The GNC will not come to pass and if it does it will dishonor the North forever

[Ser Greg of House House]

The OP assumes northmen, unlike all the other people in Westeros, are incapable of scheming and wanting their own kingdom. Make no mistake. Robb had no "right" to call himself King and he did. If it was all about "honor" he should have supported Stannis from the start.

[Newstar]

The OP assumes northmen, unlike all the other people in Westeros, are incapable of scheming and wanting their own kingdom.

This. If ADWD taught us one thing, it's that the Northerners can be just as duplicitous, cunning and ruthless as the Southerners.

[Joe Pine]

The OP assumes northmen, unlike all the other people in Westeros, are incapable of scheming and wanting their own kingdom. Make no mistake. Robb had no "right" to call himself King and he did. If it was all about "honor" he should have supported Stannis from the start.

Good shout.

The GNC, such as it may exist is a loose grouping that want rid of Roose and Ramsay, it's unlikely they've a view on Stannis or will want rid of him until they get a Stark at Winterfell and sort out the Freys for the Red Wedding.

Stannis can help with both those things and I'd think the Northmen are pragmatic enough to think, 'this guys screwed anyway if he's after the iron throne, so lets help him whilst it suits us.'

If Stannis thinks he can lead a Northmen /Wilding army to invade the south, then as a minimum he must tolerate the old gods.

[Rheagar Prime]

i'm with you but i do believe the north can and will play dirty but i just don't see a segregated kingdom after the real threat is known to everyone. That theory assumes jon is even willing to be king jusst because robb named him his heir doesn't mean he will take it. Wouldn't even surprise me if jon turns it down assuming he lives after the second long night.

Still i do agree its a noce theory i like how the north are back stabbers in it, but like many theories it seems some fans take it as fact already just like the whole aegon being fake or who septa lemore is. Still it makes the board more fun

[Pyrrhus]

Good shout.

The GNC, such as it may exist is a loose grouping that want rid of Roose and Ramsay, it's unlikely they've a view on Stannis or will want rid of him until they get a Stark at Winterfell and sort out the Freys for the Red Wedding.

Stannis can help with both those things and I'd think the Northmen are pragmatic enough to think, 'this guys screwed anyway if he's after the iron throne, so lets help him whilst it suits us.'

If Stannis thinks he can lead a Northmen /Wilding army to invade the south, then as a minimum he must tolerate the old gods.

Which he does.

Stannis - "Half my army is made up of unbelievers. I will have no burnings. Pray harder."

[Pearlthegirl]

I believe that some of the early parts of the GNC are more than likely going to happen, such as the Manderly forces assisting Stannis' men in defeating the Freys on the ice. I also think it's highly likely that some members of Stannis' force accompany the Manderly men back to Winterfell dressed in Frey gear in order to trick Roose/Ramsay into believing Stannis is dead by taking his sword as well. Due to these actions, at least one, if not both, Bolton men will die after sending the Pink Letter.

From here though, the variables start to shift around for this, IMO. If the conspiracy is Jon-centric, then the news of his "death"(if he's dead, otherwise he's seriously injured) is going to have to make it's way south to Winterfell. We the readers may be pretty sure that Jon will come back to life, but in-universe that conspiracy is shot to hell simply because people are saying he's dead/seriously wounded. Not to mention that travel if Jon had been 100% healthy would have been pretty difficult in the first place, along with the fact that he has his own problems at the Wall right now, from the Eastwatch men reporting dead things in the water, to keeping the alliance with the wildlings together. Yeah, Jon was going to march on Winterfell at the end of ADWD, but even then it would have taken him a good amount of time to get there, where other non-Jon variables exist(the trial of Theon, the impending arrival of Rickon, etc.)

Plus, as some have already said, I can not realistically see Jon straight up shunning an ally due to all the information that he is now aware of. There's no way that Jon,

1. Jumps ahead of Rickon, Bran, Sansa, or Arya to be Lord of Winterfell/King in the North. While I do believe that Jon is the best suited member of the Stark family to be the next head of the house, Jon is too much like Ned to do this to his siblings/cousins.

2. Does not do everything he can to help Stannis win. Remember, Jon is pissed at everyone that harmed his family, from Lannisters to Boltons, Freys to Greyjoys. Stannis is, essentially, Jon's piece in the Game right now, following his suggestions to achieve the best outcome. Plus, while they may not be chest-bumping bros, they do at least respect each other. Again, Jon is Ned Stark 2.0, and nowhere in their similarities do we see any inclination that Jon would harm Stannis. Stannis saved the Watch and was the reason for the Watch to get its own loan from the Iron Bank.

Here's what I can see happening: Boltons thrown out of Winterfell, Stannis is welcomed to Winterfell by the northmen. Rickon shows up along with Davos and Shaggydog to prove he's legitimate. Jon gets Caesared at the Wall. News reaches Winterfell. Jon either recovers or is revived and heads to Winterfell after hearing of Stannis' victory to plan the defense of the North. He's offered Winterfell, but rejects, stating that he will only be Rickon's castellan.

He may be Lord/King in all but name, but technically, he's doing what is allowed in the Watch vows. He's holding no lands or taking any titles, and can use his new position to further the Watch's chance of success. Rickon can't kneel to Stannis since he's not, technically, the Lord/King yet since he's a minor, so Stannis has to continue with his newfound way of winning the throne, by saving the realm.

The North follows Jon because he's BOTH LC of the Watch and Rickon's castellan, which is only possible because of how badly the Starks are doing. They need an adult male to rally around, yet that same person refuses to leave the Watch because the Stark words are coming true: Winter is Coming, along with the great threat to the realm.

TL;DR-The GNC works, but Stannis is not expelled/killed. Jon becomes de facto ruler of the North, including the Watch since he's only Rickon's castellan.

Sorry for the long post, everyone.

Exactly. Can't we all just get along?

[ejhawman]

Good opening analysis. The fact that the rest of the North doesn't really know/believe the Others are coming is a nitpick. I don't think the full-blown GNC is quite a solid theory; the Northerners want their vengeance but are not organized or coordinated about it (yet).

Stannis will get a good measure of vengeance for them, taking down the Boltons. The BWB is working on the Freys, but the big man himself, Walder, and most of his heirs will fall to the Walkers. And after the series time frame, the north will need repopulation anyway... who will remember the RW?

[Ramsay Gimp]

The GNC also posits that these Northern Houses who have been desolated are all conspiring toward a common goal, and no word has leaked out to Stannis, the Boltons, or the Iron Throne.

In a recent GNC thread the OP was making the case that House Dustin was working against Roose, and used the quiet conversation between Lord Stout (a Dustin bannerman) and someone else at Ramsay's wedding as evidence. So not only do the powerful lords all know about the conspiracy, but so do their vassals? And Roose Bolton of all people is falling for it?

[The Sunset King]

Which he does.

Stannis - "Half my army is made up of unbelievers. I will have no burnings. Pray harder."

Additionally, the looming conflict between the rising Faith MIlitant and the followers of other religions will greatly reduce incentives for members of the minority faiths to bleed each other. In fact, speculation about the near-term nature of religious schisms in TWOW present a more compelling argument that the religious divide between the Riverlands and the North will be a focal point of strife. It is entirely realistic, in fact, more likely than not, that the sparrows will establish command centers in the Riverlands beyond their presence in Harrenhal. Regardless of whether the North backs Stannis or crowns someone, religious factors will sharpen along the natural geographical barrier.

[Zman1863]

The OP assumes northmen, unlike all the other people in Westeros, are incapable of scheming and wanting their own kingdom. Make no mistake. Robb had no "right" to call himself King and he did. If it was all about "honor" he should have supported Stannis from the start.

Robb wanted his actions to have a footing in law. At the time he had no idea of the incest and so thought neither Stannis or Renly had a claim to the throne. But the legal solution in that scenario was to either bend the knee to Joff or overthrow him and set Tommen in his place. Both options were as unacceptable as the extralegal claims of the Baratheon bros. The formation of a separate kingdom emerged as a way out of the conundrum. I think if the incest knowledge had reached Robb sooner he would have reached the same conclusion Ned did and concluded Stannis was the legal heir.

And I agree that the Northerners can be self interested like everyone else and capable of plots. I just don't see any evidence that they are committed to the idea of a separate kingdom, an idea that first arose out of necessity rather than long simmering sectional tensions. In fact, Manderly's stated intent to Davos reinforces the point that Northerners are just as self interested as anyone else. It's evident that Manderly has demonstrated loyalty to the Starks. But it's also evident that he stands to gain personally by being the person who retrieves the Stark heir and delivers him his birthright. And he protects his interests by offering Stannis fealty in return.

[SwordInDaDarkness]

I don't feel like the OP is coming from a very logical place at all. Most of the anti-GNC arguments seems like they are about Stannis not getting the respect that he deserves for the things he might do for the North. Plus, we don't even know how much Stannis will end up doing.

A lot of the GNC seems probable. My only question is how deep it goes and how interconnected the plans are.

The opposition keeps mentioning the impending Other invasion. Can we blame the Northern Lords if they think that that the ice monsters of an 8000 year old legend are not coming back, much less are even real?

What they do know is that the Starks have been ruling them for 8000 years and the Starks ruled well. It will no doubt inspire fierce loyalty. The problem with the North is that even if they accept Stannis as King and have him place a Stark in Winterfell to rule them while Stan sits the IT, they would be ruled on Stannis' stringent terms. Whoever rules will not have the same liberty in the matters of the North as when Ned ruled under Robert or when the earlier Stark lords ruled under the Targaryens. The Targaryens left the North alone because they couldn't be bothered to get up there and enforce their rules themselves but there's slim chance that Stannis won't come riding up the North demanding heads and limbs if his words weren't taken as gospel. Plus they just declared themselves an independent kingdom 2 years ago. They won't let that go easily.

Some people up-thread mentioned a large Lannister invasion of the North, come spring. Who, might I ask, will send this army? Tommen? Myrcella? Cersei? Or some other person who will likely be dead before winter is over? If the North is going to be attacked, it will be from the sky. When the dragons roast armies, it won't matter if it's 200, 2000 or 20000 strong.

[Little Bird of Varys]

I can not believe I read 22 pages of this thread for when I finally get to login without knowing what to say.

Stannis will die sooner or later. I do not see him sitting IT. But also do not see (nor want) to turn Jon "King of Westeros" or North. I believe there is a conspiracy by some Lords of the North, but not something as complex and wonderful as many imagine, is something dirty and simple. There is a support for Stannis, maybe the Glover, but is not as strong as loyalty to Stark, what will count is the events in Wall. If Jon actually die, the North will act in a more desperate and crude

[direwienerdog]

When exactly does Stannis talk about securing food for Winter? I was under the impression that he used his Iron Bank loan to hire sellswords. Wasn't Jon the one who took out a loan specifically to feed the Watch and wildlings?

Yes Jon was. And I suspect the IB is going to monitor the situation through Tycho.

[direwienerdog]

it's not meant as a way to portray Stannis as a wonderboy. Jon took a loan from the IB that he can't even imagin how he is going to pay, then invites more mouths. Stannis is the one that can actually afford something like this. Ditching Stannis is losing the blanck check from the IB. Jon's loan can't sustain more then what he bargained for with Tycho. Jon and Stannis simply do not have the same amount of credit.

First of all, no burning of wierwoods so far in the North. He burned the sept on Dragonstone, which, according to GRRM, is Stannis' private property and therefor his right. So was the burning in Storm's End. On the Wall Mel offers Jon to burn the wierwood and Stannis will accept that as Jon's way to take service with Stannis without being a deserter.

Second of all, the sellswords are either going to help man the forts on the Wall, or free up Northmen to do so, or fight in the south. Either way, Stannis' priority is the fight for the Dawn, but he is also keeping tabs on what happens when that part is over. He and the North still have enemies to the south

.

1. I was talking about the south as still a Lannister entity.

2. No need for that tone. It takes away from the rather peacefull discussion we were having.

3. Moat Cailin's ability to stave off enemies is overhyped, especially in a post-conquest era. The Reach alone, after the WOT5K, can muster more then what both the Reach and the Westerlands took to the Field of Fire. The Tyrell Fleet can simply dump an army anywhere in the North. Once Winter is over, take an army, embark on the fleet, pick a spot where it's easy enough to ferry men from ships to land by boats (like pretty much any part of the coast where there are fishing villages), and presto. You just succeded in landing an army behind Moat Calilin.

I don't think you can just dump an army anywhere in the North or there would be more harbor towns.

[IRON BANK]

What's fluff is thinking the northerners give a damn about Stannis or his rights or his claim. He's a means to an end. That's it.

ETA: I would also like to point out that the idea that the northerners are planning to attack Stannis and kill him is not in any way included in the GNC theory and acting like it is is pretty disingenuous and unfair. You can dispute the theory if you want but I'd appreciate it if you didn't misrepresent what it says. The idea is that if Stannis wins, they tell him he can have the Iron Throne but he's not the King in the North. Simple as.

True: The GNC will take place after Stannis is long gone. 2. If Stannis happens to live long enough to see the GNC it will be surprising.3. If Jon is tutored by Stannis and or is so Co bro love with him as stated in the op, and if Something were to happen to Stannis wh do you think the Northern Lords will follow. Shireen, yeah right. Stannis in No way will make it to the end of the series; therefore opening the way for northern independence. (any one of these things could happen)

2 Stannis can not even win the throne w/o northern support, most of his major houses w/in the storm lands are occupied by Aegon or surrounded by Lannister forces. He is not in a good position to tell any one what to do.

[Nyrhex]

I don't think you can just dump an army anywhere in the North or there would be more harbor towns.

You don't need a harbor to land an army. Ask Victarion. If you have longships you can just beach them. If you have larger ships you can use smaller boats to ferry between ships and land. The insistence to ignore this very basic solution to the "impregnable" Moat Cailin is mind buggling.

[Free Northman]

You don't need a harbor to land an army. Ask Victarion. If you have longships you can just beach them. If you have larger ships you can use smaller boats to ferry between ships and land. The insistence to ignore this very basic solution to the "impregnable" Moat Cailin is mind buggling.

This is so often touted as a reason for the North's vulnerability. However, Martin has addressed this directly long ago. In an SSM - which I can't be bothered to look for now - he was asked directly why no one had thought of circumventing Moat Cailin before like Balon Greyjoy did, in the 8000 years prior to the War of the Five Kings.

Martin's response was: Who says they didn't? 8000 years is a long time.

So the bottomline is, the North has been invaded by ship many times in the past. The Arryns did it in the 1000 year war with the North, when they captured the Wolf's Den. The Ironborn did it in Dagon Greyjoy's time 100 years ago, when the She Wolves of Winterfell took place.

Moat Cailin has no doubt been circumvented many times. But as Martin clearly demonstrated over the course of 8000 years, no foreign army was able to conquer or even hold parts of the North for an extended period of time. Clearly, a naval campaign against the North is not viable.

Winter, the size and wildness of the North, the danger of the Crannogmen along the causeway, treacherous seas, and the length of supply lines makes conquest of the North impossible for foreign invaders.

[direwienerdog]

You don't need a harbor to land an army. Ask Victarion. If you have longships you can just beach them. If you have larger ships you can use smaller boats to ferry between ships and land. The insistence to ignore this very basic solution to the "impregnable" Moat Cailin is mind buggling.

Your assuming there are beaches and no cliffs along the shore line? I envision the North' s shore to be high cliffs except where the harbor towns are.

Not flat with a lot of rivers and delta like terrain.

[JoeJoe]

What does it take to keep an army of 80, 000 feed and equipped. No time in medieval warfare was there a fleet to transport such vast numbers by fleet. the expense of a navy is vast and to mount a sustained naval invasion on the north is not viable. the ironborn invasion of the north was a boon to only the lannisters.

[Free Northman]

Your assuming there are beaches and no cliffs along the shore line? I envision the North' s shore to be high cliffs except where the harbor towns are.

Not flat with a lot of rivers and delta like terrain.

Foreign armies can be landed all along the North's coastline. All you need is a little beach or cove on a 1000 mile long stretch of coast. I'm sure they exist.

The point is, even if troops are landed, this still does not make a Northern naval assault feasible.