Catnapping: a PSA

[juanml82]

1. Why are you of the opinion that Tywin only thought to foster SR after Jon died? Are you suggesting that Tywin was totally unaware of the Baratheon-Arryn fostering alliance? Also, the bolded contradicts your position on this. If you believe that Tywin only considered fostering SR after Jon's death, and that there's no indication that Lysa would ally with the Baratheons or move against him, why make the offer to foster SR at all? The mere fact that he's making an offer to foster SR means that he's trying to pre-emptively neutralize the Vale as a threat.

2. I think you might be missing the larger point I'm making. I'm not claiming that Tywin believes Ned would go rogue and attack the Lannisters out of sheer hate or something. The issue is that Ned would never side with the Lannisters if any combination of Tully, Arryn and Baratheon were involved in a conflict. Ned is guaranteed to fight against his House should there be a conflict, and Stannis' movements indicate that there's to be a conflict.

3. It links to Ned in that it involves 2 Baratheons, of whom is Ned's BFF. But I have to ask-- what do you think the purpose of alliances are? Power blocs mean that others will stand with you in the event you are attacked, but it also means "the enemy of my friend is my enemy." So if one of these Houses appear to be positioning themselves to move against the Lannisters, then the likelihood is that the others are in on it too, and if not already in on it, will align as soon as conflict begins.

The reason Tywin doesn't lift a finger until the Catnapping is very simple: Robert is literally the only thing standing between 5 Houses going against his House (and it's not like Dorne would stand with him). He knows that some combination of these 5 Houses are cooking something up, and he's grossly outnumbered. Plain and simple. His response to the Catnap is to openly call his banners. This is the move he makes.

He needs a more subtle way to break up the blocs. Offering to foster SR is one case. That Gregor Riverlands campaign is another. I know that by the time Gregor gets out there, the Catnap has already occurred. But I'm saying the plan for that campaign was in place before Tywin knew of the arrest.

4. We need to address something major, here. You're answering these points as though Tywin was ignorant of the incest. This is kind of a major issue that influences whether or not he'd take Cersei's concerns seriously. Tywin would definitely know of the incest. If he hadn't figured it out already (and I really think he had), then the fact that Stannis suddenly left to raise an army on Dragonstone confirms it. Stannis is Mr. Rules. There is no way that Stannis would leave and raise an army unless A. it was at Robert's explicit request, which would mean Tywin is really fucked, or B. Stannis has reason to believe Robert's rule has been compromised.

I am quite sure Tywin has a pretty good idea about the incest, knows that the incest is why Stannis left, knows that his grandkids rule will be called into question, and that they and Cersei will be executed, that no one will be on his side once this comes to light, and therefore, whatever side-stepping language Cersei may have used in those reports, Tywin's knowledge of the incest is a pretty good indication he took the gist of her warning seriously. As though the incest itself and Stannis' departure weren't enough of a warning as it is.

5. The precision of an event timeline doesn't really mean much. News of events reaching various parties is what matters.

1) Walder Frey, who had no reason to be part of any conspiracy, knew that Stannis was going to foster SR at Jon Arryn's request. Since Tywin can't be granted permission to foster him while Jon Arryn wants him fostered elsewhere, it stands to reason that Tywin's proposal happened after Jon died. It can't work in any other fashion. Tywin can not tell the Hand of the King he's going to foster the Hand's son when the Hand of the King is planning to foster him somewhere else.

As to why fostering him, because he's the future Lord Paramount of the Vale. Raising Robert Arryn will mean that the Lord of the Eyre would look at Tywin Lannister as a father, would be friend to Kevan's younger children and the rest of the Lannister family and will become an ally of House Lannister in decades to come. That is incentive enough.

2 and 3) No. Here's the catch. The Tullys aren't involved. Jon Arryn is dead and whatever he conspired, Tywin never believed Lysa was continuing it. And regarding the Baratheons, Robert is not part of either conspiracy. Whatever Jon and Stannis are up to, Robert isn't involved. And he's not involved in the Renly-Tyrell plot either. So, with Robert, Lysa, Edmure and Jon Arryn out of the picture, why would Ned Stark join Renly or Stannis - two men Ned has no relation whatsoever - in a plot to make Margery Tyrell Queen instead of going along with Robert's proposal to make Sansa Stark a Queen? Why would Ned prefer Margery over Sansa? Even worse, the plot might require the death or the exile to the Wall of his BFF children!

This is something you need to answer satisfactorily if you want to support this part of your analysis. You can't just dodge the bullet here. Why would any outside observer believe the honorable Ned Stark would prefer Margery Tyrell over his own daughter and, worse, dishonor himself by removing his best friend's son's birthright?

4) Again, you need to prove Tywin Lannister knew about the incest. You can't just say it. There is nothing in the text even suggesting, let alone confirming, that Tywin knew about the incest before Stannis' letters. So, just like points 2-3, you need to prove this, and the burden is on you, not anyone else.

5) Well, I don't get it. The timeline means a lot. Things would have been entirely different if, let's say, Quathie appeared on Ned dreams informing him about the incest the day Ned arrived to King's Landing and Ned confronted Cersei about the incest before Catelyn even departed the city.

[Voice]

Cat pushed Ned into going to KL. War was not inevitable. But if it were, it would have been the Wot4K if Ned had stayed where he belonged, like he wanted to.

Once Stannis announced the twincest, Robert would have offed some golden heads.

Although, I can see Stannis waiting until after Robert's death to make such a proclamation, as happened, since he's been stuck in the throws of his "I should have been Lord of Storm's End" bitch-fit.

[butterbumps!]

1) Walder Frey, who had no reason to be part of any conspiracy, knew that Stannis was going to foster SR at Jon Arryn's request. Since Tywin can't be granted permission to foster him while Jon Arryn wants him fostered elsewhere, it stands to reason that Tywin's proposal happened after Jon died. It can't work in any other fashion. Tywin can not tell the Hand of the King he's going to foster the Hand's son when the Hand of the King is planning to foster him somewhere else.

As to why fostering him, because he's the future Lord Paramount of the Vale. Raising Robert Arryn will mean that the Lord of the Eyre would look at Tywin Lannister as a father, would be friend to Kevan's younger children and the rest of the Lannister family and will become an ally of House Lannister in decades to come. That is incentive enough.

2 and 3) No. Here's the catch. The Tullys aren't involved. Jon Arryn is dead and whatever he conspired, Tywin never believed Lysa was continuing it. And regarding the Baratheons, Robert is not part of either conspiracy. Whatever Jon and Stannis are up to, Robert isn't involved. And he's not involved in the Renly-Tyrell plot either. So, with Robert, Lysa, Edmure and Jon Arryn out of the picture, why would Ned Stark join Renly or Stannis - two men Ned has no relation whatsoever - in a plot to make Margery Tyrell Queen instead of going along with Robert's proposal to make Sansa Stark a Queen? Why would Ned prefer Margery over Sansa? Even worse, the plot might require the death or the exile to the Wall of his BFF children!

This is something you need to answer satisfactorily if you want to support this part of your analysis. You can't just dodge the bullet here. Why would any outside observer believe the honorable Ned Stark would prefer Margery Tyrell over his own daughter and, worse, dishonor himself by removing his best friend's son's birthright?

5) Again, you need to prove Tywin Lannister knew about the incest. You can't just say it. There is nothing in the text even suggesting, let alone confirming, that Tywin knew about the incest before Stannis' letters. So, just like points 2-3, you need to prove this, and the burden is on you, not anyone else.

6) Well, I don't get it. The timeline means a lot. Things would have been entirely different if, let's say, Quathie appeared on Ned dreams informing him about the incest the day Ned arrived to King's Landing and Ned confronted Cersei about the incest before Catelyn even departed the city.

1. It actually doesn't matter if Tywin made the offer before or after Jon Arryn's death. What does matter is that Tywin made an offer to foster SR, because Tywin doesn't make offers to foster kids simply to nurture good relations between Houses. For the record, though, the very passage you are looking at in thinking Tywin only made the offer after Jon Arryn's death because the Stannis one was public record, implies the opposite, actually. Frey didn't make the offer in front of Robert; he made it privately to Jon and Lysa. The Stannis fostering was clearly meant to be a secret; Robert has no idea of it on page. That fostering wasn't "announced" or made official the way the Tywin one was. Jon had to give Frey a good reason for rejecting the offer to foster SR without offending him, and told Frey that the boy was already meant to foster elsewhere. It's also noting that the Blackfish seemed unaware of the Stannis fostering, but knew of the Tywin offer. So yes, actually, given that the Stannis offer was never made official or brought to Robert's attention, Tywin most certainly could have made the offer prior to Arryn's death.

And the reason why Tywin would offer this you give in the bolded-- that Tywin will have the Lord of the Eyrie at his side-- doesn't make much sense as a free-standing motive to explain why Tywin would offer this after Arryn's death. After Jon Arryn dies, Jaime Lannister is appointed as Warden of the East. Which trumps Lord of the Eyrie. So the Lannisters are actually already in control of the Eyrie, at least in title.

Does Tywin really strike you as the sort of man who, without an ulterior motive, would seriously make an official offer to foster someone, purely to nurture relations between Houses? He had 15 years to make this type of offer to Ned, Doran, or Mace. He could have made the offer to Jon Arryn years before the timeframe of aGoT if building good relations was truly his motive. No, Tywin makes an offer to foster SR specifically because he knows that the Arryns could be a danger, and he's moving to guarantee that they do not become one.

2. Especially if you believe that Tywin only made the offer after Jon Arryn's death, the fact that Tywin made an offer to foster SR tells us, in pure, unmitigated terms, that Tywin did believe the Arryns could be a threat, because despite what you seem to believe about Tywin's MO as using soft power to nurture alliances, the only reason he'd actually make an offer is to secure himself a hostage to leverage good behavior with.

3. What don't you understand about the way alliances work? Why do you think people make political marriages in the first place? I don't understand why you keep trying to argue that Tywin wouldn't believe all these Houses would become his enemies in the event that some combination of them entered into a conflict with him. He doesn't literally need to think that everything he's hearing about must have been literally designed together between all of these Houses to see that if a conflict should emerge, he'll be up against 5 Houses.

4.

This is something you need to answer satisfactorily if you want to support this part of your analysis. You can't just dodge the bullet here. Why would any outside observer believe the honorable Ned Stark would prefer Margery Tyrell over his own daughter and, worse, dishonor himself by removing his best friend's son's birthright?

Is this a joke? Read that again carefully: "Why would any outside observer believe the honorable Ned Stark would prefer Margery Tyrell over his own daughter." Why would "honorable" Ned Stark seek the power grab of insisting his daughter be married to the crown prince at all?

And let's look at that second part: "Why would any outside observer believe the honorable Ned Stark would dishonor himself by removing his best friend's son's birthright?" You surely agree that Tywin read Stannis' departure to Dragonstone as a threat, yes? So let's think about this. Why would an outside observer, who happens to know that Robert's "son" isn't actually his son, believe that Mr. Rules Stannis Baratheon would start breaking rules by setting up to challenge his brother's "son's" birthright?

And let's think about this some more. If Stannis' departs to make a challenge to Robert's "son's" claim, it means he knows about the incest (because Stannis doesn't just break rules). If Stannis knows, Ned probably knows, or will know soon. Ned, who's loyal to Robert and also a rule-stickler, is exactly the sort of person to stand against Cersei's children and side with Stannis on this. And lo and behold, this is exactly what happens when Ned does figure it out.

Let's put the whole thing together, because all of these plots and moves that we know were independent and not part of a Grand Conspiracy, actually would look like a unified plan from Tywin's perspective:

Tywin knows, or at the very least, strongly suspects that Cersei's kids aren't Robert's. Tywin sees Stannis' move to Dragonstone as a challenge to his grandkid's claim, meaning, he realizes that Stannis knows and that others will know Cersei's kids are not Robert's and that she is guilty of treason (at least that this will be the suspicion and accusation made). Stark-Tully-Arryn-Baratheon will stand opposed to the Lannisters when this gets out. This isn't debatable. When word of the Marg-Cersei swap emerges, it would appear to Tywin that all these Houses actually were intended to make a move in the near future, and that they were planning to bring a really devastating defeat to House Lannister by shoring up the next most powerful army via a Tyrell alliance, and preventing them from becoming Tywin's ally in this. And there is no chance whatsoever that Tywin would find sympathy in Dorne. From where Tywin stands, it looks like his House is about to get Castamered by the time the Marg swap comes to light; that piece really paints a very full picture. And even before then, Tywin knows he's on really thin ice.

5. You said that this is all speculative on both sides! You cannot simultaneously accept that piecing together Tywin's mindset at all is speculative and then keep asking me for proof!

Tywin isn't a fool. If he didn't know for sure before Jon Arryn's death, then he'd know when Jon Arryn suddenly dies in Pycelle's care, and he'd most certainly deduce that suspicions over the incest are what inspired Stannis to leave KL to rally. If you want to maintain that Tywin has no idea of the incest, what do you think Tywin was thinking when Stannis suddenly leaves KL like that? Tell me what you think was going through Tywin's mind when Stannis, who is a notorious stickler for rules, suddenly leaves and begins rallying, thereby presenting a challenge to Tywin? How can you surmise anything other than Tywin realizing that Stannis knows/ suspects that Robert's rule has been compromised and is shoring up forces, but hasn't told Robert yet?

Also, you know, Joanna caught the two having sex when they were kids (technically, a servant did and brought it to her attention). Are you of the opinion that the twin's incest wasn't whispered about at the Rock, and/ or that Tywin would be oblivious? Do you suspect that Joanna never told Tywin that the twins were a bit too familiar with each other and might benefit from separation?

6. The timeline does matter, but it's not helping your case, and seems to be preventing you from putting together a bigger picture of what Tywin would have seen from his POV. We're not really in disagreement over the timeline, and a very precise timeline is speculative anyway. We can know the broad strokes of the timeline and make guesses here and there for more precision, but the timeline you were focusing on doesn't contradict me, or especially help your argument.

[corbon]

Butterbumps, you are doing an outstanding job.

[E-Ro]

Butterbumps, you are doing an outstanding job.

Yeah, I agree. phantasmagorical is the word I would use. The lemoncake is doing a phantasmagorical job.

[LordStoneheart]

Evidence for the Lannisters being involved:
Jaime didn't go hunting. This is not good evidence, there were many people who wouldn't have been involved in the hunting. Bran is a small child, a woman could just as easily push him out of a window.

Just had to stop and say this is rather humorous. It's basically saying Catelyn was still wrong when she was 100% right.

My favorite thread, btw. I link it to people at any possible chance. :D

[The Poster Who Was Promisd]

If I were to accuse you of a serious crime, and you are proven innocent of that crime, then it makes me look like a discredited jackass with a petty bone to pick against you. Forcing a trial in front of Robert like that, with Tyrion knowing he's innocent and will be exonerated, will create an unbridgeable divide between Ned and Robert. They wouldn't be "finished" because Cat arrested him illegally. They'd be "finished" because they'd have accused him of a crime and been wrong about it.

<snip>

If didn't capture Tyrion, but word of her exposure came back to KL, she could have been "invited" to court and informally questioned by Cersei and Robert about what she was up to incognito.

I see. So she catnapped Tyrion to make it less likely that she would be called to KL to explain herself. Got it ...

I think I'm done here. There's no penetrating armor this thick.

ETA: I must say I don't really understand your motivation here. Cat is clearly a tragic figure, and like all tragic figures she has her fatal flaw. What's interesting in Martin is that so often the fatal flaw is a virtue. Cat is undone by her desire to protect/avenge her children, Robb by his love for Jeyne, Ned by his desire to prevent the murder of innocents ("Promise me, Ned"). And yet it is so important to you that the Catnap not be a mistake that you will twist evidence around until it signifies the exact opposite of the apparent meaning - and then your hallelujah chorus shows up to congratulate you on a job well done. I don't get it.

[butterbumps!]

I see. So she catnapped Tyrion to make it less likely that she would be called to KL to explain herself. Got it ...

I think I'm done here. There's no penetrating armor this thick.

ETA: I must say I don't really understand your motivation here. Cat is clearly a tragic figure, and like all tragic figures she has her fatal flaw. What's interesting in Martin is that so often the fatal flaw is a virtue. Cat is undone by her desire to protect/avenge her children, Robb by his love for Jeyne, Ned by his desire to prevent the murder of innocents ("Promise me, Ned"). And yet it is so important to you that the Catnap not be a mistake that you will twist evidence around until it signifies the exact opposite of the apparent meaning - and then your hallelujah chorus shows up to congratulate you on a job well done. I don't get it.

You're being really disingenuous. I very explicitly pointed out that this wasn't what she was thinking, and that I was offering an alternative ramification for the discussion.

I didn't say the Catnap wasn't a "mistake," and absent of knowing all the behind the scenes plays like we do, Cat is torn up over her actions, believing it was a terrible mistake. Echoing what I said in the OP, the Catnap was a "mistake" in that Tyrion was actually innocent, as well as in how it played out once they got to the Eyrie. It did not work out, obviously.

The motivation for the thread was not to declare that the Catnap was objectively good or correct; I even wrote that it was "objectively wrong" in the OP, for heaven's sake. Rather, it's a response to the frequent vitriolic condemnations of Cat over this act, by taking a more measured look at the event through an organized compilation of the arguments against it. There was/ is a strong tendency to accuse Cat of more harm than she was truly responsible for, as well as to portray her as irrational and stupid for this act. As per what I wrote in the OP, the point is to show that the decision to Catnap was not a stupid or irrational choice for her to make from her POV, even though it ultimately became a grave mistake. And further, I'm of the opinion that arresting Tyrion on its own (without the Eyrie detour) could have been played to the Stark advantage; it's not truly the Catnap, but rather what followed that made this event so tragic.

Please stop accusing me of "twisting evidence." That isn't an argument against what I've written.

Your reply provokes further questioning. Was *Catelyn* being set up as the scapegoat? We'll eventually learn that Lysa hated her sister. Maybe she thought Tyrion's death was the means to bring her down. If so, it's just another layer of tragedy. Catelyn was a mostly good and kind person, surrounded by people who wanted to destroy her.

Even worse, death didn't bring an end to her suffering.

I think what Ygritte wrote plays into this a bit. It's a cruel twist for someone whose words are "Family, Duty, Honor." Logistically, I can't imagine that LF and Lysa believed that Cat would show up at the Eyrie with Tyrion (I think LF's dagger lie was a spur of the moment "cover my ass"/ opportunity he grasped), but I do think LF could have anticipated Cat showing up there for answers, given the letter he had Lysa send.

[juanml82]

1. It actually doesn't matter if Tywin made the offer before or after Jon Arryn's death. What does matter is that Tywin made an offer to foster SR, because Tywin doesn't make offers to foster kids simply to nurture good relations between Houses. For the record, though, the very passage you are looking at in thinking Tywin only made the offer after Jon Arryn's death because the Stannis one was public record, implies the opposite, actually. Frey didn't make the offer in front of Robert; he made it privately to Jon and Lysa. The Stannis fostering was clearly meant to be a secret; Robert has no idea of it on page. That fostering wasn't "announced" or made official the way the Tywin one was. Jon had to give Frey a good reason for rejecting the offer to foster SR without offending him, and told Frey that the boy was already meant to foster elsewhere. It's also noting that the Blackfish seemed unaware of the Stannis fostering, but knew of the Tywin offer. So yes, actually, given that the Stannis offer was never made official or brought to Robert's attention, Tywin most certainly could have made the offer prior to Arryn's death.

And the reason why Tywin would offer this you give in the bolded-- that Tywin will have the Lord of the Eyrie at his side-- doesn't make much sense as a free-standing motive to explain why Tywin would offer this after Arryn's death. After Jon Arryn dies, Jaime Lannister is appointed as Warden of the East. Which trumps Lord of the Eyrie. So the Lannisters are actually already in control of the Eyrie, at least in title.

Does Tywin really strike you as the sort of man who, without an ulterior motive, would seriously make an official offer to foster someone, purely to nurture relations between Houses? He had 15 years to make this type of offer to Ned, Doran, or Mace. He could have made the offer to Jon Arryn years before the timeframe of aGoT if building good relations was truly his motive. No, Tywin makes an offer to foster SR specifically because he knows that the Arryns could be a danger, and he's moving to guarantee that they do not become one.

2. Especially if you believe that Tywin only made the offer after Jon Arryn's death, the fact that Tywin made an offer to foster SR tells us, in pure, unmitigated terms, that Tywin did believe the Arryns could be a threat, because despite what you seem to believe about Tywin's MO as using soft power to nurture alliances, the only reason he'd actually make an offer is to secure himself a hostage to leverage good behavior with.

3. What don't you understand about the way alliances work? Why do you think people make political marriages in the first place? I don't understand why you keep trying to argue that Tywin wouldn't believe all these Houses would become his enemies in the event that some combination of them entered into a conflict with him. He doesn't literally need to think that everything he's hearing about must have been literally designed together between all of these Houses to see that if a conflict should emerge, he'll be up against 5 Houses.

4.

Is this a joke? Read that again carefully: "Why would any outside observer believe the honorable Ned Stark would prefer Margery Tyrell over his own daughter." Why would "honorable" Ned Stark seek the power grab of insisting his daughter be married to the crown prince at all?

And let's look at that second part: "Why would any outside observer believe the honorable Ned Stark would dishonor himself by removing his best friend's son's birthright?" You surely agree that Tywin read Stannis' departure to Dragonstone as a threat, yes? So let's think about this. Why would an outside observer, who happens to know that Robert's "son" isn't actually his son, believe that Mr. Rules Stannis Baratheon would start breaking rules by setting up to challenge his brother's "son's" birthright?

And let's think about this some more. If Stannis' departs to make a challenge to Robert's "son's" claim, it means he knows about the incest (because Stannis doesn't just break rules). If Stannis knows, Ned probably knows, or will know soon. Ned, who's loyal to Robert and also a rule-stickler, is exactly the sort of person to stand against Cersei's children and side with Stannis on this. And lo and behold, this is exactly what happens when Ned does figure it out.

Let's put the whole thing together, because all of these plots and moves that we know were independent and not part of a Grand Conspiracy, actually would look like a unified plan from Tywin's perspective:

Tywin knows, or at the very least, strongly suspects that Cersei's kids aren't Robert's. Tywin sees Stannis' move to Dragonstone as a challenge to his grandkid's claim, meaning, he realizes that Stannis knows and that others will know Cersei's kids are not Robert's and that she is guilty of treason (at least that this will be the suspicion and accusation made). Stark-Tully-Arryn-Baratheon will stand opposed to the Lannisters when this gets out. This isn't debatable. When word of the Marg-Cersei swap emerges, it would appear to Tywin that all these Houses actually were intended to make a move in the near future, and that they were planning to bring a really devastating defeat to House Lannister by shoring up the next most powerful army via a Tyrell alliance, and preventing them from becoming Tywin's ally in this. And there is no chance whatsoever that Tywin would find sympathy in Dorne. From where Tywin stands, it looks like his House is about to get Castamered by the time the Marg swap comes to light; that piece really paints a very full picture. And even before then, Tywin knows he's on really thin ice.

5. You said that this is all speculative on both sides! You cannot simultaneously accept that piecing together Tywin's mindset at all is speculative and then keep asking me for proof!

Tywin isn't a fool. If he didn't know for sure before Jon Arryn's death, then he'd know when Jon Arryn suddenly dies in Pycelle's care, and he'd most certainly deduce that suspicions over the incest are what inspired Stannis to leave KL to rally. If you want to maintain that Tywin has no idea of the incest, what do you think Tywin was thinking when Stannis suddenly leaves KL like that? Tell me what you think was going through Tywin's mind when Stannis, who is a notorious stickler for rules, suddenly leaves and begins rallying, thereby presenting a challenge to Tywin? How can you surmise anything other than Tywin realizing that Stannis knows/ suspects that Robert's rule has been compromised and is shoring up forces, but hasn't told Robert yet?

Also, you know, Joanna caught the two having sex when they were kids (technically, a servant did and brought it to her attention). Are you of the opinion that the twin's incest wasn't whispered about at the Rock, and/ or that Tywin would be oblivious? Do you suspect that Joanna never told Tywin that the twins were a bit too familiar with each other and might benefit from separation?

6. The timeline does matter, but it's not helping your case, and seems to be preventing you from putting together a bigger picture of what Tywin would have seen from his POV. We're not really in disagreement over the timeline, and a very precise timeline is speculative anyway. We can know the broad strokes of the timeline and make guesses here and there for more precision, but the timeline you were focusing on doesn't contradict me, or especially help your argument.

1) Jon Arryn is the Hand of the King. He doesn't want to foster SR with Tywin. If Tywin makes the offer when Jon is alive, Jon simply says "no" and the subject is dropped.

As for the rest, contrived assumptions are contrived assumptions. There is a simple reason why Tywin would want to foster SR. We know Doran would never foster his children with Tywin, we know Ned didn't foster any of his children and we simply don't know what kind of deals Tywin and Mace were negotiating, if any, before AGOT. Even more, given how fast Lysa left KL, I suspect the fostering was Cersei's idea, not Tywin. There is no point in getting to foster someone when his mother had taken him away.

The Warden of the East is a military position. Basically, it means that, in times of war, Jaime Lannister would be in charge of the Vale armies as well as any other army the King wishes to assign to the Western theater of operations, whatever that is. In peacetime, it means nothing. As we see in the novels, Jaime never takes charge of the Vale. And it stands to reason that the wardenship would default back to the Lord of the Eyre, be it SR or HtH, once the Lord becomes of age. Which actually ends up happening even before that, as Lysa bargains the return of the title in exchange for marrying LF.

2) Kindly point to anywhere in the text where Tywin Lannister suspects Lysa is continuing Jon and Stannis conspiracy, whatever Tywin believes that is.

3) We know that after the Catnapping, when Tywin calls his banners against the Riverlands, neither Robb nor Lysa call their banners in support of Hoster Tully. Robb only calls his banners when Ned is arrested. That's how alliances actually work, instead of how they are supposed to go. But I'll go further: an alliance doesn't mean everyone dances at Renly's tune. Tyrion comments how Sansa's betrothal was one of Robert's few good ideas. Guess why.

Basically, if Renly is hatching a plot and Robert maneuvers in such a way that Renly's plot turns to be against Ned Stark's interests, he's driving (unknowingly) a wedge between Ned and Renly - who, again, barely know each other. Ned's friendship is with Robert Baratheon, not with his brothers.

4) You know, I could claim that Littlefinger is a secret Targ and his plan is to pave the way for Daenerys. And I could say "Oh, it's speculation, don't bother me". But I would need to support that from something from the actual novels, otherwise, I'm just making things up.

All through the novels, every Lannister we find acts in the belief that Tywin Lannister ignores the incest. Kevan - Tywin's right hand - goes as far as to tell Cersei he isn't blind as Tywin.

Now, suddenly Tywin knew about it all along? Or he knew that Cersei's children weren't Robert? This isn't even crackpot territory. LF paving the way for Daenerys is crackpot. This is completely unsupported. And you make a "isn't debatable" assumption based on this.

Also, regarding Stannis, none knows what he's doing at Dragonstone during AGOT, specially before the start of hostilities. As I said, Tywin doesn't play with the fog of war cheat turned on. Even more, even if he was a godlike character able to know more than Varys, Stannis was not gathering armies during AGOT. He only calls his banners and sends Davos after Robert's death. More visibly, he doesn't captures ships at the Dragonstone until that point. The Master of Ships interfering with commercial traffic to the realm's capital would be huge news, a massive issue and a declaration of war on Stannis' part.

5) The timeline shows that Tywin Lannister had, at most, about ten days between the first possible time where he could deduce Ned was an enemy and news of the Catnapping. So much for Tywin's long planned preemptive war against the Tullys.

Butterbumps: Cat started the War of the Five Kings. Deal with it. Or complain to GRRM.

[LordStoneheart]

3) We know that after the Catnapping, when Tywin calls his banners against the Riverlands, neither Robb nor Lysa call their banners in support of Hoster Tully. Robb only calls his banners when Ned is arrested.

Butterbumps: Cat started the War of the Five Kings. Deal with it. Or complain to GRRM.

Your answer lies in the top sentence, and shows why the second is just plain wrong.

The foundation for this war was started with Jaime and Cersei. Stannis and Jon's investigation, and LF and Lysa's murder of Jon guaranteed it was going to happen. You're right on one account; Robb didn't call the banners until Ned is arrested, something that is completely separate from the arrest of Tyrion. Had Cat never done it, Ned would have still investigated Jon's death and still would have went to Cersei with the truth. He still would've been arrested and still would've been killed by Joffrey. That's when the actual "War of the Five Kings" starts with open declarations of war and sides.

[butterbumps!]

snip

I'll go through these point by point if it's truly required after this post, but it might be more useful to just show you the big picture, because that's really being lost here.

Let's say that Tywin is completely ignorant of the incest (I don't think he is, but I'm rolling with it for argument's sake). The Lannisters, including Tywin, know, in no uncertain terms, that they are royally fucked.

Do you realize that the Lannisters know they are being blamed for Jon Arryn's untimely death? Even if Tywin does not suspect the incest, he is fully aware of the fact that Jon Arryn died mysteriously, that Pycelle is the one who cared for him, and that Cersei is the one Lysa is blaming for it. Meaning, they are going to have to answer for this at some point. And further, we are told explicitly that the reason Tywin offered to foster SR is precisely because he believed the Vale would be a threat.

Look at this passage, moments before Bran falls, just after Ned agrees to become Hand:

“Don’t play the fool. Stannis and Renly are one thing, and Eddard Stark is quite another. Robert will listen to Stark. Damn them both. I should have insisted that he name you, but I was certain Stark would refuse him.”

“We ought to count ourselves fortunate,” the man said. “The king might as easily have named one of his brothers, or even Littlefinger, gods help us. Give me honorable enemies rather than ambitious ones, and I’ll sleep more easily by night.” They were talking about Father, Bran realized. He wanted to hear more. A few more feet … but they would see him if he swung out in front of the window.

“We will have to watch him carefully,” the woman said.

“I would sooner watch you,” the man said. He sounded bored. “Come back here.”

“Lord Eddard has never taken any interest in anything that happened south of the Neck,” the woman said. “Never. I tell you, he means to move against us. Why else would he leave the seat of his power?”

“A hundred reasons. Duty. Honor. He yearns to write his name large across the book of history, to get away from his wife, or both. Perhaps he just wants to be warm for once in his life.”

“His wife is Lady Arryn’s sister. It’s a wonder Lysa was not here to greet us with her accusations.” Bran looked down. There was a narrow ledge beneath the window, only a few inches wide. He tried to lower himself toward it. Too far. He would never reach.

“You fret too much. Lysa Arryn is a frightened cow.”

“That frightened cow shared Jon Arryn’s bed.”

“If she knew anything, she would have gone to Robert before she fled King’s Landing.”

“When he had already agreed to foster that weakling son of hers at Casterly Rock? I think not. She knew the boy’s life would be hostage to her silence. She may grow bolder now that he’s safe atop the Eyrie.”

“Mothers.” The man made the word sound like a curse. “I think birthing does something to your minds. You are all mad.” He laughed. It was a bitter sound. “Let Lady Arryn grow as bold as she likes. Whatever she knows, whatever she thinks she knows, she has no proof.” He paused a moment. “Or does she?”

“Do you think the king will require proof?” the woman said. “I tell you, he loves me not.”

The entire passage is crucial, but the bolded tells you, in crystal clear terms, that Tywin does, in fact, believe that the Vale is going to be a threat, and made the offer to Robert publicly so that it could not be refused, as Tywin needed an Arryn hostage.

Tywin made the fostering offer to Robert precisely so that it could not be refused. It isn't clear whether Tywin got wind of the Stannis-Arryn fostering prior to Jon's death or not, and it doesn't really matter; it's not like Jon's death would have voided an official fostering contract with Stannis; Jon is the one who died, not Stannis, so if that was ever official, it's not like it would have suddenly disappeared. What does matter is that Tywin made this offer to Robert so that it became official and could not be refused because he knew that the Vale would be a threat he had to secure.

This is still very early, but what the Lannisters know is that they are being blamed for Jon Arryn's death. This is reason enough to believe that retribution is coming. It becomes even more alarming the moment Ned accepts the Hand position; this is the man Robert allegedly does listen to, as well as a foster son of Jon Arryn's, who, I remind you, was recently murdered by what's being whispered as the Lannisters' doing.

Cersei sees Ned's accepting the position as a very bad sign, because it doesn't follow from Ned's character to accept without something else at play. It looks very much like Ned accepted in order to sort out the Jon Arryn mystery. Lo and behold, she's actually right here. Ned accepts when Lysa's letter comes implicating Cersei, fearing for Robert's life. So it looks like Ned's coming south in order to set things straight.

Imagine what this looks like now that Lysa's run off with what Tywin hoped would be insurance for good behavior, and now Stannis runs off similarly behind Dragonstone doing god knows what. Even if Tywin is really blind and ignorant of the incest that appears to have been the cause of his murder, it looks abundantly clear that the players are moving against his House, if not for incest directly, than due to the fact that Lysa is blaming Cersei for murder. And, need I remind you, Jon Arryn is directly connected through marriage to the Tullys, and from Tully to the Starks.

The silence from Dragonstone and the Vale does not play in Tywin's favor here, especially when Lysa goes in defiance of Robert's command to have SR foster at the Rock. It's especially dangerous with Ned as Robert's Hand, because in the event that he does find something incriminating (whatever it is that inspired Lysa and Stannis to leave), Robert will actually listen to him about it (so they think).

The silence looks even more devastating when the Marg thing comes about. The period of silence now reads that whatever Stannis and Lysa know/ believe, they were waiting to maximize support to take out Casterly Rock root and stem, and that it now extends to the second most powerful army in the realm. This little swap means that the Tyrells cannot be made into allies by Tywin, and that in fact, it would seem they'll be used against him, and the final crushing blow against the Lannisters.

[The Poster Who Was Promisd]

Yeah, I agree. phantasmagorical is the word I would use. The lemoncake is doing a phantasmagorical job.

Last post, I promise - I just couldn't leave without noting how unintentionally perfect this comment is. It really sums up the whole thread, IMO.

Cheers.

[butterbumps!]

Last post, I promise - I just couldn't leave without noting how unintentionally perfect this comment is. It really sums up the whole thread, IMO.

Cheers.

I have to assume E Ro looked up "fantastic" with a thesaurus, without realizing the connotation wasn't the same.

I'm not really sure what you've been trying to accomplish here other than to say how much you disagree with the thread (and not only that, but how stupid and deluded it is), while not even articulating what it is you actually disagree with. And per your previous post, it looks like you didn't even truly understand what I was arguing, or even read the last paragraph of the OP, which is strange considering that you came in here give such a "thorough takedown" of it. When invited to explain the core source of your disagreement, you got passive-aggressive, evasive, and said you were withdrawing, essentially, because the Cat union was impenetrable (as though delusion, rather than actual argument is the reason I haven't responded to your points in agreement or something). If delusion exists, I'm not really all that sure it's from my end.

[Chebyshov]

The motivation for the thread was not to declare that the Catnap was objectively good or correct; I even wrote that it was "objectively wrong" in the OP, for heaven's sake. Rather, it's a response to the frequent vitriolic condemnations of Cat over this act, by taking a more measured look at the event through an organized compilation of the arguments against it. There was/ is a strong tendency to accuse Cat of more harm than she was truly responsible for, as well as to portray her as irrational and stupid for this act. As per what I wrote in the OP, the point is to show that the decision to Catnap was not a stupid or irrational choice for her to make from her POV, even though it ultimately became a grave mistake. And further, I'm of the opinion that arresting Tyrion on its own (without the Eyrie detour) could have been played to the Stark advantage; it's not truly the Catnap, but rather what followed that made this event so tragic.

I think this is the crux of it, and it's well-supported. Did the Catnap help matters? Of course not. But as others have pointed out, war was coming either way, and this was the best decision for Cat to make given the information with which she had been presented. Poor outcome, but reasonable decision.

Your answer lies in the top sentence, and shows why the second is just plain wrong.

The foundation for this war was started with Jaime and Cersei. Stannis and Jon's investigation, and LF and Lysa's murder of Jon guaranteed it was going to happen. You're right on one account; Robb didn't call the banners until Ned is arrested, something that is completely separate from the arrest of Tyrion. Had Cat never done it, Ned would have still investigated Jon's death and still would have went to Cersei with the truth. He still would've been arrested and still would've been killed by Joffrey. That's when the actual "War of the Five Kings" starts with open declarations of war and sides.

:agree:

[E-Ro]

I have to assume E Ro looked up "fantastic" with a thesaurus, without realizing the connotation wasn't the same.

Hey now, I did that for you brah brah! Godamnit I tried my darndest to make you happy here. BUT ITS NEVER ENOUGH

[l3ol3o]

The way I see it is Cat took the Stark/Lannister conflict from a cold war to a hot war. It was bound to happen yet Cat was the one who provided the spark.

Others have made WW1 analogies with the Franz Ferdinand comparison. That was the moment that brought tensions into war just like Cat taking Tyrion.

And most people believe WW1 started with the assassination of Franz Ferdinand. It's the same with Cat IMO. She provided that spark that made Tywin call his banners and raid the Riverlands. This started a chain reaction that lead to full scale war.

I don't think it's fair to think Cat is completely responsible for the war yet she is completely responsible for bring the war from a cold war to a hot war. If she didn't do it someone else likely would have yet she DID do it and just as Gavrilo Princips assassination of Franz Ferdinand kicked of WW1, Cats kidnapping kicked off the Stark/Lannister war and eventually the WOT5K

TLDR:

Cat took a cold war into a hot war.

[complexphoenix]

I agree with your analysis wholly, butterbumps, except for the idea that Tywin knew about the incest. I really think he had no idea. Jaime recalls that after Joanna's maid caught them playing, Joanna moved Jaime's bedchamber as far away from Cersei's as possible, posted a guard on Cersei's door at night, and warned the twins that she would tell Tywin if they ever did it again. A few months later she died giving birth to Tyrion, so I don't believe she ever told Tywin. Also, she sent the maid away, apparently to ensure that the matter was kept firmly hushed. Recall that rumors of Ashara Dayne being Jon's mother circulated among the servants of Winterfell until Ned punished somebody for it, and then stopped? It is possible for a Lord or Lady to arrest a castle's gossip mill with a sharp lesson or two.

More broadly, Tywin has a pattern of not seeing his children for what they truly are, but rather for what he expects them to be. He treats them as pieces on his gameboard and always assumes that they will do as he tells them and accept what he wants for them until he is brazenly confronted with the fact that they are separate human beings with their own wants. Tywin is genuinely bewildered when Tyrion doesn't consummate his marriage to Sansa, he is caught completely off guard when Jaime refuses to leave the Kingsguard, and he doesn't realize that Tyrion is about to kill him even when the business end of the crossbow is pointed straight at his heart. Given this pattern, why would he ever suspect Cersei of cheating on Robert, given how objectively stupid and risky it would be for her and her children? Making her a queen and her son a king was all he ever wanted for her, and he assumes that she is on the same page with him on it. It would never occur to him that she has other priorities.

Another piece of evidence that Tywin has no clue comes in the scene when Jaime returns to KL and sees his father for the first time since his capture. Tywin talks of his plans to marry off both Cersei and Jaime in a tone that indicates no suspicion whatsoever that Jaime would have a problem with this. If Tywin knew that the twins were lovers, surely he would have realized that Jaime would object to Cersei remarrying?

Given the strength of his blinders where his children are concerned, I don't think anything short of catching them in the act would ever convince him that they were committing incest. He wrote off Stannis' letter as an obvious self-serving libel and has operated constantly on the assumption that Cersei's children are Robert's and that Jaime and Cersei love each other no more than is normal for a pair of twins. Kevan figures it out because he is a bit more detached from the situation. Jaime and Cersei are not his children, and he is not by nature ambitious, so he could look at the twins' love for each other and the golden heads of Cersei's children and Stannis' letter with clear eyes ans see the truth. Tywin never could.

With all that said, it's not necessary for Tywin to know about the incest for your other suppositions in this thread to work. Tywin surely knew that Robert did not love Cersei and was not particularly attached to the children she'd borne him, so he knew that his daughter and her children were potentially vulnerable to intrigue and removal. He knew that Robert had developed a general dislike of House Lannister. He knew that the crown owed him an obscene amount of money, which Robert might be tempted to find an excuse to default on. He surely had plenty of informers at court, so he may well have gotten wind that Stannis and Jon Arryn were up to something fishy and that Lysa suspected his family of murdering her husband. All this adds up to more than enough cause to be very worried and to want SR as a hostage. When Cat kidnapped Tyrion, he was already very primed for conflict. True to his usual MO, he reacted to the Catnapping with a show of strength, to remind everyone that he was not a man to be messed with.

[LordStoneheart]

Funny, I was on a bike ride earlier and thought of the same thing, Gavrilo Princip.

She may have made the conflict go out in the open since up to that point it had been a shadowy, whispers, letters, "game" but that's hardly "starting" the war.

So to those that think she single handedly "started" the way (looking at you, Jaun) I ask:

Would the war have started if she did not? And was peace possible after the Catnap, but before Eddard goes to Cersei?

[butterbumps!]

I agree with your analysis wholly, butterbumps, except for the idea that Tywin knew about the incest. I really think he had no idea. Jaime recalls that after Joanna's maid caught them playing, Joanna moved Jaime's bedchamber as far away from Cersei's as possible, posted a guard on Cersei's door at night, and warned the twins that she would tell Tywin if they ever did it again. A few months later she died giving birth to Tyrion, so I don't believe she ever told Tywin. Also, she sent the maid away, apparently to ensure that the matter was kept firmly hushed. Recall that rumors of Ashara Dayne being Jon's mother circulated among the servants of Winterfell until Ned punished somebody for it, and then stopped? It is possible for a Lord or Lady to arrest a castle's gossip mill with a sharp lesson or two.

More broadly, Tywin has a pattern of not seeing his children for what they truly are, but rather for what he expects them to be. He treats them as pieces on his gameboard and always assumes that they will do as he tells them and accept what he wants for them until he is brazenly confronted with the fact that they are separate human beings with their own wants. Tywin is genuinely bewildered when Tyrion doesn't consummate his marriage to Sansa, he is caught completely off guard when Jaime refuses to leave the Kingsguard, and he doesn't realize that Tyrion is about to kill him even when the business end of the crossbow is pointed straight at his heart. Given this pattern, why would he ever suspect Cersei of cheating on Robert, given how objectively stupid and risky it would be for her and her children? Making her a queen and her son a king was all he ever wanted for her, and he assumes that she is on the same page with him on it. It would never occur to him that she has other priorities.

Another piece of evidence that Tywin has no clue comes in the scene when Jaime returns to KL and sees his father for the first time since his capture. Tywin talks of his plans to marry off both Cersei and Jaime in a tone that indicates no suspicion whatsoever that Jaime would have a problem with this. If Tywin knew that the twins were lovers, surely he would have realized that Jaime would object to Cersei remarrying?

Given the strength of his blinders where his children are concerned, I don't think anything short of catching them fucking would ever convince him that they were committing incest. He wrote off Stannis' letter as an obvious self-serving libel and has operated constantly on the assumption that Cersei's children are Robert's and that Jaime and Cersei love each other no more than is normal for a pair of twins. Kevan figures it out because he is a bit more detached from the situation. Jaime and Cersei are not his children, and he is not by nature ambitious, so he could look at the twins' love for each other and the golden heads of Cersei's children and Stannis' letter and put it together. Tywin never could.

With all that said, it's not necessary for Tywin to know about the incest for your other suppositions in this thread to work. Tywin surely knew that Robert did not love Cersei and was not particularly attached to the children she'd borne him, so he knew that his daughter and her children were potentially vulnerable to intrigue and removal. He knew that Robert had developed a general dislike of House Lannister. He knew that the crown owed him an obscene amount of money, which Robert might be tempted to find an excuse to default on. He surely had plenty of informers at court, so he may well have gotten wind that Stannis and Jon Arryn were up to something fishy and that Lysa suspected his family of murdering her husband. All this adds up to more than enough cause to be very worried and to want SR as a hostage. When Cat kidnapped Tyrion, he was already very primed for conflict. True to his usual MO, he reacted to the Catnapping with a show of strength, to remind everyone that he was not a man to be messed with.

I actually agree with your analysis on this. I do agree that Tywin was less "perceptive" about things when it comes to his family, though, it might be more accurate for me to say that I think it's more like denial than outright ignorance.

With that said, though, I strongly believe that whispers of incest reached Tywin (can something that juicy really remain fully contained), and that even if he refused to accept it could be true, he'd at least knows the rumor exists. When Lysa begins accusing Cersei of having murdered Arryn (and with faithful Pycelle overseeing the deathbed), I really think Tywin would have deduced that incest-- at least in terms of accusation, if not necessarily believing the truth of it-- was behind the affair. Stannis' flight to Dragonstone and Lysa's to the Eyrie can be easily explained as a reaction to Jon Arryn's murder, but Jon's murder itself-- and why Lysa would believe the Lannisters are behind it-- would surely raise flags for Tywin.

But yea, even if Tywin was completely ignorant of the incest entirely, he would have seen a devastating threat looming over his House; he'd be insane to go to war solely for the Catnap, given his awareness of how monstrous this threat appeared. And he's not the sort of man who'd sit at the Rock making lace doilies while all these Houses appeared to be priming themselves to strike. This is why I think the plan for the Riverlands campaign preceded the Catnap, though the execution of it is shown after it happens. He badly needed to remove Ned (the person he believe Robert would actually listen to once a strong enough case against the Lannisters could be brought before him), which was the major goal of that campaign. The adjacent goal was to get the Riverlands neutralized (as in, Jon Arryn's wife's ancestral space, and the very territory Tywin would need to cross to eventually lead his army to KL and fight Stannis). His banners being called is really the direct response to the Catnap, I believe.

[SeanF]

My own gut feeling is that Tywin sort-of knew about the incest, but shut his eyes to it.