Stannis Baratheons next move.

[TheMysteriousOne]

Sounds like another theory just for the fans of other kings to devise an ideal path for Stannis out of the race for the Iron Throne, this Night King thing.

Going through logistics and strategical goods and bads seems a much better way to theorise what Stannis will be doing next than by saying he has blue eyes and no shadow so he will be a Night King because screw everything, we want him out of the race.

Have you read the theory?

Stannis being the Night's King doesn't take him out of the race for the Iron Throne, it actually makes him a more formidable opponent, IMO. I'm not completely sold on the theory, but if there is a NK reborn, I think it will most likely be Stannis. The parallels between Stannis and the Night's King and Melisandre and the Night King's Other queen are really convincing (especially since many of us believe Mel to be some sort of fire wight, for lack of a better term).

[Lady Tippy Wolfsbane]

Personally, I do not believe that the North will turn on Stannis, because I feel that Stannis himself will understand the need to continue his alliance with the North, regardless of their terms. I also feel that he will partially turn his back on the Red God...but that's just me. ;)

I don't understand the need for there to be another Night's King, and I feel the story was only included because that is the true identity of Coldhands. I do not see Stannis turning his back on the realm to align himself with the Others, but anything's possible.

[Winter's Prince]

Go to the Iron Islands and install Asha as Lady Paramount. With her ships he can lay siege to KL once again.

[Pinkie Baelish]

Sounds like another theory just for the fans of other kings to devise an ideal path for Stannis out of the race for the Iron Throne, this Night King thing.

Going through logistics and strategical goods and bads seems a much better way to theorise what Stannis will be doing next than by saying he has blue eyes and no shadow so he will be a Night King because screw everything, we want him out of the race.

I don't think it's simply to do with convenience to the plot. It's something which is very narratively plausible in regards to Stannis' arc. He's the king that's linked closest to magic, especially dark magic. He's also in the North right now, which not only seems to contain some otherworldly qualities, but will be the first place to be affected should the Others attack. Not only that, but he's the only king that's even seriously addressed the threat beyond the wall, and the only one that looks to fight and vanquish this threat. Not to mention the whole fire imagery that is continually present throughout his arc, and the parallels between Melisandre and the Night's Queen. Therefore, it's really not a stretch to assume that he'll be inextricably linked to the Others.

What would Stannis winning KL really achieve from a literary perspective? It would advance the plot, but would it really reveal anything new or advance his character development? There's been a second Dance of the Dragons foreshadowed throughout the entire series, and it doesn't really need any involvement from Stannis. Daenerys vs Aegon is interesting enough as it is.

I don't support the NK theory because I don't want Stannis to win(in fact, he's the only King that I'm rooting for). It's just that given the foreshadowing and style of Martin, I just consider it a definite possibility. Maybe not in the same way that the OP of that theory stated, but something similar. I always considered Stannis to be a bit of a Faustian figure, and him going over to the dark side definitely plays up on this. Besides, it would be a hell of a twist.

I don't understand the need for there to be another Night's King, and I feel the story was only included because that is the true identity of Coldhands. I do not see Stannis turning his back on the realm to align himself with the Others, but anything's possible.

He seems too old to be Coldhands. I'm thinking with all the speculation about his identity, the reveal could probably be pretty anti-climactic: he could simply just be a nameless NW member that's being controlled by Bloodraven. But that's a discussion for another thread.

[thewingedwolf]

So, currently stannis is engaged against roose Bolton and his frey allies. I am assuming that stannis is going to beat Bolton and the freys soundly by doing a tactic similar to what Alexander nevsky did at the battle of ice in real life.

My reasoning for this is as follows.

1.Stannis and his men are on a lake, the lake is being drilled with numerous holes to fish from, one of the northmen comments on how the lake is fished out and full of holes.

2.Stannis comments on how his men will be fighting on foot.

3.He remarks on how he holds the ground.

4.The man in charge of the freys is an idiot, made even more stupid by his anger and frustration.

5.The battle in real life is called the battle of the ice, its also referred to as that by the author.

"Bolton has blundered," the king declared. "All he had to do was sit inside his castle whilst we starved. Instead he has sent some portion of his strength forth to give us battle. His knights will be horsed, ours must fight afoot. His men will be well nourished, ours go into battle with empty bellies. It makes no matter. Ser Stupid, Lord Too-Fat, the Bastard, let them come. We hold the ground, and that I mean to turn to our advantage."

After the frey force sent after stannis is broken, manderly rides in, makes a deal with stannis takes his sword to roose as proof stannis is dead, and opens up the gates. Simple.

Now, this is extremely likely, but not certain, so for the sake of argument lets say it goes as I think it will. My question is, what next? What does stannis baratheon do after such a victory? The way I see it, he will either go back north to fight others and assist the nights watch with their troubles, and find out what has happened to jon. Or he will go south to continue the game of thrones. I have no preference either way, as i think whatever choice he makes its going to be epic, I am just curious as to what people would think is the better option or what hes most likely to do.

Things to keep in mind.

A) First of all, there is allot of stuff going on at the wall right now, and if he gets word of all of this, it will definitely play a part in his choice to go north or south.

B) He is expecting 20 thousand sell swords to arrive in support of him soon.

c) There is a new player in the south, faegon, and he is sure to shake things up a bit.

d) Stannis still has some holdings in the south, not every castle sworn to him has fallen, in fact its possible(but extremely unlikely) that dragonstone is still his.

e) The tyrell and lannister alliance is ready to collapse, there is so much going on in KL right now, that it looks like the current regime is ready to go at the drop of a hat.

f) How fast are the others moving? Stannis does understand that the others are a real and vary dangerous threat. If he feels they will be arriving soon he WILL go north to fight them, he would not go south if they are arriving. This is hard to account for, but it is most likely the most important factor in his next move. If there is no word on them from the wall, he may think he has more then enough time to go south again.

What do the people of westeros.org think of all this, is stannis going south to play the game of thrones, or is he going north to face others?

ETA Added a spoiler tag.

First off, great analysis of the current situation and I love the reference to the battle of ice. Well done. Here are my thoughts on what the future holds for Stannis Baratheron. I think that what Stannis decides to do (or not to do) is very circumstancial and depends largely on factors that are outside of his control. Allow me to elaborate on this:

1. The arrival of the 20,000 sellswords is in no way guaranteed for a number of reasons. From the Sam chapters in ADwD we have seen how treacherous the journey at sea is from the North to Braavos and back.

1.1 Therefore first possible outcome of Justin Massey's trip is that the boat sinks and they never make it to Braavos and the reinforcements don't come.

1.2 Second possible outcome, the trip is likely to be delayed by storms or pirates or kraken or God knows what which means that Justin Massey may not return as fast as Stannis would like would the promised army and part of the army may be lost on the journey (remember the missing ships from the Golden Company).

1.3 Third possible outcome is that everything goes according to plan and Justin Massey returns on time.

I don't think Stannis will move from Winterfell untill Massey returns so his next move may be one of patience and sitting still until the army arrives.

2. The alliance with Manderly and possibly other northern lords. As great a commander as Stannis is, he is terrible at making alliances and with his chief negotiator (i.e. Davos) away in Skagos, who knows how long the newfound friendship will last? I have long claimed that Stannis's biggest flaw is his complete ineptness as a diplomat. Therefore, what happens to the Alliance if Davos does not come back in a timely manner with Rickon, or if Rickon is dead or if for any reasons this whole process takes longer than planned? How long can the northern lords be expected to wait?

Again here, patience may be the key. Stay and begin rebuilding Winterfell, build stronger bonds with the northern lords, go easy on the burning of people alive. Execute Theon for his betrayal and perform other actions that will show his goodwill to the northern lords. In fact he may want to arrange a bethrotal between Shireen and Rickon Stark to solidify the alliance.

The bottom line, in my opinion, is that Stannis cannot march South without three things happening:

1. Justin Massey returns with all (or a significant portion of) the 20,000 promised sellswords.

2. Davos returns from Skagos with Rickon Stark and he is re-instated as Lord of Winterfell

3. Davos can solidify a powerful alliance with several northern lords and possibly what is left of Robb Stark's forces at Greywater Watch.

Therefore I would conclude that Stannis needs to show patience. Winterfell is a strong castle that can withstand the winter (with some repairs). Let the pieces fall into place, wait for things to get worst in the South (the Tyrells still have the most powerful army in Westeros) and strike at an opportune time.

Thoughts?

[three-eyed monkey]

It's a hard one to call with all the balls in the air at the moment. I agree that Stannis will probably win the battle of ice but I'm concerned about the GNC.

If the Northern Lords want to keep the whole KitN thing going, be it with Jon or Rickon, then it's going to be sticky. Stannis is not going to stand for that, considering he thought of Robb as a traitor, but he's only got about a thousand troops loyal to him and is greatly outnumbered by northerners. I don't think they'll kill him. Someone has to sit on the Iron Throne, independent north or not, and I'm sure they'd rather Stannis than a Lannister. So maybe they'll back him for the throne once he agrees that it's six kingdoms he gets, not seven. But would he agree to such?

So how long will it take Massey to get the sellswords together? He hasn't even gotten back to the Wall yet. Jon sent all the ships from Eastwatch to Hardhome, including the Iron Bank ships. Eastwatch may soon be swamped with Others if Mel's vision is correct. There are storms in the Narrow Sea. All the sellsword companies of note seem otherwise engaged which may slow down the recruiting process. Then they got to get back to Westeros. It's a big ask really.

And then there's events at the Wall to consider.

I desperately want Stannis to succeed, but I fear my hopes will be flayed by the Bastard of Martin, slowly and cruelly, just as he likes to do.

[Jamie Lannister]

Stannis defeating Roose isn't such a forgone conclusion IMO. They're two of Westeros's toughest customers; I think Roose will be a very costly boss fight, and might even win.

That said, Ramsay and his gang of Frey goons stand no chance against Stan.

[Lady Tippy Wolfsbane]

What would Stannis winning KL really achieve from a literary perspective? It would advance the plot, but would it really reveal anything new or advance his character development? There's been a second Dance of the Dragons foreshadowed throughout the entire series, and it doesn't really need any involvement from Stannis. Daenerys vs Aegon is interesting enough as it is.

I truly believe that there will be another Dance of the Dragons. I doubt Stannis will sit the Iron Throne, since his story is in the North, but I refuse to believe that he will be on the side with the Others. I feel that helping to defeat the Others will reveal a lot about his character, because he will need to overcome a few personal obstacles and find his own redemption after being led astray by his belief in the Red God.

He seems too old to be Coldhands. I'm thinking with all the speculation about his identity, the reveal could probably be pretty anti-climactic: he could simply just be a nameless NW member that's being controlled by Bloodraven. But that's a discussion for another thread.

We can agree to disagree...in this thread. :cheers:

[SkaggCannibal]

I get what you're saying, but I don't think it's a stretch to assume that the Northerners would contemplate the idea if they have the strength and the Stark to do so. After all, Wyman is just using Stannis as a means to an end, since there are no viable alternatives. The North wouldn't take too kindly to Stannis' religion, and might still remember that he refused to ally with Robb. Not saying it's a certainty, but it's possible.

The Northern Lords should consider themselves lucky Stannis forgave them for their treasons.

Now I hope Stannis will be going south. That's because I like it there more than on the Wall. But besides my hopes, I actually believe this will happen because of the forshadowing of Patchface that has been discussed on the forum. I also know there is a heavy task for him at the Wall and he can't run away from it, so idealistic he would first go to the wall, defeat the WW, proof himself (again) a true Protector of the Realm and go south to claim the Iron Throne. But that's way to good to be true so impossible. What I think will happen:

Stannis wins the Battle of Ice, wins Winterfell, installs Rickon and has full Northern support. I don't believe in the GNC because Manderly gave Davos his word and I don't take him for an oathbreaker. At the Wall Jon and magic stuff happens, turns out Stannis isn't AA. Now that lifts some weight of his shoulders but he can't just abandon the fight against the WW. More Southern support is needed so he HAS to go south. He commands most northern forces to go man the Wall. He takes most of his own forces and Manderly's, maybe some other northerns too on his ships. At this point maybe the sellswords have come too so he can use these (doesn't really add up timewise, those sellswords are gonna be soooo late) and maybe Waters' fleet too. That man has served him before so it's not totally ridiculous. Anyway, although his force is significantly smaller than the last time he attacked at Blackwater Bay, he has learned from his mistakes. With some brilliant tactics he manages to take the city by surprise. The people inside King's Landing shiver with fear when they hear the sudden drums (again). While sacking the city (without rapes, otherwise geldings) his loyal troops are calling "STANNIS! STANNIS! STANNIS!!" and he finally gets what was all this time his by right. He can't help but crack a tiny smile. King's Landing finally taste some good Northern revenge. And the justice of Stannis.

This could all be totally wrong and I may have over-written that last part, but that's how I imagine it. :cool4:

[caravaggio]

I'm pulling for Stannis to make it to the end of the series, he has become one of my favorites.

That being said after his victory at Winterfell it is hard to see where he goes. I'm not sure there will be a Wall or Night's Watch for him to go back to and even if there is it feels like a step backwards. Going south seems equally unsatisfying unless he really is going to take the throne.

My guess is some game changer will throw all his plans for a loop (and our predictions). That might be Jon finding out about his parents. It's hard to say how Stannis would react to that. I'd hate to see him become some kind of subordinate of Jon (I love Jon, but Stannis kneeling to him... meh) so I tend to hope it will break him and that leads into the Night's King ideas. I suppose I could see him leading men north past the wall, but we did just have one whole book of him trudging through snow...

[Blood of the Flagon]

not sure if all this would happen but if he wants to win and gets lucky it will

First of all, assuming decisive victory at winterfell, he will march south. Some of the north may head for the wall but the rest will march south for a shot at the twins. The north stays loyal to kill freys.

The brotherhood likely has someone in the twins and they do have tom o sevens and probably several others in riverrun.

The blackfish is still at large, and the river lords have no reason to be loyal to the throne at this point.

It is also extremely important to remember that the BWB are devout Lord of Light worshipers complete with their own red priest.

All of this lead me to believe Stannis will march south and win the river lands. He also has manderlys ships and possibly davos to command them and massey's sellswords. Who knows, he may even obtain the loyalty of the knights of the vale should little finger fall be foiled by sansa.

With the iron born in the west and golden company in the south it is not looking good for sweet young Tommen.

This is how stannis takes kings landing.

[E-Ro]

Thoughts?

I agree for the most part, especially about the patience thing. Its worth noting that stannis has been bending allot more then he has at the beginning of the series. I think this will play a MAJOR role in events to come.

As for this nights king theory, im not sold. Part of the problem is that we know next to nothing about the nights king and what his motives were.

And lol, the responses have all been great btw guys, some of you are super optimistic, some, not so much.

[thewingedwolf]

I agree for the most part, especially about the patience thing. Its worth noting that stannis has been bending allot more then he has at the begging of the series. I think this will play a MAJOR role in events to come.

In his defense, he really did. However I think the key pieces for Stannis are now out of his control and I don't know how he will react to that. It will be very interesting to see what happens in TWoW.

[Lala]

I agree for the most part, especially about the patience thing. Its worth noting that stannis has been bending allot more then he has at the beginning of the series. I think this will play a MAJOR role in events to come.

As for this nights king theory, im not sold. Part of the problem is that we know next to nothing about the nights king and what his motives were.

And lol, the responses have all been great btw guys, some of you are super optimistic, some, not so much.

wrt to Martin, I feel like the mantra "hope for the best, prepare for the worst" is fairly valid =P

[StannisBamfatheon]

The north turning on Stannis is an incredibly overblown notion. Save for the Boltons I don't think there's a more honorable region in all of Westeros then, I find it hard to believe after he potentially retrieves their liege-lord, saved the night's watch from complete rout/annihilation at the Battle of the Wall, defeats the bastard traitors Bolton/Frey, that the north would then betray him. I think after all that goodwill he will have earned some loyalty. I think the ruination of the Blackwater forsook the south forever for Stannis though, whether he knows it or not, his true war lies in the north and he's the only king or lord who could see that. Demon's made of snow and ice and cold...the ancient enemy. The only enemy that matters. My hope is that he frees the north then leads it against the others. But who knows its GRRM maybe he'll die after eating a donut hole before the battle starts.

[Lady Tippy Wolfsbane]

My hope is that he frees the north then leads it against the others. But who knows its GRRM maybe he'll die after eating a donut hole before the battle starts.

:crying:

I hope GRRM doesn't take Stannis out of the game prematurely. He has set it up for Stannis to have some form of a happy ending, even if it ends in death, and it still seem realistic. *fingers crossed*

[E-Ro]

First of all I hereby refuse to give the reasons as to why Stannis is a favourite to win the battle vs the Boltons. The reasons are there, read them, understand them, consult E-ro. Now, some people say going South would be a bad idea. Well assuming Stannis does not stay personally to face the Others, why is going South a bad move? The Tyrell and Lannister regime is pretty damn unstable and the Tyrells will soon have to fight Aegon, Dorne and Ironborn. Total chaos. Jamie lost in the Riverlands. Mor chaos. Chaos is perfect to descend upon if you are a rebel King like Stannis.

Whatever sells words he can get he can use to wipeout weaker, disunited left overs of the chaos while he rides through the Riverlands like a Boss. Then the tougher part comes which I feel can go either way. And I'm sleepy. E-ro, what do you think are the odds of Stannis vs Aegon, taking into consideration the roles Ironborn, Dorne and Dany (no way in hell that annoying child will be kept in Essos for even a second more)?

Well, im not sure on what forces each one would have open to them. But im fairly certain that faegon is dead, and I think stannis isnt the one to kill him but dany. So any conflict stannis has in the south will be against the lannister tyrell alliance or dany. Or both of those factions perhaps, im not sure. Its hard to say at this point. He has proven to be a capable leader, and a great general, so he has a fair chance if he can get support in the south.

But, the more i think about this the more I favor him staying in the north. The only thing that makes me think twice about it is patchfaces prophecy...

[illrede]

As said in the Court of the Merling King; saving the realm from snarks and dragons.

[StannisBamfatheon]

:crying:

I hope GRRM doesn't take Stannis out of the game prematurely. He has set it up for Stannis to have some form of a happy ending, even if it ends in death, and it still seem realistic. *fingers crossed*

I completely agree, Stannis has one of the most transformative arcs of anyone in the series. I think he definitely will get a heroes end. But i'm a lil' biased. In my gut I just see some sort of sacrificial/matyr action defending the realm he's bound by duty to defend, whether it be against the Others or some other Iron throne pretender.

[houseHB]

Keeping Calm and killing Bolton's and Frey's