Fill in the Gaping Plot Hole

[Aderyn the Sly]

We know they wanted to invade the North and repeatedly tried.

Do we? What's in the North that they would want anyways? No precious metal mines like in the Reach, less fertile land for farming, and horrible winters that would be hard for them to live through since they were used to a different climate. And even if they tried to invade by sea, they didn't have maps of the North I'm guessing, or at least not accurate ones, so landing on a rocky shoreline (where there even is a shoreline you can land on and not just cliffs) which could be hundreds of miles from the nearest town with few supplies and not in an easy position to get supplies either. Sounds like more trouble than it's worth. And Moat Cailin would be better provisioned and had plenty of men if all they had to do was defend.

[Aderyn the Sly]

Well he did kill his father so that might wash that part clean.

That would totally make me trust him less. If he killed his father then in my mind at least I would be wondering if there was a line he wouldn't cross to get what he wants.

[ejhawman]

From the OP: 40k ironmen?

Not hardly. They don't seem to have all that many to me. Certainly they only had a few thousand at most, reduced to a few hundred by AFFC, in various places about the North. Their major strength wasn't committed until then, when much of their main fleet - 100 ships - followed Vic toward Dany, and the main mass of men followed Euron to raid the Reach.

Firing arrows 700 feet up: yeah, high winds. Got to be that. Or gravity is weaker on Planetos. Which might explain how a 700 foot pile of ice keeps steep-sided for 8000 years instead of compressing into a giant speed bump.

I doubt the wildlings have all that many dragonbone bows. Heck, muskets would porbably have little force at that height.

Tyrion not going after LF: Probably on his to-do list, but other things got in the way. He wasn't ruthless enough to have Bronn kill him on a dark night in KL until after he was framed for Joffrey's murder. Nowadays he probably is a bit less considerate of certain niceties of civilized behavior and will find ways to smash insects sooner rather than later.

[Former Lord of Winterfell]

when tyrion came up on the lannister camp and went to see tywin, it was obvious tywin would not care WHY catelyn captured him and sent him to trial. he doesn't ask. if tyrion would have told him it was because littlefinger lied to her about the dagger the catspaw used to try and kill bran in winterfell, i'm sure tywin wouldn't have been surprised. nor really care. tywin seems almost disappointed tyrion didn't really die.

I don't think it's quite so certain Tywin wouldn't have cared. It wouldn't have made any difference as to his fight against the Starks, but I imagine it would have made a huge difference in terms of his treatment of LF. If Tywin had learned that LF is going around lying about the Lannisters for the purpose of kicking off a war that could easily have gone the wrong way, I don't think he would have ignored such a threat.

[ejhawman]

Renly having a force of one hundred thousand men and being able to properly feed, and control all of them.

He didn't have them all that long, probably a week or so fully assembled, and didn't expect to have to keep them together for more than a month, with plans to march on KL and decide matters by then. Logistics and discipline would indeed have become issues after that.

[dotheknifefight]

That could be explained largely as a matter of logistics. The South was much more heavily populated, with better roads, land that is more easily cultivated, and much wealthier etc.. An army that landed in the South could quickly seize the means to keep itself supplied and in the field. Land in the north, and you're probably not going to have a decent port, there are fewer roads to facilitate movement, so you're likely going to be stuck on some rocky shore and have to slog your way inland over a poor land, with supplies always being a problem. And, there was no great wealth in the North, so the risk of an unsuccesful and potentially disasterous landing (if things go badly, retreat would be a nightmare) doesn't seem to have much of an off ng benefit.

But once you've taken the south, the risks of attacking north are greatly reduced because you have the Kingsroad and all the wealth of the South to support your army, and an easy route of retreat if things go wrong. But if you can't take Moat Cailen, you're stuck.

the only reason the ironborn were successful in taking the north was all the men robb took south. so you can't use the example of asha and the ironborn's success here. remember, also, when the andals came, the first men had the children of the forest to help them.

according to westerosi legend, the children of the forest made the sea rise up to cut westeros in half (i'm guessing this resulted in the neck). dont remember if this was during the andal invasion period but i could see how that would have helped the north's defense.

could this have been the same tidal event that struck the ironborn's sea dragon palace, which ironborn believe was sent by the drowned god?

[Ran]

Yes, 40,000 for the Ironborn is quite clearly wrong. The number is, at the very most, half that. And I suspect it's rather less than that.

Firing arrows 700 feet up: yeah, high winds. Got to be that.

GRRM says as much in ADwD, I believe. Which, it must be said, was something I suspect he inserted after critiques about it. ;)

Or gravity is weaker on Planetos.

Nope, no difference. As much as he can, George prefers to keep the physics of Westeros and our world the same.

Which might explain how a 700 foot pile of ice keeps steep-sided for 8000 years instead of compressing into a giant speed bump.

Magic. There's not just ice in them there walls.

[A Bong of Ice and Fire]

I've always been kind of bothered about how Littlefinger's "puppets" always act exactly like he expects them to. This when the whole theme of his existence is that you can never trust anyone.

Examples here are the Kettleblacks, Dontos, everyone involved in the Joffrey poisoning scheme, Lyn Corbray and the various other people he has bribed and manipulated to serve his plots.

The reality is that he operates in such a high risk game, against players with a degree of absolute power that he lacks due to him not being the Lord of a Great House, that all it would take is for one of these puppets to turn cloak on him for any one of the Lannisters, Tyrells, Royces or whoever else he has schemed with or against to just decide to end him.

And they could do it without any consequences whatsoever. A Great Lord could walk up to Littlefinger in front of the entire royal court and slit his throat and likely face no consequences whatsoever.

This is one area where I felt that the show demonstrated more realism than the books. That scene where Cersei has Littlefinger grabbed by her guards in broad daylight and have them at the point of cutting his throat at a whim. That demonstrated the massive gulf in power between the Great Nobles and a schemer like Littlefinger.

And considering that he has hundreds of threads in his plots, with scores of puppets that could at any time decide to ditch him for a more powerful benefactor, or get caught out due to being a drunkard (Dontos), or a self serving asshole (the Kettleblacks).

All it takes is a whispered word from one of them, and Littlefinger is toast.

So in short, I find Littlefinger unrealistic, and his skill and intelligence is vastly inflated by Martin's liberal doses of "schemer's plot armor".

This is a good point. However, I do think that GRRM has introduced a crack in LF's plot armor, and one of his minions will be causing serious trouble for him soon by not behaving according to LF's plans.

Remember Brienne was not the only one searching for Sansa. The Mad Mouse was a clever knight she met on the road also searching.

It turns out he's a much better detective than Brienne, because at the end of AFfC we find this guy in LF's household guard. Obviously (it seems) he weaseled his way into LF's service in order to get to Sansa.

[ejhawman]

Shadow babies not being used over and over again. If Stannis can't be the father, surely someone else from his army of thousands can donate some sperm?

It's pretty well explained in the text the power for these summons comes out of Stannis' own constitution, and after the second one, taking SE, his health is endangered. Mel could probably get her hands on some of Robert's bastards for more magics (hence Davos gets at least one beyond her reach to save him) but Stannis is mindful that he also has to be seen by his men winning the IT by his own prowess. Though that can be finessed: target enemies not generally known, and in secret.

Ah, well. Moot now. Mel is stuck at the Wall and Stan has only his own strength.

[ejhawman]

Yes, 40,000 for the Ironborn is quite clearly wrong. The number is, at the very most, half that. And I suspect it's rather less than that.

GRRM says as much in ADwD, I believe. Which, it must be said, was something I suspect he inserted after critiques about it. ;)

Nope, no difference. As much as he can, George prefers to keep the physics of Westeros and our world the same.

Magic. There's not just ice in them there walls.

All tongue-in-cheek, of course. All this is well-known. And I estimate the Ironmen have 15k disposable men at most. Though I don't think all that many have been lost so far. The Essosi Expeditionary Force and the raid on the Reach will seriously see them depleted.

[dotheknifefight]

I don't think it's quite so certain Tywin wouldn't have cared. It wouldn't have made any difference as to his fight against the Starks, but I imagine it would have made a huge difference in terms of his treatment of LF. If Tywin had learned that LF is going around lying about the Lannisters for the purpose of kicking off a war that could easily have gone the wrong way, I don't think he would have ignored such a threat.

the starks did not raise their banners until after ned was taken into custody and their men murdered by jaime. should ned have been sent to the wall instead of beheaded, i don't think the war would have gone the way it did by any means. at the time when tyrion comes back from the eeyrie to tywin in the camp, i don't think tywin would have foreseen the consequences LF's lie would reap. and after AGOT, in hindsight, don't the characters usually blame the war on ned's beheading also?

[MotherAnduin]

It's pretty well explained in the text the power for these summons comes out of Stannis' own constitution, and after the second one, taking SE, his health is endangered. Mel could probably get her hands on some of Robert's bastards for more magics (hence Davos gets at least one beyond her reach to save him) but Stannis is mindful that he also has to be seen by his men winning the IT by his own prowess. Though that can be finessed: target enemies not generally known, and in secret.

Ah, well. Moot now. Mel is stuck at the Wall and Stan has only his own strength.

Mel offers Davos a chance to be a donor. She also strongly hints at Jon being a donor. If these two nobodies can donate, surely random red shirt from the army can as well? No one has to know what Mel does with the sperm...

[Consigliere]

Varys serving on the small council, working as the under gaoler as well as all his other guises for 17+ years and no one suspecting a thing.

[zamieo]

Bronn slicing Littlefingers throat in a dark alley hurts Tyrion how exactly?

As the greatest Master of Coin in the realm, in a time where every coin was needed, what would he gain from killing Littlefinger?

[Former Lord of Winterfell]

at the time when tyrion comes back from the eeyrie to tywin in the camp, i don't think tywin would have foreseen the consequences LF's lie would reap. and after AGOT, in hindsight, don't the characters usually blame the war on ned's beheading also?

The whole reason Tywin was in the field in the first place was because Tyrion had been siezed. That led to Clegane's depredations, the attack on Riverrun, Jaime attacking Ned, etc.. Even if Ned had been sent to the Wall, and the war otherwise de-escalated, the mere fact that LF lied for the purpose of implicating a Lannister in a murder would/should have pissed off Tywin to no end. To look at it another way, let's say Tyrion had told Tywin. Can you imagine Tywin shrugging off LF's clear attempt at manipulation with a "no big deal" outlook, and no punishment/investigation at all?

[Morienthar]

As the greatest Master of Coin in the realm, in a time where every coin was needed, what would he gain from killing Littlefinger?

Gold,from the people who provided gold for all the coin.

[Fat Mac]

Stabbing Littlefinger in the chest in front of the court was an extreme example. Tyrion being as smart as he is would of course not have needed to resort to such a crude approach. But Bron offing Littlefinger in a dark alley, no one the wiser, with no connections to Tyrion? Easy as pie.

Why would LF use dark alleys? The man is pretty careful, and I doubt would walk about the city even unprotected.

As we know, he demanded a pretty sizable guard to go and broker an agreement with the Tyrells. I doubt he'd walk in a city that was starving and known for it's bad reputation by himself. Especially if he was going to and from his brothels. So, even if Bronn could get to him, it wouldn't be pretty, and I think word would get out quick. Bronn isn't the type to fight battles he thinks he may not win.

Gold,from the people who provided gold for all the coin.

I don't have the books with me so sorry if I'm mistaken, but I'm pretty sure no one has a good idea just exactly where LF's gold comes from. They just kind of let him do his thing and benefit from the results. I think if you kill him, the money disappears (mainly confirming that he's been lying about all the gold to begin with)

[Morienthar]

I don't have the books with me so sorry if I'm mistaken, but I'm pretty sure no one has a good idea just exactly where LF's gold comes from. They just kind of let him do his thing and benefit from the results. I think if you kill him, the money disappears (mainly confirming that he's been lying about all the gold to begin with)

That was just a general statement,Most of the valuable coins are gold,i.e Stags and Dragons.

Most of the Gold i.e the metal comes from Lannister mines.

[Barty]

I find it implausible the North could have stood off Andal invasions for six thousand years at Moat Cailin, given the North's endless coastline.

We know the Andals had ships. We know they invaded the South, in exactly that way, quite successfully.

We know they wanted to invade the North and repeatedly tried.

We know ships certainly can land on the Northern coast, because that's exactly what Asha does.

We know the Andals had steel weapons and the First Men did not, which certainly would have helped them succeed in any such invasion.

We never hear of any fleet of ships in the North that might have served as some sort of defense, except the one burned by Brandon the Burner.

My flimsy, BS, makes-no-sense explanation is that for six thousand years, the Andals were always defeated by horrible storms the CotF magically sent at invading fleets in retaliation for what happened in the South.

The North did have a fleet before Brandon the Burner which would make any landing difficult. Plus the weather is awful - any invasion in winter or late summer is out since the southerners would basically freeze to death(see Stannis' army outside WF). Also the North is huge - meaning any invader would have to march long distances in enemy territory to engage the Northern forces, their supply lines(which are already iffy since a single storm could basically destroy their entire fleet) would become even more stretched. The Northerners luring the larger Andal army away from the coasts and then cutting of the supply lines could basically end the invasion without a battle being fought.

And most importantly - I dont think the Andal invasion was a purely military invasion. It was probably a more cultural invasion - no doubt there were wars fought between Andals and the First Men in the south but the Andals did not invade with the aim of wiping out the First Men. The Gardener Kings were First Men(since they trace their descent to Garth GreenHand), The Storm Kings were First Men, The Lannisters had First men blood as well,House Dayne, BlackWood, Royce etc are all First Men houses in the south(deep Andal Territory).

So once the Andals had settled in the south and since it is clear they really did not have anything against the First men - they did not have any reason to come together to launch a massive invasion of the North did they??

Or I could be completely wrong and The Kings of Winter were complete Badasses who beat back every Andal invasion from the sea and the south.

[FC_Lymond]

On the one hand Robb and Catelyn are said to be working hard to rescue Arya and Sansa from their captivity in KL.

On the other hand, they do nothing to try to contact them or collect any information about their whereabouts or well-being.

Only way for part two to make any sense is if they are not trying to help them at all.