Varys has something else up his sleeve

[Queen‍‍‍‍‍‍ Alysanne‍‍™]

Indeed, and this is my point exactly. People on these boards are sceptical of Aegon, on they have many questions that go unanswered, which lead them to believe that he is a fake. For example why wasn't he raised with Viserys and Daenerys? Why did they let Viserys think he was the heir? Why did they let Daenerys think she was the only Targaryen left? The questions have no end. But what I'm saying is that posters on these boards haven't come to some special realization, and I'm very reluctant to think that they have outwitted Varys (the way GRRM has written him). Every single character in the books, Dany included, will be sceptical of Aegon, and Varys must have anticipated this.

Varys is no idiot, he knows that when Aegon asks Dany's hand in marriage, she's not just going to say yes. He also knows that the infamously cautious Doran Martell will think of Aegon as a cruel joke, rather than hail the arrival of his nephew. That's why I'm absolutely convinced that not everything about Aegon has been revealed by the end of Dance.

Is the boy really Rhaegar's son? I don't know, I really don't. But be that as it may, there is a boy that looks like Rhaegar, who claims to be his son, who is calling himself Aegon Targaryen, who has landed in Westeros, and that's powerful. But there's more to it that Varys hasn't yet revealed, and I think there must be other revelations that will authenticate his identity to Dany.

He may end up being the real Aegon

[ejhawman]

Very enlightening thread. Varys is the key to many events in the series; he has a hand in creating the general chaos in Westeros at many points. Surely, GRRM shuold at some point address his motivations more clearly. If he really is a Targaryen supporter, why would he support a fake Aegon? Why risk Dany rejecting him? Is he really so credible as to think she would not question him?

Quite possibly, he has no reason to think otherwise. But if he himself believes/knows Aegon is real, it looks so much better. It would also make for better drama and tragedy: Dany will win Dance of Dragons 2.0, but with the irony that Aegon really was who he was made out to be, a Targaryen with a superior claim (which she simply didn't believe).

OTOH, if Varys knows Aegon is fake, he would be more than just a Targ loyalist: lacking a real Targ to support, he would try promoting a fake just to restore the name, if not the real bloodline, to the throne. The Blackfyres, at this point, arguably have no better a relationship to the main line than the Baratheons. Varys can tear down the power players of the 7K, but he cannot get a monarch of his preferred lineage until Dany comes across. On balance, there seems a strong case that Aegon has been demonstrated as real.

[Kahl Trollo]

Unless some undeniable evidence is presented, I'm going to be skeptical about Aegon's legitimacy. From the 'birds eye view' there are just too many things that don't make sense. So the interesting part for me isn't so much in the big holes in the story - but how Varys will cover them.

The first and foremost is that we all know that baby Aegon was presented dead to Robert Baratheon.. Well we know 'a baby' was presented. There are discussions already on all the aspects of Aegon's death, and to be honest I think the baby as Aegon is the most reasonable conclusion from those - but ultimately, it doesn't really matter. Varys may have already filled that hole.

Look at who was there when the corpse was presented.... go back and look at how many are still alive... I may have to double check, but I think the only one still alive is Jaime Lannister. Kevin was killed in the epilogue of the last book.

Varys could at this point present '*A* baby was killed.. but was it REALLY Aegon?' and who is alive to dispute or present evidence?

He doesn't need utter acceptance, he needs reasonable doubt, and that's a lot easier to procure.

Given a reasonable doubt, so far as the people are concerned, it may not matter. Given enough power the question of legitimacy isn't a raging deal-breaker as it might seem. We all know Joffrey wasn't Robert's son - it's pretty much a given that everyone who is anyone in the political power game also knows this. Yet it didn't matter - nor does it matter that Tommen isn't. It's not brought to the surface so long as it suits the players purposes for it to remain a 'dirty rumor'. If that were to change though......

So you have Tommen - a Baratheon on the thone, and a "Targaryen" you WANT on the throne... how to trade these? Maybe it's time for that 'dirty little secret' to become a 'dirty little fact' - it's unlikely that it will come up in the current trial of Cersei. But I don't see her winning her trial by combat as a given either. We have Lansel, who after finding his religion may be willing to pony up evidence to 'cleanse his soul' - but to what end? The Tyrells are currently making a move to take the throne via marriage from the waning Lannisters (their day in the sun is just about over, their house is falling apart) - so a political move to uncover 'twincest' would be political suicide. They need to be brought on board.

One idea here is that enough pressure is put on bringing Tommens illegitimacy to light is applied, it is possible for Varys to try and bring the Tyrells into the fold.. Maybe it's time for Margery to align with a new king? One with military power, and who isn't a boy with a failing house that could be deposed at any second? One that's coming for Kings Landing whether they like it or not? They could do a Tywin and jump ship at the last moment to what may be the winning side.

Aligning themselves with powerful house would certainly hush a lot of the questions about Aegon. After all, it worked very well for the Lannisters.

[Mayura]

Khal Trollo, I think you make a good point. But IMO, the Tyrells have been ready to switch sides and to betray the Lannisters from the beginning. What they want is, of course, to be on the winning side. At first they chose to side with Renly, then they join the Lannisters after being won over by Petyr Baelish (aka: after plotting with LF and finding a deal that would suit them both). Following their arrival at KL, they started plotting to murder Joffrey and to take control of the North through an alliance with Sansa Stark. They are clearly power-hungry, they are aware they don't have any claim to the throne per se but they will try to keep their hands on it through alliances (first with Renly Baratheon, then with Joffrey and Tommen Baratheon and ???)

Judging from Varys's discussions with Olenna Tyrell as showed in the TV Show, I started to belive it is not impossible Varys already has a sort of agreement with the Tyrells. Anyway, I think Varys has a plan for the Tyrells of Highgarden, and here is what I noticed while reading the epilogue of ADWD: Varys tells Kevan he had to be eliminated because he was nearly going to succeed in saving the Lannister/Tyrell alliance, which could have threathened Aegon's claim if Tommen had a strong hold on the IT. Now, with Kevan's death, Cersei is going to go deeper in her paranoia and to keep being repeatedly rude with the Tyrells. Which certainly means: if the Tyrells see an opportunity to rid themselves of the now weak and crazy Lannisters, it doesn't look like they would hesitate much, after all the trouble Cersei has put their family through... Plus, even with Marg married to Tommen and Mace as a regent, it doesn't seem enough for them to hold the Throne safely.

Hence, I was thinking the following: Viserys thought, in AGOT that the Tyrells would be among the families to declare for him should he come back to Westeros. If the alliance Tyrell/Lannister had been strong enough to secure the IT, I am not sure they would actually have declared for another pretender knowing their daughter and their descendants would sit the IT. However, now that the Lannister/Tyrell alliance is extremely weak, with a boy-King on the Throne and a not consummed marriage between Marg/Tommen (or for that matter: Marg has never consummed any wedding, therefore they could all be annulated by the faith if needed), no heir on the go, chaos in the air: declaring for Aegon Targaryen wouldn't be a bad deal for the Tyrells. Even better: with Kevan dead and Cersei under arrest, they hold Tommen. We know the Tyrells already got rid off a Lannister King, why not a second? It is the perfect moment, as another person was saying, to pull the story of the twincest out of their sleeve, with no doubt that the Faith will want to get the world rid of "Tommen and Myrcella, the abominations", hence leaving a clean free throne to Aegon VI without looking like disgusting kingslayers/childmurderers. That is why I think that in TWOW

Mace Tyrell's armies are getting to Storm's End, but maybe not exactly to fight against Aegon but to negociate the terms of an agreement

.

This could also be the start of the "war of the queens" as every king needs a queen, and it will be up to Aegon to choose which alliance would serve him most.

Hence, I think (f)Aegon will be the next to sit the IT. Varys's plan is set to work up until that point, he put everything in place so the realm would need Aegon Targaryen. It's a beautiful trick, because as he orchestrated everything from the shadow, the Lords and the westerosi didn't notice they were played the whole time.

However, after Aegon is on the Throne, there will be other matters to solve.

[TheTowerOfJoy]

You make some good points, and I certainly don't believe that Aegon is real. Purely because Tywin Lannister is too careful for that. If he presented the children as dead, then I am inclined to believe they are.

However, why would Varys lie to a man he's about to watch die? There's no motive. The man would die believing a lie to no end. There's simply no purpose (other than literary trickery) for Varys to tell Kevan all of these plans, if they weren't true.

I believe that Varys doesn't know that Aegon is fake. He appears to work for Illyrio, and if Illyrio told Varys, then why would Varys question him?

Ultimately, I think it will be Arianne/Doran who discover that Aegon is fake, which will throw a huge kink into Varys/Illyrio's plan, as they expected to gain Dorne's support for the throne, but if Doran/Arianne find out the truth, then the plan crumbles.

[AegonTargaryen]

I don't know guys, the more I sit on it the more I lean towards Aegon really being Aegon. Not because the textual evidence suggests it, but because the way I interpret Varys as a character leads me in that direction.

As the title of the thread suggests, Varys and Ilyrio have *something* they haven't yet revealed, and I'm convinced of that. I can assure everyone it won't be as easy as "Dany slays the lies, and her dragons kill Aegon."

When Dany asks about why Egg wasn't raised with her and Viserys, why they never told them about him, why he's only showed up now that she has dragons, I trust that Varys and Ilyrio will have a damn good explanation.

Same goes for Doran. He will initially be furious that some kid is pretending to be his sister's son, until team Aegon show him something that convinces him he is who he says he is.

I think there's more to Septa Lemore, and she could be an important part of it.

[aedalia]

Well, Varys must have something up his sleeve since he certainly doesn't have anything up his pantlegs... sorry, bad joke...

Anyway, to me, it doesn't matter if Aegon is real or fake- the boy believes he is real and had been taught based on the idea that he is real and will behave as though he is real. What matters, and what Varys must be counting on, is the desire for the smallfolk for Aegon to be real.

Varys has caused so much chaos, that, effectively, Viserys will be right: people will be making dragon banners, waiting for their return. They're going to be sick to death of the Lannisters & Baratheons and will welcome any Targ boy if he brings them food and peace. Winter is coming afterall.

[Summah]

I believe that Varys doesn't know that Aegon is fake. He appears to work for Illyrio, and if Illyrio told Varys, then why would Varys question him?

For Varys to believe that Aegon is real, he still himself must have switched babies and Gegor Clegane killed another peasant baby and Varys would know that. So do you think, then, that Varys switched babies sent the real baby Aegon over to Essos and then Illyrio switched real baby Aegon with a fake Aegon? I'm sorry even for those two that's too convoluted to make sense, I think if Varys is telling the truth about the baby switch then Aegon is probably real, and if he's not telling the truth then Aegon is definitely fake. Also Varys being Varys would likely not accept something that important at face value as a complete truth even from an co-conspirator like Illyrio, not without checking it on his own first. The picture you paint is of Varys as a pawn of Illyrio, and everything we know of Varys indicates that he is no one's pawn, but rather other people are (often unknowingly) his pawns.

Also I think Varys has his own plans and machinations going on that are separate from Illyrio, that Illyrio knows nothing about. I don't have any textual evidence to back this up, but I can't see Varys simply working towards Illyrio's aim without his own separate plans, except where it coincides with his own goals whatever those may be. And I think it likely he has contingency plans and so on.

[AegonTargaryen]

I thought I would bump this thread as I've been wondering about this topic again, but didn't want restart a thread. I was hoping some folks from the Faegon camp could chime in here.

Any new thoughts guys? What do Varys and Illyrio have in their back pockets that will answer all of the questions that Doran and Dany will surely have?

Why is team Aegon so convinced that Dany will accept their marriage proposal, and that Doran will support them, when their story is wrought with holes and inconsistencies?

[Jon of the Dead]

I think Varys original plan was to delay the siege of KL long enough (that's why he told Aerys to close the city gates to Tywin) for Ned to come in and send Aegon and Rhaenis to exile. Once in exile, Varys and Illyrio could kill them or hide them or whatever, just get them out of sight, and then pass fAegon as the real deal.

That way the lords of Westeros would be less skeptical, because to their knowledge, Aegon was still alive and in exile and now has decided to come back and claim the throne.

But now Varys is going to have to convince everyone not only that fAegon is real, but also that he's alive. I think Gregor complicated Varys' plans when he bashed Aegon's head against the wall.

[Jessica Rogers]

Isn't there something about Rhaegar having Darker eye's than most targ's? Dany saw something in the house of undying.

Also, didn't Tyrion make Note that the boy had dark eye's?

I really like this topic a lot. I feel like this angle had never been explored that I have seen anyway.

I don't think in anyway Varys is Illyo's puppet or works for him, I think Varys does what's good for Varys. but Having said that I think the two are playing each other and when it comes down to it Illyo will Back Dany and Verys will Back Aegon.

[harf2]

Perception is reality. It doesn't make any difference in the scheme of things what Aegon's parentage is. He resembles Rhaegar, coupled with the account of Connington and whomever else they are able to bring into the fold, that will be enough to convince enough people to join his cause. Dany is so desperate to have a familial connection she will take it at face value until it can be demonstrated that Aegon is not her nephew. Aegon will still need to win the throne through conquest, the same as all other challengers to the throne, and at the point his parentage is again, irrelevant to his ability to gain the throne.

[The Great and Mighty Poo]

I think everyone keeps forgetting at this point Varys does not need the lords support. This goes whether he's real or not. All he needs is the "little" people to go for it. And as we all know the little people don't care who's in power as long as they have a long summer and good harvests. Another point is the realm is a fraction of it's former self lots of high born lords are gone armies are destroyed. He doesn't need another ace up his sleeve he just needs things to go as planed. Oh I believe he's fake btw.

[Facebookless Man]

We all know Joffrey wasn't Robert's son - it's pretty much a given that everyone who is anyone in the political power game also knows this. Yet it didn't matter - nor does it matter that Tommen isn't.

And for the same reason it wouldn't matter if Aegon called himself Blackfyre as long as he was a credible candidate and offered profitable alliances. Even for those who care about "Legitimacy" - and they're precious few - he'd have at least as good a claim as a Baratheon.

[Facebookless Man]

I really like this topic a lot. I feel like this angle had never been explored that I have seen anyway.

I've been pointing it out for as long as I've been on this board (which is not that much) but apparently it doesn't matter if Varys' actions don't make any sense as long as people can bask in their elaborate interpretations of cryptic clues in the text.

[Jessica Rogers]

I've been pointing it out for as long as I've been on this board (which is not that much) but apparently it doesn't matter if Varys' actions don't make any sense as long as people can bask in their elaborate interpretations of cryptic clues in the text.

OMG! thank you for saying that, I feel the same way!

[DarkAndFullOfTurnips]

I think everyone keeps forgetting at this point Varys does not need the lords support. This goes whether he's real or not. All he needs is the "little" people to go for it. And as we all know the little people don't care who's in power as long as they have a long summer and good harvests. Another point is the realm is a fraction of it's former self lots of high born lords are gone armies are destroyed. He doesn't need another ace up his sleeve he just needs things to go as planed. Oh I believe he's fake btw.

I'm not sure what the support of a bunch of unarmed and soon to be starving peasants really means compared to a lord who can deploy tens of thousands of soldiers to fight.

[Whitering]

Right so to get more dragons Aegon is going to walk into a bonfire blessed by, well, at least magic, and maybe the gods themselves? Along with the story of the dragons themselves there must be some tale about how they were born and why they imprinted themselves onto Dany.

[Mistress of Lemon Cakes]

Like others have mentioned: I don't think it matters whether Aegon is a real Targaryen or not. People will rally behind him because he will have sensible counselors, because he is not a child, and because he is not a Lannister or Baratheon. I'm rereading the book series right now and I never noticed how many people have commented on what a king should look like (Jon of all people thinks to himself that Jaime Lannister looks more like a king than the sloppy, fat Robert.) Aegon will "look" like a King because of his intelligence and his training. And the people will clamor for leadership that can unite a war torn land.

Someone mentioned the idea that Mace Tyrell would show up at Storm's End to negociate peace terms with Aegon. This makes perfect sense if you consider the fact that the Tyrells are opportunists. They've already jumped ship once. They'll do it again when it becomes clear that the Lannisters have lost all power in King's Landing. It will be appropriate that they defect back as Targaryen loyalists considering they were Targaryen loyalists right up until the bitter end after Aerys was slain.

With all that said ... Aegon being real or not is also going to be a moot point. I really don't think he's going to be the uniting force for Westeros in the end. I don't see George giving that role to a character that is introduced so late in the series. My money is on Daenerys in the end, provided she ever leaves Essos.

As for Varys?

I have absolutely no doubt whatsoever that Varys has something else up his sleeve. I just have no idea what it is. I was completely sold on his speech to Ned Stark that he serves the realm. I know this thread is in the book discussion message board but I like to think back to his conversation with Littlefinger in season 3 when they have their chaos vs. order speech. Varys understands the stories about Aegon the Conqueror and the literal Iron Throne are exagerations, but he believes them to be necessary exagerations/fabrications to maintain order and prevent utter chaos from befalling the realm. Whether or not this proves to be true remains to be seen. Thus far Varys remains to be one of the most mysterious characters in the series which is probably why I love him so much.

[TheTowerOfJoy]

Going over all the talk of whether Aegon is real or not one question lingers for me; didn't Varys anticipate that no one would believe him when he conveniently shows up with the Targaryen heir that everyone believes to be dead? Are the lords of Westeros supposed to take him for his word and rally behind a boy with silver hair and purple eyes? I can't accept that that's the plan.

We know from the Arianne chapter in WoW that Doran himself has reservations about Aegon, why would he declare for a random kid just because he claims to be his sister's son? I don't think he would. I think Doran will need some kind of confirmation that Aegon is indeed Aegon.

The same applies for the other lords of Westeros. News of Aegon's landing will be met with overwhelming scepticism.

I've thought about this a bit since July, and am no longer of the opinion that Varys doesn't know...

With that said, what if Aegon comes in and claims to be the son of Rhaegar, wins several victories and then when everyone denies it, Varys steps forward and confirms that the babies could have been switched. In that way, he's giving credence to Aegon's claim, instead of being the one making the claim. Now how he could do that without saying he switched the babies would certainly be a challenge. Perhaps he could claim that Aerys, Elia and JonCon conspired to make the switch to get the heir out of the realm?