whether someone other than Howland Reed must/could/might have known of Jon's (presumed) parentage, and whether that person is still alive, so as to provide another possible means for us/the characters in the story to learn about it. Correct?

I can answer that with 100% certainty: neither of the two of you has any idea, nor does anyone else, except GRRM, if he's even thought about it; and, at present, the story has been left open enough that he could write it today any way he wants in order to go in either direction.

While it stands to reason that, since Rhaegar was the crown prince of the realm, he would have been surrounded by numerous people, at any of multiple time points, from whom it would have been impossible to keep the affair, the pregnancy and the birth a secret, it's also entirely plausible that he kept it secret from all but very few, and they're all dead, whether killed at the TOJ or elsewhere.

It's also entirely plausible that in the first weeks/months after Jon's birth, there were numerous people who learned the secret, and they are now either all dead, in which case HR remains the sole possessor of the knowledge, or they're not, in which case HR is not the sole possessor.

It's also possible, and I think more likely given the seriousness with which Ned took his oath to Lyanna, that he did keep it secret. And again, since we know so little, there's no plot impediment to GRRM writing it either way if need be.

Finally, all this rests on the notion that there's this huge secret, R + L = J, that GRRM has set up but not revealed. So, pretty much by definition the premise is that (a) there's this huge secret but (b ) it will eventually be revealed. Now, it's possible for both those propositions to hold while there are 2 -4-8-10-20 people who know the secret, but, the more people who know the less likely, right? Doesn't it stand to reason both from an internal consistency/plausibility perspective, and from a dramatic perspective, that there would be only one person? And we're already given the obvious candidate: Howland Reed. How it came to pass that HR could be the only one who knows could be plausibly explained in a hundred different ways.

.

[Anima]

I think TGNC is extremely unlikely. There are absolutely no true hints pointing towards that subplot. In fact to put it plainly it seems far too much like a fantasy that "North" fans would cook up for their own liking. And that is precisely why it is so hard to believe that GRRM would put such a simpleminded plot in the book. It paints the North as almost a Paragon of "Good" except for the wretched Boltons.

The North is covered with white snow but underneath there are corpses and blood. No one is perfect in ASOIAF, not even Jon or Stannis or the Onion knight (got a blank for his name, it will come back...).