Stannis Baratheons next move.

[E-Ro]

So, currently stannis is engaged against roose Bolton and his frey allies. I am assuming that stannis is going to beat Bolton and the freys soundly by doing a tactic similar to what Alexander nevsky did at the battle of ice in real life.

My reasoning for this is as follows.

1.Stannis and his men are on a lake, the lake is being drilled with numerous holes to fish from, one of the northmen comments on how the lake is fished out and full of holes.

2.Stannis comments on how his men will be fighting on foot.

3.He remarks on how he holds the ground.

4.The man in charge of the freys is an idiot, made even more stupid by his anger and frustration.

5.The battle in real life is called the battle of the ice, its also referred to as that by the author.

"Bolton has blundered," the king declared. "All he had to do was sit inside his castle whilst we starved. Instead he has sent some portion of his strength forth to give us battle. His knights will be horsed, ours must fight afoot. His men will be well nourished, ours go into battle with empty bellies. It makes no matter. Ser Stupid, Lord Too-Fat, the Bastard, let them come. We hold the ground, and that I mean to turn to our advantage."

After the frey force sent after stannis is broken, manderly rides in, makes a deal with stannis takes his sword to roose as proof stannis is dead, and opens up the gates. Simple.

Now, this is extremely likely, but not certain, so for the sake of argument lets say it goes as I think it will. My question is, what next? What does stannis baratheon do after such a victory? The way I see it, he will either go back north to fight others and assist the nights watch with their troubles, and find out what has happened to jon. Or he will go south to continue the game of thrones. I have no preference either way, as i think whatever choice he makes its going to be epic, I am just curious as to what people would think is the better option or what hes most likely to do.

Things to keep in mind.

A) First of all, there is allot of stuff going on at the wall right now, and if he gets word of all of this, it will definitely play a part in his choice to go north or south.

B) He is expecting 20 thousand sell swords to arrive in support of him soon.

c) There is a new player in the south, faegon, and he is sure to shake things up a bit.

d) Stannis still has some holdings in the south, not every castle sworn to him has fallen, in fact its possible(but extremely unlikely) that dragonstone is still his.

e) The tyrell and lannister alliance is ready to collapse, there is so much going on in KL right now, that it looks like the current regime is ready to go at the drop of a hat.

f) How fast are the others moving? Stannis does understand that the others are a real and vary dangerous threat. If he feels they will be arriving soon he WILL go north to fight them, he would not go south if they are arriving. This is hard to account for, but it is most likely the most important factor in his next move. If there is no word on them from the wall, he may think he has more then enough time to go south again.

What do the people of westeros.org think of all this, is stannis going south to play the game of thrones, or is he going north to face others?

ETA Added a spoiler tag.

[l3ol3o]

I think he will try to go South which will be his downfall. I don't think the North will follow him South with the Others banging on the door. This will lead to a new ruler in the North in either Jon, Rickon, or Sansa. I think Stannis will eventually take KL and sit on the IT but only briefly before he is deposed by another. He will never return North.

[The Mother of The Others]

Consolidate winterfell, get chummy with Manderly, (put down The Others, perhaps with an odd assortment of helpers), sail to the capital using White Harbor vessels (perhaps to meet there an odd assortment of contenders)?

[Pinkie Baelish]

I think he's going to become Ramsay's new pair of boots.

If the GNC theory is true, and it's very likely it is, I suspect the northmen will turn on Stannis when Rickon is found and returned to the North. Otherwise, I think he'll have an integral part to play in the war with the Others, where he'll either die fighting for the Watch, or against it.

I don't expect him to move anywhere near KL or the South now that Aegon and Euron are around. That's Targaryen territory for the rest of the series, sadly. Stannis's endgame will probably be linked to the North.

TL;DR - My predictions:

-Stannis will win at the Battle of Winterfell

-Ramsay kills Roose and flees to the Dreadfort

-Stannis hears about Jon's assassination

-The Others make their move

-Stannis marches back up to the Wall to deal with both issues

-Engages in battle with the Others

-Ends up missing

-Is resurrected at the end of TWOW as the Night's King reborn

[The Red Melli]

I think he will go south. And I guess he will die in WoW :frown5: because hey it's GRRM.

[The Mother of The Others]

I'd hope for closure with him and the southern plot, but the main thing working aginst that now is the clock ticking down on this series.

So far he's been walking the line like a proper king whom the northmen shouldn't need to revolt against. He might bristle a bit when they install their northern leader and pay less attention to Stannis, but that's also what Stannis would see as proper, since he's the king of the whole enchilada supposedly so he won't press them to be made king in the north or anything like that.

[E-Ro]

If the GNC theory is true, and it's very likely it is, I suspect the northmen will turn on Stannis when Rickon is found and returned to the North. Otherwise, I think he'll have an integral part to play in the war with the Others, where he'll either die fighting for the Watch, or against it.

What would the north gain by turning on him? It would just be senseless violence against a guy trying to aid them. Maybe they don't accept him as their king, but i doubt they go after him with force. I also doubt highly that hes ever going to be fighting against the watch. He remarks numerous times on how the real enemy is the others, and grrm has outright told us that stannis is a righteous man because he understands that.

I don't expect him to move anywhere near KL or the South now that Aegon and Euron are around. That's Targaryen territory for the rest of the series, sadly. Stannis's endgame will probably be linked to the North.

I think hes most likely going north as well. But heading south again isnt out of the realm of possibility. That being said, him dying against others would be a far more satisfying ending then any death in the south.

[Pinkie Baelish]

What would the north gain by turning on him? It would just be senseless violence against a guy trying to aid them. Maybe they don't accept him as their king, but i doubt they go after him with force. I also doubt highly that hes ever going to be fighting against the watch. He remarks numerous times on hos the real enemy is the others, and grrm has outright told us that stannis is a righteous man because he understands that.

I get what you're saying, but I don't think it's a stretch to assume that the Northerners would contemplate the idea if they have the strength and the Stark to do so. After all, Wyman is just using Stannis as a means to an end, since there are no viable alternatives. The North wouldn't take too kindly to Stannis' religion, and might still remember that he refused to ally with Robb. Not saying it's a certainty, but it's possible.

And as for fighting with the Others, the Stannis is the Night's King theory has me sold on the idea. The great thing with Stannis is that right now, he's poised for his arc to end either as a good guy or a bad guy, and still be satisfying. This doesn't have to mean that he willingly turns to the dark side, it could be forced upon him. But if anybody is going to turn into the NK reborn, Stannis is my top choice and the one that makes the most narrative sense. How fitting would it be that the man who Melisandre considered to be the champion of light turned out to be the exact antithesis of what she believed all along?

I think hes most likely going north as well. But heading south again isnt out of the realm of possibility. That being said, him dying against others would be a far more satisfying ending then any death in the south.

:agree:

[Stannis Eats No Peaches]

I'm guessing that the Night's Watch will contact him and he'll return to the Wall. Stannis is well aware that the Northerners are unlikely to want to march south again.

[Toxspecific]

I was losing the will to visit these forums anymore, but all it took was hearing that rumbling, ominous sounding theme of Stannis at the Blackwater to bring me back.

First of all I hereby refuse to give the reasons as to why Stannis is a favourite to win the battle vs the Boltons. The reasons are there, read them, understand them, consult E-ro. Now, some people say going South would be a bad idea. Well assuming Stannis does not stay personally to face the Others, why is going South a bad move? The Tyrell and Lannister regime is pretty damn unstable and the Tyrells will soon have to fight Aegon, Dorne and Ironborn. Total chaos. Jamie lost in the Riverlands. Mor chaos. Chaos is perfect to descend upon if you are a rebel King like Stannis.

Whatever sells words he can get he can use to wipeout weaker, disunited left overs of the chaos while he rides through the Riverlands like a Boss. Then the tougher part comes which I feel can go either way. And I'm sleepy. E-ro, what do you think are the odds of Stannis vs Aegon, taking into consideration the roles Ironborn, Dorne and Dany (no way in hell that annoying child will be kept in Essos for even a second more)?

P.S just wanted to say, you rock, keep up the good work, we are Stannis men! And I love how autocorrect kept turning your name into 'E-or' xD

[Pero the first of His name]

Nice thread E-Ro, i think Stannis will do things differently after he wins the battle of ice and Winterfell than most predict.

He will help the North restore itself under Stark (Rickon) rule with Wyman or someone else as regent/handish type.

The Northeners will be very grateful for his help to defeat the wildlings, Greyjoys and Boltons and certainly will not turn on him (else ill despise them all).

But their support in his claim for the Iron Throne will be only a little more than nominal, which is reasonable.

Stannis will hear of the events in the south. He will take no scumbag traitors, separatists or usurpers for his ally, but this time he could be more patient and let others wear themselves out.

He can just sit in Moat Cailin for a while. His reinforcements will come, but very likely less than expected.

From here onward it is hard to predict things.

Yes, Winter and Others are coming but how fast and with what numbers? Unless they hit very hard very soon Stannis will not consider going to the Wall just yet.

At this time he could learn Mellissandre is no longer with him but fully engaged at the wall. She could see Jon is AA and abandon Stannis or she could still believe Stannis is AA and summon for him. This will be interesting.

Ultimately, i think Battle of the Trident 2.0 with Dany fighting an ``icy usurper`` will happen. And i do not know what to conclude...

1. Did Stannis already go north, failed because overwhelmed (but still did a great job and died protecting the realm with a smile on his face) and now Others are coming south?

2. Did Others come south but Stannis was not in the way? Perhaps moved elsewhere via Braavosi navy?

3. Maybe ``icy usurpers`` are not others but Stannis, Jon, Northmen and HR and Crannogmen moving south first to destroy Freys then for the Throne and they are covered in snow and ice because it is raging winter.

there are some theories that suggest Stannis could go a bit crazy and join with the Others too. I would not like that.

It will be fun. And i want a win or a glorious death for Stannis too.

[Djinn]

-Lure the Frey into charging in the lake's rotten ice, sinking them. Claim their supplies and equipment(surcoats).

-Strike a deal with Manderly. Give Manderly Lightbringer, some black hair blue eyed head, and some ''Frey'' soldier to return to WF.

-Manderly troops with these ''Freys'' take over one of WF gates while Whorebane's Umbers launch chaos inside.

-Stannis and the rest of his army charge into WF, crushing Boltons and their supporters.

-Dispatch a force to Moat Cailin. Send emissaries to all Northern seats to secure their allegiance and command them to send troops to Castle Black.

-Send surviving Ironborn(after swearing oaths) to WH to assist Davos in preparing the fleet for sailing to Dragonstone(get dragonglass).

-Secure the obedience of the Dreadfort.

-Coordinate the march of all available troops in the North(except Moat and fleet and small garrisons) to defend the Wall.

-Once the sellswords arrive, begin preparing to transport them south by ship into the Riverlands to brake Frey hold on them(trough Maidenpool or Gulltown).

[Lala]

Hm~ I think, barring any information about an actual Other attack, Stannis may go South. After all, a united realm has a much better chance against an apocalyptic invasion than a fragmented one - the Others basically have an endless supply of soldiers since they can just rev any unburned dead, and the NW/Stannis are still fairly limited in numbers. I also think Stannis is aware that you can't exactly rely on sellswords to fight ice zombies, so it would make sense to use them to secure the South and then lead a unified Westeros against the Others.

[House Mauldania]

Stannis believes the IT is his by rights, he'll find out soon enough that he does not have the army or friends to take it, he'll become insane and end up siding with the Others and leading their army so he can rule the 7K. He'll die in the process at some point.

[Toxspecific]

Stannis believes the IT is his by rights, he'll find out soon enough that he does not have the army or friends to take it, he'll become insane and end up siding with the Others and leading their army so he can rule the 7K. He'll die in the process at some point.

That's horrible. No reasoning, no anything. Just crackpot and a bit ridiculous.

[Joe Pine]

Assuming he wins as the OP and others have said, The only way Stannis could get the northern troops south is for revenge on the rest of the Freys.

Seems simple enough, but he's left Melisandre at the wall and would he go without her counsel?

I have a feeling that Stannis may have a plan to turn on the Freys at the crossing, but events intervene.

[TheMysteriousOne]

And as for fighting with the Others, the Stannis is the Night's King theory has me sold on the idea. The great thing with Stannis is that right now, he's poised for his arc to end either as a good guy or a bad guy, and still be satisfying. This doesn't have to mean that he willingly turns to the dark side, it could be forced upon him. But if anybody is going to turn into the NK reborn, Stannis is my top choice and the one that makes the most narrative sense. How fitting would it be that the man who Melisandre considered to be the champion of light turned out to be the exact antithesis of what she believed all along?

I agree with most of that theory. If there is a NK, then Stannis is my top choice.

[Toxspecific]

Sounds like another theory just for the fans of other kings to devise an ideal path for Stannis out of the race for the Iron Throne, this Night King thing.

Going through logistics and strategical goods and bads seems a much better way to theorise what Stannis will be doing next than by saying he has blue eyes and no shadow so he will be a Night King because screw everything, we want him out of the race.

[Jon of the Dead]

He'll go back to the Wall as soon as he hears of the clusterfuck that's going over there with Mel trying to sacrifice Shireen, Jon dying, the Night's Watch revolting, the Queen's Men and the Wildling's fighting each other, and the Others approaching.

[The Mother of The Others]

Well if he's destined to dead end in the north, might as well go weird with it so we get our money's worth. That might be the reasoning of some who just want to be mindblown by as many major characters turning zombie as possible.

Djinn's ^ type of scenario is what the faithful would be hoping for. That was well laid out in baby steps.

If Arya can step away from her faceless cult's influence, maybe Stannis can divorce himself from his cult too? No. Pointless, because his sense of duty would keep him anchored up North to face the threat even if he and Melisandre parted ways, so it wouldn't let him get to KL any faster. I guess the thing about making the kingdom whole before the Others struck might make sense, but I don't think there's time enough for it before the Others strike. I think the door just got thrown open for them to attack (the Watch in disarray) and they will without any further waiting. And I think Stannis also made his choice irrevocably to stick with Mel by giving so much of his essence up to the shadow magic. Now he can't stand on his own like when he was hale, needs his fire crutch. So..... does one have to hope for Jon's ascendence to sweep the Baratheon into power along with him? But a Baratheon on Jon's arm would make it turbo unlikely for either Targaryen to be the 3rd head of any triumvirate then. It'd be too weird for the Dany + Jon romance to have the unforgivable Baratheons as its 3rd wheel, like their chaperone. So..... Dany dies up north, let's say, and Aegon dies on the field down south, leaving Stan standing, however feebly, and some debacle will take down the Faith Militant, perhaps through a combo of Cersei gunning for them and the people turning away from them when they turn towards R'hllor to defend them with fire after the Ice Snarks turn out to be real. That's Stan's path to the prize?