The Iron Bank's Plan B

[Jon of the Dead]

Apologies if this has been mentioned before. So, I was thinking about the Iron Bank's support of Stannis and there's something that doesn't add up: If the Iron Bank always gets its due, why are they putting all their eggs in one basket? More especifically, why are they putting all their eggs on a basket that is currently fighting the Boltons in the middle of a blizzard with a bunch of starving men? I'm no banker but that seems like a risky investment.

So, I thought I'd get the ball rolling and think on a few options that the Iron Bank is already considering as Plan B in case Stannis fails:

1) Shireen: Stannis' men are instructed to support her if he dies, but I don't see many people gathering to fight for a sickly little girl (you saw Val's reaction, Shireen doesn't exactly inspire courage).

2) Jon: Tycho Nestoris and Jon seemed to get along. Maybe Tycho saw good qualities in Jon: a good leader, capable of gathering different men for his cause, mature. I'd say the Wildlings and the Northmen would rather follow Jon than Shireen, so maybe Tycho took note of that. Additionally,

we know from the Theon gift chapter that Stannis sent Tycho back to the Wall with Justin Massey to board a ship to Braavos and find sellswords. Something tells me he won't be getting sellswords for Shireen if Stannis falls, especially if he finds a full-on resurrected Jon on the Wall

3) Asha: My own pet theory. As we know, Tycho came to Deepwood searching for Stannis, where he ransomed Qarl, Tris and the rest of Asha's men to be his guard. It is possible that on the way to Stannis' camp, the Ironborn told Tycho about Asha's good qualities as a leader and a warrior, how she came pretty close to winning the Kingsmoot, etc. Maybe Tycho started considering her as good investment in case Stannis falls.

We know that Asha needs Theon to undo the Kingsmoot. I'd like to think she wants to rescue Theon for less selfish motives (indignation for Ramsey's actions, concern for her own mother, etc). We also know Dagmer Cleftjaw and his men hold Torrhen's Square. Also,

in the gift chapter, when Asha tells Stannis to kill Theon himself, it has all the feeling of an ambush: Asha needs Theon, she wouldn't let him die so easily. The heart tree is located next to a frozen lake, a pretty convinient location for an ambush. Maybe Dagmer and his men are waiting there, hidden. They may be few but remember Stannis' men are few as well and it's the middle of a blizzard, they have the element of surprise. Maybe Tycho and the Ironborn made a quick stop at Torrhen's Square to work out the details of this ambush before meeting Stannis.

With Theon and Asha free and safe, the Iron Bank could have a couple of aces up its sleeve in case Stannis dies.

4) Rickon: If we believe the Great Northern Conspiracy, the Umbers outside Winterfell likely know about Rickon, since Manderly knows as well. Tycho met them when he picked Theon and Jeyne, so maybe they exchanged information and the Iron Bank know is counting on Rickon.

5) Aegon / Dany: Between Illirio being magister of Pentos (and the Free Cities seem to be always scheming against each other) and the Faceless Men seemingly being anti-Targ, I don't see the Iron Bank supporting a dragon just yet, but who knows.

So, opinions / feedback / complains are welcome :)

[no_payne_no_gain]

5) Aegon / Dany: Between Illirio being magister of Pentos (and the Free Cities seem to be always scheming against each other) and the Faceless Men seemingly being anti-Targ, I don't see the Iron Bank supporting a dragon just yet, but who knows.

The Iron Bank of Braavos, right? Remember that Braavos was originally a colony of escaped slaves from Valyria. I don't think the Braavosi Bank would be too keen on supporting the blood of old valyria.

For all we know, Braavos still holds a grudge against the Targs, so I can't see The IBoB supporting either Dany or Aegon. However, the remaining Targs, did flee to Braavos after RR...

[juanml82]

I think the less risky Plan B is Aegon. No dragons, might ally with Danny if she ever leaves Slaver's Bay and he's going for the capitol. Neither Asha nor Rickon can claim the Iron Throne, neither by rights nor force. I don't even think the Iron Bank would have sent Nestoris if they knew how much in trouble Stannis was. All they knew was that he was building up an army at the edge of the world when they've sent Nestoris.

[The Mountain That Flies]

Numbers 2-4 don't make much sense for the Iron Bank. Asha and Rickon all have zero claim to the Iron Throne (which is who the debt is owed by in the first place), and unless R+L=J is revealed to Tycho very quickly, I don't see the Bank being involved in that part of Jon's storyline.

Realistically, the IB has to kow about Dany and her dragons, and will likely hear about Aegon and the Golden Company very soon. Aegon has Illyrio on his side to help negotioate, so I see him as the IB's next canidate (or Aegon supplanting Stannis as the primary one depending on how things go in the South).

[Lady of Long Lake]

He's such a captivating minor character! Thanks for making a thread about him. I'm just re-reading AFFC and read the chapter he chatted with Cersei. She was so jerky to him and I think the IB would gleefully support anyone other than her. Your theory sounds good. They may be supporting several candidates, hoping that whoever wins in the end is less evil than the current regimen.

[Jon of the Dead]

I think the less risky Plan B is Aegon. No dragons, might ally with Danny if she ever leaves Slaver's Bay and he's going for the capitol. Neither Asha nor Rickon can claim the Iron Throne, neither by rights nor force. I don't even think the Iron Bank would have sent Nestoris if they knew how much in trouble Stannis was. All they knew was that he was building up an army at the edge of the world when they've sent Nestoris.

I've always felt Aegon is in Pentos' pocket, so to speak. And I don't see Aegon joining Dany considering

the heavy foreshadowing of a next Dance of the Dragons in Arianne's gift chapter

but who knows.

Regarding Asha and Rickon, if I were the Iron Bank I'd rather have an agreement with the king or queen of a certain part of Westeros, be it the North or the Iron Islands, than an agreement with the dead heir of the Iron Throne. At least Asha and Rickon have a claim to a throne, which is better than nothing. If Stannis dies, the Iron Bank gets nothing.

[Yakman]

I don't think any of these things, barring supporting Shireen make a ton of sense.

The Iron Bank has very few options to try to get its money back. What it is trying to do is support Stannis not so much that he wins - highly unlikely - but that he stays in the fight. At some point, the Iron Bank goes to the Iron Throne and says "Start paying us back, or we'll keep Stannis in the field."

If Stannis wins, so much the better. Either way, the Bank gets paid (hopefully).

As far as Aegon/Dany go, the Iron Bank is likely not a part of any such conspiracy. They lent bizarre amounts of money to Robert Baratheon, and there is no guarantee that a Targaryen would honor Baratheon debts. Moreover, Aegon has launched his own invasion of Westeros with nary a Braavosi in sight.

My feeling is that Cersei told the bank off, its rep went back home to explain the situation, and they said, oh, Stannis is on the Wall. Let's send a fellow out there to see if backing him would make sense. Nothing extraordinary or sinister about it.

[Jon of the Dead]

I don't think any of these things, barring supporting Shireen make a ton of sense.

The Iron Bank has very few options to try to get its money back. What it is trying to do is support Stannis not so much that he wins - highly unlikely - but that he stays in the fight. At some point, the Iron Bank goes to the Iron Throne and says "Start paying us back, or we'll keep Stannis in the field."

If Stannis wins, so much the better. Either way, the Bank gets paid (hopefully).

As far as Aegon/Dany go, the Iron Bank is likely not a part of any such conspiracy. They lent bizarre amounts of money to Robert Baratheon, and there is no guarantee that a Targaryen would honor Baratheon debts. Moreover, Aegon has launched his own invasion of Westeros with nary a Braavosi in sight.

My feeling is that Cersei told the bank off, its rep went back home to explain the situation, and they said, oh, Stannis is on the Wall. Let's send a fellow out there to see if backing him would make sense. Nothing extraordinary or sinister about it.

At this point the diplomatic relationship between the IT and the Iron Bank is at a full low. Kevan wanted to send Harys Swift to Braavos to try and fix up that mess but who knows what's going to happen now after Kevan's death.

The Iron Bank is at a crutial moment not only to get their money back, but to aim towards putting a cooperative king on the Iron Throne. If Stannis dies, they'll be screwed so they need to consider their options. Tommen is obviously out of the question, and Euron is a psychopath. The Bank has made no attempts to contact Dany or Aegon yet, and those 2 are pretty risky investments too: Dany is currently missing and Aegon could be fake.

The Iron Bank needs people they can trust, people that inspire loyalty. A claim is worthless if there's no people to fight for it. Shireen won't inspire enough loyalty as Asha, Jon and Rickon. Plus, Tycho Nestoris has been in touch with them (Jon) or with people loyal to them (Tris, Qarl, the Umbers), so he knows they are an option. The Iron Bank knows that when the dust settles the people with a claim, whether it is to the North or to the Seastone Chair, will be the ones to keep an eye for.

[The Mountain That Flies]

Regarding Asha and Rickon, if I were the Iron Bank I'd rather have an agreement with the king or queen of a certain part of Westeros, be it the North or the Iron Islands, than an agreement with the dead heir of the Iron Throne. At least Asha and Rickon have a claim to a throne, which is better than nothing. If Stannis dies, the Iron Bank gets nothing.

The Iron Bank isn't interested in controlling random Westerosi monarchies. They want their money back, and neither the Iron islands of the North has the coin to cancel the debt of the Iron Throne. The Braavosi don't care if a turd sits on the Iron Throne, so long as said turd repays them the debt owed.

And if Stannis dies, the Iron bank still has a freeze on all private and lordly credit throughout Westeros, essentially crippling the various economies. They can force the hand of hoever sits on the IT through sheer atrition if they want, though bviously they'd rather see Stannis succeed and end this buisness.

[Yakman]

The Iron Bank didn't lend money to the separatists (Asha, Jon, Rickon). It lent money to the Iron Throne.

If, in some out of left field situation Asha (disgraced lady in exile), Jon (dead), or Rickon (5 years old), start up a rebellion against whoever, they are not going to be paying back Robert Baratheon's money - because they aren't claiming Robert Baratheon's throne. If the Iron Bank wants to support these imaginary rebellions as a tool to extract the money it is owed from King's Landing, that's one thing, but these rebellions aren't going to happen, and even if they were successful, wouldn't pay the Bank back for what Robert borrowed.

Ultimately, the North and the Iron Isles are peripheral to the might of the Iron Throne and can go their own way without doing much damage to the core of Westeros. Even if the secessionists succeeded, they will be taking away the poorest and least governable parts of the Seven Kingdoms.

It is either Stannis or the Targaryens, b/c they are attempting to replace Robert and assume his mantle. They are far more dangerous - and thus far more worthy of the Bank's support.

[Mad Monkey]

And if Stannis dies, the Iron bank still has a freeze on all private and lordly credit throughout Westeros, essentially crippling the various economies. They can force the hand of hoever sits on the IT through sheer atrition if they want, though bviously they'd rather see Stannis succeed and end this buisness.

Kevan Lannister suggests that if need be he could open up the old Casterly Rock vaults and pay off the royal debt though he would obviously prefer not to considering how much he has to spend protecting Tommen's throne from Stannis. Realistically, if it really came down to it I'm sure the Iron Throne could pay its bills especially if it extracted the money from Highgarden and Casterly Rock.

[Kronz]

This is not a helpful response but I have to know...does anyone else picture Tycho as one of those Trade Federation aliens from The Phantom Menace? I can't unsee and unhear it in my head.

[Yakman]

Kevan Lannister suggests that if need be he could open up the old Casterly Rock vaults and pay off the royal debt though he would obviously prefer not to considering how much he has to spend protecting Tommen's throne from Stannis. Realistically, if it really came down to it I'm sure the Iron Throne could pay its bills especially if it extracted the money from Highgarden and Casterly Rock.

The realm could pay its bills.... but Winter is Coming...

...and there's that little matter of the War of the Five Kings and now the Targaryen Invasion. The Crown has no money. Highgarden and Casterly Rock are paying to fight these wars already - who do you think finances the 50,000 men that Mace Tyrell put into the field? The Reach does it already.

Cersei literally cannot pay the Iron Bank unless she uses Lannister money. But that's the only cash reserve she has - and Euron is raiding up the Mander and Stannis is establishing himself on the Wall. It's not unreasonable for her to tell the Iron Bank off and make a deal with the Faith in these circumstances. Sometimes defaulting on debt makes sense.

[Jon of the Dead]

The Iron Bank can put Asha, Rickon, Jon or Moon Boy in the Iron Throne if it wants, they will put whoever wants to pay them. They have the resources, that's what I'm getting at. Let's say they support Rickon's claim as KitN and then, by right of conquest, beat the Lannisters, Tyrells and all the opposition and put Rickon in the IT. Who's going to protest when all the other claimants are dead? Rickon would sit the Iron Throne, and use all the money of Casterly Rock and Highgarden to pay the debts.

The point is, the Iron Bank don't give a flying fuck if someone has a debt directly to the IT or if someone's claim is limited to the Iron Islands or the North. If they have an agreement with Asha, Rickon or Jon that the corresponding debts will get paid, then they can put them in the Iron Throne with the help of all the sellsword companies they need. Let's not forget: Braavos is the greatest and most powerful of the Free Cities.

[Yakman]

The Iron Bank can put Asha, Rickon, Jon or Moon Boy in the Iron Throne if it wants, they will put whoever wants to pay them. They have the resources, that's what I'm getting at. Let's say they support Rickon's claim as KitN and then, by right of conquest, beat the Lannisters, Tyrells and all the opposition and put Rickon in the IT. Who's going to protest when all the other claimants are dead? Rickon would sit the Iron Throne, and use all the money of Casterly Rock and Highgarden to pay the debts.

The point is, the Iron Bank don't give a flying fuck if someone has a debt directly to the IT or if someone's claim is limited to the Iron Islands or the North. If they have an agreement with Asha, Rickon or Jon that the corresponding debts will get paid, then they can put them in the Iron Throne with the help of all the sellsword companies they need. Let's not forget: Braavos is the greatest and most powerful of the Free Cities.

The Iron Bank is strong, but it's not that strong.

Westeros is the size of South America. It has virtually unlimited resources, vast amounts of manpower, etc.. Braavos, for all it's fabled wealth is a couple of islands in a swamp. It's better organized, but it doesn't stand a candle to the sheer scale of the Seven Kingdoms.

Almost all of Westeros' wealth and population though are in the South. Particularly the Vale, the Reach, the Westerlands, and (formerly) the Trident. All areas that are currently loyal to Tommen Baratheon.

Asha is... a prisoner in a frozen forest about 2000 miles from some barren, brutish islands full of unruly and canonically stupid vikings who have rejected her leadership.

Rickon is... a five year old claimant to a ruined realm, famously described as "Leagues and leagues of leagues and leagues" whose military power destroyed itself in an orgy of murderous violence and... is about to do the same thing again.

Neither of these two pretenders has any claim to the Iron Throne nor desires it. Should their presumptive rebellions succeed, they will rule poor, backwards realms that not only cannot pay the Iron Bank but will care not a fig about Robert's debt.

In a generation Rickon will be old enough to lead an army - but that's years down the road. Even so, he won't have the power to challenge the South and take the Iron Throne.

This is why the Bank is behind Stannis. He wants the Iron Throne, has a claim to it, and has a chance at winning the whole thing - or at least making the Lannisters reconsider whether or not paying the Bank is worse than the prospect of being burned as offerings to the Fire God.

[Mad Monkey]

The Iron Bank can put Asha, Rickon, Jon or Moon Boy in the Iron Throne if it wants, they will put whoever wants to pay them. They have the resources, that's what I'm getting at. Let's say they support Rickon's claim as KitN and then, by right of conquest, beat the Lannisters, Tyrells and all the opposition and put Rickon in the IT. Who's going to protest when all the other claimants are dead? Rickon would sit the Iron Throne, and use all the money of Casterly Rock and Highgarden to pay the debts.

The point is, the Iron Bank don't give a flying fuck if someone has a debt directly to the IT or if someone's claim is limited to the Iron Islands or the North. If they have an agreement with Asha, Rickon or Jon that the corresponding debts will get paid, then they can put them in the Iron Throne with the help of all the sellsword companies they need. Let's not forget: Braavos is the greatest and most powerful of the Free Cities.

How much do you think the Iron Bank will want to spend on this then? In the real world, banks hire debt collection agencies mostly because they don't want to spend more to collect a debt than the debt is actually worth. Sure, the Iron Bank could bring the entire might of Braavos down upon Highgarden and Casterly Rock, annihilate Westeros and sit Asha Greyjoy or baby Rickon on the Iron Throne... and by the time they've finished, they've spent 3x what they're owed and are now in the unenviable position of trying to collect their debt from someone who can't possibly pay it. I can't imagine that's the ideal outcome for Tycho and the Iron Bank -- even if they could really win (and frankly, I'm not sure who would win a spending battle between Westeros and Braavos here) it wouldn't be easy and it wouldn't be quick. They could do it, sure, but it's a very, very last resort -- so last resort that it's not even worth considering.

[Jon of the Dead]

The Iron Bank is strong, but it's not that strong.

Westeros is the size of South America. It has virtually unlimited resources, vast amounts of manpower, etc.

Almost all of the wealth and population though are in the South. Particularly the Vale, the Reach, the Westerlands, and (formerly) the Trident.

Asha is... a prisoner in a frozen forest about 2000 miles from some barren, brutish islands full of unruly and canonically stupid vikings who have rejected her leadership.

Rickon is... a five year old claimant to a ruined realm, famously described as "Leagues and leagues of leagues and leagues" whose military power destroyed itself in an orgy of murderous violence and... is about to do the same thing again.

Neither of these two pretenders has any claim to the Iron Throne nor desires it. Should their presumptive rebellions succeed, they will rule poor, backwards realms that not only cannot pay the Iron Bank but will care not a fig about Robert's debt.

In a generation Rickon will be old enough to lead an army - but that's years down the road. Even so, he won't have the power to challenge the South and take the Iron Throne.

This is why the Bank is behind Stannis. He wants the Iron Throne, has a claim to it, and has a chance at winning the whole thing - or at least making the Lannisters reconsider whether or not paying the Bank is worse than the prospect of being burned as offerings to the Fire God.

I'll give you the thing about Asha, her current position is not ideal. But Rickon and Jon could have the full support of the North, the Wildlings (maybe) and maybe even some riverlords and the Vale. If that rebellion succeeds, the Iron Bank will recognize the power behind Rickon or Jon and could see them as possible candidates for the IT (if Jon or Rickon want it, of course). So, what if they don't have a claim for the IT? That didn't stop Renly. All I'm saying, and I don't see why it seems so unlikely, is that if Stannis dies then the Bank would benefit from funding another contender, such as Jon or Rickon should they prove worthy.

How much do you think the Iron Bank will want to spend on this then? In the real world, banks hire debt collection agencies mostly because they don't want to spend more to collect a debt than the debt is actually worth. Sure, the Iron Bank could bring the entire might of Braavos down upon Highgarden and Casterly Rock, annihilate Westeros and sit Asha Greyjoy or baby Rickon on the Iron Throne... and by the time they've finished, they've spent 3x what they're owed and are now in the unenviable position of trying to collect their debt from someone who can't possibly pay it. I can't imagine that's the ideal outcome for Tycho and the Iron Bank -- even if they could really win (and frankly, I'm not sure who would win a spending battle between Westeros and Braavos here) it wouldn't be easy and it wouldn't be quick. They could do it, sure, but it's a very, very last resort -- so last resort that it's not even worth considering.

I'd say it would be worth it if Braavos achieves major leverage or influence from whoever sits the IT. And I don't see how the Bank would have such a hard time getting their money back, just imagine the spoils of war that the Reach and the Westerlands would mean. Hell, only the coffers in Casterly Rock can pay off the initial debt. I think such an invasion pays itself.

[IRON BANK]

It would seem very hard to give money to a ruler and tell them once they get the throne they have to honor the old debts of the preivious ruler. This only would work on a person who was already in a desperate situation.

[Jon of the Dead]

It would seem very hard to give money to a ruler and tell them once they get the throne they have to honor the old debts of the preivious ruler. This only would work on a person who was already in a desperate situation.

Like Jon or Rickon. Plus they're honorable enough to honor those debts

[MasterJack]

Stannis IS the plan B, the plan A hope the Lannister to end the wars and finally start paying off the debt.