Show us that Aegon VI is really Aegon

[Arya kiddin']

Tyrion thinks that shortly after finding out about Young Griff's supposed identity though.

He may sit the iron throne, for however short a while, and technically that would make him King. But that wouldn't make him real Aegon.

[Mountain Tribesman]

Except that the baby switch happened while the Mountain and Ser Armory Lorch were already scaling the walls of Maegor's Holdfast. Weeks after Rhaegar died and mere minutes before Aegon's face connected to a solid wall.

I don't recall seeing any details as to the exact moment of the baby switch. What I do remember is that the actual smuggling to Essos took place after the fall of KL.

[The guy from the Vale]

He may sit the iron throne, for however short a while, and technically that would make him King. But that wouldn't make him real Aegon.

Yes; but enthroning Young Griff has not been mentioned or even been thought about yet; it's something Tyrion considers only after that revelation.

[OnionAhaiReborn]

But that's under the assumption that it was always a long-drawn out plan. It might have just been a gambit to get Aegon out of KL or buy enough time to clear out of Westeros. After the head allowed, they could have compiled the plan from there, being able to afford more time and elaboration.

It's under the assumption that the only plausible reason to even do a baby swap in the first place, and it's just barely plausible to begin with, is that people will believe Aegon to be dead. No one is going believe Aegon to be dead if an obvious fake is killed, so without the baby being unrecognizable, which is unforeseeable, the bare plausibility of the plan breaks down.

ETA:

wrt to the "bad writing/double reveal" argument: I never felt 'Aegon is alive' was really presented as a "reveal." Tyrion's bullshit alarm is going off to such a degree that I felt it was presented as an open question, from the beginning of the 'reveal,' whether Aegon was real or fake. I didn't piece together all of the evidence for him being fake/a Blackfyre on my own, but I certainly viewed it as an open question, and nowhere near a shocking 'Aegon lives' kind of reveal.

[Arya kiddin']

Yes; but enthroning Young Griff has not been mentioned or even been thought about yet; it's something Tyrion considers only after that revelation.

But he is Rhaegar's heir, ofc JonCon will seek to enthrone him right? It does not has to be worded out.

[Light a wight tonight]

Incontrovertable proof that Aegon is a Targ. He wasn't burned leading the assault on Storms End the way Loras was at Dragonstone. This means that he's fireproof, and therefore a Targ. :blink:

[Gar Weg Wun Sygerrik]

It's under the assumption that the only plausible reason to even do a baby swap in the first place, and it's just barely plausible to begin with, is that people will believe Aegon to be dead. No one is going believe Aegon to be dead if an obvious fake is killed, so without the baby being unrecognizable, which is unforeseeable, the bare plausibility of the plan breaks down.

But it does not break down if you assume their goal is to delay the discovery. As soon as the Lannistes realized they had been duped they would have stopped all out going ships, and set up check points at the city gates. If the smuggled Aegon had not left the city at that point he would probably not be leaving at all.

Ask yourself this. What do they lose by subbing in a fake Aegon assuming the mother is aware? If you're already ok with putting a child in such danger you have absolutely nothing to lose, and only time to gain. As I said before, the fact that the child's face was smashed in was not required for the plan if you consider that they only wanted to buy some time.

[Arya kiddin']

Incontrovertable proof that Aegon is a Targ. He wasn't burned leading the assault on Storms End the way Loras was at Dragonstone. This means that he's fireproof, and therefore a Targ. :blink:

OMG, why didn't I consider it? Ofc you have more experience with fire lighting all the wights you have. :bowdown:

[James Arryn]

It's under the assumption that the only plausible reason to even do a baby swap in the first place, and it's just barely plausible to begin with, is that people will believe Aegon to be dead. No one is going believe Aegon to be dead if an obvious fake is killed, so without the baby being unrecognizable, which is unforeseeable, the bare plausibility of the plan breaks down.

Again, A baby buys you time. You might only be needing a few hours, which fits with the last minute desperation feel of the whole idea. Remember Varys: people see what they expect to see. A fair haired baby in Elua's arms with his sister in the room...who exactly is going to be checking too closely in the heat of the moment.

Later, after head smash, you adjust because the situation allows for it.

[James Arryn]

But it does not break down if you assume their goal is to delay the discovery. As soon as the Lannistes realized they had been duped they would have stopped all out going ships, and set up check points at the city gates. If the smuggled Aegon had not left the city at that point he would probably not be leaving at all.

Ask yourself this. What do they lose by subbing in a fake Aegon assuming the mother is aware? If you're already ok with putting a child in such danger you have absolutely nothing to lose, and only time to gain. As I said before, the fact that the child's face was smashed in was not required for the plan if you consider that they only wanted to buy some time.

How long did it take LF to get Sansa out? And Varys >>> LF when it comes to the secret byways of KL.

[Balerion06]

I think him being real simply makes for a better character arc for Dany.

Ever since Drogo, Viserys and Rhaego died, Dany has only had her identity as the last Targaryen heir, the one who will restore her ancient dynasty, to drive and motivate her through all the hardship, grief and turmoil she's had to face. That identity has become intrinsic to everything she does and everything she plans to do.

So imagine the incredible internal conflict we get to see when she reaches Westeros and discovers Aegon's already winning, and more importantly, isn't willing to share. Now she has to answer the question: does she kneel before beloved Rhaegar's son? Or does she convince herself that she is the rightful heir to the throne simply because she has three WMDs that prove beyond a doubt that she is a Targaryen?

Wouldn't it be ironically poetic if she convinced herself that Aegon was a Blackfyre and thus must be destroyed by pointing to all the evidence that he could be one (the Golden Company, improbable escape) all in order to preserve the identity she's carved out for herself that's kept her going for so long?

Granted, the same story could work even with Aegon being fake, but I think it would lose a lot of its impact for readers if he was; fAegon just becomes another idiot in a long line of idiots who opposed Dany only to become barbecue.

[Gar Weg Wun Sygerrik]

How long did it take LF to get Sansa out? And Varys >>> LF when it comes to the secret byways of KL.

I ask you again, what do they have to lose?

[The guy from the Vale]

But he is Rhaegar's heir, ofc JonCon will seek to enthrone him right? It does not has to be worded out.

The pretense, until that point, was that Young Griff was Griff's son though. As long as that pretense stood, the entire enterprise made little sense to Tyrion.

[OnionAhaiReborn]

But it does not break down if you assume their goal is to delay the discovery. As soon as the Lannistes realized they had been duped they would have stopped all out going ships, and set up check points at the city gates. If the smuggled Aegon had not left the city at that point he would probably not be leaving at all.

Again, A baby buys you time. You might only be needing a few hours, which fits with the last minute desperation feel of the whole idea. Remember Varys: people see what they expect to see. A fair haired baby in Elua's arms with his sister in the room...who exactly is going to be checking too closely in the heat of the moment.

Later, after head smash, you adjust because the situation allows for it.

The city is being sacked, the Red Keep stormed, I hardly imagine the Lannisters were allowing any free movement in or out of the city that they could prevent to begin with. Finding a particular baby doesn't change this equation or buy any time. To believe otherwise we have to imagine that Tywin was strictly controlling all movement out of the city until the moment he heard Aegon was dead, at which point he decided to stop doing so. It doesn't wash. Varys is able to get people out in this situation anyway because Varys is very good at this kind of thing, as James Arryn helpfully points out:

How long did it take LF to get Sansa out? And Varys >>> LF when it comes to the secret byways of KL.

[James Arryn]

I ask you again, what do they have to lose?

I'm not getting you. Are you assuming the face smash was part of the conspiracy? Why?

[Arya kiddin']

The pretense, until that point, was that Young Griff was Griff's son though. As long as that pretense stood, the entire enterprise made little sense to Tyrion.

No, Tyrion had figured it out till then. Why else would he say that wonders and whatever come to greet the oncoming of Kings...

[James Arryn]

No, Tyrion had figured it out till then. Why else would he say that wonders and whatever come to greet the oncoming of Kings...

That could be read both ways, tbh. He could mean a King is being birthed tonight in the sense that a pretender is being made into a king.

[Gar Weg Wun Sygerrik]

I'm not getting you. Are you assuming the face smash was part of the conspiracy? Why?

No I'm saying there is no risk to a baby swap. In the worst case if they find out the baby is a fake immediately you lost nothing. On the other hand if the baby swap gives you an extra hour, all the better. The face being smashed in just allows them to keep a secret until they want to disclose it. It could just be incredibly lucky.

[James Arryn]

No I'm saying there is no risk to a baby swap. In the worst case if they find out the baby is a fake immediately you lost nothing. On the other hand if the baby swap gives you an extra hour, all the better. The face being smashed in just allows them to keep a secret until they want to disclose it. It could just be incredibly lucky.

Oh, we're agreeing then. Lol, confusion.

[Arya kiddin']

That could be read both ways, tbh. He could mean a King is being birthed tonight in the sense that a pretender is being made into a king.

Yes, it is on the readers. I personally believe he had it figured. He figured out who Griff was as well.